Cooper Creek Hike

This hike was distinctly different than recent ones. I was looking for a less travelled trail and that is exactly what I got. Although well marked and easy to follow, it was pretty obvious that few hikers come to this trail, especially the rear section. Most of the trail was single track with plenty of overgrowth. Since I never saw another person during my entire 2 1/2 hours of hiking, it made for great setting. Although there were no vistas or waterfalls to see, the terrain itself was fairly interesting.

Having heard/read the warnings of black bears, I took them fairly seriously. The last thing I wanted was to have confrontation with one of these huge animals. I made sure to be fairly vocal and keep my eyes and ears open. However, that didn't stop me from being surprised by two hogs. These aren't your friendly domestic pigs. Pretty damn scary actually. They were quite big and moving fast. By the time I was able to spot them, they were already 200 feet away. Wish I could have got a picture but they weren't sticking around for a photo op.

The trail itself had enough uphill sections to be a nice workout. It breaks from the deep woods for a small section that follows a forest road. He's a shot along that road.

Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

Finally, after near 100 games each between the regular season and the playoffs, we are down to two teams chasing the greatest trophy in sports. What happened in the regular season is barely a memory and even the first round on the playoff feels like ages ago.

The final two participants is no surprise to me. Back a the beginning of the playoffs, I predicted a Wings vs Penguins matchup in the final. In fact, I picked the Wings since the beginning of the season. Both teams had their share of ups and downs. The Penguins got off to a slow start and suffered and injury to their leader, Crosby and their goalie Fluery. But Malkin and Conklin step up big time and helped the Penguins get to the playoffs. The Wings suffered through a 10 game losing stretch when 4 of their defensemen were out but ended the season recapturing the winning ways so frequent in the first half.

Both teams steamrolled playoff opponents. Although both suffered minor setbacks, they never trailed in any series. They typically out shot and outworked opponents and had big contributions from secondary players. Both teams look to be worthy contenders for the big prize.

As a Red Wings fan, the matchup with Pittsburgh scares me more than any matchup so far. Pittsburgh's got a ton of offensive firepower and they are playing strong team defense in front a young confident goalie. From my perspective, the series could go either way. The one thing I really don't expect is a short series. A sweep could happen by either side but I'd put the chance of that at less than 5%.

I'm not going to let me fear keep me from predicting what I've been predicting since the beginning of the season.

Detroit #1 vs Pittsburgh #2
PREDICTION : Detroit in 7
Confidence : 55%

How'd I come up with that prediction? Let me break it down a bit.

Forwards - Edge Pittsburgh - With Crosby, Malkin and Hossa have a powerful trio. A good combination of playmakers, strength with the puck and pure finishers. They can dazzle with skill or scrap it down low. On top of that Pittsbugh has more than its share of secondary scoring from guys like Malone, Staal and Roberts. Detroit throws has two super forwards to counter with in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Although not the marketing magnets that Crosby is, both are just as skilled or more so. In fact, both of these players are also excellent defenders, a level above the likes of Crosby and Malkin. The Wings have decent secondary scoring but their prime-time chip, The Mule (Franzen) will be out for at least one contest with concussion like symptons.

Defense - Edge Detroit - Detroits top four are probably the best in the league. They carry the puck and start the offense better than any on the Pittsburgh roster. Add to the highly recognizable Lidstrom/Rafalski a healthy Kronwall bringing the big hits and chipping in points and the trade deadline acquisition Stuart. These four are better than anything the Pens can put out there. Although Gonchar can look impressive at times, I seriously doubt he'd crack the top 4 in Detroit. Detroit other forwards are also play great defense, something the Pens may have difficulty matching.

Goalie - Even - Two goaltenders at opposite ends of their respective careers but playing similar games. Both are cool, calm and collected and aren't easily frazzled. Osgood relieved Hasek and the team never looked back. While he doesn't face as many shots as Fluery, he makes the big save when called upon. Osgood has more experience playing at this level having won a cup before in 1998 and Fluery has been extraordinary this post-season. Both have sound technical skills and play the puck with confidence. Should either falter, adequate backups are available.

Power Play - Edge Pittsburgh - Getting all three of those super forwards on the ice at one time makes for a pretty scary power play and thus a notch better than the Wings. But the Wings have more scoring prowess from the blue line so they aren't far behind. Detroit has two of the best front of the net players in Holmstrom and hopefully Franzen. If Fluery and the Pens can't deal with them, this edge will push back Detroits way.

Penalty Kill - Edge Detroit - When you have great defense and nearly ALL your forwards are good defenders, you'll have an excellent penalty kill. While Crosby and Malkin are taken off the ice when their team is down a man, Zetterberg and Datsyuk stay out there. Not only does that limit opponents opportunities but it creates scoring opportunities for Detroit. Short-handed goals are a real threat in Detroit. Although Pittsburgh has many of the same qualities in ex-Thrashers Hossa and Dupois, those qualities don't run as deep as they do in Detroit.

