EASTERN CONFERENCE
MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct.
Montreal had their problems against Boston on both the offense and defensive ends of the ice but I'm guessing they get a more consistent effort in round 2 after getting the first round under their belts. Their power play floundered but Philly will likely give them plenty of opportunities to work through it. I expect Montreal to come out flying and try to expose Philly's somewhat shallow defense. A top-level performance out of Biron early will be a key to keeping this series close. Montreal will almost certainly have a couple of lop-sided wins in the contest. The main question will be how the Flyers respond.
The Flyers will look to intimidate in any way possible. Hard checking and disciplined hockey will have to be the norm even more so than in the Capitals series. Getting bodies in front of the young Habs goalie and getting the ugly goals will keep the series close. The power play must continue its high level of performance, a task that'll be much more difficult against the more disciplined Canadiens who play quite well on the penalty kill.
I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners. The pressure is all on Montreal this series and if the Flyers can pull out a win in Montreal, the young Habs just might cave. Like most series, goaltending will be key. Which Price will show up?
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
I think this series has got the makings of a classic. Two up and coming teams loaded with old and new stars. One team with a very good offense and another team with sound defense and excellent goaltending. Neither team has a glaring weakness and each weakness is a strength on the opposing roster. Which team is ready to rise to the occasion and take the next step. The Penguins are almost certain to find themselves in this round for years to come. The Rangers could be at a crossroad with Jagr, Shanahan and defensemen without contracts beyond this season. Will that add extra motivation for the Rangers?
The Penguins are a threat to score with just about every offensive possession. Players like Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar make it difficult enough 5 on 5. The Rangers cannot afford to make in 5 on 4. That means a player like Avery will have to control himself. Stupid penalties could be the difference in this series.
The Rangers will play it close to the vest, trying to get the Penguins to play a slow-tempo, hard-hitting affair. A 2-1 game is a much better formula for Ranger success than 5-4 because the Rangers have had difficulties scoring throughout much of the season. The Rangers will need timely goals and they've certainly got the crew for that with Shanahan, Jagr, Gomez and Drury leading the way. But if the Penguins can control that group (notice I didn't say stop), the Rangers will be stressed to find secondary scoring. Fluery needs to handle Avery in front of the net but he can't do it alone. His defense will have to do its work to make sure he isn't a factor.
I think we'll see some close contests and the OTs the Rangers missed in the first round. Will the usual scorers show up in OT or will new legends be born.
I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
It's turn back the clock time. Forsberg, Sakic, Foote, McCarty, Maltby, Osgood, Lidstrom, Chelios. Screw all that. This is 2008 and I'm not interested in the past. The reality of the situation is that these are distinctly different teams from their last playoff series many moons ago.
Colorado might be trying to relive the past but the Wings have moved on. Fresh blood abounds in Detroit where players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen and others are looking to make their own mark on Red Wings hockey history.
Detroit is the better defensive team. From the forwards on back they play sound defensive hockey. There were times during the Nashville series where they simply couldn't get the puck past the blueline or get a shot on goal for LONG stretches. The only thing that kept Nashville in the series was a couple mental lapses by an aging Hasek and outstanding goaltending by Ellis. With Osgood taking over in net, they don't have to worry as much. His mind doesn't wander and neither do his legs. The Wings defense feels more confident playing in front of him because they know what to expect. Osgood's all-star season was no fluke. He's been playing his best hockey the last 3-4 years.
Detroit can roll four forward lines and Foote can't be out there for all of them. Look for Babcock to consider splitting up Zetterberg and Datsyuk at some point in the series to exploit the matchup problems it creates. The fourth line played extremely well in the Nashville series and I don't see why that can't continue. If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick. Hudler seems to be coming into his own this post season.
Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast. The Wings will recognize this and come after them hard, something Minnesota failed to do for some reason. Stasny cannot afford to have another insignificant series. Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he's is certain to face much more pressure.
Colorado has done well to make it to this point but I don't think they can play much better. Detroit can play better than they did in round 1. Detroit is leaps and bounds better than Minnesota, especially on the offensive end. Colorado's best chance would be to get to Osgood early and make Babcock put Hasek back in. From there, who knows what'll happen.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars. San Jose can roll four hardworking lines but at times they struggle to get secondary scoring. The city of San Jose is excited about hosting another playoff round but in the backs of their minds and the backs of the player minds are past failures in getting beyond the second round. They have the pieces in place it is simply a matter of execution and discipline.
Meanwhile, the pressure is off the Stars. They've managed to beat one of the teams many had picked to win the cup and the did it in fairly decisive fashion. An opportunistic team that plays well with the lead as is backed by solid goaltending. Its a team full of role players but few superstars. The Stars best chance is for Turco to play his best, get Zubov healthy and get big performances out of Robiero (sp?), Richards and even Modano. Stealing a game in the Shark tank early would be huge.
