Denver Broncos Prediction

Here's brief and somewhat late view of my favorite team as they embark on a new season.

I'm not used to seeing a Denver team with so much youth, especially on the offensive line. In 30 years of being a fan, I can't rememer such a young group. At left tackle, a rookie, Ryan Clady gets the nod. At left tackle, a second year player is starting. A third year player is manning one of the guard positions. Between them they have less than a dozen starts. I actually believe it is a great thing but may take awhile for this line to gel and reach the high level of play it takes for the Broncos to succeed.


The defensive line is in almost the same position. Three were draft last year (Thomas, Moss, Crowder) and one was drafted the year before (Dumervil). Thomas and Dumervil are starters already and hopefully the other two aren't far behind. However, I'm more comfortable with the offensive line's potential. This unit must see improvement or the defense doesn't have a chance. They must find way to create pressure with only 4 and do a better job stopping the run.


I am very comfortable with the QB and WR position. Cutler and Marshall could both be Pro Bowlers this season provided they can both stay healthy and someone emerges to take some pressure of Marshall. Cutler is an extremely poised and intelligent QB and is among the best when forced to make throws on the run. With his diabetes now under control, I think he's ready for a breakout year. Marshall looked like a man among boys last season and despite some legal issues, including a one game suspension, he looks ready to take over where he left off last year. He may have to share some balls with Eddie Royal who looks like a great addition as a second round pick. It'll be great to see two young receivers develop with Cutler.


The linebacking corp has been retooled and should be better than last season but will they be good enough? Last year depth at safety had me concerned. Now I'm concerned about the depth a cornerback. Bailey is great and Bly is adequate but beyond them are some major question marks. I sure hope the younguns can contribute because Paymah doesn't fill me with confidence.


The running back situation has me scared. Still not sure they've got someone who can last a full season and gain the tough yardage. I'm high on the new fullback but I didn't think he'd be ready to start this soon. It'll interesting to see how they use Pittman. If Selvin can handle 20 carries a game, they'll be alright. I'll be looking forward to seeing 5th round draft pick Torian healthy by mid-season.


It is really odd seeing a kicker other than Elam take the field. I hope they've found another long time player and a punter but going with rookies at those positions makes me nervous. Lastly, they need to find a consistent threat at kick returner. I want teams to fear kicking the ball. We've gone far too long without one. Eddie Royal was actually drafted to fill this need.

Looking at the line up and the schedule I seeing the Broncos going 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Just too many young players and too much competition in the AFC West (San Diego) and AFC. They'll be in the fight for a wildcard until the end but come up a little bit short. If they can manage to start the season well, the could be a surprise contender with a weak schedule down the stretch. However, I not sold on the defense enough to think it'll happen. The offense has some dangerous weapons but until a defensive line is built to stop the run and rush the passer wins will be tough to come by.

It sounds odd to say this but I think week 1 is a must win game to have playoff hopes. Oakland games are usually tough and they have a defense that could cause the Broncos some trouble. Add their couple of hard-nose running backs and it wouldn't shock me if the Raiders win. For this initial contest, I'm picking the Broncos 23 - Raiders 16.

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Addendum

Although this was posted after the Raiders contest, all the content was created before that matchup. After seeing the team in action, I'd like to add the following:

Eddie Royal is the real deal. There is no wonder why this kid quickly climbed the charts in training camp. He made DeAngelo hall look like the rookie.

The offensive line did a fantastic job. This young group may be ready quicker than expected.

Cutler sure looked like a Pro Bowler. Extremely good job of finding receivers and putting the ball where no one but his receiver could catch it.

Defense had problems. Although a shutout through 3 quarters, I didn't like what I saw. More talented teams are going to be a problem.

The running game was good but not great. We expect great in Denver.

Shanahan is still a mastermind. His play calling for this game was imaginative and well thought out.

There's nothing better than seeing Greasy Al and a bunch of meth-head-prison-inmate Raider fans with a look of disgust.

I'm not changing any predictions based on a single game, especially against the Raiders, but this result coupled with a couple other AFC losses (San Diego, Indy, Brady, Jacksonville) certainly raised my hopes a bit.

NFL Predictions

I'm a couple days late but only one game has been played at time of posting and it doesn't affect my picks in the slightest.

When picking NFL seasons, I have two approaches. One is to analyze it to death looking at each teams additions and subtractions, their injury issues and predicting each individual game of the league's 5 month season. This approach takes a ton of time. Until this blog generates me cash flow or I'm retired, I don't see me doing it this way again any time soon. Instead you get my second approach. This one relies on gut instinct I've developed watching the NFL for 35 years.

Without further ado, here's the picks:

AFC West : San Diego Chargers - Simply too much talent for the rest of the division. Even if Merriman can't play the whole season there is still a ton of players on both sides of the ball. There are still question marks at WR and I'm not sold on Rivers as top-notch QB. But with two matchups each against KC and OAK and games against the relatively weak NFC South, they should coast. I think they'll get homefield throughout.

AFC Central : Pittsburgh Steelers - Lot of people picking Cleveland to finally rise to the top but I think that is still a year or two away. Steelers are much more consistent and have the hard nose defense it takes to win late in the year.

AFC South : Indianapolis Colts - Nope, this isn't the year Jacksonville overtakes Indy unless Manning is out for an extended period. Addai is just coming into his own and Peyton still has a bunch of weapons. Their defense is underrated and should be healthier / stronger than in the past.

AFC East : New England Patriots - Can we stop talking about Favre for one minute please. The Jets will be better but not good enough. Experience and team cohesion mean a lot in the NFL and the Patriots have a ton of it. Brady is key but the defense has bigger questions. Teams are going to try to send the house after Brady so they better be prepared. If the Pats had more competition in the division, I think we'd see a tumble.

AFC Wildcards : Cleveland, Tennessee - Biggest shocker may be that I'm leaving Jacksonville out of the mix. I have a ton of respect for Jeff Fischer and he's doing a good job retooling after a salary cap mess. Cleveland has the talent on offense but lacks punch on D.

NFC West : Seattle Seahawks - I wanted to pick Arizona but I got to see their first string offensive line get eaten alive by Bronco second stringers. Warner won't last the season at that rate and Leinhart isn't ready. The Seahawks win by default because the rest of the division is dreadful. Holmgren will go out with a division win but not much more.

NFC Central : Detroit Lions - My biggest surprise pick. The Packers take a step back with Rodgers under center and it is enough to lose the division. Minnesota doesn't have a bonafide QB or WRs capable of being a serious threat. They'll live and die by Adrian Peterson. Detroit has a ton of offensive weapons and just got better with Rudi Johnson in the backfield. Calvin Johnson is set to explode on the scene. Detroit's defense may be one of the best "unknown" groups.

NFC South : New Orlean Saints - I seem to pick the Panthers to win this division just about every year and I almost did it again. Then I remembered the Saints added yet another weapon to the offense, TE Shockey. That's enough to put them over the top despite a somewhat weak defense.

NFC East : Dallas Cowboys - Most talent in the NFC from top to bottom. Solid coaching and plenty of playmakers. The cream rises to the top in tough division. The Giants will be in the hunt but their loses on the DL will be felt. Philly, as always, is the big question mark. The need more contribution from the WRs before taking the next step.

NFC Wildcards : Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers - This is going to be a dogfight for these two spots. Give it to these two because they play in relatively weak divisions.

Playoffs

AFC Wildcard
Pittsburgh beats Cleveland
New England beats Tennessee

NFC Wildcard
Carolina beats Seattle
Detroit beats Arizona

AFC Divisional
Indianapolis beats New England
San Diego beats Pittsburgh

NFC Divisional
Dallas beats Carolina
Detroit beats New Orleans

AFC Championship
Indianapolis beats San Diego - once again Chargers fall short

NFC Championship
Dallas beats Detroit - homefield too much for Detroit to overcome

Super Bowl
Dallas beats Indianapolis - Manning has an off game and good guy Wade Philips finally gets his championship. Marion Barber is MVP.

Notice I left out any mention of the Denver Broncos. I'm saving that for the next post.

Appalacian Trail - Woody Gap to Gooch Gap Hike

Yesterday I set out on my longest hike yet. This one didn't come from a book but rather from crossing the trailhead multiple times during recent adventures. I did enough background research to make certain it was something I could handle and set out mid-morning to tackle it.

This particular hike was about 7.5 miles long there and back taking me close to 4 hours with a couple breaks. I started from a major intersection of the Appalachian Trail with Hwy 60 (Woody Gap) and headed West towards Gooch Gap. The trail started by following the ridgeline with only a couple gentle rises and falls. From there, the rises and falls got more significant but were mostly short so it wasn't overly difficult. A couple nice vistas along the way opened up to wide views of mountains to the South.

I saw close to a dozen hikers along the route, many of whom were doing multi day journeys. After 4 hours I was glad to be heading home. This afternoon I'm a little sore from the journey but prepared for more. In the future I hope to make more significant hikes as time permits.

Stone Temple Pilots - Concert Review

08/23/08

This is actually a two part review as it was my first journey to Atlanta's new Verizon Wireless Amphitheater @Encore Park. This particular venue is close to my house and is drawing some pretty big acts so I was interested to see/hear it in person.

The venue is comparable in size and structure to Lakewood Amphitheater (or whatever they are calling this week) on Atlanta's South side but any comparisons stop there. Verizon is so much better in almost every way.

To start with, traffic control and parking is handled very well on entrance. Even though we didn't arrive until about a half hour before show time and a half hour after the gates opened, we faced no more than a 5 minute wait getting in. Parking was organized with an over abundance of staff.

Ticket taking and concessions were just as organized. While I was more than a little disappointed that they insisted on making a huge "X" through my ticket at least there were plenty of people, concessions and bathrooms to take care of my needs. Waits were minimal throughout and there were multiple options for drinks around the grounds.

Since we had general admission in the orchestra pit, we were given armbands for ID. Unfortunately, these bands had ZERO purpose as we were always asked for our tickets at each checkpoint. It got to be a little ridiculous as the checkpoints were often just feet apart. But I prefer the extra checkpoints over having people who don't have the right tickets barging into my area.

The sound great and the setting quite good. All the seats are covered and some nice landscaping makes the grounds much more appealing than Lakewood. Two large video screens provide some extra viewing for people out on the spacious but organized general admission lawn.

The only other drawback to the site was the disorganization on exit. A little more traffic control would have gone a long way. Apparently all the staff was sent home fairly early. But because of location and road access, we still got out of there in a decent amount of time.

In the future I'll definitely return to this venue. For an outdoor setting only Chastain Park has it beat but not by much. It'll be interesting to see if as years go by whether they can maintain the high level and quality of staffing that make it an enjoyable experience.

On to the concert. Early on there was some concern the band might not show. The night before Stone Temple Pilots had failed to show in Tampa. The band blamed the weather but there was some who thought it was tension within the band.

Well, after two decent opening bands, STP did show but it was pretty obvious there was some tension on stage. While the performance was really good, some words and actions were exchanged between Scott Weiland and other members of the band.

Their set list included almost exclusively hits. I guess this was somewhat expected considering the band is soliciting requests for songs via the web site. All the songs sounded great but I would have preferred at least a sprinkling of less popular songs. I really don't like crowd participation as I'm there to hear the band, not the fans. But I took the good with the bad and there was plenty of good to go around. Sound was great and energy was good. Only the light show was pretty bland.

I don't think I'd put this up there with the last time I saw the band at the Tabernacle during their tour for the album "4" but it was certainly a concert well worth attending. Props must go out to friend, Matt who bought me the tickets as a birthday present!

Next up is a trip to New York to see Icelandic band, Sigor Ros.