Coaching - Edge Detroit - I'll say it. Babcock is the best coach in a league full of many good coaches. When critics around the league predicted a fall by the Wings, Babcock retooled the roster to be more physical, hard-working and defensive minded. He preached defense as a way to create offense and did it without stifling the skills of Zetterberg or Datsyuk. He dealt with Osgood replacing Hasek in the perfect way and integrated Stuart into a lineup with hardly skipping a beat. He isn't afraid to juggle lines or to roll all four to wear down opponents. He's been to this level before and knows what it takes to win.

Intangibles - Edge Pittsburgh - The pressure is on Detroit a bit more because they start at home and are expected to win the cup. All Pittsbugh needs to do is win one in Detroit to create some nice momentum. Although many of the penalties are deserved, there are times when it looks like the league is out to protect Crosby and his marketing image above all else. The refs haven't exactly been friendly to the Wings duo that works so hard in front of the net.

That's it I can't think of any more to add. Now get out your cell phone, call Guido and put down 5 clams on the Wings. Just do it knowing, I'll erase all traces of this post if things go bad.

Duke Creek Falls Hike

After walking the Raven Cliff Falls Hike, I still had plenty of energy so I decided to hit another hiking spot less than 2 miles away. This hike was shorter but a bit more challenging than the last simply because the grade was steeper. The trail itself was very wide, level and well maintained. In fact, there were steps with rails along the first 1/3 of the route.

The trail did a series of long switchbacks leading down a mile to the base of spectacular falls which dropped 250 feet. It was a view well worth the hike. After doing this hike at a fairly quick pace, I was definitely worn out for the day upon my return to the top. The hike took about 45 minutes total including a couple quick pictures.

Raven Cliff Falls Hike

Off for another hike in the North Georgia mountains. After a bit of debate I decided to do a 2 1/2 hour hike on this day because I wanted to do this location when there were less people around. I had the Friday off of work before the Memorial Day weekend so I hit the road around 9:30.

The Raven Cliff Falls hike follows a creek throughout its journey and feature many flat areas that make for excellent camping sites just off the beaten path. The stream features numerous small falls, a couple of medium falls and one really nice falls has created a huge chasm in the surrounding rocks.

This particular hike was described as "moderate" but I found it to be rather easy. The only tricky part was the last 60 feet that required some careful steps to ascend to the best view of the great falls.

Georgia Aquarium

Took another trip to the Georgia Aquarium. It was my third trip since it opened and although nothing has changed, it was still enjoyable. It's a great place to take out of town visitors and/or kids.

The featured fish is the large whale shark.

Here's Mom and Crimson seated outside the aquarium with a small piece of Atlanta's skyline in the background.

More Wallpaper Fun

With the master bathroom now behind me, it was time to start in on Crimson's bathroom. She's a little tired of the fish wallpaper and frankly it doesn't match her bubblegum pink walls. So down with the wallpaper and up with the paint.

Much like the master bathroom, Crimson's bathroom had two layers of wallpaper to remove. In fact, there was a third layer used as border. Here's a look at the before pictures.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3 Review

We know bid ado to the Stars and Flyers as they head to the golf course and make way for what should be a very entertaining Stanley Cup final. First, a review of the last rounds' predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. " - This and many of my other statements were spot on. Philly never managed to establish much momentum in the series and was beat by a stronger team.

Bad observation : "The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe." - Except for game 5 Philly's offense didn't find much flow and never put much pressure on the Pittsburgh defense that was strong and stready. I probably should have predicted a shorted series but I thought Pittsburgh's defense would face a bit more of challenge.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation: "I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. " - I think we saw all this play out in the series. Detroit simply had too much talent for Dallas to matchup against consistently night after night. Zetterberg and Datsyuk killed the Stars and Detroits penalty killing prowess erased any Dallas advantage.

Bad observation : Any observation about the "Mule" while perhaps accurate was pretty much moot as the Mule didn't play at all in the series.

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Winners in both series. Exact number of games in the Detroit series

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 80 + 80
Return : 160 + 160
Profit : 160
Rate of return : 160/160 = 100%

Playoffs
Bet : 960
Return : 1330
Profit : 350
Rate of return : 36.5%

Maybe I should quit my day job and become a full-time hockey gambler. Are there any summer leagues or Southern hemisphere leagues I can track after the finals?

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

Here we are only a day a way from the conference finals. Two somewhat surprising teams await two very skilled teams in what should be some very interesting matchups. Much of the spotlight will be on the teams from Detroit and Pittsburgh and rightfully so. However, Philadelphia and Dallas shouldn't be overlooked as the both played very good hockey to get to this point.

