Atlanta 4 - Washington 2
If any game was worthy of a first-hand observation report, this one was.
It was great to be back at Philip's Arena for the first non-exhibition hockey since mid-April. I was excited to witness a real game from my new roost. As expected, for an opening game against on of the better teams in hockey, the crowd was fairly large. However, even with a couple thousand seats now unavailable behind curtains, it appeared to be a little less than a sellout. I can't really blame those for not coming. I just hope the team can convince a few of those who are on the fence to come on down.
Good electricity from the extended introductions and good play by the Thrashers early quickly turned solemn and silent. Atlanta goalie, Andre Pavelec, collapse in front of his crease just before a faceoff was to occur at the other end. Team doctors and medical staff quickly got to him but he lay motionless for the better part of 15 minutes while doctors examined him. I couldn't help but think of the scene just a few seasons ago when the Red Wing's Jiri Fischer had to have his heart restarted on the ice. The good news was I noticed they were not performing CPR or trying to ventilate him. However, he never moved. After getting him strapped on a board he was wheeled off the ice on a stretcher. Plenty of well-wishing cheers but still no movement.
As fans we were left wondering what had happened. Nobody in our section had actually seen him fall because the action was at the other end. Thankfully, through the links of cell phones, text messages and the internet we got some more information. Pavelec had collapsed and was indeed unconscious when he left the building. He did regain consciousness at the hospital and appeared to be ok. As of this writing, he is still in the hospital with a concussion (likely from the fall) and is under observation.
I thought there might be discussion of postponing the game (they did so in the Wing's contest) but likelihood of that seem remote since it was opening night. Action started up again after 20 minutes. Players and coaches had brief meetings and Mason went in to replace Pavelec in net.
I almost expected this tragedy to take something away from the Thrashers and for the next couple of minutes they were a bit out of sorts. They committed one of their only mistakes of the night allowing the Capitals to put a pretty tic-tac-toe shot past Mason, the first shot he faced.
However, it wasn't long until the Thrashers were back to dominating the Capitals once again. They had a forecheck and offensive cycling like I've rarely seen in Atlanta (at least for the home team). On the defensive end they were in great position and getting the puck up the ice quick. Forwards and d-men were doing a great job of keeping the puck in the Caps zone. Finally, they were rewarded for their hard work when Kane scored the first goal of the season! This fan and many others finally could stand up and cheer again.
But the Thrashers didn't stop there. The almost got another one on some good net front presence but it was waved no goal as the refs lost sight of the puck. Ladd scored one on a nice deflection from the point. More pressure in front caused a Cap to attempt to cover the puck inside the crease which a ref actually caught! A penalty shot was awarded. Kane converted the shot and if he hadn't already turned the 14,000 people into fans with his Cooke KO or his first goal, this one surely did. 3-1!
The third period started with the Thrashers still controlling play but a defensemen got caught up ice. A quick turnover led to a fairly easy 2 on 1 goal for the Caps. Having scene this scenario far too often over the years and knowing the talent of the Caps, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach with only a one goal lead. Fortunately, the Thrashers continued to play extremely well and there weren't many good Capital shots. A icing situation forced by the Thrashers forecheck resulted in a quick goal off a faceoff by Modin. The Thrashers played great defense down the stretch including the last 1:20 when the Caps pulled their goalie.
It was an amazing performance under some extreme circumstances. They way the team responded showed quite a bit about the players on the roster and the coaches behind the bench. While it must have been hard for Mason to come into that situation, he handled it fairly well. None of the goals could be blamed on him. I think he can play better in terms of rebound control but he came up big when needed to. He had once save on Ovechkin that had Alex shaking his head in disbelief.
Normally, I'd agree with the media and pick Kane as the star of the game but in this contest it has to go to the medical staff, specialists and EMTs. I cannot believe how quick they responded to the situation.
Kane was a monster all night long. Not only the strongest puck handler, but he also delivered the biggest hits. At the beginning of the game I was thinking I should revise my prediction of 30G/70PTs down a bit (25/65). Maybe now I should RAISE them.
The former Blackhawks also played a big role. Not only did Ladd get on the board but Byfuglien was probably their best defenseman. Sopel was good at blocking shots (the team blocked a ton) and all made their physical presence know.
I was a bit shocked to see the rookie, Burmistov, playing on the penalty kill in his first NHL game. That's almost unheard of. Frankly, he did a very good job. He was also a force on the offensive end. He gets a bit over matched by size from time to time but has some speed, nice hands and some nifty moves.
