I'm a couple days late but only one game has been played at time of posting and it doesn't affect my picks in the slightest.
When picking NFL seasons, I have two approaches. One is to analyze it to death looking at each teams additions and subtractions, their injury issues and predicting each individual game of the league's 5 month season. This approach takes a ton of time. Until this blog generates me cash flow or I'm retired, I don't see me doing it this way again any time soon. Instead you get my second approach. This one relies on gut instinct I've developed watching the NFL for 35 years.
Without further ado, here's the picks:
AFC West : San Diego Chargers - Simply too much talent for the rest of the division. Even if Merriman can't play the whole season there is still a ton of players on both sides of the ball. There are still question marks at WR and I'm not sold on Rivers as top-notch QB. But with two matchups each against KC and OAK and games against the relatively weak NFC South, they should coast. I think they'll get homefield throughout.
AFC Central : Pittsburgh Steelers - Lot of people picking Cleveland to finally rise to the top but I think that is still a year or two away. Steelers are much more consistent and have the hard nose defense it takes to win late in the year.
AFC South : Indianapolis Colts - Nope, this isn't the year Jacksonville overtakes Indy unless Manning is out for an extended period. Addai is just coming into his own and Peyton still has a bunch of weapons. Their defense is underrated and should be healthier / stronger than in the past.
AFC East : New England Patriots - Can we stop talking about Favre for one minute please. The Jets will be better but not good enough. Experience and team cohesion mean a lot in the NFL and the Patriots have a ton of it. Brady is key but the defense has bigger questions. Teams are going to try to send the house after Brady so they better be prepared. If the Pats had more competition in the division, I think we'd see a tumble.
AFC Wildcards : Cleveland, Tennessee - Biggest shocker may be that I'm leaving Jacksonville out of the mix. I have a ton of respect for Jeff Fischer and he's doing a good job retooling after a salary cap mess. Cleveland has the talent on offense but lacks punch on D.
NFC West : Seattle Seahawks - I wanted to pick Arizona but I got to see their first string offensive line get eaten alive by Bronco second stringers. Warner won't last the season at that rate and Leinhart isn't ready. The Seahawks win by default because the rest of the division is dreadful. Holmgren will go out with a division win but not much more.
NFC Central : Detroit Lions - My biggest surprise pick. The Packers take a step back with Rodgers under center and it is enough to lose the division. Minnesota doesn't have a bonafide QB or WRs capable of being a serious threat. They'll live and die by Adrian Peterson. Detroit has a ton of offensive weapons and just got better with Rudi Johnson in the backfield. Calvin Johnson is set to explode on the scene. Detroit's defense may be one of the best "unknown" groups.
NFC South : New Orlean Saints - I seem to pick the Panthers to win this division just about every year and I almost did it again. Then I remembered the Saints added yet another weapon to the offense, TE Shockey. That's enough to put them over the top despite a somewhat weak defense.
NFC East : Dallas Cowboys - Most talent in the NFC from top to bottom. Solid coaching and plenty of playmakers. The cream rises to the top in tough division. The Giants will be in the hunt but their loses on the DL will be felt. Philly, as always, is the big question mark. The need more contribution from the WRs before taking the next step.
NFC Wildcards : Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers - This is going to be a dogfight for these two spots. Give it to these two because they play in relatively weak divisions.
Playoffs
AFC Wildcard
Pittsburgh beats Cleveland
New England beats Tennessee
NFC Wildcard
Carolina beats Seattle
Detroit beats Arizona
AFC Divisional
Indianapolis beats New England
San Diego beats Pittsburgh
NFC Divisional
Dallas beats Carolina
Detroit beats New Orleans
AFC Championship
Indianapolis beats San Diego - once again Chargers fall short
NFC Championship
Dallas beats Detroit - homefield too much for Detroit to overcome
Super Bowl
Dallas beats Indianapolis - Manning has an off game and good guy Wade Philips finally gets his championship. Marion Barber is MVP.
Notice I left out any mention of the Denver Broncos. I'm saving that for the next post.
