Thursday, June 14, 2012

NHL Playoff Predictions - Recap

The horn has sounded and the confetti has fallen, the hockey season has come to an end. Even though they had a small hiccup (losing games 4 & 5 in the finals), the Kings march to be crowned champions was one of the most impressive runs in playoff history. They started each and every series by winning the first 3 games and they only lost one game on the road to Lord Stanley's Cup.

In the end the King's defense and goaltending overwhelmed the Devils. You could see the frustration building on their faces as the series went along. Although the Devils kept some of the games close, their was never much doubt about who controlled the gameplay.

At the start of the series I was less than impressed as a fan. The intensity that I'm used to seeing throughout the playoffs just wasn't there. With two disciplined teams playing what looked like a chess match, penalties were few and far between. Without the tension of the powerplay/penalty kill the hockey just wasn't very exciting. Sure, there was the drama of a couple overtimes but it certainly didn't match up the last few finals. Things did pick up as the series went along with games 4 & 5 very entertaining. It was very unusual watching clitching game 6 basically over by the end of the first period.

The Kings have officially arrived and I fully expect we'll see this team in the mix for years to come. In Quick they already have one of the best 3, if not the best, goaltenders in the world. He's still young and could get even better. That's scary. With Drew Doughty under contract, they've got a similar thing going on defense. The acquisitions of Carter and Richards bring strength and skill up front allowing everyone to fit into a role quite nicely. Finally, with many of these players signed to reasonable contracts, they should have the cap room to add even more pieces. Repeating is never easy and I'm far from prepared to make that prediction but it certainly wouldn't shock me if we saw this team playing in June again next year.

New Jersey has nothing to be ashamed of. Making it to the finals is no easy task and a team has to play some excellent hockey to get there. They've done a good job of adding youth to their roster over the last two years and the experienced they gained during this run is invaluable. The offseason is going to be a challenge though. With one of the owners facing bankrupcy, they are desperate for a new investor. In the meantime they need to sign their leader and best all around player, Parise. While he would probably love to stay in NJ, the real question is whether or not the Devils can afford him. There is also the looming question of Broduer's retirement. While I don't expect him to do so this summer, it isn't far away and the Devils have no one coming up that is capable of filling that hole.

Now to review my pick:

NEW JERSEY #6 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $500
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 6

Look at that, finally a perfect round. That brings me up to 7-8 for the entire playoffs $1130 vs my original $1000 for a profit of $130. That isn't very impressive but is actually pretty decent considering the hole I dug early on. To give it a little perspective, these same picks were entered into Norelco's Stanley Cup Challenge. In that I finished in 7665 out of 95813 entrants or top 8%.

I'm officially done tooting my horn.

So, the season is over. What will I do? I'm not done yet. I'm almost finished, Behind The Moves, a book about NHL general managers and how they've built the teams that play the game I love so much. I'm also knee deep in over analyzing the NHL free agent pool as the day for signing them is quickly approaching (July 1). I'll leave the draft analysis to the people who actually have an opportunity to watch those young prospects play. Maybe by next year's draft I'll have hired a scouting staff.