San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle. They've got more offensive power than the Ducks and play a physical yet disciplined game. The key for them is to get their big stars (Thorton, Marleau) involved in the contest and to stay focused throughout the series.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Review
Whew. The first round is finally over and the Wings have advanced. First round always seems to be the most challenging as teams have to adjust a bit to a new level of play and intensity. Plus, top teams have to deal with the added pressure of meeting lofty expectations. I think that is why you see some significant upsets in round 1 and this year was no different.
Reviewing my picks from Round 1:
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7
Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.
Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.
--
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4
Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.
Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.
--
WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7
Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.
Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.
--
NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5
Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.
Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.
--
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6
Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.
Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".
--
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7
Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.
Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.
--
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6
Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.
Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.
--
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6
Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!
Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
-----------------------------------------
I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.
Taking the confidence factor into account:
A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :
Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%
I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.
Reviewing my picks from Round 1:
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7
Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.
Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.
--
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4
Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.
Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.
--
WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7
Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.
Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.
--
NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5
Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.
Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.
--
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6
Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.
Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".
--
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7
Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.
Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.
--
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6
Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.
Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.
--
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6
Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!
Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
-----------------------------------------
I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.
Taking the confidence factor into account:
A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :
Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%
I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Cowback Mountain Hike
After literally years of thinking about it, I finally decided I'd take advantage of some great hiking in my "backyard". Half inspired by numerous hikes in Yosemite last spring and half inspired to find another way to get outside exercise, I bought a nice guidebook to hiking in North Georgia. There we lots of good suggestions in the book with many hikes within 2 hours of my house.
I picked the Cowback Mountain from Hogpen Gap hike because it was relatively close, 2 hours long and moderately difficult. I had originally intended to go the previous weekend but scuttled that plan at the last minute when forecast called for showers, cold and wind. Although I had the gear to handle the inclement weather, I didn't want to start off with a hike that would keep me from doing it again. This weekend the weather was perfect with highs in the mid 60s, a nice cool breeze and mostly sunny skies.
I loaded up the iPod with music and hit the road "early" Sunday. The directions in the book were great and I had no trouble finding the trail head. Overall the hike was 3.6 miles long and took about 2 1/2 hours round trip. Although from end to end it was only a 800 foot climb, numerous ups and downs made for a challenging hike. To my surprise there were numerous other people on the trail. I ran into about a dozen other hikers ranging from day hikers like myself to ones who'd been on the trail for weeks. The hike on was just one small section of the Appalachian Trail that stretches from Georgia to Maine.
I took a couple pictures along the route. The first offers a view of my destination.
The second is a view from atop the mountain. I was delighted to see a cairn (rock pile) upon my arrival at the top since they'd been such a prominent feature on my Iceland trip.
I picked the Cowback Mountain from Hogpen Gap hike because it was relatively close, 2 hours long and moderately difficult. I had originally intended to go the previous weekend but scuttled that plan at the last minute when forecast called for showers, cold and wind. Although I had the gear to handle the inclement weather, I didn't want to start off with a hike that would keep me from doing it again. This weekend the weather was perfect with highs in the mid 60s, a nice cool breeze and mostly sunny skies.
I loaded up the iPod with music and hit the road "early" Sunday. The directions in the book were great and I had no trouble finding the trail head. Overall the hike was 3.6 miles long and took about 2 1/2 hours round trip. Although from end to end it was only a 800 foot climb, numerous ups and downs made for a challenging hike. To my surprise there were numerous other people on the trail. I ran into about a dozen other hikers ranging from day hikers like myself to ones who'd been on the trail for weeks. The hike on was just one small section of the Appalachian Trail that stretches from Georgia to Maine.
I took a couple pictures along the route. The first offers a view of my destination.
The second is a view from atop the mountain. I was delighted to see a cairn (rock pile) upon my arrival at the top since they'd been such a prominent feature on my Iceland trip.
Pictures were a little bland because most of the area is just starting to bloom. All in all I'd have to consider the hike a success and I'll certainly be headed out for more soon. My biggest surprise from this trip was the sunburn I received on the ride home with top down.
Master Bathroom - Complete
The work has been done for a couple weeks. Just now getting around to uploading the final picture. The project took a great deal of time, mostly because the multiple layers of wallpaper were a bit of a pain. I learned a bunch, mostly that I need to be patient when removing wallpaper. Although I've spend hours cleaning up drywall dust, there is still more grit to remove. I'm pausing a bit to tackle other tasks before beginning similar work on Crimson's bathroom.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 - West
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
As a Wings fan, I'm pretty happy about this matchup. It isn't that I think Nashville will be a pushover. In fact, I think it will be a very difficult series. What I am thrilled about is Nashville is short plane ride from Detroit and road games will be start around 7PM my time instead of 10PM. You may be asking yourself, why is travel time such a big deal? Consider this. Last year the Wings had matchups with Calgary, San Jose and Edmonton. That's a lot of miles. It is especially significant when compared against teams from the East. For example, the New York Rangers could have travel plans involving New Jersey (bus ride), Philadelphia (bus ride) and Pittsburgh (short flight) all within the same time zone. Plus, those 10PM starts are brutal for me. One year the Wings played a triple overtime game against the Ducks. That game didn't end until almost 3AM. Makes it a bit tough to get up for work and actually think. If the Wings are going to reach the finals, there is going to be some travel involved. However, the less the better.
