NHL Predictions

The journey begins again tonight. All 30 teams start the season 0-0 with the same dream of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup sometime in June. For some, just getting to the playoffs would be a major accomplishment. For others, failing to reach the finals will be a failure.

Once again I put on my thinking cap in an attempt to predict where each of the teams will finish. The are so many variables involved that I feel pretty successful with even a 50% success rate. For the first time I'll give a team "trend" rating indicating the direction I think a team is heading compared to last season.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston - TRENDING UP - A well balanced roster with strengths in all units. Last season's playoff failures may be just the lesson they needed to reach the next level. This team does need strong leadership to emerge but I believe those pieces are in place.

2. Washington - TRENDING SAME - There is no denying the offensive firepower but there remains questions on defense. It'll be interesting to see who carries the load in goal. The loss Federov and Kozlov leaves a leadership void. Their 2nd place finish will be result of beating up on weak SE division.

3. Philadelphia - TRENDING UP - Offense should continue to be strength of this team and defense will determine just how far they go. Addition of Pronger should make defense stronger and powerplay more deadly. Emery had better play well or the team will need to look to make trade.

4. Pittsburgh - TRENDING SAME - When you win the cup, trending same is a good thing. But like the Wings they have played a ton of hockey in the last couple seasons and now sport a giant target on their backs. With the rest of the division bulking up to come at them physically, I don't see a repeat.

5. New Jersey - TRENDING DOWN - I'm not about to count them out again. Even without Broduer they somehow captured the division title last year. Eventually their lack of star power and Broduer's age will catch up with them but strong coaching and great management always seem to keep them in the hunt.

NOTE : There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West. This unbalance won't last much longer though as I see a bunch of these teams on the rise. The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week.

6. Montreal - TRENDING SAME - A retooled team with a ton of question marks. The difference between getting this seed and missing the playoffs could be a couple of points. The new team must come together quick and find consistent goaltending.

7. Atlanta - TRENDING UP - I'm going out on a limb here. When I look at the rest of the competition for the lower spots, I don't see why this team cannot compete. The scored plenty last year and should have more firepower with the addition of Antropov and Kubina. Their top 4 defensemen are the best in team history. Biggest question marks surround goaltending. Someone must emerge as a consistent backstopper or the team is doomed again. As much as it pains me to discuss, the Kovalchuk issue needs to be resolved quickly. The only way that happens is if the team starts strong. A tough task with many road tilts to start the season.

8. Carolina - TRENDING DOWN - Always a tough team to pick. The seem to alternate between really good years and really poor years so I figure this one is a down year. Veteran leadership can carry them only so far. At some point they need to develop some youth.

9. New York Rangers - TRENDING DOWN - All hope rests on the health on Gaborik. If he can't play 65+ games, they won't have a chance. The defense appears weaker and Drury just isn't cutting it up front. While unloading Gomez's contract was a good thing, at least he produced from time to time. Too much pressure on King Henrik.

10. Ottawa - TRENDING SAME - In the long run I think they'll be better for ridding themselves of Heatley. However, it'll take some time to recover. LeClaire in net should be a welcome change for a team used to inconsistency in goal.

11. Buffalo - TRENDING SAME - Ryan Miller will keep the team competitive and Lindy Ruff will generally get the most out of his players. Unfortunately there isn't a lot of upside skill left in this bunch. They should still be in the thick of the race and a trade deadline deal could change their fate.

12. Tampa Bay - TRENDING UP - Nice infusion of young talent and finally getting the message that defense needs to improve. It'll take some time for the pieces to come together but it shouldn't be too far off. Do they have the right coach in place to build the team?

13. Toronto - TRENDING UP - Burke will turn this team around. Expectations are always way too high in Toronto and the pressure to win is insane. Look for at least one more year of rebuilding before the team becomes a real threat.

14. Florida - TRENDING DOWN - The loss of Bouwmeester is huge. They don't have anyone to fill those skates or the minutes. Excellent coaching and some good talent up front can only carry them so far. If they stick to the plan they'll be a threat in years to come but they'll probably fall down a bit before that time.

15. New York Islanders - TRENDING UP - Tavarres is the real deal but he cannot do it alone. The simply isn't enough skill on this team to compete night in and night out. They might actually get a new arena built before this team makes the playoffs. Good news is they'll be in line for a top pick once again. That 15 year contract for DiPietro is looking worse by the day.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. San Jose - TRENDING SAME - Heatley should make this team even more dangerous but their real success will be measured by whether or not they make the Cup finals. Anything less is a total failure. Outside the Heatley trade the didn't tinker much with the lineup and that should allow them to fight for the President's Trophy. They'll face more pressure from Anaheim in their division and from Detroit, Calgary and Chicago within the conference.

2. Calgary - TRENDING SAME - They'll take full advantage of a relatively weak division. The addition of Bouwmeester will be big but they need to find some consistent secondary scoring. If they can find a way to get Kiprosoff some more rest they'll be more dangerous come playoff time.

3. Detroit - TRENDING DOWN - Sorry, I'm not ready to turn this division over to the Blackhawks just yet. I see this as a retooling, not rebuilding, year in Detroit and that will probably mean a less dominant team in the short run. However, they were pretty poor on defense, and especially the penalty kill last year and I cannot imagine that area won't improve. There is a ton of young talent ready to take the next step so the downward trend will be VERY short. Goaltending will dictate just how far this team can go. I like the addition of Eaves and Bertuzzi but Williams has a lot to prove to me. Honestly, I can't wait to see how the young kids (Abdelkader, Leino, Helm, Ericcson and Howard) perform.

