The fourth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.
Boston - Dec 5 - The team starts with a very favorable home heavy schedule before hitting the road on this date. If they are aren't in the top 4 at this point, it could be a sign of trouble.
Well, Boston is riding high having played exception hockey since their 3-7 start. They keep playing like this and they'll be the favorites to bring home the Cup again.
Calgary - Dec 10 vs Edmonton - With the Flames ready for a brutal road stretch (11 of 13) they get an opportunity to prove they are still kings of the province.
Calgary may have won two in a row against Edmonton but they aren't exactly making a big impact against the rest of the NHL. A highly streaky team, they'll have to find some more consistency to make the playoffs. Otherwise, rumors of an Iginla trade will continue to swirl.
Los Angeles - Dec 13 - Dec 28 - A stretch featuring games against Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago - A very good measuring stick against consistent playoff proven talent.
It took firing the coach but the Kings got the message. They have managed to turn around their season just in the nick of time. As of this moment they sit in eighth place but are only a point out of third. While they may have missed their chance to get involved in the race for #1 in the West, they are very much in the fight for the division crown.
New Jersey - Dec 20 vs NYR - Coming off a long stretch of road games, the Devils return home to face a division rival heading in the opposite direction (up). If the Devils are still in the thick of the race at this point, Broduer may have his one more chance in NJ.
New Jersey isn't done just yet. While they aren't likely to be a competitor for the conference or even division crown, they have managed to stay in the thick of the playoff race despite sub par offense. If they can somehow up the offense, they could climb the standings a bit. Otherwise, they should be in the battle for one of the bottom 2 spots.
Toronto - Dec 22 vs Buffalo - The Leafs play three straight home games against Vancouver, LA and Buffalo before the Christmas holiday. How well they compete in these games will signal how far the team has come.
The Leafs won just one of these three games (Buffalo) and things aren't looking so pretty in Toronto anymore. An early season stocked with relatively weak talent masked many of the weaknesses that remain on this squad. While they still in the thick of it for a playoff spot, they need to find some more consistency. The next couple of weeks will be critical.
Phoenix - Dec 31 at Minnesota - The clock strikes midnight and the year ends with the Coyotes in the middle of an extended road trip. Is their season already done? Will they stay in Phoenix? Is anybody watching?
After being quite competitive in the early season, Phoenix is falling on hard times. With so little margin for error in the Western Conference, Phoenix has a tough road ahead. Meanwhile, the fans are NOT coming out to see this team, even when they are competitive. The owners have already said they don't want to run the team beyond this season so the clock is officially ticking towards the end of this franchise. I don't want to see them leave but someone needs to step up SOON.
Pittsburgh - Jan 1 - The opponents aren't the key but rather is Crosby back on ice. Without him the best the Penguins can expect is another early playoff exit
Things don't look go for a Crosby return. The fact that he came back once and almost immediately went back on the shelf certainly means they have to be even more cautious about any future return. There is still time for him to be a return and play in the playoffs where they'll absolutely need him. I would think that somewhere about mid-March would be the make or break date.
Philadelphia - Jan 2 vs NYR - After a brutal road stretch between Nov 9 and this date, the Flyers come home to face a division rival in the Winter Classic. If they are still in the thick of the race for the division title, this team could be a Cup contender this year. Otherwise, the patience of the home town folks will be tested.
The good news for Flyer fans is that they are still in the thick of the race for the division and conference title. The bad news is they are reeling a bit at the moment and haven't looked good against Boston or the Rangers. Injuries have taken a toll on the defense and leadership and at some point the Flyers will probably be forced to make a trade for at least another serviceable defenseman. Now more than ever, Ilya "The Universe" Bryzgolov needs to show why they paid him the big bucks.
Elsewhere around the league
Washington - Just in the nick of time, the Capitals have turned it around. I have a sneaky feeling the GM was just about ready to pull a deal involving a significant piece when the Caps put together a 5 game winning streak and Ovechkin got going. It'll be a big task to get the #1 seed, but the division lead is only a few points away.
Minnesota - Everybody's storybook team through the first couple of months of the season has finally come back to earth. I don't expect we'll see them climb back up. With a young coach and young squad it is difficult to bring a team out of a funk. They could still get a playoff spot, but they had better turn things around in the next couple weeks.
New York Rangers - Right about now, I'm regretting not picking the Rangers to win their division. This is a squad that continues to grow as a team under Tortella's guidance. They remind me a lot of Boston without quite the firepower or depth. But they have all the right ingredients for an extended playoff run.
While it might seem a little early to lock anyone into the playoffs, the reality is that it is VERY difficult for any team to overcome more than a 10 point deficit with just over 40 games to go. Using that number as a guideline:
Boston and New York Rangers should be almost locks to make the playoffs because they are 9 and 8 points in front of the #9 team, respectively.
Carolina and the New York Islanders are virtual locks to miss the playoffs because they are 10 or more points behind the #8 team.
Montreal and Tampa Bay have a tough road ahead as they currently sit 7 points behind the #8.
Nobody is really a lock to make the playoffs in the West but Vancouver, Chicago and Detroit are growing close.
On the other hand, Edmonton, Anaheim and Columbus can book tee times for April now.
