No rest for the weary. After dealing with multiple late night West coast games in round 1, I'll be enduring more in round 2 when the Wings head to San Jose. Less than 24 hours after the last game of round one is completed, round 2 begins. I've got to get these predictions out. I'm under the gun.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions
It's that time of year again. The NHL playoffs are set to begin. It's become a yearly ritual for me to make predictions with comments. It seems like every year it is a bit more challenging. So many teams are capable of winning a series. So many goaltenders are capable of stealing a game or two to change the momentum. Every team has some question marks as well as strengths.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
NHL Predictions - A Look Back
Before I dive head-first into playoff predictions, I need to look back and see how well I did with my preseason predictions.
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
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