NHL Storylines

The eight and final installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

The regular season is over. season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.

San Jose - Apr 5/7 vs Los Angeles - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.

Pretty spot on about the importance of this series. Turns out Phoenix spoiled the party by winning the division. The games were very entertaining and certainly set the tone for the playoffs ahead. These two teams have had a difficult time this year maintaining any consistency for different reasons. Both will hope to turn it around in the coming weeks. I cannot remember a time where the 7 & 8 seeds were as dangerous as this year.

Buffalo - Apr 7 at Boston - Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.

The challenge became too much for Buffalo to overcome. If nothing else it served notice to the Sabres that games in the first half of the season are just as important as those in the second. For all the effort the Sabres put forth in the second half, they still came up short.

Edmonton - Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?

Edmonton did improve quite a bit this year and probably could have taken greater strides if they hadn't suffered so many injuries. There is still a lot of work to do on the defensive side and a more reliable goalie will have to be found. It won't be an easy task getting free agents to come to Edmonton.

NHL Storylines

The seventh installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

The season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.

Florida - Mar 17 vs Buffalo - After this game the Panthers finish with 9 of 12 on the road. Any hope of making the playoffs depends on being firmly in on Mar 17.

Florida was in first place in the division on March 17th but Washington and "another team" weren't far behind. Two weeks later the Panthers have almost wrapped up the division primarily because neither Washington or the "other team" can't find any consistency.

Chicago - Mar 21/25 - home games against Vancouver and Nashville should test just how playoff ready the squad is.

Chicago eeked out an OT Win against Vancouver but followed it up with a very poor showing against a Predator team they desperately needed to beat. It was mirror of Chicago's entire season. Keep playing that way and they'll have a tough time winning 7 game series.

Columbus - Mar 26/28 - home and home with a Detroit team that usually has its way with the Jackets. Have things really changed?

Columbus got blasted in the first of these two games as the Wings toyed with Columbus's shallow and defensively challenged lineup. Columbus responded to the beatdown by winning the second game but there is still a lot of work ahead. Columbus may be at the bottom of the NHL for a long time.

Elsewhere around the league

New York Rangers - The team may look back on early/mid March as the point that defined their season. They suffered a bit of a setback, dropping multiple games and suffered their first significant injuries of the season. Now back to their winning ways there are only a win or two away from securing the top seed and prepared for a long playoff run.

Boston - If the Bruins hadn't built such a big lead, more people would be talking about an epic collapse. Somehow they even yield first in the division to Ottawa for a day. Things are going better lately but they'll need to find that mid-season magic to have a deep playoff run. One of the few teams that hasn't suffered significant injuries.

Pittsburgh - On a roll and looking like the team to beat come playoff time. Crosby returned just in time to be going full steam come the playoffs. I see no reason to waver from my preseason prediction for them.

Philadelphia - Injuries have taken their toll but they are still in the thick of it thanks to much improved goaltending. Now out with an injury, the Flyers hopes of a deep run may hinge on Bryzgolov's quick return.

Buffalo - I'll admit, I was one of those that left the Sabres for dead. Frankly, they've benefited hugely from the lack of consistency among the East's bottom dwellers. They picked a good time to get hot, but are still in a battle just to make the playoffs. Will they have anything left when they get there.

Washington - This team is a pathetic. There is no excuse for them being so low in the standings based on the talent on the roster. It is simply a matter of desire to do the little things that the Caps don't have. Some hard choices ahead for management unless they somehow sneak in and win some playoff games.

St. Louis - All this team does is win and they do it by playing together as a team and making a commitment to defensive hockey. Huge props go to Hitchcock for getting the most out of this group. Playoffs are a different animal so it'll be interesting to see how the team handles it. They'll start at home and better get off to a go start.

Vancouver - It's tough playing hard when you've got little to play for. They are having real difficulty putting up points but at least the defense and goaltending is still strong.

Detroit - A ridiculous amount of injuries to three of their best players (Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Howard) led to an extended losing streak that killed any chance of winning the division. Starting to get healthy they should be in better shape come the playoffs. They had better be as the competition is going to be tough from game 1.

Nashville - Made the best moves at the trade deadline and are looking like a serious contender to win The Cup. Nothing seems to phase this team and the addition of Radulov will create matchup problems. I may have to set aside some time and cash to catch a playoff game or two.

Pacific Division - For what seems like months I've been watching this division race to see which team would take control. Here we are with 6 games left and only 2 points seperating 4 teams. San Jose has a big advantage in that they play all the other contending teams. Keep an eye out for the weekend finale where LA and San Jose meet twice in final 3 days and don't forget that the Kings stole an extra point due to a clock error in a game against Columbus.



April 7th is the last game of the season. I know where I'll be parked.

NHL Storylines

The sixth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

With the trade deadline looming this Monday, several teams have tough decisions to make. The moves teams make now will not only dictate their short-term future but will have an impact for seasons to come. Sometimes the best move is no move at all. Other times it is imperative a team embraces the reality of their shortcomings and starts planning for the future by making moves NOW!

Ottawa - Feb 3 vs New York Islanders - After playing 9 of 10 on the road, the Senators fate will probably be sealed. Check the roster and see how many players remain or are headed out of town.


The surprise team of the season appears to have a playoff spot locked up. Originally I would have expected this team to be a seller and continue the rebuild. Instead, they could add a piece or two. They must be very careful though. This is not a team ready to compete for The Cup. No need to break from the plan and give up and prospects. My advice is to stand pat. The only exception might be to obtain a goalie to make up for the injury suffered by Anderson.

Detroit - FEb 8 Edmonton - No, it isn't the opponent. At this point the Wings will have finished a brutal stretch of 21 of 31 on the road (WTF!). Their record at this time should be a good indicator of whether they can win the division, conference or the Cup. It's also a time the Wings start looking for a deal if they don't quite measure up.


The Wings came out of that brutal road stretch at or near the top of the division, conferene and league thanks to improved defense, strong goaltending and excellent depth. From their things only got better as they continued to pile up wins at home winning 24 in a row. With plenty of more home games to go and tougher stretch for the main pursuers, the Wings are in terrific position to get one of the top two spots. Only Vancouver and St. Louis stand in their way. The Wings made another shrewd move to acquire more defensive depth (Quincy) and now have the best group in the league again. With plenty of salary cap space available, they might not be done. They could stand pat and still be a threat. Add another gritty or skilled forward would scare the crap out of other teams.

MIN Feb 9 vs Vancouver - Back from a long stretch of road games (14 of 20) to play division rival. Are they still in the race?

How the Wild have a tumbled. Once a near lock to make the playoffs, they are now in a position where they'll have to win a majority of their games to have a shot at the #8 seed. The smart move is to start moving players for future assets because even if they make the playoffs, they won't be their long. By finally moving Zidiliky maybe they are embracing that mentaility.

PHX Feb 13 vs Vancouver a brutal homestand against some of the best the NHL has to offer has ended. Has the Coyotes brief rise already ended?

There is good news in the desert. After spending most of the season trying to gain some consistency, the Coyotes have gone a 9-0-1 run to put themselves into the #7 spot. Rumors are also circulating that a buyer for the team is about ready to seal the deal. But success ca be fleeting. The Coyotes are in a dogfight with 5 teams for the final 2 spots in the West and they've been down this ownership path before. With league in control of the budget, they probably won't add any significant pieces. Fans can only hope they keep their good players in place.

NYR Feb 16. The Rangers finish off a set of games against Philly, New Jersey, Tampa, Philly, Washington, Boston and Chicago, a real test against rivals and some of the league's best.

The Rangers continue to prove they are one of the best in the NHL. Full credit for this rise must go to the coach. The Rangers could use some more offense and have their eyes on Nash. This is move they need to be extremely careful about. With such good chemistry, moving the wrong piece in return could spell trouble. Columbus is going to want significant assets and if I'm Rangers management, I wait until the offseason to make this bold move.

TBL Feb 18 vs Washington. Tampa Bay gave the Caps fits in the division last year and we should know where that race stands at this point.

I applaud the Lightning for honestly accessing their situation and starting to move players for assets now rather than chasing the longshot at making the playoffs. The decision was probably easier to make since management overexceeded expectations last year. The Capitals are almost the opposite. Given the high expectations and closeness to the #8 seed, they need to make a move. Frankly, they have waited too long. I've got to wonder if they should make a really bold move to reshape the roster for the future. Nobody has mentioned it, but it might be worth thinking about moving Ovechkin. Ideally that would be after the season but that doesn't mean they shouldn't explore it now.

ANA Feb 23 at Carolina - End of a tough 8 game road trip. If they are still in the hunt at this point, they are in great shape.

