Another round is complete. Really an odd round in that 3 of the 4 matchups saw one team race out to a 3-0 lead. I thought maybe one of the teams would overcome the 3-0 deficit but that scenario came to a screeching halt after a 4 OT marathon in Dallas. There was one dominating sweep, a couple of upsets but no major drama.Reviewing my picks from Round 1:
MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
RESULT - Philadelphia in 5
Good observation : "I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct." - Usually trusting my gut over my brain gets me into big trouble. Not this time.
Bad observation : "I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners." - Montreal never captured any significant momentum in the series and Philly just kept responding when called upon.
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
Result - Pittsburgh in 5
Good observation : "I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on." - Malkin scores 2 big goals in game 3 which essentially ices the series and Hossa gets 2 goals including the series clincher in OT in game 5. Lundqvist did well but not well enough to offense Pittsburgh's talent. With the exception of the following, just about about all my observations on this series were pretty good.
Bad observation : "I think this series has got the makings of a classic". - The Rangers blew a chance for this series to be a classic when the blew a 3-0 lead in game 1.
DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Detroit in 4
Good observation(s)
1. "If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick." - Samuelsson scores 2 in game 4 and the Wings sweep.
2. "Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast." - Can I have some jam with my toast?
3. "Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he is certain to face much more pressure." - He didn't play better and look what happened. Has a starting goalie ever been pulled 3 times in a 4 game series?
Bad observation: "Detroit in 6" - I should have had more confidence in what was truly a mismatch. Colorado had been playing over their heads for weeks. Once they faced some real competition they wilted.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Dallas in 5
Good observation: "San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars" - San Jose played inconsistent and dug themselves a hole which they couldn't overcome against a solid team.
Bad observation: "San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle" - Dallas can match up with anybody. Time and time again hardworking consistent play has beaten out top-talent in Stanley Cup playoff history.
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Winners in 3 of 4. Only the San Jose - Dallas contest played out much differently than I expected. But that series was pretty evenly matched and probably could have gone the other way had Dallas not captured the first two games in the Shark Tank.
A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :
Bet : 55 + 75 + 80 + 80 = 290
Return : 110 + 150 + 80 + 0 = 340
Profit : 50
Rate of return : 50 /290 = 17.2%
Playoffs
Bet : 820
Return : 1010
Profit : 190
Rate of return : 23.2%
Time to find a bookie. Screw the 401-K and 529. I'm putting everything on Thrashers to win the cup next year.
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