EASTERN CONFERENCE
MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct.
Montreal had their problems against Boston on both the offense and defensive ends of the ice but I'm guessing they get a more consistent effort in round 2 after getting the first round under their belts. Their power play floundered but Philly will likely give them plenty of opportunities to work through it. I expect Montreal to come out flying and try to expose Philly's somewhat shallow defense. A top-level performance out of Biron early will be a key to keeping this series close. Montreal will almost certainly have a couple of lop-sided wins in the contest. The main question will be how the Flyers respond.
The Flyers will look to intimidate in any way possible. Hard checking and disciplined hockey will have to be the norm even more so than in the Capitals series. Getting bodies in front of the young Habs goalie and getting the ugly goals will keep the series close. The power play must continue its high level of performance, a task that'll be much more difficult against the more disciplined Canadiens who play quite well on the penalty kill.
I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners. The pressure is all on Montreal this series and if the Flyers can pull out a win in Montreal, the young Habs just might cave. Like most series, goaltending will be key. Which Price will show up?
PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
I think this series has got the makings of a classic. Two up and coming teams loaded with old and new stars. One team with a very good offense and another team with sound defense and excellent goaltending. Neither team has a glaring weakness and each weakness is a strength on the opposing roster. Which team is ready to rise to the occasion and take the next step. The Penguins are almost certain to find themselves in this round for years to come. The Rangers could be at a crossroad with Jagr, Shanahan and defensemen without contracts beyond this season. Will that add extra motivation for the Rangers?
The Penguins are a threat to score with just about every offensive possession. Players like Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar make it difficult enough 5 on 5. The Rangers cannot afford to make in 5 on 4. That means a player like Avery will have to control himself. Stupid penalties could be the difference in this series.
The Rangers will play it close to the vest, trying to get the Penguins to play a slow-tempo, hard-hitting affair. A 2-1 game is a much better formula for Ranger success than 5-4 because the Rangers have had difficulties scoring throughout much of the season. The Rangers will need timely goals and they've certainly got the crew for that with Shanahan, Jagr, Gomez and Drury leading the way. But if the Penguins can control that group (notice I didn't say stop), the Rangers will be stressed to find secondary scoring. Fluery needs to handle Avery in front of the net but he can't do it alone. His defense will have to do its work to make sure he isn't a factor.
I think we'll see some close contests and the OTs the Rangers missed in the first round. Will the usual scorers show up in OT or will new legends be born.
I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
It's turn back the clock time. Forsberg, Sakic, Foote, McCarty, Maltby, Osgood, Lidstrom, Chelios. Screw all that. This is 2008 and I'm not interested in the past. The reality of the situation is that these are distinctly different teams from their last playoff series many moons ago.
Colorado might be trying to relive the past but the Wings have moved on. Fresh blood abounds in Detroit where players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen and others are looking to make their own mark on Red Wings hockey history.
Detroit is the better defensive team. From the forwards on back they play sound defensive hockey. There were times during the Nashville series where they simply couldn't get the puck past the blueline or get a shot on goal for LONG stretches. The only thing that kept Nashville in the series was a couple mental lapses by an aging Hasek and outstanding goaltending by Ellis. With Osgood taking over in net, they don't have to worry as much. His mind doesn't wander and neither do his legs. The Wings defense feels more confident playing in front of him because they know what to expect. Osgood's all-star season was no fluke. He's been playing his best hockey the last 3-4 years.
Detroit can roll four forward lines and Foote can't be out there for all of them. Look for Babcock to consider splitting up Zetterberg and Datsyuk at some point in the series to exploit the matchup problems it creates. The fourth line played extremely well in the Nashville series and I don't see why that can't continue. If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick. Hudler seems to be coming into his own this post season.
Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast. The Wings will recognize this and come after them hard, something Minnesota failed to do for some reason. Stasny cannot afford to have another insignificant series. Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he's is certain to face much more pressure.
Colorado has done well to make it to this point but I don't think they can play much better. Detroit can play better than they did in round 1. Detroit is leaps and bounds better than Minnesota, especially on the offensive end. Colorado's best chance would be to get to Osgood early and make Babcock put Hasek back in. From there, who knows what'll happen.
SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars. San Jose can roll four hardworking lines but at times they struggle to get secondary scoring. The city of San Jose is excited about hosting another playoff round but in the backs of their minds and the backs of the player minds are past failures in getting beyond the second round. They have the pieces in place it is simply a matter of execution and discipline.
Meanwhile, the pressure is off the Stars. They've managed to beat one of the teams many had picked to win the cup and the did it in fairly decisive fashion. An opportunistic team that plays well with the lead as is backed by solid goaltending. Its a team full of role players but few superstars. The Stars best chance is for Turco to play his best, get Zubov healthy and get big performances out of Robiero (sp?), Richards and even Modano. Stealing a game in the Shark tank early would be huge.
San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle. They've got more offensive power than the Ducks and play a physical yet disciplined game. The key for them is to get their big stars (Thorton, Marleau) involved in the contest and to stay focused throughout the series.
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