Anaheim is a good example to use to point out just how difficult it is to move up in the NHL standings. This team has been on a tear for well over two months now. As much as they've worked their way back into the playoff discussion, they are still 6 points out with 5 teams in their way. They'll have to keep up their almost unbelievable pace the rest of the way to secure the #8 seed. Even with a favorable schedule, I wouldn't bet on it. After fighting this hard, they cannot give up and trade assets even though it might be in their best long-term interest.

THE FOLLOWING HAVEN'T COME TO PASS YET BUT ARE FOCUSSED ON MONDAY's TRADE DEADLINE

SJS Feb 28 vs Philly - A 9 game round trip ends with a test again revamped, young Philly roster. A good measuring stick.

So far, this road trip has not been good to the Sharks. A team that was in position to battle for the first or second seed appears could lose the division or even get knocked from the playoffs. With LA making signficant moves, San Jose is looking add pieces. Malone was a good start and rumors are they are interested in Nash. They need one more piece. The clock is ticking.

**** TRADE DEADLINE ****

COL Mar 3 vs Pit - Many road games after this one before the trade deadline. Will the Avalanche be tempted to trade more assets again?

The Avalanche are a border team and in a tough situation. They could certainly use the money of a playoff series. But the reality is they do not stack up well against a round 1 opponent and should be focused on the future. Moving some depth at defense (Quincy) for some grit up front (Downie) shouldn't be the only move.

CAR Mar 6 at Washington - After a nice home stretch the Canes hit the road for 12 of their last 17. If they aren't firmly in the playoff race at this point, their season is over. Schedule makers were not friendly to the Canes.

The Canes have been out of the race for months now and handling things quite well. They've explored the trade market and decided wisely that keeping some of their assets by signing them to new deals was best for the future. I'm sure they'll continue to take calls. With a couple good draft picks over the last few seasons, the Canes may be back in the hunt much quicker than expected.

DAL Mar 6 at Vancouver - end a Western Canada trip right before the trade deadline. Will the Stars unload more talent in hopes of restocking the roster?

Much like Colorado, this team is in the race, but simply ill-prepared for a round 1 playoff series. They've made a couple moves for the future and should be making more.

NAS Mar 10 vs Detroit - Heading into the trade deadline this division rivalry could determine whether the Predators are buyers or sellers.

I'll be in attendance for this particular game in two weeks and cannot wait for what I assume will be a playoff like atmosphere. Nashville is clearly in the playoff picture and has the pieces in place for an extended playoff run. They've already fortified a strong defense with Hal Gill and would probably like a little more scoring up front. They'll have trouble making any move that adds cash as they still need to re-sign Weber and Suter in the offseason. Keep an eye on them on trade deadline day.

CAL Mar 13 vs San Jose - The trade deadline looms. Are the Flames willing to embrace the rebuild now?

I keep harping on this team and I won't stop now. They live in a world of illusion that makes them think making the playoffs is their ultimate goal. A team that should be doing every thing they can to fix their future, keeps giving it away for a brief run now. If they do it again on Monday, management should be fired. It is only another year or two until Iginla and Kiprisoff are gone. Then what?

NJD Mar 15 - Trade dealine. Will Broduer consider a move to a contender for another shot. It is hard to predict who that contender might be because goaltending is pretty locked up for most. But make no mistake about it, the call will be Broduer's to make.

Fortunately for Devil's management, they are in the thick of the playoff race and don't have to worry about facing this decision. I honestly don't think the Devils stand much chance in the playoffs but with the inconsistency of all but the Rangers in the East, any team might go on a run.

The Devils made a big move yesterday to acquire Zidlicky but the cost was BIG. I've got to wonder whether that was a move for the future Devils or one to give Marty one last shot.

TOR Mar 15 - Trade Deadline - See if Burke can add some significant pieces because the fans are getting restless.

Burke has to be dying to make a move but is also smart enough to know his team isn't quite ready to compete in the playoffs. If the right move comes along, he won't hesitate to make it but I wouldn't be shocked if he stands pat even if it means missing the playoffs again.

LAK Mar 16 at Anaheim - The end of 15 of 20 on the road and right near the trade deadline. Is the team ready for playoff level hockey?

No team needed to make a move more than LA. Game after game their defense and goaltending would hold their opponent in check only to see their offense score 0 or 1 goals leading to a loss. They desperately needed some offense. They finally pulled the trigger adding Carter at a big price. They should have made this move weeks ago. Will Carter be enough to get them to the playoffs and make some noise. That's what is expected in LA or the season is a bust. Keep on eye on them to see if they make another move because they have some more assets they could move.

Elsewhere around the league

A couple more teams to keep an eye on come Monday's trade deadline:

Philadelphia - I believe their moves are done but many seem to think they'll add another goalie. At what cost?

Boston - They have the assets to make a move and might want to adjust based on their less than ideal play over the last month.

Buffalo - They really need to move a few assets to start the retooling necessary. Offseason moves were a disaster. Will they wait for new management before making more moves.

Florida - An overachieving team shouldn't be diverting from their plan for the short-term. Standing pat is the best move by Tallon isn't one to watch when moves start happening.

Chicago - Their recent winning streak shouldn't mask the problems the Hawks have on defense. With many of the best assets already gone, Chicago may have to overpay for scraps in hopes of improving a spot that'll get exposed come May.

NHL Storylines

The fifth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

Edmonton - Jan 7 at Dallas - end of a 7 game road trip and about the halfway point of the season. Are the Oiler near .500? .400?


Edmonton is struggling, sitting at about .440 after a big win against Chicago last night. It hasn't help that each of their young stars has been absent for one or more games over the last couple of months. The are positive signs from this group but there is still a long way to go. No point mortgaging the future at this point but if a couple veterans can be moved for future assets, preferably ones ready to play at the NHL level, they might as well get started.

Columbus - Jan 14 vs San Jose - This game concludes a tough stretch (Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose) which should be a good measuring stick to see if Columbus is significantly improved.

Columbus went 2-5 in that stretch and didn't look even decent in most of the games. Columbus is the worst team in the NHL. It isn't even close. Its a bit surprising given they made some really decent moves in the offseason and it has to be demoralizing to the hometown fans. Now, talk is that they would mind out from the Carter contract. Frankly, moving him for more pieces would be a good thing.

New York Islanders - Jan 10-19. Dates against Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, Washington and Philly in a little over a week will really test the roster. If they have truly grown, they'll show it here. Otherwise, its "maybe next year" again.

The Islanders went 4-1 in this stretch of games, playing their best hockey of the season. Tavares is finally showing why he was rated so high since he laced then up as a junior many seasons ago. Unfortunately for the Islanders this all comes way to late to salvage a shot at the playoffs this season. But, if they can continue to compete, it should be a nice confidence boost entering next season. The Islanders are still a few pieces away from being in the mix.

Chicago - Jan 20 vs Florida - Afer this game the Blackhawks head on a 9 game road trip. They need to be in the thick of the race before then or making the playoffs may be tough.

Well, the home friendly schedule has come to an end and the Blackhawks are playing some really inconsistent hockey lately. While the teams around them seem to finding their groove, the Hawks have regressed and played sloppy defense just about every other night. The road trip got off to a bad start with an overtime loss in Vancouver and got worse with an 8-4 beatdown by the lowly Edmonton Oilers. They need to find their 60 minute game on this roadtrip or they'll be out of the division race and face a much tougher task come playoff time.

Elsewhere around the league

Florida - The Panthers are hanging tough despite the Capitals biting at their heals. They may have to win the division to get into the playoffs so their upcoming slate of divisional games is the key to their season.

Calgary - A trade with Montreal may have worked. With such a close race for the final spot in the West, this could be the move that gets them in. But don't expect that run to last long as this team is miles behind the West elite.

Pittsburgh - Just when it looked like this team had started a free-fall to a position out of the playoffs, Malkin took the team on his back and carried them to an 8 game winning streak. Back in the thick, they'll hope and wait for Crosby to return. In the meantime they better stay focussed or they'll tumble again.

Nashville - The more I see of this squad, the more I think they could seriously contend for The Cup. One more offensive piece could do wonders for this team. However, with Suter and Weber still awaiting new contracts, they probably aren't going to add much payroll. Which ever team faces this team in round 1 will have their hands full.

Last time I looked at the current standings with an eye towards the playoffs and speculated that any team 10 points in front pretty much had a playoff spot locked up and any team more than 10 point out was done. With another month completed, 8 is now the magic number:

VIRTUAL LOCKS
-------------
New York Rangers
Boston
Philly

Detroit
Vancouver
San Jose
Nashville
St. Louis
Chicago

OUT
--------------
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
New York Islanders
Montreal
Carolina

Anaheim
Edmonton
Columbus

The West is just about set. I fully expect to see LA join the crowd over the next couple of weeks. That would leave several teams (Minnesota, Dallas, Colorado, Calgary and Phoenix) fighting for a single spot. Let's see how many of those are left at the end of February.