Detroit has a had a weird season jumping out to such a huge lead on the division and conference before faltering a bit during an 11 game stretch where they had injuries to their top 4 defensemen. They haven't had a significant game since early January. The players admitted that this has made it hard to stay focused for each contest. However, I think they have still played excellent hockey overall. During the course of the entire season they only had about 4 poorly played games. Its a huge credit to coach Babcock and the leadership on this team that they play hard every night.
The Wings have a solid defensive corp that stacks up with any unit in the league. The main reason Hasek and Osgood had such good GAA is because the defense in front of them allows very few shots and scoring chances. Looks like Stuart will return to the lineup making the defense even better. He brings a physical presence the Wings will definitely need in the coming weeks. Lidstrom and Kronwall both are threats to end up on the scoring sheet.
Up front the Wings have multiple scoring options. Beyond the superstars in Zetterberg and Datsyuk, they've got Holmstrom, Holmstrom II (Franzen), Hudler, Cleary, Filpulla who can all score. They are a few concerns about injuries but most appear to be getting healthy as the playoffs begin. Almost all the forwards are excellent on defense and the team has the best faceoff percentage in the league.
To all the critics who say the Wings are too old or too soft, I say you need to take a fresh look. This isn't the 2003 Wings any more. The age statistic is more than a bit skewed by the presence of Chelios (#6 defenseman), Drake (4th line) and Hasek. Their two superstars up front are still young and they've got an even younger crew coming into their own. Softness was the first thing Babcock addressed after losing out to Edmonton in his first season and he's done quite well. People may not know players like the "mule" (Franzen), Cleary or Samuelson but they are extremely hard works and aren't afraid to fight for the pucks or get a little "dirty".
The Wings have a deeper squad than any team in the playoffs. They can role 4 good lines without concern. Should injuries occur, there are tested players in waiting set to fill the holes. Many of the players who'll be healthy scratches would be playing on other rosters. Their backup goalie may actually be the better goalie this season.
Speaking of goaltending, that may just be the critical piece to the Wings success. Even with limited shots, the Wings goalies are going to have to perform well to succeed. Babcock appears set to got with Hasek for the duration and it is hard to blame him given Hasek's past playoff performances. However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got wonder if Osgood might be the better choice. Hasek is a fierce competitor and wouldn't accept the backup role quietly so it is certainly easier to go with him first. But Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform. I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for.
Oh, there is another team scheduled to be on the ice. Nashville has done an amazing job dealing with the overhaul of their roster in the last year. They should be commended for actually making in into the playoffs. They play very sound, disciplined hockey and have excellent coaching and a lot of hard-working, gritty players. They'll be best served to be extremely patient with the Wings and hope to cash in on the few miscues the Wings allow. Any chance of staging an upset rests with their ability to shutdown Zetterberg and Datysuk while getting superb goaltending. A fast start and a game 1 victory might be their only hope. They'll play the Wings tougher than expected but come up short because the Wings have much more depth and better secondary scoring.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
At the time of this writing, the first game in this series has been played and Calgary won it 3-2. The results of that game do not change my prediction or my analysis even if they do bode well for Calgary.
This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch. Its got everything that makes hockey fun to watch. You've got offensive stars with Calgary's Iginla and San Jose's Joe Thorton. You've hard hitting punishing checkers led by Calgary's Dion Phaneuf. Both teams feature superb workhorse goaltending with Kiprosoff and Nabakov. The men behind the bench, Keenan & Wilson, are among the more experienced in the NHL. You've got two clubs that have seriously underperformed in the last few playoff years with fans ready to get ugly if things don't turn out well. This is especially true in San Jose where a quick exit could result in Wilson getting fired despite several successful regular seasons and a well developed roster.
The intensity here should be amazing and game one didn't disappoint. Goals aren't going to come easy and neither team is going to go down easy. The goalie who performs best may just dictate the outcome as Kiprosoff did in game 1.
Where I think San Jose will prevail is scoring depth. Calgary doesn't have the secondary scoring that San Jose can roll. Adding defenseman Campbell at the trade deadline should give the Sharks an added dimension on the back end. Any chance Campbell has of sticking around San Jose for the long haul will depend on a successful playoff run.
Anything less than an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals will be seen as a disappointment in San Jose. That is tough expectations and one only two other teams face (Anaheim & Detroit). But both those teams have already won the cup in recent years and know what it takes to get over the hump. The journey begins with a tough matchup for San Jose and it won't get any easier. It should be a fun ride to watch.
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
As of this writing, game 1 in the series has been played with Colorado winning 3-2 in overtime. Certainly an outcome that was no surprise to me.
