Sunday, July 24, 2011

California Trip - Epilogue

Just in case you were wondering, the trip home to Georgia was uneventful and on time. The heat and humidity in Atlanta didn't take long to zap the last little bit of energy from us.

All in all I considered the trip a smashing success and I had a wonderful time. I'm pretty sure Crimson enjoyed it as well. While it is pretty easy to say Crimson enjoyed Venice Beach the best, it isn't as easy for me to pick my highlight. I'd probably have to go with the "journey". Although long and taxing at times, the sights along the way were well worth it. Everything from giraffes in San Diego, crazies on Venice Beach, and friends in San Francisco contributed to a great trip.

If I did it again, I wouldn't change much. Perhaps I'd cancel Santa Monica for a longer stay at Venice Beach. I might cancel the trip to Monterrey aquarium. Maybe add a day to San Francisco or LA to see a bit more. However, the reality is I couldn't have asked for a much better trip.

If you made it this far reading the blog, thank you. The words flowed pretty quick but it was a bit of work. Fortunately, it was a labor of love.

See you after my next journey.

California Trip - Day 12 - San Francisco Part 2

After a long day we needed the extra rest so I decided to let our last day in California set its own pace.

The first thing we were trying to do was get to Alcatraz. I thought that getting on a boat on standby would be near impossible when tickets had been sold out about 10 days in advance. However, we were able to get on the 11:30 boat despite arriving at 11:20. As a bonus, the weather was quite a bit nicer than when we were originally scheduled to go.



Crimson and I both liked the tour. The fact that the audio tour is narrated by former guards and inmates makes it even more interesting. When we'd seen everything we wanted to see, we were just in time to catch a boat back to the mainland.



We wanted to have lunch at In n Out Burger since I'd heard it was one of the best fast food restaurants without a location in Atlanta. However, first we stopped by Pier 39 and Fisherman's Wharf. Obviously Crimson was hungry or just didn't care because unlike Venice Beach she was in a hurry to get on with it.

In n Out Burger was good but not great although certainly one of our most reasonably priced meals on the trip. For dessert, it was of to Ghiradelli Square to load up any extra space we had in our travel bags with chocolate!

One more stop before an official end to our tourism. We (or I) had to see the Pacific Pinball Museum in Alamaeda. It's one of the best collections of pinball machines that are playable in the country. I promised Crimson to keep the visit relatively short and kept my word by staying only 90 minutes. We had fun playing a lot of games I've never played before. On this day, Crimson was the better player than me.

This night we stayed near the hotel as our flight left at 7AM the next morning. It took us awhile to find somewhere to eat but when we did we hit the jackpot. Big Joe's Cafe had great diner style food, huge portions and very reasonable prices.

Califronia Trip - Day 11 - Beyond San Francisco

Since I didn't have time to drive to Seattle or even Portland, I did want to see something a little beyond San Francisco. Today was that day. As usual, things started off cool and foggy.

The first stop was a walk across a section of the Golden Gate Bridge. If Crimson was scared, I couldn't tell because she was huddled up inside her coat trying to keep warm.



From there it was on to Point Bonita for more vistas. It turned out Crimson enjoyed walking around the old battery at Fort Barry. The haunting quality of the sight had her a bit on edge but she had fun climbing around and exploring.



We had lunch at Muir Beach overlook where the clouds surrounded us. From there it was up the coast seeking more beautiful spots among the twisting turns of the road. This journey took a good deal of time and patience and when we finally reached our final destination, Salt Point State Park, I thought we'd come for nothing. I couldn't see much of anything interesting from the road.

We parked and starting walking towards the coast. Here, we found the rock formations I had seen and Crimson had a good time climbing around on them. It had actually warmed up a bit and it was great to be out of the car for awhile before the long and twisty drive back to San Francisco.



We went to have dinner with John and Svengi despite me almost canceling due to exhaustion. I'm glad we went as we had a fabulous time with them. A late night but well worth it to have some home cooked food and good company.

California Trip - Day 10 - San Francisco Part 1

San Francisco is normally pretty cool this time of year but 10 degrees cooler on this particular day. We briefly check out the almost vacant Ocean Beach before finding the Camera Obscura closed. No huge problem, as it is still a nice place to take some pictures.



From there it is on to Crissy Field and a walk towards the Golden Gate Bridge. Facing a stiff breeze in our face, we work our way there, then quickly head back.



I mention to Crimson that the Exploratorium is just around the corner and she shows interest. When planning the trip she didn't seem interested so I really hadn't budgeted any time for it. When went in anyway and to see it.

We were both thoroughly impressed. This was easily the best science museum I had ever seen with hundreds of interactive exhibits. We spent about and hour and a half in there and easily could have spend another hour or two. Great place for kids and adults.

For lunch we met up with an old friend, John and his wife, Svengi. We got to enjoy some quick Chinese food before our scheduled trip to Alcatraz. We made plans to hook up with them for dinner the next night.

We were cutting it close to make our boat to Alcatraz. Unfortunately, the GPS chose this moment to route me on a less than ideal path. We got stuck behind slow bus after slow bus on the heavily traveled Market Street. We found a parking spot and race to the pier only to see our boat pulling away. We'd missed it by less the 5 minutes. Were we given standby tickets and hoped to use them in two days.

So, we checked out the ferry plaza and took some pictures of the city skyline from Pier 14 before heading to our hotel in Union Square. Dinner on this night was at the Cheesecake Factory on the top floor of Macy's. A little cold outside but the food was good.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

California Trip - Day 9 - Castle, Seals and Big Sur



First stop on the long day was the famous Hearst Castle just 2 minutes from our hotel. Just as impressive as the castle itself is the huge chunk of land surrounding it. It was a bus ride up into the clouds to reach the castle and it got cooler as we ascended. The guided tour was informative although a little dull. Both Crimson and I had more fun walking around unguided after the segment. The pool was truly impressive and we couldn't help but wonder if the employees had a bash there once or twice a year.

Next stop was Piedras Blancas and the elephant seals. Crimson had been asking me for days when we would see them and this was our first shot with the exception of a lone seal on our kayaking trip in La Jolla. These were big beasts but fairly distant and not very active.

What stood between us and the next major city was Big Sur. A beautiful section of coastal California where mountains meet the ocean with only a small strip of road in between. It was tough to stay focused on the road with all the pretty sights before my eyes. There were numerous delays for one lane roads and some construction but there were also opportunities to pull aside and snap some pics.



We stopped to view California's only coastal waterfall and were underwhelmed by its size. It looked like a garden hose to me. I think I was spoiled by the hundreds of falls in Iceland.

We finally reached Monterey after 3PM quite hungry. So, before hitting the aquarium we stopped stop for food at the Bubba Gump Shrimp Co. We made quick work of the aquarium since both of us seen much of the same before.

