The third installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.
Anaheim - Nov 5 at Detroit - Long road trip ends against a team the Ducks like to measure themselves against. How's Hiller health? Can Perry continue his hot streak?
Anaheim has some serious problems. The most dangerous line in hockey is anything but. The defense is pedestrian and secondary scoring is non-existent. Things haven't got better since the Ducks arrived home and now they find themselves in the precarious position of digging out of a deep hole in the ultra competitive West.
St. Louis - Nov 5 at Minnesota - Another team with a brutal stretch of road games to start the season (11 of 15). In a competitive Western Conference, St. Louis must emerge from this stretch close to .500 of risk being on the outside yet again.
One thing is for certain. Management in St. Louis was not going to sit back and settle for a mediocre start. While coaching may have been the unfair target, it is hard to question the Blues made the right decision to make a move. History is full of teams that acted too late to save the season. St. Louis may have made the move at just the right time. Hitchcock has quickly turned things around and got the Blues back in the hunt. Every point counts in this race and at least management understands that.
Minnesota - Nov 5 - A difficult set of opponents graces the Wild's early schedule (Detroit x3, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Vancouver x2). If the Wild are competitive in these games, it'll set the tone for a good season.
Easily the biggest surprise of the season and frankly I'm a bit shocked they've held it together for so long with questionable offense and a rather young defense. I'm still not convinced they can hold it together in the long run but they have convinced me they can stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. A key home stand is next before hitting the West Coast for some games that will determine just how good this team can be.
Nashville - Nov 12 vs Montreal - a road heavy opening schedule (10 of first 15) finally ends. Predators cannot afford to dig a deep whole against the talented conference.
Once again, Nashville and coach Trotz have shown to be a resilient bunch. They are on a tear as of late an quickly climbing the standings in the West. What I saw in person wasn't impressive but apparently that was an aberration more than a norm. As usual, Nashville is playing a lot of close games but finding ways to win. Keep it up and they'll get yet another shot to prove their worth in the playoffs.
Dallas Nov 19 vs San Jose - About 30 games in, see how the coach is doing, how Lehtonen is holding up and where the teams confidence is at.
Dallas's great start is quickly fading away. Everything that went right early, has fallen apart lately. This is somewhat expected considering the lack of depth and youth on this roster. Fortunately, the team is still playing hard, so there is no reason to make any radical moves. As the season wears on, I expect the Stars will have more and more trouble grabbing wins so it is essential they take advantage of every opportunity presented.
Elsewhere around the league
Look at the following recent scores. Notice a trend?:
Dallas 5 - Washington 2
Edmonton 3 - Montreal 1
St. Louis 3 - Chicago 0
Ottawa 5 - Toronto 2
Winnipeg 5 - Tampa Bay 2
Winnipeg 4 - Washington 1
Calgary 5 - Chicago 2
Toronto 7 - Washington 1
Edmonton 9 - Chicago 2
It is not just that perennial doormats are winning games, it is that they are winning them in embarrassing fashion over teams that are considered among the elite. This season, even more so than past seasons, there is little difference between the top and bottom teams. With the possible exception of Columbus, New York Islanders and Calgary, every team has very good chance to win any game. Throughout the course of this season, I expect to see very little spread between the top 1-13 teams in each conference. Be very leery if your favorite team hits an extended losing streak or lets a game slip away because those couple points could make a huge difference come April.
Boston - Apparently the team finally got the message and has turned things around. Just in the nick of time. A 9 game winning streak has them back near the top of the conference where I expect they'll remain
Washington - There is something seriously wrong in the nations capital and this time I'm not talking about the government. There is a clear divide between the coaching staff and some of the players. This sort of situation has played out before and it rarely has a good ending without a coaching change. Things had better turn around in the next couple weeks or management will have to make a move or risk losing the season.
New York Rangers - Another team that got of to a less than ideal start has turned things around significantly. There are still some troubling signs but as long a Lundquist stays healthy they should be in the mix.
Pittsburgh - Sid the Kid returns an immediately makes an impact. A dangerous team has become even more dangerous. It'll be interesting to see how the big 3 in the Atlantic Division matchup when they start playing each other.
Toronto - A hot start has quickly cooled off. Does this sound familiar for Toronto? It should. Troubles in net have been magnified with the injury to Reimer. With the margin for victory so slim it'll be interesting to see if Burke has something up his sleeve in the next couple weeks.
Detroit - What a roller coaster ride of a season. The good thing is they are playing good hockey in almost all the games, just having trouble find the net at times. Jimmy Howard is playing great in goal and the defense is improved. Both great signs for the long run.
Vancouver - Still mired with inconsistency, they'll have to find get back to dominating more opposition in the coming month. If not, the pressure will increase by the day.
Colorado, Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, New York Islanders - Time is already running short for these franchises. They are either mired in season long slumps or falling quickly. If an adjustment isn't made soon, they're out of it. Next up the fire sale.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Monday, October 31, 2011
NHL Storylines
The second installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.
Buffalo - Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals.
Tampa won both of these contests but Buffalo has gone 6-2 in their other contests to send a pretty clear message that they will be in the thick of the race throughout the season. With Boston and Montreal struggling in the early going, Buffalo has a very good chance of capturing the division title.
Carolina - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again.
Carolina survives the early road trip but could be in much better position had they managed to avoid a couple overtime and shutout losses. For a team on the edge, every single point counts.
Colorado - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use.
Colorado really couldn't have asked for a better start. The challenge now is to find a way to get Duchesne back to form and maintain the early success. This team has started strong before only to fade during the winter months.
New York Rangers - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations.
Normally a .500 record on such a road-trip would be decent but the Rangers are continuing to show signs of the team that had trouble making the playoffs the last couple years, not a team improving. 3 losses after regulation have really hurt their confidence. Dropping the first game back at Madison Square Garden didn't exactly make the fans feel comfortable. Not to worry, today's word is the Rangers have called Sean "The Savior" Avery back to the big club. Oh Boy!
Montreal - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.
Things were looking extremely bleak for the Canadiens until they strung together 3 straight wins against Philly and Boston. We'll see over the next couple weeks if they can maintain some success.
Washington - Oct 29 at Vancouver - This team can only measure itself against the best.
If this was the only game of importance, Washington failed the test. Fortunately, they have passed just about every other one including decisive victories against Philly and Detroit. But following those with losses to Edmonton and Vancouver, there are still questions about consistency. To get where the Capitals want to be, they cannot afford to mail in any games.
Florida - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together.
Florida has had it's share of good and bad to start the season, somewhat expected from a roster with so much turnover. The next month will be critical as the team tries to settle into a rhythm and stay in the hunt.
Elsewhere around the league
Boston - What has started bad has only gotten worse. The latest was 2 losses to arch rival Montreal. There is too much talent on this team to stay down but the team is quickly realizing that being on top means every opponent comes in focused and ready to play. Boston needs to learn that anything less than 100% isn't going to get it done.
Philadelphia - A great start to the season has hit a minor slide. This isn't surprising considering the amount of turnover on the roster. What is surprising is that the defense has struggled so much. Pronger's absence hurts but good teams need to overcome this kind of loss. Bryzgolov needs to earn his pay in every start.
Detroit - Another great start has gone by the wayside as the team has struggled in recent contests. The Washington loss was the most troubling but the lack of offense is a concern. Babcock will look to shake it up before long.
Edmonton - The early surprise of the season is the young guys in Alberta. Most, including myself, questioned the teams goaltending but it has been marvelous so far. I don't think the success can last but the confidence it is building on the young talented team shouldn't be understated.
Toronto - Another early success story that has the puck crazed town in a frenzy. I think it is a little early to get excited though as Toronto has had a very favorable early schedule. Let's see how they do against the better teams. But with Boston and Montreal struggling, Toronto could be the beneficiary.
Buffalo - Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals.
Tampa won both of these contests but Buffalo has gone 6-2 in their other contests to send a pretty clear message that they will be in the thick of the race throughout the season. With Boston and Montreal struggling in the early going, Buffalo has a very good chance of capturing the division title.
Carolina - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again.
Carolina survives the early road trip but could be in much better position had they managed to avoid a couple overtime and shutout losses. For a team on the edge, every single point counts.
Colorado - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use.
Colorado really couldn't have asked for a better start. The challenge now is to find a way to get Duchesne back to form and maintain the early success. This team has started strong before only to fade during the winter months.
New York Rangers - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations.
Normally a .500 record on such a road-trip would be decent but the Rangers are continuing to show signs of the team that had trouble making the playoffs the last couple years, not a team improving. 3 losses after regulation have really hurt their confidence. Dropping the first game back at Madison Square Garden didn't exactly make the fans feel comfortable. Not to worry, today's word is the Rangers have called Sean "The Savior" Avery back to the big club. Oh Boy!
Montreal - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.
Things were looking extremely bleak for the Canadiens until they strung together 3 straight wins against Philly and Boston. We'll see over the next couple weeks if they can maintain some success.
Washington - Oct 29 at Vancouver - This team can only measure itself against the best.
If this was the only game of importance, Washington failed the test. Fortunately, they have passed just about every other one including decisive victories against Philly and Detroit. But following those with losses to Edmonton and Vancouver, there are still questions about consistency. To get where the Capitals want to be, they cannot afford to mail in any games.
Florida - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together.
Florida has had it's share of good and bad to start the season, somewhat expected from a roster with so much turnover. The next month will be critical as the team tries to settle into a rhythm and stay in the hunt.
Elsewhere around the league
Boston - What has started bad has only gotten worse. The latest was 2 losses to arch rival Montreal. There is too much talent on this team to stay down but the team is quickly realizing that being on top means every opponent comes in focused and ready to play. Boston needs to learn that anything less than 100% isn't going to get it done.
Philadelphia - A great start to the season has hit a minor slide. This isn't surprising considering the amount of turnover on the roster. What is surprising is that the defense has struggled so much. Pronger's absence hurts but good teams need to overcome this kind of loss. Bryzgolov needs to earn his pay in every start.
Detroit - Another great start has gone by the wayside as the team has struggled in recent contests. The Washington loss was the most troubling but the lack of offense is a concern. Babcock will look to shake it up before long.
Edmonton - The early surprise of the season is the young guys in Alberta. Most, including myself, questioned the teams goaltending but it has been marvelous so far. I don't think the success can last but the confidence it is building on the young talented team shouldn't be understated.
Toronto - Another early success story that has the puck crazed town in a frenzy. I think it is a little early to get excited though as Toronto has had a very favorable early schedule. Let's see how they do against the better teams. But with Boston and Montreal struggling, Toronto could be the beneficiary.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
NHL Storylines
After a couple weeks of play, "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions have passed. As promised, I'm here to evaluate them.
Vancouver - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experiencing a funk from their failure.
Vancouver lost both of these contests despite playing good for portions of each game. The problem is the team can't seem to stay focussed for a full 60 minutes. Even in the games they won, they were seriously challenged by their opponents. It's more than a little obvious the team is rusty. You could call it a "Cup Hangover" except they didn't win it. You'd think they would have come back more determined. Instead it looks like they are feeling sorry for themselves. The good news is the team has plenty of time to sober up.
Tampa Bay - Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season.
After 6 games, Tampa is 1-3-2 and they are not playing the style of hockey that got them to the Conference Finals just a few months ago. The poor start is going to be a challenge for a young coaching staff. Many teams make a big splash only to fall back a bit the next season. If Tampa can't get the defense under control, they'll find themselves fighting for a playoff spot.
Elsewhere around the league
The real story of the early season isn't at the top of the standings but at the bottom.
Boston - Early struggles mimic the Canucks. Carrying the Cup around all offseason takes its toll. Somehow I doubt Bruin fans are too worried.
San Jose - Another team that should be focussed has come out anything but. How long until the fans start pointing fingers at the usual scapegoats?
Calgary - A slow start is not what this bubble team needed. Keep it up much longer and I fully expect to see a firesale.
Columbus - No team could ill afford a poor start less than Columbus. They did a lot in the offseason to garner some good will with their fans but it has all gone to hell. Wiesnewski's suspension certainly isn't helping. Now with Carter injured, things could unravel.
New York Rangers - They haven't won yet, but they have only played 3 games. But they've got 4 more on the road in Western Canada before returning home. First up Vancouver. The Madison Square Garden fans aren't going to be so welcoming if they come home with only a couple of points.
Nobody wins a championship in October but plenty of teams lose their chance to compete for one. Just last year, the difference between the #2 seed and out of the playoffs was a meager 10 points in the West and only 15 points in the East. That equates to roughly 1 win a month. A team the stuggles early will be fighting all season to make that up.
I'll be checking in again at the end of the month. At that point, I'll have a few more "Circle The Dates" to evaluate plus a better feel on who the surprise teams might be.
Vancouver - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experiencing a funk from their failure.
Vancouver lost both of these contests despite playing good for portions of each game. The problem is the team can't seem to stay focussed for a full 60 minutes. Even in the games they won, they were seriously challenged by their opponents. It's more than a little obvious the team is rusty. You could call it a "Cup Hangover" except they didn't win it. You'd think they would have come back more determined. Instead it looks like they are feeling sorry for themselves. The good news is the team has plenty of time to sober up.
Tampa Bay - Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season.
After 6 games, Tampa is 1-3-2 and they are not playing the style of hockey that got them to the Conference Finals just a few months ago. The poor start is going to be a challenge for a young coaching staff. Many teams make a big splash only to fall back a bit the next season. If Tampa can't get the defense under control, they'll find themselves fighting for a playoff spot.
Elsewhere around the league
The real story of the early season isn't at the top of the standings but at the bottom.
Boston - Early struggles mimic the Canucks. Carrying the Cup around all offseason takes its toll. Somehow I doubt Bruin fans are too worried.
San Jose - Another team that should be focussed has come out anything but. How long until the fans start pointing fingers at the usual scapegoats?
Calgary - A slow start is not what this bubble team needed. Keep it up much longer and I fully expect to see a firesale.
