Seattle to Portland with much hiking in between

TRIP - PLANNING

Eager to take a vacation from the day to day grind, I started thinking of a destination around mid April. I didn't want to deal with the crowds or heat of the summer but I needed to take it ASAP to preserve my sanity. So, I settled on the week after Labor Day.

Since I was doing this alone, I focussed on the things I like; seeing new places, being outside and taking photos. One strong candidate was to pick up where Crimson and I left off during our journey from San Diego to San Francisco. But when I started looking into Oregon and Washington state, I found there were other destinations calling me, the mountains and great hiking.

It took me weeks to plan the trip. The general idea was to fly into Seattle, drive to multiple day hiking sites in Washington and Oregon and fly out of Portland. I settled on dates, places to stay and a few areas to explore. Right in the middle of my planning, tragedy struck. While returning from college visits in South Carolina, Crimson and I were in a car wreck that totaled my car. Fortuantely, neither of us were hurt but finding a new car became first priority.

Once I had a new car, I got back to planning the vacation. I had hikes to pick, supplies to buy, routes to map and more. I was going to stay in hotels at night but be busy as hell during the day. Every day had multiple hike options so I could pick and choose based on how much energy I had and how much time was available.

The weather forecast looked great for my trip. Only one day had any chance of rain and that was only light showers. Temperatures were forecast well below the 90F heat and humidity of an Atlanta summer.

Everyone had advice for me on this solo trip. Everything from getting a gun to bringing bear spray to deal with the wildlife and whatever else I might run into. Being a fairly experienced hiker, I was prepared but not paranoid.

DAY 1 - DOWNTOWN SEATTLE

Early Saturday September 8th, I took off for Seattle, arriving mid-day. The weather was beautiful with only a few puffy clouds in the skuy. My first destination was Akli Beach which was supposed to have great views of the Seattle skyline. I snapped a couple great shots and headed for downtown Seattle.

I arrived at Pikes Place Market, a popular tourist spot, and parked the car. I quickly realized Seattle was a lot hillier than I thought. It was going to be a workout just walking around the city. The market was crowded but a great experience. All the food was so enticing. I settled on some smoked salmon for a snack.

After getting  my fill of the market, I went off to check out some architecture. I walked to the Seattle Public Library and checked out the unique interior design. Apparently I wasn't the only one doing it as there were at least 10 other people in there taking pictures. From there it was on to Smith Tower and a plan to check out the observation deck. Unfortunately, it was closed for remodeling. I walked back along the waterfront to Pikes Place Market and ate some more good grub (orange chicken and kielbasa skewers). I grabbed a pear and canolis on the way out. It was time to get to the hotel and get some rest. Some flatbread pizza and one of those canolis finished my day. A thought briefly went through my mind that this would be the best food day of the trip. In hindsight, it was.

DAY 2 - DOWNTOWN SEATTLE  PART 2

Most of my days would start early and end well before my usual bedtime. I figured if I stayed on Atlanta time in would help me maximize my hiking. It was a plan that worked out quite well.

I started this day at the Seattle Music Experience and Sci-Fi museum, a short walk from my hotel. I enjoyed all the displays, some of them more than the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame. From there it was down to the Olympic Sculpture Park and more waterfront views.

I planned on heading out of Seattle early to get to my next hotel, 1.5 hours North of Seattle, in time for the Denver Broncos game at 5PM. However, I was stopping at a few more places on my way out of town. First, Kerry Park for some excellent skyline photos. Next was Gas Works Park, a neat industrial site turned into a nice public space. Finally, the Freemont Troll.

I arrived at the hotel with just enough time to grab some groceries for the next week of hiking and sit down in front of the TV to watch the Broncos win their opening game.

DAY 3 - MOUNT BAKER

I awoke early, ready to hike. Frankly, I was a little worried. All the walking in Seattle had left me a lot sorer than expected. I had 5 days of hiking in front of me with no non-hiking options. Worries be damned, I was going to push myself and see what happened.

The first stop was more sight than hike, Noonsack Falls. Far from the most spectacular falls I've seen but nice to know I was on my way. From there I continued to drive higher and higher up into the Mount Baker area until reaching the end of the road at Artist Point. Despite some fairly heavy cloud cover, the views were spectacular.

I got out of the car to see a glacier meeting me at the end of the parking lot, 37F temps, and visibility of about 100 feet. I was literally up in the clouds at about 5500 feet. I started to worry that I didn't bring enough warm clothes. I set off on my first hike, a 3 mile round trip to the top of Table Mountain. It was a good first hike, challenge up on a narrow rock path. I realized just how tough a thin atmosphere can be. Prior to this hike, I never did one above about 2500 feet. During this trip, I'd hit 6500 a couple of times. There was plenty of snow up there but no people on this path. The peace and quiet was great.

Next up was the Artist Ridge hike, a 2 mile round trip. Near the end of it I encountered the only rain during my trip, just a few drops as I headed back to the car for lunch. A steadier rain came as I sat in my car eating a hikers lunch of granola and cereal bars. The rain stopped as I headed to my next hike and presented my with a great opportunity to capture a nice rainbow between the mountains.

Bagley Lakes Trail was the third hike of the day, a beautiful 4 mile hike around a glacial lake in the valley between some mountains. By this time I had forgotten about any soreness and just plugged on and on enjoying the sights.

With enough energy left for one more 2.5 mile hike, I hit Horseshoe Bend on the way out. This was a nice riverside hike through woods with moss covered trees. A bit different than the previous hikes but enjoyable in its own way.

I had finished the day hiking more miles and hours than I ever had in a single day. I was sore and tired but thrilled with the start. That was encourging because I had another full day ahead. The last and heaviest rain of the trip came as I drove back to the hotel. Some great timing.

DAY 4 - NORTH CASCADES NATIONAL PARK

I awoke more than a little tired and sore but the crystal clear skies made it easy to get out and hit the trail. With an 1.5 hours of driving to get to my hiking area and another 3.5 hours of driving at the end of the day, I had no time to waste.

The drive alone was woth this trip; but I had multiple stops planned too. The first stop was the Diablo Lake Trail, a 5 mile hike along a beautiful lake to the top of a mountain. Unlike my previous hikes, there was little to see along the way because the trail took me far from the lake and into the tree cover. However, upon reaching the mountain top, I was greeted by a breathtaking view of the full lake and mountain peaks all around me. It didn't make for the best pictures because of the numerous powerlines leading to the dam's power station, but it was a sight I had to soak in for a good half hour before heading back to the car.

From there it was just a short drive to my next hike, Thunder Knob. This was a tiring hike with climbing for the entire 2 miles up to the peak. Until this point of my journey, I hadn't seen a single person on the trails. However, when I got to the peak, I ran into a young couple. The strangest part is they had a dog with a University of Georgia collar. Around home, this is almost an every day occurance but to see it thousands of miles away on an isolated trail, it made me laugh. We enjoyed the viewed, swapped tales of our adventures and I headed the 2 miles back downhill to the car.

The next stop was a simple overlook, not a hike, but it offered the most stunning views of Diablo Lake.

My last stop was a short 2 mile hike down to Ross Dam. I knew I was in trouble when it was painful walking down the steep trail. With almost 10 tiring miles of hiking already behind me on this day alone and a 3.5 hour car ride awaiting, I knew climbing back up that steep incline was going to be very difficult. With my most ambitious day awaiting me the next day, I did have thoughts of turning back. I continued the slog down, saw the dam and quickly turned back up. The climb was easily the toughest of the trip so far. I had to stop a couple of times for fear of falling due to exhaustion. I was barely concious of my surroundings until I had nearly reached the top and ran into to a couple of border patrol agents carrying M16 rifles. I figured their business was none of mine and simply said a casual "hello". Later I wondered why they were there, relatively far from the border. Was it a coincidence that this day was 9/11?

I jumped back in the car and hit the road, traveling back through Seattle and South towards my next destination, Mt. Ranier. I had heard that this towering mountain can sometimes be seen as far away as British Columbia on a clear day. I was 100 miles to the North of the mountain scanning the skyline when the mammoth peak caught me eye. WOW!

DAY 5 - MOUNT RANIER

Mount Ranier is a 14,500 foot stratovolcano the simply dominates the area. My plan was to hit two areas of the national park, Paradise and the White River Area. This would involve a lot of driving in addition to hiking but I was willing to do it based on all the reviews I had read and the hikes I had planned. Plus, my next day wasn't quite as hectic. I headed out just as early as I possibly could leaving the southern suburbs of Seattle behind.