I haven't seen many of Minnesota games this season but I know their reputation. Above all else they are a sound defensive team. The play a style of hockey very similar to the neutral zone trap crap that New Jersey play to success for so many years. It makes for an extremely boring watch as scoring chances are minimized and 2-1 and 3-2 games are the norm. Minnesota tries to balance their defense with some timely scoring from skilled players like Gaborik. Along Gaborik has been given some additional freedom to be creative this year, he doesn't wander far from the Wild's defensive roots.
Colorado plays opportunistic hockey taking advantage of skill offensive playmakers and relying on strong goaltending over defense. This has been a problem at times for them this season as playmakers have been injured or their goalies have struggled. However, goaltending has been much stronger lately as Theodore has refound the form that made him successful years ago in Montreal and it is about time as he was being paid a bundle to ride the bench until this season. With Sakic, Stasny and a healthy Forsberg (for now) Colorado certainly has a chance to pull the Minny upset but I think Minnesota's boring approach will get them to the second round. Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series. Colorado biggest advantage may be their crew of timely goal scorers. Sakic, Smyth, Forsberg and even Foote have been know get a goal when it is most needed. How many will they produce in this round?
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
I could tell you to look at my description for the New Jersey / New York Rangers series as there are a bunch of similarities. Both teams are centered around defense first and I expect we'll see a lot of low scoring affairs and a couple OTs. However, I think this series will have a little bit more excitement because both teams have more potential to open it up a bit as well as be a bit more physical. The goaltending isn't up to the level of their Eastern counterpart but it's no slouch.
A big issue in this series will be a couple key injuries. Zubov's continuing problems are a huge issue for Dallas who desperate needs his contributions on both ends to have much of a chance. Ducks have their own issues up front with injuries and need to find consistent secondary scoring.
The monster trade that was supposed to help Dallas up front hasn't had much affect. Richards must find a way to contribute or Dallas's journey will be short. Turco must continue to carry the load for Dallas and be spectacular in the series to advance. The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars.
The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run.
CONCLUSION
I guess I'd be a remissed if I didn't offer up a Stanley Cup winner before the whole thing begins. I went with Detroit over Ottawa preseason and I'll stick with Detroit. They are improved at most positions over last season. I really can't go with Ottawa any more. I'll go with Penguins out of the East, another team that would make for a great finals. I like the makeup of their team and I'm simply not sold on Price in Montreal or that the Rangers can score consistently enough to advance far.
I like to pick a couple "dark horses" as well. I don't think the Rangers qualify as a Dark Horse in the East despite being the #5 seed. I'll go with Philly in the East and Calgary in the West (Kiprosoff becomes superhuman). These two teams are serious longshots consider the road they'll likely have to follow but they do have a lot of the tools necessary.
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
As a Wings fan, I'm pretty happy about this matchup. It isn't that I think Nashville will be a pushover. In fact, I think it will be a very difficult series. What I am thrilled about is Nashville is short plane ride from Detroit and road games will be start around 7PM my time instead of 10PM. You may be asking yourself, why is travel time such a big deal? Consider this. Last year the Wings had matchups with Calgary, San Jose and Edmonton. That's a lot of miles. It is especially significant when compared against teams from the East. For example, the New York Rangers could have travel plans involving New Jersey (bus ride), Philadelphia (bus ride) and Pittsburgh (short flight) all within the same time zone. Plus, those 10PM starts are brutal for me. One year the Wings played a triple overtime game against the Ducks. That game didn't end until almost 3AM. Makes it a bit tough to get up for work and actually think. If the Wings are going to reach the finals, there is going to be some travel involved. However, the less the better.
Detroit has a had a weird season jumping out to such a huge lead on the division and conference before faltering a bit during an 11 game stretch where they had injuries to their top 4 defensemen. They haven't had a significant game since early January. The players admitted that this has made it hard to stay focused for each contest. However, I think they have still played excellent hockey overall. During the course of the entire season they only had about 4 poorly played games. Its a huge credit to coach Babcock and the leadership on this team that they play hard every night.
The Wings have a solid defensive corp that stacks up with any unit in the league. The main reason Hasek and Osgood had such good GAA is because the defense in front of them allows very few shots and scoring chances. Looks like Stuart will return to the lineup making the defense even better. He brings a physical presence the Wings will definitely need in the coming weeks. Lidstrom and Kronwall both are threats to end up on the scoring sheet.
Up front the Wings have multiple scoring options. Beyond the superstars in Zetterberg and Datsyuk, they've got Holmstrom, Holmstrom II (Franzen), Hudler, Cleary, Filpulla who can all score. They are a few concerns about injuries but most appear to be getting healthy as the playoffs begin. Almost all the forwards are excellent on defense and the team has the best faceoff percentage in the league.
To all the critics who say the Wings are too old or too soft, I say you need to take a fresh look. This isn't the 2003 Wings any more. The age statistic is more than a bit skewed by the presence of Chelios (#6 defenseman), Drake (4th line) and Hasek. Their two superstars up front are still young and they've got an even younger crew coming into their own. Softness was the first thing Babcock addressed after losing out to Edmonton in his first season and he's done quite well. People may not know players like the "mule" (Franzen), Cleary or Samuelson but they are extremely hard works and aren't afraid to fight for the pucks or get a little "dirty".