Columbus - No team could ill afford a poor start less than Columbus. They did a lot in the offseason to garner some good will with their fans but it has all gone to hell. Wiesnewski's suspension certainly isn't helping. Now with Carter injured, things could unravel.
New York Rangers - They haven't won yet, but they have only played 3 games. But they've got 4 more on the road in Western Canada before returning home. First up Vancouver. The Madison Square Garden fans aren't going to be so welcoming if they come home with only a couple of points.
Nobody wins a championship in October but plenty of teams lose their chance to compete for one. Just last year, the difference between the #2 seed and out of the playoffs was a meager 10 points in the West and only 15 points in the East. That equates to roughly 1 win a month. A team the stuggles early will be fighting all season to make that up.
I'll be checking in again at the end of the month. At that point, I'll have a few more "Circle The Dates" to evaluate plus a better feel on who the surprise teams might be.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
NHL 2011-2012 Predictions
For once I'm not putting this off to the last moment. Maybe this time I can eliminate the typos and delete the nonsense ramblings.
This year I make predictions with a heavy heart. For the first time in 12 years I won't get to watch NHL hockey in Atlanta. No more cheering for the home team and attending games with Crimson on a weekly basis. I'll watch plenty of hockey on TV but it won't be quite the same.
With that in mind, hopefully you'll understand why I've chosen to ignore one particular team in these predictions. As far as I am concerned, that team doesn't exist and deserves none of my attention. At some point perhaps I'll discuss this team, but now is not that time.
Making these predictions gets harder every year. The difference between the teams gets narrower each year. A team can rise fast with the right free agent acquisition or the breakout of a young star. A another team can fall just as fast as the result of a key injury or a bad trade.
There were some risky moves made during the offseason, some key retirements, a huge lingering injury and some major free agent moves. Each of these will probably impact the race for The Cup. While neither of The Cup finalists made major moves during the offseason, their appearances were not flukes so I suspect they'll be in the thick of it again come next spring.
In addition to a few notes about a team, I’m going to assign them a “trend”. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend. A team has a "trend" value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. There are growing number of teams who could care less about how well they perform in regular season as long as they perform in the playoffs. A few coaches jobs will probably depend on substantial playoff success this season.
Here we go.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [+] – It's a little scary to think this team could be even better but I have my suspicions that last year was a bit of a down year for them as they tried to reinvent themselves a bit. The desire to play a more defensive style was the right approach, but in the process, their prolific offensive attack suffered. In steps what I think was one of the best, if not the best, acquisition of the offseason, goalie Thomas Vokoun. Not only did they manage to sign one of the best free agent goalies for pocket change, they were also able to move one of their extra goalies for 1st and 2nd round picks next spring. All that being said, I don't think goaltending was at the heart of their problems. I do expect the confidence the team will have playing in front of Vokoun should translate into opening up the offense again.
Every year the Caps go in search of veteran leadership while waiting for homegrown leadership to emerge. It's the last key piece to getting this team deep in the playoffs. Adding Brouwer, Halpern and Hamrlik should be boosts at both ends but it is time the some of the stars take on this burden. An extended Cup run should be the only thing that keeps coach Boudreau in the fold as another playoff collapse with this much talent would be historic in a bad way.
Circle The Dates: Oct 29 at Vancouver, Mar 29 at Boston - This team can only measure itself against the best.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [nt] – No team faces a bigger question mark than the Penguins, and it all centers around the health of their star player, Sidney Crosby. Prior to last season's injury, Crosby was on a tear unlike any seen since the time of Gretzky. The concussion he suffered in January changed all that. As I write this, Crosby is still uncleared for physical contact. All indications are Crosby will return this season, but it probably won't be right away. There is still a slight possibility he'll never return. I expect the franchise to be extremely cautious. Last season through a feat of great coaching they were able to be competitive without Crosby and Malkin around but their loss hurt tremendously once the playoffs started. Without Crosby in the mix, this team falls back. With him they are a serious contender for finalist from the East.
The roster is much the same with their biggest addition being Steve Sullivan to add a bit more grit. The key player may be Neal who came over at the trade deadline last season. He'll need to become the force he was in Dallas to keep this team afloat if Crosby is out for a long time. The defense is sound and Fluery, in goal, is above average. Fluery better continue to grow though as the top of the East is getting loaded consistently great goalies.
Circle The Dates: Jan 1, March 15 - The opponents aren't the key but rather is Crosby back on ice. Without him the best the Penguins can expect is another early playoff exit.
3. Boston Bruins [+] – It took few years of playoff disappointment, but a group littered with talent finally won the big one. From the looks of it, the team is setup to be in the hunt for years to come. With the experience of winning The Cup now in the back pocket of much of the roster, they'll understand just what it takes to get there. While the grind of the long playoff run and the offseason celebration can make it hard to repeat, I suspect this squad to handle it quite well. With a deep roster capable of overcoming injuries, they should be setup nicely for another run come spring.
Circle The Dates: Dec 5 - The team starts with a very favorable home heavy schedule before hitting the road on this date. If they are aren't in the top 4 at this point, it could be a sign of trouble.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [-] – No team made more risky moves in the offseason than Philly. The team traded away two significant offensive stars (Carter/Richards) and let a couple others walk in free agency. It was an odd move for a team that appeared to be on the cusp of The Cup. Look a little deeper though and the moves make some sense. First and foremost, there are questions about how the next CBA will affect teams/payroll. If nothing else, these moves give the Flyers much more flexibility moving forward. Also, these moves allow the Flyers to build around emerging stars rather than aging (a term used relatively here) ones. The team is now stocked with offensive potential from top to bottom while still enough veteran grit to hold the team together. Management obviously expects players like Girous and Van Riemsdyk (no longer trade bait) to continue to grow and fill the void. No longer is the locker room filled with players who don't quite buy into the team concept and if the return for the Carter/Richards trade can live up to their expectations, it won't be long before this team is right back near the top. But with all the new pieces I have my doubts that this will come this season. The one player who doesn't fit this mold is Jagr and frankly I'm mystified why they made this move. But it is only a one year contract so there is little risk involved. Talbot may actually prove to be the most significant offensive acquisition.
All that and I didn't bring up goaltending. Obviously the Flyers finally saw what the rest of us have noticed for years and went out and acquired talent capable of stabilizing their goal crease for the next 9 years. They paid a hefty toll for that addition. If only they had made it a couple seasons ago. Bryzgolov's play should improve the defense overall and allow the offensive players to do what they do best, score goals. This move does hamper the development of Sergei Bobrovsky and it'll be an interesting side story to watch.
Finally, there is the health of Chris Pronger. The heart and soul of this team had a tough season last year due to injury and needs to get back in the fold sooner rather than later. Without him the defense is more than a little suspect.
Circle The Dates: Jan 2 vs NYR - After a brutal road stretch between Nov 9 and this date, the Flyers come home to face a division rival in the Winter Classic. If they are still in the thick of the race for the division title, this team could be a Cup contender this year. Otherwise, the patience of the home town folks will be tested.
5. Buffalo Sabres [++] – Talk about making a splash. New ownership took over the team and wasted little time writing checks. $78 millon was dished out to a total of four players. Each of those players SHOULD be capable of improving the Sabres, giving them depth they have lacked in recent years. However, buying a solution is a risky process, just ask the Rangers. There are still big questions about whether these players can mesh and if some of them might be content now that they have the stuffed wallets.
With coach Ruff in command, expect these new additions excel. Although they may not be ready for a Cup run just yet, they should be a serious contender in the East and give Boston a fight in the Northwest Division. The team still lacks superstar level talent up front but with stellar goaltending and plenty of good responsible players throughout the roster, they'll be pegged as this years "surprise" team. Much like Tampa last year, if this team succeeds, it won't be a surprise to me.
Circle The Dates: Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals. Apr 7 at Boston. Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.
6. New York Rangers [++] – The addition of Richards was a BIG one for the Rangers. They desperately needed a quality first-line center with a scoring touch. But Richards isn't the only reason I see the Rangers making a big jump. It is the development of the young players that really stands out. They finally have a group on the upside of their careers instead of the downside.
There are two things they need to worry about. First, Gaborik must stay healthy and put more pucks in the net. Second, they need to manage Lundqvuist better. They are allowing him to start far too many games and with a realistic shot of an extended playoff run, they need to make sure he is rested. With Biron as a quality backup, this shouldn't be an issue.
Circle The Dates - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations. Feb 16. The Rangers finish off a set of games against Philly, New Jersey, Tampa, Philly, Washington, Boston and Chicago, a real test against rivals and some of the league's best.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][+] – The big "surprise" of last season (although let the record show I predicted it) will be back in the hunt once again. However, it is my belief that not all will align quite right this season and the Lightning will probably take a small step back. That's still a huge improvement for a team that was in the dumps less than 2 years ago. It's just further proof what good ownership and management can do. Yzerman was smart to go out an get Roloson last year but he isn't foolish enough to think Roloson can keep it up forever. Signing Garon as his backup was nice insurance. Perhaps they'd be interested in Broduer if injury or declining skills hit their roster.
The Lightning are dynamic on offense and play a defensive game that frustrates opponents. It's a modified trap system but I suspect teams will be better prepared for it this time around. The key to their playoff run was hard-working two-way forwards, something Yzerman learned a ton about in Detroit. Some of those players have now moved on so it is up to the replacements to continue the success.
Defense has a nice mix of young and old but could really use another piece to get them to the next level. St. Louis and Lecavalier aren't getting any younger so this team's future has a few questions marks.
Circle The Dates: Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season. Feb 18 vs Washington. Tampa Bay gave the Caps fits in the division last year and we should know where that race stands at this point.
8. Carolina Hurricanes [nt] – Just when it looked like the team was headed for a long slide, along comes a rookie of the year, Skinner, to breathe some new life into the franchise. There are still glaring holes all around the roster but with quality coaching, great goaltending and a little more bulk up front they could compete for a lower seed.
The Canes made some wise moves in the offseason, mostly involving retaining quality players like Pirkanen and Ruutu. But the additions of Kaberle and backup goalie Boucher shouldn't be overlooked. For a team running on a tight budget, they did quite well.
Circle The Dates - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again. Mar 6 at Washington - After a nice home stretch the Canes hit the road for 12 of their last 17. If they aren't firmly in the playoff race at this point, their season is over. Schedule makers were not friendly to the Canes.
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9. New Jersey Devils [-] – Last year I said "always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs". Nothing could have described their season any better. I think they are still in that boat so they've got to hope that Parise is fully recovered, Broduer doesn't get injured again and no one else, particularly on defense is out for an extended period. This isn't the old Devils. There is little depth on the roster and no cash to bring more talent aboard. But make no mistake, Kovalchuk and Parise are world class talents. Unfortunately, the roster around them is filled with declining players and set of youngsters with minimal upside. This is the last year of Broduer's contract and probably his last hurrah. You've got to wonder if both parties wouldn't have been better off ending the partnership. I don't like to count the Devils out as they usually find a way to make it happen. But with several other teams on the rise and the top teams getting better I suspect they'll be out of it come playoff time.
Circle the Dates: Dec 20 vs NYR - Coming off a long stretch of road games, the Devils return home to face a division rival heading in the opposite direction (up). If the Devils are still in the thick of the race at this point, Broduer may have his one more chance in NJ. March 15 - Trade dealine. Will Broduer consider a move to a contender for another shot. It is hard to predict who that contender might be because goaltending is pretty locked up for most. But make no mistake about it, the call will be Broduer's to make.
10. Toronto Maple Leafs {+] – After thinking the Leafs had turned the corner, they struggled far too much in the first half of the season. This franchise is a perfect example of how hard it is to recover when a team begins to slide. Youth on the roster is starting to come together but I don't think there is enough quality experienced talent to carry them along. They could make a push for a lower seed if goaltender Reimer carries the team but that will be tough. The Leafs failure to land an offensive impact player in the offseason really hurts their chances. Look for GM Burke to try to find that player before the season is over.
Circle The Dates - Dec 22 vs Buffalo. The Leafs play three straight home games against Vancouver, LA and Buffalo before the Christmas holiday. How well they compete in these games will signal how far the team has come. Trade Deadline - See if Burke can add some significant pieces because the fans are getting restless.
11. Montreal Canadiens [-] – Montreal is historically a tough team for me to pick, especially in the regular season. Their roster always screams mediocrity and looks like it'll be on the boundary come playoff time. This season is no different. Until last season I had difficulty accepting Carey Price as a legitimate top flight goaltender. Now, he appears to be the real deal and the strength of club.
The team made few acquisitions in the offseason, so they had better hope Markov can return from his injury and make a big impact. Gomez is sliding quickly and I'm sure Montreal would love to deal his huge salary. With no real superstars and mediocre depth, they are going to find it difficult to make the playoffs with other teams improving around them.
Circle The Dates - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.
12. New York Islanders [O4][++] – Is this finally the year the Islanders plethora of high draft picks get the team to the playoffs? I just don't see it happening. There are far too many quality teams out there and with big question marks in goal and on defense, they still have a ways to go. Ideally the Islanders would add a veteran or two to show the way but it has got to be tough to convince a veteran to join a team with so little recent success, a history of coaching changes and an arena that is about as nice as a truck stop restroom.
That's not to say this team isn't taking the right approach. They've got a nice group of young players growing together and I expect their offense to surprise some teams. If one of the goalies can become a consistent performer, maybe a trade deadline acquisition or two could get them to the playoffs.
Circle The Date - Jan 10-19. Dates against Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, Washington and Philly in a little over a week will really test the roster. If they have truly grown, they'll show it here. Otherwise, its "maybe next year" again.
13. Florida Panthers [++] – Few teams made more quality additions to their roster than the Panthers. With tons of cap room to work with and a GM ready to make some moves, the Panthers added players up and down their lineup. On opening night more than half their roster will be new players.
On the surface, every addition looks like an improvement. Unfortunately, Florida had a long way to go and even this improved roster will have a challenge making the playoffs. With a new coach added as well, it is hard to gauge where this team might be come April. I could envision them finishing anywhere from #6 to #15. It might be up to a mixed bag of goaltenders to hold the team together as coaches and players find their roles/style.
