aka A Plan To Regain Respectability
Last season was a tough one for Thrasher fans. After coming off a playoff season, there was hope the Thrashers had turned the corner and had a brighter future ahead. But underneath the shiny exterior was a roster exposed for its weakness and one that only got weaker when Waddell traded future assets to make the push for the playoffs in 2007.
The 2007 offseason didn't make things much better. With no first round pick, a limited budget and the weight of overpaid previous acquisitions hanging over their head, acquisitions such as Todd White (oooh), Eric Perrin and Ken Klee were the trumpeted new arrivals.
White never managed to be the impact center fans or management hoped he'd be. Kozlov and Exelby couldn't come close to matching their previous seasons after agreeing to new contracts. Hossa struggled to find consistency amid swirling questions and rumors of his eventual departure from ATL. Holik and Zhitnik became cancers to the team with their poor on ice performance and lack of care about it. All this added up to disaster for a team that needed everyone to excel to even have a chance of sniffing the playoffs.
Kovy and Kari played their hearts out and Toby Enstrom made a significant impact in his first NHL season but it simply wasn't enough. In fact, it fell way short as the Thrashers flirted more with the worst record in the NHL than a spot in playoffs.
It is now officially time to put that behind us. 2008 brings new hope with a new coach, John Anderson, a stud defenseman as the 3rd overall draft choice and the weight of Holik, Rucchin, and reportedly Zhitnik's contracts now off the books.
I honestly don't think the Thrashers can turn this around quickly. It's time to build this team in a different mold. No longer can they afford to reach into the oldie bin in hopes of rekindling some magic from a tired soul. They must use the draft wisely and make moves to get the roster younger. Fill the roster with players on the rise. Look for untapped potential and make this team competitive in the long run. Play the youngsters and give them a chance to learn together. Moving Hossa for Armstrong, Christensen and a 1st round pick was a good start. Drafting Bogosian was another good move. Bringing in a coach who has worked with a lot of the young Thrashers makes a lot of sense. Now it is time to use free agency to further the course.
The Thrashers must avoid the temptation to improve in the short run by picking up any aging veterans. This means players like Sundin, Jagr, Roberts, etc. have no place here. We can use veterans to fill secondary roles, but not frontline ones.
First, lets look at the Thrashers roster:
Player Contract (unrestricted free agent at end of contract unless specified)
LW
Ilya Kovalchuk 2 YR $7.50M
Vyacheslav Kozlov 2 YR $3.85M
Brad Larsen 1 YR $550K
Brett Sterling RFA
Colin Stuart 2 YR $475
C
Bryan Little 2 YR $850K RFA
Jim Slater 1 YR $750K RFA
Eric Christensen 1 YR $750K RFA
Todd White 3 YR $2.35M
Eric Perrin 1 YR $750K
RW
Colby Armstrong 1 YR $1.20M RFA
Chris Thorburn 1 YR $535K RFA
Jordan LaVallee 1 YR $550K RFA
D
Niclas Havelid 1 YR $2.90M
Toby Enstrom 1 YR $750K RFA
Ken Klee 1 YR $1.25M
Boris Valabik 1 YR $925K
Garnet Exelby 2 YR 1.40M
Zach Bogosian 3 YR $$$ RFA
Ilya Nikulin ?????
G
Kari Lehtonen RFA
Johan Hedberg 2 YRS ???
Ondrej Pavelec 2 YRS $850,000
At left wing the Thrashers have one bonifide stud in Kovy and a third line player in Kozlov who'll definitely be on the roster opening night. Hope is that Kozlov can rebound from his horrible 08 season and that either Sterling or Stuart can show some improvement. It would be nice to add a bonfide 2nd line winger here but a RW and D priorities will probably trump that. Larsen really has no place on the team and only stands in the way of developing youth at this point. He is, however, the best defensively of the bunch.
There is a logjam at center but no true #1. Little and Christensen will be given every opportunity to win that job but both seem to be ideal 2nd or 3rd line guys. Kovy would benefit hugely from a playmaking centerman but somebody would probably have to be traded to make room. With so many of these guys up for free agency after this year I wonder if it doesn't make sense to pursue a top-line center now. It'd be great to move White but Perrin is probably the only one who'd garner interest.
Right wing is another weak spot. Once again the Thrashers lake a true first line player. They had one until Hossa skipped town but now the cupboard is stocked with few bodies and fewer prospects. This is a position the Thrashers must address in free agency or via trade. While I think Thorburn or Armstrong could play with Kovy, a better RW would make Kovy a 60 goal scorer and bring the PP numbers up as well. With the logjam at center it makes sense to throw a lot of money at a free agent at this position. Unfortunately, the list is weak.