Meanwhile in the East, there are probably 4 spots in play with 6-7 teams looking to fill them. The real kicker is the Southeast Division where the winner will probably claim the #3 seed but the loser could miss out completely yet be only a couple points behind the division leaders.

The race is heating up. Everyone must elevate their play.

Next installment will hopefully be before the trade deadline. The next couple weeks will determine the buyers and sellers.

NHL Storylines

The fourth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

Boston - Dec 5 - The team starts with a very favorable home heavy schedule before hitting the road on this date. If they are aren't in the top 4 at this point, it could be a sign of trouble.


Well, Boston is riding high having played exception hockey since their 3-7 start. They keep playing like this and they'll be the favorites to bring home the Cup again.

Calgary - Dec 10 vs Edmonton - With the Flames ready for a brutal road stretch (11 of 13) they get an opportunity to prove they are still kings of the province.

Calgary may have won two in a row against Edmonton but they aren't exactly making a big impact against the rest of the NHL. A highly streaky team, they'll have to find some more consistency to make the playoffs. Otherwise, rumors of an Iginla trade will continue to swirl.

Los Angeles - Dec 13 - Dec 28 - A stretch featuring games against Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago - A very good measuring stick against consistent playoff proven talent.

It took firing the coach but the Kings got the message. They have managed to turn around their season just in the nick of time. As of this moment they sit in eighth place but are only a point out of third. While they may have missed their chance to get involved in the race for #1 in the West, they are very much in the fight for the division crown.

New Jersey - Dec 20 vs NYR - Coming off a long stretch of road games, the Devils return home to face a division rival heading in the opposite direction (up). If the Devils are still in the thick of the race at this point, Broduer may have his one more chance in NJ.

New Jersey isn't done just yet. While they aren't likely to be a competitor for the conference or even division crown, they have managed to stay in the thick of the playoff race despite sub par offense. If they can somehow up the offense, they could climb the standings a bit. Otherwise, they should be in the battle for one of the bottom 2 spots.

Toronto - Dec 22 vs Buffalo - The Leafs play three straight home games against Vancouver, LA and Buffalo before the Christmas holiday. How well they compete in these games will signal how far the team has come.

The Leafs won just one of these three games (Buffalo) and things aren't looking so pretty in Toronto anymore. An early season stocked with relatively weak talent masked many of the weaknesses that remain on this squad. While they still in the thick of it for a playoff spot, they need to find some more consistency. The next couple of weeks will be critical.

Phoenix - Dec 31 at Minnesota - The clock strikes midnight and the year ends with the Coyotes in the middle of an extended road trip. Is their season already done? Will they stay in Phoenix? Is anybody watching?

After being quite competitive in the early season, Phoenix is falling on hard times. With so little margin for error in the Western Conference, Phoenix has a tough road ahead. Meanwhile, the fans are NOT coming out to see this team, even when they are competitive. The owners have already said they don't want to run the team beyond this season so the clock is officially ticking towards the end of this franchise. I don't want to see them leave but someone needs to step up SOON.

Pittsburgh - Jan 1 - The opponents aren't the key but rather is Crosby back on ice. Without him the best the Penguins can expect is another early playoff exit

Things don't look go for a Crosby return. The fact that he came back once and almost immediately went back on the shelf certainly means they have to be even more cautious about any future return. There is still time for him to be a return and play in the playoffs where they'll absolutely need him. I would think that somewhere about mid-March would be the make or break date.

Philadelphia - Jan 2 vs NYR - After a brutal road stretch between Nov 9 and this date, the Flyers come home to face a division rival in the Winter Classic. If they are still in the thick of the race for the division title, this team could be a Cup contender this year. Otherwise, the patience of the home town folks will be tested.

The good news for Flyer fans is that they are still in the thick of the race for the division and conference title. The bad news is they are reeling a bit at the moment and haven't looked good against Boston or the Rangers. Injuries have taken a toll on the defense and leadership and at some point the Flyers will probably be forced to make a trade for at least another serviceable defenseman. Now more than ever, Ilya "The Universe" Bryzgolov needs to show why they paid him the big bucks.

Elsewhere around the league

Washington - Just in the nick of time, the Capitals have turned it around. I have a sneaky feeling the GM was just about ready to pull a deal involving a significant piece when the Caps put together a 5 game winning streak and Ovechkin got going. It'll be a big task to get the #1 seed, but the division lead is only a few points away.

Minnesota - Everybody's storybook team through the first couple of months of the season has finally come back to earth. I don't expect we'll see them climb back up. With a young coach and young squad it is difficult to bring a team out of a funk. They could still get a playoff spot, but they had better turn things around in the next couple weeks.

New York Rangers - Right about now, I'm regretting not picking the Rangers to win their division. This is a squad that continues to grow as a team under Tortella's guidance. They remind me a lot of Boston without quite the firepower or depth. But they have all the right ingredients for an extended playoff run.

While it might seem a little early to lock anyone into the playoffs, the reality is that it is VERY difficult for any team to overcome more than a 10 point deficit with just over 40 games to go. Using that number as a guideline:

Boston and New York Rangers should be almost locks to make the playoffs because they are 9 and 8 points in front of the #9 team, respectively.

Carolina and the New York Islanders are virtual locks to miss the playoffs because they are 10 or more points behind the #8 team.

Montreal and Tampa Bay have a tough road ahead as they currently sit 7 points behind the #8.

Nobody is really a lock to make the playoffs in the West but Vancouver, Chicago and Detroit are growing close.

On the other hand, Edmonton, Anaheim and Columbus can book tee times for April now.

NHL Storylines

The third installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

Anaheim - Nov 5 at Detroit - Long road trip ends against a team the Ducks like to measure themselves against. How's Hiller health? Can Perry continue his hot streak?


Anaheim has some serious problems. The most dangerous line in hockey is anything but. The defense is pedestrian and secondary scoring is non-existent. Things haven't got better since the Ducks arrived home and now they find themselves in the precarious position of digging out of a deep hole in the ultra competitive West.

St. Louis - Nov 5 at Minnesota - Another team with a brutal stretch of road games to start the season (11 of 15). In a competitive Western Conference, St. Louis must emerge from this stretch close to .500 of risk being on the outside yet again.


One thing is for certain. Management in St. Louis was not going to sit back and settle for a mediocre start. While coaching may have been the unfair target, it is hard to question the Blues made the right decision to make a move. History is full of teams that acted too late to save the season. St. Louis may have made the move at just the right time. Hitchcock has quickly turned things around and got the Blues back in the hunt. Every point counts in this race and at least management understands that.

Minnesota - Nov 5 - A difficult set of opponents graces the Wild's early schedule (Detroit x3, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Vancouver x2). If the Wild are competitive in these games, it'll set the tone for a good season.


Easily the biggest surprise of the season and frankly I'm a bit shocked they've held it together for so long with questionable offense and a rather young defense. I'm still not convinced they can hold it together in the long run but they have convinced me they can stay in the hunt for a playoff spot. A key home stand is next before hitting the West Coast for some games that will determine just how good this team can be.

Nashville - Nov 12 vs Montreal - a road heavy opening schedule (10 of first 15) finally ends. Predators cannot afford to dig a deep whole against the talented conference.


Once again, Nashville and coach Trotz have shown to be a resilient bunch. They are on a tear as of late an quickly climbing the standings in the West. What I saw in person wasn't impressive but apparently that was an aberration more than a norm. As usual, Nashville is playing a lot of close games but finding ways to win. Keep it up and they'll get yet another shot to prove their worth in the playoffs.

Dallas Nov 19 vs San Jose - About 30 games in, see how the coach is doing, how Lehtonen is holding up and where the teams confidence is at.


Dallas's great start is quickly fading away. Everything that went right early, has fallen apart lately. This is somewhat expected considering the lack of depth and youth on this roster. Fortunately, the team is still playing hard, so there is no reason to make any radical moves. As the season wears on, I expect the Stars will have more and more trouble grabbing wins so it is essential they take advantage of every opportunity presented.

Elsewhere around the league

Look at the following recent scores. Notice a trend?:

Dallas 5 - Washington 2
Edmonton 3 - Montreal 1
St. Louis 3 - Chicago 0
Ottawa 5 - Toronto 2
Winnipeg 5 - Tampa Bay 2
Winnipeg 4 - Washington 1
Calgary 5 - Chicago 2
Toronto 7 - Washington 1
Edmonton 9 - Chicago 2

It is not just that perennial doormats are winning games, it is that they are winning them in embarrassing fashion over teams that are considered among the elite. This season, even more so than past seasons, there is little difference between the top and bottom teams. With the possible exception of Columbus, New York Islanders and Calgary, every team has very good chance to win any game. Throughout the course of this season, I expect to see very little spread between the top 1-13 teams in each conference. Be very leery if your favorite team hits an extended losing streak or lets a game slip away because those couple points could make a huge difference come April.