The drive to Mount Ranier was beautiful as well. I had another gorgeous day with hardly a cloud in the sky. Unfortunately, as I got near the park I saw warnings of road closures ahead. They specifically referred to the passage I would need to get to the White River Area. The Ranger at the park entrance confirmed it for me and I was forced to reconsider my plans. After some time looking over maps of alternative routes, I decided the White River Area was not feasible. It would have added another 3 hours to my already strenous schedule and I simply couldn't justify that for the one hike I planned in the that area. Since I was pretty worn out from the previous few days, I opted not to add too much and instead simply extended one hike and took my time enjoying the area. I must have stopped at ten different vistas on the way up to the trails.

The aptly named Paradise area was simply amazing. It's a network of criss-crossing trails starting at about 5500 feet and leading up Mount Ranier across all sorts of terrain. Frankly, I could have spent a week in this area. Unlike my previous hikes, there were a lot of people in the area. I imagine that on summer weekends this place is packed.

My first hike was along the relatively easy, 2 mile long, Nisqually Vista Trail. Great views of the mountain as well as the tree and flower covered hillsides.

Next up was a series of 3 hikes tied together to create one 6 mile hike. I started up the steep Skyline Trail to the Alta Vista Trail. This was the steepest climb of my trip and went from about 5500 feet to about 6500 feet. My legs could really feel it on the way up and the thin air certainly made it challenging; but the view at the top was amazing. Even at the top of my hike, there was still 8000 feet of mountain in front of me! I came back down the Alta Vista Trail and my knees ached. Hiking down steep trails isn't so easy. From there I crossed over the Waterfall Trail for a nice look a waterfall backed by this huge mountain. After grabbing a brownie from the Paradise Inn, I drove to my hotel in Castle Rock, the nearest city to my next destination, Mount St. Helens.

I should have stayed in my car in Paradise, or slept on a trail or in a roadside ditch because the hotel in Castle Rock was a miserable experience. I should have turned away the moment I opened the door to the room and let loose a stench that was probably decaying flesh of the previous inhabitants. Too tired to move, I grabbed a book and their 1960s hotel chair and sat on the sidewalk reading as I attempted to air out the room. From there it was on to the local Mexican eatery. It had great service but the food left a lot to be desired. I returned to the stink filled to room to watch some TV before sleep to discover 1/3 of the 30 channels were in Hindi. Somehow I doubt most of the visitors in this area speak Hindi and it had more to do with the hotel staff. This made it all the harder to understand the rules of cricket.

All I needed was a good night sleep and the rest of the stay could have been ignored. Instead I woke up in the middle of the night with a burning rash covering half my body. I don't know if it was the detergent they used to clean the sheets, the disinfectant they used to clean up the blood stains or some weird contagion. If I had a little more energy I probably would have gone down to the front desk and strangled whoever was there. Instead, I covered myself in clothing and slept on top of the comforter for the remainder of the night.

To all future Mount St. Helens visitors. Skip Castle Rock. Stay in Kelso-Longview and trek back to the mountain. You've been warned!

DAY 6 - MOUNT ST. HELENS

I couldn't get out of that hotel quick enough. Even if they had a free breakfast, there was no way I would have eaten it. Ironically, I wasn't in much of a rush this day as I had low expecations for the Mount St. Helens area and less driving to do. However, I figured I rather risk my life next to an active volcano than stay in that seedy little town another minute.

Upon entering the "blast area", it was pretty clear this was a different kind of landscape. Not since my trip to Iceland had I seen areas that looked so much like a wasteland. Yet here, 30 years after the blast, were plenty signs of life. Brush has grown to cover much of the land and small trees poke up all around.

The visitors center reminded me very much of the volcano shelters I had seen in Japan. I'm guessing the facility had a dual purpose. Although I was a good 4-5 miles from the volcano itself, it was still an ominous sight seeing that living breathing volcano right in front of my eyes.

The day started out a little hazy but quite pleasant. The only thing to content with was very strong winds. I headed out on my first hike, the 4.5 mile Borderline Trail. This trail follows a ridge with great views of the Mount St. Helens crater. It was a fairly easy walk until reaching the end point. About 1/4 mile from the end the trail got treacherous. The trail underneath was composed of very loose rock; off to the side was 800 foot drop. As I got closer and closer to the end point, the trail got narrower and narrower, to about 2 feet across. With hikers headed both directions, some with big packs, it made passing very tricky. I passed one couple who had decided to turn back because it got worse. I plugged on thinking I could handle it. However, the stiff breezes combined with everything else made me have second thoughts. When a couple rocks from above passed by my head, I decided enough was enough. It's one thing for a volcanic blast to kill me, it's another thing to slide off a trail. It wasn't much of a disappointment because the view at the end was about the same as the view from where I was at. On to the next trail.

The Hummocks Trail was easy 2.5 mile hike through a primarily grassy area. I really didn't have high hopes for this hike but it produced a couple of my favorite pictures from my trip. This hike was supposed to be a good example of the post volcano rebirth and it lived up to that with plenty of plant life coming back to this once ash and rock covered area. I even got my one "encounter" with a bear as I saw a "brown rock" move in the distance, down by the river. Not wanting to be the stupid hiker who gets mauled taking pictures, I did as taught and kept moving.

The last stop in the area was Coldwater Lake. This lake was a former river dammed up by the debris after the Mount St. Helen's blast. It was a nice viewpoint but I decided to skip the hike and drive to  Portland before rush hour.

After getting to the hotel and checking in, I could have just collapsed but I realized that Thursday around 4PM might be the best time for me to hit Voodoo Doughnut, a place notorious for long lines. A quick hop on the train and the tasty treats were mine.

DAY 7 - COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE / MOUNT HOOD

I wasn't done hiking just yet. So, I got up early again and hit the road. I was taking another day to leave Portland and cover the Columbia River Gorge and Mount Hood. First up were two vista points, Women's Forum Park and Crown Point. Unfortunately my early departure meant a bit of fog over the river but it was still worth the stop.

After navigating around a road detour, I made it to my first hike of the day at Multhomah Falls, a spectacular double cascade waterfall that apparently everyone in the area must see. It was by far the busiest hike on my journey. It was a pretty steep 1.5 mile climb to the top of the waterfall, via a series of never-ending swtichbacks. As usuaul, the sight from the top of the waterfall paled in comparison to the one below but I did have a sense of accomplishment.

From there I stopped briefly at another waterfall, the Bridge of Gods, and Hood River park for lunch. Time was ticking fast and I knew I had another hike in front of me near Mount Hood.

Like Mount Ranier, Mount Hood is a stratovolcano towering over 11,000 feet and the tallest point in Oregon.  Unlike Mount Ranier, I really couldn't see it except in a few select places until I got to my hike to Mirror Lake. This particular hike was 2 miles uphill. It seemed strange climbing to get to a lake and after hiking close to 50 miles in the last few days, it wasn't easy. The trek was so worth it. There, framed by the lake and trees, was the gorgeous peak. With a crystal clear sky and smooth water, it was obvious how Mirror Lake got its name. This was an obvious Kodak moment (for those unfamiliar with Kodak, they used to make cameras and film and dominate the industry). Just a hike back down to the car and the non-urban hiking portion of my journey was complete.

DAY 8 - DOWNTOWN PORTLAND

Since my flight back to Atlanta didn't depart until 10 at night, I had a full day to explore Portland. Unfortunately, I couldn't find a lot that excited me. That doesn't mean I didn't like the city, quite the contrary. I could easily see myself moving there some day. I slept in, relaxed in the hotel, staying until 5 minutes before checkout, before hitting the city. This was is stark contrast to every other morning where I was racing to hit the road/trail.

I took the train into town and stopped at a place called Pioneer Courthouse Square. This local gathering place was full of people enjoying some sort of Mexican festival on this day. I relaxed and enjoyed the nice weather, dancing and "magic". From their it was on to the waterfront for a leisurely walk along the extensive park with views of the city's iconic bridges. I ended up at the Saturday Market where I got to eat from one of Portland's famous food trucks. I sat and watched the people (2/3rds hipsters) before walking to my last must see spot, Ground Kontrol.

To a pinball officianado, Portland is a great place to be. No town has more good places to play pinball. Atlanta with a metro population of roughly 6 million has less than 5 places with more than 2 pinball machines to play. It has zero locations with more than 5. In Atlanta, the best places to play are in collector's homes. Atlanta may be an extreme example but it is a lot closer to the norm than Portland is. Portland, in contrast, has a least 3 dozen locations with more than 5 machines and Ground Kontrol had 28 (in addition to 80 arcade games). I spent the better part of 2.5 hours dropping quarters and playing a lot of games I've rarely or never played. That's all my legs could stand after all the hiking.

