No rest for the weary. Late night West coast games give way to more of the same. At least there are now less games to follow. This year I've watched even more than I did last year. I caught portions of every game and watched about 1/2 in their entirety. As I type this I'm flipping back and forth between two game sevens. I'm one sick puppy.
Before moving onto my predictions, a look back at round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
Actual : WASHINGTON in 5 - WIN $85
This series played almost exactly as expected. The series could have been a little closer if only the Rangers had a bit more offense. Washington simply had too much skill for the Rangers to handle and only Lunqvist and a quality defense keep the games fairly close. This should be a good confidence builder for Washington heading forward and reinforces the Ranger's need to find another scorer and seriously chase Richards over the summer.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Actual : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - WIN $75
Buffalo ended up making this series much tighter than I expected. There was a lot of sloppy defense in this series by the Flyers and it almost cost them a chance at the ultimate prize. When they finally buckled down in game 7 they easily controlled the game. Miller did an admireable job of keeping a depleted team in the running but in the end he wasn't enough. Philly's goaltending was even more of an adventure than anyone expected. It wasn't pretty and if they can't find some consistency moving forward they won't stand a chance. Pronger's return could be the turning point. As I noted faceoff wins are a much underappreciated stat. Turns out two of them resulted in Flyer goals in game 7.
#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Actual : BOSTON in 7 - WIN $65
Not as big as a mismatch as I expected as Boston wasn't as sound defensively as they had been down the stretch. The opportunistic Canadiens took advantage of every miscue. Boston managed to blow another early game seven lead and almost blew yet another game seven at home. They'll have to ratchet it up on both ends of the ice to compete in round 2.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 7 - WIN $25
I found this to be the least entertaining game to watch. Something about the tempo, numerous miscues and lack of history between the clubs always found me turning elsewhere. Goaltending was a mixed bag, as I expected, and the Lightning's young defense was exposed at times. Either team could have ultimately won this series. I had the hardest time picking this series and it ended up being about the most even. Had the Penguins had Crosby and Malkin, I don't expect it would have been close. Expect to hear Penguin fans bitch about it on the golf courses next week.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Actual : VANCOUVER in 7 : WIN $90
It doesn't shock me that this series went to seven games, but the route it took was unexpected. Two heavily skilled teams put on a show. It was entertaining to watch without a vested interest but I suspect it would have been a nightmare I were rooting for either club. The Canucks almost single handedly put the province of British Columbia into a decade of depression. Vancouver could have dispatched of Chicago much earlier had Luongo not had his annual meltdown or the young Chicago goalie, Crawford, not played spectacular in game 7. Vancouver comes out on top in the end and some of the lessons they learned may just propel them to the Cup but they better find a way to play more consistent in goal and on defense.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
Actual : SAN JOSE in 6 - WIN $40
The Kings ran into some bad luck and inconsistent play that simply kept them from making the series any closer. Losing a game after having a 4-0 lead was the turning point for the series as the young Kings failed to take the next step. San Jose looked unbeatable most of the time but were shaky enough in net that they had to make multiple goalie changes. Fixing that is the key to going forward.
#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Actual : DETROIT in 4 - WIN $45
OK, I feel a little more confident in the Wings after seeing this series. They totally dismantled the Coyotes in every fashion. Surprisingly, Howard ended up being the better goalie in the series and Phoenix really had no answers for the Wings depth even without Zetterberg for the whole series and Franzen for game 4. Detroit's only flaw was their penalty killing but it came up big when needed most. As I predicted, Helm and Abdelkader were significant players. Finishing this series in 4 and avoiding the extra wear and travel should be a benefit to Detroit down the road.
#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
Actual : NASHVILLE in 6 - WIN $30
I expected this to be excellent series but a bit boring to watch. I was completely wrong. This was probably the most entertaining series on the dial due to some spectacular goalies, very physical play and back and forth action. The Predators didn't play much of their slowdown style and it looked like it might cost them for awhile. In the end, it was the Ducks troubles in net that kept them from advancing. Trotz finally got a much deserved series win for the Preds and the city of Nashville.
That's 8 for 8 on picks and $455 in winnings. No, I didn't pick a lot of upsets but the ones I did pick panned out. Also, the lowest wagers I made typically ended up being the closest series. Not too bad for an "amatuer" and much better than some of those "professional" goofs on Versus. When asked to make a prediction during last night's Boston-Montreal contest, Jeremy Roenick had the intelligence to make the bold prediction "I predict someone will win". I think he rides the short bus to the rink.
On to round 2 which begins less than 24 hours after the finish of round 1.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Like Vancouver in the West, I believe Washington's first round victory will serve as a catalyst to get them through this round with relative ease. Facing a much less sound defensive squad and a weaker goaltender, they should be able to tickle the twine a bit more. But, they have to careful not to fall into old habits and remember to play defense first. Patience is the key for both teams. Tampa will need Roloson to stand on his head and find a way to steal one of the two in Washington to have any chance. It should be a fun series to watch.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Both teams narrowly got here and neither played their best hockey in round 1. Philly, in particular, looked lost at times against Buffalo but I am counting on them righting the ship and finding a way to dispatch with the less skilled Boston team. It's a good matchup for the Flyers as long as their goaltending quits giving up the easy goals. Enough with the rotating goalies! Philly shouldn't have to change their gameplan much as Boston is almost identical to Buffalo except they have more skill at every position. Boston's strength is one defense and it net and they'll need every bit of it. Playing a tight disciplined game is their best way to win. As Pronger gets healthier the Flyers should spread their wings a bit. An aggressive gameplan should get them to the next round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
I'm of the belief that Vancouver's first round will serve as a catalyst and this series will end up being more lopsided than their first. Nashville is going to have their hands full trying to keep up with the skill level of the Nucks. The wildcard, once again, is in net. If Nashville can somehow get to Luongo early it can be an entirely different series. Nashville cannot duplicate Chicago's path. They don't have the tools to rebound from a big deficit. The Preds must get back to playing a slower tempo, defense oriented game in hopes of frustrating the Canucks. Rinne has to play like a MVP to have any chance.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
I'm torn on this one and went back and forth with my prediction. That's why my confidence bet is so pathetically low. For the moment my confidence is a bit higher with Detroit. It all comes down to stealing one of the first two on the road in San Jose. Frankly, I think playing the first two on the road may work in Detroit's favor. Since they have been resting so long, using a game to find their legs isn't a problem. Their road record has been spectacular and they tend to play more relaxed away from the Joe. While San Jose may have the advantage up front, Detroit has the better defense. The diffence could be in goal and Howard has played better than San Jose's duo. Much will be made about last year's series but that was much closer than the 4-0 sweep indicated with each contest essentially a one goal game. I expect to see one or two overtime games. I just hope they don't come in one of those 10:30PM EDT starts. This round the Wings will need all their weapons so keeping Zetterberg and Franzen on the ice is key. Both teams need to stay out of the penalty box.
That's a total of $195 bet.
Since my previous Cup finals participants are still alive, I won't be changing anything. But I better see improvement this round or my Eastern Conference pick (Flyers) will change one way (forced by elimination) or another (loss of confidence).
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