They outplayed the Caps by a large margin, got more shots, more hits, more shot blocks and won more faceoffs. Those are categories the Thrashers rarely win, especially against teams like the Caps.
I don't want to get too excited because the Thrashers have looked good for a game or two before. However, I saw all the elements that were advertised to us, by the coaches, all offseason. A more physical, fore-checking team with an active yet responsible defense. Solid goaltending and good number of guys with good puck skills. This was no cupcake they beat. The Capitals wanted to come out strong after their lackluster playoff showing. It's a long season ahead but the first step was a mighty nice one.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
NHL 2010-11 Predictions
Once again time is running out on me. I always try to put these predictions out as late as possible so I can take into account the most recent injuries, acquisitions and lineup changes. At some point I’ve got to just dig in and do the write-up. It’s a tradition going back over twenty years although the forum for sharing the information and means of presentation changes a bit from year to year.
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
----
9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
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9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Stanley Cup Final
The end of the season is almost upon us but not before a battle between two teams looking end long droughts and finally sip from Lord Stanley's Cup.
First, a look back at last rounds predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45 - LOSS
Once again San Jose fell short of the ultimate goal. When it came down to it, most of the stars were not the biggest players on the biggest stage. Thorton had a miserable +/- and Heatley was almost non-existant. When Nabakoov makes his next timely save, it'll be his first and likely happen in another teams uniform. Chicago came to play and worked hard throughout the series. Niemi proved to everyone he is more than capable of delivering a Stanley Cup to Chicago. Chicago's secondary players did a much better job than San Jose's and essentially made the difference in the series. It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out in San Jose.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50 - WIN
I really wasn't surprised by the outcome in this series. I think Philly has way more talent than Montreal does and the Canadiens good luck was bound to run out. The fact that Gagne and Carter were able to return to the Flyers lineup made the task that much more difficult for the Habs. With their goaltending back to normal levels and with little scoring depth they were overwhelmed. The most disappointing aspect of the series is that each game was pretty much a blowout. Only a couple minutes of the entire series were played with the score close. The Flyers did a better job of grinding it out in the corners at both ends of the ice and that paid big dividends. The Montreal team that somehow shutdown the Capitals and Penguins skilled players wasn't capable of the same against a team determined to play into coach Laviolette's philosophy.
This round I went 1-1 (50%) with my predictions and $50 of $95 wagered (53%). Overall I'm 9-5 (64%) and $455 of $740 wagered (61%).
Now for the finals prediction
CHICAGO #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #7
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $80
Two teams who took two widely different paths to the final. Chicago started on the season as a Stanley Cup favorite and gave no reason throughout the season or playoffs to doubt that. They easily won the Central Division and were at or near the top of the West all year. The dispatched each of their playoff opponents with relative ease despite facing some tough opponents.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia it was a story of streaks. For every long winning streak, a similarly long losing streak was soon to follow. A team that looked like a Cup contender had problems all year with injuries to significant players. A question mark at goalie coming in became a sideshow during the season as injuries ravaged the position. But just when everything was coming apart late in the year a castoff goalie grabbed from the waiver wire got the Flyers back in the hunt. It took them a shootout victory on the last game of the season to make the playoffs but with it they were given an opportunity to reclaim their season.
Frankly, I liked the makeup of this Flyer squad from the beginning of the season. Just the right mix of youth and experience and plenty of grit. There were some questions about leadership and chemistry but the playoffs have brought out their best. Like many my biggest question mark was goaltending. Was it enough?
The Flyers have had some good fortune in these playoffs. They manage to avoid the two offensive juggernauts in the East (Capitals & Penguins) and faced a couple of overacheivers (New Jersey, Montreal). This test will be a completely different magnitude. While I think the Flyers will be far more competitive than a lot of people expect, I think their goaltending will finally be victimized against a damn good offensive opponent.
Chicago may not have the experience of the Flyers but they present huge matchup problems. With high level skill 3 lines deep, the Flyers will be chasing them a lot. This is precisely the type of team that tends to victimize Pronger. While a big body in front of the net or at the point, one thing Pronger isn't is swift of foot. It the Hawks can get him chasing, it'll lead to mistakes and penalties.
