NHL Playoff Predictions - Finals

Looking back at round 3

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
Actual: NEW JERSEY in 6

In the end, I underestimated the Devils and overestimated the Rangers. The long series the Rangers played leading up to this matchup certainly affected their play. It is incredible hard to sustain high level of play for so many games. When a team plays the way the Rangers do, blocking shots and focussing on team defense first, it is especially hard. The Devils used this to their advantage by using by a relentless forecheck that forced the Rangers to think and act fast. With the Rangers playing on their heels for much of the series, they had more troubles creating offense.

In the end, Lunqvist simply couldn't carry the team to another series victory. Ranger fans and players will look back on this season as a golden opportunity lost. They were easily the most consistent team all season and had all the tools to win The Cup but came up short. On the positive side, I believe this team is actually a year ahead of schedule and will be even better next year. Krieder, who joined the team for the playoff run, is an exceptional talent and will be a nice addition to their young arsenal.

Again and again I underestimate the Devils. Heading into the season I had major questions about how the team would handle things on the defense with a goalie who's best days are behind him. I also wondered whether the team still had the drive and energy to sustain a long playoff run. Their performance thus far has taken away those questions. The infusion of quality youth in the lineup has shown why Lou Lamoriello is regarded as one of the best talent evaluators in the game. Parise is finally showing the entire continent why he is one the best players in the NHL and Kovalchuk is living up to the massive contract the Devils gave him. There are still questions about life after Broduer but they have shown they'll be a factor at least until he is gone.

PHOENIX #3 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $180
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 5

If there was anyone with a lingering doubt that LA was a serious contender to win The Cup, it had better be gone by now. Their run through the West Conference was historic. At no point was the team in any serious trouble of losing control of any series. Their defense, which played so well throughout the season, kept up the pace under the intense pressure of the playoffs. Their offense, so inept during the season, finally broke out. The series was a pleasure to watch because the team played with such efficiency and discipline at a very high speed. They consistently pushed back whenever Phoenix thought they had a bit of momentum.

Phoenix was in over their heads in the this matchup. They simply didn't have the horses to match up with offensive depth of Phoenix's lineup and Smith simply couldn't carry them any more. The reality is this team never should have made it this far. It is a credit to their coaching staff that they somehow managed to win 2 series. Here's hoping the fans will finally have a new owner committed to keeping the team in the desert.

Winning 1 and losing 1 leaves me at 6-8 total but I'm starting to regain some money. The $100 profit brings me back to $630 of my original $1000.

FINALS
NEW JERSEY #6 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $500

Although I'm going to pick LA based on their superior goaltending and defense, there are a couple things that I think may work against them. Although the number of games they have played is a plus, without facing much adversity, I'm a bit concerned they are a bit ill-prepared to face any that may come in the next 2 weeks. They talent level they have faced has been less than ideal and they could be a bit over confident. With over a week since their last game, they may face some difficulty getting back to top form early in the series.

However, it is a good thing for the Kings that they'll open the series on the road. If they were a bit out of sync, it is much better to lose on the road than at home. Given that they haven't lost on the road yet, just getting one in New Jersey will put them in a great position to win The Cup. By the time they return home to LA, they should be clicking once again.

What New Jersey has used the last two series against New York and Philadelphia will not work against the Kings. The heavy forecheck is not the way to beat the Kings. I see that as a dangerous way to play them as their defenders are much more adept at moving the puck and making fast decisions. Heavy pursuit will only lead to odd man advantages against the Devils.

In contrast, the Kings method of pressuring the points, specifically on the penalty kill should make the Devils less effective. Kovalchuk is known for turning over the puck and he'll have to be extra careful against the Kings.

For the Devils to have a chance, they must find a way to get to Quick early in games. The Kings are very comfortable playing a tight contest, just waiting for the opportunity to strike. Kovalchuk and Parise must be the superstars for the Devils and Broduer has to play as well as he has or better. Discipline will be key for both teams as neither can afford stupid penalties. The Devils not only need to score on their powerplay, they must not let the Kings get short-handed opportunities because they tend to bury those.

Keep an eye on the Devils fourth line. This may be the lone area where they have a slight advantage. For the Kings, simply watch Quick play in net. He is probably the NHL's best right now and is a pleasure to watch how easy he makes in look. If the Kings win, I expect he'll be named the Conn Smyth winner.

Here's hoping my final bet puts me back in the black.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

Special thanks to the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals for pushing their series to 7 games. The couple extra days provides me with an opportunity to get a jump on Round 3.

I did a little better this round but still not as well as I would like. The upsets just keep coming and another of my Cup finalists has been bounced.

Goaltending continues to be the focus of these playoffs and one of them will likely end up the Conn Smyth winner. But before you go and pencil in the winner to be the team with the best goaltending, don't forget that it takes at least a 4 goals to win a round.

Looking back on round 2.

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
Actual: NEW YORK RANGERS in 7

The Rangers took a bit longer than I expected but ended up on top primarily because their goaltending was just a tad better than the Capitals. In the Capitals defense, Holtby was seeing his first playoff action this year and got absolutely not support from the offense. For a team that was once a juggernaut on offense, it is a bit disturbing that they could must only 13 goals in a 7 game series. They'll certainly spend all summer kicking themselves for allow the Rangers to tie a game with less than 7 seconds left. Their improved play in the playoffs may have saved some jobs in Washington but the seriously need to consider who will lead this team going forward on an off the ice. I'll make the radical suggestion they should try to trade Ovechkin because stripping his captaincy is a difficult thing to do and he simply isn't captain material.

