"The first game back from an extended road trip is always difficult".
I've heard it many times before, specifically in regards to the NHL. There are numerous theories as to why this happens. Some say it is the added responsibilities that await a player when arriving home. Some say that the road trips have very structured schedules and players return to their own schedules when arriving home. Finally, the added pressure of playing in front of the home crowd for the first time in awhile takes its toll. It is probably the combination of these factors. Right before the puck dropped, I turned to my daughter and warned her about this. 60 minutes of hockey later I looked prophetic.
As usual, we arrived early for this game. Skipping the Ticketmaster fees we purchased tickets at the box office. Knowing it was a matchup between Kovy and Ovie, we picked some seats down low, a couple rows off the ice in the corner behind the goal. Considering the Thrashers hot start and the competition, I was hoping for a little bit more buzz in the arena. Considering the Thrashers hadn't played at home in a couple weeks, it was a mid-week game and football season is still in full force, I guess it wasn't too surprising it was pretty tepid. I'm guessing there were around 12,000 in attendance. For once it was the upper arena that looked empty as the corporate seats were much fuller than usual.
The Thrashers didn't get off to a good start. An early poor line change resulted in an odd-man rush that the Capitals immediately turned into a 1-0 lead. The Thrashers answered quickly on a power play when a faceoff win resulted in an Afinogenov goal to tie the contest. Unfortunately, another turnover put the Caps back on top less than 4 minutes later. Literally seconds later it looked like the Capitals had taken a 3-1 lead but the Thrashers caught a break when it was ruled that Knuble kicked the puck in the net. The Thrashers caught a little life after that and Kovalchuk found some space and a loose puck in front of the net to tie the contest at 2-2 after a period. Both teams looked rather sloppy and goaltending was sub par. It looked like we were in for a long night. But at least the teams were tied after the first period.
The second period was a disaster, with Thrashers goalie, Pavelec, the main culprit. A soft "shot" FROM 180 FEET (that's the defensive faceoff dot) caught Pavelec by surprise when it bounced a bit in front of him. He wasn't ready and out of position and the puck ended up in the net. One of the worst, if not the worst, goals I've ever seen. Knowing the kid is young and one of the hopes for the future, I didn't let him have it despite the fact that he was only a few feet away. The other fans weren't quite so gracious. Just over a minute later, a loose puck in front of the Thrashers goal couldn't be corralled by his teammates and the puck was tapped passed Pavelec for an easy goal and the Caps were up 4-2. Pavelec looked uncomfortable. I begged and pleaded for Anderson to pull him immediately but apparently the coach wasn't interested in my opinions. When the Capitals scored again 14 seconds later, it took a microsecond for Anderson to wave Hedberg in to replace the shattered Pavelec. Remember that 180 foot goal AND the delayed decision by Anderson, it'll play a role before this is all said and done. Hedberg came in a played strong and seem to settle the team in front of him. But the damage was done and the Thrashers left the period trailing 5-2.
All we could hope for at this point was for the Thrashers to claw their way back into the contest one goal at a time. Just when a Thrashers penalty looked like an opportunity for the Capitals to seal the deal, Bogosian got the puck and sped down the right side right towards us. He then blistered a shot (this kid has an amazing wrist shot) passed Varlamov to cut the lead to 5-3. The Caps goalie wasn't exactly at the top of his game either. The Thrashers and Caps would trade opportunities for the next several minutes with me just hoping the Thrashers could get one more to make the last minutes exciting. There were a bunch of penalties called down the stretch and with the goalie pulled for another extra attacker, Kovalchuk made the most of it by cutting the lead to 1 with 39 seconds left. It was high drama time!
Ovechkin took a very foolish penalty much to the delight of the crowd including yours truly. Off to the box for the chicken to watch helplessly as his team tried desperately to hold on for the win. With 6 attackers to Washington's 3, the Thrashers had at least 3 good chances to tie the game. It just didn't happen as the last attempt went over the shoulder of Varlamov and above the crossbar as the last seconds ticked off.
The Thrashers lose by a goal. Was it the goal from 180 FEET? Was it the additional goal allowed by Pavelec after Anderson should have pulled him? Was it the turnovers in the first period? Regardless it wasn't a well played game, undoubtedly the worst by the Thrashers so far in this young season.
It's pretty obvious who my goats are for this game, Pavelec and Anderson. I also have to question the logic of playing Antropov, Kovalchuk and Afinogenov on the same line. While they played a part in both goals scored in the first, they were also on ice for both goals against. There just isn't enough defensive responsibility in that group. While I'm certain this move was designed to get the 2nd line scoring, I'm a lot more comfortable with Little on the 1st. Perhaps trying Kane on the first line might be a better choice. The kid does have pretty good defensive positioning. There is a reason he is getting some penalty killing time.
There were some positives to take away from this contest. First and foremost, the Thrashers shut down Ovechkin. He waa held off the scoresheet and managed a meager 4 shots mostly from bad angles. After years of watching this guys skate circles around the Thrashers and the rest of the league, this was a welcome sight. His Russian counterpart, Kovalchuk, was the best Thrasher on the ice. I'm shocked Afinogenov got 2nd star above him. Kovalchuk kept creating great scoring chances with his skates and his stick. Props also go out to Hedberg who came in and did exactly what he needed to do, not allowing the Caps another goal so his team had an opportunity to battle back. Hit of the night belonged to Evander Kane who plastered a Capitals face into the boards feet in front of me. Too bad an official made a horrible call and ruled it boarding. We were fortunate on this night that a majority of the action took place right in front of us.
From here it doesn't get any easier. The Sharks prolific offense comes to town on Saturday and the Thrashers need to regain their winning ways to avoid falling into a tailspin. They need to refocus and get back to playing a full 60 minute contest. It'll be interesting to see who is in net. I suspect and expect Hedberg. He's earned the right to another start. Pavelec should be back in net soon to keep his confidence up but the Thrashers need to go with the hottest hand because every point is going to be important.
Finally some not so pertinent observations:
- To the 50+ year old lady wearing 2 pounds of makeup, a short skirt and heels to a hockey game. Some things are not better in person. Please stay home and watch it on TV.
- To the parking lot guys once again trying to charge $8 instead of the $3 that was routine last year. Keep it up and I'll use MARTA more. I like riding with the homies.
- To Ticketmaster. So long bitches. I can purchase tickets at the box office and not pay one dollar of fees. If I had purchased the same tickets online for yesterdays game, I'd have almost $20 in fees. What does that $20 get me?
- To Thrashers/arena management that think a photographer needs to harass me every 30 feet for a photo "for the Thrashers". Please fire 3/4 of that staff and use the proceeds to get rid of the other annoying group, the 50/50 raffle pendlers. I get less panhandling outside on Marietta Street.
- I like boobs just as much as the next guy but the skimpy outfits you make the ice girls squeeze into are pretty embarassing. I've seen less nipple on a half-time Super Bowl show.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
Flat Creek Loop Hike
It had been far too long since my last hike. With cooler weather and a relatively free weekend, I no longer had any excuses. I headed to the Aska Area Trails in the Chattahoochee National Forest to find some peace and quiet while getting a good workout.
Despite warnings about having to share the trail with bikers, I only saw one group who headed out immediately in front of me. After that I saw about 6 other hikers on the relatively quiet trail. There wasn't a lot to see on this particular hike and it wasn't particularly challenging but the 5.5 mile distance with a couple moderate climbs was perfect for this particular day.
This was easily the wettest hike I've done. That wasn't much of a surprise given the amount of rain we've had over the summer or the rain that hit the area the day before. Although it made for some somewhat muddy spots and one semi-risky creek crossing, it wasn't a big deal. However, the low dew point and high humidity made picture taking pretty tough as the lens kept getting fogged over so no pictures this time.
It took me a little over two hours to complete the hike. I was moving at a fast clip though because I was racing to get home to watch the Broncos play.
Overall, well worth the time. My next couple weekends are busy but I hope to hit the trail again soon. I'm ready for something more challenging.
A last note. Apparently everyone headed to the Jasper and Blue Ridge areas this weekend to get apples and pumpkins. All the roadside places were packed with people. One even created a 10 minute traffic jam.
Music for this hike:
Ulrich Schnauss - Far Away Trains Passing By
The Dixie Dregs - Bring 'Em Back Alive
Despite warnings about having to share the trail with bikers, I only saw one group who headed out immediately in front of me. After that I saw about 6 other hikers on the relatively quiet trail. There wasn't a lot to see on this particular hike and it wasn't particularly challenging but the 5.5 mile distance with a couple moderate climbs was perfect for this particular day.
This was easily the wettest hike I've done. That wasn't much of a surprise given the amount of rain we've had over the summer or the rain that hit the area the day before. Although it made for some somewhat muddy spots and one semi-risky creek crossing, it wasn't a big deal. However, the low dew point and high humidity made picture taking pretty tough as the lens kept getting fogged over so no pictures this time.
It took me a little over two hours to complete the hike. I was moving at a fast clip though because I was racing to get home to watch the Broncos play.
Overall, well worth the time. My next couple weekends are busy but I hope to hit the trail again soon. I'm ready for something more challenging.
A last note. Apparently everyone headed to the Jasper and Blue Ridge areas this weekend to get apples and pumpkins. All the roadside places were packed with people. One even created a 10 minute traffic jam.
Music for this hike:
Ulrich Schnauss - Far Away Trains Passing By
The Dixie Dregs - Bring 'Em Back Alive
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Thrashers Game Report - 10/03/09
Atlanta 6 - Tampa Bay 3
A new season has finally arrived. How great it was to see the arena buzzing with people well before the game started. There were a lot of changes to the roster in the offseason and this was everyone's first opportunity to see all those players on ice in regular season action.
The arena wasn't sold out but about 80% capacity. A nice energy greeted the Thrashers as they took to the ice and it helped fire up the team for their first test. Almost immediately, the Thrashers took charge. Quicker to the puck than the Lightning and more aggressive once they got it, they controlled the puck early. However, their passes were a bit off the mark. That all changed 8 minutes in when Kaptain Kovy tallied the first goal of the season. New acquisition Pavel Kubina got his first point as a Thrasher. About 3 minutes later, Salmela, a defenseman playing aggressive on the offensive end, reap rewards by burying the biscuit and increasing the lead to 2-0. The Thrashers headed to the lockerroom to thunderous applause.
The second period was more of the same. This time defenseman Zach Bogosian notched his first of the season when he went aggressively towards the net. It was clear that coach Andersson's style was on display. I frequently saw defensemen taking advantage of offensive opportunities and forwards doing a good job of covering up for those defensive rushes. Next up it was the rookie Kane with some great speed taking the puck to the Tampa net. He may have been denied his first NHL goal but not his first point as Peverly buried the rebound making it 4-0. Tampa Bay responded by starting a fight but Thorburn put his newly honed boxing skills to good work against Konopka. The crowd loved it.
The 4-0 lead was short-lived as the tiny Martin St. Louis got a tip-in goal from in front of Pavelec on point blast from rookie Victor Hedman. At this point the Lightning grabbed a bit of momentum and I was just hoping they could escape the period with a 4-1 lead. When Kovy took an ill-advised penalty, that got tough, and Tampa Bay cut the lead to 2 as St. Louis scored again. Fortunately, the period was over.
The third period started poorly for the Thrashers. Their worst defensive play of the night kept the puck in their zone far too long. Less than two minutes in the Lightning had scored again and what was once a 4-0 lead was suddenly 4-3. You could sense the nervousness in the arena. The fans had been down this road one too many times before.
Now it was the Thrasher's turn to pick a fight. This time it was Boulton exchanging blows with Fedoruk. The fight seemed to turn the tide for the Thrashers as they calmed back down and started taking control of the game once again. The good play paid off in a power play goal by Peverly and another goal by Kovalchuk. The crowd was relaxed and loud once again and spent the last 5 minutes hoping Kovalchuk could get the hat trick. Instead, he'd have to settle for a 3 point night and a number one star. Peverly got the second star and Pavelec the third.
Some observations:
- I was surprised to see Pavelec start in net instead of Hedberg. He played very well. I couldn't fault him for any of the 3 goals. There were a couple times he'd get out of position and not get back quick enough. He benefited from generally strong defensive play.
- Nice to see Kovy off to a fast start. A notoriously slow starter, I'm hoping he carries this through all the way to seasons end. He did take a couple poor penalties though. Still needs to know when to let the opponent take the penalty and not respond to the cheap shot.
- Bogosian, sporting the assistant's "A" picked up right where he left off. He's already getting tons of minutes and making a significant impact on the ice. He's paired with Enstrom while Kubina is paired with Hainsey.
- Popovic and Salmela played very well as the third D pairing this night. It'll be interesting to see how Andersson works Valabik and Schubert (just added) onto the ice.
- Kane look a little nervous at first but showed why he was drafted #4 overall. He's strong with the puck, has great speed and has a lot of hockey sense. He'll need to keep working hard to stay at the NHL level after his 9 game "tryout".
- Nice to see Peverly pick up where he left off. If he can continue to put up points from the 3rd line, the Thrashers are in nice shape.
- Apparently the "Believe in Blueland" has been replaced by "The Hockey Way". Just when I thought the marketing team could do no worse they somehow managed to match their previous effort. Blech!
- It's unfortunate the Thrashers don't have another home contest for almost 3 weeks. Any fan momentum built up by this win will almost certainly be gone. I'm hoping they can muster 5 points out of 10 of this five game road trip. Then it's back home for a game against the Capitals. I should be there to report once again.
A new season has finally arrived. How great it was to see the arena buzzing with people well before the game started. There were a lot of changes to the roster in the offseason and this was everyone's first opportunity to see all those players on ice in regular season action.
The arena wasn't sold out but about 80% capacity. A nice energy greeted the Thrashers as they took to the ice and it helped fire up the team for their first test. Almost immediately, the Thrashers took charge. Quicker to the puck than the Lightning and more aggressive once they got it, they controlled the puck early. However, their passes were a bit off the mark. That all changed 8 minutes in when Kaptain Kovy tallied the first goal of the season. New acquisition Pavel Kubina got his first point as a Thrasher. About 3 minutes later, Salmela, a defenseman playing aggressive on the offensive end, reap rewards by burying the biscuit and increasing the lead to 2-0. The Thrashers headed to the lockerroom to thunderous applause.
The second period was more of the same. This time defenseman Zach Bogosian notched his first of the season when he went aggressively towards the net. It was clear that coach Andersson's style was on display. I frequently saw defensemen taking advantage of offensive opportunities and forwards doing a good job of covering up for those defensive rushes. Next up it was the rookie Kane with some great speed taking the puck to the Tampa net. He may have been denied his first NHL goal but not his first point as Peverly buried the rebound making it 4-0. Tampa Bay responded by starting a fight but Thorburn put his newly honed boxing skills to good work against Konopka. The crowd loved it.
The 4-0 lead was short-lived as the tiny Martin St. Louis got a tip-in goal from in front of Pavelec on point blast from rookie Victor Hedman. At this point the Lightning grabbed a bit of momentum and I was just hoping they could escape the period with a 4-1 lead. When Kovy took an ill-advised penalty, that got tough, and Tampa Bay cut the lead to 2 as St. Louis scored again. Fortunately, the period was over.
The third period started poorly for the Thrashers. Their worst defensive play of the night kept the puck in their zone far too long. Less than two minutes in the Lightning had scored again and what was once a 4-0 lead was suddenly 4-3. You could sense the nervousness in the arena. The fans had been down this road one too many times before.
Now it was the Thrasher's turn to pick a fight. This time it was Boulton exchanging blows with Fedoruk. The fight seemed to turn the tide for the Thrashers as they calmed back down and started taking control of the game once again. The good play paid off in a power play goal by Peverly and another goal by Kovalchuk. The crowd was relaxed and loud once again and spent the last 5 minutes hoping Kovalchuk could get the hat trick. Instead, he'd have to settle for a 3 point night and a number one star. Peverly got the second star and Pavelec the third.
Some observations:
- I was surprised to see Pavelec start in net instead of Hedberg. He played very well. I couldn't fault him for any of the 3 goals. There were a couple times he'd get out of position and not get back quick enough. He benefited from generally strong defensive play.
- Nice to see Kovy off to a fast start. A notoriously slow starter, I'm hoping he carries this through all the way to seasons end. He did take a couple poor penalties though. Still needs to know when to let the opponent take the penalty and not respond to the cheap shot.
- Bogosian, sporting the assistant's "A" picked up right where he left off. He's already getting tons of minutes and making a significant impact on the ice. He's paired with Enstrom while Kubina is paired with Hainsey.
- Popovic and Salmela played very well as the third D pairing this night. It'll be interesting to see how Andersson works Valabik and Schubert (just added) onto the ice.
- Kane look a little nervous at first but showed why he was drafted #4 overall. He's strong with the puck, has great speed and has a lot of hockey sense. He'll need to keep working hard to stay at the NHL level after his 9 game "tryout".
- Nice to see Peverly pick up where he left off. If he can continue to put up points from the 3rd line, the Thrashers are in nice shape.
- Apparently the "Believe in Blueland" has been replaced by "The Hockey Way". Just when I thought the marketing team could do no worse they somehow managed to match their previous effort. Blech!
- It's unfortunate the Thrashers don't have another home contest for almost 3 weeks. Any fan momentum built up by this win will almost certainly be gone. I'm hoping they can muster 5 points out of 10 of this five game road trip. Then it's back home for a game against the Capitals. I should be there to report once again.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
NHL Predictions
The journey begins again tonight. All 30 teams start the season 0-0 with the same dream of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup sometime in June. For some, just getting to the playoffs would be a major accomplishment. For others, failing to reach the finals will be a failure.
Once again I put on my thinking cap in an attempt to predict where each of the teams will finish. The are so many variables involved that I feel pretty successful with even a 50% success rate. For the first time I'll give a team "trend" rating indicating the direction I think a team is heading compared to last season.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston - TRENDING UP - A well balanced roster with strengths in all units. Last season's playoff failures may be just the lesson they needed to reach the next level. This team does need strong leadership to emerge but I believe those pieces are in place.
2. Washington - TRENDING SAME - There is no denying the offensive firepower but there remains questions on defense. It'll be interesting to see who carries the load in goal. The loss Federov and Kozlov leaves a leadership void. Their 2nd place finish will be result of beating up on weak SE division.
3. Philadelphia - TRENDING UP - Offense should continue to be strength of this team and defense will determine just how far they go. Addition of Pronger should make defense stronger and powerplay more deadly. Emery had better play well or the team will need to look to make trade.
4. Pittsburgh - TRENDING SAME - When you win the cup, trending same is a good thing. But like the Wings they have played a ton of hockey in the last couple seasons and now sport a giant target on their backs. With the rest of the division bulking up to come at them physically, I don't see a repeat.
5. New Jersey - TRENDING DOWN - I'm not about to count them out again. Even without Broduer they somehow captured the division title last year. Eventually their lack of star power and Broduer's age will catch up with them but strong coaching and great management always seem to keep them in the hunt.
