I'll start by looking at my two favorite teams at opposite ends of the spectrum, the Atlanta Thrashers and the Detroit Red Wings. But before I do, there is one significant change in the NHL that I think will have a huge bearing on playoff seatings. This year there will be more interconference games (East vs West) and less division games. This is long overdue. It was silly that over the course of an 82 game season that each team was not playing each other at least once. Plus it allows all the original six to get together once again.
Detroit Red Wings
It's awful hard to see a reason why this team can't win the championship once again. Their only significant losses were Hasek (retirement) and Drake (retirement). Hasek was certainly past his prime and he didn't make it past the first round of the playoffs before being replaced by the more consistent Osgood. Drake, while a significant piece, was only a 4th line forward. The Wings have many players who can fill his role.
How did they improve? Somehow they managed to get the best free-agent forward available in Marian Hossa. He fits their system perfectly as Hossa is equally adept scoring goals and playing defense. No team in the league had better two-way forwards last year and the Wings just added another one. With Datsyuk centering Hossa, Hossa will get plenty of scoring chances. The overall talent level on the Wings second line is better than the top line of at least 75% of the NHL teams. Teams are going to have a very hard time shutting down the Wings offense.
The Franzen factor. No player in the league was hotter than Franzen heading into the playoffs last year. He scored a sick 29 goals in 26 games and wasn't slowed down until a concussion hit him in the second round. Despite that, he became a factor again in the finals and nearly won the Conn Smyth trophy. It doesn't look like he intends on slowing down either. He had a strong preseason and will likely get even more playing time on the first line and powerplay. It's a contract year for Franzen and he could easily catapult himself into a huge payday.
At this time last year, I was trumpting Zetterberg for league MVP. Some early and late season injuries derailed that but he came out on top as playoff MVP. I think he can be in the mix once again. Although not quite the goal scorer Ovechkin or Crosby are, his defensive game is much better than those two. Datsyuk is just as good although he plays a craftier role. His work with puck is just incredible and he led the league in steals.
There are a series of young forwards who've gained valuable experience and are also ready to take on bigger roles. I think this may be a breakout year for Filppula. They've got so much depth at forward that two NHL ready players, Leino & Helm couldn't fit and were sent to Grand Rapids.
The defense was the best in the league last year and appears to be stronger. The solid corp of Lidstrom, Rafalski, Stuart and Kronwall are back and a lot of quality players are ready to make the leap to the next level. Chelios seems content to take a minor role and he'll have to as the young guys are ready to take on bigger roles. Ericsson, another late round steal, looks ready for the NHL but gets caught up in the numbers game and sent to Grand Rapids. He won't be there long.
The other big offseason acquisition was in goal where Ty Conklin was added as a backup. He more than proved his value when he almost single handedly kept the Penguins afloat when Crosby and Fluery were out for and extended period. He is comfortable in the backup role and will likely play in 20-25 games. Osgood is better at this point in his career than ever before. More sound technically and more sound mentally, his calmness saved the Wings during the playoffs last year. Face it, a Wings goalie doesn't have to win games by himself. Rather, he just has work with the defense in front off him and bounce back from poor outings.
All that being said, repeating as champs is a difficult process. A lot of things have to fall into place. Teams already raise their level of play against the Wings and I expect it to kick up a notch. Playing more games against the East should actually boost the Red Wings record as that means less travel for them since they are an Easterly West Conference team. I think they parlay that into the best record in the regular season. The playoffs are different beast. In reality usually 12 of the 16 teams that make it in have a shot at winning. As much as I want to pick the Wings to win the cup again, I'm thinking they come up just a bit short.
Atlanta Thrashers
Here we go again. Almost 10 years into the Thrashers existence and we've got only one playoff series to show for it. That one resulted in an embarassing 4 game sweep. Now, 18 months later, the team is back at the bottom.
Last year at this time I was disturbed the Thrashers didn't see the light and make the major changes necessary to retool for the future instead of clinging to minor success of winning the division and MAKING the playoffs. In some ways I understood that, they really had no young players ready to play at the NHL level and fill the spots. Fortunately, it looks like this offseason was handled differently and I believe it is for the better. Unforunately, the process is going to take some time. It's like we're back at year 3 once again.