The Wings have a deeper squad than any team in the playoffs. They can role 4 good lines without concern. Should injuries occur, there are tested players in waiting set to fill the holes. Many of the players who'll be healthy scratches would be playing on other rosters. Their backup goalie may actually be the better goalie this season.
Speaking of goaltending, that may just be the critical piece to the Wings success. Even with limited shots, the Wings goalies are going to have to perform well to succeed. Babcock appears set to got with Hasek for the duration and it is hard to blame him given Hasek's past playoff performances. However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got wonder if Osgood might be the better choice. Hasek is a fierce competitor and wouldn't accept the backup role quietly so it is certainly easier to go with him first. But Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform. I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for.
Oh, there is another team scheduled to be on the ice. Nashville has done an amazing job dealing with the overhaul of their roster in the last year. They should be commended for actually making in into the playoffs. They play very sound, disciplined hockey and have excellent coaching and a lot of hard-working, gritty players. They'll be best served to be extremely patient with the Wings and hope to cash in on the few miscues the Wings allow. Any chance of staging an upset rests with their ability to shutdown Zetterberg and Datysuk while getting superb goaltending. A fast start and a game 1 victory might be their only hope. They'll play the Wings tougher than expected but come up short because the Wings have much more depth and better secondary scoring.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
At the time of this writing, the first game in this series has been played and Calgary won it 3-2. The results of that game do not change my prediction or my analysis even if they do bode well for Calgary.
This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch. Its got everything that makes hockey fun to watch. You've got offensive stars with Calgary's Iginla and San Jose's Joe Thorton. You've hard hitting punishing checkers led by Calgary's Dion Phaneuf. Both teams feature superb workhorse goaltending with Kiprosoff and Nabakov. The men behind the bench, Keenan & Wilson, are among the more experienced in the NHL. You've got two clubs that have seriously underperformed in the last few playoff years with fans ready to get ugly if things don't turn out well. This is especially true in San Jose where a quick exit could result in Wilson getting fired despite several successful regular seasons and a well developed roster.
The intensity here should be amazing and game one didn't disappoint. Goals aren't going to come easy and neither team is going to go down easy. The goalie who performs best may just dictate the outcome as Kiprosoff did in game 1.
Where I think San Jose will prevail is scoring depth. Calgary doesn't have the secondary scoring that San Jose can roll. Adding defenseman Campbell at the trade deadline should give the Sharks an added dimension on the back end. Any chance Campbell has of sticking around San Jose for the long haul will depend on a successful playoff run.
Anything less than an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals will be seen as a disappointment in San Jose. That is tough expectations and one only two other teams face (Anaheim & Detroit). But both those teams have already won the cup in recent years and know what it takes to get over the hump. The journey begins with a tough matchup for San Jose and it won't get any easier. It should be a fun ride to watch.
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
As of this writing, game 1 in the series has been played with Colorado winning 3-2 in overtime. Certainly an outcome that was no surprise to me.
I haven't seen many of Minnesota games this season but I know their reputation. Above all else they are a sound defensive team. The play a style of hockey very similar to the neutral zone trap crap that New Jersey play to success for so many years. It makes for an extremely boring watch as scoring chances are minimized and 2-1 and 3-2 games are the norm. Minnesota tries to balance their defense with some timely scoring from skilled players like Gaborik. Along Gaborik has been given some additional freedom to be creative this year, he doesn't wander far from the Wild's defensive roots.
Colorado plays opportunistic hockey taking advantage of skill offensive playmakers and relying on strong goaltending over defense. This has been a problem at times for them this season as playmakers have been injured or their goalies have struggled. However, goaltending has been much stronger lately as Theodore has refound the form that made him successful years ago in Montreal and it is about time as he was being paid a bundle to ride the bench until this season. With Sakic, Stasny and a healthy Forsberg (for now) Colorado certainly has a chance to pull the Minny upset but I think Minnesota's boring approach will get them to the second round. Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series. Colorado biggest advantage may be their crew of timely goal scorers. Sakic, Smyth, Forsberg and even Foote have been know get a goal when it is most needed. How many will they produce in this round?
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
I could tell you to look at my description for the New Jersey / New York Rangers series as there are a bunch of similarities. Both teams are centered around defense first and I expect we'll see a lot of low scoring affairs and a couple OTs. However, I think this series will have a little bit more excitement because both teams have more potential to open it up a bit as well as be a bit more physical. The goaltending isn't up to the level of their Eastern counterpart but it's no slouch.
A big issue in this series will be a couple key injuries. Zubov's continuing problems are a huge issue for Dallas who desperate needs his contributions on both ends to have much of a chance. Ducks have their own issues up front with injuries and need to find consistent secondary scoring.
