NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Finals

Three rounds done, only one to go. It seems like forever since the playoffs started. The beard is growing thick and the days are getting longer. Frankly, I'll be relieved when it is finally over.

The conference finals turned out much as I expected. I was a little surprised that Carolina couldn't muster a win but the better team prevailed in each series and showed why they met just last season for the right to host Lord Stanley's Cup.

Depth, powerplay and goaltending were the key in each conference final and experience was a major factor in the Wings victory over Chicago. I expect Chicago to learn from the experience and handle the situation a little better in coming seasons. No guarantee they'll get back next year but when they do, they'll be more prepared. Carolina's got a tougher task ahead as their roster is getting older and they'll need an influx of youth to compete against an younger and improving conference.

Detroit #1 - Penguins #4
Prediction : Detroit in 7

You might have noticed I wanted till less than 2 hours before puck drop to make my prediction. I had to hear the latest on the Wings injuries. Looks like Lidstrom (lower body injury) and Ericsson (appendicitis) will play but Datsyuk (foot) and Draper (groin) are out. Lidstrom is critical. Without him, it would be a different series. Every minute Chelios sees the ice, the chance of an opponents goal skyrockets. I'll rest much easier if he's in street clothes as he'll be in game 1. The Wings can overcome the loss of MVP candidate Datsyuk due to incredible depth up front. Hopefully he'll return before the series is over. Draper is great on faceoffs and penalty kill but there are other players to fill his role.

The Peguins will do everything they can to jump out quick. With the first 4 games in 6 nights, the schedule certainly favors the healthier Pens. They really need to win one of the first two in Detroit. Skill-wise I think the Pens are a notch below last year but mentally they should be more prepared. They must continue to play strong defense to stay in the series. Offensively they'll need to drive the net and be patient. The Wings are the best defense they've faced this postseason by leaps and bounds. The Wings just got done playing a very skilled team so they should be prepared to handle the likes of Malkin and Crosby.

Its cliche but goaltending and powerplay will be the key. Neither team has a goalie generally seen in the top of the league. However, both get the job done well. Osgood's experience puts him in a better position to recover from a poor outing. Not sure I can say the same for Fluery. Both teams have lethal powerplays so neither can afford to take dumb penalties.

I know a lot of talk surrounds the fact that the Penguins are "hungrier" this year and that could be the difference. I don't buy into that much. With the Cup so close for both teams, they'll both be giving it all they've got. I don't think the Hossa situation (leaving Penguins for Detroit in the offseason) is a big factor except for the fact that he's one more weapon the Wings have that the Pens don't. It might put a little personal pressure on Hossa but I have a feeling he'll come up big at some point.

I love what the Penguins did at the trade deadline adding Guerin and Kunitz. Their leadership and experience are part of the reason I picked them to get this far. However, I also like what the Wings did at the trade deadline (nothing). Their biggest additions have been guys who've been playing in the minors all year because there was no salary room for them to play in Detroit. Helm and Ericsson have made a huge impact. Leino and Abdelkater have filled vital roles. Honestly, I don't think the Wings could have made it this far without them.

A somewhat interesting thing to watch is who might rise to legendary status and earn the Conn Smythe Trophy if Detroit should win. If it's Pittsburgh, the trophy is almost certainly Crosby or Malkin's. Detroit has a lot of unusual names in the running including Cleary, Filpulla, Stuart and Osgood. Any one of those would have been a shocker at the start of the playoffs. Of course, Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Franzen are also contenders.

A final note. A came into the playoffs determined to pick against the Wings at some point. But the team turned a switch when the "real" season began and has really elevated its play. A couple fortunate events (San Jose and Vancouver losing) certainly didn't hurt. Now that they've made it this far, I might as well stick with them. Had Lidstrom been out for game 1 I would have gone with the Pens. I truly believe the series will be real close. Either way I expect it to be an entertaining affair. Two good rosters with a lot of skill and a lot of determination. Two good coaches. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked to see them meet up again next year.

Game On!