A lot of what should make the Thrashers better are some subtractions. First, Hartley is gone for good and actually has a replacement in Anderson. Holik and Zhitnik are gone and with it goes the two of worst work ethics in the organization.
The nucleus to the makeover and my hope for the future lies with the youth in the organization. The started when Hossa and Dupois were traded to Pittsburgh for Christensen, Armstrong, Esposito and 1st round pick. It continued with the drafting of Zach Bogosian third overall in the June draft. Other young players like Enstrom, Little and Thorburn will take on larger roles while still young players like Kovalchuk (25) and Lehtonen (24) are the backbones for the team.
It didn't stop there. Instead of the usual process of bringing in aging veterans to fill holes, the Thrashers looked to younger players on the rise. In comes winger Jason Williams and defenseman Ron Hainsey. There is some risk involved with these acquisitions but I think it is a lot better approach.
The Thrashers didn't stand pat with its veterans either. Reasoner was brought as a improvement over Holik and Schneider was acquired as an improvement over Klee when Anaheim was forced to deal him due to salary cap issues.
Overall, I can't see how this won't be a better team. The question is really how long will it take to see that as Ws in the standings. For it to turn around quickly, all the new players are going to have to make an impact, Kozlov and Exelby must rebound from poor seasons, Kari must improve his consistency and rebound control, Enstrom cannot take a step back, the young players have to contribute and coach Anderson must build an identiy for this team with a strong system. That's a lot of IFs.
If nothing else they should be better on the defensive end (can they get much worse?). More playmakers and puck movers abound. No more slow footed defensemen. This should help the offense and especially the powerplay. They've got some holes up front and no significant scoring threat outside Kovalchuk. Hope is that they get a surprise out of Christensen, Williams, Armstrong or White/Kozlov can regain a their form.
Realistically, I'm hoping for a team that is more competitive and one that grows stronger as the season progresses. I think it is too much to ask for anything more than fighting for the 8th playoff spot. Once again it is all about baby steps and doing what they can to gain some respectability in the league. I think they can do it but it may be painful, at times, to watch the process.
NHL Predictions
EASTERN CONFRENCE
1. Canadiens - 100th season a charm. Nice well rounded team that should get better. Dangerous on the powerplay and adept at defense. Goaltending still the biggest question mark.
2. Penguins - Really tough battle in the Atlantic is won out by team with the offensive weapons. Gonchar's injury hurts.
3. Capitals - Not ready to put them into the upper class just yet but the team is certainly capable of dominating the Southeast Division. Team on the major upswing. Choosing Theodore as a goalie may come back to bite them.
4. Senators - People are way too quick to count this team out. Still a ton of talent up front and enough growing young talent. Coaching change should get the team back on track.
5. Flyers - Last season was a huge success but with it comes lofty expectations. They are built well for the future but need another year for defense to come around.
6. Rangers - Lundqvist better be able to carry the load because I think there are some questions with scoring up front. Jagr's loss will be felt but it'll be better for the team in the long run. Sundin could win them the division IF they can do it without losing talent and do it early in the season.
7. Sabres - Recovery process after losing Briere and Drury should be over. Ruff will bring the this team back.
8. Hurricanes - Getting healthy and improvements on defense will get this team back to the playoffs but the trip won't last long as an infusion of youth is desperately needed.
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9. Bruins - They'll come up short as they probably should have last season. Secondary scoring is desperately needed to improve.
10. Lightning - A lot of nice pieces in place but simply too many changes to turn it around in one season. Struggles scoring in first two contests not a good sign. Good thing they get to play in the Southeast.
11. Devils - Every year I think this team will take a tumble and this one is no different. This team got old awful fast and their solution was to add Holik and Rolston? Broduer will have to carry the team again.
12. Thrashers - Not where I want to see them but I have a hard time seeing them much higher. They'll need to take full advantage of games against the Southeast to do any better.