Circle The Date - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together. Mar 17 vs Buffalo. After this game the Panthers finish with 9 of 12 on the road. Any hope of making the playoffs depends on being firmly in on Mar 17.
14. Ottawa Senators [-] – Right about now it has got to be tough to be a Senators fan. It wasn't that long ago that the team was in the finals and a perennial Cup contender. But age, poor drafts, poor moves and some bad luck have caught up with this team. Sure, Alfredsson and Spezza are still around but the rest of the roster is full of youngsters just finding their way at the NHL level. Although I think they are headed in the right direction, it is going to be more than a couple years before this team will get a sniff of the playoffs. If I've learned anything in the last few years of making these predictions, it is that the climb back to the top takes a lot longer than the fall to the bottom.
The Senators were smart to make some big moves at the trade deadline last season and would be well advised to try to do it again come spring. Alfredsson deserves to make the call on whether or not he wants to be traded but I'm guessing management would be happy to make it happen. But with his dwindling skills, the return won't be enough to turn things around quickly. The Senators desperately need Michalek and Gonchar to step up this season and give fans a little faith that ownership is spending money in the right places.
Circle The Dates: Feb 3 vs NYI - After playing 9 of 10 on the road, the Senators fate will probably be sealed. Check the roster and see how many players remain or are headed out of town.
Conference Notes:
I'm reasonably confident the top 7 will see the playoffs. The ordering, especially within the Atlantic Division, will depend a lot on health (Crosby, Pronger, Staahl) and the ability of coaches to manage new parts (Philly, Buffalo). Any of the top 7 teams is capable of winning the conference but it is Washington, Pittsburgh and Boston who are in the best position to do it if barring injury. I'm putting a lot of faith into prospect that Crosby will play a significant part of the season.
The real battle will be for the #8 spot yet again. It would be neat to think that a rising team such as Toronto, Islanders or Panthers could make it but I'm inclined to go with the team with the solid, proven goaltending.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [nt] – Last year had to be a heartbreaker for this bunch. Unable to close out the series on home ice after such a successful regular season takes a toll on a team. Now, the journey begins again with basically the same team in the fold. Like Washington, the regular season will mean little to this squad and frankly, anything but a Cup Championship will be a disappointment.
There are more than a few Canuck fans and myself wondering if Luongo has the mental makeup to win the Cup. Fortunately, the Canucks have plenty of talent around him and almost all of it as at peak or on the upside. Even if Luongo collapses they have emerging backup ready to step in. With a division stocked with patsies, it is hard to see this team not winning the conference again. Does the weak division hurt them in the long run?
Circle The Dates - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experience a funk from their failure. Jun 15 - If the Canucks haven't made the final, will the city riot again?
2. Detroit Red Wings [nt] – The Red Wings have more than a few questions this year but age is NOT one of them. The key to a successful season is continuing to get secondary scoring from the likes of Cleary, Bertuzzi, Filpulla and Hudler while the younger players become an even larger part of the offense.
The loss of Rafalski could be a blessing in disquise. While they'll miss him most on the powerplay, he had become a turnover machine in recent years. His retirement will allow some younger players who are ready for more ice time to get a real chance to proof their worth. The additions of White and Commodore could be great bargains as both fit the Wings mold well, but there are a couple of youngsters who'll push them hard for ice time. Fortunately, Lidstrom is around for another season so the biggest transition won't happen for at least another year.
Osgood is no longer around as backup goalie but he was too injured to be dependable any more. He'll do just fine in a coaching role. Conklin should be a fine replacement.
For once, the Wings are not pressed against the cap. In fact, they have enough available to make a substantial move if good deal becomes available. Another top 6 forward would make this team scary again.
I don't know why, but I have a feeling Datsyuk is going to have a huge year. Not 50 goals but close to 40 with plenty of assists too.
Circle The Dates - Feb 8 Edmonton. No, it isn't the opponent. At this point the Wings will have finished a brutal stretch of 21 of 31 on the road (WTF!). Their record at this time should be a good indicator of whether they can win the division, conference or the Cup. It's also a time the Wings start looking for a deal if they don't quite measure up.
3. San Jose Sharks [nt] – It's tough to get a good read on this team because the moves they made could be get them the all elusive Cup or backfire, allowing a couple teams in the conference to leapfrog them. I tend to think the moves are a good thing. This team desperately need more scoring punch from their defense and Burns gives them that. Giving up Heatley to get Havlat might hurt in the regular season but should make them more effective come playoff time.
This is the other team that can only consider it a success if they get to finals. The difference is this team faces much tougher competition in their division than either the Capitals or Canucks. But survive that competition and it just might help them make the biggest step.
One problem I see with the roster is a lack of effective depth beyond the first two lines. Either the players they've got need to step it up or they'll have to make some more moves because the rest of the competition is much deeper.
Circle The Date - Feb 28 vs Philly - A 9 game round trip ends with a test again revamped, young Philly roster. A good measuring stick. Apr 5/7 - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.
4. Chicago Blackhawks [+] – When we last last left the Hawks, they had rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to force a 7th game against the Canucks in round one of the playoffs, only to fall in a tightly contested game 7. It wasn't excatly a banner year for this team but I don't think it was shocking based on how much they had to shuffle their roster after their championship the season before.
Now, the team is one year beyond that shuffle and one step closer to being a serious contender once again. While I expect their full recovery is still another year in the future, I do expect them to make another step in the right direction. Moving the overpaid Campbell will make moving forward MUCH easier but it'll come at the expense of some depth on defense. The team is stocked with superstars but currently lacks some of the depth found elsewhere in the Western Conference. However, that depth is coming as all the assets they acquired in trades will be NHL ready pretty soon.
A lot of the team's success depends on continued development of their young goalie, Crawford. If he sputters, it'll be up to the inexperienced Salak or the reclamation project, Emery, to save the team. While I think they'll come up short in their quest to win the division title, they won't let Detroit run away with it as easily as last year.
Circle The Dates - Jan 20 vs Florida - Afer this game the Blackhawks head on a 9 game road trip. They need to be in the thick of the race before then or making the playoffs may be tough. March 21/25 - home games against Vancouver and Nashville should test just how playoff ready the squad is.
5. Los Angeles Kings [++] – It is my opinion the Kings made the perfect move in the offseason. They've been patient allowing their young roster to develop and now they are ready to make a serious push in the Western Conference. Waiting on further young prospects to push them over the hump and the opportunity pass them by. It was the perfect time to morgage some future assets for proven veterans.
Add Richards to the mix is just what this team needed and at a price that won't cause them purge young talent in the future. If Gagne can be even half effective and their injured players stay healthy, this will be one dangerous team.
How far this team goes depends on how well the new players blend into the system and whether or not the goalies can perform as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. The next step for this team is to win a couple of playoff series. They appear ready to do that but that next step is a tough one for young team. Just ask the Caps.
Circle The Dates - Dec 13 - Dec 28 - A stretch featuring games against Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago - A very good measuring stick against consistent playoff proven talent. Mar 16 at Anaheim - The end of 15 of 20 on the road and right near the trade deadline. Is the team ready for playoff level hockey?
6. Anaheim Ducks [+] – A team that looked like it was heading downward managed to claw its way to respectability on the back of one of the best lines in hockey (Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry). Fortuantely for them, Selanne decided to play another year because they desperately need more secondary scoring.
There is some young talent that is just starting to make an impact, especially on the back end. They'll need their development arch to continue upwards if they want in on the mix. But the real question mark is in goal. Hiller appears to be back after suffering through a long bout with vertigo. Ellis is an adequate backup but if Hiller falters the team will probably follow.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Det - Long road trip ends against a team the Ducks like to measure themselves against. How's Hiller health? Can Perry continue his hot streak? Feb 23 at Carolina - End of a tough 8 game road trip. If they are still in the hunt at this point, they are in great shape.
7. Nashville Predators [-] – One of the better feel good stories of last season ended with Predators finally winning a playoff series. No longer were they the butt of jokes but were now seen for what they really are, a superbly well-coached team with handful of very good players in a town that has embraced their underdog status.
The problem now becomes how to take the next step. The reality is it will be damn tough for a team on a meager budget to crack through against big spenders in the West like Vancouver, Detroit, Chicago and San Jose. With LA on the rise, Nashville may have to settle for a 6-8 spot and hoping the cards fall right in the playoffs.
Unfortunately the task gets harder when players start leaving for more money. Nashville has managed to keep their best players for at least another year but their depth has taken a blow with the departures of Ward, Franson, Sullivan, Goc, O'Brien and Belak. In steps more youth. At least they still have great coaching and great goaltending going for them and for that reason alone I won't count them out. As much as I think Detroit deserves first crack at moving to the Eastern Conference under realignment, it might be interesting to see how the Predators would do against that bunch.
Circle The Dates - Nov 12 vs Montreal - a road heavy opening schedule (10 of first 15) finally ends. Predators cannot afford to dig a deep whole against the talented conference. Mar 10 vs Detroit - Heading into the trade deadline this division rivalry could determine whether the Predators are buyers or sellers.
8. St. Louis Blues {+] – Once again the Blues enter the season with hopes of finally returning to the playoffs. If you recall, last year got off to a great start before a series of injuries seriously hampered the club. Management feels the squad is finally on the cusp so they went out and obtained some leadership to push them to the next level. Although I believe they might have jumped the gun by a year or two, there is little doubt this team is on the rise.
Arnott and Langenbrunner bring some grit and determination the roster has lacked. The trade with Colorado that got them Stewart and Shattenkirk should jump start the offense. As long as Halak can live up to his big contract, the team should be in the fight for a playoff spot. With ownership a bit in flux, it'll be interesting to see if they make any more moves if the team is in the hunt.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Minn - Another team with a brutal stretch of road games to start the season (11 of 15). In a competitive Western Conference, St. Louis must emerge from this stretch close to .500 of risk being on the outside yet again. Mar 10 vs Columbus - I'm not sure who the Blues pissed off but after the trade deadline, not many home games for the Blues. Better have a playoff spot sewn up by this contest.
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9. Columbus Blue Jackets [++] – The Blue Jackets are in a precarious position. The team has suffered through mediocrity for far too long and the fans are starting to lose patience. At least owenership appears to get the picture and went out and finally made some moves to excite the fan base and hopefully push them into the playoffs.
Nash finally has some weapons around him courtesy of the trade between the Jackets and the Flyers. Jeff Carter arrives and instantly becomes part of a very strong first line (Nash, Carter, Umberger). Knowing they needed a good puck moving defensemen as well, Wisniewski was added as well. A recent contract extension to Umberger tells the fans they are committed to keeping the core intact.
The main problem remains the mystery in net. After getting off to a fast start at the NHL level, Mason has tumbled quick. With a competitive Western Conference it is imperitive he regains his form or the Jackets will be on the outside looking in yet again.
Circle The Dates - Jan 14 vs San Jose - This game concludes a tough stretch (Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose) which should be a good measuring stick to see if Columbus is significantly improved. Mar 26/28 - home and home with a Detroit team that usually has its way with the Jackets. Have things really changed?
10. Minnesota Wild [+] – Outside of the Flyers, the Wild probably made the boldesst moves in the offseason. The only problem with these bold moves is they sacrifice strength in one area (defense) to hopefully make the team stronger in another (offense). On a team lacking depth, these kind of moves often do nothing more than excite a fanbase. In this case, that was probably part of the plan.
That being said, Heatley and Setoguchi should be nice additions up front. Both are dangerous players and should allow Koivu to be even more effective. But Heatley has been on the decline for a couple years despite being relatively young and injury free. Their young coach Yao's biggest task will be finding a way to get more out of him.
To bring those players in, the Wild had to give up Burns and Havlat. While Havlat's loss can be filled by Heatley, Burns will be much harder to replace. Year after year teams go out in search of puck moving defensemen that are good defenders as well. The Wild may end up regretting this move. Once again it'll be up to the young coach to find a way to cobble together a decent defense out of a hodge podge of defenders. In a conference full of dynamic offenses, this will be key.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 - A difficult set of opponents graces the Wild's early schedule (Detroit x3, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Vancouver x2). If the Wild are competitive in these games, it'll set the tone for a good season. Feb 9 vs Vancouver - Back from a long stretch of road games (14 of 20) to play division rival. Are they still in the race?
11. Calgary Flames [-] – This squad keeps kidding itself. They refuse to accept that they are a marginal team at best and are seriously in need of rebuilding. Instead of accepting that fact and moving some assets for propsects/picks, they keep trying to bring in past-their-prime veterans in hopes giving their frenzied fanbase another taste of playoff hockey.
The team now lacks depth in just about every facet of the game. The have Iginla and Kiprusoff but both are are well past their prime. There is a little talent coming up through the ranks and if one of those two stars gets injured or tumbles, this team could easily drop to the bottom of the pack. The team reminds me of the Leafs of a decade ago, desperately trying to hang on to the past. It won't be long before provincial rival, Edmonton, makes them an after thought in the West.
Circle The Dates - Dec 10 vs Edmonton - With the Flames ready for a brutal road stretch (11 of 13) they get an opportunity to prove they are still kings of the province. Mar 13 vs San Jose - The trade deadline looms. Are the Flames willing to embrace the rebuild now?
12. Edmonton Oilers [++] – The climb up has been a long one for the Oilers and there are more than a few rungs left on the ladder. Although I don't expect the Oilers to get into the playoffs this year, I do expect them to crawl out of the cellar and pass a couple of teams.
The youth is coming together nicely and there is more in the pipeline. For the first time in years, the Oilers will probably send the top pick back to juniors for more seasoning. The addition of some veterans (Smyth, Belanger and Hordichuk) should help bring the kids along. I can almost understand the addition of "pylon" Sutton on D considering the lack of talent on the back end but signing Eager, especially to a multi-year deal, was plain silly.
The Oilers still have question marks in goal and would be well served to keep an eye on the waiver wire or trade market for a young goalie with some promise. Khabibulin isn't getting any younger and Dubnyk is questionable at best.