I took my time getting back to my car at the hotel but still had a couple hours to kill before heading to the airport. I made a side journey to St. John's Bridge to take a few photos and went off to the airport. I did my best to sleep on the overnight back to Atlanta but had to use most of the next day to fully recover.

TRIP - WRAP-UP

The trip was an unbelievable success. I enjoyed every minute of it (minus Castle Rock) and would do it all again in a heartbeat. I saw some amazing sites and kept coming back to one word, breathtaking. I'd never hiked for more than 4 hours in one day and never did that much back to back. There were days on this trip where I hiked 10 miles and I hiked for 5 days in row, at altitude to boot. Add in some of the urban hiking and I easily covered 50 miles on foot. I dealt with temperatures ranging from 37F to 88F and a lot of isolation. Somehow, I survived it unscathed.

During the trip I took about 750 photos. It took me a couple weeks to go through them all, toss out 500 and tag the remainder. Out of that 750, I have about a dozen top-quality pictures, many of them featured here. Soon they will be adorning my walls.

I could easily go back to these same areas and hike some more. There are so many trails it makes my head spin; but chances are I'll explore somewhere else before returning. Where that will be, I'm not exactly sure but I know it won't be long until I'm planning again.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Recap

The horn has sounded and the confetti has fallen, the hockey season has come to an end. Even though they had a small hiccup (losing games 4 & 5 in the finals), the Kings march to be crowned champions was one of the most impressive runs in playoff history. They started each and every series by winning the first 3 games and they only lost one game on the road to Lord Stanley's Cup.

In the end the King's defense and goaltending overwhelmed the Devils. You could see the frustration building on their faces as the series went along. Although the Devils kept some of the games close, their was never much doubt about who controlled the gameplay.

At the start of the series I was less than impressed as a fan. The intensity that I'm used to seeing throughout the playoffs just wasn't there. With two disciplined teams playing what looked like a chess match, penalties were few and far between. Without the tension of the powerplay/penalty kill the hockey just wasn't very exciting. Sure, there was the drama of a couple overtimes but it certainly didn't match up the last few finals. Things did pick up as the series went along with games 4 & 5 very entertaining. It was very unusual watching clitching game 6 basically over by the end of the first period.

The Kings have officially arrived and I fully expect we'll see this team in the mix for years to come. In Quick they already have one of the best 3, if not the best, goaltenders in the world. He's still young and could get even better. That's scary. With Drew Doughty under contract, they've got a similar thing going on defense. The acquisitions of Carter and Richards bring strength and skill up front allowing everyone to fit into a role quite nicely. Finally, with many of these players signed to reasonable contracts, they should have the cap room to add even more pieces. Repeating is never easy and I'm far from prepared to make that prediction but it certainly wouldn't shock me if we saw this team playing in June again next year.

New Jersey has nothing to be ashamed of. Making it to the finals is no easy task and a team has to play some excellent hockey to get there. They've done a good job of adding youth to their roster over the last two years and the experienced they gained during this run is invaluable. The offseason is going to be a challenge though. With one of the owners facing bankrupcy, they are desperate for a new investor. In the meantime they need to sign their leader and best all around player, Parise. While he would probably love to stay in NJ, the real question is whether or not the Devils can afford him. There is also the looming question of Broduer's retirement. While I don't expect him to do so this summer, it isn't far away and the Devils have no one coming up that is capable of filling that hole.

Now to review my pick:

NEW JERSEY #6 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $500
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 6

Look at that, finally a perfect round. That brings me up to 7-8 for the entire playoffs $1130 vs my original $1000 for a profit of $130. That isn't very impressive but is actually pretty decent considering the hole I dug early on. To give it a little perspective, these same picks were entered into Norelco's Stanley Cup Challenge. In that I finished in 7665 out of 95813 entrants or top 8%.

I'm officially done tooting my horn.

So, the season is over. What will I do? I'm not done yet. I'm almost finished, Behind The Moves, a book about NHL general managers and how they've built the teams that play the game I love so much. I'm also knee deep in over analyzing the NHL free agent pool as the day for signing them is quickly approaching (July 1). I'll leave the draft analysis to the people who actually have an opportunity to watch those young prospects play. Maybe by next year's draft I'll have hired a scouting staff.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Finals

Looking back at round 3

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
Actual: NEW JERSEY in 6

In the end, I underestimated the Devils and overestimated the Rangers. The long series the Rangers played leading up to this matchup certainly affected their play. It is incredible hard to sustain high level of play for so many games. When a team plays the way the Rangers do, blocking shots and focussing on team defense first, it is especially hard. The Devils used this to their advantage by using by a relentless forecheck that forced the Rangers to think and act fast. With the Rangers playing on their heels for much of the series, they had more troubles creating offense.

In the end, Lunqvist simply couldn't carry the team to another series victory. Ranger fans and players will look back on this season as a golden opportunity lost. They were easily the most consistent team all season and had all the tools to win The Cup but came up short. On the positive side, I believe this team is actually a year ahead of schedule and will be even better next year. Krieder, who joined the team for the playoff run, is an exceptional talent and will be a nice addition to their young arsenal.

Again and again I underestimate the Devils. Heading into the season I had major questions about how the team would handle things on the defense with a goalie who's best days are behind him. I also wondered whether the team still had the drive and energy to sustain a long playoff run. Their performance thus far has taken away those questions. The infusion of quality youth in the lineup has shown why Lou Lamoriello is regarded as one of the best talent evaluators in the game. Parise is finally showing the entire continent why he is one the best players in the NHL and Kovalchuk is living up to the massive contract the Devils gave him. There are still questions about life after Broduer but they have shown they'll be a factor at least until he is gone.

PHOENIX #3 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $180
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 5

If there was anyone with a lingering doubt that LA was a serious contender to win The Cup, it had better be gone by now. Their run through the West Conference was historic. At no point was the team in any serious trouble of losing control of any series. Their defense, which played so well throughout the season, kept up the pace under the intense pressure of the playoffs. Their offense, so inept during the season, finally broke out. The series was a pleasure to watch because the team played with such efficiency and discipline at a very high speed. They consistently pushed back whenever Phoenix thought they had a bit of momentum.

Phoenix was in over their heads in the this matchup. They simply didn't have the horses to match up with offensive depth of Phoenix's lineup and Smith simply couldn't carry them any more. The reality is this team never should have made it this far. It is a credit to their coaching staff that they somehow managed to win 2 series. Here's hoping the fans will finally have a new owner committed to keeping the team in the desert.

Winning 1 and losing 1 leaves me at 6-8 total but I'm starting to regain some money. The $100 profit brings me back to $630 of my original $1000.

FINALS
NEW JERSEY #6 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $500

Although I'm going to pick LA based on their superior goaltending and defense, there are a couple things that I think may work against them. Although the number of games they have played is a plus, without facing much adversity, I'm a bit concerned they are a bit ill-prepared to face any that may come in the next 2 weeks. They talent level they have faced has been less than ideal and they could be a bit over confident. With over a week since their last game, they may face some difficulty getting back to top form early in the series.

However, it is a good thing for the Kings that they'll open the series on the road. If they were a bit out of sync, it is much better to lose on the road than at home. Given that they haven't lost on the road yet, just getting one in New Jersey will put them in a great position to win The Cup. By the time they return home to LA, they should be clicking once again.

What New Jersey has used the last two series against New York and Philadelphia will not work against the Kings. The heavy forecheck is not the way to beat the Kings. I see that as a dangerous way to play them as their defenders are much more adept at moving the puck and making fast decisions. Heavy pursuit will only lead to odd man advantages against the Devils.

In contrast, the Kings method of pressuring the points, specifically on the penalty kill should make the Devils less effective. Kovalchuk is known for turning over the puck and he'll have to be extra careful against the Kings.

For the Devils to have a chance, they must find a way to get to Quick early in games. The Kings are very comfortable playing a tight contest, just waiting for the opportunity to strike. Kovalchuk and Parise must be the superstars for the Devils and Broduer has to play as well as he has or better. Discipline will be key for both teams as neither can afford stupid penalties. The Devils not only need to score on their powerplay, they must not let the Kings get short-handed opportunities because they tend to bury those.

Keep an eye on the Devils fourth line. This may be the lone area where they have a slight advantage. For the Kings, simply watch Quick play in net. He is probably the NHL's best right now and is a pleasure to watch how easy he makes in look. If the Kings win, I expect he'll be named the Conn Smyth winner.

Here's hoping my final bet puts me back in the black.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

Special thanks to the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals for pushing their series to 7 games. The couple extra days provides me with an opportunity to get a jump on Round 3.

I did a little better this round but still not as well as I would like. The upsets just keep coming and another of my Cup finalists has been bounced.

Goaltending continues to be the focus of these playoffs and one of them will likely end up the Conn Smyth winner. But before you go and pencil in the winner to be the team with the best goaltending, don't forget that it takes at least a 4 goals to win a round.

Looking back on round 2.

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
Actual: NEW YORK RANGERS in 7

The Rangers took a bit longer than I expected but ended up on top primarily because their goaltending was just a tad better than the Capitals. In the Capitals defense, Holtby was seeing his first playoff action this year and got absolutely not support from the offense. For a team that was once a juggernaut on offense, it is a bit disturbing that they could must only 13 goals in a 7 game series. They'll certainly spend all summer kicking themselves for allow the Rangers to tie a game with less than 7 seconds left. Their improved play in the playoffs may have saved some jobs in Washington but the seriously need to consider who will lead this team going forward on an off the ice. I'll make the radical suggestion they should try to trade Ovechkin because stripping his captaincy is a difficult thing to do and he simply isn't captain material.

The only negative coming out of this series for the Rangers is the number of games they have played. They'll have to be prepared to play game 1 against the Devils in 48 hours against a well rested Devils team. They cannot afford to drop the first game at home because they are less than 100%. Fortunately for the Rangers they are relatively healthy.

PHILADELPHIA #5 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $90
Actual : NEW JERSEY in 5

The Flyers were exposed in this series. New Jersey did and excellent job of attacking the Flyers weakness and never letting up. While many might single of the enigmatic Bryzgolov as the source of the Flyers problems, the bigger problem was on defense. A quick physical forecheck by the Devils forced the defenders to make quick decisions and move the puck. The Flyers simply don't have the personnel on the back-end to deal with that. It was made worse by injuries to multiple defenders.

Meanwhile, the Devils continued to elevate their play. They are doing all the little things right. Everyone has adopted the team defense concept and it hasn't impacted their offense at all. The turnover on their roster the last couple of seasons has breathed new life into this team, perhaps just in time to get Broduer one more Cup.

The Flyers have great young group of players and they should have more chances to compete for the Cup in the next few years. All their talented offensive players play good defense, they just need to find a few more bodies on the back end. Also, during the summer, they'd be well-advised to find a good sports psychologist for Bryzgolov because he is going to be around for awhile whether they like it or not.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ST. LOUIS #2 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 7 - $25
Actual: LOS ANGELES in 4

I should have had more more faith in this pick. I think I was still trying to come to grips with how easily St. Louis dispatched with the San Jose Sharks. I've though all along that the Blues would play well, but they would eventually hit a brick wall due to their lack of team experience in the playoffs. It's a process teams have to go through and I expect they'll be back and better next season.

Everything seems to be going well for LA. All season long they suffered through and offensive drought despite have some decent offensive talent on the roster. Now the offense is clicking and the defense is just as strong if not stronger. They've been through this process before and were thus more prepared to handle the pressure of the playoffs than the Blues.

PHOENIX #3 vs NASHVILLE #4
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 6 - $130
Actual: PHOENIX in 5

I had the wrong read on this series. Everything that went right for Nashville in round 1 versus Detroit went bad for them against Phoenix. Sometimes when a team overcomes an obstacle early in the playoffs, they lose a bit of that drive in the next round. Detroit has always been Nashville's measuring stick and after beating them, they got a bit too comfortable. Phoenix was able to take advantage of that.

Despite my analysis that Phoenix was less skilled on just about every unit, they raised their level of play and ended up being superior on offense, on defense, on special teams and particularly in net. They are looking very much like the team that gave Detroit fits in the first round two years ago.

That's a pedestrian 2-2; not quite up to my expectations.

I lost $115 leaving me with only $530 of my original $1000.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80

The Rangers have everything that is needed to win a Stanley Cup. They've got leadership throughout the lineup, a roster of guys who play hard each and every shift and a coach who will tolerate nothing less. They are the best shot blockers in the league and frequently turn turnovers into scoring opportunities. With a strong presence in net the Rangers feel much more comfortable attacking when the opportunity presents itself. They are the number one seed for a reason.

The Devils have been one of the hottest teams in the league since early March and frankly it suprises me more than a little bit. If nothing else, the team has found a new hunger over the last 2 seasons. They have a nice balance of offense of defense and Broduer seems determined not to be the weak leak in what might be his last opportunity to win The Cup. They will have there hands full against a Rangers team who is much more disciplined the Devil's previous two opponents. Everyone has to buy into the team defense concept and not be caught on the ice for too long or in the wrong position. Keep tempers in check and keep Kovy scoring.

I know I'm going to get sick of hearing about how this is a replay of the famous 1994 7-game series between these two teams. Yes, it is the Rangers best team since that day (maybe better) but it is a different team. Whoever wins, I just hope it doesn't go seven games because I can stomach hearing too much about Messier's 1994 prediction. An athlete is bold or prophetic for predicting a win. He is simply cocky and stupid. Just play the game.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

PHOENIX #3 vs LOS ANGELES #8

Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 6 - $180

The teams with the best goaltending have risen to the top in the West and it has the makings of an excellent showdown. Since both teams come from the same division there will be a lot of familiarity between the foes and it shouldn't take long for intensity to reach peak level. Neither team is used to getting this far and they both face the challenge of trying to maintain the level of play they've had going the last 4 weeks.

Phoenix cannot win a high scoring affair and would be wise to play it very close to the vest and be opportunistic. Better to be safe than sorry. The Kings could look to push the pace a bit in an effort to get the Coyotes out of their game. But with as well coached as the Coyotes are, I don't think they'll bite. Look for a a number of low scoring contests with a couple more overtimes.

I'm picking the Kings because I believe that they are a notch better than the Coyotes on just about every unit. If that sounds familiar, it should because it was the same reason I picked the Predators over the Coyotes. The wildcard could be in net. Phoenix's goalie, Smith, has been spectacular. Then again, so has Quick. It may just come down to which one keeps that going.

That's a total of $260 bet. I need to save some for the finals. :)

I'll be back again at the end of this round. Until then I'll be enjoying the games and formulating a plan for life without hockey. Is the a southern hemisphere league???

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2

Time is incredibly short at the moment. It is only 45 minutes to the start of round 2 so I better get my picks in. I've got a busy weekend ahead so you'll have to excuse me if I don't take time to wrap up the previous round or provide much details about my picks for this round.

By Monday evening I'll come back and add that information. In the meantime, here's the quick version:

A look back at round 1. Three words I forgot to mention GOALTENDING, GOALTENDING, GOALTENDING. I truly thought going into the first round that each and every series would probably be decided by which goalie played best in net. I think that was pretty much the case in all of them. Even the offensive feast that was the Flyers - Penguins series, Bryzgolov outplayed Fluery when it mattered most.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160
Actual: NEW YORK RANGERS in 7 - WIN

This series was a little bit closer than I expected. Ottawa played terrific and their coaching staff has to be commended for having the team well prepared to face the Rangers. In the end the more talented team came out on top.

BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120
Actual: WASHINGTON in 7 - LOSS

If you would have told me before this series that Washington's goalie would outplay Boston's I would have told you you were insane. But that is precisely what happened. In addition, Washington somehow transformed themselves defensive team. For once, the forwards were doing their part and making the sacrifices necessary to win. Coach Hunter made a bold move reducing Ovechkin's ice time and forcing the team to rely on team defense. We'll see if that holds moving forward.

FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75
Actual: NEW JERSEY in 7 - WIN

This series had the lowest TV ratings by far and I can completely understand. I watched less of this series than any of the others. What I did catch though was pretty entertaining. Florida gave New Jersey all they could handle and frequently rebounded from early deficits. These teams were evening matched but neither is deep enough for a long playoff run. Florida's run just ended a little earlier than new Jersey's.

PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50
Actual: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - LOSS

I'm sure there were more than a few people entertained by this series. To me, it was almost a comedy of errors. One of the teams, Philadelphia, figured out how to play a little defense and came out on top because of it. The Penguins have to be kicking themselves about now. A golden opportunity was missed and they have no excuses for it. They we embarassed up and down the roster. Seeing Bryzgolov struggle at times wasn't a huge shock. See Fluery struggle the entire series was. The Penguins made the mistake of trying to play an up tempo game against the Flyers. It might be their strength, but it is Philly's as well. They would have been better serve to play it conservative be opportunistic. For that, coach Bylsma drops a notch in my ratings.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20
Actual: LOS ANGELESE in 5 - LOSS

Vancouver quickly (pun intended) found out why no one wanted to play Los Angeles to start these playoffs. All season long LA has been sound at defense and in net. During the last week of the season and in this series, they finally found their scoring touch. In contrast, Vancouver couldn't get anything going on offense and felt that replacing their goaltender was the appropriate solution??? Luongo's replacement was better than he was and probably created a quandry. The Canucks will want to trade Luongo but can't exactly do that until the re-sign Schneider. Schneider knowing that will likely command a big salary, something the Canucks were hoping to a avoid. The result of this series really didn't surprise me, I waffled quite a bit before picking the Canucks.

ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125
Actual: ST. LOUIS in 5 - LOSS

This series shocked me. Not so much that the Blues won but how easily they dispatched with a much more experienced team. There are some serious troubles in San Jose and every retooling they make seems to make the team worse. The Blues used their disciplined forecheck and team defense to smother the Sharks. This Blues team is going to be a force for years to come. I don't think they'll advance to the Cup this year but it won't be long.

PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40
Actual: PHOENIX in 6 - LOSS

Talk about an emotional roller coaster of a series. 5 of 6 games went to overtime and Chicago managed to tie 4 of the games in the last 5 minutes of the contest. In the end the Coyotes had the better goaltending and their offense delivered the most timely goals. Chicago still has some big holes in their lineup they haven't filled since the salary cap casualties post Cup win. Fortuantely, they have some youth in the pipeline.

NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0
Actual: NASHVILLE in 5 - WIN

Obviously, this one didn't end the way I want. I cannot say I'm surprised though. I refuse to use injuries as an excuse but I do think that losing Helm in game 1 had a big impact on the series. He filled a roll no other Wing could replace. Combine that with luck that just didn't go there way plus sound defense by the Predators and the Wings get bounced once again. However, it wasn't as lopsided as many suggest. All the games were close on the scoreboard and the Wings outplayed the Predators in a couple of their losses. The Predators deserved to win because Rinne was sensational and they were able to get the timely goals. There is a reason they were my pick for team from the West.

That's a terrible 3-5. One of my worst picking sessions in years. Good thing New York and New Jersey pulled out their game 7s.

$590 bet only $235 in winnings. I'm down $355 and have only $645 of my original $1000 to be on the next round.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80

The Capitals had better play the same way they did against Boston or the Rangers will make quick work of them. The Rangers are better than any other team at dicatating tempo and playing consistently. The Capitals will need to find a way to score against Lundqvist because a low scoring series favors the Rangers due to the inexperience in the Capitals net. Coach Hunter must find a way to get Ovechkin involved in the series without creating a defensive liability. I suspect the Rangers will come out on top based on the strength of their defense and goaltending. Washington is still the much more fragile team.

PHILADELPHIA #5 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $90

One of the few series where I do not think goaltending is the key. While neither goaltender can afford to play subpar, I don't expect either to steal the series. This one may end up being decided on the power play. New Jersey would be wise to stay disciplined as the Flyers power play sets the tempo for their team. Kovalchuk needs to play sound at both ends of the ice as turnovers will turn into quick goals by the talented Flyers offense. Look for Giroux to continue his tear help to put the series out of reach early. Jersey's next questions will be whether or not they can keep Parise in town and Broduer from heading to the retirement home.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ST. LOUIS #2 vs LOS ANGELESE #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 7 - $25

On paper, this looks like a series that could be very low scoring with lots of overtime contests but I have a feeling Los Angeles's offense is going to continue to produce. St. Louis's goaltending must continue to be their strength because scoring more than a couple goals a game against the Kings will be extremely difficult. Coach Hitchcock will have to do his best to keep his young roster in check as I think they'll be faced with more ups and downs than all season. The Blues must stick to the team first concept and work hard every shift. Goals for them won't be the pretty type so they'll have to get to the front of the net and fight for pucks in the corners.

PHOENIX #3 vs NASHVILLE #4
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 6 - $130

These two teams are very much alike. Each features excellent coaching, sound team defense and superb goaltending. Neither has superstars on offense but can get scoring from all over the lineup. Nashville has a bit more playoff experience but the Coyotes have seen a few series the last few years. But the way I see it, Nashville is notch better in every area. Rinne is better than Smith. Weber and Suter are better than anything Phoenix can put out there and Nashville's offense is more potent 5 on 5 and especially on the power play.

As I write this, Phoenix already has a 2-0 lead. Rinne and the Nashville defense hasn't been as effective as they were during the season or against the Wings. However, they haven't lost at home yet and it wouldn't shock me to see the Preds pull this on off.

A total of $325 bet.

Since my Eastern Conference Cup finalist, Pittsburgh is now out, I revise my pick to be Nashville vs New York with Nashville coming out on top. Pekka Rinne for the Conn Smythe. I know this looks a little off due to the status of the Nashville - Phoenix series but that's the choice I made a couple days ago.

I'll be back again at the end of this round. Until then, you know where I'll be, parked watching some hockey.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1

There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.

I'm adjusting my process a little bit. This year I'll take a fictional $1000 and bet it on the games. Each round I am forced to bet at least 50% of my remaining pool or $500 whichever is less. By examinging the bets you'll get a gauge of how much confidence I have in each of my choices.

Without further ado.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160

The Rangers have been one of the most consistent teams all season. The play together really well as a team and every player seems to know their role. Coaching is superb and goaltending may be the best in the league. My one concern was that the team hadn't dealt with any adversity. However, just before the season came to close, the Rangers had some minor struggles. They managed to overcome them showing the team has the ability and character to deal with the ups and downs that most teams go through during the playoffs. Their weakness might be their lack of playoff success. This should be the year they make a deep run but are the players ready for it.

What Ottawa did this season was nothing less than amazing. I, and many others, had they picked to finish dead last in the league. Instead, the veterans and youngsters responded quick well to a new coaching staff and philosophy. The emergence of the wonderkid on the blueline, Karlsson, seem to bring a new enthusiasm to the club. There are still questions in net and lack of grit they'll need to succeed in the playoffs. Playing against New York is not the ideal matchup. They have already succeeded far beyond any expectations. Winning a couple more games in the playoffs would be a great way to keep things rolling next year.

BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120

Boston should have had the #1 seed wrapped up long ago but started playing like they were thinking ahead to the playoffs. One week of struggles turned into two and two into 4 and suddenly Ottawa was breathing down their necks for the division title. Finally, Boston got things back in order and Ottawa settled back. This is much the same team that hoisted The Cup last year and has all the tools to repeat. With two good options in net, a maturing core and a collect of players more than willing to do the tough jobs, they'll be tough to topple.

Washington never found consistency after opening the season on an extended winning streak. Changing coaches didn't solve the problem and none of the three goalies could stop all the problems. Washington is team desperately in need of an identity beyond pretty playmakers. They lack grit and leadership throughout the lineup and when their stars don't score, there is no one there to pickup the slack. There is still enough offensive talent to create a scare for Boston but with injuries issues in net, they are at a major disadvantage. They'll likely have to steal game 1 to have any chance. If this team goes down in this series as I expect, I think we'll see major changes in the offseason. A team that should have been trending up is heading down quick.

FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75

Do not take this pick to mean I have a lack of respect for the Panthers. Honestly, I think they are a much better team than many give them credit for. It's a nice collection of players. There aren't many A-list superstars but they play well as a team. The problem is few of them have played together very long and they still working on an identity. Their goaltending has been exposed before and I suspect it'll get exposed again in the playoffs.

New Jersey is on a roll heading into the playoffs playing their best hockey in a couple of years. With more shrewed drafting they've managed to round out the roster quite well and there is plenty of experience to handle the playoff intensity. While I don't think they have the depth to reach the finals, they do have the tools to get past Florida and maybe upset another.

PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50

Everybody, including me, will be watching this series for all the intensity it should bring, all the offensive talent and to see if the Flyers finally have the goaltending to take it to the next level.

The Penguins were playing great before Crosby and Letang returned and with them they'll be even more dangerous and still pick to win The Cup. They've got everything a playoff team needs on offense, defense and in net. They can roll 4 lines and play just about any style. Coaching is top-notch and just about the entire team has been down this road before.

The Flyers are a bit of an enigma. On some nights they look like world beaters and on others they play like team that shouldn't be in the playoffs. Much of that can be attributed to the large roster turnover, injuries, youth on defense and stop me if you've heard this before, inconsistent goaltending. At least the goaltending stabalized before the end of the season. It had better stay that way because they'll need it to be stellar to pull off the upset.

The reality is I think the Flyers stand the best chance of any Eastern team to bounce the Penguins from the playoffs. That's because I don't think any other team can score enough goals to keep up. They'll have to do it while maintaining their emotions though as killing penalties is the recipe for disaster. Winning one of the first two in Pittsburgh would help a lot but getting shutdown goaltending would do even more.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20

Vancouver had their shares of struggles this season but their deep roster finally came together and had a nice run towards the end of the season to grab the #1 overall seed. But coming off a Stanley Cup final loss means the regular season was just about pointless. How they do now will determine how successful they are. No other team faces higher expectations in these playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if they come out tight in the first round where they'll probably be most vulnerable.