NOTE : There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West. This unbalance won't last much longer though as I see a bunch of these teams on the rise. The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week.
6. Montreal - TRENDING SAME - A retooled team with a ton of question marks. The difference between getting this seed and missing the playoffs could be a couple of points. The new team must come together quick and find consistent goaltending.
7. Atlanta - TRENDING UP - I'm going out on a limb here. When I look at the rest of the competition for the lower spots, I don't see why this team cannot compete. The scored plenty last year and should have more firepower with the addition of Antropov and Kubina. Their top 4 defensemen are the best in team history. Biggest question marks surround goaltending. Someone must emerge as a consistent backstopper or the team is doomed again. As much as it pains me to discuss, the Kovalchuk issue needs to be resolved quickly. The only way that happens is if the team starts strong. A tough task with many road tilts to start the season.
8. Carolina - TRENDING DOWN - Always a tough team to pick. The seem to alternate between really good years and really poor years so I figure this one is a down year. Veteran leadership can carry them only so far. At some point they need to develop some youth.
9. New York Rangers - TRENDING DOWN - All hope rests on the health on Gaborik. If he can't play 65+ games, they won't have a chance. The defense appears weaker and Drury just isn't cutting it up front. While unloading Gomez's contract was a good thing, at least he produced from time to time. Too much pressure on King Henrik.
10. Ottawa - TRENDING SAME - In the long run I think they'll be better for ridding themselves of Heatley. However, it'll take some time to recover. LeClaire in net should be a welcome change for a team used to inconsistency in goal.
11. Buffalo - TRENDING SAME - Ryan Miller will keep the team competitive and Lindy Ruff will generally get the most out of his players. Unfortunately there isn't a lot of upside skill left in this bunch. They should still be in the thick of the race and a trade deadline deal could change their fate.
12. Tampa Bay - TRENDING UP - Nice infusion of young talent and finally getting the message that defense needs to improve. It'll take some time for the pieces to come together but it shouldn't be too far off. Do they have the right coach in place to build the team?
13. Toronto - TRENDING UP - Burke will turn this team around. Expectations are always way too high in Toronto and the pressure to win is insane. Look for at least one more year of rebuilding before the team becomes a real threat.
14. Florida - TRENDING DOWN - The loss of Bouwmeester is huge. They don't have anyone to fill those skates or the minutes. Excellent coaching and some good talent up front can only carry them so far. If they stick to the plan they'll be a threat in years to come but they'll probably fall down a bit before that time.
15. New York Islanders - TRENDING UP - Tavarres is the real deal but he cannot do it alone. The simply isn't enough skill on this team to compete night in and night out. They might actually get a new arena built before this team makes the playoffs. Good news is they'll be in line for a top pick once again. That 15 year contract for DiPietro is looking worse by the day.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Jose - TRENDING SAME - Heatley should make this team even more dangerous but their real success will be measured by whether or not they make the Cup finals. Anything less is a total failure. Outside the Heatley trade the didn't tinker much with the lineup and that should allow them to fight for the President's Trophy. They'll face more pressure from Anaheim in their division and from Detroit, Calgary and Chicago within the conference.
2. Calgary - TRENDING SAME - They'll take full advantage of a relatively weak division. The addition of Bouwmeester will be big but they need to find some consistent secondary scoring. If they can find a way to get Kiprosoff some more rest they'll be more dangerous come playoff time.
3. Detroit - TRENDING DOWN - Sorry, I'm not ready to turn this division over to the Blackhawks just yet. I see this as a retooling, not rebuilding, year in Detroit and that will probably mean a less dominant team in the short run. However, they were pretty poor on defense, and especially the penalty kill last year and I cannot imagine that area won't improve. There is a ton of young talent ready to take the next step so the downward trend will be VERY short. Goaltending will dictate just how far this team can go. I like the addition of Eaves and Bertuzzi but Williams has a lot to prove to me. Honestly, I can't wait to see how the young kids (Abdelkader, Leino, Helm, Ericcson and Howard) perform.
4. Chicago - TRENDING SAME - All the rage with the "experts", I expect they are a tad early. Last year Chicago overachieved and this year they'll simply achieve. Injuries and offseason legal issues don't exactly breed confidence (who harasses a cabbie over $0.40?). I consider the Hossa for Havlat exchange a bit of a wash (although Hossa is better defensively) but the failure to re-sign Khabibulin is a big mistake. I'm not sold that Huet can have the same success and their backups have almost no experience. If what I read about their cap issues is true, Chicago's rise could be a very short one.
5. Vancounver - TRENDING SAME - Every year they desperately try to improve this team and every year it seems like they break even. At least they managed to hold onto the Wonder Twins. Luongo will keep them in every contest. A difficult schedule around the Olympics could make or break their season.