Without further ado, I now present my predictions. Feel free to quote these fine points on your way to your bookie. Just don't expect me to back you up when you lose your home based on the information contained within.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%

Let's face it, few expected Philadelphia to make it this far. Even though I might have predicted it, I never expected the relative ease with which Philly accomplished it. Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. First and foremost, the defense must tighten up. They cannot afford to continue to allow the opposition to get so many shots on goal. Goaltending will be tested and anything short of a superb performance by Biron will mean a quick end to the Flyers' season. The team must play even more disciplined against at team that has more skill, finesse and strength than the Habs or the Caps and does a much better job of uping the physical play when necessary. Stupid penalties would be the quickest way for the Flyers to dig a hole. Starting on the road could be a huge benefit as I don't think the Igloo is such a tough place to steal a win. All the pressure is on Pittsburgh and that pressure will only mount should they head to Philly with a loss. The power play must continue to prosper against a Penguins' defense that has been much sounder than anticipated. Secondary scoring must continue.

While the Flyers need to play better to win, Pittsburgh must only maintain their high level to reach the finals. I think there is reason to believe many Penguins, especially Crosby, can be even more effective in this series. The Flyers have some difficulty matching up with the multiple skill lines the Penguins can roll. They'll be forced to pick their poison as it is pretty hard to contain both the Malkin and Crosby lines. The Penguins power play can be a difference in the series as I have a feeling the Flyers will give them one too many opportunities. The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe. Fluery must show he can face the extra challenge and prove he's the one to carry the team forward for years to come.

As with most series, it'll all come down to taking advantage of the other teams mistakes. I simply believe the Penguins have a few more tools to both cause those mistakes and finish the job. Expect the Flyers to come out strong and try to knock the Penguins off their finesse game. How the Penguins respond early could dictate the tempo of the series. The series has the potential to be very exciting with a nice little intra-divisional and intra-state hatred sprinkled in. It's a shame Gagne isn't healthy or the teams would be evenly matched. Regardless of the outcome, the Flyers season is certainly a success to have gotten this far. Of course, one step closer would be even sweeter. Perhaps next year Flyer fans.

WESTERN CONFRENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%

Both these teams are playing at a very high level and the series will probably be decided by the team that can continue to play that way. But both teams have been playing well all season and are anchored by veterans and strong coaches who won't allow a dropoff.

Detroit has found another offensive juggernaut and you can now bow down to "The Mule". Yet another Swede to add to arsenal, Franzen hasn't just been on a tear since the beginning of the playoffs. It all started back at the beginning of March and has resulted in 29 goals over his last 26 games. To get some perspective, Franzen has broken two long standing Wings records held by the great Gordie Howe. First Franzen had 9 game winning goals in March. Then, the Mule had 9 goals in the playoff series against the Avs and that was in only 4 games. His 9 goals were as many as the entire Avs team and included 2 hat tricks. Now the Mule reaps the benefit of playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zettterberg from time to time but he is also becoming a natural a getting the puck in the net. His 9 goals came from a variety of locations on the ice and using a lot of nice stickwork.

Of course, the Wings production doesn't stop there. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are having a great playoffs and are showing the hockey nation why they are both Selke finalists. With finalists in the Lady Byng (Datsyuk), Norris (Lidstrom) and Adams (Babcock) plus the Jennings (Osgood/Hasek) and President's trophy already in the bad, the Wings could be looking at a lot of hardware in the coming weeks. However, every nominee will tell you it all means nothing unless they bring home the Stanley Cup. For that task they'll need to continue to get production out of players like Draper, Hudler, Cleary, Kronwall and Filpulla. This round will be an even tougher task for Osgood as he likely face more scoring chances. The Wings will do their best to dictate tempo and play to their strengths with puck possession and creative playmaking.

Dallas is no slouch. The fact that they dispatched Anaheim and San Jose speaks for itself. Doing it with such precision and determination makes them a formidable opponent. They don't have a glaring weakness on the roster and they play as unit better than any team in the league. They don't make many mistakes and they've been great at capitalizing when the opponent breaks down. Morrow has shown an uncanny knack for the timely goal and Turco has left his doubters behind. Their special teams are among the best and they work as hard as any team. But is it enough?

I lean towards Detroit not just because of my heart but because I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. About the only area that might be a push is goaltending. However, I think Osgood is playing better than he has his entire career. Turco has yet to get over the hump that is the Detroit Red Wings having a miserable record against them and never had a win in Detroit!