The monster trade that was supposed to help Dallas up front hasn't had much affect. Richards must find a way to contribute or Dallas's journey will be short. Turco must continue to carry the load for Dallas and be spectacular in the series to advance. The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars.
The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run.
CONCLUSION
I guess I'd be a remissed if I didn't offer up a Stanley Cup winner before the whole thing begins. I went with Detroit over Ottawa preseason and I'll stick with Detroit. They are improved at most positions over last season. I really can't go with Ottawa any more. I'll go with Penguins out of the East, another team that would make for a great finals. I like the makeup of their team and I'm simply not sold on Price in Montreal or that the Rangers can score consistently enough to advance far.
I like to pick a couple "dark horses" as well. I don't think the Rangers qualify as a Dark Horse in the East despite being the #5 seed. I'll go with Philly in the East and Calgary in the West (Kiprosoff becomes superhuman). These two teams are serious longshots consider the road they'll likely have to follow but they do have a lot of the tools necessary.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1
Another NHL season has come to conclusion. While the league had a ton of drama heading into the final weak of the season, the two teams I root for, Atlanta & Detroit haven't played a meaningful game in months. That's all about to change, at least for Detroit, as the second season begins!
Because there wasn't much drama in Atlanta or Detroit, I found myself watching a lot more hockey involving other teams this season. The only teams I didn't catch a lot of were the teams way out West that seem to have 80% of their games end around 1AM my time. But I already know those teams fairly well as the Wings have tussled with them in recent playoffs.
For history buffs (6 months is consider ancient history on the Internet), I did make preseason predictions. A lot of those were spot on. My prediction for the finals (Detroit-Ottawa) look a little shaky but a lot of the team-by-team were pretty good.
I'll start with Eastern Conference which features a ton young offense stars, an original six matchup, a bunch of penguins and a chicken.
Note about CONFIDENCE : This is represents how confident I feel that I've predicted the series winner, not the number of games. I'll be using this to score my predictions after the round is complete.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8
PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
Nothing quite like an original six matchup. Two teams with a storied history matching up for the upteenth time in playoff history. A bit of the luster is off this matchup as both the Boston Garden and Montreal Forum (orignal) are no longer the venues but the diehard fans remain and it should create a fantastic atmosphere.
Montreal completely fooled me in that I never thought they'd get so high so quick They did it by simply playing the most consistent hockey among a bunch on inconsistent teams in the Eastern Conference. A good combination of skilled offensive players and steady defenders in front of young up and coming goaltender. They are fantastic on the power play and Boston would be well served to play a patient game.
Boston has overperformed a bit this season and the fact that they made the playoffs has to be considered a success. If this team was in the Eastern Conference, they'd be playing golf or changing diapers at this point. The only way they steal the series is if they get superb goaltending out of Tim Thomas and somehow rattle Montreal's young goalkeeper, Price.
Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans.
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7
PREDICTION : Pittsburg in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
A tale of two teams headed in different directions. Honestly, I would have preferred a Pittsburgh-Washington or a Pittsburgh-Philadelphia matchup but this one has a bit of intrigue as well.
Ottawa seemed destined to return to the cup finals at the start of the season. Even as late as mid-January, they looked like a serious competitor. Heatley gets hurt and the team struggles. Heatley returns and the team continues to struggle. The coach gets fired and the team struggles. Goalies bitch and the team struggles. All the while, the players are unconfortably quiet. Only a second to last game beating of providence rivals Toronto keeps the team from falling from the playoffs altogether.
Ottawa has a ton of talent on its roster but just can seem to get it back together. From the outside it looks like are lacking in the leadership department. While Alfredsson is the unquestioned leader on the ice, it doesn't seem like anyone else fills the secondary leadership roles very well. Originally, I though a couple of wins could turn their season back around and make them a real threat in the playoffs. But that never happened and I don't think it'll suddenly happen in the first round.
On the other hand, their opponent appears sets for a long playoff run. Talent abounds on the playoff roster with some of the best skilled players in the game up front in Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. They also got plenty of good role players and couple who can lend a physical presence. However, their key to an extended run has to lie with their goaltending. Fleury is the starter and appears to have bounced back well from the injury that sidelined him for a long stretch. But they can't hesitate to turn over the reigns to Conklin who rescued the team once before.
Any chance Ottawa has depends on them getting off to a fast start and putting up some goals early. Breakdown the confidence of Fleury and make the Penguins turn to Conklin. Rattle Conklin as well and the series could turn. Ottawa might be wise to oepn things up a bit. Play some up tempo hockey. It might sound like the kiss of death against the likes of Crosby and Malkin but I don't think the Pens would expect it or be ready to adjust.
WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
It seems odd to even type that. Washington went from the bottom of the conference in January all the way up to the #3 seed and Carolina ended up kicked to the curb even though I think Carolina was a better team than Boston and would have had a better chance against Philly. However you look at it though, Washington deserved to be here. Their great play down the stretch was the most consistent in the Eastern Conference and Ovechkin showed everybody why he should be considered the best scorer in the NHL.