6. Anaheim - TRENDING DOWN - Losses of Pronger and Bouchemin will have a huge impact on their defense. What they gained in return will keep them competitive long into the future but will probably set them back for a least this season. Strong goaltending remains as well as a top line that can match any. They'll need secondary scoring more than ever.
7. Columbus - TRENDING UP - A team definitely on the rise but it is a long difficult climb up the Western Conference ladder. Their first taste of the playoffs was bittersweet and they'll need to make some adjustments to continue to grow. The first step has to be to find some secondary scoring. Unlike Atlanta they've got their superstar under contract and a consistent goalie in place. Hitchcock might want Detroit dead but that is easier said than done.
8. Los Angeles - TRENDING UP - Got to go out on a limb somewhere. This team is due to make a huge jump. Plenty of talent on the roster and solid goaltending getting better by the day. The team would have liked to have landed a big star in the offseason but will have to hope Ryan Smythe can push them and himself. With money still available to spend a trade could still bring significant help. Once this team gets in I expect they'll stay in the hunt for many seasons.
9. St. Louis - TRENDING UP - There's a lot to like about this team and John Davidson definitely has them headed in the right direction. However, they are still very young and their veterans are very old. Some of the younger players must emerge and take on leadership roles for this team to continue moving forward. A tough division makes advancement difficult.
10. Dallas - TRENDING DOWN - It's hard to keep this team out of the playoffs. In the East they'd be a playoff certainty. Someone had to be left out. They are horribly inconsistent on both ends of the ice and until some young players step up to fill vacancies on defense I expect that trend to continue.
11. Nashville - TRENDING DOWN - Trotz has kept this team in the hunt despite losing veteran free agents year after year. I think it has reached the point where the task is near impossible until some of players reach the next maturation stage. With the rest of the teams in the division getting stronger, staying pat isn't going to cut it.
12. Minnesota - TRENDING SAME - A change in coach brings fresh life to the franchise and has to have fans excited. The days of the boring trap style should be long gone. However, that style of play did give them a chance each and every night. Now, it'll take a few seasons to rebuild to a new style. Losing Gaborik and gaining Havlat appears to be a downgrade.
13. Edmonton - TRENDING SAME - Once again Edmonton tried to make the big splash in free agency and came up short. It's really hard to sell a player on coming to Edmonton to play. Once again coaching has changed and there is some good young talent but there isn't much veteran leadership to show the young guys the ropes. Caught in the middle where they never get the top draft picks makes for a difficult development process.
14. Colorado - TRENDING DOWN - Piss poor management pushed a once proud franchise off the edge and it isn't about to start the climb back up just yet. At least they have finally cast aside the useless fossils for a strictly youth movement. Another goalie takes on the big responsibility but without much defense it is a tall task. Only reason Colorado isn't on the bottom is the mess in Phoenix.
15. Phoenix - TRENDING DOWN - Just when the franchise was setting itself for a turnaround on the ice, everything off the ice went terribly wrong. Nobody is buying tickets and I fully expect the team will be playing to 30% capacity on many nights. Their season will play out in the courts, not on the ice and that sort of battle will affect the players. The issues need to be resolved before the Coyotes can even think about winning hockey again. It's too bad. There is some young talent out in the desert that will suffer as a result.
Since the playoffs depend a lot on the actual matchups, let's play this thing out:
Eastern Conference
Round 1
Boston over Carolina
Washington over Atlanta - not if I can help it
Philadelphia over Montreal
Pittsburgh over New Jersey
Round 2
Boston over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Round 3
Boston over Philadelphia
Western Conference
Round 1
San Jose over Los Angeles - so tempting to pick against Sharks
Columbus over Calgary - upset special
Detroit over Anaheim - yikes I really don't want this for a first round matchup
Vancouver over Chicago
Round 2
San Jose over Vancouver
Detroit over Columbus - more difficult series this time around
Round 3
San Jose over Detroit
Finals
Boston over San Jose
Looking at these playoff predictions, I'm left with an uneasy feeling. Many are tossups and a change in a round 1 series can change the whole damn thing. I don't like picking against Detroit. I suspect the Wings will stronger as the season wears on but odds are they can't reach the final yet again.
Once again I put on my thinking cap in an attempt to predict where each of the teams will finish. The are so many variables involved that I feel pretty successful with even a 50% success rate. For the first time I'll give a team "trend" rating indicating the direction I think a team is heading compared to last season.
Eastern Conference
1. Boston - TRENDING UP - A well balanced roster with strengths in all units. Last season's playoff failures may be just the lesson they needed to reach the next level. This team does need strong leadership to emerge but I believe those pieces are in place.
2. Washington - TRENDING SAME - There is no denying the offensive firepower but there remains questions on defense. It'll be interesting to see who carries the load in goal. The loss Federov and Kozlov leaves a leadership void. Their 2nd place finish will be result of beating up on weak SE division.
