There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.
I'm adjusting my process a little bit. This year I'll take a fictional $1000 and bet it on the games. Each round I am forced to bet at least 50% of my remaining pool or $500 whichever is less. By examinging the bets you'll get a gauge of how much confidence I have in each of my choices.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160
The Rangers have been one of the most consistent teams all season. The play together really well as a team and every player seems to know their role. Coaching is superb and goaltending may be the best in the league. My one concern was that the team hadn't dealt with any adversity. However, just before the season came to close, the Rangers had some minor struggles. They managed to overcome them showing the team has the ability and character to deal with the ups and downs that most teams go through during the playoffs. Their weakness might be their lack of playoff success. This should be the year they make a deep run but are the players ready for it.
What Ottawa did this season was nothing less than amazing. I, and many others, had they picked to finish dead last in the league. Instead, the veterans and youngsters responded quick well to a new coaching staff and philosophy. The emergence of the wonderkid on the blueline, Karlsson, seem to bring a new enthusiasm to the club. There are still questions in net and lack of grit they'll need to succeed in the playoffs. Playing against New York is not the ideal matchup. They have already succeeded far beyond any expectations. Winning a couple more games in the playoffs would be a great way to keep things rolling next year.
BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120
Boston should have had the #1 seed wrapped up long ago but started playing like they were thinking ahead to the playoffs. One week of struggles turned into two and two into 4 and suddenly Ottawa was breathing down their necks for the division title. Finally, Boston got things back in order and Ottawa settled back. This is much the same team that hoisted The Cup last year and has all the tools to repeat. With two good options in net, a maturing core and a collect of players more than willing to do the tough jobs, they'll be tough to topple.
Washington never found consistency after opening the season on an extended winning streak. Changing coaches didn't solve the problem and none of the three goalies could stop all the problems. Washington is team desperately in need of an identity beyond pretty playmakers. They lack grit and leadership throughout the lineup and when their stars don't score, there is no one there to pickup the slack. There is still enough offensive talent to create a scare for Boston but with injuries issues in net, they are at a major disadvantage. They'll likely have to steal game 1 to have any chance. If this team goes down in this series as I expect, I think we'll see major changes in the offseason. A team that should have been trending up is heading down quick.
FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75
Do not take this pick to mean I have a lack of respect for the Panthers. Honestly, I think they are a much better team than many give them credit for. It's a nice collection of players. There aren't many A-list superstars but they play well as a team. The problem is few of them have played together very long and they still working on an identity. Their goaltending has been exposed before and I suspect it'll get exposed again in the playoffs.
New Jersey is on a roll heading into the playoffs playing their best hockey in a couple of years. With more shrewed drafting they've managed to round out the roster quite well and there is plenty of experience to handle the playoff intensity. While I don't think they have the depth to reach the finals, they do have the tools to get past Florida and maybe upset another.
PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50
Everybody, including me, will be watching this series for all the intensity it should bring, all the offensive talent and to see if the Flyers finally have the goaltending to take it to the next level.
The Penguins were playing great before Crosby and Letang returned and with them they'll be even more dangerous and still pick to win The Cup. They've got everything a playoff team needs on offense, defense and in net. They can roll 4 lines and play just about any style. Coaching is top-notch and just about the entire team has been down this road before.
The Flyers are a bit of an enigma. On some nights they look like world beaters and on others they play like team that shouldn't be in the playoffs. Much of that can be attributed to the large roster turnover, injuries, youth on defense and stop me if you've heard this before, inconsistent goaltending. At least the goaltending stabalized before the end of the season. It had better stay that way because they'll need it to be stellar to pull off the upset.
The reality is I think the Flyers stand the best chance of any Eastern team to bounce the Penguins from the playoffs. That's because I don't think any other team can score enough goals to keep up. They'll have to do it while maintaining their emotions though as killing penalties is the recipe for disaster. Winning one of the first two in Pittsburgh would help a lot but getting shutdown goaltending would do even more.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20
Vancouver had their shares of struggles this season but their deep roster finally came together and had a nice run towards the end of the season to grab the #1 overall seed. But coming off a Stanley Cup final loss means the regular season was just about pointless. How they do now will determine how successful they are. No other team faces higher expectations in these playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if they come out tight in the first round where they'll probably be most vulnerable.
Luongo had a another good season but there were more than a couple of stretch where backup Schneider outperformed him. You'd think the coaching staff would have Luongo on a very short leash this postseason. They cannot afford to struggle when there are plenty of other teams ready to take advantage. Secondary scoring will be key for the Canucks, especially against a Kings team that frustrates teams routinely.
The Kings should be happy they made the playoffs but shouldn't be satisfied. Ownership made a huge commitment to the team in the offseason and they responded by being inconsistent as a whole and pathetic on offense. Fortuantely, they have very good defense and excellent goaltending to compensate. But if the team cannot find a way to score more goals in the playoffs, it'll be another short run. They must attack Luongo destroy confidence. He's a completely different goalie playing from behind.
