NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1

There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.

As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.

Without further ado.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85

I've seen more than a few people picking this series as an upset. I just don't envision that happening. After a year of stewing from the major upset at the hands of the Canadiens, the Capitals have got to be determined not to let that happen again. They spent the better part of the season with working on more defensive philosophy. While this resulted in less goals for Ovie and bunch, they finally found a way to win without scoring 4 goals a game. This is precisely what it takes to win in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are forced to play this style because they have so little offense. Their team is built around hard work and strong goaltending. But now that Callahan is out, they simply don't have the offense it'll take to win. Lunqvist may steal a game or two but I just don't see the Rangers coming out on top.

The only way the Rangers win is to attack the young Cap goalies. Get a lot of traffic in front and throw a lot of pucks at the net. Hope the playoff jitters get to the goalie(s). Get an early lead and make the Caps start doubting themselves. Knock the Caps out this time and they may never recover.

#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75

Despite that late season swoon, I still think the Flyers have the perfect makeup for another long playoff run. I was one of the few people who said it last year and I think they are now an even stronger team. But it isn't going to be easy and Buffalo won't go down without a fight.

I think we'll finally see the real Flyers step back up and take control of this series with offense. Buffalo can score goals in spurts but I don't think they can match the Flyers at both ends of the ice or contain their powerplay. Buffalo's best chance is in goal. Miller can be a differance maker that Philly wishes it had. On the surface the Flyers goaltending trio looks better than the tandem they had last year but their starter is not playoff tested. Only time will tell.

#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65

Of all the series, this is the one I think is the most lopsided. Boston is better built to be successful in the playoffs while Montreal had just enough tools to get there. I wouldn't read too much into Montreal early season success against Boston or their success in the playoffs last year.

Boston will beat Montreal with their physical game. They'll wear down the smaller faster Canadiens, get plenty of "garbage" goals and use strong goaltending to keep Montreal in check.

The first game in Montreal is worth a looksee as Chara returns to the scene of the crime. The fans will be rabid beyond their normal craziness. Montreal's best chance is having Price become superhuman and hoping Boston gets undisciplined.

#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25

I want to pick at least one upset in the East so I'll pick this one. While the Penguins have surprised me with their play without their 2 best players, I think the tank finally runs dry before Crosby has a chance to lace them up.

I'm concerned with lack experience among some of the Tampa players and coaches but there are just enough veterans around to make up for it. We could see some high scoring affairs in the these games if Tampa Bay gets to play their way. It'll be up to the Penguins to slow the game down and frustrate the Lightning.

Goaltending is the enigma in this series. Each team has a tender who can dominate but they are both highly inconsistent. The team that finds consistency in net will probably come out on top.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90

Surely the Canucks would have liked a different opponent in round one. To see the team that knocked them out of contention the last two years is a little disturbing. But I have a feeling this just might be the catalyst that propels them to a Cup win.

This isn't last year's Hawks. Gone is a lot of depth and grit that made this team a playoff success. While there is still plenty of offensive punch, solid defense and decent goaltending, they are going to have trouble matching up with Vancouver's deep squad over the course of a long series.

The key in this series in Luongo. He's been notorious for playoff flops in the past and he desperately needs to win this series to exorcise those demons. Expectations are a mile high in Vancouver and most of the pressure falls on Luongo. Perhaps winning the gold put those troubles behind him but if the Hawks somehow take a series lead, doubts will creep up.

Vancouver is 1st or 2nd in just about every offensive and defensive category. The one I find most amazing is their record when scoring first. I can't find the exact number but it was something close to 46-2. Think about that for a minute.

#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40

This was a tough series for me to predict. One side of me wants to think the Sharks will easily dispatch the Kings because of the loss of Kopitar/Williams, two significant offensive pieces. However, the Kings have been resiliant in their absence and I think they'll rise to the occassion again. However, I think this particular task is just too much to handle without being closer to 100%.