3. Philadelphia - TRENDING UP - Offense should continue to be strength of this team and defense will determine just how far they go. Addition of Pronger should make defense stronger and powerplay more deadly. Emery had better play well or the team will need to look to make trade.
4. Pittsburgh - TRENDING SAME - When you win the cup, trending same is a good thing. But like the Wings they have played a ton of hockey in the last couple seasons and now sport a giant target on their backs. With the rest of the division bulking up to come at them physically, I don't see a repeat.
5. New Jersey - TRENDING DOWN - I'm not about to count them out again. Even without Broduer they somehow captured the division title last year. Eventually their lack of star power and Broduer's age will catch up with them but strong coaching and great management always seem to keep them in the hunt.
NOTE : There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West. This unbalance won't last much longer though as I see a bunch of these teams on the rise. The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week.
6. Montreal - TRENDING SAME - A retooled team with a ton of question marks. The difference between getting this seed and missing the playoffs could be a couple of points. The new team must come together quick and find consistent goaltending.
7. Atlanta - TRENDING UP - I'm going out on a limb here. When I look at the rest of the competition for the lower spots, I don't see why this team cannot compete. The scored plenty last year and should have more firepower with the addition of Antropov and Kubina. Their top 4 defensemen are the best in team history. Biggest question marks surround goaltending. Someone must emerge as a consistent backstopper or the team is doomed again. As much as it pains me to discuss, the Kovalchuk issue needs to be resolved quickly. The only way that happens is if the team starts strong. A tough task with many road tilts to start the season.
8. Carolina - TRENDING DOWN - Always a tough team to pick. The seem to alternate between really good years and really poor years so I figure this one is a down year. Veteran leadership can carry them only so far. At some point they need to develop some youth.
9. New York Rangers - TRENDING DOWN - All hope rests on the health on Gaborik. If he can't play 65+ games, they won't have a chance. The defense appears weaker and Drury just isn't cutting it up front. While unloading Gomez's contract was a good thing, at least he produced from time to time. Too much pressure on King Henrik.
10. Ottawa - TRENDING SAME - In the long run I think they'll be better for ridding themselves of Heatley. However, it'll take some time to recover. LeClaire in net should be a welcome change for a team used to inconsistency in goal.
11. Buffalo - TRENDING SAME - Ryan Miller will keep the team competitive and Lindy Ruff will generally get the most out of his players. Unfortunately there isn't a lot of upside skill left in this bunch. They should still be in the thick of the race and a trade deadline deal could change their fate.
12. Tampa Bay - TRENDING UP - Nice infusion of young talent and finally getting the message that defense needs to improve. It'll take some time for the pieces to come together but it shouldn't be too far off. Do they have the right coach in place to build the team?
13. Toronto - TRENDING UP - Burke will turn this team around. Expectations are always way too high in Toronto and the pressure to win is insane. Look for at least one more year of rebuilding before the team becomes a real threat.
14. Florida - TRENDING DOWN - The loss of Bouwmeester is huge. They don't have anyone to fill those skates or the minutes. Excellent coaching and some good talent up front can only carry them so far. If they stick to the plan they'll be a threat in years to come but they'll probably fall down a bit before that time.
15. New York Islanders - TRENDING UP - Tavarres is the real deal but he cannot do it alone. The simply isn't enough skill on this team to compete night in and night out. They might actually get a new arena built before this team makes the playoffs. Good news is they'll be in line for a top pick once again. That 15 year contract for DiPietro is looking worse by the day.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. San Jose - TRENDING SAME - Heatley should make this team even more dangerous but their real success will be measured by whether or not they make the Cup finals. Anything less is a total failure. Outside the Heatley trade the didn't tinker much with the lineup and that should allow them to fight for the President's Trophy. They'll face more pressure from Anaheim in their division and from Detroit, Calgary and Chicago within the conference.
2. Calgary - TRENDING SAME - They'll take full advantage of a relatively weak division. The addition of Bouwmeester will be big but they need to find some consistent secondary scoring. If they can find a way to get Kiprosoff some more rest they'll be more dangerous come playoff time.
3. Detroit - TRENDING DOWN - Sorry, I'm not ready to turn this division over to the Blackhawks just yet. I see this as a retooling, not rebuilding, year in Detroit and that will probably mean a less dominant team in the short run. However, they were pretty poor on defense, and especially the penalty kill last year and I cannot imagine that area won't improve. There is a ton of young talent ready to take the next step so the downward trend will be VERY short. Goaltending will dictate just how far this team can go. I like the addition of Eaves and Bertuzzi but Williams has a lot to prove to me. Honestly, I can't wait to see how the young kids (Abdelkader, Leino, Helm, Ericcson and Howard) perform.