4. Chicago - TRENDING SAME - All the rage with the "experts", I expect they are a tad early. Last year Chicago overachieved and this year they'll simply achieve. Injuries and offseason legal issues don't exactly breed confidence (who harasses a cabbie over $0.40?). I consider the Hossa for Havlat exchange a bit of a wash (although Hossa is better defensively) but the failure to re-sign Khabibulin is a big mistake. I'm not sold that Huet can have the same success and their backups have almost no experience. If what I read about their cap issues is true, Chicago's rise could be a very short one.

5. Vancounver - TRENDING SAME - Every year they desperately try to improve this team and every year it seems like they break even. At least they managed to hold onto the Wonder Twins. Luongo will keep them in every contest. A difficult schedule around the Olympics could make or break their season.

6. Anaheim - TRENDING DOWN - Losses of Pronger and Bouchemin will have a huge impact on their defense. What they gained in return will keep them competitive long into the future but will probably set them back for a least this season. Strong goaltending remains as well as a top line that can match any. They'll need secondary scoring more than ever.

7. Columbus - TRENDING UP - A team definitely on the rise but it is a long difficult climb up the Western Conference ladder. Their first taste of the playoffs was bittersweet and they'll need to make some adjustments to continue to grow. The first step has to be to find some secondary scoring. Unlike Atlanta they've got their superstar under contract and a consistent goalie in place. Hitchcock might want Detroit dead but that is easier said than done.

8. Los Angeles - TRENDING UP - Got to go out on a limb somewhere. This team is due to make a huge jump. Plenty of talent on the roster and solid goaltending getting better by the day. The team would have liked to have landed a big star in the offseason but will have to hope Ryan Smythe can push them and himself. With money still available to spend a trade could still bring significant help. Once this team gets in I expect they'll stay in the hunt for many seasons.

9. St. Louis - TRENDING UP - There's a lot to like about this team and John Davidson definitely has them headed in the right direction. However, they are still very young and their veterans are very old. Some of the younger players must emerge and take on leadership roles for this team to continue moving forward. A tough division makes advancement difficult.

10. Dallas - TRENDING DOWN - It's hard to keep this team out of the playoffs. In the East they'd be a playoff certainty. Someone had to be left out. They are horribly inconsistent on both ends of the ice and until some young players step up to fill vacancies on defense I expect that trend to continue.

11. Nashville - TRENDING DOWN - Trotz has kept this team in the hunt despite losing veteran free agents year after year. I think it has reached the point where the task is near impossible until some of players reach the next maturation stage. With the rest of the teams in the division getting stronger, staying pat isn't going to cut it.

12. Minnesota - TRENDING SAME - A change in coach brings fresh life to the franchise and has to have fans excited. The days of the boring trap style should be long gone. However, that style of play did give them a chance each and every night. Now, it'll take a few seasons to rebuild to a new style. Losing Gaborik and gaining Havlat appears to be a downgrade.

13. Edmonton - TRENDING SAME - Once again Edmonton tried to make the big splash in free agency and came up short. It's really hard to sell a player on coming to Edmonton to play. Once again coaching has changed and there is some good young talent but there isn't much veteran leadership to show the young guys the ropes. Caught in the middle where they never get the top draft picks makes for a difficult development process.

14. Colorado - TRENDING DOWN - Piss poor management pushed a once proud franchise off the edge and it isn't about to start the climb back up just yet. At least they have finally cast aside the useless fossils for a strictly youth movement. Another goalie takes on the big responsibility but without much defense it is a tall task. Only reason Colorado isn't on the bottom is the mess in Phoenix.

15. Phoenix - TRENDING DOWN - Just when the franchise was setting itself for a turnaround on the ice, everything off the ice went terribly wrong. Nobody is buying tickets and I fully expect the team will be playing to 30% capacity on many nights. Their season will play out in the courts, not on the ice and that sort of battle will affect the players. The issues need to be resolved before the Coyotes can even think about winning hockey again. It's too bad. There is some young talent out in the desert that will suffer as a result.

Since the playoffs depend a lot on the actual matchups, let's play this thing out:

Eastern Conference

Round 1
Boston over Carolina
Washington over Atlanta - not if I can help it
Philadelphia over Montreal
Pittsburgh over New Jersey

Round 2
Boston over Pittsburgh
Philadelphia over Washington

Round 3
Boston over Philadelphia

Western Conference

Round 1
San Jose over Los Angeles - so tempting to pick against Sharks
Columbus over Calgary - upset special
Detroit over Anaheim - yikes I really don't want this for a first round matchup
Vancouver over Chicago

Round 2
San Jose over Vancouver
Detroit over Columbus - more difficult series this time around

Round 3
San Jose over Detroit

Finals
Boston over San Jose

Looking at these playoff predictions, I'm left with an uneasy feeling. Many are tossups and a change in a round 1 series can change the whole damn thing. I don't like picking against Detroit. I suspect the Wings will stronger as the season wears on but odds are they can't reach the final yet again.