Monday, September 7, 2009

NFL Predictions

Here we go again. Another NFL season is getting ready to start up. I'm not a big fan of how the NFL has marketed itself into a year-long product. I don't like how non-sport related industries have attached themselves to the NFL. So while the NFL kicks off a season with a big music-filled celebration on Thursday, I'll likely wait until the real action kicks off over the weekend to indulge myself.

I no longer watch pregame. I no longer watch postgame. I don't pay attention during halftime or commercial breaks. I don't care for sideline reporters, talking heads or fantasy football updates. I don't need some announcer going on and on about how good the brat he just swallowed tastes or how FOX's new hour long drama is "best new show of the season". I don't want see/hear the latest reality star's take on Brett Favre's latest retirement speech. I don't want to see Ocho Cinco's most recent endzone "dance". It's all just too much nonsense for me.

All I want to see is the actual gameplay. The Xs and Os facinate me. The chess match played out with 300lb lineman and lightning fast DBs. Shifty running, lofty passes and good tackling I'll pay to watch. I'd rather watch a punter work his craft than see some of this flair they try to shovel feed me each week.

So it is with this cynicism that I produce yet another round of predictions for the NFL season. Not a heck of a lot of research went into this picks. Mostly just a gut feeling. We'll see if come next year if I still have enough interest to post picks again.

AFC WEST
1. San Diego - money in the back. A piss poor division will make a breeze. Without or without Merriman they'll win by at least 3 games and could have it wrapped up by early November.

2. Denver - really the bottom 3 could simply be lumped together but Denver probably has more pieces on offense than the other two. A brutal schedule will make it difficult to win 6 games. Must get off to a good start. Defense can't be worse or can it. I predict Orton will be a short-term solution and may not start the whole season. I've followed the Broncos for 33 years now and I fully expect this to be the worse one. The loss of Cutler makes me sick to my stomach. You don't give up on franchise QBs that easy.

3. Oakland - Russell ain't the answer and Davis has lost his marbles.

4. Kansas City - Is Cassell the next Scott Mitchell? Did you say you can't remember Mitchell. EXACTLY!

AFC CENTRAL

1. Pittsburgh - Hard to pick against the defending champs. They've got all the pieces in place for a repeat. They are still young and have great coaching.

2. Baltimore - QB will probably a few bumps along the way but the defense will keep them in every game.

3. Cincinnati - Carson Palmer better stay healthy. Not much else going on here.

4. Cleveland - How long will the latest Browns coach last. Will the starting QB make it to game 2? Can this team ever live up to expectations even if they are low.

AFC SOUTH

1. Tennessee - I'm a huge Jeff Fischer supporter. I think he's the most underappreciated coach in the league. He won't match last season's win total but they play tough. Better keep that old QB healthy though.

2. Indianapolis - I'm not ready to count this team out just yet. A new coach will mean a slight adjustment but with Manning, Adai and sound OL, they'll be fine. Key as always will be defense.

3. Houston - Can't seem to get over that hump. This year might be different but they'll need to be dominant at home and win at least one against Indy.

4. Jacksonville - Team has fallen a lot and will probably fall farther before coming back up.

AFC EAST

1. New England - Don't be fooled by Miami's division title. That was a fluke. New England will return to the top with Brady at the helm. Still plenty of talent to compete for at least another season.

2. New York Jets - Give them second place by default since I think Miami tumbles back to earth. With Sanchez starting a QB it'll be difficult to get much consistency but a lot of other pieces are in place. Where are the WRs?

3. Miami - Parcells must be thrilled with how quickly the team turned it around but will he be patient enough to deal with a setback. QB questions will always be there until they find someone to take the reigns from Pennington.

4. Buffalo - Another team with potential QB issues. Owens might be wanting out before the season is over.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle - It might not take much to win this division so I'm going to go with a suprise pick in Seattle. A resurgent defense will lead the way.

2. Arizona - Warner won't last the whole season and Leinhart won't be up to task of taking over. With more teams gunning for them they'll find the going difficult.

3. St. Louis - Mired in a deep rebuilding process with an aging/fragile QB, problems on defense, a young OL and diminishing talent at WR. All they can hope for is baby steps forward.

4. San Francisco - I think they've got the right coach but there aren't enough playmakers on either side of the ball. Wouldn't shock me to see them play 4 QBs this season.

NFC NORTH

1. Chicago - The trendy pick is probably Minnesota but I think Chicago had the better QB upgrade. Cutler will lose a couple but he'll win more. The big question mark may be who'll step up at WR.

2. Minnesota - At least they didn't have to give up anything to get Favre. But anything less than a Super Bowl appearance is going to make that experiment a failure. With so much focus on Favre, can he find a way to share the spotlight with the true franchise player, Adrian Peterson. Will Brett retire again if he throws another 20 picks.

3. Green Bay - How much do you think this team wants to beat Favre? I'm guessing they pull that off but come up short against a lot of other opponents.

4. Detroit - I thought 0-16 should have recinded their charter. Is 2-14 a successful season? How long till hockey season starts?

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta - Could it be? Two winning seasons in a row for the first time in franchise history. YES! Certainly helps that the rest of the division appears headed downward. There is a lot to like about this young team. If they could find some defense they could be a Super Bowl contender.

2. New Orleans - So much talent on offense. So little on defense.

3. Carolina - Where's their QB of the future. A nice two-headed running attack and a good coach but injuries are already mounting. Age is creeping up as well.

4. Tampa Bay - Maybe Gruden got the best gift when he was let go. A huge group of QBs and not a decent backup in the bunch. No playmakers to speak of. Leadership is gone or going.

AFC EAST

1. New York Giants - I like Philly but think the Giants outlast them in a fight to the wire due to more consistency from the QB position. They'll need to find WRs to carry the load.

2. Philadelphia - Will McNabb play well with Vick in the background. Can Westbrook stay healthy the whole season. The answers to those questions mean the difference between a Super Bowl contender and 3rd place division finish.

3. Dallas - Ever year them seem to disappoint. So, I'll pick against them this year. If they get off to a slow start, look for Jerry Jones to call Mike Shanahan and offer him the gig.

4. Washington - Clinton Portis can only do so much. Jason Campell's best option might be a fresh start. Dan Snyder might try to beat Jerry Jones to the punch and call Shanahan next week.

AFC WILDCARDs
Baltimore
Indianapolis

NFC WILDCARDs
Minnesota
Philadelphia

AFC ROUND 1
New England over Indianapolis
Baltimore over Tennessee

NFC ROUND 1
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Minnesota over Seattle

AFC ROUND 2
Pittsburgh over Baltimore
San Diego over New England

NFC ROUND 2
Chicago over Minnesota
New York Gians over Atlanta

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Pittsburgh over San Diego

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
New York Gians over Chicago

SUPER BOWL
Pittsburgh over New York Giants

No exactly the matchup I want to see or the outcome but I do think Pittsburgh has all the pieces in place to repeat.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Summer Over?

The blog has gotten neglected over the summer. While I never expected my activity to be a day-to-day thing, I did expect to add some content more often than the change of the seasons.

While I won't offer up excuses for the lack of activity, I will offer up some explanation. I've doing a lot of the mundane this summer. No big vacations, no significant events. Some recharging of the system and some shedding of the past. I'm just trying to figure out how all the pieces fit together as life moves forward.

My last significant blog entry surrounded the ending of the NHL playoff season. While I was pretty disappointed with the final result, it was almost a relief when it was all over. Being a Red Wings fan means LONG seasons. The last two lasted from the beginning of October all the way into mid-June. The playoffs are an emotional roller coaster ride and they take a lot out of me. Following a team that often ends up playing late games on the West coast makes it that much tougher. However, there isn't much I like to watch better than NHL hockey so I'll begin the process again in a few short weeks. More on that in upcoming posts.

I've kept my blog entries about the NFL to a minimum. I've become more than a bit disgusted with the NFL, in general, and my favorite team, the Denver Broncos, in particular. A proud and consistent franchise has been filled with turmoil this off season and I'm not at all happy about the decisions or direction. While I could have shared my misery here, I decided to keep it mostly to myself. I almost considered kicking the NFL to the proverbial curb but in the end I decided it's claws were in too deep. I've taken a step back from the league. We'll see if the new season changes my perspective at all. I will put forth some predictions in the next week. Here's a sneak preview, THE BRONCOS WILL SUCK!

Perhaps by now you are asking yourself "without sports to watch and no travel plans what the hell did you do with the summer?" The answer is I took on two significant projects. Neither of which I expect would excite anyone outside myself.

First and foremost I decided to reeducate myself. For far too long my career education has been at a standstill while technology has been moving at an alarming rate. My previous lack of commitment to reeducation was mostly by design. In software development, technologies come and go. Often times it is a waste of an effort to learn something that will quickly be rendered obsolete by newer, "better" approach. For this reason, I frequently sit back and let the technology take a foothold first. When the techniques are widespread and tools are stable, then it is worthwhile to jump in. Things finally stabilized in the last couple years and I knew what I wanted to focus on. It is pretty much impossible to know everything well in my field. Instead you have to narrow focus to a few specific areas.

With this in mind, I found software project to work on in my spare time (no sneak peek yet) and purchased about a dozen books about the different technologies that will be used for it and my paying gig. I've been working my way through these texts all summer long. With over 3000 pages behind me, I've learned a lot but I've only just begun applying that knowledge. 3000 pages is just a start. Another 3000 await on the bookshelf, including some for this Labor Day weekend.

The other monumental task (I never seem to do anything small) has been digitizing my rather large collection of cassette tapes. For 6+ years all the music I collected on cassette tape has been sitting in a box in one of my closets. Without a cassette player hooked up for the last 4 years and pretty much idle for 3+ years before that, much of it hasn't been heard in 7+ years. There was a lot of it I really wanted to reclaim and hear again especially now that I frequently listen to music at work and on the go (hikes & travel). Getting this all into a digital form would be ideal. I'd already purchased significant storage space and ripped all my CDs. However, CDs were simple compared to cassettes. I had all the tools I needed. I just need to commit the time. Now was that time.

This task started in late June and continues to this day. In fact, a cassette is recording to the hard drive now and another is being broken in tracks and cataloged as I type. With 250+ cassettes representing 400+ recordings, it has been a laborious task. Approximately 50 tapes remain. The process involves:

1. Recording (analog to digital) cassette to hard drive.
2. Split cassette into individual songs/tracks. A couple tools help with this process but it is still time consuming.
3. Labeling each track (artist, album, song). Tools help tremendously here.
4. Adding to media library.

The whole process takes an average of 25 minutes of my time per cassette side, a majority in step #2. Some take longer (noisier live recordings) and some are quick (clean CD recordings) Meanwhile the PC and cassette player are running 4-5 hours just about every day doing step #1. I do have to force myself to take time away from this task or I'll go stir crazy. However, I think the time has been well worth the effort. There is a ton of music I still enjoy quite a bit that has been unlocked in the last couple months.

I didn't travel much over the summer because I was watching my budget, Crimson was busy with volleyball and had some other plans fall apart. We did find time to take in some whitewater rafting on the Ocoee and I just returned from visiting family in Winnipeg. I am starting to think about a fall trip but need to determine when Crimson's volleyball season ends before finalizing anything.

Here's a couple pics from the rafting trip. That's Crimson on the front of the raft, "riding the bull" and me in the red up front.


I'll leave it at that for now. Textbooks and cassette recordings are calling.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Hossa "Celebration"

IF (I am not making any assumptions at this point) the Detroit Red Wings win tonight, I expect captain Lidstrom will hand the cup to Hossa first. If not first, soon there after. Since Hossa defected from Pittsburgh to Detroit in the offseason, will the Pittsburgh Penguins fans be able to handle this situation with some class? Even booing is a little tasteless at this point, but could understand it. However, throwing objects is completely unacceptable. I've got to wonder if security is taking extra measures to deal with a situation that could get ugly.

I’ve got to imagine Hossa is under incredible pressure. A generally stoic individual, it wouldn't shock me if he breakdown in tears after it’s all over. It’d be nice if he could enjoy the celebration on the ice with his team. However, I’m sure he’d be content to celebrate at the parade (which will be interesting in its own right) and during his day with the cup.

Let's Go Red Wings.

Saturday, May 30, 2009

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Finals

Three rounds done, only one to go. It seems like forever since the playoffs started. The beard is growing thick and the days are getting longer. Frankly, I'll be relieved when it is finally over.

The conference finals turned out much as I expected. I was a little surprised that Carolina couldn't muster a win but the better team prevailed in each series and showed why they met just last season for the right to host Lord Stanley's Cup.

Depth, powerplay and goaltending were the key in each conference final and experience was a major factor in the Wings victory over Chicago. I expect Chicago to learn from the experience and handle the situation a little better in coming seasons. No guarantee they'll get back next year but when they do, they'll be more prepared. Carolina's got a tougher task ahead as their roster is getting older and they'll need an influx of youth to compete against an younger and improving conference.