13. Panthers - How long this team can stay competitive depends on how long they can keep Bouwmeester in the fold. Once he's traded (and I think it'll come sooner rather than later), the team is sunk.
14. Leafs - For years Toronto management ignored the need for this team to get younger and instead clung onto the misguided notion that they were only a player or two away from The Cup. Now, they're paying the price. It'll probably get worse before it gets better.
15. Islanders - Similar to the Thrashers, the Islanders are going with youth. Unfortunately, they don't have a player as dynamic as Kovalchuk or a sound defense. If DiPietro's hips continue to be a problem, this team could be a doormat for years.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Red Wings - The team won't have a letdown because Babcock won't allow it. Too much talent up front and on the back end to not overpower most teams. They'll continue to face a stiffer challenge from the likes of Chicago but take advange of the weak sisters.
2. Stars - Success in the playoffs will form a nice building block to this season. Fiesty physical club will be tough to beat in close games.
3. Flames - Appear to be gooning it up for even more physical play. That'll be enough to take the relatively weak Northwest division but'll be their downfall in the playoffs. Watch Keenan unfold before your eyes.
4. Sharks - Wilson out and former Wings assistant McClellan in at coach will bring a more disciplined approach to a team deseperatly in need of it. They may struggle to find the identity early but it is all about playoffs for this underachieving bunch.
5. Ducks - Issues are with scoring but they make up for it with a strong defense, good goaltending and coaching. Good thing for them Selanne decided to return. They desperately need secondary scoring to emerge.
6. Blackhawks - Ready to get back into the playoffs in a big way. Improvements on defense are a key. Finally getting a lot of fans back in the seats will help make Chicago a difficult place to play once again.
7. Oilers - Hard work and a youth movement last season will pay off as the Oilers get back in the playoffs again. Goaltending is a key to getting there.
8. Coyotes - Gretzky finally returns to the playoffs after sticking with a good rebuilding plan. They won't get far but getting there will be a major achievement for this young team.
9. Predators - I don't know how they do it year in and year out so I probably shouldn't count them out. Goaltending could carry them further and if they can take advantage of some Eastern Conference games they could easily jump to #6.
10. Wild - Shouldn't really count out this team so quickly but eventually that defensive system will be their downfall. They've been desperately trying to sign Gaborik long-term and they better because without him their offense will be almost non-existent.
11. Blue Jackets - Hitchcock is on the verge of getting this team to the playoffs but he needs a couple more players to do it. Hainsey's loss will hurt but some younger players should be ready for bigger roles.
12. Canucks - If they get Sundin this pick changes a bit as would any team that adds him. Without him they'll have a hard time scoring goals and Luongo can't do it alone. Will they shop the Sedin twins at the deadline?
13. Kings - Their tide is beginning to turn but it is probably a year or two from fruition. A bunch of young stars are itching to make an impact. The question is how many of their free agents will be around to see this team finally make it back to the playoffs. Goaltending must get more consistent.
14. Avalanche - The team tried to relive the past one too many times. Now they are recycling old coaches and digging at scraps trying to fill numerous holes. Goaltending is weak and even Sakic can't save the offense. A weak division won't be enough to grab the #8 seed. I hear Claude Lemieux wants to make a comeback. Avs management is stupid enough to grant that wish.
15. Blues - Loss of Jackman is huge. This young team cannot afford to lose one of its stars. They are doing it right in St. Louis its just that they did it wrong, much like the Leafs, for years.
PLAYOFFS
Predicting the playoffs this far out is a bit of crapshoot. Things like matchups, injuries and momentum can play a big role in determining outcome. That be said, it wouldn't be a complete prediction without it.
Eastern Conference Champion : Montreal CanadiensWestern Conference Champion : Detroit Red Wings
Stanley Cup Champion : Montreal Canadiens
This certainly would make for a great series. Maybe not quite as well in the U.S. markets as Detroit-Pittsburgh but getting a Canada team back envolved would be huge up there. A original six matchup with a bunch of history would certainly be a great way to highlight the Canadiens' hundreth season.
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