NHL Playoff Predictions

It's that time of year again. The NHL playoffs are set to begin. It's become a yearly ritual for me to make predictions with comments. It seems like every year it is a bit more challenging. So many teams are capable of winning a series. So many goaltenders are capable of stealing a game or two to change the momentum. Every team has some question marks as well as strengths.

As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.

Without further ado.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100

I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.

#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15

You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.

#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40

This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.

#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90

Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100

I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.

#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25

I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.

#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35

I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.

#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70

Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.

That's $475 wagered on this round.

One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.

I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.

NHL Predictions - A Look Back

Before I dive head-first into playoff predictions, I need to look back and see how well I did with my preseason predictions.

In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.

Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.

One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.

In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.

Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.

San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.

Now on to the playoffs!