The Sharks should have got the monkey off their back a bit by getting to the conference finals last year. But it's time to start again and find a way to take those last steps towards a championship. It's the only thing that'll be considered a success. A loss at home or a failure to get their offense going will make them nervous.

The Kings best chance is to keep the games close and hope their goalie can stand on his head. This should be a fun series to watch if you can tolerate nights with little sleep.

#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Never have I felt less confident about a Detroit team heading into the playoffs. Add Zetterberg's knee tweak to that and I'm almost tempted to pick Phoenix to win the series. It's the consistency that has been most maddening.

Somehow, someway, they always seem to rise to the occassion when it matters the most so I am expecting to see less mistakes out of the Wings now that the playoffs have started. There are still some nagging issues including a lack of secondary scoring, a weak 3rd defensive pair and a scary situation in net.

Whoever scores the early goals will likely control the series. Low scoring contests play into the Coyotes hands. Excellent coaches on both benches. The Wings have to find a way to be aggressive from the get go and force the Coyotes to take some penalties because the powerplay of Detroit vs the penalty kill of Phoenix is a huge mismatch in Detroit's favor. It's here I think they'll take the series.

Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best hope. The Wings have fallen to a shutdown goalie too many times to list and Bryz is among the best.

Detroit has been less than stellar at home since the beginning of the year and terrific on the road. They'll need to do better at home to advance.

Key players to watch for Detroit are Abdelkader and Helm. They've been here before and played important, limited roles. They've both expanded their responsibilities this season and should be key factors in how the series unfolds. Both play an aggressive, speedy style and have just begun to find their scoring touch.

#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30

My "upset" for the West. The Ducks have played tremendously for the last two months and everyone seems to be focussed on that. Meanwhile, Nashville has played almost as well. I know the Predators have never won a single playoff series but I think now is the time.

This bound to be physical series. The Ducks like to play an agressive style and the Preds are a very disciplined, defense first team. With quality goaltending on both sides I expect a lot of low scoring affairs and probably some OT contests.

The Ducks will be relying a lot on their top line to get it done but the Preds counter with two defensemen as good as any pair in the game. Making sure he gets that pair on the ice when Getzlaf, Perry and company are out there will be job #1 for coach Trotz. Fortunately, that is something he can handle.

I think this series comes down to adjustments and Trotz is great at keeping a series close. Keep Rinne playing like he has all season in net and the Ducks can return to their pond early.

A big factor in this series could be the health of the Ducks goalies. They've got three in tow but all have one form of an ailment. They are all decent but it isn't a position you want to worry about heading into what should be a very close series.

That's $455 wagered on this round.

Before the season started I picked Vancouver over Pittsburgh in the finals. I'll stick by the Canucks but I've got to count the Penguins out due to the loss of Crosby and Malkin. Vancouver has been the most consistent team from beginning to end and they have all the pieces to do it this year.

Picking the East winner is a huge challenge. None of them have played consistently and all of them have weaknesses that could easily see them knocked out in the first round. While I'd like to pick Boston, I'm not sure a second round matchup with Philly is in their favor. I'd lean towards Washington but have sneaking feeling they may resort to old form if they fall behind. That leaves Philly. If they can just get beyond round 1 and get a healthy Pronger back, things may align for them once again.

However, Philly's luck will run out in the final again, unless they are fortunate enough to meet a team other than the Canucks.

So, that's Vancouver over Philly in the final. Pick any Sedin as your Conn Smyth winner. I can't tell them apart.

NHL Playoff Predictions - A Prequel

It's that time of the year again. No more sleep filled nights. No more spring weekends outside. Instead I get to endure West coast games starting at 10:30PM almost every weeknight and being holed up in my basement watching afternoon tilts on the weekends. But I do this by choice because there isn't much better than NHL playoff hockey. I would have preferred watching it firsthand, right here in Atlanta, but once again that hope is left for "next season".

Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared. It seems like ages ago and only yesterday at the same time. My predictions were very accurate picking 13 of 16 playoff teams and 5 of 6 division winners. Most of my observations were accurate as well. About the only mistakes I made were with Anaheim, the New York Rangers and Ottawa. Cory Perry pushed the Ducks into the mix, rapid development of some young Rangers put them a year ahead of schedule and Ottawa sell-off sent them crashing downward.