Circle The Dates - Jan 7 at Dallas - end of a 7 game road trip and about the halfway point of the season. Are the Oiler near .500? .400? Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?
13. Dallas Stars [-] – Losing Richards is a huge blow for a team that had it sights set on returning to the playoffs again. It leaves a huge hole in the lineup that may take years to fill. The Stars have brought in some decent talent to fill out the roster (Ryder, Fiddler, Dvorak) but these players are little more than filler for a team that desperately needs more 1st/2nd line talent.
A new coach, Gulutzan, takes over so it is a little difficult to imagine how he'll do with this less than average group. The defense appears sound but not dangerous and Thrasher fans can tell you how tough it is to rely on Lehtonen as your everyday starter in net. With ownership still in turmoil, spending some of that unused cap for improvements is out of the question.
Circle The Dates - Nov 19 vs San Jose - About 30 games in, see how the coach is doing, how Lehtonen is holding up and where the teams confidence is at. Mar 6 at Vancouver - end a Western Canada trip right before the trade deadline. Will the Stars unload more talent in hopes of restocking the roster?
14. Colorado Avalanche [-] – Just when it looked like the Avalanche were turning the corner and beginning the climb back to respecatability, the team made some trades that might set them back quite a bit. At least the team recognized they couldn't go any further with horrible talent in net. Not only did they manage to acquire Varlamov from Washington, they also signed Giguere as a free agent. But the price they paid for Varlamov (1st and 2nd rounder) is highly questionable. For a team working on a restricted budget and lacking depth, giving up picks can be suicide.
There is still some decent talent and a lot of speed but the lack of depth is scary. There is also a glaring lack of leadership on the roster. The team had better stay healthy or they'll quickly find the bottom of the pack.
Circle The Dates - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use. Mar vs Pit - Many road games after this one before the trade deadline. Will the Avalanche be tempted to trade more assets again?
15. Phoenix Coyotes [--] – Every time it looks as though this team has its financial concerns under control, another twist in the story takes place. There's a real danger lying ahead for this team and the stress may finally get to the team.
In past seasons, the team has relied on strong team defense and very good goaltending to keep them in the playoff hunt. Now that their star goalie has headed for the greener (read $$$) pastures of Philadelphia, the team has a gaping whole. While Smith and LaBarbera are serviceable, they won't steal many games. For a team already on the boundary that could spell trouble.
Elsewhere the team has some talent but little stardom. The cast gets even thinner with the losses of Fiddler, Belanger, Jovanovki and Ebbet. Each of their replacements is a less skilled player. The only strong point that remains is their coaching staff. But if even they get the best out of this crew, I don't think they make the playoffs.
Dec 31 at Minnesota - The clock strikes midnight and the year ends with the Coyotes in the middle of an extended road trip. Is their season already done? Will they stay in Phoenix? Is anybody watching? Feb 13 vs Vancouver a brutal homestand against some of the best the NHL has to offer has ended. Has the Coyotes brief rise already ended?
Conference Note :
The top 5 are virtual locks to make the playoffs. The Canucks will likely cruise to the top on the weakness of the Northwest Division. San Jose and Detroit will face very stiff challenges on their way to a division title. I would have liked to pick Nashville higher but there we simply too many departures to justify it. The Central Division looks to be extremely competitive and Columbus's chances to make the playoffs may have taken a hit when Wiesnewski was suspened to start the season. Every point will count in what will likely be a very close race for #6-#13.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Pittsburgh vs Washington
The league and network will be drooling over this magic matchup. The only way it happens though is if Crosby is playing. The Rangers could be a darkhorse if there defense can hold up and Lundqvuist isn't burnt out.
WEST : San Jose vs Detroit
There are a lot of quality teams in the West who could make it this far and health will likely be the determining factor in the playoff series. I think the additions the Wings have made will improve the team signficantly and Burns is the player that'll put the Sharks back in the conference finale.
FINALS : Pittsburgh over San Jose
San Jose makes the next step by beating the Wings in the playoffs for the third straight time (YUCK! I would prefer a more magical end to the Lidstom era). San Jose's depth finally gets exposed by Pittsburgh.
I'm going to try to comment each time on of the "Circle The Dates" passes. I promise those comments will be very brief. Then again, I thought this would be about a third of it's final size.
This year I make predictions with a heavy heart. For the first time in 12 years I won't get to watch NHL hockey in Atlanta. No more cheering for the home team and attending games with Crimson on a weekly basis. I'll watch plenty of hockey on TV but it won't be quite the same.
With that in mind, hopefully you'll understand why I've chosen to ignore one particular team in these predictions. As far as I am concerned, that team doesn't exist and deserves none of my attention. At some point perhaps I'll discuss this team, but now is not that time.
Making these predictions gets harder every year. The difference between the teams gets narrower each year. A team can rise fast with the right free agent acquisition or the breakout of a young star. A another team can fall just as fast as the result of a key injury or a bad trade.
There were some risky moves made during the offseason, some key retirements, a huge lingering injury and some major free agent moves. Each of these will probably impact the race for The Cup. While neither of The Cup finalists made major moves during the offseason, their appearances were not flukes so I suspect they'll be in the thick of it again come next spring.
In addition to a few notes about a team, I’m going to assign them a “trend”. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend. A team has a "trend" value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. There are growing number of teams who could care less about how well they perform in regular season as long as they perform in the playoffs. A few coaches jobs will probably depend on substantial playoff success this season.
Here we go.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [+] – It's a little scary to think this team could be even better but I have my suspicions that last year was a bit of a down year for them as they tried to reinvent themselves a bit. The desire to play a more defensive style was the right approach, but in the process, their prolific offensive attack suffered. In steps what I think was one of the best, if not the best, acquisition of the offseason, goalie Thomas Vokoun. Not only did they manage to sign one of the best free agent goalies for pocket change, they were also able to move one of their extra goalies for 1st and 2nd round picks next spring. All that being said, I don't think goaltending was at the heart of their problems. I do expect the confidence the team will have playing in front of Vokoun should translate into opening up the offense again.
Every year the Caps go in search of veteran leadership while waiting for homegrown leadership to emerge. It's the last key piece to getting this team deep in the playoffs. Adding Brouwer, Halpern and Hamrlik should be boosts at both ends but it is time the some of the stars take on this burden. An extended Cup run should be the only thing that keeps coach Boudreau in the fold as another playoff collapse with this much talent would be historic in a bad way.
Circle The Dates: Oct 29 at Vancouver, Mar 29 at Boston - This team can only measure itself against the best.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [nt] – No team faces a bigger question mark than the Penguins, and it all centers around the health of their star player, Sidney Crosby. Prior to last season's injury, Crosby was on a tear unlike any seen since the time of Gretzky. The concussion he suffered in January changed all that. As I write this, Crosby is still uncleared for physical contact. All indications are Crosby will return this season, but it probably won't be right away. There is still a slight possibility he'll never return. I expect the franchise to be extremely cautious. Last season through a feat of great coaching they were able to be competitive without Crosby and Malkin around but their loss hurt tremendously once the playoffs started. Without Crosby in the mix, this team falls back. With him they are a serious contender for finalist from the East.
The roster is much the same with their biggest addition being Steve Sullivan to add a bit more grit. The key player may be Neal who came over at the trade deadline last season. He'll need to become the force he was in Dallas to keep this team afloat if Crosby is out for a long time. The defense is sound and Fluery, in goal, is above average. Fluery better continue to grow though as the top of the East is getting loaded consistently great goalies.
Circle The Dates: Jan 1, March 15 - The opponents aren't the key but rather is Crosby back on ice. Without him the best the Penguins can expect is another early playoff exit.
3. Boston Bruins [+] – It took few years of playoff disappointment, but a group littered with talent finally won the big one. From the looks of it, the team is setup to be in the hunt for years to come. With the experience of winning The Cup now in the back pocket of much of the roster, they'll understand just what it takes to get there. While the grind of the long playoff run and the offseason celebration can make it hard to repeat, I suspect this squad to handle it quite well. With a deep roster capable of overcoming injuries, they should be setup nicely for another run come spring.
Circle The Dates: Dec 5 - The team starts with a very favorable home heavy schedule before hitting the road on this date. If they are aren't in the top 4 at this point, it could be a sign of trouble.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [-] – No team made more risky moves in the offseason than Philly. The team traded away two significant offensive stars (Carter/Richards) and let a couple others walk in free agency. It was an odd move for a team that appeared to be on the cusp of The Cup. Look a little deeper though and the moves make some sense. First and foremost, there are questions about how the next CBA will affect teams/payroll. If nothing else, these moves give the Flyers much more flexibility moving forward. Also, these moves allow the Flyers to build around emerging stars rather than aging (a term used relatively here) ones. The team is now stocked with offensive potential from top to bottom while still enough veteran grit to hold the team together. Management obviously expects players like Girous and Van Riemsdyk (no longer trade bait) to continue to grow and fill the void. No longer is the locker room filled with players who don't quite buy into the team concept and if the return for the Carter/Richards trade can live up to their expectations, it won't be long before this team is right back near the top. But with all the new pieces I have my doubts that this will come this season. The one player who doesn't fit this mold is Jagr and frankly I'm mystified why they made this move. But it is only a one year contract so there is little risk involved. Talbot may actually prove to be the most significant offensive acquisition.
All that and I didn't bring up goaltending. Obviously the Flyers finally saw what the rest of us have noticed for years and went out and acquired talent capable of stabilizing their goal crease for the next 9 years. They paid a hefty toll for that addition. If only they had made it a couple seasons ago. Bryzgolov's play should improve the defense overall and allow the offensive players to do what they do best, score goals. This move does hamper the development of Sergei Bobrovsky and it'll be an interesting side story to watch.
Finally, there is the health of Chris Pronger. The heart and soul of this team had a tough season last year due to injury and needs to get back in the fold sooner rather than later. Without him the defense is more than a little suspect.
Circle The Dates: Jan 2 vs NYR - After a brutal road stretch between Nov 9 and this date, the Flyers come home to face a division rival in the Winter Classic. If they are still in the thick of the race for the division title, this team could be a Cup contender this year. Otherwise, the patience of the home town folks will be tested.
5. Buffalo Sabres [++] – Talk about making a splash. New ownership took over the team and wasted little time writing checks. $78 millon was dished out to a total of four players. Each of those players SHOULD be capable of improving the Sabres, giving them depth they have lacked in recent years. However, buying a solution is a risky process, just ask the Rangers. There are still big questions about whether these players can mesh and if some of them might be content now that they have the stuffed wallets.
With coach Ruff in command, expect these new additions excel. Although they may not be ready for a Cup run just yet, they should be a serious contender in the East and give Boston a fight in the Northwest Division. The team still lacks superstar level talent up front but with stellar goaltending and plenty of good responsible players throughout the roster, they'll be pegged as this years "surprise" team. Much like Tampa last year, if this team succeeds, it won't be a surprise to me.
Circle The Dates: Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals. Apr 7 at Boston. Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.
6. New York Rangers [++] – The addition of Richards was a BIG one for the Rangers. They desperately needed a quality first-line center with a scoring touch. But Richards isn't the only reason I see the Rangers making a big jump. It is the development of the young players that really stands out. They finally have a group on the upside of their careers instead of the downside.
There are two things they need to worry about. First, Gaborik must stay healthy and put more pucks in the net. Second, they need to manage Lundqvuist better. They are allowing him to start far too many games and with a realistic shot of an extended playoff run, they need to make sure he is rested. With Biron as a quality backup, this shouldn't be an issue.
Circle The Dates - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations. Feb 16. The Rangers finish off a set of games against Philly, New Jersey, Tampa, Philly, Washington, Boston and Chicago, a real test against rivals and some of the league's best.
7. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][+] – The big "surprise" of last season (although let the record show I predicted it) will be back in the hunt once again. However, it is my belief that not all will align quite right this season and the Lightning will probably take a small step back. That's still a huge improvement for a team that was in the dumps less than 2 years ago. It's just further proof what good ownership and management can do. Yzerman was smart to go out an get Roloson last year but he isn't foolish enough to think Roloson can keep it up forever. Signing Garon as his backup was nice insurance. Perhaps they'd be interested in Broduer if injury or declining skills hit their roster.
The Lightning are dynamic on offense and play a defensive game that frustrates opponents. It's a modified trap system but I suspect teams will be better prepared for it this time around. The key to their playoff run was hard-working two-way forwards, something Yzerman learned a ton about in Detroit. Some of those players have now moved on so it is up to the replacements to continue the success.
Defense has a nice mix of young and old but could really use another piece to get them to the next level. St. Louis and Lecavalier aren't getting any younger so this team's future has a few questions marks.
Circle The Dates: Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season. Feb 18 vs Washington. Tampa Bay gave the Caps fits in the division last year and we should know where that race stands at this point.
8. Carolina Hurricanes [nt] – Just when it looked like the team was headed for a long slide, along comes a rookie of the year, Skinner, to breathe some new life into the franchise. There are still glaring holes all around the roster but with quality coaching, great goaltending and a little more bulk up front they could compete for a lower seed.
The Canes made some wise moves in the offseason, mostly involving retaining quality players like Pirkanen and Ruutu. But the additions of Kaberle and backup goalie Boucher shouldn't be overlooked. For a team running on a tight budget, they did quite well.
Circle The Dates - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again. Mar 6 at Washington - After a nice home stretch the Canes hit the road for 12 of their last 17. If they aren't firmly in the playoff race at this point, their season is over. Schedule makers were not friendly to the Canes.
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9. New Jersey Devils [-] – Last year I said "always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs". Nothing could have described their season any better. I think they are still in that boat so they've got to hope that Parise is fully recovered, Broduer doesn't get injured again and no one else, particularly on defense is out for an extended period. This isn't the old Devils. There is little depth on the roster and no cash to bring more talent aboard. But make no mistake, Kovalchuk and Parise are world class talents. Unfortunately, the roster around them is filled with declining players and set of youngsters with minimal upside. This is the last year of Broduer's contract and probably his last hurrah. You've got to wonder if both parties wouldn't have been better off ending the partnership. I don't like to count the Devils out as they usually find a way to make it happen. But with several other teams on the rise and the top teams getting better I suspect they'll be out of it come playoff time.