Detroit #1 - Penguins #4
Prediction : Detroit in 7

You might have noticed I wanted till less than 2 hours before puck drop to make my prediction. I had to hear the latest on the Wings injuries. Looks like Lidstrom (lower body injury) and Ericsson (appendicitis) will play but Datsyuk (foot) and Draper (groin) are out. Lidstrom is critical. Without him, it would be a different series. Every minute Chelios sees the ice, the chance of an opponents goal skyrockets. I'll rest much easier if he's in street clothes as he'll be in game 1. The Wings can overcome the loss of MVP candidate Datsyuk due to incredible depth up front. Hopefully he'll return before the series is over. Draper is great on faceoffs and penalty kill but there are other players to fill his role.

The Peguins will do everything they can to jump out quick. With the first 4 games in 6 nights, the schedule certainly favors the healthier Pens. They really need to win one of the first two in Detroit. Skill-wise I think the Pens are a notch below last year but mentally they should be more prepared. They must continue to play strong defense to stay in the series. Offensively they'll need to drive the net and be patient. The Wings are the best defense they've faced this postseason by leaps and bounds. The Wings just got done playing a very skilled team so they should be prepared to handle the likes of Malkin and Crosby.

Its cliche but goaltending and powerplay will be the key. Neither team has a goalie generally seen in the top of the league. However, both get the job done well. Osgood's experience puts him in a better position to recover from a poor outing. Not sure I can say the same for Fluery. Both teams have lethal powerplays so neither can afford to take dumb penalties.

I know a lot of talk surrounds the fact that the Penguins are "hungrier" this year and that could be the difference. I don't buy into that much. With the Cup so close for both teams, they'll both be giving it all they've got. I don't think the Hossa situation (leaving Penguins for Detroit in the offseason) is a big factor except for the fact that he's one more weapon the Wings have that the Pens don't. It might put a little personal pressure on Hossa but I have a feeling he'll come up big at some point.

I love what the Penguins did at the trade deadline adding Guerin and Kunitz. Their leadership and experience are part of the reason I picked them to get this far. However, I also like what the Wings did at the trade deadline (nothing). Their biggest additions have been guys who've been playing in the minors all year because there was no salary room for them to play in Detroit. Helm and Ericsson have made a huge impact. Leino and Abdelkater have filled vital roles. Honestly, I don't think the Wings could have made it this far without them.

A somewhat interesting thing to watch is who might rise to legendary status and earn the Conn Smythe Trophy if Detroit should win. If it's Pittsburgh, the trophy is almost certainly Crosby or Malkin's. Detroit has a lot of unusual names in the running including Cleary, Filpulla, Stuart and Osgood. Any one of those would have been a shocker at the start of the playoffs. Of course, Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Franzen are also contenders.

A final note. A came into the playoffs determined to pick against the Wings at some point. But the team turned a switch when the "real" season began and has really elevated its play. A couple fortunate events (San Jose and Vancouver losing) certainly didn't hurt. Now that they've made it this far, I might as well stick with them. Had Lidstrom been out for game 1 I would have gone with the Pens. I truly believe the series will be real close. Either way I expect it to be an entertaining affair. Two good rosters with a lot of skill and a lot of determination. Two good coaches. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked to see them meet up again next year.

Game On!

Friday, May 22, 2009

Crimson Middle School Graduation

Holy cow! Where did the time go? Nine years ago Crimson walked in the doors of Faith Lutheran and yesterday she left having graduated from 8th grade. A lot of friends were made, lessons were learned and bones were broken. Through it all Crimson persevered. Just a few months from now she'll start a new adventure in high school.

All the kids (I refuse to label them young adults just yet) were dressed up nice and came prepared to give personal speeches, each one impressive in its own way. Proud parents were in attendance and flashbulbs popped like paparazzi as the kids received their diplomas and walked off the stage. A night all will remember.

Here's a couple photos from that night as well as one from the first day of school. Can you tell which is which?

Saturday, May 16, 2009

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Round 3

The conference final round is finally here but it took 3 or the 4 series going to game 7 to find the participants. None of the losers have anything to be ashamed of.

Vancouver getting beat out was the biggest surprise to me. Not so much that they lost to Chicago but the way they did it. All 4 Chicago victories were come from behind affairs. Vancouver had Chicago on the ropes in game 4 leading with less then 4 minutes to go. Losing that game in OT turned the series. Luongo had a very bad series after looking like world beater in round 1. Vancouver created the team around defense and it was this strength that let them down. With the Sedin twins heading towards free agency it'll be interesting to see how they move forward.

Carolina simply refuses to go away. Every time I'm ready to count them out, they rally. Coming through in OT in game 7 was cutting it close but I think the veterans had a lot to do with it. That and a goalie named Ward. Getting tough to pick against these guys. Boston had a great season and has a nice core in place to be in the thick of things for years to come.