The Hawks aren't short on grit and Byfuglien will give them fits in front of the net. While the defense is chasing the likes of Kane, Towes, Sharp and Hossa, grinders like Bolland, Ladd and Versteeg will sneak in on net. Chicago is also more dynamic on defense. More depth at the blueline and the capability to turn it around on offense may expose some of the Flyers less disciplined skaters.
But all is not lost for the Flyers. They possess a very good powerplay and a dangerous penalty kill. If Chicago makes poor decisions and winds up in the box the series could turn into a toss up. The Flyers cannot take bad penalties. If this means keep Carcillo on the bench, then it must be done.
The Flyers best chance lies with jumping to early leads, building confidence and keep the Blackhawk fans quiet. The Flyers must win on home ice and hope they can steal an early game in Chicago.
Here's hoping it is a great series and we can end the season with a bang. One team will get to raise the cup for the first time in 35 (Philly) or 49 (Chicago) years. To rapid fan bases are ready to explode.
First, a look back at last rounds predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45 - LOSS
Once again San Jose fell short of the ultimate goal. When it came down to it, most of the stars were not the biggest players on the biggest stage. Thorton had a miserable +/- and Heatley was almost non-existant. When Nabakoov makes his next timely save, it'll be his first and likely happen in another teams uniform. Chicago came to play and worked hard throughout the series. Niemi proved to everyone he is more than capable of delivering a Stanley Cup to Chicago. Chicago's secondary players did a much better job than San Jose's and essentially made the difference in the series. It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out in San Jose.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50 - WIN
I really wasn't surprised by the outcome in this series. I think Philly has way more talent than Montreal does and the Canadiens good luck was bound to run out. The fact that Gagne and Carter were able to return to the Flyers lineup made the task that much more difficult for the Habs. With their goaltending back to normal levels and with little scoring depth they were overwhelmed. The most disappointing aspect of the series is that each game was pretty much a blowout. Only a couple minutes of the entire series were played with the score close. The Flyers did a better job of grinding it out in the corners at both ends of the ice and that paid big dividends. The Montreal team that somehow shutdown the Capitals and Penguins skilled players wasn't capable of the same against a team determined to play into coach Laviolette's philosophy.
This round I went 1-1 (50%) with my predictions and $50 of $95 wagered (53%). Overall I'm 9-5 (64%) and $455 of $740 wagered (61%).
Now for the finals prediction
CHICAGO #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #7
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $80
Two teams who took two widely different paths to the final. Chicago started on the season as a Stanley Cup favorite and gave no reason throughout the season or playoffs to doubt that. They easily won the Central Division and were at or near the top of the West all year. The dispatched each of their playoff opponents with relative ease despite facing some tough opponents.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia it was a story of streaks. For every long winning streak, a similarly long losing streak was soon to follow. A team that looked like a Cup contender had problems all year with injuries to significant players. A question mark at goalie coming in became a sideshow during the season as injuries ravaged the position. But just when everything was coming apart late in the year a castoff goalie grabbed from the waiver wire got the Flyers back in the hunt. It took them a shootout victory on the last game of the season to make the playoffs but with it they were given an opportunity to reclaim their season.
Frankly, I liked the makeup of this Flyer squad from the beginning of the season. Just the right mix of youth and experience and plenty of grit. There were some questions about leadership and chemistry but the playoffs have brought out their best. Like many my biggest question mark was goaltending. Was it enough?
The Flyers have had some good fortune in these playoffs. They manage to avoid the two offensive juggernauts in the East (Capitals & Penguins) and faced a couple of overacheivers (New Jersey, Montreal). This test will be a completely different magnitude. While I think the Flyers will be far more competitive than a lot of people expect, I think their goaltending will finally be victimized against a damn good offensive opponent.
Chicago may not have the experience of the Flyers but they present huge matchup problems. With high level skill 3 lines deep, the Flyers will be chasing them a lot. This is precisely the type of team that tends to victimize Pronger. While a big body in front of the net or at the point, one thing Pronger isn't is swift of foot. It the Hawks can get him chasing, it'll lead to mistakes and penalties.
The Hawks aren't short on grit and Byfuglien will give them fits in front of the net. While the defense is chasing the likes of Kane, Towes, Sharp and Hossa, grinders like Bolland, Ladd and Versteeg will sneak in on net. Chicago is also more dynamic on defense. More depth at the blueline and the capability to turn it around on offense may expose some of the Flyers less disciplined skaters.