Boston - Apparently the team finally got the message and has turned things around. Just in the nick of time. A 9 game winning streak has them back near the top of the conference where I expect they'll remain

Washington - There is something seriously wrong in the nations capital and this time I'm not talking about the government. There is a clear divide between the coaching staff and some of the players. This sort of situation has played out before and it rarely has a good ending without a coaching change. Things had better turn around in the next couple weeks or management will have to make a move or risk losing the season.

New York Rangers - Another team that got of to a less than ideal start has turned things around significantly. There are still some troubling signs but as long a Lundquist stays healthy they should be in the mix.

Pittsburgh - Sid the Kid returns an immediately makes an impact. A dangerous team has become even more dangerous. It'll be interesting to see how the big 3 in the Atlantic Division matchup when they start playing each other.

Toronto - A hot start has quickly cooled off. Does this sound familiar for Toronto? It should. Troubles in net have been magnified with the injury to Reimer. With the margin for victory so slim it'll be interesting to see if Burke has something up his sleeve in the next couple weeks.

Detroit - What a roller coaster ride of a season. The good thing is they are playing good hockey in almost all the games, just having trouble find the net at times. Jimmy Howard is playing great in goal and the defense is improved. Both great signs for the long run.

Vancouver - Still mired with inconsistency, they'll have to find get back to dominating more opposition in the coming month. If not, the pressure will increase by the day.

Colorado, Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, New York Islanders - Time is already running short for these franchises. They are either mired in season long slumps or falling quickly. If an adjustment isn't made soon, they're out of it. Next up the fire sale.

NHL Storylines

The second installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

Buffalo - Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals.

Tampa won both of these contests but Buffalo has gone 6-2 in their other contests to send a pretty clear message that they will be in the thick of the race throughout the season. With Boston and Montreal struggling in the early going, Buffalo has a very good chance of capturing the division title.

Carolina - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again.

Carolina survives the early road trip but could be in much better position had they managed to avoid a couple overtime and shutout losses. For a team on the edge, every single point counts.

Colorado - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use.

Colorado really couldn't have asked for a better start. The challenge now is to find a way to get Duchesne back to form and maintain the early success. This team has started strong before only to fade during the winter months.

New York Rangers - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations.

Normally a .500 record on such a road-trip would be decent but the Rangers are continuing to show signs of the team that had trouble making the playoffs the last couple years, not a team improving. 3 losses after regulation have really hurt their confidence. Dropping the first game back at Madison Square Garden didn't exactly make the fans feel comfortable. Not to worry, today's word is the Rangers have called Sean "The Savior" Avery back to the big club. Oh Boy!

Montreal - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.

Things were looking extremely bleak for the Canadiens until they strung together 3 straight wins against Philly and Boston. We'll see over the next couple weeks if they can maintain some success.

Washington - Oct 29 at Vancouver - This team can only measure itself against the best.

If this was the only game of importance, Washington failed the test. Fortunately, they have passed just about every other one including decisive victories against Philly and Detroit. But following those with losses to Edmonton and Vancouver, there are still questions about consistency. To get where the Capitals want to be, they cannot afford to mail in any games.

Florida - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together.


Florida has had it's share of good and bad to start the season, somewhat expected from a roster with so much turnover. The next month will be critical as the team tries to settle into a rhythm and stay in the hunt.

Elsewhere around the league

Boston - What has started bad has only gotten worse. The latest was 2 losses to arch rival Montreal. There is too much talent on this team to stay down but the team is quickly realizing that being on top means every opponent comes in focused and ready to play. Boston needs to learn that anything less than 100% isn't going to get it done.

Philadelphia - A great start to the season has hit a minor slide. This isn't surprising considering the amount of turnover on the roster. What is surprising is that the defense has struggled so much. Pronger's absence hurts but good teams need to overcome this kind of loss. Bryzgolov needs to earn his pay in every start.

Detroit - Another great start has gone by the wayside as the team has struggled in recent contests. The Washington loss was the most troubling but the lack of offense is a concern. Babcock will look to shake it up before long.

Edmonton - The early surprise of the season is the young guys in Alberta. Most, including myself, questioned the teams goaltending but it has been marvelous so far. I don't think the success can last but the confidence it is building on the young talented team shouldn't be understated.

Toronto - Another early success story that has the puck crazed town in a frenzy. I think it is a little early to get excited though as Toronto has had a very favorable early schedule. Let's see how they do against the better teams. But with Boston and Montreal struggling, Toronto could be the beneficiary.

NHL Storylines

After a couple weeks of play, "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions have passed. As promised, I'm here to evaluate them.

Vancouver - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experiencing a funk from their failure.

Vancouver lost both of these contests despite playing good for portions of each game. The problem is the team can't seem to stay focussed for a full 60 minutes. Even in the games they won, they were seriously challenged by their opponents. It's more than a little obvious the team is rusty. You could call it a "Cup Hangover" except they didn't win it. You'd think they would have come back more determined. Instead it looks like they are feeling sorry for themselves. The good news is the team has plenty of time to sober up.

Tampa Bay - Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season.

After 6 games, Tampa is 1-3-2 and they are not playing the style of hockey that got them to the Conference Finals just a few months ago. The poor start is going to be a challenge for a young coaching staff. Many teams make a big splash only to fall back a bit the next season. If Tampa can't get the defense under control, they'll find themselves fighting for a playoff spot.

Elsewhere around the league

The real story of the early season isn't at the top of the standings but at the bottom.

Boston - Early struggles mimic the Canucks. Carrying the Cup around all offseason takes its toll. Somehow I doubt Bruin fans are too worried.

San Jose - Another team that should be focussed has come out anything but. How long until the fans start pointing fingers at the usual scapegoats?

Calgary - A slow start is not what this bubble team needed. Keep it up much longer and I fully expect to see a firesale.

Columbus - No team could ill afford a poor start less than Columbus. They did a lot in the offseason to garner some good will with their fans but it has all gone to hell. Wiesnewski's suspension certainly isn't helping. Now with Carter injured, things could unravel.

New York Rangers - They haven't won yet, but they have only played 3 games. But they've got 4 more on the road in Western Canada before returning home. First up Vancouver. The Madison Square Garden fans aren't going to be so welcoming if they come home with only a couple of points.

Nobody wins a championship in October but plenty of teams lose their chance to compete for one. Just last year, the difference between the #2 seed and out of the playoffs was a meager 10 points in the West and only 15 points in the East. That equates to roughly 1 win a month. A team the stuggles early will be fighting all season to make that up.

I'll be checking in again at the end of the month. At that point, I'll have a few more "Circle The Dates" to evaluate plus a better feel on who the surprise teams might be.

NHL 2011-2012 Predictions

For once I'm not putting this off to the last moment. Maybe this time I can eliminate the typos and delete the nonsense ramblings.

This year I make predictions with a heavy heart. For the first time in 12 years I won't get to watch NHL hockey in Atlanta. No more cheering for the home team and attending games with Crimson on a weekly basis. I'll watch plenty of hockey on TV but it won't be quite the same.

With that in mind, hopefully you'll understand why I've chosen to ignore one particular team in these predictions. As far as I am concerned, that team doesn't exist and deserves none of my attention. At some point perhaps I'll discuss this team, but now is not that time.

Making these predictions gets harder every year. The difference between the teams gets narrower each year. A team can rise fast with the right free agent acquisition or the breakout of a young star. A another team can fall just as fast as the result of a key injury or a bad trade.

There were some risky moves made during the offseason, some key retirements, a huge lingering injury and some major free agent moves. Each of these will probably impact the race for The Cup. While neither of The Cup finalists made major moves during the offseason, their appearances were not flukes so I suspect they'll be in the thick of it again come next spring.

In addition to a few notes about a team, I’m going to assign them a “trend”. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend. A team has a "trend" value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).

Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. There are growing number of teams who could care less about how well they perform in regular season as long as they perform in the playoffs. A few coaches jobs will probably depend on substantial playoff success this season.

Here we go.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Washington Capitals [+] – It's a little scary to think this team could be even better but I have my suspicions that last year was a bit of a down year for them as they tried to reinvent themselves a bit. The desire to play a more defensive style was the right approach, but in the process, their prolific offensive attack suffered. In steps what I think was one of the best, if not the best, acquisition of the offseason, goalie Thomas Vokoun. Not only did they manage to sign one of the best free agent goalies for pocket change, they were also able to move one of their extra goalies for 1st and 2nd round picks next spring. All that being said, I don't think goaltending was at the heart of their problems. I do expect the confidence the team will have playing in front of Vokoun should translate into opening up the offense again.