Circle the Dates: Dec 20 vs NYR - Coming off a long stretch of road games, the Devils return home to face a division rival heading in the opposite direction (up). If the Devils are still in the thick of the race at this point, Broduer may have his one more chance in NJ. March 15 - Trade dealine. Will Broduer consider a move to a contender for another shot. It is hard to predict who that contender might be because goaltending is pretty locked up for most. But make no mistake about it, the call will be Broduer's to make.
10. Toronto Maple Leafs {+] – After thinking the Leafs had turned the corner, they struggled far too much in the first half of the season. This franchise is a perfect example of how hard it is to recover when a team begins to slide. Youth on the roster is starting to come together but I don't think there is enough quality experienced talent to carry them along. They could make a push for a lower seed if goaltender Reimer carries the team but that will be tough. The Leafs failure to land an offensive impact player in the offseason really hurts their chances. Look for GM Burke to try to find that player before the season is over.
Circle The Dates - Dec 22 vs Buffalo. The Leafs play three straight home games against Vancouver, LA and Buffalo before the Christmas holiday. How well they compete in these games will signal how far the team has come. Trade Deadline - See if Burke can add some significant pieces because the fans are getting restless.
11. Montreal Canadiens [-] – Montreal is historically a tough team for me to pick, especially in the regular season. Their roster always screams mediocrity and looks like it'll be on the boundary come playoff time. This season is no different. Until last season I had difficulty accepting Carey Price as a legitimate top flight goaltender. Now, he appears to be the real deal and the strength of club.
The team made few acquisitions in the offseason, so they had better hope Markov can return from his injury and make a big impact. Gomez is sliding quickly and I'm sure Montreal would love to deal his huge salary. With no real superstars and mediocre depth, they are going to find it difficult to make the playoffs with other teams improving around them.
Circle The Dates - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.
12. New York Islanders [O4][++] – Is this finally the year the Islanders plethora of high draft picks get the team to the playoffs? I just don't see it happening. There are far too many quality teams out there and with big question marks in goal and on defense, they still have a ways to go. Ideally the Islanders would add a veteran or two to show the way but it has got to be tough to convince a veteran to join a team with so little recent success, a history of coaching changes and an arena that is about as nice as a truck stop restroom.
That's not to say this team isn't taking the right approach. They've got a nice group of young players growing together and I expect their offense to surprise some teams. If one of the goalies can become a consistent performer, maybe a trade deadline acquisition or two could get them to the playoffs.
Circle The Date - Jan 10-19. Dates against Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, Washington and Philly in a little over a week will really test the roster. If they have truly grown, they'll show it here. Otherwise, its "maybe next year" again.
13. Florida Panthers [++] – Few teams made more quality additions to their roster than the Panthers. With tons of cap room to work with and a GM ready to make some moves, the Panthers added players up and down their lineup. On opening night more than half their roster will be new players.
On the surface, every addition looks like an improvement. Unfortunately, Florida had a long way to go and even this improved roster will have a challenge making the playoffs. With a new coach added as well, it is hard to gauge where this team might be come April. I could envision them finishing anywhere from #6 to #15. It might be up to a mixed bag of goaltenders to hold the team together as coaches and players find their roles/style.
Circle The Date - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together. Mar 17 vs Buffalo. After this game the Panthers finish with 9 of 12 on the road. Any hope of making the playoffs depends on being firmly in on Mar 17.
14. Ottawa Senators [-] – Right about now it has got to be tough to be a Senators fan. It wasn't that long ago that the team was in the finals and a perennial Cup contender. But age, poor drafts, poor moves and some bad luck have caught up with this team. Sure, Alfredsson and Spezza are still around but the rest of the roster is full of youngsters just finding their way at the NHL level. Although I think they are headed in the right direction, it is going to be more than a couple years before this team will get a sniff of the playoffs. If I've learned anything in the last few years of making these predictions, it is that the climb back to the top takes a lot longer than the fall to the bottom.
The Senators were smart to make some big moves at the trade deadline last season and would be well advised to try to do it again come spring. Alfredsson deserves to make the call on whether or not he wants to be traded but I'm guessing management would be happy to make it happen. But with his dwindling skills, the return won't be enough to turn things around quickly. The Senators desperately need Michalek and Gonchar to step up this season and give fans a little faith that ownership is spending money in the right places.
Circle The Dates: Feb 3 vs NYI - After playing 9 of 10 on the road, the Senators fate will probably be sealed. Check the roster and see how many players remain or are headed out of town.
Conference Notes:
I'm reasonably confident the top 7 will see the playoffs. The ordering, especially within the Atlantic Division, will depend a lot on health (Crosby, Pronger, Staahl) and the ability of coaches to manage new parts (Philly, Buffalo). Any of the top 7 teams is capable of winning the conference but it is Washington, Pittsburgh and Boston who are in the best position to do it if barring injury. I'm putting a lot of faith into prospect that Crosby will play a significant part of the season.
The real battle will be for the #8 spot yet again. It would be neat to think that a rising team such as Toronto, Islanders or Panthers could make it but I'm inclined to go with the team with the solid, proven goaltending.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [nt] – Last year had to be a heartbreaker for this bunch. Unable to close out the series on home ice after such a successful regular season takes a toll on a team. Now, the journey begins again with basically the same team in the fold. Like Washington, the regular season will mean little to this squad and frankly, anything but a Cup Championship will be a disappointment.
There are more than a few Canuck fans and myself wondering if Luongo has the mental makeup to win the Cup. Fortunately, the Canucks have plenty of talent around him and almost all of it as at peak or on the upside. Even if Luongo collapses they have emerging backup ready to step in. With a division stocked with patsies, it is hard to see this team not winning the conference again. Does the weak division hurt them in the long run?
Circle The Dates - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experience a funk from their failure. Jun 15 - If the Canucks haven't made the final, will the city riot again?
2. Detroit Red Wings [nt] – The Red Wings have more than a few questions this year but age is NOT one of them. The key to a successful season is continuing to get secondary scoring from the likes of Cleary, Bertuzzi, Filpulla and Hudler while the younger players become an even larger part of the offense.
The loss of Rafalski could be a blessing in disquise. While they'll miss him most on the powerplay, he had become a turnover machine in recent years. His retirement will allow some younger players who are ready for more ice time to get a real chance to proof their worth. The additions of White and Commodore could be great bargains as both fit the Wings mold well, but there are a couple of youngsters who'll push them hard for ice time. Fortunately, Lidstrom is around for another season so the biggest transition won't happen for at least another year.
Osgood is no longer around as backup goalie but he was too injured to be dependable any more. He'll do just fine in a coaching role. Conklin should be a fine replacement.
For once, the Wings are not pressed against the cap. In fact, they have enough available to make a substantial move if good deal becomes available. Another top 6 forward would make this team scary again.
I don't know why, but I have a feeling Datsyuk is going to have a huge year. Not 50 goals but close to 40 with plenty of assists too.
Circle The Dates - Feb 8 Edmonton. No, it isn't the opponent. At this point the Wings will have finished a brutal stretch of 21 of 31 on the road (WTF!). Their record at this time should be a good indicator of whether they can win the division, conference or the Cup. It's also a time the Wings start looking for a deal if they don't quite measure up.
3. San Jose Sharks [nt] – It's tough to get a good read on this team because the moves they made could be get them the all elusive Cup or backfire, allowing a couple teams in the conference to leapfrog them. I tend to think the moves are a good thing. This team desperately need more scoring punch from their defense and Burns gives them that. Giving up Heatley to get Havlat might hurt in the regular season but should make them more effective come playoff time.
This is the other team that can only consider it a success if they get to finals. The difference is this team faces much tougher competition in their division than either the Capitals or Canucks. But survive that competition and it just might help them make the biggest step.
One problem I see with the roster is a lack of effective depth beyond the first two lines. Either the players they've got need to step it up or they'll have to make some more moves because the rest of the competition is much deeper.
Circle The Date - Feb 28 vs Philly - A 9 game round trip ends with a test again revamped, young Philly roster. A good measuring stick. Apr 5/7 - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.
4. Chicago Blackhawks [+] – When we last last left the Hawks, they had rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to force a 7th game against the Canucks in round one of the playoffs, only to fall in a tightly contested game 7. It wasn't excatly a banner year for this team but I don't think it was shocking based on how much they had to shuffle their roster after their championship the season before.
Now, the team is one year beyond that shuffle and one step closer to being a serious contender once again. While I expect their full recovery is still another year in the future, I do expect them to make another step in the right direction. Moving the overpaid Campbell will make moving forward MUCH easier but it'll come at the expense of some depth on defense. The team is stocked with superstars but currently lacks some of the depth found elsewhere in the Western Conference. However, that depth is coming as all the assets they acquired in trades will be NHL ready pretty soon.
A lot of the team's success depends on continued development of their young goalie, Crawford. If he sputters, it'll be up to the inexperienced Salak or the reclamation project, Emery, to save the team. While I think they'll come up short in their quest to win the division title, they won't let Detroit run away with it as easily as last year.
Circle The Dates - Jan 20 vs Florida - Afer this game the Blackhawks head on a 9 game road trip. They need to be in the thick of the race before then or making the playoffs may be tough. March 21/25 - home games against Vancouver and Nashville should test just how playoff ready the squad is.
5. Los Angeles Kings [++] – It is my opinion the Kings made the perfect move in the offseason. They've been patient allowing their young roster to develop and now they are ready to make a serious push in the Western Conference. Waiting on further young prospects to push them over the hump and the opportunity pass them by. It was the perfect time to morgage some future assets for proven veterans.
Add Richards to the mix is just what this team needed and at a price that won't cause them purge young talent in the future. If Gagne can be even half effective and their injured players stay healthy, this will be one dangerous team.
How far this team goes depends on how well the new players blend into the system and whether or not the goalies can perform as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. The next step for this team is to win a couple of playoff series. They appear ready to do that but that next step is a tough one for young team. Just ask the Caps.
Circle The Dates - Dec 13 - Dec 28 - A stretch featuring games against Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago - A very good measuring stick against consistent playoff proven talent. Mar 16 at Anaheim - The end of 15 of 20 on the road and right near the trade deadline. Is the team ready for playoff level hockey?
6. Anaheim Ducks [+] – A team that looked like it was heading downward managed to claw its way to respectability on the back of one of the best lines in hockey (Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry). Fortuantely for them, Selanne decided to play another year because they desperately need more secondary scoring.
There is some young talent that is just starting to make an impact, especially on the back end. They'll need their development arch to continue upwards if they want in on the mix. But the real question mark is in goal. Hiller appears to be back after suffering through a long bout with vertigo. Ellis is an adequate backup but if Hiller falters the team will probably follow.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Det - Long road trip ends against a team the Ducks like to measure themselves against. How's Hiller health? Can Perry continue his hot streak? Feb 23 at Carolina - End of a tough 8 game road trip. If they are still in the hunt at this point, they are in great shape.
7. Nashville Predators [-] – One of the better feel good stories of last season ended with Predators finally winning a playoff series. No longer were they the butt of jokes but were now seen for what they really are, a superbly well-coached team with handful of very good players in a town that has embraced their underdog status.
The problem now becomes how to take the next step. The reality is it will be damn tough for a team on a meager budget to crack through against big spenders in the West like Vancouver, Detroit, Chicago and San Jose. With LA on the rise, Nashville may have to settle for a 6-8 spot and hoping the cards fall right in the playoffs.
Unfortunately the task gets harder when players start leaving for more money. Nashville has managed to keep their best players for at least another year but their depth has taken a blow with the departures of Ward, Franson, Sullivan, Goc, O'Brien and Belak. In steps more youth. At least they still have great coaching and great goaltending going for them and for that reason alone I won't count them out. As much as I think Detroit deserves first crack at moving to the Eastern Conference under realignment, it might be interesting to see how the Predators would do against that bunch.
Circle The Dates - Nov 12 vs Montreal - a road heavy opening schedule (10 of first 15) finally ends. Predators cannot afford to dig a deep whole against the talented conference. Mar 10 vs Detroit - Heading into the trade deadline this division rivalry could determine whether the Predators are buyers or sellers.
8. St. Louis Blues {+] – Once again the Blues enter the season with hopes of finally returning to the playoffs. If you recall, last year got off to a great start before a series of injuries seriously hampered the club. Management feels the squad is finally on the cusp so they went out and obtained some leadership to push them to the next level. Although I believe they might have jumped the gun by a year or two, there is little doubt this team is on the rise.
Arnott and Langenbrunner bring some grit and determination the roster has lacked. The trade with Colorado that got them Stewart and Shattenkirk should jump start the offense. As long as Halak can live up to his big contract, the team should be in the fight for a playoff spot. With ownership a bit in flux, it'll be interesting to see if they make any more moves if the team is in the hunt.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Minn - Another team with a brutal stretch of road games to start the season (11 of 15). In a competitive Western Conference, St. Louis must emerge from this stretch close to .500 of risk being on the outside yet again. Mar 10 vs Columbus - I'm not sure who the Blues pissed off but after the trade deadline, not many home games for the Blues. Better have a playoff spot sewn up by this contest.
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9. Columbus Blue Jackets [++] – The Blue Jackets are in a precarious position. The team has suffered through mediocrity for far too long and the fans are starting to lose patience. At least owenership appears to get the picture and went out and finally made some moves to excite the fan base and hopefully push them into the playoffs.
Nash finally has some weapons around him courtesy of the trade between the Jackets and the Flyers. Jeff Carter arrives and instantly becomes part of a very strong first line (Nash, Carter, Umberger). Knowing they needed a good puck moving defensemen as well, Wisniewski was added as well. A recent contract extension to Umberger tells the fans they are committed to keeping the core intact.
The main problem remains the mystery in net. After getting off to a fast start at the NHL level, Mason has tumbled quick. With a competitive Western Conference it is imperitive he regains his form or the Jackets will be on the outside looking in yet again.