The Pittsburgh - Washington series was a wild one with the superstars shining on the biggest stage. However, defense became secondary and continuing to play like that won't get Pittsburgh far. I'm pretty sure Washington has found its goalie of the future and they'll be back to try again next year.

The Anaheim - Detroit series was a simply amazing display of team defense on both sides. Anaheim had everything clicking but in the end succumbed to the depth of the Red Wings. This was undoubtedly the toughest series I've seen the Wings play in the last 15 years. So little ice to work with and a goaltender who didn't budge much when the puck made in on target.

Predicting these series is getting tougher and tougher. The conference finals are two nice matchups and anything can happen at this point.

Eastern Conference

Pittsburgh #4 vs Carolina #6
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 6

I picked the Penguins to come out of the East at the beginning and I'm sticking to my guns. Carolina is an opportunistic team and Pittsburgh smart to prevent the Canes from getting any opportunities to steal games. All the talent in Pittsburgh must find a way to break through Ward without allowing the Canes as much freedom as they allowed Washington. If this series comes down to goaltending Carolina/Ward has the edge. Carolina's best chance is to keep it low scoring, steal one of the first two. Falling behind early could be suicide.

Western Conference

Detroit #2 vs Chicago #4
Prediction : Detroit in 6

An original 6 matchup. First time since 1995 these teams meet up in Conference finals. Much will be made of the youth vs experience. The same sort of speak that was used last year in the finals where Deroits veterans dispatch of the Penguins with relative ease. Chicago is a feisty bunch and I don't expect them to go easy. But after playing the Ducks the ice is going to feel twice as big (in a good way) to these Wings. The Wings can play a up tempo game with the Hawks if they'd like but I expect they'll try to be more methodical. Detroits strong defense will be the difference. Khabibulin has never been a big problem for the Wings. Here's hoping this isn't the first time. Osgood has look very strong in the playoffs and put the dreadful regular season well behind him.

In all honesty, I was planning to pick against the Wings in this round. But then I thought it would be Vancouver or San Jose at the other end of the ice. I probably would have picked against the Wings in the last round had I known Rafalski was out for the first 5 games. Now, I can't do it, I think this is a bit of mismatch. The opponents just seem to lining up nicely for the Wings. Plus, they've got a couple of rookies that are playing beyond their experience and the defense is finally showing consistency.

The one thing that scares me is the penalty kill. Never could put a finger on why it was bad all season. It's been just as bad in the playoffs. A lot of it I think is dumb luck. It had better improve because the Blackhawks can take advantage of it. I think its the only way the Chicago boys steal the series.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Round 2

I cannot believe how much hockey I've watched over the last two weeks. I managed to catch parts of just about every series including a lot of the Detroit - Columbus (obviously), San Jose - Anaheim, New York - Washington and Chicago - Calgary. A lot of really entertaining games.

I can't say I'm too surprised by the outcome of any series. I was a little shocked that there were 3 sweeps. Montreal was a complete embarrassment while Columbus and St. Louis were clearly over matched. The ending to the New Jersey - Carolina series will go down in the history books as one of the most dramatic ever.

What will be interesting to watch in the next few months is how some of the first round losers deal with those losses :

Montreal - major change is coming because near half the team is free agents. There are now questions about goaltending going forward and an ownership change is coming. Their 100th season was not one to remember.

New York Rangers - there defense kept them in the series but their lack of scoring kept them from moving on. To put up only 1 third period shot in game 7 and only 15 total for the game ain't going to get it done. Now burdened with a lot of big contracts, it'll be difficult to assemble some offense. They desperately need more playmakers AND more finishers.

New Jersey - How does a team rebound from losing a series in the last 90 seconds? Bound to be tough for this relatively old group.

Philadelphia - Best position of the losers moving forward but the fans aren't going to be happy with a first round loss. Any offseason moves might require some salary movement but with plenty of youth on the way up that should be possible.

San Jose - So many playoff disappointments are bound to take their toll. Look for management to break up at least some of the pieces. Talk about a long offseason.

Columbus - Nothing to be ashamed of here. There are some nice pieces moving forward for this team. It won't get any easier though with the rest of the Central Division on the rise or at the top.

Calgary - The big trade deadline deals were a bust. Losing for the 4th time in a row in the first round won't sit well in this hockey proud town. Keenan could be on his way out or major moves might happen. Their move to load up on really physically players may be holding the team back.

