Saturday, May 16, 2009

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Round 3

The conference final round is finally here but it took 3 or the 4 series going to game 7 to find the participants. None of the losers have anything to be ashamed of.

Vancouver getting beat out was the biggest surprise to me. Not so much that they lost to Chicago but the way they did it. All 4 Chicago victories were come from behind affairs. Vancouver had Chicago on the ropes in game 4 leading with less then 4 minutes to go. Losing that game in OT turned the series. Luongo had a very bad series after looking like world beater in round 1. Vancouver created the team around defense and it was this strength that let them down. With the Sedin twins heading towards free agency it'll be interesting to see how they move forward.

Carolina simply refuses to go away. Every time I'm ready to count them out, they rally. Coming through in OT in game 7 was cutting it close but I think the veterans had a lot to do with it. That and a goalie named Ward. Getting tough to pick against these guys. Boston had a great season and has a nice core in place to be in the thick of things for years to come.

The Pittsburgh - Washington series was a wild one with the superstars shining on the biggest stage. However, defense became secondary and continuing to play like that won't get Pittsburgh far. I'm pretty sure Washington has found its goalie of the future and they'll be back to try again next year.

The Anaheim - Detroit series was a simply amazing display of team defense on both sides. Anaheim had everything clicking but in the end succumbed to the depth of the Red Wings. This was undoubtedly the toughest series I've seen the Wings play in the last 15 years. So little ice to work with and a goaltender who didn't budge much when the puck made in on target.

Predicting these series is getting tougher and tougher. The conference finals are two nice matchups and anything can happen at this point.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh #4 vs Carolina #6
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 6

I picked the Penguins to come out of the East at the beginning and I'm sticking to my guns. Carolina is an opportunistic team and Pittsburgh smart to prevent the Canes from getting any opportunities to steal games. All the talent in Pittsburgh must find a way to break through Ward without allowing the Canes as much freedom as they allowed Washington. If this series comes down to goaltending Carolina/Ward has the edge. Carolina's best chance is to keep it low scoring, steal one of the first two. Falling behind early could be suicide.

Western Conference

Detroit #2 vs Chicago #4
Prediction : Detroit in 6

An original 6 matchup. First time since 1995 these teams meet up in Conference finals. Much will be made of the youth vs experience. The same sort of speak that was used last year in the finals where Deroits veterans dispatch of the Penguins with relative ease. Chicago is a feisty bunch and I don't expect them to go easy. But after playing the Ducks the ice is going to feel twice as big (in a good way) to these Wings. The Wings can play a up tempo game with the Hawks if they'd like but I expect they'll try to be more methodical. Detroits strong defense will be the difference. Khabibulin has never been a big problem for the Wings. Here's hoping this isn't the first time. Osgood has look very strong in the playoffs and put the dreadful regular season well behind him.

In all honesty, I was planning to pick against the Wings in this round. But then I thought it would be Vancouver or San Jose at the other end of the ice. I probably would have picked against the Wings in the last round had I known Rafalski was out for the first 5 games. Now, I can't do it, I think this is a bit of mismatch. The opponents just seem to lining up nicely for the Wings. Plus, they've got a couple of rookies that are playing beyond their experience and the defense is finally showing consistency.

The one thing that scares me is the penalty kill. Never could put a finger on why it was bad all season. It's been just as bad in the playoffs. A lot of it I think is dumb luck. It had better improve because the Blackhawks can take advantage of it. I think its the only way the Chicago boys steal the series.

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