Defense needs an overhaul once again. A team that gives up as many shots as this group is bound to end up with a lot of pucks in the net regardless of the goaltender. On the offensive side, they had a terrible time getting the puck past the center line and assisting in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, a lot of those same players are under contract for this season and it didn't look like there was much room to bring in youth or free agents. Fortunately, it looks like Waddell has finally come to his senses and waived Zhitnik. If rumors are correct, that paves the way for a serious improvement. I think Bogosian will have every chance to make the squad but at 18 it'll be a challenge. If he does that probably leaves only one spot left for a free agent. Might as well make it a good one. Nikulin is wild card. Nobody seems to know if the Thrashers can pry him loose from Russia but if they could he might even be ready for the NHL this season.
Goalie is about the only area without concern. Unless someone throws a large ($5M+) contract at Kari, the Thrashers are set at the position. They'll go with Kari as a starter and likely Hedberg as a backup. Pavelic would only benefit from another season in Chicago. Hedberg's two year deal was a bit of a suprise but makes sense when you consider how goalie injuries have hurt the Thrashers in past seasons. Hedberg could certainly be trade bait at the deadline if Pavelic continues to flourish.
Ideally the Thrashers could use the following in free agency:
1st line RW
Top 2 D
1st line C
Any LW (1st liners need not apply)
I think it is a toss up whether a RW or D should be top priority. Because the market is so thin at RW and there are a lot of defensemen who could improve the Thrashers, I'd be tempted to go RW first. However, it sounds like the Thrashers are focussed on D with Brian Campbell leading the way.
Lets start with RW. He's a edited list of free agents:
Player Age 08 Team 08 Salary
Jaromir Jagr 35 NYR $8.36M
Marian Hossa 28 PIT $7.00M
Pavol Demitra 32 MIN $4.50M
Miroslav Satan 32 NYI $4.50M
Todd Bertuzzi 33 ANA $4.00M
Michael Ryder 27 MTL $2.95M
Brian Rolston 34 MIN $2.43M
David Vyborny 32 CLB $2.20M
*Mark Recchi 39 ATL $1.75M
Radim Vrbata 26 PHX $1.23M
*Darren Haydar 28 ATL $463K
Correy Perry 23 ANA $621K RFA
Pierre-Marc Bouchard 24 MIN $2.60M RFA
I included a couple of restricted free agents (RFA) because they look extremely appealing. I don't think the price for signing them to significant offer sheets (multiple high picks) would be a good appoach but if their team is having trouble signing them (Perry) and/or wants to trade them (Bouchard) the Thrashers should seriously consider it. There isn't a RW available that would be a better fit in Atlanta than Perry and Anaheim would likely look East for any trade. Since Anaheim would only be doing it for salary reasons, prospects or draft choices could get the deal done. However, this is a bit of a dream scenario.
I think we can rule of Hossa and Jagr for obvious reasons. Bertuzzi might work but he'd be a short-term solution at best and would likely seek a cup contender. I actually like Vrbata the best of the bunch but would be satisfied with Demitra, Rolston or Ryder if the price is right. It is still very possible we could see Recchi or Haydar back in ATL but they won't significantly improve the team.
Now for D
D
Wade Redden 30 OTT $6.50M
Rob Blake 37 LAK $6.00M
Adam Foote 35 COL $4.60M
Mattias Norstrom 35 DAL $4.25M
Brad Stuart 27 DET $3.50M
Paul Mara 27 NYR $3.00M
Oleg Tverdovsky 31 LAK $2.50M
Marek Malik 32 NYR $2.50M
Bret Hedican 36 CAR $2.43M
Michal Rozsival 28 NYR $2.30M
Dmitri Kalinin 26 BUF $2.25M
Dick Tarnstrom 32 CLB $2.00M
Jason Smith 33 PHI $1.98M
Brian Campbell 28 SJS $1.75M
Mark Eaton 30 PIT $1.60M
Bryce Salvador 31 NJD $1.50M
Andrei Zyuzin 29 CHI $1.48M
John-Michael Liles 26 COL $1.40M
Karel Rachunek 27 NJD $1.40M
Richard Matvichuk 34 NJD $1.37M
Mike Commodore 27 OTT $1.30M
Jim Vandermeer 27 CAL $1.23M
Nolan Baumgartner 31 DAL $1.20M
Brooks Orpik 27 PIT $1.08M
Jan Hejda 29 CLB $1.00M
Ron Hainsey 26 CLB $900K
Joe DiPenta 28 ANA $700K
Alexei Semenov 26 SJS $650K
*Joel Kwiatkowski 30 ATL $600K
Mark Streit 29 MTL $600K
Jay Bouwmeester 24 FLA $2.18M RFA
Mike Green 22 WAS $833K RFA
OK, those RFAs are a complete dream. Florida will likely match any offer for Bouwmeester and Washington will do the same for Green unless they sign Campbell.