We had more fun watching the seals in their somewhat natural environment under the pier in Santa Cruz. Crimson couldn't get enough of it and probably would have slept with seals if I let her.



When I though we were done with twisty turning roads, I got one more taste with Devil's Slide next to our hotel stop in Pacifica, very close to San Francisco. The hotel was brand new and pizza delivery to the room was a perfect end to a long day.

Friday, July 22, 2011

California Trip - Day 8 - Santa Barbara & Wall of Gum

We awoke to the coolest weather of the trip with temps hovering mid to upper 50s for good part of the day. The "June Swoon" (fog that typically covers the California coastline during most of the summer) was in full affect. Crimson struggled with the cold a little more than me but kept refusing opportunities to purchase some warmer gear. I guess staying in style has its price.

This day was probably the shortest and least active of all our days. This was fairly intentional as the days surrounding it were packed to the gills.

First off was Santa Barbara. I think this site would have been a bit nicer had the weather been warmer. We checked out the beach front and harbor, ate Fish & Chips at the pier and did a little walking around town. We went up to the top of the tower of the really nice courthouse for a good view of the red tile rooftops.



One of the stranger events was our experience with the bus. First we had trouble deciphering which bus was going where. When I asked for assistance the driver told us his bus would take us downtown. We got on and ended up on the other side of town at "the end of the line". When I mentioned our prior discussion to the driver he said, "I don't remember talking to you". It wasn't as if hours had passed or a lot of passengers had confused him. It had been about 10 minutes and only 5 passengers including us. We eventually got pointed in the right direction and had a good laugh.

Next up was a stop I was really looking for to. Three miles from Guadalupe are the largest coastal dunes in the U.S. Unfortunately, when we got there, access was closed on Monday & Tuesday. Oh well, everything can't go perfect.

From there it was to another swinging pedestrian bridge in Arroyo Grande originally built in 1875. Just as the last in San Diego, Crimson would have none of it. I don't know what the obsession was with bridges on this trip. Maybe I was gearing up for the Golden Gate. Maybe it was the equivalent of waterfalls in Iceland?

Up next was San Luis Obispo. Given our desire to keep this day short, we had only one stop in mind, Bubblegum Alley. A pictures is worth thousand words or maybe just one?





A brief stop at the cold windy shores of Morro Boy was it before settling down at our hotel in San Simeon. Due to limited choices and convenience it was Mexican dinner again. It was decent but after that we'd had enough Mexican for the trip.

California Trip - Day 7 - Six Flags Magic Mountain

This was one day I knew Crimson was looking forward to. She's a roller coaster enthusiast, making this the perfect park for her. With 18 coasters total, it's the most in the world.

Since the park didn't open until 10:30 and we were staying right next to it, we actually go a bit more sleep than usual. We were going to need it for this nice long hot day. Now that we were inland, the temps spiked up to 90F but at least the humidity wasn't as high as home. A 5 minute shuttle ride from the hotel to the park saved us $15 parking.

It was a great day to go. The lines were very short except for a couple allowing us to ride everything we wanted to. Unfortunately, the world's tallest, fastest and longest flying coaster, Tatsu wasn't working all day.

Our favorites were probably X2 & Deja Vu (wish they still had it here):





At 5:30 we had pretty much covered everything we want to see and set off back to the coast and our hotel in Ventura. This particular hotel was easily the worse of the bunch. We did find some decent Mexican food right across the street where one of the patrons was a genuine Hell's Angel.

California Trip - Day 6 - LA Beaches

If we were going to see some of the L.A. beaches, on a weekend no less, we'd have to pick a choose carefully and get a somewhat early start. We were starting to get a little tired of the slim pickings for breakfast at the hotel and started eating our breakfast groceries instead. Pop-tarts, muffins and cereal bars filled the whole until lunchtime.

First, we took a route most would overlook, hugging the coast through Palos Verdes instead of cutting across it. I'm glad we did because it was a beautiful section.

From there is was on to Venice Beach. Knowing it was going to be swamped, I grabbed parking at the first lot I could find close to the boardwalk. It cost $17 but was much better than walking a mile to and from the car.



A quick look at the canals left Crimson unimpressed and we made our way to the boardwalk. We watched several street performers (both good and bad), looked at peoples arts & crafts, gazed into many shops, people watched and had a nice lunch at a street cafe. We stayed longer than I originally expected and Crimson didn't want to leave. In fact, she kept mentioning that she wanted to return at various points during our trip. This worried me a bit. It was the festival atmosphere that seemed to draw her to it.

From there it was on to Santa Monica. Fortunately, there were parking garages around this area because the placed was jammed packed. Tons of people in and around the water. I found the place a bit underwhelming and would have spent the time at Venice Beach had I known it. With the next day set for Six Flags Magic Mountain, the tiny coaster wasn't much of a thought.



Next up was the journey to Malibu. We stopped along PCH when we spotted a parking spot to take a quick look at a public beach access and then went to Malibu Bluffs Park for some nice views. Crimson was exhausted and asleep from this point on as I drove through to Oxnard and back inland towards our hotel in Valencia next to Six Flags. I actually found the trip from Malibu to Oxnard to Valencia more scenic than the one from Santa Monica to Malibu although some of the houses around Malibu were incredible.

Upon reaching the hotel, I had work to do as we'd reached the midway point of our trip and we were running out of clean clothes. We ordered some pretty good, albeit expensive, room service, watched some Sunday night TV and did laundry.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

California Trip - Day 5 - O.C. Beaches / Weird Al

I got the sense that Crimson was a little disappointed by the mall viewing of the Hollywood sign so we made a quick detour to Griffith Park Observatory. The view was a little better and near the best you'll get without some hiking, which was the last thing Crimson wanted to do. The bonus was we had a nice view of the L.A. skyline as well. As usual, the skyline was covered in a sickening smog.

Next up was a visit to Rodeo Drive. Since Crimson had been warned before hand that the budget didn't permit any shopping, the visit was pretty quick. Just a nice walk up and down a couple of blocks.

Now it was time to return to the coast. I was determined to see most of it so we headed back to almost where we left off starting a Dana Point. We worked out way North with the intention of seeing many beaches. I quickly realized this would be impossible due to traffic and parking issues.

Our first stop was Laguna Beach but we had to park about a mile away and walk to it. Crimson got to watch some people playing volleyball and critique them and I got to snap a few pics.



Next up was Newport Beach and the Balboa Peninsula. Despite it being pretty late in the day it took a long time to get out to the tip and find some parking. But the time was worth it as we got to watch some people risk body surfing at the "Wedge". It wasn't exactly warm (about 70 degrees) so Crimson and I had little interest in getting in the water.



We skipped a couple of the beach stops I had planned as our time was running out. We got to our hotel in Long Beach with only 10 minutes to spare before we needed to head back South to Costa Mesa for a Weird Al Yankovich concert at the Pacific Amphitheater.

