NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2 Review

Another round is complete. Really an odd round in that 3 of the 4 matchups saw one team race out to a 3-0 lead. I thought maybe one of the teams would overcome the 3-0 deficit but that scenario came to a screeching halt after a 4 OT marathon in Dallas. There was one dominating sweep, a couple of upsets but no major drama.Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
RESULT - Philadelphia in 5

Good observation : "I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct." - Usually trusting my gut over my brain gets me into big trouble. Not this time.

Bad observation : "I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners." - Montreal never captured any significant momentum in the series and Philly just kept responding when called upon.

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
Result - Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on." - Malkin scores 2 big goals in game 3 which essentially ices the series and Hossa gets 2 goals including the series clincher in OT in game 5. Lundqvist did well but not well enough to offense Pittsburgh's talent. With the exception of the following, just about about all my observations on this series were pretty good.

Bad observation : "I think this series has got the makings of a classic". - The Rangers blew a chance for this series to be a classic when the blew a 3-0 lead in game 1.

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Detroit in 4

Good observation(s)

1. "If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick." - Samuelsson scores 2 in game 4 and the Wings sweep.
2. "Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast." - Can I have some jam with my toast?
3. "Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he is certain to face much more pressure." - He didn't play better and look what happened. Has a starting goalie ever been pulled 3 times in a 4 game series?

Bad observation: "Detroit in 6" - I should have had more confidence in what was truly a mismatch. Colorado had been playing over their heads for weeks. Once they faced some real competition they wilted.

SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Dallas in 5

Good observation: "San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars" - San Jose played inconsistent and dug themselves a hole which they couldn't overcome against a solid team.

Bad observation: "San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle" - Dallas can match up with anybody. Time and time again hardworking consistent play has beaten out top-talent in Stanley Cup playoff history.

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Winners in 3 of 4. Only the San Jose - Dallas contest played out much differently than I expected. But that series was pretty evenly matched and probably could have gone the other way had Dallas not captured the first two games in the Shark Tank.

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55 + 75 + 80 + 80 = 290
Return : 110 + 150 + 80 + 0 = 340
Profit : 50
Rate of return : 50 /290 = 17.2%

Playoffs
Bet : 820
Return : 1010
Profit : 190
Rate of return : 23.2%

Time to find a bookie. Screw the 401-K and 529. I'm putting everything on Thrashers to win the cup next year.

De Soto Falls Hike

Time for my next hike, this one in the De Soto Falls recreation area in North Georgia. I picked out a short hike for this trip as I had a busy schedule this particular Sunday. Part of the adventure is this particular trip was just getting there.

When I got within a few miles of my final destination, I encountered a roadblock. Someone had been seriously injured/killed on the road ahead and cops were redirecting traffic. The problem was I didn't know an alternate route to my destination. My iPhone came to the rescue. With the aid of the iPhone and Google maps I was able to find a way around the closed section of road.

I found my first turn with little problem and managed to find the next as well but then things got a bit tricky. At a fork in the road I continued straight since this best matched the map. Unfortunately, the road quickly narrowed into a single lane dirt road with plenty rough patches. I stuck it out for a bit being careful to navigate the rough spots in my low clearance car. I couldn't help but think that I wasn't too many miles from where Deliverance was filmed.

I started to think I was on a long driveway and not on a road. Since I noticed someone behind me, I pulled over a bit at an opening and they assured me I was on the right route. Another 1/2 mile of rough road and I was back on the main highway.

The hike was pretty easy, very "kid-friendly" next to a decent campground. The nice falls at the end of the hikes make for a great reward. The hike splits into two separate paths. One trail leads to the middle falls and one to the lower falls. Both paths follow a nice stream and are well maintained with even a couple benches thrown in for resting. The hike to the upper falls was the easier of the two and only 3/4 mile in length. The hike to the lower falls is less than 1/2 mile but a little steeper. I did the whole thing in just about an hour including the stops at both ends.

Here's a view of the middle falls:

Here's a view of the lower falls:

Crimson's Sports Banquet

Last Monday was the annual sports banquet held at Crimson's school. For each sport, pins are awarded for participation and awards are presented to the Most Valuable Player, Most Improved and Best Sportmanship.

Crimson participated in 4 sports (Volleyball, Basektball, Soccer and Cheerleading) and won the Best Sportsmanship award in 3 of the 4. She took home a boatload of hardware: