Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Denver Broncos Prediction

Here's brief and somewhat late view of my favorite team as they embark on a new season.

I'm not used to seeing a Denver team with so much youth, especially on the offensive line. In 30 years of being a fan, I can't rememer such a young group. At left tackle, a rookie, Ryan Clady gets the nod. At left tackle, a second year player is starting. A third year player is manning one of the guard positions. Between them they have less than a dozen starts. I actually believe it is a great thing but may take awhile for this line to gel and reach the high level of play it takes for the Broncos to succeed.


The defensive line is in almost the same position. Three were draft last year (Thomas, Moss, Crowder) and one was drafted the year before (Dumervil). Thomas and Dumervil are starters already and hopefully the other two aren't far behind. However, I'm more comfortable with the offensive line's potential. This unit must see improvement or the defense doesn't have a chance. They must find way to create pressure with only 4 and do a better job stopping the run.


I am very comfortable with the QB and WR position. Cutler and Marshall could both be Pro Bowlers this season provided they can both stay healthy and someone emerges to take some pressure of Marshall. Cutler is an extremely poised and intelligent QB and is among the best when forced to make throws on the run. With his diabetes now under control, I think he's ready for a breakout year. Marshall looked like a man among boys last season and despite some legal issues, including a one game suspension, he looks ready to take over where he left off last year. He may have to share some balls with Eddie Royal who looks like a great addition as a second round pick. It'll be great to see two young receivers develop with Cutler.


The linebacking corp has been retooled and should be better than last season but will they be good enough? Last year depth at safety had me concerned. Now I'm concerned about the depth a cornerback. Bailey is great and Bly is adequate but beyond them are some major question marks. I sure hope the younguns can contribute because Paymah doesn't fill me with confidence.


The running back situation has me scared. Still not sure they've got someone who can last a full season and gain the tough yardage. I'm high on the new fullback but I didn't think he'd be ready to start this soon. It'll interesting to see how they use Pittman. If Selvin can handle 20 carries a game, they'll be alright. I'll be looking forward to seeing 5th round draft pick Torian healthy by mid-season.


It is really odd seeing a kicker other than Elam take the field. I hope they've found another long time player and a punter but going with rookies at those positions makes me nervous. Lastly, they need to find a consistent threat at kick returner. I want teams to fear kicking the ball. We've gone far too long without one. Eddie Royal was actually drafted to fill this need.

Looking at the line up and the schedule I seeing the Broncos going 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Just too many young players and too much competition in the AFC West (San Diego) and AFC. They'll be in the fight for a wildcard until the end but come up a little bit short. If they can manage to start the season well, the could be a surprise contender with a weak schedule down the stretch. However, I not sold on the defense enough to think it'll happen. The offense has some dangerous weapons but until a defensive line is built to stop the run and rush the passer wins will be tough to come by.

It sounds odd to say this but I think week 1 is a must win game to have playoff hopes. Oakland games are usually tough and they have a defense that could cause the Broncos some trouble. Add their couple of hard-nose running backs and it wouldn't shock me if the Raiders win. For this initial contest, I'm picking the Broncos 23 - Raiders 16.

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Addendum

Although this was posted after the Raiders contest, all the content was created before that matchup. After seeing the team in action, I'd like to add the following:

Eddie Royal is the real deal. There is no wonder why this kid quickly climbed the charts in training camp. He made DeAngelo hall look like the rookie.

The offensive line did a fantastic job. This young group may be ready quicker than expected.

Cutler sure looked like a Pro Bowler. Extremely good job of finding receivers and putting the ball where no one but his receiver could catch it.

Defense had problems. Although a shutout through 3 quarters, I didn't like what I saw. More talented teams are going to be a problem.

The running game was good but not great. We expect great in Denver.

Shanahan is still a mastermind. His play calling for this game was imaginative and well thought out.

There's nothing better than seeing Greasy Al and a bunch of meth-head-prison-inmate Raider fans with a look of disgust.

I'm not changing any predictions based on a single game, especially against the Raiders, but this result coupled with a couple other AFC losses (San Diego, Indy, Brady, Jacksonville) certainly raised my hopes a bit.

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