DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
As a Wings fan, I'm pretty happy about this matchup. It isn't that I think Nashville will be a pushover. In fact, I think it will be a very difficult series. What I am thrilled about is Nashville is short plane ride from Detroit and road games will be start around 7PM my time instead of 10PM. You may be asking yourself, why is travel time such a big deal? Consider this. Last year the Wings had matchups with Calgary, San Jose and Edmonton. That's a lot of miles. It is especially significant when compared against teams from the East. For example, the New York Rangers could have travel plans involving New Jersey (bus ride), Philadelphia (bus ride) and Pittsburgh (short flight) all within the same time zone. Plus, those 10PM starts are brutal for me. One year the Wings played a triple overtime game against the Ducks. That game didn't end until almost 3AM. Makes it a bit tough to get up for work and actually think. If the Wings are going to reach the finals, there is going to be some travel involved. However, the less the better.
Detroit has a had a weird season jumping out to such a huge lead on the division and conference before faltering a bit during an 11 game stretch where they had injuries to their top 4 defensemen. They haven't had a significant game since early January. The players admitted that this has made it hard to stay focused for each contest. However, I think they have still played excellent hockey overall. During the course of the entire season they only had about 4 poorly played games. Its a huge credit to coach Babcock and the leadership on this team that they play hard every night.
The Wings have a solid defensive corp that stacks up with any unit in the league. The main reason Hasek and Osgood had such good GAA is because the defense in front of them allows very few shots and scoring chances. Looks like Stuart will return to the lineup making the defense even better. He brings a physical presence the Wings will definitely need in the coming weeks. Lidstrom and Kronwall both are threats to end up on the scoring sheet.
Up front the Wings have multiple scoring options. Beyond the superstars in Zetterberg and Datsyuk, they've got Holmstrom, Holmstrom II (Franzen), Hudler, Cleary, Filpulla who can all score. They are a few concerns about injuries but most appear to be getting healthy as the playoffs begin. Almost all the forwards are excellent on defense and the team has the best faceoff percentage in the league.
To all the critics who say the Wings are too old or too soft, I say you need to take a fresh look. This isn't the 2003 Wings any more. The age statistic is more than a bit skewed by the presence of Chelios (#6 defenseman), Drake (4th line) and Hasek. Their two superstars up front are still young and they've got an even younger crew coming into their own. Softness was the first thing Babcock addressed after losing out to Edmonton in his first season and he's done quite well. People may not know players like the "mule" (Franzen), Cleary or Samuelson but they are extremely hard works and aren't afraid to fight for the pucks or get a little "dirty".
The Wings have a deeper squad than any team in the playoffs. They can role 4 good lines without concern. Should injuries occur, there are tested players in waiting set to fill the holes. Many of the players who'll be healthy scratches would be playing on other rosters. Their backup goalie may actually be the better goalie this season.
Speaking of goaltending, that may just be the critical piece to the Wings success. Even with limited shots, the Wings goalies are going to have to perform well to succeed. Babcock appears set to got with Hasek for the duration and it is hard to blame him given Hasek's past playoff performances. However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got wonder if Osgood might be the better choice. Hasek is a fierce competitor and wouldn't accept the backup role quietly so it is certainly easier to go with him first. But Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform. I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for.
Oh, there is another team scheduled to be on the ice. Nashville has done an amazing job dealing with the overhaul of their roster in the last year. They should be commended for actually making in into the playoffs. They play very sound, disciplined hockey and have excellent coaching and a lot of hard-working, gritty players. They'll be best served to be extremely patient with the Wings and hope to cash in on the few miscues the Wings allow. Any chance of staging an upset rests with their ability to shutdown Zetterberg and Datysuk while getting superb goaltending. A fast start and a game 1 victory might be their only hope. They'll play the Wings tougher than expected but come up short because the Wings have much more depth and better secondary scoring.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
At the time of this writing, the first game in this series has been played and Calgary won it 3-2. The results of that game do not change my prediction or my analysis even if they do bode well for Calgary.
