Once again time is running out on me. I always try to put these predictions out as late as possible so I can take into account the most recent injuries, acquisitions and lineup changes. At some point I’ve got to just dig in and do the write-up. It’s a tradition going back over twenty years although the forum for sharing the information and means of presentation changes a bit from year to year.
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
----
9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
No comments:
Post a Comment