No rest for the weary. After dealing with multiple late night West coast games in round 1, I'll be enduring more in round 2 when the Wings head to San Jose. Less than 24 hours after the last game of round one is completed, round 2 begins. I've got to get these predictions out. I'm under the gun.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
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