But all is not lost for the Flyers. They possess a very good powerplay and a dangerous penalty kill. If Chicago makes poor decisions and winds up in the box the series could turn into a toss up. The Flyers cannot take bad penalties. If this means keep Carcillo on the bench, then it must be done.
The Flyers best chance lies with jumping to early leads, building confidence and keep the Blackhawk fans quiet. The Flyers must win on home ice and hope they can steal an early game in Chicago.
Here's hoping it is a great series and we can end the season with a bang. One team will get to raise the cup for the first time in 35 (Philly) or 49 (Chicago) years. To rapid fan bases are ready to explode.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3
Just realized I hadn't made predictions for this round when I turned to watch the first game. I'll quickly get the predictions out there and try to fill in the blanks as time permits.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50
Thursday, April 29, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2
No rest for the weary. After dealing with multiple late night West coast games in round 1, I'll be enduring more in round 2 when the Wings head to San Jose. Less than 24 hours after the last game of round one is completed, round 2 begins. I've got to get these predictions out. I'm under the gun.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions
It's that time of year again. The NHL playoffs are set to begin. It's become a yearly ritual for me to make predictions with comments. It seems like every year it is a bit more challenging. So many teams are capable of winning a series. So many goaltenders are capable of stealing a game or two to change the momentum. Every team has some question marks as well as strengths.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
NHL Predictions - A Look Back
Before I dive head-first into playoff predictions, I need to look back and see how well I did with my preseason predictions.
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Thrashers Game Report - 01/09/10
Washington 8 - Atlanta 1
I should have known when I had to spend double my usual for parking because of a monster truck event that I was in for a bad evening. I had hope the Thrashers could build on the victory versus the Rangers that I witnesses just two days prior.
I'm not going to bore you with goal by goal details because frankly I cannot relive that painful night.
Everything started pretty well. There was a really good crowd on hand, the best I've seen since opening night. Despite lots of cocky Capital fans sitting around me while I ate my stadium fare, the energy they brought to the building was nice.
When the puck first dropped, the Thrashers came out and played some pretty good hockey. But when the Captials scored first, you couldn't help but get the feeling of "here we go again". The frustration of the players was easily exceeded by the frustration of the fans. When they left the ice down 3-0 after the first, the boos rang down loud and clear.
It didn't get any better the rest of the game. Each time the Thrashers tried to move the puck up the ice, they'd make a critical mistake. Each time the gave a Capital some space, he'd get the puck into the net. At one point they had 4 goals on 9 shots. The Thrashers had zero energy, zero passion and looked like children skating amongst men.
The final tally was 8-1 but there were much worse things than the score. It appeared that less than a handful of players seemed to care about what was happening on ice. Only a couple played each shift hard (Enstrom and Kane were the two I noticed). They were outhustled to every loose puck and didn't even ramp up the physicality when the game was out of reach.
I think it is time for some radical changes. The easiest would be to fire Anderson and replace him with Cunnyworth. Todd White needs to be replaced or at least demoted. His only vital role is on the penalty kill and he simply coasts 90% of the time. Same goes for Kozlov who is only effective in the shootout. While well liked by his teammates, Kozlov must be benched for the better of the team. Finally, a serious ass kicking is needed to light a fire under all players and those that don't bring more energy must be held accountable.
As I write this, the Thrashers are playing a game I consider "must-win". Any hopes of making the playoffs depend on getting more points during this homestand. Anderson has made a couple moves effectively demoting both Kozlov and White to the 4th line. Why he didn't do this weeks ago is beyond me. So far so good. That line has accounted for 3 goals and the Thrashers lead 6-1!
However, the real test will be whether or not they can sustain good play. A single win will not get them back into the thick of the race. A hard stretch awaits just before the Olympic break and they need to get themselves a bit of cushion before then. Only time will tell.
I should have known when I had to spend double my usual for parking because of a monster truck event that I was in for a bad evening. I had hope the Thrashers could build on the victory versus the Rangers that I witnesses just two days prior.
I'm not going to bore you with goal by goal details because frankly I cannot relive that painful night.
Everything started pretty well. There was a really good crowd on hand, the best I've seen since opening night. Despite lots of cocky Capital fans sitting around me while I ate my stadium fare, the energy they brought to the building was nice.
When the puck first dropped, the Thrashers came out and played some pretty good hockey. But when the Captials scored first, you couldn't help but get the feeling of "here we go again". The frustration of the players was easily exceeded by the frustration of the fans. When they left the ice down 3-0 after the first, the boos rang down loud and clear.