4. Chicago - TRENDING SAME - All the rage with the "experts", I expect they are a tad early. Last year Chicago overachieved and this year they'll simply achieve. Injuries and offseason legal issues don't exactly breed confidence (who harasses a cabbie over $0.40?). I consider the Hossa for Havlat exchange a bit of a wash (although Hossa is better defensively) but the failure to re-sign Khabibulin is a big mistake. I'm not sold that Huet can have the same success and their backups have almost no experience. If what I read about their cap issues is true, Chicago's rise could be a very short one.
5. Vancounver - TRENDING SAME - Every year they desperately try to improve this team and every year it seems like they break even. At least they managed to hold onto the Wonder Twins. Luongo will keep them in every contest. A difficult schedule around the Olympics could make or break their season.
6. Anaheim - TRENDING DOWN - Losses of Pronger and Bouchemin will have a huge impact on their defense. What they gained in return will keep them competitive long into the future but will probably set them back for a least this season. Strong goaltending remains as well as a top line that can match any. They'll need secondary scoring more than ever.
7. Columbus - TRENDING UP - A team definitely on the rise but it is a long difficult climb up the Western Conference ladder. Their first taste of the playoffs was bittersweet and they'll need to make some adjustments to continue to grow. The first step has to be to find some secondary scoring. Unlike Atlanta they've got their superstar under contract and a consistent goalie in place. Hitchcock might want Detroit dead but that is easier said than done.
8. Los Angeles - TRENDING UP - Got to go out on a limb somewhere. This team is due to make a huge jump. Plenty of talent on the roster and solid goaltending getting better by the day. The team would have liked to have landed a big star in the offseason but will have to hope Ryan Smythe can push them and himself. With money still available to spend a trade could still bring significant help. Once this team gets in I expect they'll stay in the hunt for many seasons.
9. St. Louis - TRENDING UP - There's a lot to like about this team and John Davidson definitely has them headed in the right direction. However, they are still very young and their veterans are very old. Some of the younger players must emerge and take on leadership roles for this team to continue moving forward. A tough division makes advancement difficult.
10. Dallas - TRENDING DOWN - It's hard to keep this team out of the playoffs. In the East they'd be a playoff certainty. Someone had to be left out. They are horribly inconsistent on both ends of the ice and until some young players step up to fill vacancies on defense I expect that trend to continue.
11. Nashville - TRENDING DOWN - Trotz has kept this team in the hunt despite losing veteran free agents year after year. I think it has reached the point where the task is near impossible until some of players reach the next maturation stage. With the rest of the teams in the division getting stronger, staying pat isn't going to cut it.
12. Minnesota - TRENDING SAME - A change in coach brings fresh life to the franchise and has to have fans excited. The days of the boring trap style should be long gone. However, that style of play did give them a chance each and every night. Now, it'll take a few seasons to rebuild to a new style. Losing Gaborik and gaining Havlat appears to be a downgrade.
13. Edmonton - TRENDING SAME - Once again Edmonton tried to make the big splash in free agency and came up short. It's really hard to sell a player on coming to Edmonton to play. Once again coaching has changed and there is some good young talent but there isn't much veteran leadership to show the young guys the ropes. Caught in the middle where they never get the top draft picks makes for a difficult development process.
14. Colorado - TRENDING DOWN - Piss poor management pushed a once proud franchise off the edge and it isn't about to start the climb back up just yet. At least they have finally cast aside the useless fossils for a strictly youth movement. Another goalie takes on the big responsibility but without much defense it is a tall task. Only reason Colorado isn't on the bottom is the mess in Phoenix.
15. Phoenix - TRENDING DOWN - Just when the franchise was setting itself for a turnaround on the ice, everything off the ice went terribly wrong. Nobody is buying tickets and I fully expect the team will be playing to 30% capacity on many nights. Their season will play out in the courts, not on the ice and that sort of battle will affect the players. The issues need to be resolved before the Coyotes can even think about winning hockey again. It's too bad. There is some young talent out in the desert that will suffer as a result.
Since the playoffs depend a lot on the actual matchups, let's play this thing out:
Eastern Conference
Round 1
Boston over Carolina
Washington over Atlanta - not if I can help it
Philadelphia over Montreal
Pittsburgh over New Jersey
Round 2
Boston over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington
Round 3
Boston over Philadelphia
Western Conference
Round 1
San Jose over Los Angeles - so tempting to pick against Sharks
Columbus over Calgary - upset special
Detroit over Anaheim - yikes I really don't want this for a first round matchup
Vancouver over Chicago
Round 2
San Jose over Vancouver
Detroit over Columbus - more difficult series this time around
Round 3
San Jose over Detroit
Finals
Boston over San Jose
Looking at these playoff predictions, I'm left with an uneasy feeling. Many are tossups and a change in a round 1 series can change the whole damn thing. I don't like picking against Detroit. I suspect the Wings will stronger as the season wears on but odds are they can't reach the final yet again.
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