St. Louis - A major accomplishment just getting there. Grabbing the 6th seed was a boon to the Wings & Canucks and a bust to San Jose. It'll be interesting to see if they can carry it over to next season when they are bound to be healthier.

Now for round two matchups :

Eastern Conference

#1 Boston vs #6 Carolina
Prediction : Boston in 6

Carolina wants to play the up tempo game and I don't think Boston is going to permit that. The playmakers in Boston will be too much for the Canes to handle. I expect the Canes will be able to keep the games tight by come up short.

#2 Washington vs #4 Pittsburgh
Predicition : Pittsburgh in 6

Time for the stars to shine. 2 of the three MVP candidates (Ovechkin / Malkin) will be out on the ice along with the Norris favorite (Green). Of course, the leagues marketing department won't let me forget that Crosby is really the best. In series like this it is often the veteran role players that make a difference. Pittsburgh has more of those and a power play that'll testing the Caps rookie goaltender, Varlamov, to his limit. With a better defense as well, the Pens will prevail.

Western Conference

#2 Detroit vs #8 Anaheim
Prediction : Detroit in 6

Detroit had a much easier time than I expected dispatching Columbus. They certainly can turn it up in the playoffs. It'll take another notch to dispense the more talented Ducks. The Ducks are asking for trouble if they play out of control and take penalties like they did in the Shark series. Detroit's power play is much more efficient than San Jose's. Ducks best chance is too keep it low scoring and hope Osgood is less than stellar particularly early. With more scoring and just as much defense as the Ducks I expect to see the Wings in the next round.

#3 Vancouver vs #4 Chicago
Prediction : Vancouver in 7

Chicago look very good against Calgary but did have trouble on defense at times. Vancouver dispatched of St. Louis while hardly breaking a sweat. Look for the home team to hold serve but the stronger goaltending of Vancouver prevail in the end. This is a learning year for the young Chicago team and bowing out to Vancouver is nothing to be ashamed of. Chicago's only chance will be to get to Luongo early in the series. Lose both in Vancouver and Chicago is done.

Pinhoti Trail at Horn Mountain Hike



Its been far too long since I did a hike in Georgia. Many things have worked against an excursion into the wilderness lately but the stars aligned for this Saturday and I hit the road/trail on a beautiful 85 degree day.

This moderately challenging hike did a good job of keeping my heart rate up. I saw only two other hikers and they were during my first 10 minutes of this three hour hike.

The biggest drawback to this adventure was that there was so little to see. The best vistas at the top of the mountain were blocked by numerous trees. The trail itself was well maintained and easily accessible from I-75 so I may go back and check out some of the other sections of this fairly long trail.




Tuesday, April 14, 2009

NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions - Round 1

I'm challenging myself to keep this brief. Something I never seem to accomplish with these blog entries.

These matchups are especially tough. Several of the mid to late season leaders seem to struggle down the stretch and many of the lower seeds come in on a high note or have been playing playoff style hockey for weeks in hopes of sneaking in.

The first round is especially tough. I think that's because the higher seeds face the most pressure in this round and a single slip at home in one of the first two games can create doubt and send them tumbling out. Lower seeds generally have nothing to lose as their seasons are often considered a success if they just get one playoff victory.

Eastern Conference

#1 Boston vs #8 Montreal
Prediction : Boston in 7
Montreal was my preseason favorite to win it all but they haven't played consistently well all season. I don't expect that to suddenly start now. Boston is a well balanced team with all it takes to win it all. This is a legendary matchup between two teams with a lot of history so I don't expect it to be easy but Boston's defense should prevail.

#2 Washington vs #7 New York Rangers
Prediction : Washington in 7
Offensive juggernaut vs defensive standout. I really don't think the Rangers will have enough offense to keep up except in the games where their defense plays error free. Washington has played well throughout the season and is looking to build on the regular season success. Higher expectations in D.C. this time around may get to a relatively young group. But Rangers aren't consistent enough to dispatch them.

#3 New Jersey vs #6 Carolina
Prediciton : New Jersey in 6
Carolina has been awful hot lately but I have a feeling they may have peaked too soon. Broduer will slow them down offensively and the Canes are much better at dealing with a high scoring affair. A lot of veterans on both rosters should make for compelling and disciplined hockey.

#4 Pittsburgh vs #5 Philadelphia
Predicition : Pittsburgh in 7
Two weeks ago I would have picked the Flyers to win the East. Now I don't think they make it out of the first series. Philly has a great chance to win this series and recapture some momentum but they need to make an impact quick and avoid undisciplined hockey. Pittsburgh seems to be playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. If they can get their defense to play like last spring, they'll have a good chance of getting to the finals.