Dallas does have a shot though but it depends on getting a win in Detroit in game 1 or 2. Turco has to stand on his head and Dallas has to take advantage when Detroit's 5th & 6th defenseman are on the ice. Dallas has to hope like hell that the Mule can be cooled off and Dallas certainly can't afford even a single injury. Be patient as hell and wait for their opportunity. Don't get forced into playing Detroit's game. Play for OT and hope for the timely goal.

This series will be a battle for both teams. More of a chess match than the Eastern Conference with undoubtedly better defense and likely a lot of tight games. I don't see Dallas backing down easy, just coming up short.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2 Review

Another round is complete. Really an odd round in that 3 of the 4 matchups saw one team race out to a 3-0 lead. I thought maybe one of the teams would overcome the 3-0 deficit but that scenario came to a screeching halt after a 4 OT marathon in Dallas. There was one dominating sweep, a couple of upsets but no major drama.Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
RESULT - Philadelphia in 5

Good observation : "I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct." - Usually trusting my gut over my brain gets me into big trouble. Not this time.

Bad observation : "I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners." - Montreal never captured any significant momentum in the series and Philly just kept responding when called upon.

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
Result - Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on." - Malkin scores 2 big goals in game 3 which essentially ices the series and Hossa gets 2 goals including the series clincher in OT in game 5. Lundqvist did well but not well enough to offense Pittsburgh's talent. With the exception of the following, just about about all my observations on this series were pretty good.

Bad observation : "I think this series has got the makings of a classic". - The Rangers blew a chance for this series to be a classic when the blew a 3-0 lead in game 1.

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Detroit in 4

Good observation(s)

1. "If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick." - Samuelsson scores 2 in game 4 and the Wings sweep.
2. "Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast." - Can I have some jam with my toast?
3. "Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he is certain to face much more pressure." - He didn't play better and look what happened. Has a starting goalie ever been pulled 3 times in a 4 game series?

Bad observation: "Detroit in 6" - I should have had more confidence in what was truly a mismatch. Colorado had been playing over their heads for weeks. Once they faced some real competition they wilted.

SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Dallas in 5

Good observation: "San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars" - San Jose played inconsistent and dug themselves a hole which they couldn't overcome against a solid team.

Bad observation: "San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle" - Dallas can match up with anybody. Time and time again hardworking consistent play has beaten out top-talent in Stanley Cup playoff history.

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Winners in 3 of 4. Only the San Jose - Dallas contest played out much differently than I expected. But that series was pretty evenly matched and probably could have gone the other way had Dallas not captured the first two games in the Shark Tank.

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55 + 75 + 80 + 80 = 290
Return : 110 + 150 + 80 + 0 = 340
Profit : 50
Rate of return : 50 /290 = 17.2%

Playoffs
Bet : 820
Return : 1010
Profit : 190
Rate of return : 23.2%

Time to find a bookie. Screw the 401-K and 529. I'm putting everything on Thrashers to win the cup next year.

De Soto Falls Hike

Time for my next hike, this one in the De Soto Falls recreation area in North Georgia. I picked out a short hike for this trip as I had a busy schedule this particular Sunday. Part of the adventure is this particular trip was just getting there.

When I got within a few miles of my final destination, I encountered a roadblock. Someone had been seriously injured/killed on the road ahead and cops were redirecting traffic. The problem was I didn't know an alternate route to my destination. My iPhone came to the rescue. With the aid of the iPhone and Google maps I was able to find a way around the closed section of road.

I found my first turn with little problem and managed to find the next as well but then things got a bit tricky. At a fork in the road I continued straight since this best matched the map. Unfortunately, the road quickly narrowed into a single lane dirt road with plenty rough patches. I stuck it out for a bit being careful to navigate the rough spots in my low clearance car. I couldn't help but think that I wasn't too many miles from where Deliverance was filmed.

I started to think I was on a long driveway and not on a road. Since I noticed someone behind me, I pulled over a bit at an opening and they assured me I was on the right route. Another 1/2 mile of rough road and I was back on the main highway.

The hike was pretty easy, very "kid-friendly" next to a decent campground. The nice falls at the end of the hikes make for a great reward. The hike splits into two separate paths. One trail leads to the middle falls and one to the lower falls. Both paths follow a nice stream and are well maintained with even a couple benches thrown in for resting. The hike to the upper falls was the easier of the two and only 3/4 mile in length. The hike to the lower falls is less than 1/2 mile but a little steeper. I did the whole thing in just about an hour including the stops at both ends.

Here's a view of the middle falls:

Here's a view of the lower falls:

Crimson's Sports Banquet

Last Monday was the annual sports banquet held at Crimson's school. For each sport, pins are awarded for participation and awards are presented to the Most Valuable Player, Most Improved and Best Sportmanship.

Crimson participated in 4 sports (Volleyball, Basektball, Soccer and Cheerleading) and won the Best Sportsmanship award in 3 of the 4. She took home a boatload of hardware: