NHL Playoff Predictions - A Prequel

It's that time of the year again. No more sleep filled nights. No more spring weekends outside. Instead I get to endure West coast games starting at 10:30PM almost every weeknight and being holed up in my basement watching afternoon tilts on the weekends. But I do this by choice because there isn't much better than NHL playoff hockey. I would have preferred watching it firsthand, right here in Atlanta, but once again that hope is left for "next season".

Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared. It seems like ages ago and only yesterday at the same time. My predictions were very accurate picking 13 of 16 playoff teams and 5 of 6 division winners. Most of my observations were accurate as well. About the only mistakes I made were with Anaheim, the New York Rangers and Ottawa. Cory Perry pushed the Ducks into the mix, rapid development of some young Rangers put them a year ahead of schedule and Ottawa sell-off sent them crashing downward.

Honestly, it wasn't tough to predict that there would be a dogfight for the bottom playoff seedings. To me the biggest surprise of the season had to be how much the Blackhawks struggled. I knew they'd take a step back but I never envisioned them struggling to make the playoffs. Considering the key injuries the Penguins faced, I was shocked they were battling for the division until the final weekend.

An 82 game season usually results in the best teams making the playoffs and it's pretty hard to argue that any quality teams were left out. In the end, Dallas and Atlanta just weren't as good as they started, Toronto wasn't ready, Washington was a stronger team than Tampa and Vancouver was the class of the league. But that is the regular season. The playoffs are a different story. Look no further than the Flyers, Caps and Canadien teams of last year to see how different the two seasons can be. Players must raise their play to the next level and each mistake is magnified. Extended scoring slumps or simply injuries can mean the difference between playing on the ice or on the golf course when the calender turns to May.

My preseason prediction for the eventual cup winner, Vancouver, doesn't look too bad either. They appear to have all the key pieces in place to grab the coveted prize. But sometimes, those lofty expectations give way to simple bad luck. In an attempt to avoid repetition in my upcoming predictions, here are some of the keys I think ANY successful playoff team must have to win the big prize:

1. Faceoffs - The most underrated statistic in all of professional hockey. It sets the tone for the offense and allows the defense to get our of their own zone. A team that can dominate in the circles can set the pace of a game. Vancouver, San Jose and Detroit are leaders in this facet with New York and Pittsburgh among the worst.


2. Discipline - There is a difference between a good penalty and a bad penalty and the bad ones always seem to be magnified in the playoffs. Detroit, Chicago and Phoenix are among the least penalized while Pittsburgh and Anaheim were among the most penalized.


3. Goaltending - Goaltending can steal a series all alone and there are plenty of candidates capable of doing this. The teams that don't have one of these goaltenders need to be especially worried. That means Washington, Detroit, Philly have to find ways to score because they won't feel comfortable with one goal leads. Can outstanding goaltending in the regular season in Nashville carry over to the playoffs?


4. Grinders - Playoffs are rarely the time where superstars dictate the results. While they may be the big point producers, it is the contributions of the 3rd & 4th line players that elevate the entire team. If a team has a weekness on the 3rd or 4th line, it'll be exposed.


5. Penalty Killing - Mistakes will happen but the best teams can handle the pressure. This is no place for rookies, prima donas, or chance takers. The little things like chipping the puck out and making sure you get it deep for a line change are huge. Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver had the best penalty killing units in the regular season. Both Phoenix and San Jose had miserable units.


6. Coaching - Adjustments need to be made from game to game and from period to period. A coach has to know when to yank a goalie and how to rally the troops. The Penguin's Bylsma did a fantastic job in the regular season but these playoffs are chock full of pedigreed coaches. It's the inexperienced one in Tampa that faces the biggest challenge.


7. Experience - This comes into play in every game but where it tends to count the most is when the team faces some adversity. Experience keeps a team/player focussed. It allows them to put a bad goal or a bad shift behind him. San Jose, Philly, Chicago and Montreal gained valuable experience last year. Detroit and Pittsburgh have it in bunches. At the opposite end of the spectrum New York, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Phoenix don't have a hell of lot. Washington and Boston may actually be fighting against their previous experience.


8. Injuries - No one can predict which team will be affected and few teams are completely healthy at this point. Especially troubling has to be the unknown status of Crosby in Pittsburgh, Zetterberg's "lower body injury" in Detroit, Pronger in Philly, Kopitar/Williams in L.A., Callahan in N.Y. and the banged up defense in Vancouver. How quickly the players return, plus how the teams responds in the absence, will go a long way to determining the eventual champion.

I'm sure I could come up with more but that's enough to chew on. Now it's time to get cracking on the next blog post containing the actual predictions.