Time is incredibly short at the moment. It is only 45 minutes to the start of round 2 so I better get my picks in. I've got a busy weekend ahead so you'll have to excuse me if I don't take time to wrap up the previous round or provide much details about my picks for this round.
By Monday evening I'll come back and add that information. In the meantime, here's the quick version:
A look back at round 1. Three words I forgot to mention GOALTENDING, GOALTENDING, GOALTENDING. I truly thought going into the first round that each and every series would probably be decided by which goalie played best in net. I think that was pretty much the case in all of them. Even the offensive feast that was the Flyers - Penguins series, Bryzgolov outplayed Fluery when it mattered most.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160
Actual: NEW YORK RANGERS in 7 - WIN
This series was a little bit closer than I expected. Ottawa played terrific and their coaching staff has to be commended for having the team well prepared to face the Rangers. In the end the more talented team came out on top.
BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120
Actual: WASHINGTON in 7 - LOSS
If you would have told me before this series that Washington's goalie would outplay Boston's I would have told you you were insane. But that is precisely what happened. In addition, Washington somehow transformed themselves defensive team. For once, the forwards were doing their part and making the sacrifices necessary to win. Coach Hunter made a bold move reducing Ovechkin's ice time and forcing the team to rely on team defense. We'll see if that holds moving forward.
FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75
Actual: NEW JERSEY in 7 - WIN
This series had the lowest TV ratings by far and I can completely understand. I watched less of this series than any of the others. What I did catch though was pretty entertaining. Florida gave New Jersey all they could handle and frequently rebounded from early deficits. These teams were evening matched but neither is deep enough for a long playoff run. Florida's run just ended a little earlier than new Jersey's.
PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50
Actual: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - LOSS
I'm sure there were more than a few people entertained by this series. To me, it was almost a comedy of errors. One of the teams, Philadelphia, figured out how to play a little defense and came out on top because of it. The Penguins have to be kicking themselves about now. A golden opportunity was missed and they have no excuses for it. They we embarassed up and down the roster. Seeing Bryzgolov struggle at times wasn't a huge shock. See Fluery struggle the entire series was. The Penguins made the mistake of trying to play an up tempo game against the Flyers. It might be their strength, but it is Philly's as well. They would have been better serve to play it conservative be opportunistic. For that, coach Bylsma drops a notch in my ratings.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20
Actual: LOS ANGELESE in 5 - LOSS
Vancouver quickly (pun intended) found out why no one wanted to play Los Angeles to start these playoffs. All season long LA has been sound at defense and in net. During the last week of the season and in this series, they finally found their scoring touch. In contrast, Vancouver couldn't get anything going on offense and felt that replacing their goaltender was the appropriate solution??? Luongo's replacement was better than he was and probably created a quandry. The Canucks will want to trade Luongo but can't exactly do that until the re-sign Schneider. Schneider knowing that will likely command a big salary, something the Canucks were hoping to a avoid. The result of this series really didn't surprise me, I waffled quite a bit before picking the Canucks.
ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125
Actual: ST. LOUIS in 5 - LOSS
This series shocked me. Not so much that the Blues won but how easily they dispatched with a much more experienced team. There are some serious troubles in San Jose and every retooling they make seems to make the team worse. The Blues used their disciplined forecheck and team defense to smother the Sharks. This Blues team is going to be a force for years to come. I don't think they'll advance to the Cup this year but it won't be long.
PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40
Actual: PHOENIX in 6 - LOSS
Talk about an emotional roller coaster of a series. 5 of 6 games went to overtime and Chicago managed to tie 4 of the games in the last 5 minutes of the contest. In the end the Coyotes had the better goaltending and their offense delivered the most timely goals. Chicago still has some big holes in their lineup they haven't filled since the salary cap casualties post Cup win. Fortuantely, they have some youth in the pipeline.
NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0
Actual: NASHVILLE in 5 - WIN
Obviously, this one didn't end the way I want. I cannot say I'm surprised though. I refuse to use injuries as an excuse but I do think that losing Helm in game 1 had a big impact on the series. He filled a roll no other Wing could replace. Combine that with luck that just didn't go there way plus sound defense by the Predators and the Wings get bounced once again. However, it wasn't as lopsided as many suggest. All the games were close on the scoreboard and the Wings outplayed the Predators in a couple of their losses. The Predators deserved to win because Rinne was sensational and they were able to get the timely goals. There is a reason they were my pick for team from the West.
That's a terrible 3-5. One of my worst picking sessions in years. Good thing New York and New Jersey pulled out their game 7s.
$590 bet only $235 in winnings. I'm down $355 and have only $645 of my original $1000 to be on the next round.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 6 - $80
The Capitals had better play the same way they did against Boston or the Rangers will make quick work of them. The Rangers are better than any other team at dicatating tempo and playing consistently. The Capitals will need to find a way to score against Lundqvist because a low scoring series favors the Rangers due to the inexperience in the Capitals net. Coach Hunter must find a way to get Ovechkin involved in the series without creating a defensive liability. I suspect the Rangers will come out on top based on the strength of their defense and goaltending. Washington is still the much more fragile team.
PHILADELPHIA #5 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $90
One of the few series where I do not think goaltending is the key. While neither goaltender can afford to play subpar, I don't expect either to steal the series. This one may end up being decided on the power play. New Jersey would be wise to stay disciplined as the Flyers power play sets the tempo for their team. Kovalchuk needs to play sound at both ends of the ice as turnovers will turn into quick goals by the talented Flyers offense. Look for Giroux to continue his tear help to put the series out of reach early. Jersey's next questions will be whether or not they can keep Parise in town and Broduer from heading to the retirement home.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
ST. LOUIS #2 vs LOS ANGELESE #8
Prediction: LOS ANGELES in 7 - $25
On paper, this looks like a series that could be very low scoring with lots of overtime contests but I have a feeling Los Angeles's offense is going to continue to produce. St. Louis's goaltending must continue to be their strength because scoring more than a couple goals a game against the Kings will be extremely difficult. Coach Hitchcock will have to do his best to keep his young roster in check as I think they'll be faced with more ups and downs than all season. The Blues must stick to the team first concept and work hard every shift. Goals for them won't be the pretty type so they'll have to get to the front of the net and fight for pucks in the corners.
PHOENIX #3 vs NASHVILLE #4
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 6 - $130
These two teams are very much alike. Each features excellent coaching, sound team defense and superb goaltending. Neither has superstars on offense but can get scoring from all over the lineup. Nashville has a bit more playoff experience but the Coyotes have seen a few series the last few years. But the way I see it, Nashville is notch better in every area. Rinne is better than Smith. Weber and Suter are better than anything Phoenix can put out there and Nashville's offense is more potent 5 on 5 and especially on the power play.
As I write this, Phoenix already has a 2-0 lead. Rinne and the Nashville defense hasn't been as effective as they were during the season or against the Wings. However, they haven't lost at home yet and it wouldn't shock me to see the Preds pull this on off.
A total of $325 bet.
Since my Eastern Conference Cup finalist, Pittsburgh is now out, I revise my pick to be Nashville vs New York with Nashville coming out on top. Pekka Rinne for the Conn Smythe. I know this looks a little off due to the status of the Nashville - Phoenix series but that's the choice I made a couple days ago.
I'll be back again at the end of this round. Until then, you know where I'll be, parked watching some hockey.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1
There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.
I'm adjusting my process a little bit. This year I'll take a fictional $1000 and bet it on the games. Each round I am forced to bet at least 50% of my remaining pool or $500 whichever is less. By examinging the bets you'll get a gauge of how much confidence I have in each of my choices.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160
The Rangers have been one of the most consistent teams all season. The play together really well as a team and every player seems to know their role. Coaching is superb and goaltending may be the best in the league. My one concern was that the team hadn't dealt with any adversity. However, just before the season came to close, the Rangers had some minor struggles. They managed to overcome them showing the team has the ability and character to deal with the ups and downs that most teams go through during the playoffs. Their weakness might be their lack of playoff success. This should be the year they make a deep run but are the players ready for it.
What Ottawa did this season was nothing less than amazing. I, and many others, had they picked to finish dead last in the league. Instead, the veterans and youngsters responded quick well to a new coaching staff and philosophy. The emergence of the wonderkid on the blueline, Karlsson, seem to bring a new enthusiasm to the club. There are still questions in net and lack of grit they'll need to succeed in the playoffs. Playing against New York is not the ideal matchup. They have already succeeded far beyond any expectations. Winning a couple more games in the playoffs would be a great way to keep things rolling next year.
BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120
Boston should have had the #1 seed wrapped up long ago but started playing like they were thinking ahead to the playoffs. One week of struggles turned into two and two into 4 and suddenly Ottawa was breathing down their necks for the division title. Finally, Boston got things back in order and Ottawa settled back. This is much the same team that hoisted The Cup last year and has all the tools to repeat. With two good options in net, a maturing core and a collect of players more than willing to do the tough jobs, they'll be tough to topple.
Washington never found consistency after opening the season on an extended winning streak. Changing coaches didn't solve the problem and none of the three goalies could stop all the problems. Washington is team desperately in need of an identity beyond pretty playmakers. They lack grit and leadership throughout the lineup and when their stars don't score, there is no one there to pickup the slack. There is still enough offensive talent to create a scare for Boston but with injuries issues in net, they are at a major disadvantage. They'll likely have to steal game 1 to have any chance. If this team goes down in this series as I expect, I think we'll see major changes in the offseason. A team that should have been trending up is heading down quick.
FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75
Do not take this pick to mean I have a lack of respect for the Panthers. Honestly, I think they are a much better team than many give them credit for. It's a nice collection of players. There aren't many A-list superstars but they play well as a team. The problem is few of them have played together very long and they still working on an identity. Their goaltending has been exposed before and I suspect it'll get exposed again in the playoffs.
New Jersey is on a roll heading into the playoffs playing their best hockey in a couple of years. With more shrewed drafting they've managed to round out the roster quite well and there is plenty of experience to handle the playoff intensity. While I don't think they have the depth to reach the finals, they do have the tools to get past Florida and maybe upset another.
PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50
Everybody, including me, will be watching this series for all the intensity it should bring, all the offensive talent and to see if the Flyers finally have the goaltending to take it to the next level.
The Penguins were playing great before Crosby and Letang returned and with them they'll be even more dangerous and still pick to win The Cup. They've got everything a playoff team needs on offense, defense and in net. They can roll 4 lines and play just about any style. Coaching is top-notch and just about the entire team has been down this road before.
The Flyers are a bit of an enigma. On some nights they look like world beaters and on others they play like team that shouldn't be in the playoffs. Much of that can be attributed to the large roster turnover, injuries, youth on defense and stop me if you've heard this before, inconsistent goaltending. At least the goaltending stabalized before the end of the season. It had better stay that way because they'll need it to be stellar to pull off the upset.
The reality is I think the Flyers stand the best chance of any Eastern team to bounce the Penguins from the playoffs. That's because I don't think any other team can score enough goals to keep up. They'll have to do it while maintaining their emotions though as killing penalties is the recipe for disaster. Winning one of the first two in Pittsburgh would help a lot but getting shutdown goaltending would do even more.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20
Vancouver had their shares of struggles this season but their deep roster finally came together and had a nice run towards the end of the season to grab the #1 overall seed. But coming off a Stanley Cup final loss means the regular season was just about pointless. How they do now will determine how successful they are. No other team faces higher expectations in these playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if they come out tight in the first round where they'll probably be most vulnerable.
Luongo had a another good season but there were more than a couple of stretch where backup Schneider outperformed him. You'd think the coaching staff would have Luongo on a very short leash this postseason. They cannot afford to struggle when there are plenty of other teams ready to take advantage. Secondary scoring will be key for the Canucks, especially against a Kings team that frustrates teams routinely.
The Kings should be happy they made the playoffs but shouldn't be satisfied. Ownership made a huge commitment to the team in the offseason and they responded by being inconsistent as a whole and pathetic on offense. Fortuantely, they have very good defense and excellent goaltending to compensate. But if the team cannot find a way to score more goals in the playoffs, it'll be another short run. They must attack Luongo destroy confidence. He's a completely different goalie playing from behind.
I wanted to pick this series for LA and it wouldn't surprise me if they won it. In the end though I thought Vancouver's experience, determination and home ice edge would give them the victory.
ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125
I've talk before about the process. Before a team can have success in the playoffs, they typically have to go through some struggles. The adversity teaches them what it takes to win in the playoffs. The intensity level that dominates the playoffs is difficult to simulate with regular season play. A team must focus more than ever on team defense and rely on its goaltending to succeed.