I was thoroughly impressed by the venue. It was quite bit big (I read 16,000) and was 90% full. That was a lot more people than I expected. With no opening act, Al's performance went on for 2 hours and 15 minutes. He did a bunch of quick costume changes while showing Al TV interviews on the big screen, including one with my favorite, Robert Plant.

His material covered a lot of his career and played most of the crowd favorites including My Bologna, Eat It, Fat, Yoda, Smells Like Nirvana, Amish Paradise, The Saga Begins, Couch Potato, White & Nerdy (With Crimson singing loudly), Canadian Idiot, Perform This Way (in huge peacock outfit), TMZ and Craigslist (loved his impression of Jim Morrison). It was a great performance and a nice end to a long day.

California Trip - Day 4 - Hollywood

We actually got to sleep in a bit because we weren't about to head out into the thick of rush hour traffic in LA.

The first stop was a tour of Warner Bros Studio. This was a two hour tram guided tour of many locations on the Warner Bros lot. Lots of neat insight provided by the guide and we saw a lot of historic sites. However, since almost all filming is on hiatus during July we didn't get to catch anyone live.

We did get to have nice look at the preserved Friends Central Perk set where I snuck this picture that I wasn't supposed to get. I was quickly told to get back behind the couch after taking it. Such a rebel.



My other highlight was seeing the Kash and Grab set from one of my favorite shows, Shameless. It didn't mean anything to anyone else on the tram, but at least I recognized it. We saw the studio for Big Bang Theory but most of it was undercover at the moment. Finally, there was a wardrobe and prop museum that was filled with 50% Harry Potter stuff.

We didn't have much time before our next event so we grab some grub out of the car and started the short walk to wait for Jay Leno. Initially I was a bit concerned about getting there in time since they intentionally overbook it. Fortunately, we were as numbers 154 & 155. We got in and got some very nice seats straight back from the monologue spot. As we had heard, it was freezing in there, but it was a great experience. Jay does a good job of welcoming and talking to the audience before the show and it was fun despite some less than interesting guests (Kathie Lee & Hoda, Sig Henson and Ashton Shepard). The highlight was probably a guest spot by William Shatner.

After taping we set out for the heart of Hollywood and the tourist traps. We saw the Walk of Fame, Chinese Theater and caught our first glimpse of the Hollywood sign the the Hollywood & Highland Mall.

We had fun at Madame Tussaud's Was Museum mingling with the wax stars. They are so lifelike it is a bit creepy. One time Crimson even mistook a live person for a wax statue. We struggled a bit to find some decent food but eventually did at the Boulevard Tavern.


We ended the busy day at our hotel in the center of West Hollywood.

California Trip - Day 3 - La Jolla and Departure North

Another big activity on tap early, so it was breakfast from the grocery store in our hotel room before departing for La Jolla Cove in Northern San Diego. Elise, Sam, Crimson and I were going to spend a couple hours on a kayaking and snorkeling tour.

The first challenge was finding a place to park. This would be a recurring theme for much of our trip. It's like the state of California always figured people would walk to the beach.

The cove was beautiful and water nice although quite cold. It was a good thing we had wet suits otherwise we couldn't have handled the 2 hours in and on top of the water. The kayaking was a good workout and the team of Crimson / Mark worked well together. The snorkeling was less impressive than most of my other attempts with zero appearances of the hyped leopard sharks. The highlight was our swim into the caves.

We built up quite a hunger and headed to the La Jolla Cheese Shop for some massive sandwiches. The food was great but the service pretty slow. They did have a nice selection of hard to find candies and drinks.

We headed back to the hotel and said our goodbyes to Mom, Elise and Sam as they were returning to Phoenix that afternoon. We were headed North because our next day was a busy one in Hollywood.

On our way North we stopped at Torrey Pines Glider port hoping to catch a glimpse of some hangliders. Although we didn't see any, the site was quite beautiful and people were having some fun with remote control gliders.



We got our first taste of traffic as we reached the Southern edge of Orange County. Our hotel stop was in San Clemente. A nice quite hotel that thrilled Crimson simply because it had more TV channels. Pizza at the local Stuft Pizza became a bit weird when one of the employees cranked the volume on the only TV to maximum level and walked away.

California Trip - Day 2 - San Diego Zoo and more


Still on Atlanta time, I awoke pretty early. Since Crimson was still asleep I decided to take a walk and some pics in Embarcadero Park behind the hotel.

Instead of opting for the outrageously expensive $23 hotel breakfast buffet, we went around the corner to Café 222, a great decision. Excellent eats at a very reasonable price. From there it was off to the San Diego Zoo and more animals.

We started out taking a bus tour of the grounds. It's a 40 minute guided tour that allows you to see a lot of the park although not that close to the animals. The wait for the bus was a bit longer than I had hoped but it was a relaxing way to see a lot.

From there it was on foot to explore the zoo. It certainly lived up to its billing as the one of the world's best. The zoo is huge and the collection impressive. Many of the habitats are quite well done. We saw a lot but still only covered about 2/3rds before most of our group was too tired to continue. My highlight of the day had to be watching 4 or 5 people jump just because a lion raised its head behind the glass.



Mom, Elise and Sam were ready to head back to the hotel but I wanted to keep sightseeing and Crimson opted to go with me. Our first stop were two old bridges in the area. First was the 375 foot long Spruce Street suspension bridge built in 1912. When we got within a couple steps of it we realized Crimson had found a limit. There was no way she was going to cross it. I ran across, snapped a few pics and we moved on to the next bridge. This one was the Quince Street wooden trestle bridge built in 1905. However, there was no crossing this bridge as a section of it had broken away. Perhaps Crimson was on to something.

Next we headed out to Point Loma for some great views back at downtown San Diego and even a glance at Mexico. Checking out Ocean Beach and its amusement park on the way back turned into a bit of a mystery that was finally solved when a quick trip to the Internet revealed the amusement park had been closed for years.

For dinner, the crew headed to Old Town and some authentic Mexican food at the Old Town Mexican Cafe. The wait was long and food only average but the company was good. Sam picked up a Mexican wrestling mask that he was determined to wear everywhere.

California Trip - Day 1 - Air Travel & San Diego

We woke up bright and early around 5:00AM for an 8:00AM flight. Things didn't get off to the best start as I somehow missed the exit to I-85 despite the fact that I've taken this route literally hundreds of times heading downtown. We recovered though to make it to the airport in time and our flights were on time as well.

A mix up at the car rental office had me renamed to "Deion" for a bit but in the end saved me a day rental of rentals fees and the cost of a tank of gas. We quickly headed out to our first destination, San Zoo Safari park.