Luongo had a another good season but there were more than a couple of stretch where backup Schneider outperformed him. You'd think the coaching staff would have Luongo on a very short leash this postseason. They cannot afford to struggle when there are plenty of other teams ready to take advantage. Secondary scoring will be key for the Canucks, especially against a Kings team that frustrates teams routinely.

The Kings should be happy they made the playoffs but shouldn't be satisfied. Ownership made a huge commitment to the team in the offseason and they responded by being inconsistent as a whole and pathetic on offense. Fortuantely, they have very good defense and excellent goaltending to compensate. But if the team cannot find a way to score more goals in the playoffs, it'll be another short run. They must attack Luongo destroy confidence. He's a completely different goalie playing from behind.

I wanted to pick this series for LA and it wouldn't surprise me if they won it. In the end though I thought Vancouver's experience, determination and home ice edge would give them the victory.

ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125

I've talk before about the process. Before a team can have success in the playoffs, they typically have to go through some struggles. The adversity teaches them what it takes to win in the playoffs. The intensity level that dominates the playoffs is difficult to simulate with regular season play. A team must focus more than ever on team defense and rely on its goaltending to succeed.

Although the Blues do not possess the playoff experience to match the Sharks, they do have a team built for the playoffs. They play better as a team than anybody in the league and have had stellar goaltending all year long. They've got a coach with plenty of experience and the grit to hang with the bigguns.

They'll have their hands full with San Jose. A big physical team with plenty of top-end talent. From a physical standpoint they are designed for the playoffs. It's their mental makeup that has come into question from time to time, including this regular season. There are also questions in net that'll probably keep them from getting to the finals once again. St. Louis is a tough place to play and will surely be fired up for their first home game in years. If San Jose can just keep in close, I expect they'll grab a victory in one of the first two games and use it as motivation to finish off the higher ranked Blues. Don't fret Blues fans, they'll be back in the mix for years to come.

PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40

Phoenix couldn't have asked for a much better matchup. Then again, Chicago is probably thrilled with it as well. Neither team has been dominant this season yet both enter the playoffs on somewhat of a roll.

This really might be the last hurrah for the Coyotes as the city is balking at paying the $20M plus is supposedly owes to the NHL. NHL owners have frequently said they are tired of owning the team and no local owner has stepped up to the plate. That being said, I hope something positive happens on the Phoenix front because the moving of teams is only a temporary solution.

The Coyotes played a well disciplined game built around strong defense, solid goaltending and opportunistic offense. The better keep that methodology working because Chicago is bound to throw a lot of pucks at them.

Chicago comes in playing some of the best hockey of the season and is capable of scoring a lot of goals. Their problems are on defense and in net where inconsistency kept them in the from capturing a higher seed. The biggest question may be whether or not Towes can return because with him they are a much more effective team. Overall I give them the edge because I'm not convince Smith and the Coyotes can keep the Hawks off the scoreboard.

NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0

For only the second time in 21 years the Wings start the first round on the road. This could actually be a blessing in disguise. For an experienced team, their is a ton of pressure to win the first one at home. Losing it immediately puts the host team behind the eight ball. As the playoffs roll on, that pressure reduces a bit as teams settle into their playoff mode.

Nashville is a beast of a team. Built from the net out and around a philosophy where the coach creates clear roles for his players and they are all expected to chip in. Nashville finally got the monkey off their back last year when they won their first playoff series. Now the expectation go up as just winning one won't cut it. Fortunately for fans of the Predators, they have all the pieces for a long run. One of the best goaltenders in the league couple with the best defensive first pair.

The real surprise is just how effective the Predators have been at scoring. They've always had a nice collection of grinders but now they've got some finishers to go along with it. Finally getting Radulov to return from Russia might just be the key that pushes them deeper yet.

But before the Predators can start celebrating, they'll have to dispatch a team that has been doing it for decades. The Red Wings await the Predators and won't go down without a fight. Many have proclaimed their reign over before only to see them dig deep and find a way to stay on top. Although the Wings have struggled recently to overcome several injuries, the Wings were as good as any team in the NHL at one point during the season. They are much healthier now and better defensively then they were last season. Goaltending is still strong and the weapons up front are still there. Zetterberg is playing his best hockey of the season, Filpula and Hudler are having career years and Datsyuk still sees and does things normal humans can barely comprehend.

The key to this series may be special teams. Nashville is a much better powerplay and penalty killing team than Detroit. Unless Detroit improves their special teams, they won't advance. Howard must be Rinne's equal and Franzen must find the back of the net.

I just think the Predators have too much going for them and Detroit has too many things that'll have to go right quickly. If Detroit can get past this round, I think they are a serious contender to make it to the finals. Unfortunately, I just think the Predators will be ready from the first puck drop.

If the Wings fall, many will ready to call their run over. It happened each time they previously lost in the first round and the media will be itching to do it again. But with more talent in the pipeline, quality ownership, great management and good coaching, they'll still be around for years to come. They may not be as dominant, but they'll still be a factor.

I'm not placing any bet on this series because I don't want to bet against my favorite team. I just don't like feeling any satisfaction or getting any reward based on their losing.

LOOKING AHEAD

No playoff prediction would be complete without picking the eventual winner. In the beginning of the season I picked Pittsburgh over San Jose. I see no reason to go against Pittsburgh at this time. Looking at the West and how the matchups might play out, I'll go with Nashville to represent the West.

Pittsburgh over Nashville

Marc-Andre Fluery as Conn Smyth winner.

Total Bet: $590

NHL Predictions - A Look Back

The playoff fun is about to begin. If the race leading up to the playoffs is any indication, we are in for a dandy. There is a ton of parity in the NHL and the teams seeding at the top are not that much better than the ones seeded at the bottom.

Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared.

It's been a long a tough season for me. After attending 40+ games last year, I was only able to attend 2. Traveling to Nashville is a bit more difficult than traveling downtown. I barely wear my Thrashers gear in public because it pains me everytime someone calls it a collectable or reminds me that the team is gone. I cannot walk by Philips Arena without almost shedding a tear. The pain still runs deep and it disgusts me to see the press and NHL fans blame the loss of the team on anything other than the bonehead ownership group.

Despite my depression over the situation, I'm still watching the NHL and enjoying the game. There was a lot to like this year. I cannot remember a season full of so much inconsistency. Just about every good team went through long stretches where they struggled. Some of the leagues biggest stars were missing or inefficent but there were plenty of others to take up the slack.

I managed to pick 5 of 8 playoff teams in the East with New Jersey, Florida and Ottawa replacing Buffalo, Carolina and Tampa Bay. In the West I picked a whopping 7 of 8 teams with only Phoenix replacing Anaheim.

The biggest surprises had to be Washington, Ottawa, St. Louis, San Jose, Florida and LA. Each of those situations showed just how important coaching can be. Washington, San Jose and LA saved a lot of face in the last couple of weeks but still have a long way to go to call their season a success. Ottawa and Florida were the feel good stories of the season and will now get to see just how much harder it is to succeed in the playoffs.

While I'm surprised at St. Louis's overall record, I'm not surprised they have improved dramatically. They've been on the cusp for the last couple of years but injuries, maturity and goaltending have set them back. When all three of those came together along with a coach perfect for the situation, they climbed fast. Now it is on to the next challenge, winning a series or two.

Watching Detroit was a roller coaster ride. A nice winning streak to start the season, followed by a losing streak, followed by a record-breaking home winning streak, followed by a series of injuries and late season struggles. I think they can still be just as dangerous as any other NHL team but getting everything going in time will be a challenge.

NHL Storylines

The eight and final installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

The regular season is over. season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.

San Jose - Apr 5/7 vs Los Angeles - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.

Pretty spot on about the importance of this series. Turns out Phoenix spoiled the party by winning the division. The games were very entertaining and certainly set the tone for the playoffs ahead. These two teams have had a difficult time this year maintaining any consistency for different reasons. Both will hope to turn it around in the coming weeks. I cannot remember a time where the 7 & 8 seeds were as dangerous as this year.

Buffalo - Apr 7 at Boston - Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.

The challenge became too much for Buffalo to overcome. If nothing else it served notice to the Sabres that games in the first half of the season are just as important as those in the second. For all the effort the Sabres put forth in the second half, they still came up short.

Edmonton - Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?