The only negative coming out of this series for the Rangers is the number of games they have played. They'll have to be prepared to play game 1 against the Devils in 48 hours against a well rested Devils team. They cannot afford to drop the first game at home because they are less than 100%. Fortunately for the Rangers they are relatively healthy.

PHILADELPHIA #5 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $90
Actual : NEW JERSEY in 5

The Flyers were exposed in this series. New Jersey did and excellent job of attacking the Flyers weakness and never letting up. While many might single of the enigmatic Bryzgolov as the source of the Flyers problems, the bigger problem was on defense. A quick physical forecheck by the Devils forced the defenders to make quick decisions and move the puck. The Flyers simply don't have the personnel on the back-end to deal with that. It was made worse by injuries to multiple defenders.

Meanwhile, the Devils continued to elevate their play. They are doing all the little things right. Everyone has adopted the team defense concept and it hasn't impacted their offense at all. The turnover on their roster the last couple of seasons has breathed new life into this team, perhaps just in time to get Broduer one more Cup.

The Flyers have great young group of players and they should have more chances to compete for the Cup in the next few years. All their talented offensive players play good defense, they just need to find a few more bodies on the back end. Also, during the summer, they'd be well-advised to find a good sports psychologist for Bryzgolov because he is going to be around for awhile whether they like it or not.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ST. LOUIS #2 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 7 - $25
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 4

I should have had more more faith in this pick. I think I was still trying to come to grips with how easily St. Louis dispatched with the San Jose Sharks. I've though all along that the Blues would play well, but they would eventually hit a brick wall due to their lack of team experience in the playoffs. It's a process teams have to go through and I expect they'll be back and better next season.

Everything seems to be going well for LA. All season long they suffered through and offensive drought despite have some decent offensive talent on the roster. Now the offense is clicking and the defense is just as strong if not stronger. They've been through this process before and were thus more prepared to handle the pressure of the playoffs than the Blues.

PHOENIX #3 vs NASHVILLE #4
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 6 - $130
Actual: PHOENIX in 5

I had the wrong read on this series. Everything that went right for Nashville in round 1 versus Detroit went bad for them against Phoenix. Sometimes when a team overcomes an obstacle early in the playoffs, they lose a bit of that drive in the next round. Detroit has always been Nashville's measuring stick and after beating them, they got a bit too comfortable. Phoenix was able to take advantage of that.

Despite my analysis that Phoenix was less skilled on just about every unit, they raised their level of play and ended up being superior on offense, on defense, on special teams and particularly in net. They are looking very much like the team that gave Detroit fits in the first round two years ago.

That's a pedestrian 2-2; not quite up to my expectations.

I lost $115 leaving me with only $530 of my original $1000.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80

The Rangers have everything that is needed to win a Stanley Cup. They've got leadership throughout the lineup, a roster of guys who play hard each and every shift and a coach who will tolerate nothing less. They are the best shot blockers in the league and frequently turn turnovers into scoring opportunities. With a strong presence in net the Rangers feel much more comfortable attacking when the opportunity presents itself. They are the number one seed for a reason.

The Devils have been one of the hottest teams in the league since early March and frankly it suprises me more than a little bit. If nothing else, the team has found a new hunger over the last 2 seasons. They have a nice balance of offense of defense and Broduer seems determined not to be the weak leak in what might be his last opportunity to win The Cup. They will have there hands full against a Rangers team who is much more disciplined the Devil's previous two opponents. Everyone has to buy into the team defense concept and not be caught on the ice for too long or in the wrong position. Keep tempers in check and keep Kovy scoring.

I know I'm going to get sick of hearing about how this is a replay of the famous 1994 7-game series between these two teams. Yes, it is the Rangers best team since that day (maybe better) but it is a different team. Whoever wins, I just hope it doesn't go seven games because I can stomach hearing too much about Messier's 1994 prediction. An athlete is bold or prophetic for predicting a win. He is simply cocky and stupid. Just play the game.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

PHOENIX #3 vs LOS ANGELES #8

Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $180

The teams with the best goaltending have risen to the top in the West and it has the makings of an excellent showdown. Since both teams come from the same division there will be a lot of familiarity between the foes and it shouldn't take long for intensity to reach peak level. Neither team is used to getting this far and they both face the challenge of trying to maintain the level of play they've had going the last 4 weeks.

Phoenix cannot win a high scoring affair and would be wise to play it very close to the vest and be opportunistic. Better to be safe than sorry. The Kings could look to push the pace a bit in an effort to get the Coyotes out of their game. But with as well coached as the Coyotes are, I don't think they'll bite. Look for a a number of low scoring contests with a couple more overtimes.

I'm picking the Kings because I believe that they are a notch better than the Coyotes on just about every unit. If that sounds familiar, it should because it was the same reason I picked the Predators over the Coyotes. The wildcard could be in net. Phoenix's goalie, Smith, has been spectacular. Then again, so has Quick. It may just come down to which one keeps that going.

That's a total of $260 bet. I need to save some for the finals. :)

I'll be back again at the end of this round. Until then I'll be enjoying the games and formulating a plan for life without hockey. Is the a southern hemisphere league???