This park is a subsidiary of the San Diego Zoo but at a different location. It's a huge open space which houses a lot of animals in wide expansive habitats. It was really neat seeing giraffes roam relatively free across the "plains". We took a guided safari tour that gave us a close look at the grounds and animals. Expensive, but worth it.

After the Safari we went back to our hotel and met up with Mom, Elise and Sam. The San Diego Marriott Marquis & Marina had beuatiful views of the city and the harbor. We ate dinner at the hotel and then drove quickly to Coronado to check out the sunset at the world famous Del Coronado Hotel and eat some ice cream.

California Trip - Prologue

Crimson and I are finally back from out two week trip to California and I figured I'd share more than a bit about the trip with all my friends and family. Before diving into the day to day details, some background.

I've been thinking about a Western coastal trip for a couple years. I was really interested in driving up the coast, seeing a lot of beautiful scenary and checking out the interesting sights in between. I knew Crimson was very interested in seeing Hollywood and would be thrilled at visiting Six Flags Magic Mountain amusement park and it world-leading 18 roller coasters.

I rarely travel without researching a LOT, undoutably too much. When I travel I like to keep busy, not sit around a hotel, by the pool or on the beach. I save that for Barbados. Crimson is pretty much the same way. So, I bought a couple of books, scoured the Internet and made extensive use of Google Maps.

I quickly realized my dream of traveling from San Diego to Seattle was not a possibility with only two weeks to work with. So, I amended the trip to simply San Diego to San Francisco with a day journey North of Frisco.

However, things weren't exactly linear for us as we'd be making detours inland to Hollywood and Six Flags. Since we wanted to see Leno and tour a studio, a weekend date in Hollywood was out of the question. Doing Six Flags on a weekday was also desirable. After struggling with this a bit, I found a rough itinerary that would work. Next up was an attempt to coordinate so that Mom, Sis and her sons could meet us in San Diego. We worked that out although Seth couldn't make the trip due to baseball.

With a rough idea in mind, I started working on specifics. Reservations for hotels in 10 different cities were made, 150 locations and way points were added to the GPS, lists of sites/activities were typed up, tickets for popular activities were purchased and about 50 maps were printed. It took me weeks to put together and organize but it was well worth every minute because it helped us maximize our time and see a LOT.

The last step was to get to the two us packed and ready for the trip. Our early departure from the house meant we'd probably be tired before we even started.

Coming up will be blog entries describing each day of the trip and including a couple photos from each day. The remaining pictures will be available shortly.

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5
Day 6
Day 7
Day 8
Day 9
Day 10
Day 11
Day 12
Epilogue

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

NHL Playoff Predictions - Stanley Cup Final

This is going to be very brief. Those of you who know me best will understand why I do not feel about talking much about the NHL at this point in time. However, I believe it is my duty to finish these picks. We'll see if a summer without hockey brings me back to discussing the NHL.

ROUND 3 RESULTS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#3 BOSTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 6 - $30
Actual : Boston in 7 - LOSE $30

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #2 SAN JOSE
Actual : VANCOUVER in 5 - WIN $30

10-4 +$420 so far

STANLEY CUP FINALS
#1 VANCOUVER vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : Vancouver in 6 - $80

Tim Thomas will steal a couple for the Bruins but the overall skill level and depth of the Canucks will prevail.

Enjoy the games, it is going to be hard for me to watch.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

The commitment to absorbing as much hockey as humanly possible continues. Fortunately for me and my neighbors, there is a little less of it as each round passes by. Round 2 may not have had the drama of round 1 but it certainly had its storylines.

A look back at round 2:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 4 - LOSE $65

I wasn't as surprised by Tampa's victory as much as I was by sweeping. Someone who bet that result could have made a killing and should probably have their head examined. The result says just as much about Tampa Bay as it does Washington.

Yzerman has built fundamentally sound Lightning team by surrounding some superstars with players who will fight hard every night for loose pucks and stay composed while under attack (a theme for this round). Their superstars are not exempt from doing the little things that contribute to winning hockey. Yzerman's move to acquire Roloson at a relatively cheap cost when he saw a chink in the armor is almost certainly going to earn him executive of the year honors. Is he going to get a Stanley Cup to go with his GM Olympic gold?

Washington has to seriously examine themselves once again. They lacked the composure (I told you it was a theme) to deal with goal and series deficits causing one goal to lead to two and eventually to a sweep. This is as much about leadership as it is about attitude. The defense first philosophy was the right idea for this team but it went way too far. A good coach needs to develop a system that still allows gifted players to create scoring opportunities. Back to the drawing board coach Bruce.

#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Actual : BOSTON in 4 - LOSE $45

Much to my surprise, Philly never found their composure in this series. They never developed any momentum and had horrible play from the defense for yet another series. Add in Boston's quick strike attack plus the stellar goaltending of Thomas and it was a disaster for the Flyers. Sure, they have their share of excuses but no matter how you look at it this is a disappointment for a team that looked so good until the All Star break. Where the go from here is a bit of a question. If Boucher comes back they might as well throw in the towel. Acquiring an experience quality backup at a low price should be the approach. Sacrificing offense to get a top-notch starter seems mighty risky. With a cheap backup they can conceivable make an adjustment at the trade deadline if that approach doesn't work. Whatever they do they cannot afford to play Bob to death so early in the process.

Boston couldn't have played much better. Their hard work paid off. However, without being seriously contested, it could hurt them in the long run. Fortunately for them, they play in the East and get to face a team who has been sitting for awhile as well.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
Actual : VANCOUVER in 6

This series played out a lot like I expected. Although Nashville was able to keep it a bit closer game to game, Vancouver's depth and Nashville's lack of scoring punch eventually took its toll. If not for the stellar play of Pekka Rinne, Nashville would have been blown out of it. Luongo held his own but rarely face serious pressure. He'll get his test next round.

Unlike the two series in the East, there is no shame in losing this one for Nashville. They finally won a series and played their hearts out against the Canucks. As always, they'll face some difficulties keeping this team together but with Trotz in the fold (please give this man the Jack Adams award) they'll be back for another chance.

#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
Actual : SAN JOSE in 7 - LOSE $5

The result of this series should explain why I went back and forth with my prediction beforehand. This was by far the most entertaining series of the first round. With 6 of the 7 games decided by one goal and the other iced with an empty net goal, it was the closest in NHL playoff history.

A roller coaster from the first puck drop, the series saw an ebb and flow like no other in recent memory. Both teams played excellent defense, had strong goaltending and had portions where they controlled the play on offense. Unlike the slowed down play I witnessed in the other 3 series when they went defense first, this one never slowed tempo. Great defense was happening at full speed. The hits were furious and the stars of both team shined at critical times.

The Red Wings composure, one of their stongest assests, built up over a 20 year period, allowed them to comeback from a 3-0 series deficit where the Caps and Flyers failed. For that, they can go away proud and leave this Wings fan far less disappointed.