Every year the Caps go in search of veteran leadership while waiting for homegrown leadership to emerge. It's the last key piece to getting this team deep in the playoffs. Adding Brouwer, Halpern and Hamrlik should be boosts at both ends but it is time the some of the stars take on this burden. An extended Cup run should be the only thing that keeps coach Boudreau in the fold as another playoff collapse with this much talent would be historic in a bad way.

Circle The Dates: Oct 29 at Vancouver, Mar 29 at Boston - This team can only measure itself against the best.

2. Pittsburgh Penguins [nt] – No team faces a bigger question mark than the Penguins, and it all centers around the health of their star player, Sidney Crosby. Prior to last season's injury, Crosby was on a tear unlike any seen since the time of Gretzky. The concussion he suffered in January changed all that. As I write this, Crosby is still uncleared for physical contact. All indications are Crosby will return this season, but it probably won't be right away. There is still a slight possibility he'll never return. I expect the franchise to be extremely cautious. Last season through a feat of great coaching they were able to be competitive without Crosby and Malkin around but their loss hurt tremendously once the playoffs started. Without Crosby in the mix, this team falls back. With him they are a serious contender for finalist from the East.

The roster is much the same with their biggest addition being Steve Sullivan to add a bit more grit. The key player may be Neal who came over at the trade deadline last season. He'll need to become the force he was in Dallas to keep this team afloat if Crosby is out for a long time. The defense is sound and Fluery, in goal, is above average. Fluery better continue to grow though as the top of the East is getting loaded consistently great goalies.

Circle The Dates: Jan 1, March 15 - The opponents aren't the key but rather is Crosby back on ice. Without him the best the Penguins can expect is another early playoff exit.

3. Boston Bruins [+] – It took few years of playoff disappointment, but a group littered with talent finally won the big one. From the looks of it, the team is setup to be in the hunt for years to come. With the experience of winning The Cup now in the back pocket of much of the roster, they'll understand just what it takes to get there. While the grind of the long playoff run and the offseason celebration can make it hard to repeat, I suspect this squad to handle it quite well. With a deep roster capable of overcoming injuries, they should be setup nicely for another run come spring.

Circle The Dates: Dec 5 - The team starts with a very favorable home heavy schedule before hitting the road on this date. If they are aren't in the top 4 at this point, it could be a sign of trouble.

4. Philadelphia Flyers [-] – No team made more risky moves in the offseason than Philly. The team traded away two significant offensive stars (Carter/Richards) and let a couple others walk in free agency. It was an odd move for a team that appeared to be on the cusp of The Cup. Look a little deeper though and the moves make some sense. First and foremost, there are questions about how the next CBA will affect teams/payroll. If nothing else, these moves give the Flyers much more flexibility moving forward. Also, these moves allow the Flyers to build around emerging stars rather than aging (a term used relatively here) ones. The team is now stocked with offensive potential from top to bottom while still enough veteran grit to hold the team together. Management obviously expects players like Girous and Van Riemsdyk (no longer trade bait) to continue to grow and fill the void. No longer is the locker room filled with players who don't quite buy into the team concept and if the return for the Carter/Richards trade can live up to their expectations, it won't be long before this team is right back near the top. But with all the new pieces I have my doubts that this will come this season. The one player who doesn't fit this mold is Jagr and frankly I'm mystified why they made this move. But it is only a one year contract so there is little risk involved. Talbot may actually prove to be the most significant offensive acquisition.

All that and I didn't bring up goaltending. Obviously the Flyers finally saw what the rest of us have noticed for years and went out and acquired talent capable of stabilizing their goal crease for the next 9 years. They paid a hefty toll for that addition. If only they had made it a couple seasons ago. Bryzgolov's play should improve the defense overall and allow the offensive players to do what they do best, score goals. This move does hamper the development of Sergei Bobrovsky and it'll be an interesting side story to watch.

Finally, there is the health of Chris Pronger. The heart and soul of this team had a tough season last year due to injury and needs to get back in the fold sooner rather than later. Without him the defense is more than a little suspect.

Circle The Dates: Jan 2 vs NYR - After a brutal road stretch between Nov 9 and this date, the Flyers come home to face a division rival in the Winter Classic. If they are still in the thick of the race for the division title, this team could be a Cup contender this year. Otherwise, the patience of the home town folks will be tested.

5. Buffalo Sabres [++] – Talk about making a splash. New ownership took over the team and wasted little time writing checks. $78 millon was dished out to a total of four players. Each of those players SHOULD be capable of improving the Sabres, giving them depth they have lacked in recent years. However, buying a solution is a risky process, just ask the Rangers. There are still big questions about whether these players can mesh and if some of them might be content now that they have the stuffed wallets.

With coach Ruff in command, expect these new additions excel. Although they may not be ready for a Cup run just yet, they should be a serious contender in the East and give Boston a fight in the Northwest Division. The team still lacks superstar level talent up front but with stellar goaltending and plenty of good responsible players throughout the roster, they'll be pegged as this years "surprise" team. Much like Tampa last year, if this team succeeds, it won't be a surprise to me.

Circle The Dates: Oct 22/25 away and home vs Tampa. The team starts off with a 5 of their first 7 on the road which ends with a series against last year's "surprise". Come out of that in good shape and it could be the confidence boost that sends the team all the way to the finals. Apr 7 at Boston. Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.

6. New York Rangers [++] – The addition of Richards was a BIG one for the Rangers. They desperately needed a quality first-line center with a scoring touch. But Richards isn't the only reason I see the Rangers making a big jump. It is the development of the young players that really stands out. They finally have a group on the upside of their careers instead of the downside.

There are two things they need to worry about. First, Gaborik must stay healthy and put more pucks in the net. Second, they need to manage Lundqvuist better. They are allowing him to start far too many games and with a realistic shot of an extended playoff run, they need to make sure he is rested. With Biron as a quality backup, this shouldn't be an issue.

Circle The Dates - Oct 27 vs Toronto. After starting the season with 7 straight road games, they return to a remodeled Madison Square Garden. A slow start is not acceptable for a team with high expectations. Feb 16. The Rangers finish off a set of games against Philly, New Jersey, Tampa, Philly, Washington, Boston and Chicago, a real test against rivals and some of the league's best.

7. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][+] – The big "surprise" of last season (although let the record show I predicted it) will be back in the hunt once again. However, it is my belief that not all will align quite right this season and the Lightning will probably take a small step back. That's still a huge improvement for a team that was in the dumps less than 2 years ago. It's just further proof what good ownership and management can do. Yzerman was smart to go out an get Roloson last year but he isn't foolish enough to think Roloson can keep it up forever. Signing Garon as his backup was nice insurance. Perhaps they'd be interested in Broduer if injury or declining skills hit their roster.

The Lightning are dynamic on offense and play a defensive game that frustrates opponents. It's a modified trap system but I suspect teams will be better prepared for it this time around. The key to their playoff run was hard-working two-way forwards, something Yzerman learned a ton about in Detroit. Some of those players have now moved on so it is up to the replacements to continue the success.

Defense has a nice mix of young and old but could really use another piece to get them to the next level. St. Louis and Lecavalier aren't getting any younger so this team's future has a few questions marks.

Circle The Dates: Oct 17 vs Florida - Schedule makers weren't friendly and have Tampa playing its first 5 games on the road. Come out of this trip with some success and it'll build confidence they are ready to repeat last season. Feb 18 vs Washington. Tampa Bay gave the Caps fits in the division last year and we should know where that race stands at this point.

8. Carolina Hurricanes [nt] – Just when it looked like the team was headed for a long slide, along comes a rookie of the year, Skinner, to breathe some new life into the franchise. There are still glaring holes all around the roster but with quality coaching, great goaltending and a little more bulk up front they could compete for a lower seed.

The Canes made some wise moves in the offseason, mostly involving retaining quality players like Pirkanen and Ruutu. But the additions of Kaberle and backup goalie Boucher shouldn't be overlooked. For a team running on a tight budget, they did quite well.

Circle The Dates - Oct 25 vs Ottawa - Canes return home after playing 6 of their first 8 on the road. They cannot afford a poor start again. Mar 6 at Washington - After a nice home stretch the Canes hit the road for 12 of their last 17. If they aren't firmly in the playoff race at this point, their season is over. Schedule makers were not friendly to the Canes.

----

9. New Jersey Devils [-] – Last year I said "always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs". Nothing could have described their season any better. I think they are still in that boat so they've got to hope that Parise is fully recovered, Broduer doesn't get injured again and no one else, particularly on defense is out for an extended period. This isn't the old Devils. There is little depth on the roster and no cash to bring more talent aboard. But make no mistake, Kovalchuk and Parise are world class talents. Unfortunately, the roster around them is filled with declining players and set of youngsters with minimal upside. This is the last year of Broduer's contract and probably his last hurrah. You've got to wonder if both parties wouldn't have been better off ending the partnership. I don't like to count the Devils out as they usually find a way to make it happen. But with several other teams on the rise and the top teams getting better I suspect they'll be out of it come playoff time.

Circle the Dates: Dec 20 vs NYR - Coming off a long stretch of road games, the Devils return home to face a division rival heading in the opposite direction (up). If the Devils are still in the thick of the race at this point, Broduer may have his one more chance in NJ. March 15 - Trade dealine. Will Broduer consider a move to a contender for another shot. It is hard to predict who that contender might be because goaltending is pretty locked up for most. But make no mistake about it, the call will be Broduer's to make.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs {+] – After thinking the Leafs had turned the corner, they struggled far too much in the first half of the season. This franchise is a perfect example of how hard it is to recover when a team begins to slide. Youth on the roster is starting to come together but I don't think there is enough quality experienced talent to carry them along. They could make a push for a lower seed if goaltender Reimer carries the team but that will be tough. The Leafs failure to land an offensive impact player in the offseason really hurts their chances. Look for GM Burke to try to find that player before the season is over.

Circle The Dates - Dec 22 vs Buffalo. The Leafs play three straight home games against Vancouver, LA and Buffalo before the Christmas holiday. How well they compete in these games will signal how far the team has come. Trade Deadline - See if Burke can add some significant pieces because the fans are getting restless.

11. Montreal Canadiens [-] – Montreal is historically a tough team for me to pick, especially in the regular season. Their roster always screams mediocrity and looks like it'll be on the boundary come playoff time. This season is no different. Until last season I had difficulty accepting Carey Price as a legitimate top flight goaltender. Now, he appears to be the real deal and the strength of club.

The team made few acquisitions in the offseason, so they had better hope Markov can return from his injury and make a big impact. Gomez is sliding quickly and I'm sure Montreal would love to deal his huge salary. With no real superstars and mediocre depth, they are going to find it difficult to make the playoffs with other teams improving around them.

Circle The Dates - Oct 27/29 vs Boston - After a home heavy schedule to start the season, the Habs play two against arch-rival and Stanley Cup Champion Boston. Perform well in these contests or the season will be a long one.

12. New York Islanders [O4][++] – Is this finally the year the Islanders plethora of high draft picks get the team to the playoffs? I just don't see it happening. There are far too many quality teams out there and with big question marks in goal and on defense, they still have a ways to go. Ideally the Islanders would add a veteran or two to show the way but it has got to be tough to convince a veteran to join a team with so little recent success, a history of coaching changes and an arena that is about as nice as a truck stop restroom.

That's not to say this team isn't taking the right approach. They've got a nice group of young players growing together and I expect their offense to surprise some teams. If one of the goalies can become a consistent performer, maybe a trade deadline acquisition or two could get them to the playoffs.

Circle The Date - Jan 10-19. Dates against Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, Washington and Philly in a little over a week will really test the roster. If they have truly grown, they'll show it here. Otherwise, its "maybe next year" again.

13. Florida Panthers [++] – Few teams made more quality additions to their roster than the Panthers. With tons of cap room to work with and a GM ready to make some moves, the Panthers added players up and down their lineup. On opening night more than half their roster will be new players.

On the surface, every addition looks like an improvement. Unfortunately, Florida had a long way to go and even this improved roster will have a challenge making the playoffs. With a new coach added as well, it is hard to gauge where this team might be come April. I could envision them finishing anywhere from #6 to #15. It might be up to a mixed bag of goaltenders to hold the team together as coaches and players find their roles/style.

Circle The Date - Oct 29 at Buffalo - The last of a 7 of 10 road trip to start the season. A good time to gauge how well the team is playing together. Mar 17 vs Buffalo. After this game the Panthers finish with 9 of 12 on the road. Any hope of making the playoffs depends on being firmly in on Mar 17.

14. Ottawa Senators [-] – Right about now it has got to be tough to be a Senators fan. It wasn't that long ago that the team was in the finals and a perennial Cup contender. But age, poor drafts, poor moves and some bad luck have caught up with this team. Sure, Alfredsson and Spezza are still around but the rest of the roster is full of youngsters just finding their way at the NHL level. Although I think they are headed in the right direction, it is going to be more than a couple years before this team will get a sniff of the playoffs. If I've learned anything in the last few years of making these predictions, it is that the climb back to the top takes a lot longer than the fall to the bottom.

The Senators were smart to make some big moves at the trade deadline last season and would be well advised to try to do it again come spring. Alfredsson deserves to make the call on whether or not he wants to be traded but I'm guessing management would be happy to make it happen. But with his dwindling skills, the return won't be enough to turn things around quickly. The Senators desperately need Michalek and Gonchar to step up this season and give fans a little faith that ownership is spending money in the right places.

Circle The Dates: Feb 3 vs NYI - After playing 9 of 10 on the road, the Senators fate will probably be sealed. Check the roster and see how many players remain or are headed out of town.

Conference Notes:

I'm reasonably confident the top 7 will see the playoffs. The ordering, especially within the Atlantic Division, will depend a lot on health (Crosby, Pronger, Staahl) and the ability of coaches to manage new parts (Philly, Buffalo). Any of the top 7 teams is capable of winning the conference but it is Washington, Pittsburgh and Boston who are in the best position to do it if barring injury. I'm putting a lot of faith into prospect that Crosby will play a significant part of the season.

The real battle will be for the #8 spot yet again. It would be neat to think that a rising team such as Toronto, Islanders or Panthers could make it but I'm inclined to go with the team with the solid, proven goaltending.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Vancouver Canucks [nt] – Last year had to be a heartbreaker for this bunch. Unable to close out the series on home ice after such a successful regular season takes a toll on a team. Now, the journey begins again with basically the same team in the fold. Like Washington, the regular season will mean little to this squad and frankly, anything but a Cup Championship will be a disappointment.

There are more than a few Canuck fans and myself wondering if Luongo has the mental makeup to win the Cup. Fortunately, the Canucks have plenty of talent around him and almost all of it as at peak or on the upside. Even if Luongo collapses they have emerging backup ready to step in. With a division stocked with patsies, it is hard to see this team not winning the conference again. Does the weak division hurt them in the long run?

Circle The Dates - Oct 12/13 at Philly/Detroit. An early chance for the Canucks to show their team is ready to play and not experience a funk from their failure. Jun 15 - If the Canucks haven't made the final, will the city riot again?

2. Detroit Red Wings [nt] – The Red Wings have more than a few questions this year but age is NOT one of them. The key to a successful season is continuing to get secondary scoring from the likes of Cleary, Bertuzzi, Filpulla and Hudler while the younger players become an even larger part of the offense.

The loss of Rafalski could be a blessing in disquise. While they'll miss him most on the powerplay, he had become a turnover machine in recent years. His retirement will allow some younger players who are ready for more ice time to get a real chance to proof their worth. The additions of White and Commodore could be great bargains as both fit the Wings mold well, but there are a couple of youngsters who'll push them hard for ice time. Fortunately, Lidstrom is around for another season so the biggest transition won't happen for at least another year.

Osgood is no longer around as backup goalie but he was too injured to be dependable any more. He'll do just fine in a coaching role. Conklin should be a fine replacement.

For once, the Wings are not pressed against the cap. In fact, they have enough available to make a substantial move if good deal becomes available. Another top 6 forward would make this team scary again.

I don't know why, but I have a feeling Datsyuk is going to have a huge year. Not 50 goals but close to 40 with plenty of assists too.

Circle The Dates - Feb 8 Edmonton. No, it isn't the opponent. At this point the Wings will have finished a brutal stretch of 21 of 31 on the road (WTF!). Their record at this time should be a good indicator of whether they can win the division, conference or the Cup. It's also a time the Wings start looking for a deal if they don't quite measure up.

3. San Jose Sharks [nt] – It's tough to get a good read on this team because the moves they made could be get them the all elusive Cup or backfire, allowing a couple teams in the conference to leapfrog them. I tend to think the moves are a good thing. This team desperately need more scoring punch from their defense and Burns gives them that. Giving up Heatley to get Havlat might hurt in the regular season but should make them more effective come playoff time.

This is the other team that can only consider it a success if they get to finals. The difference is this team faces much tougher competition in their division than either the Capitals or Canucks. But survive that competition and it just might help them make the biggest step.

One problem I see with the roster is a lack of effective depth beyond the first two lines. Either the players they've got need to step it up or they'll have to make some more moves because the rest of the competition is much deeper.

Circle The Date - Feb 28 vs Philly - A 9 game round trip ends with a test again revamped, young Philly roster. A good measuring stick. Apr 5/7 - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.

4. Chicago Blackhawks [+] – When we last last left the Hawks, they had rallied from a 3-0 series deficit to force a 7th game against the Canucks in round one of the playoffs, only to fall in a tightly contested game 7. It wasn't excatly a banner year for this team but I don't think it was shocking based on how much they had to shuffle their roster after their championship the season before.

Now, the team is one year beyond that shuffle and one step closer to being a serious contender once again. While I expect their full recovery is still another year in the future, I do expect them to make another step in the right direction. Moving the overpaid Campbell will make moving forward MUCH easier but it'll come at the expense of some depth on defense. The team is stocked with superstars but currently lacks some of the depth found elsewhere in the Western Conference. However, that depth is coming as all the assets they acquired in trades will be NHL ready pretty soon.

A lot of the team's success depends on continued development of their young goalie, Crawford. If he sputters, it'll be up to the inexperienced Salak or the reclamation project, Emery, to save the team. While I think they'll come up short in their quest to win the division title, they won't let Detroit run away with it as easily as last year.

Circle The Dates - Jan 20 vs Florida - Afer this game the Blackhawks head on a 9 game road trip. They need to be in the thick of the race before then or making the playoffs may be tough. March 21/25 - home games against Vancouver and Nashville should test just how playoff ready the squad is.

5. Los Angeles Kings [++] – It is my opinion the Kings made the perfect move in the offseason. They've been patient allowing their young roster to develop and now they are ready to make a serious push in the Western Conference. Waiting on further young prospects to push them over the hump and the opportunity pass them by. It was the perfect time to morgage some future assets for proven veterans.

Add Richards to the mix is just what this team needed and at a price that won't cause them purge young talent in the future. If Gagne can be even half effective and their injured players stay healthy, this will be one dangerous team.

How far this team goes depends on how well the new players blend into the system and whether or not the goalies can perform as well in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. The next step for this team is to win a couple of playoff series. They appear ready to do that but that next step is a tough one for young team. Just ask the Caps.

Circle The Dates - Dec 13 - Dec 28 - A stretch featuring games against Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, San Jose and Chicago - A very good measuring stick against consistent playoff proven talent. Mar 16 at Anaheim - The end of 15 of 20 on the road and right near the trade deadline. Is the team ready for playoff level hockey?

6. Anaheim Ducks [+] – A team that looked like it was heading downward managed to claw its way to respectability on the back of one of the best lines in hockey (Ryan, Getzlaf, Perry). Fortuantely for them, Selanne decided to play another year because they desperately need more secondary scoring.

There is some young talent that is just starting to make an impact, especially on the back end. They'll need their development arch to continue upwards if they want in on the mix. But the real question mark is in goal. Hiller appears to be back after suffering through a long bout with vertigo. Ellis is an adequate backup but if Hiller falters the team will probably follow.

Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Det - Long road trip ends against a team the Ducks like to measure themselves against. How's Hiller health? Can Perry continue his hot streak? Feb 23 at Carolina - End of a tough 8 game road trip. If they are still in the hunt at this point, they are in great shape.

7. Nashville Predators [-] – One of the better feel good stories of last season ended with Predators finally winning a playoff series. No longer were they the butt of jokes but were now seen for what they really are, a superbly well-coached team with handful of very good players in a town that has embraced their underdog status.

The problem now becomes how to take the next step. The reality is it will be damn tough for a team on a meager budget to crack through against big spenders in the West like Vancouver, Detroit, Chicago and San Jose. With LA on the rise, Nashville may have to settle for a 6-8 spot and hoping the cards fall right in the playoffs.

Unfortunately the task gets harder when players start leaving for more money. Nashville has managed to keep their best players for at least another year but their depth has taken a blow with the departures of Ward, Franson, Sullivan, Goc, O'Brien and Belak. In steps more youth. At least they still have great coaching and great goaltending going for them and for that reason alone I won't count them out. As much as I think Detroit deserves first crack at moving to the Eastern Conference under realignment, it might be interesting to see how the Predators would do against that bunch.

Circle The Dates - Nov 12 vs Montreal - a road heavy opening schedule (10 of first 15) finally ends. Predators cannot afford to dig a deep whole against the talented conference. Mar 10 vs Detroit - Heading into the trade deadline this division rivalry could determine whether the Predators are buyers or sellers.

8. St. Louis Blues {+] – Once again the Blues enter the season with hopes of finally returning to the playoffs. If you recall, last year got off to a great start before a series of injuries seriously hampered the club. Management feels the squad is finally on the cusp so they went out and obtained some leadership to push them to the next level. Although I believe they might have jumped the gun by a year or two, there is little doubt this team is on the rise.

Arnott and Langenbrunner bring some grit and determination the roster has lacked. The trade with Colorado that got them Stewart and Shattenkirk should jump start the offense. As long as Halak can live up to his big contract, the team should be in the fight for a playoff spot. With ownership a bit in flux, it'll be interesting to see if they make any more moves if the team is in the hunt.

Circle The Dates - Nov 5 at Minn - Another team with a brutal stretch of road games to start the season (11 of 15). In a competitive Western Conference, St. Louis must emerge from this stretch close to .500 of risk being on the outside yet again. Mar 10 vs Columbus - I'm not sure who the Blues pissed off but after the trade deadline, not many home games for the Blues. Better have a playoff spot sewn up by this contest.

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9. Columbus Blue Jackets [++] – The Blue Jackets are in a precarious position. The team has suffered through mediocrity for far too long and the fans are starting to lose patience. At least owenership appears to get the picture and went out and finally made some moves to excite the fan base and hopefully push them into the playoffs.

Nash finally has some weapons around him courtesy of the trade between the Jackets and the Flyers. Jeff Carter arrives and instantly becomes part of a very strong first line (Nash, Carter, Umberger). Knowing they needed a good puck moving defensemen as well, Wisniewski was added as well. A recent contract extension to Umberger tells the fans they are committed to keeping the core intact.

The main problem remains the mystery in net. After getting off to a fast start at the NHL level, Mason has tumbled quick. With a competitive Western Conference it is imperitive he regains his form or the Jackets will be on the outside looking in yet again.

Circle The Dates - Jan 14 vs San Jose - This game concludes a tough stretch (Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose) which should be a good measuring stick to see if Columbus is significantly improved. Mar 26/28 - home and home with a Detroit team that usually has its way with the Jackets. Have things really changed?

10. Minnesota Wild [+] – Outside of the Flyers, the Wild probably made the boldesst moves in the offseason. The only problem with these bold moves is they sacrifice strength in one area (defense) to hopefully make the team stronger in another (offense). On a team lacking depth, these kind of moves often do nothing more than excite a fanbase. In this case, that was probably part of the plan.

That being said, Heatley and Setoguchi should be nice additions up front. Both are dangerous players and should allow Koivu to be even more effective. But Heatley has been on the decline for a couple years despite being relatively young and injury free. Their young coach Yao's biggest task will be finding a way to get more out of him.

To bring those players in, the Wild had to give up Burns and Havlat. While Havlat's loss can be filled by Heatley, Burns will be much harder to replace. Year after year teams go out in search of puck moving defensemen that are good defenders as well. The Wild may end up regretting this move. Once again it'll be up to the young coach to find a way to cobble together a decent defense out of a hodge podge of defenders. In a conference full of dynamic offenses, this will be key.

Circle The Dates - Nov 5 - A difficult set of opponents graces the Wild's early schedule (Detroit x3, Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Vancouver x2). If the Wild are competitive in these games, it'll set the tone for a good season. Feb 9 vs Vancouver - Back from a long stretch of road games (14 of 20) to play division rival. Are they still in the race?

11. Calgary Flames [-] – This squad keeps kidding itself. They refuse to accept that they are a marginal team at best and are seriously in need of rebuilding. Instead of accepting that fact and moving some assets for propsects/picks, they keep trying to bring in past-their-prime veterans in hopes giving their frenzied fanbase another taste of playoff hockey.

The team now lacks depth in just about every facet of the game. The have Iginla and Kiprusoff but both are are well past their prime. There is a little talent coming up through the ranks and if one of those two stars gets injured or tumbles, this team could easily drop to the bottom of the pack. The team reminds me of the Leafs of a decade ago, desperately trying to hang on to the past. It won't be long before provincial rival, Edmonton, makes them an after thought in the West.

Circle The Dates - Dec 10 vs Edmonton - With the Flames ready for a brutal road stretch (11 of 13) they get an opportunity to prove they are still kings of the province. Mar 13 vs San Jose - The trade deadline looms. Are the Flames willing to embrace the rebuild now?

12. Edmonton Oilers [++] – The climb up has been a long one for the Oilers and there are more than a few rungs left on the ladder. Although I don't expect the Oilers to get into the playoffs this year, I do expect them to crawl out of the cellar and pass a couple of teams.