This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch. Its got everything that makes hockey fun to watch. You've got offensive stars with Calgary's Iginla and San Jose's Joe Thorton. You've hard hitting punishing checkers led by Calgary's Dion Phaneuf. Both teams feature superb workhorse goaltending with Kiprosoff and Nabakov. The men behind the bench, Keenan & Wilson, are among the more experienced in the NHL. You've got two clubs that have seriously underperformed in the last few playoff years with fans ready to get ugly if things don't turn out well. This is especially true in San Jose where a quick exit could result in Wilson getting fired despite several successful regular seasons and a well developed roster.
The intensity here should be amazing and game one didn't disappoint. Goals aren't going to come easy and neither team is going to go down easy. The goalie who performs best may just dictate the outcome as Kiprosoff did in game 1.
Where I think San Jose will prevail is scoring depth. Calgary doesn't have the secondary scoring that San Jose can roll. Adding defenseman Campbell at the trade deadline should give the Sharks an added dimension on the back end. Any chance Campbell has of sticking around San Jose for the long haul will depend on a successful playoff run.
Anything less than an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals will be seen as a disappointment in San Jose. That is tough expectations and one only two other teams face (Anaheim & Detroit). But both those teams have already won the cup in recent years and know what it takes to get over the hump. The journey begins with a tough matchup for San Jose and it won't get any easier. It should be a fun ride to watch.
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
As of this writing, game 1 in the series has been played with Colorado winning 3-2 in overtime. Certainly an outcome that was no surprise to me.
I haven't seen many of Minnesota games this season but I know their reputation. Above all else they are a sound defensive team. The play a style of hockey very similar to the neutral zone trap crap that New Jersey play to success for so many years. It makes for an extremely boring watch as scoring chances are minimized and 2-1 and 3-2 games are the norm. Minnesota tries to balance their defense with some timely scoring from skilled players like Gaborik. Along Gaborik has been given some additional freedom to be creative this year, he doesn't wander far from the Wild's defensive roots.
Colorado plays opportunistic hockey taking advantage of skill offensive playmakers and relying on strong goaltending over defense. This has been a problem at times for them this season as playmakers have been injured or their goalies have struggled. However, goaltending has been much stronger lately as Theodore has refound the form that made him successful years ago in Montreal and it is about time as he was being paid a bundle to ride the bench until this season. With Sakic, Stasny and a healthy Forsberg (for now) Colorado certainly has a chance to pull the Minny upset but I think Minnesota's boring approach will get them to the second round. Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series. Colorado biggest advantage may be their crew of timely goal scorers. Sakic, Smyth, Forsberg and even Foote have been know get a goal when it is most needed. How many will they produce in this round?
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
I could tell you to look at my description for the New Jersey / New York Rangers series as there are a bunch of similarities. Both teams are centered around defense first and I expect we'll see a lot of low scoring affairs and a couple OTs. However, I think this series will have a little bit more excitement because both teams have more potential to open it up a bit as well as be a bit more physical. The goaltending isn't up to the level of their Eastern counterpart but it's no slouch.
A big issue in this series will be a couple key injuries. Zubov's continuing problems are a huge issue for Dallas who desperate needs his contributions on both ends to have much of a chance. Ducks have their own issues up front with injuries and need to find consistent secondary scoring.
The monster trade that was supposed to help Dallas up front hasn't had much affect. Richards must find a way to contribute or Dallas's journey will be short. Turco must continue to carry the load for Dallas and be spectacular in the series to advance. The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars.
The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run.
CONCLUSION
I guess I'd be a remissed if I didn't offer up a Stanley Cup winner before the whole thing begins. I went with Detroit over Ottawa preseason and I'll stick with Detroit. They are improved at most positions over last season. I really can't go with Ottawa any more. I'll go with Penguins out of the East, another team that would make for a great finals. I like the makeup of their team and I'm simply not sold on Price in Montreal or that the Rangers can score consistently enough to advance far.
I like to pick a couple "dark horses" as well. I don't think the Rangers qualify as a Dark Horse in the East despite being the #5 seed. I'll go with Philly in the East and Calgary in the West (Kiprosoff becomes superhuman). These two teams are serious longshots consider the road they'll likely have to follow but they do have a lot of the tools necessary.
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