Honestly, it wasn't tough to predict that there would be a dogfight for the bottom playoff seedings. To me the biggest surprise of the season had to be how much the Blackhawks struggled. I knew they'd take a step back but I never envisioned them struggling to make the playoffs. Considering the key injuries the Penguins faced, I was shocked they were battling for the division until the final weekend.

An 82 game season usually results in the best teams making the playoffs and it's pretty hard to argue that any quality teams were left out. In the end, Dallas and Atlanta just weren't as good as they started, Toronto wasn't ready, Washington was a stronger team than Tampa and Vancouver was the class of the league. But that is the regular season. The playoffs are a different story. Look no further than the Flyers, Caps and Canadien teams of last year to see how different the two seasons can be. Players must raise their play to the next level and each mistake is magnified. Extended scoring slumps or simply injuries can mean the difference between playing on the ice or on the golf course when the calender turns to May.

My preseason prediction for the eventual cup winner, Vancouver, doesn't look too bad either. They appear to have all the key pieces in place to grab the coveted prize. But sometimes, those lofty expectations give way to simple bad luck. In an attempt to avoid repetition in my upcoming predictions, here are some of the keys I think ANY successful playoff team must have to win the big prize:

1. Faceoffs - The most underrated statistic in all of professional hockey. It sets the tone for the offense and allows the defense to get our of their own zone. A team that can dominate in the circles can set the pace of a game. Vancouver, San Jose and Detroit are leaders in this facet with New York and Pittsburgh among the worst.


2. Discipline - There is a difference between a good penalty and a bad penalty and the bad ones always seem to be magnified in the playoffs. Detroit, Chicago and Phoenix are among the least penalized while Pittsburgh and Anaheim were among the most penalized.


3. Goaltending - Goaltending can steal a series all alone and there are plenty of candidates capable of doing this. The teams that don't have one of these goaltenders need to be especially worried. That means Washington, Detroit, Philly have to find ways to score because they won't feel comfortable with one goal leads. Can outstanding goaltending in the regular season in Nashville carry over to the playoffs?


4. Grinders - Playoffs are rarely the time where superstars dictate the results. While they may be the big point producers, it is the contributions of the 3rd & 4th line players that elevate the entire team. If a team has a weekness on the 3rd or 4th line, it'll be exposed.


5. Penalty Killing - Mistakes will happen but the best teams can handle the pressure. This is no place for rookies, prima donas, or chance takers. The little things like chipping the puck out and making sure you get it deep for a line change are huge. Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver had the best penalty killing units in the regular season. Both Phoenix and San Jose had miserable units.


6. Coaching - Adjustments need to be made from game to game and from period to period. A coach has to know when to yank a goalie and how to rally the troops. The Penguin's Bylsma did a fantastic job in the regular season but these playoffs are chock full of pedigreed coaches. It's the inexperienced one in Tampa that faces the biggest challenge.


7. Experience - This comes into play in every game but where it tends to count the most is when the team faces some adversity. Experience keeps a team/player focussed. It allows them to put a bad goal or a bad shift behind him. San Jose, Philly, Chicago and Montreal gained valuable experience last year. Detroit and Pittsburgh have it in bunches. At the opposite end of the spectrum New York, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Phoenix don't have a hell of lot. Washington and Boston may actually be fighting against their previous experience.


8. Injuries - No one can predict which team will be affected and few teams are completely healthy at this point. Especially troubling has to be the unknown status of Crosby in Pittsburgh, Zetterberg's "lower body injury" in Detroit, Pronger in Philly, Kopitar/Williams in L.A., Callahan in N.Y. and the banged up defense in Vancouver. How quickly the players return, plus how the teams responds in the absence, will go a long way to determining the eventual champion.

I'm sure I could come up with more but that's enough to chew on. Now it's time to get cracking on the next blog post containing the actual predictions.