The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet. Although Washington does have a few playoff veterans, they are few and far between. Much like Pittsburgh last season, the Caps simply are seasoned for playoff play. Even their coach is a relative newcomer to the NHL playoffs and he may find that the motivation and coaching he's been providing won't fair as well against the playoff clubs as it did against the likes of Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay.
Philly has been a puzzle. At times they've look like serious contenders and other times they've look closer to last years version. I'm thinking the reality is somewhere in between but they'll have to play more consistent if they hope to make it to the second round. Defense and secondary scoring appear to be their Achille's heel and that is somewhat expected considering how many young guys they are trotting out there on a nightly basis. The big-money free agents are going to have to come up big to give the Flyers a chance and I'm thinking they'll do an adequate job.
Washington's best chance is much like Ottawa's. Shake up Philly's goaltending. Biron doesn't even have to perform poorly. Just get a couple goals past him early due to defensive miscues and the entire organization and fans may go into panic mode. Get the Flyers to turn to Nittimaki and the Caps will win the series. Just a whif of a goaltending controversy will Flyers fans running scared like Rocky from Clubber Lane. I pity the fools.
Flyers need to play this game tight and don't get into a shooting contest. Be patient and wait for their chances. Above all else, contain the Chicken. Let another player score, if necessary. Just don't let Ovie find the twine.
NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
Is there a way both teams can lose? I can't stand either of these teams. Now that New York plays almost the same boring style the Devils have played for years, I like them even less. This is not the contest you tell your hockey newbie fan to watch. Expect a lot of low scoring games with little back and forth action but some great goaltending. I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we same 4 or more. These teams both play it very close to the vest, play sound defense and have coaches who preach defensive responsibility above all else.
The Rangers have been a tough team to predict during the course of the season. For every two good showings, they'd have one bad one. Although Lundqvist has looked superb most to the season, he had one really bad stretch. They can score 4 or 5 goals one night, then go 6 or 7 games scoring 2 or less. Defense can be sound and then allow Montreal to stage a record comeback. Which team will show up for the series?
The Devils always seem to be in this position. Everyone seems ready to write them off and they put themselves into contention for the cup once again. Management has a way off putting together a collection of no-names and making them play great as a unit. As always, Brodeur is there to save the day in goal when things break down.
New York went out in the offseason and got two players to boost the offense up front. Although Gomez and Drury were nothing special in the regular season, this should be their time to shine. I also believe Jagr will finally wake up as he realizes this just might be his last cup run. In contrast, the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series. Expect Drury to score at least one game winner for his highlight reel.
If this game goes to a 7th contest. I want to personally smack the first guy who asks Mr. Messier if he has a prediction.
Next up is the Western Conference. Matchups feature the President's Trophy winner (Detroit), defending Stanley Cup champion (Anaheim) and the hottest team in hockey (San Jose). It might not have the offensive star power of the East but it makes up for it with superb defense, experienced goaltending and physical intimidating play. I don't think there is much doubt that the best teams are in the West. The question is will they beat each other up so much and travel so much that they've got little left for the finals.
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Because there wasn't much drama in Atlanta or Detroit, I found myself watching a lot more hockey involving other teams this season. The only teams I didn't catch a lot of were the teams way out West that seem to have 80% of their games end around 1AM my time. But I already know those teams fairly well as the Wings have tussled with them in recent playoffs.
For history buffs (6 months is consider ancient history on the Internet), I did make preseason predictions. A lot of those were spot on. My prediction for the finals (Detroit-Ottawa) look a little shaky but a lot of the team-by-team were pretty good.
I'll start with Eastern Conference which features a ton young offense stars, an original six matchup, a bunch of penguins and a chicken.
Note about CONFIDENCE : This is represents how confident I feel that I've predicted the series winner, not the number of games. I'll be using this to score my predictions after the round is complete.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8
PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
Nothing quite like an original six matchup. Two teams with a storied history matching up for the upteenth time in playoff history. A bit of the luster is off this matchup as both the Boston Garden and Montreal Forum (orignal) are no longer the venues but the diehard fans remain and it should create a fantastic atmosphere.
Montreal completely fooled me in that I never thought they'd get so high so quick They did it by simply playing the most consistent hockey among a bunch on inconsistent teams in the Eastern Conference. A good combination of skilled offensive players and steady defenders in front of young up and coming goaltender. They are fantastic on the power play and Boston would be well served to play a patient game.
Boston has overperformed a bit this season and the fact that they made the playoffs has to be considered a success. If this team was in the Eastern Conference, they'd be playing golf or changing diapers at this point. The only way they steal the series is if they get superb goaltending out of Tim Thomas and somehow rattle Montreal's young goalkeeper, Price.
Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans.
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7
PREDICTION : Pittsburg in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
A tale of two teams headed in different directions. Honestly, I would have preferred a Pittsburgh-Washington or a Pittsburgh-Philadelphia matchup but this one has a bit of intrigue as well.
Ottawa seemed destined to return to the cup finals at the start of the season. Even as late as mid-January, they looked like a serious competitor. Heatley gets hurt and the team struggles. Heatley returns and the team continues to struggle. The coach gets fired and the team struggles. Goalies bitch and the team struggles. All the while, the players are unconfortably quiet. Only a second to last game beating of providence rivals Toronto keeps the team from falling from the playoffs altogether.
Ottawa has a ton of talent on its roster but just can seem to get it back together. From the outside it looks like are lacking in the leadership department. While Alfredsson is the unquestioned leader on the ice, it doesn't seem like anyone else fills the secondary leadership roles very well. Originally, I though a couple of wins could turn their season back around and make them a real threat in the playoffs. But that never happened and I don't think it'll suddenly happen in the first round.
On the other hand, their opponent appears sets for a long playoff run. Talent abounds on the playoff roster with some of the best skilled players in the game up front in Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. They also got plenty of good role players and couple who can lend a physical presence. However, their key to an extended run has to lie with their goaltending. Fleury is the starter and appears to have bounced back well from the injury that sidelined him for a long stretch. But they can't hesitate to turn over the reigns to Conklin who rescued the team once before.
Any chance Ottawa has depends on them getting off to a fast start and putting up some goals early. Breakdown the confidence of Fleury and make the Penguins turn to Conklin. Rattle Conklin as well and the series could turn. Ottawa might be wise to oepn things up a bit. Play some up tempo hockey. It might sound like the kiss of death against the likes of Crosby and Malkin but I don't think the Pens would expect it or be ready to adjust.
WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
It seems odd to even type that. Washington went from the bottom of the conference in January all the way up to the #3 seed and Carolina ended up kicked to the curb even though I think Carolina was a better team than Boston and would have had a better chance against Philly. However you look at it though, Washington deserved to be here. Their great play down the stretch was the most consistent in the Eastern Conference and Ovechkin showed everybody why he should be considered the best scorer in the NHL.
The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet. Although Washington does have a few playoff veterans, they are few and far between. Much like Pittsburgh last season, the Caps simply are seasoned for playoff play. Even their coach is a relative newcomer to the NHL playoffs and he may find that the motivation and coaching he's been providing won't fair as well against the playoff clubs as it did against the likes of Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay.
Philly has been a puzzle. At times they've look like serious contenders and other times they've look closer to last years version. I'm thinking the reality is somewhere in between but they'll have to play more consistent if they hope to make it to the second round. Defense and secondary scoring appear to be their Achille's heel and that is somewhat expected considering how many young guys they are trotting out there on a nightly basis. The big-money free agents are going to have to come up big to give the Flyers a chance and I'm thinking they'll do an adequate job.
Washington's best chance is much like Ottawa's. Shake up Philly's goaltending. Biron doesn't even have to perform poorly. Just get a couple goals past him early due to defensive miscues and the entire organization and fans may go into panic mode. Get the Flyers to turn to Nittimaki and the Caps will win the series. Just a whif of a goaltending controversy will Flyers fans running scared like Rocky from Clubber Lane. I pity the fools.
Flyers need to play this game tight and don't get into a shooting contest. Be patient and wait for their chances. Above all else, contain the Chicken. Let another player score, if necessary. Just don't let Ovie find the twine.
NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
Is there a way both teams can lose? I can't stand either of these teams. Now that New York plays almost the same boring style the Devils have played for years, I like them even less. This is not the contest you tell your hockey newbie fan to watch. Expect a lot of low scoring games with little back and forth action but some great goaltending. I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we same 4 or more. These teams both play it very close to the vest, play sound defense and have coaches who preach defensive responsibility above all else.
The Rangers have been a tough team to predict during the course of the season. For every two good showings, they'd have one bad one. Although Lundqvist has looked superb most to the season, he had one really bad stretch. They can score 4 or 5 goals one night, then go 6 or 7 games scoring 2 or less. Defense can be sound and then allow Montreal to stage a record comeback. Which team will show up for the series?
The Devils always seem to be in this position. Everyone seems ready to write them off and they put themselves into contention for the cup once again. Management has a way off putting together a collection of no-names and making them play great as a unit. As always, Brodeur is there to save the day in goal when things break down.
New York went out in the offseason and got two players to boost the offense up front. Although Gomez and Drury were nothing special in the regular season, this should be their time to shine. I also believe Jagr will finally wake up as he realizes this just might be his last cup run. In contrast, the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series. Expect Drury to score at least one game winner for his highlight reel.
If this game goes to a 7th contest. I want to personally smack the first guy who asks Mr. Messier if he has a prediction.
Next up is the Western Conference. Matchups feature the President's Trophy winner (Detroit), defending Stanley Cup champion (Anaheim) and the hottest team in hockey (San Jose). It might not have the offensive star power of the East but it makes up for it with superb defense, experienced goaltending and physical intimidating play. I don't think there is much doubt that the best teams are in the West. The question is will they beat each other up so much and travel so much that they've got little left for the finals.
DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
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