Although the Blues do not possess the playoff experience to match the Sharks, they do have a team built for the playoffs. They play better as a team than anybody in the league and have had stellar goaltending all year long. They've got a coach with plenty of experience and the grit to hang with the bigguns.
They'll have their hands full with San Jose. A big physical team with plenty of top-end talent. From a physical standpoint they are designed for the playoffs. It's their mental makeup that has come into question from time to time, including this regular season. There are also questions in net that'll probably keep them from getting to the finals once again. St. Louis is a tough place to play and will surely be fired up for their first home game in years. If San Jose can just keep in close, I expect they'll grab a victory in one of the first two games and use it as motivation to finish off the higher ranked Blues. Don't fret Blues fans, they'll be back in the mix for years to come.
PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40
Phoenix couldn't have asked for a much better matchup. Then again, Chicago is probably thrilled with it as well. Neither team has been dominant this season yet both enter the playoffs on somewhat of a roll.
This really might be the last hurrah for the Coyotes as the city is balking at paying the $20M plus is supposedly owes to the NHL. NHL owners have frequently said they are tired of owning the team and no local owner has stepped up to the plate. That being said, I hope something positive happens on the Phoenix front because the moving of teams is only a temporary solution.
The Coyotes played a well disciplined game built around strong defense, solid goaltending and opportunistic offense. The better keep that methodology working because Chicago is bound to throw a lot of pucks at them.
Chicago comes in playing some of the best hockey of the season and is capable of scoring a lot of goals. Their problems are on defense and in net where inconsistency kept them in the from capturing a higher seed. The biggest question may be whether or not Towes can return because with him they are a much more effective team. Overall I give them the edge because I'm not convince Smith and the Coyotes can keep the Hawks off the scoreboard.
NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0
For only the second time in 21 years the Wings start the first round on the road. This could actually be a blessing in disguise. For an experienced team, their is a ton of pressure to win the first one at home. Losing it immediately puts the host team behind the eight ball. As the playoffs roll on, that pressure reduces a bit as teams settle into their playoff mode.
Nashville is a beast of a team. Built from the net out and around a philosophy where the coach creates clear roles for his players and they are all expected to chip in. Nashville finally got the monkey off their back last year when they won their first playoff series. Now the expectation go up as just winning one won't cut it. Fortunately for fans of the Predators, they have all the pieces for a long run. One of the best goaltenders in the league couple with the best defensive first pair.
The real surprise is just how effective the Predators have been at scoring. They've always had a nice collection of grinders but now they've got some finishers to go along with it. Finally getting Radulov to return from Russia might just be the key that pushes them deeper yet.
But before the Predators can start celebrating, they'll have to dispatch a team that has been doing it for decades. The Red Wings await the Predators and won't go down without a fight. Many have proclaimed their reign over before only to see them dig deep and find a way to stay on top. Although the Wings have struggled recently to overcome several injuries, the Wings were as good as any team in the NHL at one point during the season. They are much healthier now and better defensively then they were last season. Goaltending is still strong and the weapons up front are still there. Zetterberg is playing his best hockey of the season, Filpula and Hudler are having career years and Datsyuk still sees and does things normal humans can barely comprehend.
The key to this series may be special teams. Nashville is a much better powerplay and penalty killing team than Detroit. Unless Detroit improves their special teams, they won't advance. Howard must be Rinne's equal and Franzen must find the back of the net.
I just think the Predators have too much going for them and Detroit has too many things that'll have to go right quickly. If Detroit can get past this round, I think they are a serious contender to make it to the finals. Unfortunately, I just think the Predators will be ready from the first puck drop.
If the Wings fall, many will ready to call their run over. It happened each time they previously lost in the first round and the media will be itching to do it again. But with more talent in the pipeline, quality ownership, great management and good coaching, they'll still be around for years to come. They may not be as dominant, but they'll still be a factor.
I'm not placing any bet on this series because I don't want to bet against my favorite team. I just don't like feeling any satisfaction or getting any reward based on their losing.
LOOKING AHEAD
No playoff prediction would be complete without picking the eventual winner. In the beginning of the season I picked Pittsburgh over San Jose. I see no reason to go against Pittsburgh at this time. Looking at the West and how the matchups might play out, I'll go with Nashville to represent the West.
Pittsburgh over Nashville
Marc-Andre Fluery as Conn Smyth winner.
Total Bet: $590
I'm adjusting my process a little bit. This year I'll take a fictional $1000 and bet it on the games. Each round I am forced to bet at least 50% of my remaining pool or $500 whichever is less. By examinging the bets you'll get a gauge of how much confidence I have in each of my choices.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK RANGERS #1 vs OTTAWA #8
Prediction: NEW YORK RANGERS in 5 - $160
The Rangers have been one of the most consistent teams all season. The play together really well as a team and every player seems to know their role. Coaching is superb and goaltending may be the best in the league. My one concern was that the team hadn't dealt with any adversity. However, just before the season came to close, the Rangers had some minor struggles. They managed to overcome them showing the team has the ability and character to deal with the ups and downs that most teams go through during the playoffs. Their weakness might be their lack of playoff success. This should be the year they make a deep run but are the players ready for it.
What Ottawa did this season was nothing less than amazing. I, and many others, had they picked to finish dead last in the league. Instead, the veterans and youngsters responded quick well to a new coaching staff and philosophy. The emergence of the wonderkid on the blueline, Karlsson, seem to bring a new enthusiasm to the club. There are still questions in net and lack of grit they'll need to succeed in the playoffs. Playing against New York is not the ideal matchup. They have already succeeded far beyond any expectations. Winning a couple more games in the playoffs would be a great way to keep things rolling next year.
BOSTON #2 vs WASHINGTON #7
Prediction: BOSTON in 6 - $120
Boston should have had the #1 seed wrapped up long ago but started playing like they were thinking ahead to the playoffs. One week of struggles turned into two and two into 4 and suddenly Ottawa was breathing down their necks for the division title. Finally, Boston got things back in order and Ottawa settled back. This is much the same team that hoisted The Cup last year and has all the tools to repeat. With two good options in net, a maturing core and a collect of players more than willing to do the tough jobs, they'll be tough to topple.
Washington never found consistency after opening the season on an extended winning streak. Changing coaches didn't solve the problem and none of the three goalies could stop all the problems. Washington is team desperately in need of an identity beyond pretty playmakers. They lack grit and leadership throughout the lineup and when their stars don't score, there is no one there to pickup the slack. There is still enough offensive talent to create a scare for Boston but with injuries issues in net, they are at a major disadvantage. They'll likely have to steal game 1 to have any chance. If this team goes down in this series as I expect, I think we'll see major changes in the offseason. A team that should have been trending up is heading down quick.
FLORIDA #3 vs NEW JERSEY #6
Prediction: NEW JERSEY in 6 - $75
Do not take this pick to mean I have a lack of respect for the Panthers. Honestly, I think they are a much better team than many give them credit for. It's a nice collection of players. There aren't many A-list superstars but they play well as a team. The problem is few of them have played together very long and they still working on an identity. Their goaltending has been exposed before and I suspect it'll get exposed again in the playoffs.
New Jersey is on a roll heading into the playoffs playing their best hockey in a couple of years. With more shrewed drafting they've managed to round out the roster quite well and there is plenty of experience to handle the playoff intensity. While I don't think they have the depth to reach the finals, they do have the tools to get past Florida and maybe upset another.
PITTSBURGH #4 vs PHILADELPHIA #5
Prediction: PITTSBURGH in 7 - $50
Everybody, including me, will be watching this series for all the intensity it should bring, all the offensive talent and to see if the Flyers finally have the goaltending to take it to the next level.
The Penguins were playing great before Crosby and Letang returned and with them they'll be even more dangerous and still pick to win The Cup. They've got everything a playoff team needs on offense, defense and in net. They can roll 4 lines and play just about any style. Coaching is top-notch and just about the entire team has been down this road before.
The Flyers are a bit of an enigma. On some nights they look like world beaters and on others they play like team that shouldn't be in the playoffs. Much of that can be attributed to the large roster turnover, injuries, youth on defense and stop me if you've heard this before, inconsistent goaltending. At least the goaltending stabalized before the end of the season. It had better stay that way because they'll need it to be stellar to pull off the upset.