Circle The Dates - Jan 14 vs San Jose - This game concludes a tough stretch (Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose) which should be a good measuring stick to see if Columbus is significantly improved. Mar 26/28 - home and home with a Detroit team that usually has its way with the Jackets. Have things really changed?
10. Minnesota Wild [+] – Outside of the Flyers, the Wild probably made the boldesst moves in the offseason. The only problem with these bold moves is they sacrifice strength in one area (defense) to hopefully make the team stronger in another (offense). On a team lacking depth, these kind of moves often do nothing more than excite a fanbase. In this case, that was probably part of the plan.
That being said, Heatley and Setoguchi should be nice additions up front. Both are dangerous players and should allow Koivu to be even more effective. But Heatley has been on the decline for a couple years despite being relatively young and injury free. Their young coach Yao's biggest task will be finding a way to get more out of him.
To bring those players in, the Wild had to give up Burns and Havlat. While Havlat's loss can be filled by Heatley, Burns will be much harder to replace. Year after year teams go out in search of puck moving defensemen that are good defenders as well. The Wild may end up regretting this move. Once again it'll be up to the young coach to find a way to cobble together a decent defense out of a hodge podge of defenders. In a conference full of dynamic offenses, this will be key.
Circle The Dates - Nov 5 - A difficult set of opponents graces the Wild's early schedule (Detroit x3, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Vancouver x2). If the Wild are competitive in these games, it'll set the tone for a good season. Feb 9 vs Vancouver - Back from a long stretch of road games (14 of 20) to play division rival. Are they still in the race?
11. Calgary Flames [-] – This squad keeps kidding itself. They refuse to accept that they are a marginal team at best and are seriously in need of rebuilding. Instead of accepting that fact and moving some assets for propsects/picks, they keep trying to bring in past-their-prime veterans in hopes giving their frenzied fanbase another taste of playoff hockey.
The team now lacks depth in just about every facet of the game. The have Iginla and Kiprusoff but both are are well past their prime. There is a little talent coming up through the ranks and if one of those two stars gets injured or tumbles, this team could easily drop to the bottom of the pack. The team reminds me of the Leafs of a decade ago, desperately trying to hang on to the past. It won't be long before provincial rival, Edmonton, makes them an after thought in the West.
Circle The Dates - Dec 10 vs Edmonton - With the Flames ready for a brutal road stretch (11 of 13) they get an opportunity to prove they are still kings of the province. Mar 13 vs San Jose - The trade deadline looms. Are the Flames willing to embrace the rebuild now?
12. Edmonton Oilers [++] – The climb up has been a long one for the Oilers and there are more than a few rungs left on the ladder. Although I don't expect the Oilers to get into the playoffs this year, I do expect them to crawl out of the cellar and pass a couple of teams.
The youth is coming together nicely and there is more in the pipeline. For the first time in years, the Oilers will probably send the top pick back to juniors for more seasoning. The addition of some veterans (Smyth, Belanger and Hordichuk) should help bring the kids along. I can almost understand the addition of "pylon" Sutton on D considering the lack of talent on the back end but signing Eager, especially to a multi-year deal, was plain silly.
The Oilers still have question marks in goal and would be well served to keep an eye on the waiver wire or trade market for a young goalie with some promise. Khabibulin isn't getting any younger and Dubnyk is questionable at best.
Circle The Dates - Jan 7 at Dallas - end of a 7 game road trip and about the halfway point of the season. Are the Oiler near .500? .400? Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?
13. Dallas Stars [-] – Losing Richards is a huge blow for a team that had it sights set on returning to the playoffs again. It leaves a huge hole in the lineup that may take years to fill. The Stars have brought in some decent talent to fill out the roster (Ryder, Fiddler, Dvorak) but these players are little more than filler for a team that desperately needs more 1st/2nd line talent.
A new coach, Gulutzan, takes over so it is a little difficult to imagine how he'll do with this less than average group. The defense appears sound but not dangerous and Thrasher fans can tell you how tough it is to rely on Lehtonen as your everyday starter in net. With ownership still in turmoil, spending some of that unused cap for improvements is out of the question.
Circle The Dates - Nov 19 vs San Jose - About 30 games in, see how the coach is doing, how Lehtonen is holding up and where the teams confidence is at. Mar 6 at Vancouver - end a Western Canada trip right before the trade deadline. Will the Stars unload more talent in hopes of restocking the roster?
14. Colorado Avalanche [-] – Just when it looked like the Avalanche were turning the corner and beginning the climb back to respecatability, the team made some trades that might set them back quite a bit. At least the team recognized they couldn't go any further with horrible talent in net. Not only did they manage to acquire Varlamov from Washington, they also signed Giguere as a free agent. But the price they paid for Varlamov (1st and 2nd rounder) is highly questionable. For a team working on a restricted budget and lacking depth, giving up picks can be suicide.
There is still some decent talent and a lot of speed but the lack of depth is scary. There is also a glaring lack of leadership on the roster. The team had better stay healthy or they'll quickly find the bottom of the pack.
Circle The Dates - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use. Mar vs Pit - Many road games after this one before the trade deadline. Will the Avalanche be tempted to trade more assets again?
15. Phoenix Coyotes [--] – Every time it looks as though this team has its financial concerns under control, another twist in the story takes place. There's a real danger lying ahead for this team and the stress may finally get to the team.
In past seasons, the team has relied on strong team defense and very good goaltending to keep them in the playoff hunt. Now that their star goalie has headed for the greener (read $$$) pastures of Philadelphia, the team has a gaping whole. While Smith and LaBarbera are serviceable, they won't steal many games. For a team already on the boundary that could spell trouble.
Elsewhere the team has some talent but little stardom. The cast gets even thinner with the losses of Fiddler, Belanger, Jovanovki and Ebbet. Each of their replacements is a less skilled player. The only strong point that remains is their coaching staff. But if even they get the best out of this crew, I don't think they make the playoffs.
Dec 31 at Minnesota - The clock strikes midnight and the year ends with the Coyotes in the middle of an extended road trip. Is their season already done? Will they stay in Phoenix? Is anybody watching? Feb 13 vs Vancouver a brutal homestand against some of the best the NHL has to offer has ended. Has the Coyotes brief rise already ended?
Conference Note :
The top 5 are virtual locks to make the playoffs. The Canucks will likely cruise to the top on the weakness of the Northwest Division. San Jose and Detroit will face very stiff challenges on their way to a division title. I would have liked to pick Nashville higher but there we simply too many departures to justify it. The Central Division looks to be extremely competitive and Columbus's chances to make the playoffs may have taken a hit when Wiesnewski was suspened to start the season. Every point will count in what will likely be a very close race for #6-#13.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Pittsburgh vs Washington
The league and network will be drooling over this magic matchup. The only way it happens though is if Crosby is playing. The Rangers could be a darkhorse if there defense can hold up and Lundqvuist isn't burnt out.
WEST : San Jose vs Detroit
There are a lot of quality teams in the West who could make it this far and health will likely be the determining factor in the playoff series. I think the additions the Wings have made will improve the team signficantly and Burns is the player that'll put the Sharks back in the conference finale.
FINALS : Pittsburgh over San Jose
San Jose makes the next step by beating the Wings in the playoffs for the third straight time (YUCK! I would prefer a more magical end to the Lidstom era). San Jose's depth finally gets exposed by Pittsburgh.
I'm going to try to comment each time on of the "Circle The Dates" passes. I promise those comments will be very brief. Then again, I thought this would be about a third of it's final size.
Sunday, July 24, 2011
California Trip - Epilogue
Just in case you were wondering, the trip home to Georgia was uneventful and on time. The heat and humidity in Atlanta didn't take long to zap the last little bit of energy from us.
All in all I considered the trip a smashing success and I had a wonderful time. I'm pretty sure Crimson enjoyed it as well. While it is pretty easy to say Crimson enjoyed Venice Beach the best, it isn't as easy for me to pick my highlight. I'd probably have to go with the "journey". Although long and taxing at times, the sights along the way were well worth it. Everything from giraffes in San Diego, crazies on Venice Beach, and friends in San Francisco contributed to a great trip.
If I did it again, I wouldn't change much. Perhaps I'd cancel Santa Monica for a longer stay at Venice Beach. I might cancel the trip to Monterrey aquarium. Maybe add a day to San Francisco or LA to see a bit more. However, the reality is I couldn't have asked for a much better trip.
If you made it this far reading the blog, thank you. The words flowed pretty quick but it was a bit of work. Fortunately, it was a labor of love.
See you after my next journey.
All in all I considered the trip a smashing success and I had a wonderful time. I'm pretty sure Crimson enjoyed it as well. While it is pretty easy to say Crimson enjoyed Venice Beach the best, it isn't as easy for me to pick my highlight. I'd probably have to go with the "journey". Although long and taxing at times, the sights along the way were well worth it. Everything from giraffes in San Diego, crazies on Venice Beach, and friends in San Francisco contributed to a great trip.
If I did it again, I wouldn't change much. Perhaps I'd cancel Santa Monica for a longer stay at Venice Beach. I might cancel the trip to Monterrey aquarium. Maybe add a day to San Francisco or LA to see a bit more. However, the reality is I couldn't have asked for a much better trip.
If you made it this far reading the blog, thank you. The words flowed pretty quick but it was a bit of work. Fortunately, it was a labor of love.
See you after my next journey.
California Trip - Day 12 - San Francisco Part 2
After a long day we needed the extra rest so I decided to let our last day in California set its own pace.
The first thing we were trying to do was get to Alcatraz. I thought that getting on a boat on standby would be near impossible when tickets had been sold out about 10 days in advance. However, we were able to get on the 11:30 boat despite arriving at 11:20. As a bonus, the weather was quite a bit nicer than when we were originally scheduled to go.
Crimson and I both liked the tour. The fact that the audio tour is narrated by former guards and inmates makes it even more interesting. When we'd seen everything we wanted to see, we were just in time to catch a boat back to the mainland.
We wanted to have lunch at In n Out Burger since I'd heard it was one of the best fast food restaurants without a location in Atlanta. However, first we stopped by Pier 39 and Fisherman's Wharf. Obviously Crimson was hungry or just didn't care because unlike Venice Beach she was in a hurry to get on with it.
In n Out Burger was good but not great although certainly one of our most reasonably priced meals on the trip. For dessert, it was of to Ghiradelli Square to load up any extra space we had in our travel bags with chocolate!
One more stop before an official end to our tourism. We (or I) had to see the Pacific Pinball Museum in Alamaeda. It's one of the best collections of pinball machines that are playable in the country. I promised Crimson to keep the visit relatively short and kept my word by staying only 90 minutes. We had fun playing a lot of games I've never played before. On this day, Crimson was the better player than me.
This night we stayed near the hotel as our flight left at 7AM the next morning. It took us awhile to find somewhere to eat but when we did we hit the jackpot. Big Joe's Cafe had great diner style food, huge portions and very reasonable prices.
The first thing we were trying to do was get to Alcatraz. I thought that getting on a boat on standby would be near impossible when tickets had been sold out about 10 days in advance. However, we were able to get on the 11:30 boat despite arriving at 11:20. As a bonus, the weather was quite a bit nicer than when we were originally scheduled to go.
Crimson and I both liked the tour. The fact that the audio tour is narrated by former guards and inmates makes it even more interesting. When we'd seen everything we wanted to see, we were just in time to catch a boat back to the mainland.
We wanted to have lunch at In n Out Burger since I'd heard it was one of the best fast food restaurants without a location in Atlanta. However, first we stopped by Pier 39 and Fisherman's Wharf. Obviously Crimson was hungry or just didn't care because unlike Venice Beach she was in a hurry to get on with it.
In n Out Burger was good but not great although certainly one of our most reasonably priced meals on the trip. For dessert, it was of to Ghiradelli Square to load up any extra space we had in our travel bags with chocolate!
One more stop before an official end to our tourism. We (or I) had to see the Pacific Pinball Museum in Alamaeda. It's one of the best collections of pinball machines that are playable in the country. I promised Crimson to keep the visit relatively short and kept my word by staying only 90 minutes. We had fun playing a lot of games I've never played before. On this day, Crimson was the better player than me.
This night we stayed near the hotel as our flight left at 7AM the next morning. It took us awhile to find somewhere to eat but when we did we hit the jackpot. Big Joe's Cafe had great diner style food, huge portions and very reasonable prices.
Califronia Trip - Day 11 - Beyond San Francisco
Since I didn't have time to drive to Seattle or even Portland, I did want to see something a little beyond San Francisco. Today was that day. As usual, things started off cool and foggy.
The first stop was a walk across a section of the Golden Gate Bridge. If Crimson was scared, I couldn't tell because she was huddled up inside her coat trying to keep warm.
From there it was on to Point Bonita for more vistas. It turned out Crimson enjoyed walking around the old battery at Fort Barry. The haunting quality of the sight had her a bit on edge but she had fun climbing around and exploring.
We had lunch at Muir Beach overlook where the clouds surrounded us. From there it was up the coast seeking more beautiful spots among the twisting turns of the road. This journey took a good deal of time and patience and when we finally reached our final destination, Salt Point State Park, I thought we'd come for nothing. I couldn't see much of anything interesting from the road.
We parked and starting walking towards the coast. Here, we found the rock formations I had seen and Crimson had a good time climbing around on them. It had actually warmed up a bit and it was great to be out of the car for awhile before the long and twisty drive back to San Francisco.
We went to have dinner with John and Svengi despite me almost canceling due to exhaustion. I'm glad we went as we had a fabulous time with them. A late night but well worth it to have some home cooked food and good company.
The first stop was a walk across a section of the Golden Gate Bridge. If Crimson was scared, I couldn't tell because she was huddled up inside her coat trying to keep warm.
From there it was on to Point Bonita for more vistas. It turned out Crimson enjoyed walking around the old battery at Fort Barry. The haunting quality of the sight had her a bit on edge but she had fun climbing around and exploring.