It didn't get any better the rest of the game. Each time the Thrashers tried to move the puck up the ice, they'd make a critical mistake. Each time the gave a Capital some space, he'd get the puck into the net. At one point they had 4 goals on 9 shots. The Thrashers had zero energy, zero passion and looked like children skating amongst men.
The final tally was 8-1 but there were much worse things than the score. It appeared that less than a handful of players seemed to care about what was happening on ice. Only a couple played each shift hard (Enstrom and Kane were the two I noticed). They were outhustled to every loose puck and didn't even ramp up the physicality when the game was out of reach.
I think it is time for some radical changes. The easiest would be to fire Anderson and replace him with Cunnyworth. Todd White needs to be replaced or at least demoted. His only vital role is on the penalty kill and he simply coasts 90% of the time. Same goes for Kozlov who is only effective in the shootout. While well liked by his teammates, Kozlov must be benched for the better of the team. Finally, a serious ass kicking is needed to light a fire under all players and those that don't bring more energy must be held accountable.
As I write this, the Thrashers are playing a game I consider "must-win". Any hopes of making the playoffs depend on getting more points during this homestand. Anderson has made a couple moves effectively demoting both Kozlov and White to the 4th line. Why he didn't do this weeks ago is beyond me. So far so good. That line has accounted for 3 goals and the Thrashers lead 6-1!
However, the real test will be whether or not they can sustain good play. A single win will not get them back into the thick of the race. A hard stretch awaits just before the Olympic break and they need to get themselves a bit of cushion before then. Only time will tell.
Thrashers Game Report - 01/07/10
Atlanta 2 - New York Rangers 1 SO
First home game of the year, first back from a very unsuccessful roadtrip. Despite the threat of snow and ice, I shuffled my ass down to the arena to see if maybe the team could turn fortunes around on home ice.
The Thrashers came out strong and controlled a good portion of early play. If not for the superb play of New York's rookie goaltender and a couple of goalposts, the Thrashers might have scored 2 or 3 goals. Instead they headed for the lockerroom tied at 0-0.
New York sees a bit of jump in the second period and manages to create a nice deflection in front the net to give them a 1-0 lead.
Neither team generates much offense for the remainder of the contest making for quite a boring affair. While it was nice to see the Thrashers play some sound defense for a change, I was worried the good play might be wasted. But with a little more than 6 minutes remaining, Slater broke free and brought the arena to its feet when he scored.
From that point it seemed both teams were content to get to OT and get at least a single point. Once in OT the Thrashers looked like a team worried they were going to lose instead of playing to win. The Rangers had multiple opportunities but simply couldn't cash in. The game was headed to the shootout.
While superstars Kovalchuk couldn't deliver in the shootout, specialist Kozlov did. Add another by Little and a few saves by Hedberg and the Thrashers managed to beat the Rangers once more. With 3 wins in 3 tries against the boys from New York, it is a shame they can't play them more often.
Not much better than beating the Rangers!
First home game of the year, first back from a very unsuccessful roadtrip. Despite the threat of snow and ice, I shuffled my ass down to the arena to see if maybe the team could turn fortunes around on home ice.
The Thrashers came out strong and controlled a good portion of early play. If not for the superb play of New York's rookie goaltender and a couple of goalposts, the Thrashers might have scored 2 or 3 goals. Instead they headed for the lockerroom tied at 0-0.
New York sees a bit of jump in the second period and manages to create a nice deflection in front the net to give them a 1-0 lead.
Neither team generates much offense for the remainder of the contest making for quite a boring affair. While it was nice to see the Thrashers play some sound defense for a change, I was worried the good play might be wasted. But with a little more than 6 minutes remaining, Slater broke free and brought the arena to its feet when he scored.
From that point it seemed both teams were content to get to OT and get at least a single point. Once in OT the Thrashers looked like a team worried they were going to lose instead of playing to win. The Rangers had multiple opportunities but simply couldn't cash in. The game was headed to the shootout.
While superstars Kovalchuk couldn't deliver in the shootout, specialist Kozlov did. Add another by Little and a few saves by Hedberg and the Thrashers managed to beat the Rangers once more. With 3 wins in 3 tries against the boys from New York, it is a shame they can't play them more often.
Not much better than beating the Rangers!
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