The reality is I think the Flyers stand the best chance of any Eastern team to bounce the Penguins from the playoffs. That's because I don't think any other team can score enough goals to keep up. They'll have to do it while maintaining their emotions though as killing penalties is the recipe for disaster. Winning one of the first two in Pittsburgh would help a lot but getting shutdown goaltending would do even more.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VANCOUVER #1 vs LOS ANGELES #8
Prediction: VANCOUVER in 7 - $20
Vancouver had their shares of struggles this season but their deep roster finally came together and had a nice run towards the end of the season to grab the #1 overall seed. But coming off a Stanley Cup final loss means the regular season was just about pointless. How they do now will determine how successful they are. No other team faces higher expectations in these playoffs. It'll be interesting to see if they come out tight in the first round where they'll probably be most vulnerable.
Luongo had a another good season but there were more than a couple of stretch where backup Schneider outperformed him. You'd think the coaching staff would have Luongo on a very short leash this postseason. They cannot afford to struggle when there are plenty of other teams ready to take advantage. Secondary scoring will be key for the Canucks, especially against a Kings team that frustrates teams routinely.
The Kings should be happy they made the playoffs but shouldn't be satisfied. Ownership made a huge commitment to the team in the offseason and they responded by being inconsistent as a whole and pathetic on offense. Fortuantely, they have very good defense and excellent goaltending to compensate. But if the team cannot find a way to score more goals in the playoffs, it'll be another short run. They must attack Luongo destroy confidence. He's a completely different goalie playing from behind.
I wanted to pick this series for LA and it wouldn't surprise me if they won it. In the end though I thought Vancouver's experience, determination and home ice edge would give them the victory.
ST. LOUIS #2 vs SAN JOSE #7
Prediction: SAN JOSE in 6 - $125
I've talk before about the process. Before a team can have success in the playoffs, they typically have to go through some struggles. The adversity teaches them what it takes to win in the playoffs. The intensity level that dominates the playoffs is difficult to simulate with regular season play. A team must focus more than ever on team defense and rely on its goaltending to succeed.
Although the Blues do not possess the playoff experience to match the Sharks, they do have a team built for the playoffs. They play better as a team than anybody in the league and have had stellar goaltending all year long. They've got a coach with plenty of experience and the grit to hang with the bigguns.
They'll have their hands full with San Jose. A big physical team with plenty of top-end talent. From a physical standpoint they are designed for the playoffs. It's their mental makeup that has come into question from time to time, including this regular season. There are also questions in net that'll probably keep them from getting to the finals once again. St. Louis is a tough place to play and will surely be fired up for their first home game in years. If San Jose can just keep in close, I expect they'll grab a victory in one of the first two games and use it as motivation to finish off the higher ranked Blues. Don't fret Blues fans, they'll be back in the mix for years to come.
PHOENIX #3 vs CHICAGO #6
Prediction: CHICAGO in 6 - $40
Phoenix couldn't have asked for a much better matchup. Then again, Chicago is probably thrilled with it as well. Neither team has been dominant this season yet both enter the playoffs on somewhat of a roll.
This really might be the last hurrah for the Coyotes as the city is balking at paying the $20M plus is supposedly owes to the NHL. NHL owners have frequently said they are tired of owning the team and no local owner has stepped up to the plate. That being said, I hope something positive happens on the Phoenix front because the moving of teams is only a temporary solution.
The Coyotes played a well disciplined game built around strong defense, solid goaltending and opportunistic offense. The better keep that methodology working because Chicago is bound to throw a lot of pucks at them.
Chicago comes in playing some of the best hockey of the season and is capable of scoring a lot of goals. Their problems are on defense and in net where inconsistency kept them in the from capturing a higher seed. The biggest question may be whether or not Towes can return because with him they are a much more effective team. Overall I give them the edge because I'm not convince Smith and the Coyotes can keep the Hawks off the scoreboard.
NASHVILLE #4 vs DETROIT #5
Prediction: NASHVILLE in 7 - $0
For only the second time in 21 years the Wings start the first round on the road. This could actually be a blessing in disguise. For an experienced team, their is a ton of pressure to win the first one at home. Losing it immediately puts the host team behind the eight ball. As the playoffs roll on, that pressure reduces a bit as teams settle into their playoff mode.
Nashville is a beast of a team. Built from the net out and around a philosophy where the coach creates clear roles for his players and they are all expected to chip in. Nashville finally got the monkey off their back last year when they won their first playoff series. Now the expectation go up as just winning one won't cut it. Fortunately for fans of the Predators, they have all the pieces for a long run. One of the best goaltenders in the league couple with the best defensive first pair.
