Whew. The first round is finally over and the Wings have advanced. First round always seems to be the most challenging as teams have to adjust a bit to a new level of play and intensity. Plus, top teams have to deal with the added pressure of meeting lofty expectations. I think that is why you see some significant upsets in round 1 and this year was no different.
Reviewing my picks from Round 1:
MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7
Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.
Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.
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PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4
Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.
Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.
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WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7
Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.
Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.
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NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5
Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.
Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.
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DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6
Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.
Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".
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SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7
Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.
Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.
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MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6
Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.
Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.
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ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6
Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!
Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.
Taking the confidence factor into account:
A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :
Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%
I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.
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