Another NHL season has come to conclusion. While the league had a ton of drama heading into the final weak of the season, the two teams I root for, Atlanta & Detroit haven't played a meaningful game in months. That's all about to change, at least for Detroit, as the second season begins!
Because there wasn't much drama in Atlanta or Detroit, I found myself watching a lot more hockey involving other teams this season. The only teams I didn't catch a lot of were the teams way out West that seem to have 80% of their games end around 1AM my time. But I already know those teams fairly well as the Wings have tussled with them in recent playoffs.
For history buffs (6 months is consider ancient history on the Internet), I did make preseason predictions. A lot of those were spot on. My prediction for the finals (Detroit-Ottawa) look a little shaky but a lot of the team-by-team were pretty good.
I'll start with Eastern Conference which features a ton young offense stars, an original six matchup, a bunch of penguins and a chicken.
Note about CONFIDENCE : This is represents how confident I feel that I've predicted the series winner, not the number of games. I'll be using this to score my predictions after the round is complete.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8
PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
Nothing quite like an original six matchup. Two teams with a storied history matching up for the upteenth time in playoff history. A bit of the luster is off this matchup as both the Boston Garden and Montreal Forum (orignal) are no longer the venues but the diehard fans remain and it should create a fantastic atmosphere.
Montreal completely fooled me in that I never thought they'd get so high so quick They did it by simply playing the most consistent hockey among a bunch on inconsistent teams in the Eastern Conference. A good combination of skilled offensive players and steady defenders in front of young up and coming goaltender. They are fantastic on the power play and Boston would be well served to play a patient game.
Boston has overperformed a bit this season and the fact that they made the playoffs has to be considered a success. If this team was in the Eastern Conference, they'd be playing golf or changing diapers at this point. The only way they steal the series is if they get superb goaltending out of Tim Thomas and somehow rattle Montreal's young goalkeeper, Price.
Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans.
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7
PREDICTION : Pittsburg in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
A tale of two teams headed in different directions. Honestly, I would have preferred a Pittsburgh-Washington or a Pittsburgh-Philadelphia matchup but this one has a bit of intrigue as well.
Ottawa seemed destined to return to the cup finals at the start of the season. Even as late as mid-January, they looked like a serious competitor. Heatley gets hurt and the team struggles. Heatley returns and the team continues to struggle. The coach gets fired and the team struggles. Goalies bitch and the team struggles. All the while, the players are unconfortably quiet. Only a second to last game beating of providence rivals Toronto keeps the team from falling from the playoffs altogether.
Ottawa has a ton of talent on its roster but just can seem to get it back together. From the outside it looks like are lacking in the leadership department. While Alfredsson is the unquestioned leader on the ice, it doesn't seem like anyone else fills the secondary leadership roles very well. Originally, I though a couple of wins could turn their season back around and make them a real threat in the playoffs. But that never happened and I don't think it'll suddenly happen in the first round.
On the other hand, their opponent appears sets for a long playoff run. Talent abounds on the playoff roster with some of the best skilled players in the game up front in Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. They also got plenty of good role players and couple who can lend a physical presence. However, their key to an extended run has to lie with their goaltending. Fleury is the starter and appears to have bounced back well from the injury that sidelined him for a long stretch. But they can't hesitate to turn over the reigns to Conklin who rescued the team once before.
Any chance Ottawa has depends on them getting off to a fast start and putting up some goals early. Breakdown the confidence of Fleury and make the Penguins turn to Conklin. Rattle Conklin as well and the series could turn. Ottawa might be wise to oepn things up a bit. Play some up tempo hockey. It might sound like the kiss of death against the likes of Crosby and Malkin but I don't think the Pens would expect it or be ready to adjust.
WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
It seems odd to even type that. Washington went from the bottom of the conference in January all the way up to the #3 seed and Carolina ended up kicked to the curb even though I think Carolina was a better team than Boston and would have had a better chance against Philly. However you look at it though, Washington deserved to be here. Their great play down the stretch was the most consistent in the Eastern Conference and Ovechkin showed everybody why he should be considered the best scorer in the NHL.
The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet. Although Washington does have a few playoff veterans, they are few and far between. Much like Pittsburgh last season, the Caps simply are seasoned for playoff play. Even their coach is a relative newcomer to the NHL playoffs and he may find that the motivation and coaching he's been providing won't fair as well against the playoff clubs as it did against the likes of Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay.
Philly has been a puzzle. At times they've look like serious contenders and other times they've look closer to last years version. I'm thinking the reality is somewhere in between but they'll have to play more consistent if they hope to make it to the second round. Defense and secondary scoring appear to be their Achille's heel and that is somewhat expected considering how many young guys they are trotting out there on a nightly basis. The big-money free agents are going to have to come up big to give the Flyers a chance and I'm thinking they'll do an adequate job.
Washington's best chance is much like Ottawa's. Shake up Philly's goaltending. Biron doesn't even have to perform poorly. Just get a couple goals past him early due to defensive miscues and the entire organization and fans may go into panic mode. Get the Flyers to turn to Nittimaki and the Caps will win the series. Just a whif of a goaltending controversy will Flyers fans running scared like Rocky from Clubber Lane. I pity the fools.
Flyers need to play this game tight and don't get into a shooting contest. Be patient and wait for their chances. Above all else, contain the Chicken. Let another player score, if necessary. Just don't let Ovie find the twine.
NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
Is there a way both teams can lose? I can't stand either of these teams. Now that New York plays almost the same boring style the Devils have played for years, I like them even less. This is not the contest you tell your hockey newbie fan to watch. Expect a lot of low scoring games with little back and forth action but some great goaltending. I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we same 4 or more. These teams both play it very close to the vest, play sound defense and have coaches who preach defensive responsibility above all else.
The Rangers have been a tough team to predict during the course of the season. For every two good showings, they'd have one bad one. Although Lundqvist has looked superb most to the season, he had one really bad stretch. They can score 4 or 5 goals one night, then go 6 or 7 games scoring 2 or less. Defense can be sound and then allow Montreal to stage a record comeback. Which team will show up for the series?
The Devils always seem to be in this position. Everyone seems ready to write them off and they put themselves into contention for the cup once again. Management has a way off putting together a collection of no-names and making them play great as a unit. As always, Brodeur is there to save the day in goal when things break down.
New York went out in the offseason and got two players to boost the offense up front. Although Gomez and Drury were nothing special in the regular season, this should be their time to shine. I also believe Jagr will finally wake up as he realizes this just might be his last cup run. In contrast, the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series. Expect Drury to score at least one game winner for his highlight reel.
If this game goes to a 7th contest. I want to personally smack the first guy who asks Mr. Messier if he has a prediction.
Next up is the Western Conference. Matchups feature the President's Trophy winner (Detroit), defending Stanley Cup champion (Anaheim) and the hottest team in hockey (San Jose). It might not have the offensive star power of the East but it makes up for it with superb defense, experienced goaltending and physical intimidating play. I don't think there is much doubt that the best teams are in the West. The question is will they beat each other up so much and travel so much that they've got little left for the finals.
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