We had lunch at Muir Beach overlook where the clouds surrounded us. From there it was up the coast seeking more beautiful spots among the twisting turns of the road. This journey took a good deal of time and patience and when we finally reached our final destination, Salt Point State Park, I thought we'd come for nothing. I couldn't see much of anything interesting from the road.
We parked and starting walking towards the coast. Here, we found the rock formations I had seen and Crimson had a good time climbing around on them. It had actually warmed up a bit and it was great to be out of the car for awhile before the long and twisty drive back to San Francisco.
We went to have dinner with John and Svengi despite me almost canceling due to exhaustion. I'm glad we went as we had a fabulous time with them. A late night but well worth it to have some home cooked food and good company.
California Trip - Day 10 - San Francisco Part 1
San Francisco is normally pretty cool this time of year but 10 degrees cooler on this particular day. We briefly check out the almost vacant Ocean Beach before finding the Camera Obscura closed. No huge problem, as it is still a nice place to take some pictures.
From there it is on to Crissy Field and a walk towards the Golden Gate Bridge. Facing a stiff breeze in our face, we work our way there, then quickly head back.
I mention to Crimson that the Exploratorium is just around the corner and she shows interest. When planning the trip she didn't seem interested so I really hadn't budgeted any time for it. When went in anyway and to see it.
We were both thoroughly impressed. This was easily the best science museum I had ever seen with hundreds of interactive exhibits. We spent about and hour and a half in there and easily could have spend another hour or two. Great place for kids and adults.
For lunch we met up with an old friend, John and his wife, Svengi. We got to enjoy some quick Chinese food before our scheduled trip to Alcatraz. We made plans to hook up with them for dinner the next night.
We were cutting it close to make our boat to Alcatraz. Unfortunately, the GPS chose this moment to route me on a less than ideal path. We got stuck behind slow bus after slow bus on the heavily traveled Market Street. We found a parking spot and race to the pier only to see our boat pulling away. We'd missed it by less the 5 minutes. Were we given standby tickets and hoped to use them in two days.
So, we checked out the ferry plaza and took some pictures of the city skyline from Pier 14 before heading to our hotel in Union Square. Dinner on this night was at the Cheesecake Factory on the top floor of Macy's. A little cold outside but the food was good.
From there it is on to Crissy Field and a walk towards the Golden Gate Bridge. Facing a stiff breeze in our face, we work our way there, then quickly head back.
I mention to Crimson that the Exploratorium is just around the corner and she shows interest. When planning the trip she didn't seem interested so I really hadn't budgeted any time for it. When went in anyway and to see it.
We were both thoroughly impressed. This was easily the best science museum I had ever seen with hundreds of interactive exhibits. We spent about and hour and a half in there and easily could have spend another hour or two. Great place for kids and adults.
For lunch we met up with an old friend, John and his wife, Svengi. We got to enjoy some quick Chinese food before our scheduled trip to Alcatraz. We made plans to hook up with them for dinner the next night.
We were cutting it close to make our boat to Alcatraz. Unfortunately, the GPS chose this moment to route me on a less than ideal path. We got stuck behind slow bus after slow bus on the heavily traveled Market Street. We found a parking spot and race to the pier only to see our boat pulling away. We'd missed it by less the 5 minutes. Were we given standby tickets and hoped to use them in two days.
So, we checked out the ferry plaza and took some pictures of the city skyline from Pier 14 before heading to our hotel in Union Square. Dinner on this night was at the Cheesecake Factory on the top floor of Macy's. A little cold outside but the food was good.
Saturday, July 23, 2011
California Trip - Day 9 - Castle, Seals and Big Sur
First stop on the long day was the famous Hearst Castle just 2 minutes from our hotel. Just as impressive as the castle itself is the huge chunk of land surrounding it. It was a bus ride up into the clouds to reach the castle and it got cooler as we ascended. The guided tour was informative although a little dull. Both Crimson and I had more fun walking around unguided after the segment. The pool was truly impressive and we couldn't help but wonder if the employees had a bash there once or twice a year.
Next stop was Piedras Blancas and the elephant seals. Crimson had been asking me for days when we would see them and this was our first shot with the exception of a lone seal on our kayaking trip in La Jolla. These were big beasts but fairly distant and not very active.
What stood between us and the next major city was Big Sur. A beautiful section of coastal California where mountains meet the ocean with only a small strip of road in between. It was tough to stay focused on the road with all the pretty sights before my eyes. There were numerous delays for one lane roads and some construction but there were also opportunities to pull aside and snap some pics.
We stopped to view California's only coastal waterfall and were underwhelmed by its size. It looked like a garden hose to me. I think I was spoiled by the hundreds of falls in Iceland.
We finally reached Monterey after 3PM quite hungry. So, before hitting the aquarium we stopped stop for food at the Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. We made quick work of the aquarium since both of us seen much of the same before.
We had more fun watching the seals in their somewhat natural environment under the pier in Santa Cruz. Crimson couldn't get enough of it and probably would have slept with seals if I let her.
When I though we were done with twisty turning roads, I got one more taste with Devil's Slide next to our hotel stop in Pacifica, very close to San Francisco. The hotel was brand new and pizza delivery to the room was a perfect end to a long day.
Friday, July 22, 2011
California Trip - Day 8 - Santa Barbara & Wall of Gum
We awoke to the coolest weather of the trip with temps hovering mid to upper 50s for good part of the day. The "June Swoon" (fog that typically covers the California coastline during most of the summer) was in full affect. Crimson struggled with the cold a little more than me but kept refusing opportunities to purchase some warmer gear. I guess staying in style has its price.
This day was probably the shortest and least active of all our days. This was fairly intentional as the days surrounding it were packed to the gills.
First off was Santa Barbara. I think this site would have been a bit nicer had the weather been warmer. We checked out the beach front and harbor, ate Fish & Chips at the pier and did a little walking around town. We went up to the top of the tower of the really nice courthouse for a good view of the red tile rooftops.
One of the stranger events was our experience with the bus. First we had trouble deciphering which bus was going where. When I asked for assistance the driver told us his bus would take us downtown. We got on and ended up on the other side of town at "the end of the line". When I mentioned our prior discussion to the driver he said, "I don't remember talking to you". It wasn't as if hours had passed or a lot of passengers had confused him. It had been about 10 minutes and only 5 passengers including us. We eventually got pointed in the right direction and had a good laugh.
Next up was a stop I was really looking for to. Three miles from Guadalupe are the largest coastal dunes in the U.S. Unfortunately, when we got there, access was closed on Monday & Tuesday. Oh well, everything can't go perfect.
From there it was to another swinging pedestrian bridge in Arroyo Grande originally built in 1875. Just as the last in San Diego, Crimson would have none of it. I don't know what the obsession was with bridges on this trip. Maybe I was gearing up for the Golden Gate. Maybe it was the equivalent of waterfalls in Iceland?
Up next was San Luis Obispo. Given our desire to keep this day short, we had only one stop in mind, Bubblegum Alley. A pictures is worth thousand words or maybe just one?
A brief stop at the cold windy shores of Morro Boy was it before settling down at our hotel in San Simeon. Due to limited choices and convenience it was Mexican dinner again. It was decent but after that we'd had enough Mexican for the trip.
This day was probably the shortest and least active of all our days. This was fairly intentional as the days surrounding it were packed to the gills.
First off was Santa Barbara. I think this site would have been a bit nicer had the weather been warmer. We checked out the beach front and harbor, ate Fish & Chips at the pier and did a little walking around town. We went up to the top of the tower of the really nice courthouse for a good view of the red tile rooftops.
One of the stranger events was our experience with the bus. First we had trouble deciphering which bus was going where. When I asked for assistance the driver told us his bus would take us downtown. We got on and ended up on the other side of town at "the end of the line". When I mentioned our prior discussion to the driver he said, "I don't remember talking to you". It wasn't as if hours had passed or a lot of passengers had confused him. It had been about 10 minutes and only 5 passengers including us. We eventually got pointed in the right direction and had a good laugh.
Next up was a stop I was really looking for to. Three miles from Guadalupe are the largest coastal dunes in the U.S. Unfortunately, when we got there, access was closed on Monday & Tuesday. Oh well, everything can't go perfect.
From there it was to another swinging pedestrian bridge in Arroyo Grande originally built in 1875. Just as the last in San Diego, Crimson would have none of it. I don't know what the obsession was with bridges on this trip. Maybe I was gearing up for the Golden Gate. Maybe it was the equivalent of waterfalls in Iceland?
Up next was San Luis Obispo. Given our desire to keep this day short, we had only one stop in mind, Bubblegum Alley. A pictures is worth thousand words or maybe just one?
A brief stop at the cold windy shores of Morro Boy was it before settling down at our hotel in San Simeon. Due to limited choices and convenience it was Mexican dinner again. It was decent but after that we'd had enough Mexican for the trip.
California Trip - Day 7 - Six Flags Magic Mountain
This was one day I knew Crimson was looking forward to. She's a roller coaster enthusiast, making this the perfect park for her. With 18 coasters total, it's the most in the world.
Since the park didn't open until 10:30 and we were staying right next to it, we actually go a bit more sleep than usual. We were going to need it for this nice long hot day. Now that we were inland, the temps spiked up to 90F but at least the humidity wasn't as high as home. A 5 minute shuttle ride from the hotel to the park saved us $15 parking.
It was a great day to go. The lines were very short except for a couple allowing us to ride everything we wanted to. Unfortunately, the world's tallest, fastest and longest flying coaster, Tatsu wasn't working all day.
Our favorites were probably X2 & Deja Vu (wish they still had it here):
At 5:30 we had pretty much covered everything we want to see and set off back to the coast and our hotel in Ventura. This particular hotel was easily the worse of the bunch. We did find some decent Mexican food right across the street where one of the patrons was a genuine Hell's Angel.
Since the park didn't open until 10:30 and we were staying right next to it, we actually go a bit more sleep than usual. We were going to need it for this nice long hot day. Now that we were inland, the temps spiked up to 90F but at least the humidity wasn't as high as home. A 5 minute shuttle ride from the hotel to the park saved us $15 parking.
It was a great day to go. The lines were very short except for a couple allowing us to ride everything we wanted to. Unfortunately, the world's tallest, fastest and longest flying coaster, Tatsu wasn't working all day.
Our favorites were probably X2 & Deja Vu (wish they still had it here):
At 5:30 we had pretty much covered everything we want to see and set off back to the coast and our hotel in Ventura. This particular hotel was easily the worse of the bunch. We did find some decent Mexican food right across the street where one of the patrons was a genuine Hell's Angel.
California Trip - Day 6 - LA Beaches
If we were going to see some of the L.A. beaches, on a weekend no less, we'd have to pick a choose carefully and get a somewhat early start. We were starting to get a little tired of the slim pickings for breakfast at the hotel and started eating our breakfast groceries instead. Pop-tarts, muffins and cereal bars filled the whole until lunchtime.
First, we took a route most would overlook, hugging the coast through Palos Verdes instead of cutting across it. I'm glad we did because it was a beautiful section.
From there is was on to Venice Beach. Knowing it was going to be swamped, I grabbed parking at the first lot I could find close to the boardwalk. It cost $17 but was much better than walking a mile to and from the car.
A quick look at the canals left Crimson unimpressed and we made our way to the boardwalk. We watched several street performers (both good and bad), looked at peoples arts & crafts, gazed into many shops, people watched and had a nice lunch at a street cafe. We stayed longer than I originally expected and Crimson didn't want to leave. In fact, she kept mentioning that she wanted to return at various points during our trip. This worried me a bit. It was the festival atmosphere that seemed to draw her to it.
From there it was on to Santa Monica. Fortunately, there were parking garages around this area because the placed was jammed packed. Tons of people in and around the water. I found the place a bit underwhelming and would have spent the time at Venice Beach had I known it. With the next day set for Six Flags Magic Mountain, the tiny coaster wasn't much of a thought.
Next up was the journey to Malibu. We stopped along PCH when we spotted a parking spot to take a quick look at a public beach access and then went to Malibu Bluffs Park for some nice views. Crimson was exhausted and asleep from this point on as I drove through to Oxnard and back inland towards our hotel in Valencia next to Six Flags. I actually found the trip from Malibu to Oxnard to Valencia more scenic than the one from Santa Monica to Malibu although some of the houses around Malibu were incredible.
Upon reaching the hotel, I had work to do as we'd reached the midway point of our trip and we were running out of clean clothes. We ordered some pretty good, albeit expensive, room service, watched some Sunday night TV and did laundry.
First, we took a route most would overlook, hugging the coast through Palos Verdes instead of cutting across it. I'm glad we did because it was a beautiful section.
From there is was on to Venice Beach. Knowing it was going to be swamped, I grabbed parking at the first lot I could find close to the boardwalk. It cost $17 but was much better than walking a mile to and from the car.
A quick look at the canals left Crimson unimpressed and we made our way to the boardwalk. We watched several street performers (both good and bad), looked at peoples arts & crafts, gazed into many shops, people watched and had a nice lunch at a street cafe. We stayed longer than I originally expected and Crimson didn't want to leave. In fact, she kept mentioning that she wanted to return at various points during our trip. This worried me a bit. It was the festival atmosphere that seemed to draw her to it.
From there it was on to Santa Monica. Fortunately, there were parking garages around this area because the placed was jammed packed. Tons of people in and around the water. I found the place a bit underwhelming and would have spent the time at Venice Beach had I known it. With the next day set for Six Flags Magic Mountain, the tiny coaster wasn't much of a thought.
Next up was the journey to Malibu. We stopped along PCH when we spotted a parking spot to take a quick look at a public beach access and then went to Malibu Bluffs Park for some nice views. Crimson was exhausted and asleep from this point on as I drove through to Oxnard and back inland towards our hotel in Valencia next to Six Flags. I actually found the trip from Malibu to Oxnard to Valencia more scenic than the one from Santa Monica to Malibu although some of the houses around Malibu were incredible.
