NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE


MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%


I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct.


Montreal had their problems against Boston on both the offense and defensive ends of the ice but I'm guessing they get a more consistent effort in round 2 after getting the first round under their belts. Their power play floundered but Philly will likely give them plenty of opportunities to work through it. I expect Montreal to come out flying and try to expose Philly's somewhat shallow defense. A top-level performance out of Biron early will be a key to keeping this series close. Montreal will almost certainly have a couple of lop-sided wins in the contest. The main question will be how the Flyers respond.


The Flyers will look to intimidate in any way possible. Hard checking and disciplined hockey will have to be the norm even more so than in the Capitals series. Getting bodies in front of the young Habs goalie and getting the ugly goals will keep the series close. The power play must continue its high level of performance, a task that'll be much more difficult against the more disciplined Canadiens who play quite well on the penalty kill.


I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners. The pressure is all on Montreal this series and if the Flyers can pull out a win in Montreal, the young Habs just might cave. Like most series, goaltending will be key. Which Price will show up?


PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%


I think this series has got the makings of a classic. Two up and coming teams loaded with old and new stars. One team with a very good offense and another team with sound defense and excellent goaltending. Neither team has a glaring weakness and each weakness is a strength on the opposing roster. Which team is ready to rise to the occasion and take the next step. The Penguins are almost certain to find themselves in this round for years to come. The Rangers could be at a crossroad with Jagr, Shanahan and defensemen without contracts beyond this season. Will that add extra motivation for the Rangers?


The Penguins are a threat to score with just about every offensive possession. Players like Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar make it difficult enough 5 on 5. The Rangers cannot afford to make in 5 on 4. That means a player like Avery will have to control himself. Stupid penalties could be the difference in this series.


The Rangers will play it close to the vest, trying to get the Penguins to play a slow-tempo, hard-hitting affair. A 2-1 game is a much better formula for Ranger success than 5-4 because the Rangers have had difficulties scoring throughout much of the season. The Rangers will need timely goals and they've certainly got the crew for that with Shanahan, Jagr, Gomez and Drury leading the way. But if the Penguins can control that group (notice I didn't say stop), the Rangers will be stressed to find secondary scoring. Fluery needs to handle Avery in front of the net but he can't do it alone. His defense will have to do its work to make sure he isn't a factor.


I think we'll see some close contests and the OTs the Rangers missed in the first round. Will the usual scorers show up in OT or will new legends be born.


I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


It's turn back the clock time. Forsberg, Sakic, Foote, McCarty, Maltby, Osgood, Lidstrom, Chelios. Screw all that. This is 2008 and I'm not interested in the past. The reality of the situation is that these are distinctly different teams from their last playoff series many moons ago.


Colorado might be trying to relive the past but the Wings have moved on. Fresh blood abounds in Detroit where players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen and others are looking to make their own mark on Red Wings hockey history.


Detroit is the better defensive team. From the forwards on back they play sound defensive hockey. There were times during the Nashville series where they simply couldn't get the puck past the blueline or get a shot on goal for LONG stretches. The only thing that kept Nashville in the series was a couple mental lapses by an aging Hasek and outstanding goaltending by Ellis. With Osgood taking over in net, they don't have to worry as much. His mind doesn't wander and neither do his legs. The Wings defense feels more confident playing in front of him because they know what to expect. Osgood's all-star season was no fluke. He's been playing his best hockey the last 3-4 years.


Detroit can roll four forward lines and Foote can't be out there for all of them. Look for Babcock to consider splitting up Zetterberg and Datsyuk at some point in the series to exploit the matchup problems it creates. The fourth line played extremely well in the Nashville series and I don't see why that can't continue. If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick. Hudler seems to be coming into his own this post season.


Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast. The Wings will recognize this and come after them hard, something Minnesota failed to do for some reason. Stasny cannot afford to have another insignificant series. Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he's is certain to face much more pressure.


Colorado has done well to make it to this point but I don't think they can play much better. Detroit can play better than they did in round 1. Detroit is leaps and bounds better than Minnesota, especially on the offensive end. Colorado's best chance would be to get to Osgood early and make Babcock put Hasek back in. From there, who knows what'll happen.


SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars. San Jose can roll four hardworking lines but at times they struggle to get secondary scoring. The city of San Jose is excited about hosting another playoff round but in the backs of their minds and the backs of the player minds are past failures in getting beyond the second round. They have the pieces in place it is simply a matter of execution and discipline.


Meanwhile, the pressure is off the Stars. They've managed to beat one of the teams many had picked to win the cup and the did it in fairly decisive fashion. An opportunistic team that plays well with the lead as is backed by solid goaltending. Its a team full of role players but few superstars. The Stars best chance is for Turco to play his best, get Zubov healthy and get big performances out of Robiero (sp?), Richards and even Modano. Stealing a game in the Shark tank early would be huge.


San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle. They've got more offensive power than the Ducks and play a physical yet disciplined game. The key for them is to get their big stars (Thorton, Marleau) involved in the contest and to stay focused throughout the series.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Review

Whew. The first round is finally over and the Wings have advanced. First round always seems to be the most challenging as teams have to adjust a bit to a new level of play and intensity. Plus, top teams have to deal with the added pressure of meeting lofty expectations. I think that is why you see some significant upsets in round 1 and this year was no different.

Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7

Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.

Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.

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PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4

Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.

Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.

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WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7

Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.

Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.

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NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5

Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.

Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.

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DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.

Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".

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SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7

Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.

Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.

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MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6

Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.

Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.

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ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6

Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!

Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.

Taking the confidence factor into account:

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%

I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.