Looking back at round 3
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
Actual: NEW JERSEY in 6
In the end, I underestimated the Devils and overestimated the Rangers. The long series the Rangers played leading up to this matchup certainly affected their play. It is incredible hard to sustain high level of play for so many games. When a team plays the way the Rangers do, blocking shots and focussing on team defense first, it is especially hard. The Devils used this to their advantage by using by a relentless forecheck that forced the Rangers to think and act fast. With the Rangers playing on their heels for much of the series, they had more troubles creating offense.
In the end, Lunqvist simply couldn't carry the team to another series victory. Ranger fans and players will look back on this season as a golden opportunity lost. They were easily the most consistent team all season and had all the tools to win The Cup but came up short. On the positive side, I believe this team is actually a year ahead of schedule and will be even better next year. Krieder, who joined the team for the playoff run, is an exceptional talent and will be a nice addition to their young arsenal.
Again and again I underestimate the Devils. Heading into the season I had major questions about how the team would handle things on the defense with a goalie who's best days are behind him. I also wondered whether the team still had the drive and energy to sustain a long playoff run. Their performance thus far has taken away those questions. The infusion of quality youth in the lineup has shown why Lou Lamoriello is regarded as one of the best talent evaluators in the game. Parise is finally showing the entire continent why he is one the best players in the NHL and Kovalchuk is living up to the massive contract the Devils gave him. There are still questions about life after Broduer but they have shown they'll be a factor at least until he is gone.
PHOENIX #3 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $180
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 5
If there was anyone with a lingering doubt that LA was a serious contender to win The Cup, it had better be gone by now. Their run through the West Conference was historic. At no point was the team in any serious trouble of losing control of any series. Their defense, which played so well throughout the season, kept up the pace under the intense pressure of the playoffs. Their offense, so inept during the season, finally broke out. The series was a pleasure to watch because the team played with such efficiency and discipline at a very high speed. They consistently pushed back whenever Phoenix thought they had a bit of momentum.
Phoenix was in over their heads in the this matchup. They simply didn't have the horses to match up with offensive depth of Phoenix's lineup and Smith simply couldn't carry them any more. The reality is this team never should have made it this far. It is a credit to their coaching staff that they somehow managed to win 2 series. Here's hoping the fans will finally have a new owner committed to keeping the team in the desert.
Winning 1 and losing 1 leaves me at 6-8 total but I'm starting to regain some money. The $100 profit brings me back to $630 of my original $1000.
FINALS
NEW JERSEY #6 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $500
Although I'm going to pick LA based on their superior goaltending and defense, there are a couple things that I think may work against them. Although the number of games they have played is a plus, without facing much adversity, I'm a bit concerned they are a bit ill-prepared to face any that may come in the next 2 weeks. They talent level they have faced has been less than ideal and they could be a bit over confident. With over a week since their last game, they may face some difficulty getting back to top form early in the series.
However, it is a good thing for the Kings that they'll open the series on the road. If they were a bit out of sync, it is much better to lose on the road than at home. Given that they haven't lost on the road yet, just getting one in New Jersey will put them in a great position to win The Cup. By the time they return home to LA, they should be clicking once again.
What New Jersey has used the last two series against New York and Philadelphia will not work against the Kings. The heavy forecheck is not the way to beat the Kings. I see that as a dangerous way to play them as their defenders are much more adept at moving the puck and making fast decisions. Heavy pursuit will only lead to odd man advantages against the Devils.
In contrast, the Kings method of pressuring the points, specifically on the penalty kill should make the Devils less effective. Kovalchuk is known for turning over the puck and he'll have to be extra careful against the Kings.
For the Devils to have a chance, they must find a way to get to Quick early in games. The Kings are very comfortable playing a tight contest, just waiting for the opportunity to strike. Kovalchuk and Parise must be the superstars for the Devils and Broduer has to play as well as he has or better. Discipline will be key for both teams as neither can afford stupid penalties. The Devils not only need to score on their powerplay, they must not let the Kings get short-handed opportunities because they tend to bury those.
Keep an eye on the Devils fourth line. This may be the lone area where they have a slight advantage. For the Kings, simply watch Quick play in net. He is probably the NHL's best right now and is a pleasure to watch how easy he makes in look. If the Kings win, I expect he'll be named the Conn Smyth winner.
Here's hoping my final bet puts me back in the black.