The real surprise is just how effective the Predators have been at scoring. They've always had a nice collection of grinders but now they've got some finishers to go along with it. Finally getting Radulov to return from Russia might just be the key that pushes them deeper yet.
But before the Predators can start celebrating, they'll have to dispatch a team that has been doing it for decades. The Red Wings await the Predators and won't go down without a fight. Many have proclaimed their reign over before only to see them dig deep and find a way to stay on top. Although the Wings have struggled recently to overcome several injuries, the Wings were as good as any team in the NHL at one point during the season. They are much healthier now and better defensively then they were last season. Goaltending is still strong and the weapons up front are still there. Zetterberg is playing his best hockey of the season, Filpula and Hudler are having career years and Datsyuk still sees and does things normal humans can barely comprehend.
The key to this series may be special teams. Nashville is a much better powerplay and penalty killing team than Detroit. Unless Detroit improves their special teams, they won't advance. Howard must be Rinne's equal and Franzen must find the back of the net.
I just think the Predators have too much going for them and Detroit has too many things that'll have to go right quickly. If Detroit can get past this round, I think they are a serious contender to make it to the finals. Unfortunately, I just think the Predators will be ready from the first puck drop.
If the Wings fall, many will ready to call their run over. It happened each time they previously lost in the first round and the media will be itching to do it again. But with more talent in the pipeline, quality ownership, great management and good coaching, they'll still be around for years to come. They may not be as dominant, but they'll still be a factor.
I'm not placing any bet on this series because I don't want to bet against my favorite team. I just don't like feeling any satisfaction or getting any reward based on their losing.
LOOKING AHEAD
No playoff prediction would be complete without picking the eventual winner. In the beginning of the season I picked Pittsburgh over San Jose. I see no reason to go against Pittsburgh at this time. Looking at the West and how the matchups might play out, I'll go with Nashville to represent the West.
Pittsburgh over Nashville
Marc-Andre Fluery as Conn Smyth winner.
Total Bet: $590
NHL Predictions - A Look Back
The playoff fun is about to begin. If the race leading up to the playoffs is any indication, we are in for a dandy. There is a ton of parity in the NHL and the teams seeding at the top are not that much better than the ones seeded at the bottom.
Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared.
It's been a long a tough season for me. After attending 40+ games last year, I was only able to attend 2. Traveling to Nashville is a bit more difficult than traveling downtown. I barely wear my Thrashers gear in public because it pains me everytime someone calls it a collectable or reminds me that the team is gone. I cannot walk by Philips Arena without almost shedding a tear. The pain still runs deep and it disgusts me to see the press and NHL fans blame the loss of the team on anything other than the bonehead ownership group.
Despite my depression over the situation, I'm still watching the NHL and enjoying the game. There was a lot to like this year. I cannot remember a season full of so much inconsistency. Just about every good team went through long stretches where they struggled. Some of the leagues biggest stars were missing or inefficent but there were plenty of others to take up the slack.
I managed to pick 5 of 8 playoff teams in the East with New Jersey, Florida and Ottawa replacing Buffalo, Carolina and Tampa Bay. In the West I picked a whopping 7 of 8 teams with only Phoenix replacing Anaheim.
The biggest surprises had to be Washington, Ottawa, St. Louis, San Jose, Florida and LA. Each of those situations showed just how important coaching can be. Washington, San Jose and LA saved a lot of face in the last couple of weeks but still have a long way to go to call their season a success. Ottawa and Florida were the feel good stories of the season and will now get to see just how much harder it is to succeed in the playoffs.
While I'm surprised at St. Louis's overall record, I'm not surprised they have improved dramatically. They've been on the cusp for the last couple of years but injuries, maturity and goaltending have set them back. When all three of those came together along with a coach perfect for the situation, they climbed fast. Now it is on to the next challenge, winning a series or two.
Watching Detroit was a roller coaster ride. A nice winning streak to start the season, followed by a losing streak, followed by a record-breaking home winning streak, followed by a series of injuries and late season struggles. I think they can still be just as dangerous as any other NHL team but getting everything going in time will be a challenge.
Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared.