Crimson Middle School Graduation

Holy cow! Where did the time go? Nine years ago Crimson walked in the doors of Faith Lutheran and yesterday she left having graduated from 8th grade. A lot of friends were made, lessons were learned and bones were broken. Through it all Crimson persevered. Just a few months from now she'll start a new adventure in high school.

All the kids (I refuse to label them young adults just yet) were dressed up nice and came prepared to give personal speeches, each one impressive in its own way. Proud parents were in attendance and flashbulbs popped like paparazzi as the kids received their diplomas and walked off the stage. A night all will remember.

Here's a couple photos from that night as well as one from the first day of school. Can you tell which is which?

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Round 3

The conference final round is finally here but it took 3 or the 4 series going to game 7 to find the participants. None of the losers have anything to be ashamed of.

Vancouver getting beat out was the biggest surprise to me. Not so much that they lost to Chicago but the way they did it. All 4 Chicago victories were come from behind affairs. Vancouver had Chicago on the ropes in game 4 leading with less then 4 minutes to go. Losing that game in OT turned the series. Luongo had a very bad series after looking like world beater in round 1. Vancouver created the team around defense and it was this strength that let them down. With the Sedin twins heading towards free agency it'll be interesting to see how they move forward.

Carolina simply refuses to go away. Every time I'm ready to count them out, they rally. Coming through in OT in game 7 was cutting it close but I think the veterans had a lot to do with it. That and a goalie named Ward. Getting tough to pick against these guys. Boston had a great season and has a nice core in place to be in the thick of things for years to come.

The Pittsburgh - Washington series was a wild one with the superstars shining on the biggest stage. However, defense became secondary and continuing to play like that won't get Pittsburgh far. I'm pretty sure Washington has found its goalie of the future and they'll be back to try again next year.

The Anaheim - Detroit series was a simply amazing display of team defense on both sides. Anaheim had everything clicking but in the end succumbed to the depth of the Red Wings. This was undoubtedly the toughest series I've seen the Wings play in the last 15 years. So little ice to work with and a goaltender who didn't budge much when the puck made in on target.

Predicting these series is getting tougher and tougher. The conference finals are two nice matchups and anything can happen at this point.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh #4 vs Carolina #6
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 6

I picked the Penguins to come out of the East at the beginning and I'm sticking to my guns. Carolina is an opportunistic team and Pittsburgh smart to prevent the Canes from getting any opportunities to steal games. All the talent in Pittsburgh must find a way to break through Ward without allowing the Canes as much freedom as they allowed Washington. If this series comes down to goaltending Carolina/Ward has the edge. Carolina's best chance is to keep it low scoring, steal one of the first two. Falling behind early could be suicide.

Western Conference

Detroit #2 vs Chicago #4
Prediction : Detroit in 6

An original 6 matchup. First time since 1995 these teams meet up in Conference finals. Much will be made of the youth vs experience. The same sort of speak that was used last year in the finals where Deroits veterans dispatch of the Penguins with relative ease. Chicago is a feisty bunch and I don't expect them to go easy. But after playing the Ducks the ice is going to feel twice as big (in a good way) to these Wings. The Wings can play a up tempo game with the Hawks if they'd like but I expect they'll try to be more methodical. Detroits strong defense will be the difference. Khabibulin has never been a big problem for the Wings. Here's hoping this isn't the first time. Osgood has look very strong in the playoffs and put the dreadful regular season well behind him.

In all honesty, I was planning to pick against the Wings in this round. But then I thought it would be Vancouver or San Jose at the other end of the ice. I probably would have picked against the Wings in the last round had I known Rafalski was out for the first 5 games. Now, I can't do it, I think this is a bit of mismatch. The opponents just seem to lining up nicely for the Wings. Plus, they've got a couple of rookies that are playing beyond their experience and the defense is finally showing consistency.

The one thing that scares me is the penalty kill. Never could put a finger on why it was bad all season. It's been just as bad in the playoffs. A lot of it I think is dumb luck. It had better improve because the Blackhawks can take advantage of it. I think its the only way the Chicago boys steal the series.