Edmonton did improve quite a bit this year and probably could have taken greater strides if they hadn't suffered so many injuries. There is still a lot of work to do on the defensive side and a more reliable goalie will have to be found. It won't be an easy task getting free agents to come to Edmonton.

NHL Storylines

The seventh installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

The season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.

Florida - Mar 17 vs Buffalo - After this game the Panthers finish with 9 of 12 on the road. Any hope of making the playoffs depends on being firmly in on Mar 17.

Florida was in first place in the division on March 17th but Washington and "another team" weren't far behind. Two weeks later the Panthers have almost wrapped up the division primarily because neither Washington or the "other team" can't find any consistency.

Chicago - Mar 21/25 - home games against Vancouver and Nashville should test just how playoff ready the squad is.

Chicago eeked out an OT Win against Vancouver but followed it up with a very poor showing against a Predator team they desperately needed to beat. It was mirror of Chicago's entire season. Keep playing that way and they'll have a tough time winning 7 game series.

Columbus - Mar 26/28 - home and home with a Detroit team that usually has its way with the Jackets. Have things really changed?

Columbus got blasted in the first of these two games as the Wings toyed with Columbus's shallow and defensively challenged lineup. Columbus responded to the beatdown by winning the second game but there is still a lot of work ahead. Columbus may be at the bottom of the NHL for a long time.

Elsewhere around the league

New York Rangers - The team may look back on early/mid March as the point that defined their season. They suffered a bit of a setback, dropping multiple games and suffered their first significant injuries of the season. Now back to their winning ways there are only a win or two away from securing the top seed and prepared for a long playoff run.

Boston - If the Bruins hadn't built such a big lead, more people would be talking about an epic collapse. Somehow they even yield first in the division to Ottawa for a day. Things are going better lately but they'll need to find that mid-season magic to have a deep playoff run. One of the few teams that hasn't suffered significant injuries.

Pittsburgh - On a roll and looking like the team to beat come playoff time. Crosby returned just in time to be going full steam come the playoffs. I see no reason to waver from my preseason prediction for them.

Philadelphia - Injuries have taken their toll but they are still in the thick of it thanks to much improved goaltending. Now out with an injury, the Flyers hopes of a deep run may hinge on Bryzgolov's quick return.

Buffalo - I'll admit, I was one of those that left the Sabres for dead. Frankly, they've benefited hugely from the lack of consistency among the East's bottom dwellers. They picked a good time to get hot, but are still in a battle just to make the playoffs. Will they have anything left when they get there.

Washington - This team is a pathetic. There is no excuse for them being so low in the standings based on the talent on the roster. It is simply a matter of desire to do the little things that the Caps don't have. Some hard choices ahead for management unless they somehow sneak in and win some playoff games.

St. Louis - All this team does is win and they do it by playing together as a team and making a commitment to defensive hockey. Huge props go to Hitchcock for getting the most out of this group. Playoffs are a different animal so it'll be interesting to see how the team handles it. They'll start at home and better get off to a go start.

Vancouver - It's tough playing hard when you've got little to play for. They are having real difficulty putting up points but at least the defense and goaltending is still strong.

Detroit - A ridiculous amount of injuries to three of their best players (Datsyuk, Lidstrom and Howard) led to an extended losing streak that killed any chance of winning the division. Starting to get healthy they should be in better shape come the playoffs. They had better be as the competition is going to be tough from game 1.

Nashville - Made the best moves at the trade deadline and are looking like a serious contender to win The Cup. Nothing seems to phase this team and the addition of Radulov will create matchup problems. I may have to set aside some time and cash to catch a playoff game or two.

Pacific Division - For what seems like months I've been watching this division race to see which team would take control. Here we are with 6 games left and only 2 points seperating 4 teams. San Jose has a big advantage in that they play all the other contending teams. Keep an eye out for the weekend finale where LA and San Jose meet twice in final 3 days and don't forget that the Kings stole an extra point due to a clock error in a game against Columbus.



April 7th is the last game of the season. I know where I'll be parked.

NHL Storylines

The sixth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

With the trade deadline looming this Monday, several teams have tough decisions to make. The moves teams make now will not only dictate their short-term future but will have an impact for seasons to come. Sometimes the best move is no move at all. Other times it is imperative a team embraces the reality of their shortcomings and starts planning for the future by making moves NOW!

Ottawa - Feb 3 vs New York Islanders - After playing 9 of 10 on the road, the Senators fate will probably be sealed. Check the roster and see how many players remain or are headed out of town.


The surprise team of the season appears to have a playoff spot locked up. Originally I would have expected this team to be a seller and continue the rebuild. Instead, they could add a piece or two. They must be very careful though. This is not a team ready to compete for The Cup. No need to break from the plan and give up and prospects. My advice is to stand pat. The only exception might be to obtain a goalie to make up for the injury suffered by Anderson.

Detroit - FEb 8 Edmonton - No, it isn't the opponent. At this point the Wings will have finished a brutal stretch of 21 of 31 on the road (WTF!). Their record at this time should be a good indicator of whether they can win the division, conference or the Cup. It's also a time the Wings start looking for a deal if they don't quite measure up.


The Wings came out of that brutal road stretch at or near the top of the division, conferene and league thanks to improved defense, strong goaltending and excellent depth. From their things only got better as they continued to pile up wins at home winning 24 in a row. With plenty of more home games to go and tougher stretch for the main pursuers, the Wings are in terrific position to get one of the top two spots. Only Vancouver and St. Louis stand in their way. The Wings made another shrewd move to acquire more defensive depth (Quincy) and now have the best group in the league again. With plenty of salary cap space available, they might not be done. They could stand pat and still be a threat. Add another gritty or skilled forward would scare the crap out of other teams.

MIN Feb 9 vs Vancouver - Back from a long stretch of road games (14 of 20) to play division rival. Are they still in the race?

How the Wild have a tumbled. Once a near lock to make the playoffs, they are now in a position where they'll have to win a majority of their games to have a shot at the #8 seed. The smart move is to start moving players for future assets because even if they make the playoffs, they won't be their long. By finally moving Zidiliky maybe they are embracing that mentaility.

PHX Feb 13 vs Vancouver a brutal homestand against some of the best the NHL has to offer has ended. Has the Coyotes brief rise already ended?

There is good news in the desert. After spending most of the season trying to gain some consistency, the Coyotes have gone a 9-0-1 run to put themselves into the #7 spot. Rumors are also circulating that a buyer for the team is about ready to seal the deal. But success ca be fleeting. The Coyotes are in a dogfight with 5 teams for the final 2 spots in the West and they've been down this ownership path before. With league in control of the budget, they probably won't add any significant pieces. Fans can only hope they keep their good players in place.

NYR Feb 16. The Rangers finish off a set of games against Philly, New Jersey, Tampa, Philly, Washington, Boston and Chicago, a real test against rivals and some of the league's best.

The Rangers continue to prove they are one of the best in the NHL. Full credit for this rise must go to the coach. The Rangers could use some more offense and have their eyes on Nash. This is move they need to be extremely careful about. With such good chemistry, moving the wrong piece in return could spell trouble. Columbus is going to want significant assets and if I'm Rangers management, I wait until the offseason to make this bold move.

TBL Feb 18 vs Washington. Tampa Bay gave the Caps fits in the division last year and we should know where that race stands at this point.

I applaud the Lightning for honestly accessing their situation and starting to move players for assets now rather than chasing the longshot at making the playoffs. The decision was probably easier to make since management overexceeded expectations last year. The Capitals are almost the opposite. Given the high expectations and closeness to the #8 seed, they need to make a move. Frankly, they have waited too long. I've got to wonder if they should make a really bold move to reshape the roster for the future. Nobody has mentioned it, but it might be worth thinking about moving Ovechkin. Ideally that would be after the season but that doesn't mean they shouldn't explore it now.

ANA Feb 23 at Carolina - End of a tough 8 game road trip. If they are still in the hunt at this point, they are in great shape.

Anaheim is a good example to use to point out just how difficult it is to move up in the NHL standings. This team has been on a tear for well over two months now. As much as they've worked their way back into the playoff discussion, they are still 6 points out with 5 teams in their way. They'll have to keep up their almost unbelievable pace the rest of the way to secure the #8 seed. Even with a favorable schedule, I wouldn't bet on it. After fighting this hard, they cannot give up and trade assets even though it might be in their best long-term interest.

THE FOLLOWING HAVEN'T COME TO PASS YET BUT ARE FOCUSSED ON MONDAY's TRADE DEADLINE

SJS Feb 28 vs Philly - A 9 game round trip ends with a test again revamped, young Philly roster. A good measuring stick.