It's been a long a tough season for me. After attending 40+ games last year, I was only able to attend 2. Traveling to Nashville is a bit more difficult than traveling downtown. I barely wear my Thrashers gear in public because it pains me everytime someone calls it a collectable or reminds me that the team is gone. I cannot walk by Philips Arena without almost shedding a tear. The pain still runs deep and it disgusts me to see the press and NHL fans blame the loss of the team on anything other than the bonehead ownership group.
Despite my depression over the situation, I'm still watching the NHL and enjoying the game. There was a lot to like this year. I cannot remember a season full of so much inconsistency. Just about every good team went through long stretches where they struggled. Some of the leagues biggest stars were missing or inefficent but there were plenty of others to take up the slack.
I managed to pick 5 of 8 playoff teams in the East with New Jersey, Florida and Ottawa replacing Buffalo, Carolina and Tampa Bay. In the West I picked a whopping 7 of 8 teams with only Phoenix replacing Anaheim.
The biggest surprises had to be Washington, Ottawa, St. Louis, San Jose, Florida and LA. Each of those situations showed just how important coaching can be. Washington, San Jose and LA saved a lot of face in the last couple of weeks but still have a long way to go to call their season a success. Ottawa and Florida were the feel good stories of the season and will now get to see just how much harder it is to succeed in the playoffs.
While I'm surprised at St. Louis's overall record, I'm not surprised they have improved dramatically. They've been on the cusp for the last couple of years but injuries, maturity and goaltending have set them back. When all three of those came together along with a coach perfect for the situation, they climbed fast. Now it is on to the next challenge, winning a series or two.
Watching Detroit was a roller coaster ride. A nice winning streak to start the season, followed by a losing streak, followed by a record-breaking home winning streak, followed by a series of injuries and late season struggles. I think they can still be just as dangerous as any other NHL team but getting everything going in time will be a challenge.
NHL Storylines
The eight and final installment looking at the "Circle The Date" landmarks laid out in my NHL Predictions.
The regular season is over. season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.
San Jose - Apr 5/7 vs Los Angeles - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.
Pretty spot on about the importance of this series. Turns out Phoenix spoiled the party by winning the division. The games were very entertaining and certainly set the tone for the playoffs ahead. These two teams have had a difficult time this year maintaining any consistency for different reasons. Both will hope to turn it around in the coming weeks. I cannot remember a time where the 7 & 8 seeds were as dangerous as this year.
Buffalo - Apr 7 at Boston - Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.
The challenge became too much for Buffalo to overcome. If nothing else it served notice to the Sabres that games in the first half of the season are just as important as those in the second. For all the effort the Sabres put forth in the second half, they still came up short.
Edmonton - Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?
Edmonton did improve quite a bit this year and probably could have taken greater strides if they hadn't suffered so many injuries. There is still a lot of work to do on the defensive side and a more reliable goalie will have to be found. It won't be an easy task getting free agents to come to Edmonton.
The regular season is over. season is coming to a close but there are still a couple playoff spots at stake and several seedings to be decided.
San Jose - Apr 5/7 vs Los Angeles - Home and home series against LA to finish the season. This could determine division winner, playoff seeding or playoff preview. Stay up late to catch these tilts.
Pretty spot on about the importance of this series. Turns out Phoenix spoiled the party by winning the division. The games were very entertaining and certainly set the tone for the playoffs ahead. These two teams have had a difficult time this year maintaining any consistency for different reasons. Both will hope to turn it around in the coming weeks. I cannot remember a time where the 7 & 8 seeds were as dangerous as this year.
Buffalo - Apr 7 at Boston - Schedule ends with a tough 7 of 11 on the road and a finale against division rival Boston. It isn't far-fetched to think this game sets the tone for a Sabres playoff run.
The challenge became too much for Buffalo to overcome. If nothing else it served notice to the Sabres that games in the first half of the season are just as important as those in the second. For all the effort the Sabres put forth in the second half, they still came up short.
Edmonton - Apr 7 at Vancouver - last game of the season. Have the Oilers finally escaped the bottom? How much farther to go?
Edmonton did improve quite a bit this year and probably could have taken greater strides if they hadn't suffered so many injuries. There is still a lot of work to do on the defensive side and a more reliable goalie will have to be found. It won't be an easy task getting free agents to come to Edmonton.
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