In the end it came down to the Sharks penalty kill and the Wings inability to convert on the powerplay at critical times. The Sharks got some good bounces, especially early in the series and the Wings had injuries in game 7 that really hurt their chances but niether of those should take away from the Sharks excellent performance. It certainly has me rethinking their chances moving forward.

That ends what was probably my worst round of picks since I've been doing this. I went a miserable 1 for 4 and lost $35. That's 9-3 +$420 so far.

Now to round 3 that begins tonight..

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#3 BOSTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 6 - $30

These teams have been waiting around a LONG time. At least they are both in the same boat. I honestly think this plays into the Lighning's hands since Boston has more pressure to produce early since they'll be starting the series at home. If Tampa Bay can grab just one of the first two the series will be within their grasp. Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get their superstars more involved in the scoring though because it is unlikely the role players can keep the scoring pace up.

Boston will look to play this series much like the Philly one and its hard to argue against that approach. They'll play defense first while looking to get their defense involved on the offense whenever the Lightning present the chance. Taking advantage of those opportunities is key.

Thomas won't have to face the pressure he faced against Philly but he will have to stay focussed because the Lightning will shoot from everywhere. If they can score early like they did against Philly it could be over quick. Otherwise, I expect many tight games.

I cannot wager a large amount of money on this series because I simply cannot predict who the long wait will affect most. There are also signifcant injuries to both teams that may be a factor.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #2 SAN JOSE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $30

Much like the Wings - Sharks series of the previous round, I went back and forth on this one. I thought the Canucks under performed against Nashville while the Sharks are playing some of their best hockey of the season. I was thinking that this might just be enough to carry the Sharks through the Canucks.

However, I cannot get over the number of juicy rebounds that San Jose's Niemi gave up that the Wings failed to convert. More of those and Vancouver will convert. This series is going to come down to goaltending and I give Luongo the edge simply because he plays more technically sound. That doesn't mean Luongo can't be beaten. The Sharks just need to get to him early before he establishes any momentum/confidence. Their best chance may be game 1 where the Canucks will be a tad nervous playing before the pressure packed home crowd.

This should be another fast paced but defensively sound series, a true joy to watch. Pay particular attention to the faceoffs as the team that controls them will likely win the series. Both teams are attempting to overcome a hurdle they've stumbled with in the past. For all those pundits that are claiming the Sharks passed that test by beating the Wings, keep in mind that the Sharks did that last year to only get swept by Chicago instead of reaching the final. The Canucks have pressure of their own as the weight of all Canada is on their shoulders, as well as, the expectations from a season of winning.

Only a paltry $90 bet this round. We've got what should be two close series both entertaining in their own way. 3 of these 4 teams were among my serious contenders to make it this far based on my preseason predictions. These aren't flukes.

The Canucks are still on pace to win the cup. We'll see if they can hold this pace for the next two weeks.

Finally, the Swedes will prevail against the Fins in the World Championship final. No wager on this one. I couldn't find a local bookie who even knew this game was taking place Sunday.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2

No rest for the weary. Late night West coast games give way to more of the same. At least there are now less games to follow. This year I've watched even more than I did last year. I caught portions of every game and watched about 1/2 in their entirety. As I type this I'm flipping back and forth between two game sevens. I'm one sick puppy.

Before moving onto my predictions, a look back at round 1:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
Actual : WASHINGTON in 5 - WIN $85

This series played almost exactly as expected. The series could have been a little closer if only the Rangers had a bit more offense. Washington simply had too much skill for the Rangers to handle and only Lunqvist and a quality defense keep the games fairly close. This should be a good confidence builder for Washington heading forward and reinforces the Ranger's need to find another scorer and seriously chase Richards over the summer.

#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Actual : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - WIN $75

Buffalo ended up making this series much tighter than I expected. There was a lot of sloppy defense in this series by the Flyers and it almost cost them a chance at the ultimate prize. When they finally buckled down in game 7 they easily controlled the game. Miller did an admireable job of keeping a depleted team in the running but in the end he wasn't enough. Philly's goaltending was even more of an adventure than anyone expected. It wasn't pretty and if they can't find some consistency moving forward they won't stand a chance. Pronger's return could be the turning point. As I noted faceoff wins are a much underappreciated stat. Turns out two of them resulted in Flyer goals in game 7.

#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Actual : BOSTON in 7 - WIN $65

Not as big as a mismatch as I expected as Boston wasn't as sound defensively as they had been down the stretch. The opportunistic Canadiens took advantage of every miscue. Boston managed to blow another early game seven lead and almost blew yet another game seven at home. They'll have to ratchet it up on both ends of the ice to compete in round 2.

#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 7 - WIN $25

I found this to be the least entertaining game to watch. Something about the tempo, numerous miscues and lack of history between the clubs always found me turning elsewhere. Goaltending was a mixed bag, as I expected, and the Lightning's young defense was exposed at times. Either team could have ultimately won this series. I had the hardest time picking this series and it ended up being about the most even. Had the Penguins had Crosby and Malkin, I don't expect it would have been close. Expect to hear Penguin fans bitch about it on the golf courses next week.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Actual : VANCOUVER in 7 : WIN $90

It doesn't shock me that this series went to seven games, but the route it took was unexpected. Two heavily skilled teams put on a show. It was entertaining to watch without a vested interest but I suspect it would have been a nightmare I were rooting for either club. The Canucks almost single handedly put the province of British Columbia into a decade of depression. Vancouver could have dispatched of Chicago much earlier had Luongo not had his annual meltdown or the young Chicago goalie, Crawford, not played spectacular in game 7. Vancouver comes out on top in the end and some of the lessons they learned may just propel them to the Cup but they better find a way to play more consistent in goal and on defense.

#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
Actual : SAN JOSE in 6 - WIN $40

The Kings ran into some bad luck and inconsistent play that simply kept them from making the series any closer. Losing a game after having a 4-0 lead was the turning point for the series as the young Kings failed to take the next step. San Jose looked unbeatable most of the time but were shaky enough in net that they had to make multiple goalie changes. Fixing that is the key to going forward.

#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Actual : DETROIT in 4 - WIN $45

OK, I feel a little more confident in the Wings after seeing this series. They totally dismantled the Coyotes in every fashion. Surprisingly, Howard ended up being the better goalie in the series and Phoenix really had no answers for the Wings depth even without Zetterberg for the whole series and Franzen for game 4. Detroit's only flaw was their penalty killing but it came up big when needed most. As I predicted, Helm and Abdelkader were significant players. Finishing this series in 4 and avoiding the extra wear and travel should be a benefit to Detroit down the road.

#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
Actual : NASHVILLE in 6 - WIN $30

I expected this to be excellent series but a bit boring to watch. I was completely wrong. This was probably the most entertaining series on the dial due to some spectacular goalies, very physical play and back and forth action. The Predators didn't play much of their slowdown style and it looked like it might cost them for awhile. In the end, it was the Ducks troubles in net that kept them from advancing. Trotz finally got a much deserved series win for the Preds and the city of Nashville.

That's 8 for 8 on picks and $455 in winnings. No, I didn't pick a lot of upsets but the ones I did pick panned out. Also, the lowest wagers I made typically ended up being the closest series. Not too bad for an "amatuer" and much better than some of those "professional" goofs on Versus. When asked to make a prediction during last night's Boston-Montreal contest, Jeremy Roenick had the intelligence to make the bold prediction "I predict someone will win". I think he rides the short bus to the rink.

On to round 2 which begins less than 24 hours after the finish of round 1.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65

Like Vancouver in the West, I believe Washington's first round victory will serve as a catalyst to get them through this round with relative ease. Facing a much less sound defensive squad and a weaker goaltender, they should be able to tickle the twine a bit more. But, they have to careful not to fall into old habits and remember to play defense first. Patience is the key for both teams. Tampa will need Roloson to stand on his head and find a way to steal one of the two in Washington to have any chance. It should be a fun series to watch.

#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45

Both teams narrowly got here and neither played their best hockey in round 1. Philly, in particular, looked lost at times against Buffalo but I am counting on them righting the ship and finding a way to dispatch with the less skilled Boston team. It's a good matchup for the Flyers as long as their goaltending quits giving up the easy goals. Enough with the rotating goalies! Philly shouldn't have to change their gameplan much as Boston is almost identical to Buffalo except they have more skill at every position. Boston's strength is one defense and it net and they'll need every bit of it. Playing a tight disciplined game is their best way to win. As Pronger gets healthier the Flyers should spread their wings a bit. An aggressive gameplan should get them to the next round.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80

I'm of the belief that Vancouver's first round will serve as a catalyst and this series will end up being more lopsided than their first. Nashville is going to have their hands full trying to keep up with the skill level of the Nucks. The wildcard, once again, is in net. If Nashville can somehow get to Luongo early it can be an entirely different series. Nashville cannot duplicate Chicago's path. They don't have the tools to rebound from a big deficit. The Preds must get back to playing a slower tempo, defense oriented game in hopes of frustrating the Canucks. Rinne has to play like a MVP to have any chance.

#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5

I'm torn on this one and went back and forth with my prediction. That's why my confidence bet is so pathetically low. For the moment my confidence is a bit higher with Detroit. It all comes down to stealing one of the first two on the road in San Jose. Frankly, I think playing the first two on the road may work in Detroit's favor. Since they have been resting so long, using a game to find their legs isn't a problem. Their road record has been spectacular and they tend to play more relaxed away from the Joe. While San Jose may have the advantage up front, Detroit has the better defense. The diffence could be in goal and Howard has played better than San Jose's duo. Much will be made about last year's series but that was much closer than the 4-0 sweep indicated with each contest essentially a one goal game. I expect to see one or two overtime games. I just hope they don't come in one of those 10:30PM EDT starts. This round the Wings will need all their weapons so keeping Zetterberg and Franzen on the ice is key. Both teams need to stay out of the penalty box.

That's a total of $195 bet.

Since my previous Cup finals participants are still alive, I won't be changing anything. But I better see improvement this round or my Eastern Conference pick (Flyers) will change one way (forced by elimination) or another (loss of confidence).

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1

There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.

As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.

Without further ado.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85

I've seen more than a few people picking this series as an upset. I just don't envision that happening. After a year of stewing from the major upset at the hands of the Canadiens, the Capitals have got to be determined not to let that happen again. They spent the better part of the season with working on more defensive philosophy. While this resulted in less goals for Ovie and bunch, they finally found a way to win without scoring 4 goals a game. This is precisely what it takes to win in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the Rangers are forced to play this style because they have so little offense. Their team is built around hard work and strong goaltending. But now that Callahan is out, they simply don't have the offense it'll take to win. Lunqvist may steal a game or two but I just don't see the Rangers coming out on top.

The only way the Rangers win is to attack the young Cap goalies. Get a lot of traffic in front and throw a lot of pucks at the net. Hope the playoff jitters get to the goalie(s). Get an early lead and make the Caps start doubting themselves. Knock the Caps out this time and they may never recover.

#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75

Despite that late season swoon, I still think the Flyers have the perfect makeup for another long playoff run. I was one of the few people who said it last year and I think they are now an even stronger team. But it isn't going to be easy and Buffalo won't go down without a fight.

I think we'll finally see the real Flyers step back up and take control of this series with offense. Buffalo can score goals in spurts but I don't think they can match the Flyers at both ends of the ice or contain their powerplay. Buffalo's best chance is in goal. Miller can be a differance maker that Philly wishes it had. On the surface the Flyers goaltending trio looks better than the tandem they had last year but their starter is not playoff tested. Only time will tell.

#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65

Of all the series, this is the one I think is the most lopsided. Boston is better built to be successful in the playoffs while Montreal had just enough tools to get there. I wouldn't read too much into Montreal early season success against Boston or their success in the playoffs last year.

Boston will beat Montreal with their physical game. They'll wear down the smaller faster Canadiens, get plenty of "garbage" goals and use strong goaltending to keep Montreal in check.

The first game in Montreal is worth a looksee as Chara returns to the scene of the crime. The fans will be rabid beyond their normal craziness. Montreal's best chance is having Price become superhuman and hoping Boston gets undisciplined.

#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25

I want to pick at least one upset in the East so I'll pick this one. While the Penguins have surprised me with their play without their 2 best players, I think the tank finally runs dry before Crosby has a chance to lace them up.

I'm concerned with lack experience among some of the Tampa players and coaches but there are just enough veterans around to make up for it. We could see some high scoring affairs in the these games if Tampa Bay gets to play their way. It'll be up to the Penguins to slow the game down and frustrate the Lightning.

Goaltending is the enigma in this series. Each team has a tender who can dominate but they are both highly inconsistent. The team that finds consistency in net will probably come out on top.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90

Surely the Canucks would have liked a different opponent in round one. To see the team that knocked them out of contention the last two years is a little disturbing. But I have a feeling this just might be the catalyst that propels them to a Cup win.

This isn't last year's Hawks. Gone is a lot of depth and grit that made this team a playoff success. While there is still plenty of offensive punch, solid defense and decent goaltending, they are going to have trouble matching up with Vancouver's deep squad over the course of a long series.

The key in this series in Luongo. He's been notorious for playoff flops in the past and he desperately needs to win this series to exorcise those demons. Expectations are a mile high in Vancouver and most of the pressure falls on Luongo. Perhaps winning the gold put those troubles behind him but if the Hawks somehow take a series lead, doubts will creep up.