I wanted to pick this series for LA and it wouldn't surprise me if they won it. In the end though I thought Vancouver's experience, determination and home ice edge would give them the victory.
ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125
I've talk before about the process. Before a team can have success in the playoffs, they typically have to go through some struggles. The adversity teaches them what it takes to win in the playoffs. The intensity level that dominates the playoffs is difficult to simulate with regular season play. A team must focus more than ever on team defense and rely on its goaltending to succeed.
Although the Blues do not possess the playoff experience to match the Sharks, they do have a team built for the playoffs. They play better as a team than anybody in the league and have had stellar goaltending all year long. They've got a coach with plenty of experience and the grit to hang with the bigguns.
They'll have their hands full with San Jose. A big physical team with plenty of top-end talent. From a physical standpoint they are designed for the playoffs. It's their mental makeup that has come into question from time to time, including this regular season. There are also questions in net that'll probably keep them from getting to the finals once again. St. Louis is a tough place to play and will surely be fired up for their first home game in years. If San Jose can just keep in close, I expect they'll grab a victory in one of the first two games and use it as motivation to finish off the higher ranked Blues. Don't fret Blues fans, they'll be back in the mix for years to come.
PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40
Phoenix couldn't have asked for a much better matchup. Then again, Chicago is probably thrilled with it as well. Neither team has been dominant this season yet both enter the playoffs on somewhat of a roll.
This really might be the last hurrah for the Coyotes as the city is balking at paying the $20M plus is supposedly owes to the NHL. NHL owners have frequently said they are tired of owning the team and no local owner has stepped up to the plate. That being said, I hope something positive happens on the Phoenix front because the moving of teams is only a temporary solution.
The Coyotes played a well disciplined game built around strong defense, solid goaltending and opportunistic offense. The better keep that methodology working because Chicago is bound to throw a lot of pucks at them.
Chicago comes in playing some of the best hockey of the season and is capable of scoring a lot of goals. Their problems are on defense and in net where inconsistency kept them in the from capturing a higher seed. The biggest question may be whether or not Towes can return because with him they are a much more effective team. Overall I give them the edge because I'm not convince Smith and the Coyotes can keep the Hawks off the scoreboard.
NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0
For only the second time in 21 years the Wings start the first round on the road. This could actually be a blessing in disguise. For an experienced team, their is a ton of pressure to win the first one at home. Losing it immediately puts the host team behind the eight ball. As the playoffs roll on, that pressure reduces a bit as teams settle into their playoff mode.
Nashville is a beast of a team. Built from the net out and around a philosophy where the coach creates clear roles for his players and they are all expected to chip in. Nashville finally got the monkey off their back last year when they won their first playoff series. Now the expectation go up as just winning one won't cut it. Fortunately for fans of the Predators, they have all the pieces for a long run. One of the best goaltenders in the league couple with the best defensive first pair.
The real surprise is just how effective the Predators have been at scoring. They've always had a nice collection of grinders but now they've got some finishers to go along with it. Finally getting Radulov to return from Russia might just be the key that pushes them deeper yet.
But before the Predators can start celebrating, they'll have to dispatch a team that has been doing it for decades. The Red Wings await the Predators and won't go down without a fight. Many have proclaimed their reign over before only to see them dig deep and find a way to stay on top. Although the Wings have struggled recently to overcome several injuries, the Wings were as good as any team in the NHL at one point during the season. They are much healthier now and better defensively then they were last season. Goaltending is still strong and the weapons up front are still there. Zetterberg is playing his best hockey of the season, Filpula and Hudler are having career years and Datsyuk still sees and does things normal humans can barely comprehend.
The key to this series may be special teams. Nashville is a much better powerplay and penalty killing team than Detroit. Unless Detroit improves their special teams, they won't advance. Howard must be Rinne's equal and Franzen must find the back of the net.
I just think the Predators have too much going for them and Detroit has too many things that'll have to go right quickly. If Detroit can get past this round, I think they are a serious contender to make it to the finals. Unfortunately, I just think the Predators will be ready from the first puck drop.
If the Wings fall, many will ready to call their run over. It happened each time they previously lost in the first round and the media will be itching to do it again. But with more talent in the pipeline, quality ownership, great management and good coaching, they'll still be around for years to come. They may not be as dominant, but they'll still be a factor.
I'm not placing any bet on this series because I don't want to bet against my favorite team. I just don't like feeling any satisfaction or getting any reward based on their losing.
LOOKING AHEAD
No playoff prediction would be complete without picking the eventual winner. In the beginning of the season I picked Pittsburgh over San Jose. I see no reason to go against Pittsburgh at this time. Looking at the West and how the matchups might play out, I'll go with Nashville to represent the West.
Pittsburgh over Nashville
Marc-Andre Fluery as Conn Smyth winner.
Total Bet: $590
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