Western Conference
#1 San Jose vs #8 Anaheim
Prediction : San Jose in 6
San Jose couldn't have been too thrilled when this matchup was finally decided on the last night of the season. This series will be extremely physical and take a toll on whoever wins. I'm not buying into Anaheim being a serious contender simply because I don't think they have enough secondary scoring. Pressure is on San Jose though and an early loss could create a lot of doubt. Just too many weapons at the Sharks' disposal.

#2 Detroit vs #7 Columbus
Predicition : Detroit in 6
Finally the Wings get to play some meaningful games. The bad news is their defense and goaltending have been sub par all year. The good news is they still won 50 games and played their best when a big game comes along. If the Wings get off to a good start look for it to carry them deep in the playoffs. Poor goaltending could see them out before the second round. Columbus is very underrated. A sound team defensively with very good goaltending and the sniper Nash up front. They'll want to play a low scoring affair as they cannot match the Wings offensively. Any chance for the Blue Jackets lies in their ability to stay out of the penalty box.

#3 Vancouver vs #6 St. Louis
Predicition : Vancouver in 5
As much as I respect the Blues for getting this far, I think the party is about to come to an end. They simply lack the talent to keep up with the Canucks at either end of the ice. Luongo has come on strong since returning from injury and the Sedin twins are too much to handle. Should be an interesting game to watch with a lot of speed on the ice. Don't expect the Blues to go down easy, just eventually.

#4 Chicago vs #5 Calgary
Prediction : Chicago in 7
Two teams heading in opposite directions as the season ended. Chicago is emerging as force to be reckoned with and Calgary is struggling to find the identity the carried them for the first 3/4 of the season. With Keenan's job potentially on the line, any significant errors could result in a blow up. Both teams will have very loud home crowds and goaltending will be a key. Usually I'd go with the veteran laden team in such a matchup but I've got a feeling Calgary will self implode.

First set of predictions wouldn't be complete without a finals prediction. I cannot stick with Montreal beating Detroit as I originally predicted back in October. In fact, I don't think either team makes the finals although I expect Detroit to be in the mix.

I'm going with Pittsburgh over San Jose. The way things are setting up, San Jose is going to have a dog fight to get there. While Pittsburgh faces some serious competition, things will be incredibly physical out West. I'm not really confident in either of these picks. I think Detroit, Vancouver and Boston are also serious contenders. Only time will tell.

Monday, April 13, 2009

NHL Regular Season Review

The 82 game, 6 month ordeal is finally finished. Now the "real" season begins. However, before I put up my playoff predictions I want to review some of my predictions from way back in October.

Detroit Red Wings
Much of what I expected came true. The Wings were dominant offensively and Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Hossa and Franzen led the way. Datsyuk may be the most underrated player in the game but his performance is hard to ignore. While the MVP will likely go to Ovechkin, I expect Datsyuk will be one of the finalists. He may well be the best overall player in the game.

What I didn't expect was the inconsistency of the Detroit defense. Part of it was the poor goaltending of Osgood but he wasn't alone in blame. I think some of it was the "cup hangover" but the fact that it persisted through late March is a bit disturbing. Maybe once the playoff start they'll find there groove again. There is simply too much talent for them to struggle that much.

If the defense and goaltending hadn't struggled I suspect they would have run away with the President's trophy and maybe set some league records. Instead, another 50 win season and a #2 seed is their reward. There are about 2 dozen teams who wish they had such a "bad" season.

Atlanta Thrashers
I had a ton of questions heading into the season but none may have been more appropriate than "Overall, I can't see how this won't be a better team. The question is really how long will it take to see that as Ws in the standings." My goodness it took a long time. It wasn't until late February until things turned around.

There are now signs they are headed in the right direction. This time with young players and a young coach who can grow together and create identity for the franchise. It took trading away Williams, Schneider and Havelid to turn the corner. It took finally stitching the captain's "C" on Kovy's chest to send the signal. It took claiming a reject, Peverly, off waivers, to make the pieces fit. Know everyone seems to have a distinct role and is accepting their role within the team.

Bogosian started slow as one would expect a 18 year old rookie defenseman to do. Just when he got confident a broken leg set him back. But on his return he clearly showed why he was picked so high and has what I think are the makings of an All Star defenseman. Little emerged in his second season as a bonafide scoring threat, someone other teams must respect. Reasoner and Armstrong filled vital roles both on and off the ice.