Vancouver is 1st or 2nd in just about every offensive and defensive category. The one I find most amazing is their record when scoring first. I can't find the exact number but it was something close to 46-2. Think about that for a minute.

#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40

This was a tough series for me to predict. One side of me wants to think the Sharks will easily dispatch the Kings because of the loss of Kopitar/Williams, two significant offensive pieces. However, the Kings have been resiliant in their absence and I think they'll rise to the occassion again. However, I think this particular task is just too much to handle without being closer to 100%.

The Sharks should have got the monkey off their back a bit by getting to the conference finals last year. But it's time to start again and find a way to take those last steps towards a championship. It's the only thing that'll be considered a success. A loss at home or a failure to get their offense going will make them nervous.

The Kings best chance is to keep the games close and hope their goalie can stand on his head. This should be a fun series to watch if you can tolerate nights with little sleep.

#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Never have I felt less confident about a Detroit team heading into the playoffs. Add Zetterberg's knee tweak to that and I'm almost tempted to pick Phoenix to win the series. It's the consistency that has been most maddening.

Somehow, someway, they always seem to rise to the occassion when it matters the most so I am expecting to see less mistakes out of the Wings now that the playoffs have started. There are still some nagging issues including a lack of secondary scoring, a weak 3rd defensive pair and a scary situation in net.

Whoever scores the early goals will likely control the series. Low scoring contests play into the Coyotes hands. Excellent coaches on both benches. The Wings have to find a way to be aggressive from the get go and force the Coyotes to take some penalties because the powerplay of Detroit vs the penalty kill of Phoenix is a huge mismatch in Detroit's favor. It's here I think they'll take the series.

Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best hope. The Wings have fallen to a shutdown goalie too many times to list and Bryz is among the best.

Detroit has been less than stellar at home since the beginning of the year and terrific on the road. They'll need to do better at home to advance.

Key players to watch for Detroit are Abdelkader and Helm. They've been here before and played important, limited roles. They've both expanded their responsibilities this season and should be key factors in how the series unfolds. Both play an aggressive, speedy style and have just begun to find their scoring touch.

#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30

My "upset" for the West. The Ducks have played tremendously for the last two months and everyone seems to be focussed on that. Meanwhile, Nashville has played almost as well. I know the Predators have never won a single playoff series but I think now is the time.

This bound to be physical series. The Ducks like to play an agressive style and the Preds are a very disciplined, defense first team. With quality goaltending on both sides I expect a lot of low scoring affairs and probably some OT contests.

The Ducks will be relying a lot on their top line to get it done but the Preds counter with two defensemen as good as any pair in the game. Making sure he gets that pair on the ice when Getzlaf, Perry and company are out there will be job #1 for coach Trotz. Fortunately, that is something he can handle.

I think this series comes down to adjustments and Trotz is great at keeping a series close. Keep Rinne playing like he has all season in net and the Ducks can return to their pond early.

A big factor in this series could be the health of the Ducks goalies. They've got three in tow but all have one form of an ailment. They are all decent but it isn't a position you want to worry about heading into what should be a very close series.

That's $455 wagered on this round.

Before the season started I picked Vancouver over Pittsburgh in the finals. I'll stick by the Canucks but I've got to count the Penguins out due to the loss of Crosby and Malkin. Vancouver has been the most consistent team from beginning to end and they have all the pieces to do it this year.

Picking the East winner is a huge challenge. None of them have played consistently and all of them have weaknesses that could easily see them knocked out in the first round. While I'd like to pick Boston, I'm not sure a second round matchup with Philly is in their favor. I'd lean towards Washington but have sneaking feeling they may resort to old form if they fall behind. That leaves Philly. If they can just get beyond round 1 and get a healthy Pronger back, things may align for them once again.

However, Philly's luck will run out in the final again, unless they are fortunate enough to meet a team other than the Canucks.

So, that's Vancouver over Philly in the final. Pick any Sedin as your Conn Smyth winner. I can't tell them apart.

NHL Playoff Predictions - A Prequel

It's that time of the year again. No more sleep filled nights. No more spring weekends outside. Instead I get to endure West coast games starting at 10:30PM almost every weeknight and being holed up in my basement watching afternoon tilts on the weekends. But I do this by choice because there isn't much better than NHL playoff hockey. I would have preferred watching it firsthand, right here in Atlanta, but once again that hope is left for "next season".

Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared. It seems like ages ago and only yesterday at the same time. My predictions were very accurate picking 13 of 16 playoff teams and 5 of 6 division winners. Most of my observations were accurate as well. About the only mistakes I made were with Anaheim, the New York Rangers and Ottawa. Cory Perry pushed the Ducks into the mix, rapid development of some young Rangers put them a year ahead of schedule and Ottawa sell-off sent them crashing downward.

Honestly, it wasn't tough to predict that there would be a dogfight for the bottom playoff seedings. To me the biggest surprise of the season had to be how much the Blackhawks struggled. I knew they'd take a step back but I never envisioned them struggling to make the playoffs. Considering the key injuries the Penguins faced, I was shocked they were battling for the division until the final weekend.

An 82 game season usually results in the best teams making the playoffs and it's pretty hard to argue that any quality teams were left out. In the end, Dallas and Atlanta just weren't as good as they started, Toronto wasn't ready, Washington was a stronger team than Tampa and Vancouver was the class of the league. But that is the regular season. The playoffs are a different story. Look no further than the Flyers, Caps and Canadien teams of last year to see how different the two seasons can be. Players must raise their play to the next level and each mistake is magnified. Extended scoring slumps or simply injuries can mean the difference between playing on the ice or on the golf course when the calender turns to May.

My preseason prediction for the eventual cup winner, Vancouver, doesn't look too bad either. They appear to have all the key pieces in place to grab the coveted prize. But sometimes, those lofty expectations give way to simple bad luck. In an attempt to avoid repetition in my upcoming predictions, here are some of the keys I think ANY successful playoff team must have to win the big prize:

  1. Faceoffs - The most underrated statistic in all of professional hockey. It sets the tone for the offense and allows the defense to get our of their own zone. A team that can dominate in the circles can set the pace of a game. Vancouver, San Jose and Detroit are leaders in this facet with New York and Pittsburgh among the worst.

  2. Discipline - There is a difference between a good penalty and a bad penalty and the bad ones always seem to be magnified in the playoffs. Detroit, Chicago and Phoenix are among the least penalized while Pittsburgh and Anaheim were among the most penalized.

  3. Goaltending - Goaltending can steal a series all alone and there are plenty of candidates capable of doing this. The teams that don't have one of these goaltenders need to be especially worried. That means Washington, Detroit, Philly have to find ways to score because they won't feel comfortable with one goal leads. Can outstanding goaltending in the regular season in Nashville carry over to the playoffs?

  4. Grinders - Playoffs are rarely the time where superstars dictate the results. While they may be the big point producers, it is the contributions of the 3rd & 4th line players that elevate the entire team. If a team has a weekness on the 3rd or 4th line, it'll be exposed.

  5. Penalty Killing - Mistakes will happen but the best teams can handle the pressure. This is no place for rookies, prima donas, or chance takers. The little things like chipping the puck out and making sure you get it deep for a line change are huge. Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver had the best penalty killing units in the regular season. Both Phoenix and San Jose had miserable units.

  6. Coaching - Adjustments need to be made from game to game and from period to period. A coach has to know when to yank a goalie and how to rally the troops. The Penguin's Bylsma did a fantastic job in the regular season but these playoffs are chock full of pedigreed coaches. It's the inexperienced one in Tampa that faces the biggest challenge.

  7. Experience - This comes into play in every game but where it tends to count the most is when the team faces some adversity. Experience keeps a team/player focussed. It allows them to put a bad goal or a bad shift behind him. San Jose, Philly, Chicago and Montreal gained valuable experience last year. Detroit and Pittsburgh have it in bunches. At the opposite end of the spectrum New York, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Phoenix don't have a hell of lot. Washington and Boston may actually be fighting against their previous experience.

  8. Injuries - No one can predict which team will be affected and few teams are completely healthy at this point. Especially troubling has to be the unknown status of Crosby in Pittsburgh, Zetterberg's "lower body injury" in Detroit, Pronger in Philly, Kopitar/Williams in L.A., Callahan in N.Y. and the banged up defense in Vancouver. How quickly the players return, plus how the teams responds in the absence, will go a long way to determining the eventual champion.

I'm sure I could come up with more but that's enough to chew on. Now it's time to get cracking on the next blog post containing the actual predictions.

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Thrashers Game Report - 10/08/10

Atlanta 4 - Washington 2

If any game was worthy of a first-hand observation report, this one was.

It was great to be back at Philip's Arena for the first non-exhibition hockey since mid-April. I was excited to witness a real game from my new roost. As expected, for an opening game against on of the better teams in hockey, the crowd was fairly large. However, even with a couple thousand seats now unavailable behind curtains, it appeared to be a little less than a sellout. I can't really blame those for not coming. I just hope the team can convince a few of those who are on the fence to come on down.

Good electricity from the extended introductions and good play by the Thrashers early quickly turned solemn and silent. Atlanta goalie, Andre Pavelec, collapse in front of his crease just before a faceoff was to occur at the other end. Team doctors and medical staff quickly got to him but he lay motionless for the better part of 15 minutes while doctors examined him. I couldn't help but think of the scene just a few seasons ago when the Red Wing's Jiri Fischer had to have his heart restarted on the ice. The good news was I noticed they were not performing CPR or trying to ventilate him. However, he never moved. After getting him strapped on a board he was wheeled off the ice on a stretcher. Plenty of well-wishing cheers but still no movement.

As fans we were left wondering what had happened. Nobody in our section had actually seen him fall because the action was at the other end. Thankfully, through the links of cell phones, text messages and the internet we got some more information. Pavelec had collapsed and was indeed unconscious when he left the building. He did regain consciousness at the hospital and appeared to be ok. As of this writing, he is still in the hospital with a concussion (likely from the fall) and is under observation.

I thought there might be discussion of postponing the game (they did so in the Wing's contest) but likelihood of that seem remote since it was opening night. Action started up again after 20 minutes. Players and coaches had brief meetings and Mason went in to replace Pavelec in net.

I almost expected this tragedy to take something away from the Thrashers and for the next couple of minutes they were a bit out of sorts. They committed one of their only mistakes of the night allowing the Capitals to put a pretty tic-tac-toe shot past Mason, the first shot he faced.

However, it wasn't long until the Thrashers were back to dominating the Capitals once again. They had a forecheck and offensive cycling like I've rarely seen in Atlanta (at least for the home team). On the defensive end they were in great position and getting the puck up the ice quick. Forwards and d-men were doing a great job of keeping the puck in the Caps zone. Finally, they were rewarded for their hard work when Kane scored the first goal of the season! This fan and many others finally could stand up and cheer again.

But the Thrashers didn't stop there. The almost got another one on some good net front presence but it was waved no goal as the refs lost sight of the puck. Ladd scored one on a nice deflection from the point. More pressure in front caused a Cap to attempt to cover the puck inside the crease which a ref actually caught! A penalty shot was awarded. Kane converted the shot and if he hadn't already turned the 14,000 people into fans with his Cooke KO or his first goal, this one surely did. 3-1!

The third period started with the Thrashers still controlling play but a defensemen got caught up ice. A quick turnover led to a fairly easy 2 on 1 goal for the Caps. Having scene this scenario far too often over the years and knowing the talent of the Caps, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach with only a one goal lead. Fortunately, the Thrashers continued to play extremely well and there weren't many good Capital shots. A icing situation forced by the Thrashers forecheck resulted in a quick goal off a faceoff by Modin. The Thrashers played great defense down the stretch including the last 1:20 when the Caps pulled their goalie.

It was an amazing performance under some extreme circumstances. They way the team responded showed quite a bit about the players on the roster and the coaches behind the bench. While it must have been hard for Mason to come into that situation, he handled it fairly well. None of the goals could be blamed on him. I think he can play better in terms of rebound control but he came up big when needed to. He had once save on Ovechkin that had Alex shaking his head in disbelief.

Normally, I'd agree with the media and pick Kane as the star of the game but in this contest it has to go to the medical staff, specialists and EMTs. I cannot believe how quick they responded to the situation.

Kane was a monster all night long. Not only the strongest puck handler, but he also delivered the biggest hits. At the beginning of the game I was thinking I should revise my prediction of 30G/70PTs down a bit (25/65). Maybe now I should RAISE them.

The former Blackhawks also played a big role. Not only did Ladd get on the board but Byfuglien was probably their best defenseman. Sopel was good at blocking shots (the team blocked a ton) and all made their physical presence know.

I was a bit shocked to see the rookie, Burmistov, playing on the penalty kill in his first NHL game. That's almost unheard of. Frankly, he did a very good job. He was also a force on the offensive end. He gets a bit over matched by size from time to time but has some speed, nice hands and some nifty moves.

They outplayed the Caps by a large margin, got more shots, more hits, more shot blocks and won more faceoffs. Those are categories the Thrashers rarely win, especially against teams like the Caps.

I don't want to get too excited because the Thrashers have looked good for a game or two before. However, I saw all the elements that were advertised to us, by the coaches, all offseason. A more physical, fore-checking team with an active yet responsible defense. Solid goaltending and good number of guys with good puck skills. This was no cupcake they beat. The Capitals wanted to come out strong after their lackluster playoff showing. It's a long season ahead but the first step was a mighty nice one.