Blake, Foote and Norstrom aren't coming to ATL and that's fine by me as they are all well past their prime and short-term solutions at best. I think both Redden and Campbell are going to be overpaid. Of the two, Campbell would be a better fit here but I'm honestly hoping they only get into the bidding to drive his price up. I want a player who is more sound on the defensive end. Orpik and Rosival are my top picks to come to Atlanta and improve the defense. Getting both would be even better. Rosival can improve the power play and Orpik is a very good stay at home defenseman. Stuart and Hainsey are two other great options. I guess my main reason for staying away from Campbell is I'd rather see the Thrash grab two quality players for the long-term than just one. With 2 than could allow Bogosian to play at least a season in Chicago before playing in the NHL.
Centers
Sergei Fedorov 37 CLB $6.08M
Mats Sundin 36 TOR $5.50M
Alexei Zhamnov 36 BOS $4.10M
Doug Weight 36 STL $3.50M
Martin Straka 34 NYR $3.30M
Brendan Morrison 31 VAN $3.20M
Craig Conroy 35 CGY $2.85M
Daymond Langkow 30 CGY $2.44M
Bryan Smolinski 35 MTL $2.00M
Vaclav Prospal 32 TB $1.90M
Jason Williams 26 CHI $1.60M
Chris Gratton 31 TBL $1.50M
Mike Peca 33 CLB $1.30M
*Jason Krog 32 ATL $475K
Not really any first-line players here so the Thrashers will probably have to stay with what they've got at center. No reason to bring on more 2nd/3rd liners. I do like the IDEA of signing Federov because I think he's still got playmaking talent in him and would work well with Kovy. However, injury concerns don't merit the risk. Krog could be back in Atlanta since he can play RW and coach Anderson somehow made him a stud in the AHL.
Finally LWs
Markus Naslund 33 VAN $6.00M
Ladislav Nagy 28 LAK $3.75M
Ruslan Fedotenko 28 NYI $2.90M
Brendan Shanahan 38 NYR $2.50M
Gary Roberts 41 PIT $2.50M
Petr Cajanek 31 STL $2.00M
Sean Avery 27 NYR $1.90M
Cory Stillman 33 OTT $1.75M
Andrew Brunette 33 COL $1.60M
Matt Cooke 28 WAS $1.53M
Geoff Sanderson 35 EDM $1.50M
Scott Thornton 36 LAK $1.50M
Ryan Malone 27 PIT $1.45M
Kristian Huselius 28 CGY $1.40M
Martin Gelinas 37 NAS $1.25M
Jarkko Ruutu 31 PIT $1.15M
Jason Chimera 28 CLB $1.00M
Antti Miettinen 26 DAL $885K
Pascal Dupuis 28 PIT $880K*
Eric Boulton 31 ATL $525K
We'd be looking a depth more than anything else so hopes of reviving Nagy's career in ATL are probably not good. I think Malone will be well overpaid by someone and even though he could probably play RW, I don't think I want him near Blueland. Brunette would make a nice role player but I don't think we need another pee-wee in Blue. Dupois seemed to burn his bridges when he left and I really don't want Boulton back. Could Avery play on the same team as Kovy? Could Fedotenko be effective on the 3rd line? Looks like a bunch on longshots to me. Might as well go young. Just in case management is taking notes, I'd look at Chimera or Miettinen and hope they produce here.
In summary here's my plan:
D : Orpik/Hainsey - 4 yr $3.75M
D : Rosival/Stuart - 5 yr $4.0M
RW: Vrbata - 3yr - $3M
RW: Recchi - 1yr - $1.5M
LW: Chimera - 2 Yr - 1.75M
G : Kari 3 Yr 3.75M
I think that is pretty realistic and keeps the Thrashers a decent amount below the cap. Defense is set for this year and beyond and can afford to move a D is someone comes calling. Bogo can develop in Chicago. C is still a bit weak but we can't have everything. Use any leftovers to bring Krog and Haydar back if need be.
From a PR standpoint, all these signings don't make the splash that Campbell will make but I think they'll improve the team a lot more.
I'll be sure to follow up as signings begin July 1.