Upon reaching the hotel, I had work to do as we'd reached the midway point of our trip and we were running out of clean clothes. We ordered some pretty good, albeit expensive, room service, watched some Sunday night TV and did laundry.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
California Trip - Day 5 - O.C. Beaches / Weird Al
I got the sense that Crimson was a little disappointed by the mall viewing of the Hollywood sign so we made a quick detour to Griffith Park Observatory. The view was a little better and near the best you'll get without some hiking, which was the last thing Crimson wanted to do. The bonus was we had a nice view of the L.A. skyline as well. As usual, the skyline was covered in a sickening smog.
Next up was a visit to Rodeo Drive. Since Crimson had been warned before hand that the budget didn't permit any shopping, the visit was pretty quick. Just a nice walk up and down a couple of blocks.
Now it was time to return to the coast. I was determined to see most of it so we headed back to almost where we left off starting a Dana Point. We worked out way North with the intention of seeing many beaches. I quickly realized this would be impossible due to traffic and parking issues.
Our first stop was Laguna Beach but we had to park about a mile away and walk to it. Crimson got to watch some people playing volleyball and critique them and I got to snap a few pics.
Next up was Newport Beach and the Balboa Peninsula. Despite it being pretty late in the day it took a long time to get out to the tip and find some parking. But the time was worth it as we got to watch some people risk body surfing at the "Wedge". It wasn't exactly warm (about 70 degrees) so Crimson and I had little interest in getting in the water.
We skipped a couple of the beach stops I had planned as our time was running out. We got to our hotel in Long Beach with only 10 minutes to spare before we needed to head back South to Costa Mesa for a Weird Al Yankovich concert at the Pacific Amphitheater.
I was thoroughly impressed by the venue. It was quite bit big (I read 16,000) and was 90% full. That was a lot more people than I expected. With no opening act, Al's performance went on for 2 hours and 15 minutes. He did a bunch of quick costume changes while showing Al TV interviews on the big screen, including one with my favorite, Robert Plant.
His material covered a lot of his career and played most of the crowd favorites including My Bologna, Eat It, Fat, Yoda, Smells Like Nirvana, Amish Paradise, The Saga Begins, Couch Potato, White & Nerdy (With Crimson singing loudly), Canadian Idiot, Perform This Way (in huge peacock outfit), TMZ and Craigslist (loved his impression of Jim Morrison). It was a great performance and a nice end to a long day.
Next up was a visit to Rodeo Drive. Since Crimson had been warned before hand that the budget didn't permit any shopping, the visit was pretty quick. Just a nice walk up and down a couple of blocks.
Now it was time to return to the coast. I was determined to see most of it so we headed back to almost where we left off starting a Dana Point. We worked out way North with the intention of seeing many beaches. I quickly realized this would be impossible due to traffic and parking issues.
Our first stop was Laguna Beach but we had to park about a mile away and walk to it. Crimson got to watch some people playing volleyball and critique them and I got to snap a few pics.
Next up was Newport Beach and the Balboa Peninsula. Despite it being pretty late in the day it took a long time to get out to the tip and find some parking. But the time was worth it as we got to watch some people risk body surfing at the "Wedge". It wasn't exactly warm (about 70 degrees) so Crimson and I had little interest in getting in the water.
We skipped a couple of the beach stops I had planned as our time was running out. We got to our hotel in Long Beach with only 10 minutes to spare before we needed to head back South to Costa Mesa for a Weird Al Yankovich concert at the Pacific Amphitheater.
I was thoroughly impressed by the venue. It was quite bit big (I read 16,000) and was 90% full. That was a lot more people than I expected. With no opening act, Al's performance went on for 2 hours and 15 minutes. He did a bunch of quick costume changes while showing Al TV interviews on the big screen, including one with my favorite, Robert Plant.
His material covered a lot of his career and played most of the crowd favorites including My Bologna, Eat It, Fat, Yoda, Smells Like Nirvana, Amish Paradise, The Saga Begins, Couch Potato, White & Nerdy (With Crimson singing loudly), Canadian Idiot, Perform This Way (in huge peacock outfit), TMZ and Craigslist (loved his impression of Jim Morrison). It was a great performance and a nice end to a long day.
California Trip - Day 4 - Hollywood
We actually got to sleep in a bit because we weren't about to head out into the thick of rush hour traffic in LA.
The first stop was a tour of Warner Bros Studio. This was a two hour tram guided tour of many locations on the Warner Bros lot. Lots of neat insight provided by the guide and we saw a lot of historic sites. However, since almost all filming is on hiatus during July we didn't get to catch anyone live.
We did get to have nice look at the preserved Friends Central Perk set where I snuck this picture that I wasn't supposed to get. I was quickly told to get back behind the couch after taking it. Such a rebel.
My other highlight was seeing the Kash and Grab set from one of my favorite shows, Shameless. It didn't mean anything to anyone else on the tram, but at least I recognized it. We saw the studio for Big Bang Theory but most of it was undercover at the moment. Finally, there was a wardrobe and prop museum that was filled with 50% Harry Potter stuff.
We didn't have much time before our next event so we grab some grub out of the car and started the short walk to wait for Jay Leno. Initially I was a bit concerned about getting there in time since they intentionally overbook it. Fortunately, we were as numbers 154 & 155. We got in and got some very nice seats straight back from the monologue spot. As we had heard, it was freezing in there, but it was a great experience. Jay does a good job of welcoming and talking to the audience before the show and it was fun despite some less than interesting guests (Kathie Lee & Hoda, Sig Henson and Ashton Shepard). The highlight was probably a guest spot by William Shatner.
After taping we set out for the heart of Hollywood and the tourist traps. We saw the Walk of Fame, Chinese Theater and caught our first glimpse of the Hollywood sign the the Hollywood & Highland Mall.
We had fun at Madame Tussaud's Was Museum mingling with the wax stars. They are so lifelike it is a bit creepy. One time Crimson even mistook a live person for a wax statue. We struggled a bit to find some decent food but eventually did at the Boulevard Tavern.
We ended the busy day at our hotel in the center of West Hollywood.
The first stop was a tour of Warner Bros Studio. This was a two hour tram guided tour of many locations on the Warner Bros lot. Lots of neat insight provided by the guide and we saw a lot of historic sites. However, since almost all filming is on hiatus during July we didn't get to catch anyone live.
We did get to have nice look at the preserved Friends Central Perk set where I snuck this picture that I wasn't supposed to get. I was quickly told to get back behind the couch after taking it. Such a rebel.
My other highlight was seeing the Kash and Grab set from one of my favorite shows, Shameless. It didn't mean anything to anyone else on the tram, but at least I recognized it. We saw the studio for Big Bang Theory but most of it was undercover at the moment. Finally, there was a wardrobe and prop museum that was filled with 50% Harry Potter stuff.
We didn't have much time before our next event so we grab some grub out of the car and started the short walk to wait for Jay Leno. Initially I was a bit concerned about getting there in time since they intentionally overbook it. Fortunately, we were as numbers 154 & 155. We got in and got some very nice seats straight back from the monologue spot. As we had heard, it was freezing in there, but it was a great experience. Jay does a good job of welcoming and talking to the audience before the show and it was fun despite some less than interesting guests (Kathie Lee & Hoda, Sig Henson and Ashton Shepard). The highlight was probably a guest spot by William Shatner.
After taping we set out for the heart of Hollywood and the tourist traps. We saw the Walk of Fame, Chinese Theater and caught our first glimpse of the Hollywood sign the the Hollywood & Highland Mall.
We had fun at Madame Tussaud's Was Museum mingling with the wax stars. They are so lifelike it is a bit creepy. One time Crimson even mistook a live person for a wax statue. We struggled a bit to find some decent food but eventually did at the Boulevard Tavern.
We ended the busy day at our hotel in the center of West Hollywood.
California Trip - Day 3 - La Jolla and Departure North
Another big activity on tap early, so it was breakfast from the grocery store in our hotel room before departing for La Jolla Cove in Northern San Diego. Elise, Sam, Crimson and I were going to spend a couple hours on a kayaking and snorkeling tour.
The first challenge was finding a place to park. This would be a recurring theme for much of our trip. It's like the state of California always figured people would walk to the beach.
The cove was beautiful and water nice although quite cold. It was a good thing we had wet suits otherwise we couldn't have handled the 2 hours in and on top of the water. The kayaking was a good workout and the team of Crimson / Mark worked well together. The snorkeling was less impressive than most of my other attempts with zero appearances of the hyped leopard sharks. The highlight was our swim into the caves.
We built up quite a hunger and headed to the La Jolla Cheese Shop for some massive sandwiches. The food was great but the service pretty slow. They did have a nice selection of hard to find candies and drinks.
We headed back to the hotel and said our goodbyes to Mom, Elise and Sam as they were returning to Phoenix that afternoon. We were headed North because our next day was a busy one in Hollywood.
On our way North we stopped at Torrey Pines Glider port hoping to catch a glimpse of some hangliders. Although we didn't see any, the site was quite beautiful and people were having some fun with remote control gliders.
We got our first taste of traffic as we reached the Southern edge of Orange County. Our hotel stop was in San Clemente. A nice quite hotel that thrilled Crimson simply because it had more TV channels. Pizza at the local Stuft Pizza became a bit weird when one of the employees cranked the volume on the only TV to maximum level and walked away.
The first challenge was finding a place to park. This would be a recurring theme for much of our trip. It's like the state of California always figured people would walk to the beach.
The cove was beautiful and water nice although quite cold. It was a good thing we had wet suits otherwise we couldn't have handled the 2 hours in and on top of the water. The kayaking was a good workout and the team of Crimson / Mark worked well together. The snorkeling was less impressive than most of my other attempts with zero appearances of the hyped leopard sharks. The highlight was our swim into the caves.
We built up quite a hunger and headed to the La Jolla Cheese Shop for some massive sandwiches. The food was great but the service pretty slow. They did have a nice selection of hard to find candies and drinks.
We headed back to the hotel and said our goodbyes to Mom, Elise and Sam as they were returning to Phoenix that afternoon. We were headed North because our next day was a busy one in Hollywood.
On our way North we stopped at Torrey Pines Glider port hoping to catch a glimpse of some hangliders. Although we didn't see any, the site was quite beautiful and people were having some fun with remote control gliders.
We got our first taste of traffic as we reached the Southern edge of Orange County. Our hotel stop was in San Clemente. A nice quite hotel that thrilled Crimson simply because it had more TV channels. Pizza at the local Stuft Pizza became a bit weird when one of the employees cranked the volume on the only TV to maximum level and walked away.
California Trip - Day 2 - San Diego Zoo and more
Still on Atlanta time, I awoke pretty early. Since Crimson was still asleep I decided to take a walk and some pics in Embarcadero Park behind the hotel.
Instead of opting for the outrageously expensive $23 hotel breakfast buffet, we went around the corner to Café 222, a great decision. Excellent eats at a very reasonable price. From there it was off to the San Diego Zoo and more animals.
We started out taking a bus tour of the grounds. It's a 40 minute guided tour that allows you to see a lot of the park although not that close to the animals. The wait for the bus was a bit longer than I had hoped but it was a relaxing way to see a lot.
From there it was on foot to explore the zoo. It certainly lived up to its billing as the one of the world's best. The zoo is huge and the collection impressive. Many of the habitats are quite well done. We saw a lot but still only covered about 2/3rds before most of our group was too tired to continue. My highlight of the day had to be watching 4 or 5 people jump just because a lion raised its head behind the glass.
Mom, Elise and Sam were ready to head back to the hotel but I wanted to keep sightseeing and Crimson opted to go with me. Our first stop were two old bridges in the area. First was the 375 foot long Spruce Street suspension bridge built in 1912. When we got within a couple steps of it we realized Crimson had found a limit. There was no way she was going to cross it. I ran across, snapped a few pics and we moved on to the next bridge. This one was the Quince Street wooden trestle bridge built in 1905. However, there was no crossing this bridge as a section of it had broken away. Perhaps Crimson was on to something.
Next we headed out to Point Loma for some great views back at downtown San Diego and even a glance at Mexico. Checking out Ocean Beach and its amusement park on the way back turned into a bit of a mystery that was finally solved when a quick trip to the Internet revealed the amusement park had been closed for years.
For dinner, the crew headed to Old Town and some authentic Mexican food at the Old Town Mexican Cafe. The wait was long and food only average but the company was good. Sam picked up a Mexican wrestling mask that he was determined to wear everywhere.
California Trip - Day 1 - Air Travel & San Diego
We woke up bright and early around 5:00AM for an 8:00AM flight. Things didn't get off to the best start as I somehow missed the exit to I-85 despite the fact that I've taken this route literally hundreds of times heading downtown. We recovered though to make it to the airport in time and our flights were on time as well.
A mix up at the car rental office had me renamed to "Deion" for a bit but in the end saved me a day rental of rentals fees and the cost of a tank of gas. We quickly headed out to our first destination, San Zoo Safari park.
This park is a subsidiary of the San Diego Zoo but at a different location. It's a huge open space which houses a lot of animals in wide expansive habitats. It was really neat seeing giraffes roam relatively free across the "plains". We took a guided safari tour that gave us a close look at the grounds and animals. Expensive, but worth it.
After the Safari we went back to our hotel and met up with Mom, Elise and Sam. The San Diego Marriott Marquis & Marina had beuatiful views of the city and the harbor. We ate dinner at the hotel and then drove quickly to Coronado to check out the sunset at the world famous Del Coronado Hotel and eat some ice cream.
A mix up at the car rental office had me renamed to "Deion" for a bit but in the end saved me a day rental of rentals fees and the cost of a tank of gas. We quickly headed out to our first destination, San Zoo Safari park.
This park is a subsidiary of the San Diego Zoo but at a different location. It's a huge open space which houses a lot of animals in wide expansive habitats. It was really neat seeing giraffes roam relatively free across the "plains". We took a guided safari tour that gave us a close look at the grounds and animals. Expensive, but worth it.
After the Safari we went back to our hotel and met up with Mom, Elise and Sam. The San Diego Marriott Marquis & Marina had beuatiful views of the city and the harbor. We ate dinner at the hotel and then drove quickly to Coronado to check out the sunset at the world famous Del Coronado Hotel and eat some ice cream.
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