Atlanta 4 - Washington 2
If any game was worthy of a first-hand observation report, this one was.
It was great to be back at Philip's Arena for the first non-exhibition hockey since mid-April. I was excited to witness a real game from my new roost. As expected, for an opening game against on of the better teams in hockey, the crowd was fairly large. However, even with a couple thousand seats now unavailable behind curtains, it appeared to be a little less than a sellout. I can't really blame those for not coming. I just hope the team can convince a few of those who are on the fence to come on down.
Good electricity from the extended introductions and good play by the Thrashers early quickly turned solemn and silent. Atlanta goalie, Andre Pavelec, collapse in front of his crease just before a faceoff was to occur at the other end. Team doctors and medical staff quickly got to him but he lay motionless for the better part of 15 minutes while doctors examined him. I couldn't help but think of the scene just a few seasons ago when the Red Wing's Jiri Fischer had to have his heart restarted on the ice. The good news was I noticed they were not performing CPR or trying to ventilate him. However, he never moved. After getting him strapped on a board he was wheeled off the ice on a stretcher. Plenty of well-wishing cheers but still no movement.
As fans we were left wondering what had happened. Nobody in our section had actually seen him fall because the action was at the other end. Thankfully, through the links of cell phones, text messages and the internet we got some more information. Pavelec had collapsed and was indeed unconscious when he left the building. He did regain consciousness at the hospital and appeared to be ok. As of this writing, he is still in the hospital with a concussion (likely from the fall) and is under observation.
I thought there might be discussion of postponing the game (they did so in the Wing's contest) but likelihood of that seem remote since it was opening night. Action started up again after 20 minutes. Players and coaches had brief meetings and Mason went in to replace Pavelec in net.
I almost expected this tragedy to take something away from the Thrashers and for the next couple of minutes they were a bit out of sorts. They committed one of their only mistakes of the night allowing the Capitals to put a pretty tic-tac-toe shot past Mason, the first shot he faced.
However, it wasn't long until the Thrashers were back to dominating the Capitals once again. They had a forecheck and offensive cycling like I've rarely seen in Atlanta (at least for the home team). On the defensive end they were in great position and getting the puck up the ice quick. Forwards and d-men were doing a great job of keeping the puck in the Caps zone. Finally, they were rewarded for their hard work when Kane scored the first goal of the season! This fan and many others finally could stand up and cheer again.
But the Thrashers didn't stop there. The almost got another one on some good net front presence but it was waved no goal as the refs lost sight of the puck. Ladd scored one on a nice deflection from the point. More pressure in front caused a Cap to attempt to cover the puck inside the crease which a ref actually caught! A penalty shot was awarded. Kane converted the shot and if he hadn't already turned the 14,000 people into fans with his Cooke KO or his first goal, this one surely did. 3-1!
The third period started with the Thrashers still controlling play but a defensemen got caught up ice. A quick turnover led to a fairly easy 2 on 1 goal for the Caps. Having scene this scenario far too often over the years and knowing the talent of the Caps, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach with only a one goal lead. Fortunately, the Thrashers continued to play extremely well and there weren't many good Capital shots. A icing situation forced by the Thrashers forecheck resulted in a quick goal off a faceoff by Modin. The Thrashers played great defense down the stretch including the last 1:20 when the Caps pulled their goalie.
It was an amazing performance under some extreme circumstances. They way the team responded showed quite a bit about the players on the roster and the coaches behind the bench. While it must have been hard for Mason to come into that situation, he handled it fairly well. None of the goals could be blamed on him. I think he can play better in terms of rebound control but he came up big when needed to. He had once save on Ovechkin that had Alex shaking his head in disbelief.
Normally, I'd agree with the media and pick Kane as the star of the game but in this contest it has to go to the medical staff, specialists and EMTs. I cannot believe how quick they responded to the situation.
Kane was a monster all night long. Not only the strongest puck handler, but he also delivered the biggest hits. At the beginning of the game I was thinking I should revise my prediction of 30G/70PTs down a bit (25/65). Maybe now I should RAISE them.
The former Blackhawks also played a big role. Not only did Ladd get on the board but Byfuglien was probably their best defenseman. Sopel was good at blocking shots (the team blocked a ton) and all made their physical presence know.
I was a bit shocked to see the rookie, Burmistov, playing on the penalty kill in his first NHL game. That's almost unheard of. Frankly, he did a very good job. He was also a force on the offensive end. He gets a bit over matched by size from time to time but has some speed, nice hands and some nifty moves.
They outplayed the Caps by a large margin, got more shots, more hits, more shot blocks and won more faceoffs. Those are categories the Thrashers rarely win, especially against teams like the Caps.
I don't want to get too excited because the Thrashers have looked good for a game or two before. However, I saw all the elements that were advertised to us, by the coaches, all offseason. A more physical, fore-checking team with an active yet responsible defense. Solid goaltending and good number of guys with good puck skills. This was no cupcake they beat. The Capitals wanted to come out strong after their lackluster playoff showing. It's a long season ahead but the first step was a mighty nice one.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
NHL 2010-11 Predictions
Once again time is running out on me. I always try to put these predictions out as late as possible so I can take into account the most recent injuries, acquisitions and lineup changes. At some point I’ve got to just dig in and do the write-up. It’s a tradition going back over twenty years although the forum for sharing the information and means of presentation changes a bit from year to year.
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
----
9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
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9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
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