The youth is coming together nicely and there is more in the pipeline. For the first time in years, the Oilers will probably send the top pick back to juniors for more seasoning. The addition of some veterans (Smyth, Belanger and Hordichuk) should help bring the kids along. I can almost understand the addition of "pylon" Sutton on D considering the lack of talent on the back end but signing Eager, especially to a multi-year deal, was plain silly.

The Oilers still have question marks in goal and would be well served to keep an eye on the waiver wire or trade market for a young goalie with some promise. Khabibulin isn't getting any younger and Dubnyk is questionable at best.

Circle The Dates - Jan 7 at Dallas - end of a 7 game road trip and about the halfway point of the season. Are the Oiler near .500? .400? Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?

13. Dallas Stars [-] – Losing Richards is a huge blow for a team that had it sights set on returning to the playoffs again. It leaves a huge hole in the lineup that may take years to fill. The Stars have brought in some decent talent to fill out the roster (Ryder, Fiddler, Dvorak) but these players are little more than filler for a team that desperately needs more 1st/2nd line talent.

A new coach, Gulutzan, takes over so it is a little difficult to imagine how he'll do with this less than average group. The defense appears sound but not dangerous and Thrasher fans can tell you how tough it is to rely on Lehtonen as your everyday starter in net. With ownership still in turmoil, spending some of that unused cap for improvements is out of the question.

Circle The Dates - Nov 19 vs San Jose - About 30 games in, see how the coach is doing, how Lehtonen is holding up and where the teams confidence is at. Mar 6 at Vancouver - end a Western Canada trip right before the trade deadline. Will the Stars unload more talent in hopes of restocking the roster?

14. Colorado Avalanche [-] – Just when it looked like the Avalanche were turning the corner and beginning the climb back to respecatability, the team made some trades that might set them back quite a bit. At least the team recognized they couldn't go any further with horrible talent in net. Not only did they manage to acquire Varlamov from Washington, they also signed Giguere as a free agent. But the price they paid for Varlamov (1st and 2nd rounder) is highly questionable. For a team working on a restricted budget and lacking depth, giving up picks can be suicide.

There is still some decent talent and a lot of speed but the lack of depth is scary. There is also a glaring lack of leadership on the roster. The team had better stay healthy or they'll quickly find the bottom of the pack.

Circle The Dates - Oct 26 at Calgary - End of 8 of 10 road games to start the season, tough for a young squad. If they can weather the storm, it'll build confidence the team could desperately use. Mar vs Pit - Many road games after this one before the trade deadline. Will the Avalanche be tempted to trade more assets again?

15. Phoenix Coyotes [--] – Every time it looks as though this team has its financial concerns under control, another twist in the story takes place. There's a real danger lying ahead for this team and the stress may finally get to the team.

In past seasons, the team has relied on strong team defense and very good goaltending to keep them in the playoff hunt. Now that their star goalie has headed for the greener (read $$$) pastures of Philadelphia, the team has a gaping whole. While Smith and LaBarbera are serviceable, they won't steal many games. For a team already on the boundary that could spell trouble.

Elsewhere the team has some talent but little stardom. The cast gets even thinner with the losses of Fiddler, Belanger, Jovanovki and Ebbet. Each of their replacements is a less skilled player. The only strong point that remains is their coaching staff. But if even they get the best out of this crew, I don't think they make the playoffs.

Dec 31 at Minnesota - The clock strikes midnight and the year ends with the Coyotes in the middle of an extended road trip. Is their season already done? Will they stay in Phoenix? Is anybody watching? Feb 13 vs Vancouver a brutal homestand against some of the best the NHL has to offer has ended. Has the Coyotes brief rise already ended?

Conference Note :

The top 5 are virtual locks to make the playoffs. The Canucks will likely cruise to the top on the weakness of the Northwest Division. San Jose and Detroit will face very stiff challenges on their way to a division title. I would have liked to pick Nashville higher but there we simply too many departures to justify it. The Central Division looks to be extremely competitive and Columbus's chances to make the playoffs may have taken a hit when Wiesnewski was suspened to start the season. Every point will count in what will likely be a very close race for #6-#13.

PLAYOFFS/CUP

It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.

CONFERENCE FINALS

EAST : Pittsburgh vs Washington

The league and network will be drooling over this magic matchup. The only way it happens though is if Crosby is playing. The Rangers could be a darkhorse if there defense can hold up and Lundqvuist isn't burnt out.

WEST : San Jose vs Detroit

There are a lot of quality teams in the West who could make it this far and health will likely be the determining factor in the playoff series. I think the additions the Wings have made will improve the team signficantly and Burns is the player that'll put the Sharks back in the conference finale.

FINALS : Pittsburgh over San Jose

San Jose makes the next step by beating the Wings in the playoffs for the third straight time (YUCK! I would prefer a more magical end to the Lidstom era). San Jose's depth finally gets exposed by Pittsburgh.

I'm going to try to comment each time on of the "Circle The Dates" passes. I promise those comments will be very brief. Then again, I thought this would be about a third of it's final size.

California Trip - Epilogue

Just in case you were wondering, the trip home to Georgia was uneventful and on time. The heat and humidity in Atlanta didn't take long to zap the last little bit of energy from us.

All in all I considered the trip a smashing success and I had a wonderful time. I'm pretty sure Crimson enjoyed it as well. While it is pretty easy to say Crimson enjoyed Venice Beach the best, it isn't as easy for me to pick my highlight. I'd probably have to go with the "journey". Although long and taxing at times, the sights along the way were well worth it. Everything from giraffes in San Diego, crazies on Venice Beach, and friends in San Francisco contributed to a great trip.

If I did it again, I wouldn't change much. Perhaps I'd cancel Santa Monica for a longer stay at Venice Beach. I might cancel the trip to Monterrey aquarium. Maybe add a day to San Francisco or LA to see a bit more. However, the reality is I couldn't have asked for a much better trip.

If you made it this far reading the blog, thank you. The words flowed pretty quick but it was a bit of work. Fortunately, it was a labor of love.

See you after my next journey.

California Trip - Day 12 - San Francisco Part 2

After a long day we needed the extra rest so I decided to let our last day in California set its own pace.

The first thing we were trying to do was get to Alcatraz. I thought that getting on a boat on standby would be near impossible when tickets had been sold out about 10 days in advance. However, we were able to get on the 11:30 boat despite arriving at 11:20. As a bonus, the weather was quite a bit nicer than when we were originally scheduled to go.



Crimson and I both liked the tour. The fact that the audio tour is narrated by former guards and inmates makes it even more interesting. When we'd seen everything we wanted to see, we were just in time to catch a boat back to the mainland.



We wanted to have lunch at In n Out Burger since I'd heard it was one of the best fast food restaurants without a location in Atlanta. However, first we stopped by Pier 39 and Fisherman's Wharf. Obviously Crimson was hungry or just didn't care because unlike Venice Beach she was in a hurry to get on with it.

In n Out Burger was good but not great although certainly one of our most reasonably priced meals on the trip. For dessert, it was of to Ghiradelli Square to load up any extra space we had in our travel bags with chocolate!

One more stop before an official end to our tourism. We (or I) had to see the Pacific Pinball Museum in Alamaeda. It's one of the best collections of pinball machines that are playable in the country. I promised Crimson to keep the visit relatively short and kept my word by staying only 90 minutes. We had fun playing a lot of games I've never played before. On this day, Crimson was the better player than me.

This night we stayed near the hotel as our flight left at 7AM the next morning. It took us awhile to find somewhere to eat but when we did we hit the jackpot. Big Joe's Cafe had great diner style food, huge portions and very reasonable prices.

Califronia Trip - Day 11 - Beyond San Francisco

Since I didn't have time to drive to Seattle or even Portland, I did want to see something a little beyond San Francisco. Today was that day. As usual, things started off cool and foggy.

The first stop was a walk across a section of the Golden Gate Bridge. If Crimson was scared, I couldn't tell because she was huddled up inside her coat trying to keep warm.



From there it was on to Point Bonita for more vistas. It turned out Crimson enjoyed walking around the old battery at Fort Barry. The haunting quality of the sight had her a bit on edge but she had fun climbing around and exploring.



We had lunch at Muir Beach overlook where the clouds surrounded us. From there it was up the coast seeking more beautiful spots among the twisting turns of the road. This journey took a good deal of time and patience and when we finally reached our final destination, Salt Point State Park, I thought we'd come for nothing. I couldn't see much of anything interesting from the road.

We parked and starting walking towards the coast. Here, we found the rock formations I had seen and Crimson had a good time climbing around on them. It had actually warmed up a bit and it was great to be out of the car for awhile before the long and twisty drive back to San Francisco.



We went to have dinner with John and Svengi despite me almost canceling due to exhaustion. I'm glad we went as we had a fabulous time with them. A late night but well worth it to have some home cooked food and good company.