So far, this road trip has not been good to the Sharks. A team that was in position to battle for the first or second seed appears could lose the division or even get knocked from the playoffs. With LA making signficant moves, San Jose is looking add pieces. Malone was a good start and rumors are they are interested in Nash. They need one more piece. The clock is ticking.

**** TRADE DEADLINE ****

COL Mar 3 vs Pit - Many road games after this one before the trade deadline. Will the Avalanche be tempted to trade more assets again?

The Avalanche are a border team and in a tough situation. They could certainly use the money of a playoff series. But the reality is they do not stack up well against a round 1 opponent and should be focused on the future. Moving some depth at defense (Quincy) for some grit up front (Downie) shouldn't be the only move.

CAR Mar 6 at Washington - After a nice home stretch the Canes hit the road for 12 of their last 17. If they aren't firmly in the playoff race at this point, their season is over. Schedule makers were not friendly to the Canes.

The Canes have been out of the race for months now and handling things quite well. They've explored the trade market and decided wisely that keeping some of their assets by signing them to new deals was best for the future. I'm sure they'll continue to take calls. With a couple good draft picks over the last few seasons, the Canes may be back in the hunt much quicker than expected.

DAL Mar 6 at Vancouver - end a Western Canada trip right before the trade deadline. Will the Stars unload more talent in hopes of restocking the roster?

Much like Colorado, this team is in the race, but simply ill-prepared for a round 1 playoff series. They've made a couple moves for the future and should be making more.

NAS Mar 10 vs Detroit - Heading into the trade deadline this division rivalry could determine whether the Predators are buyers or sellers.

I'll be in attendance for this particular game in two weeks and cannot wait for what I assume will be a playoff like atmosphere. Nashville is clearly in the playoff picture and has the pieces in place for an extended playoff run. They've already fortified a strong defense with Hal Gill and would probably like a little more scoring up front. They'll have trouble making any move that adds cash as they still need to re-sign Weber and Suter in the offseason. Keep an eye on them on trade deadline day.

CAL Mar 13 vs San Jose - The trade deadline looms. Are the Flames willing to embrace the rebuild now?

I keep harping on this team and I won't stop now. They live in a world of illusion that makes them think making the playoffs is their ultimate goal. A team that should be doing every thing they can to fix their future, keeps giving it away for a brief run now. If they do it again on Monday, management should be fired. It is only another year or two until Iginla and Kiprisoff are gone. Then what?

NJD Mar 15 - Trade dealine. Will Broduer consider a move to a contender for another shot. It is hard to predict who that contender might be because goaltending is pretty locked up for most. But make no mistake about it, the call will be Broduer's to make.

Fortunately for Devil's management, they are in the thick of the playoff race and don't have to worry about facing this decision. I honestly don't think the Devils stand much chance in the playoffs but with the inconsistency of all but the Rangers in the East, any team might go on a run.

The Devils made a big move yesterday to acquire Zidlicky but the cost was BIG. I've got to wonder whether that was a move for the future Devils or one to give Marty one last shot.

TOR Mar 15 - Trade Deadline - See if Burke can add some significant pieces because the fans are getting restless.

Burke has to be dying to make a move but is also smart enough to know his team isn't quite ready to compete in the playoffs. If the right move comes along, he won't hesitate to make it but I wouldn't be shocked if he stands pat even if it means missing the playoffs again.

LAK Mar 16 at Anaheim - The end of 15 of 20 on the road and right near the trade deadline. Is the team ready for playoff level hockey?

No team needed to make a move more than LA. Game after game their defense and goaltending would hold their opponent in check only to see their offense score 0 or 1 goals leading to a loss. They desperately needed some offense. They finally pulled the trigger adding Carter at a big price. They should have made this move weeks ago. Will Carter be enough to get them to the playoffs and make some noise. That's what is expected in LA or the season is a bust. Keep on eye on them to see if they make another move because they have some more assets they could move.

Elsewhere around the league

A couple more teams to keep an eye on come Monday's trade deadline:

Philadelphia - I believe their moves are done but many seem to think they'll add another goalie. At what cost?

Boston - They have the assets to make a move and might want to adjust based on their less than ideal play over the last month.

Buffalo - They really need to move a few assets to start the retooling necessary. Offseason moves were a disaster. Will they wait for new management before making more moves.

Florida - An overachieving team shouldn't be diverting from their plan for the short-term. Standing pat is the best move by Tallon isn't one to watch when moves start happening.

Chicago - Their recent winning streak shouldn't mask the problems the Hawks have on defense. With many of the best assets already gone, Chicago may have to overpay for scraps in hopes of improving a spot that'll get exposed come May.

NHL Storylines

The fifth installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.

Edmonton - Jan 7 at Dallas - end of a 7 game road trip and about the halfway point of the season. Are the Oiler near .500? .400?


Edmonton is struggling, sitting at about .440 after a big win against Chicago last night. It hasn't help that each of their young stars has been absent for one or more games over the last couple of months. The are positive signs from this group but there is still a long way to go. No point mortgaging the future at this point but if a couple veterans can be moved for future assets, preferably ones ready to play at the NHL level, they might as well get started.

Columbus - Jan 14 vs San Jose - This game concludes a tough stretch (Washington, San Jose, LA, Anaheim, Chicago, Phoenix, San Jose) which should be a good measuring stick to see if Columbus is significantly improved.

Columbus went 2-5 in that stretch and didn't look even decent in most of the games. Columbus is the worst team in the NHL. It isn't even close. Its a bit surprising given they made some really decent moves in the offseason and it has to be demoralizing to the hometown fans. Now, talk is that they would mind out from the Carter contract. Frankly, moving him for more pieces would be a good thing.

New York Islanders - Jan 10-19. Dates against Detroit, Philly, Buffalo, Washington and Philly in a little over a week will really test the roster. If they have truly grown, they'll show it here. Otherwise, its "maybe next year" again.

The Islanders went 4-1 in this stretch of games, playing their best hockey of the season. Tavares is finally showing why he was rated so high since he laced then up as a junior many seasons ago. Unfortunately for the Islanders this all comes way to late to salvage a shot at the playoffs this season. But, if they can continue to compete, it should be a nice confidence boost entering next season. The Islanders are still a few pieces away from being in the mix.

Chicago - Jan 20 vs Florida - Afer this game the Blackhawks head on a 9 game road trip. They need to be in the thick of the race before then or making the playoffs may be tough.

Well, the home friendly schedule has come to an end and the Blackhawks are playing some really inconsistent hockey lately. While the teams around them seem to finding their groove, the Hawks have regressed and played sloppy defense just about every other night. The road trip got off to a bad start with an overtime loss in Vancouver and got worse with an 8-4 beatdown by the lowly Edmonton Oilers. They need to find their 60 minute game on this roadtrip or they'll be out of the division race and face a much tougher task come playoff time.

Elsewhere around the league

Florida - The Panthers are hanging tough despite the Capitals biting at their heals. They may have to win the division to get into the playoffs so their upcoming slate of divisional games is the key to their season.

Calgary - A trade with Montreal may have worked. With such a close race for the final spot in the West, this could be the move that gets them in. But don't expect that run to last long as this team is miles behind the West elite.

Pittsburgh - Just when it looked like this team had started a free-fall to a position out of the playoffs, Malkin took the team on his back and carried them to an 8 game winning streak. Back in the thick, they'll hope and wait for Crosby to return. In the meantime they better stay focussed or they'll tumble again.

Nashville - The more I see of this squad, the more I think they could seriously contend for The Cup. One more offensive piece could do wonders for this team. However, with Suter and Weber still awaiting new contracts, they probably aren't going to add much payroll. Which ever team faces this team in round 1 will have their hands full.

Last time I looked at the current standings with an eye towards the playoffs and speculated that any team 10 points in front pretty much had a playoff spot locked up and any team more than 10 point out was done. With another month completed, 8 is now the magic number:

VIRTUAL LOCKS
-------------
New York Rangers
Boston
Philly

Detroit
Vancouver
San Jose
Nashville
St. Louis
Chicago

OUT
--------------
Tampa Bay
Buffalo
New York Islanders
Montreal
Carolina

Anaheim
Edmonton
Columbus

The West is just about set. I fully expect to see LA join the crowd over the next couple of weeks. That would leave several teams (Minnesota, Dallas, Colorado, Calgary and Phoenix) fighting for a single spot. Let's see how many of those are left at the end of February.

Meanwhile in the East, there are probably 4 spots in play with 6-7 teams looking to fill them. The real kicker is the Southeast Division where the winner will probably claim the #3 seed but the loser could miss out completely yet be only a couple points behind the division leaders.

The race is heating up. Everyone must elevate their play.

Next installment will hopefully be before the trade deadline. The next couple weeks will determine the buyers and sellers.