Less than a season after taking so much heat for not retaining Hossa, Waddell must be commended for the moves he didn't make as as well as the ones he did. Many teams came calling for Armstrong but Waddell knew just how valuable he'll be going forward. He moved Havelid and Schneider knowing he'd have to fill their roles with youngsters and the youngsters flourished.

There is as much hope for the Thrashers future as there has ever been.

Eastern Conference

Surprise Team - Boston - I just didn't think they were ready to play so consistently well. They obviously found the secondary scoring I was concerned about and have one of the best defenses in the East.

Team Disappointment - Montreal Canadiens. Ottawa might have got this nod but they played really well the second half. Montreal never regained the magic they had last year and most of the blame must fall on Carey Price.

Surprise Player - Jeff Carter - Emerged as a dominant scoring threat and a real catalyst for the Flyers.

Disappointing Player - Wade Redden - Huge contract with so little in return. Rangers are going to have a hard time dealing with him over the next few years.

Western Conference

Surprise Team - St. Louis Blues - I initially wanted to pick them as a playoff team but I thought they'd never be able to overcome the loss of Jackman. The overcame his loss plus many others.

Disappointing Team - Dallas Stars - First the Avery experiment goes haywire. A nasty losing streak to start the season and another to finish the season. How did this team make the conference finals last year?

Surprise Player - Khabibulin - Put on waivers once and available to any team willing to pay half his salary. He comes back and leads the Blackhawks to 100pts and their first home ice advantage in 16 years.

Disappointing Player - Osgood - Off a playoff performance where he was worthy of MVP consideration, he has the worse year of his career behind one of the best defense in NHL history. Dishonerable mention must go to Sean Avery for his ridiculous choice of words.

Thrashers Game Report - 04/11/09

Atlanta 6 - Tampa Bay 2

The final report from the 2008-09 season is a good one. A strong performance from beginning to end in front of an unusually large crowd. It certainly was nice to end the season on a positive note after having to suffer through some enormous growing pains.

Just about all the Thrashers' offensive firepower was on display as the Thrashers controlled the game from the opening puck drop. Great puck movement, hard forecheck and sound defense led to numerous scoring opportunities. While the power play was less than stellar during a 5 on 3 they were able to capitalize shorthanded once again. Scoring came from all over the ice with even Perrin, Stuart and Hainsey getting in on the action.

There were numerous early fights bringing the crowd to their feet. For a game with so little at stake there was quite a bit of energy in the building. The Thrashers responded to this energy with energy of their own. They easily could have put up another handful of goals with beautiful plays that resulted in near misses.

It was nice to see Kari back in goal for the final game after being out for over a week with an injury. He played a good game coming up big on several occasions.

On this fan appreciation night I noticed there were fewer giveaways than seasons past. Only the "jerseys off our backs" was significant. A simple video montage was presented to the fans at the end of night to cap off the season.

The season certainly tried my patience but I do see signs of life. Once again the Thrashers face a critical offseason as they try to build on the success of the final quarter by retaining critical players (Lehtonen, Reasoner) and adding a few more. Tuesday night they'll have a 10.7% chance of landing the top overall pick. Landing one of the top 2 picks would be a great way to begin the offseason.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Thrashers Game Report - 04/09/09

Florida 3 - Atlanta 2

The regular season is winding down and the playoffs are just around the corner. Unfortunately, Atlanta's shot at the playoffs was gone long ago. Miserable play the first 3 months of the season had them a lot closer to the bottom than the top 8 in the conference.

However, Atlanta has been playing a lot better lately. Coming together as a team and playing much better defensively. The young defensemen have found their niche and got increased ice time since the departure of veterans Schneider and Havelid. The offense has found some secondary scoring in the likes of Armstrong and Peverly. They recently won 11 of 14 contests before dropping two to the Washington Capitals. They've been a thorn in the side of teams looking to gain an easy two points in the battle for playoff spots.

They've been playing the kind of hockey I wanted to see all year long. Hard fought, never give up style. A team that clearly lacks some of the talent of their rivals must learn to make up for it with hard consistent work. Hopefully the success of the late season run will carry over into next year and with a couple additions get the team back in the playoff hunt.

The Thrashers played up to the recent success on this night but didn't get the desired results. Playing against a Florida team that absolutely had to have a win, the Thrashers matched their intensity quite well. In fact, through the first two periods I thought the Thrashers played the better game.

The intensity resulted in a ton of penalties early and a bunch of power play opportunities. Unfortunately, the Thrashers blew their biggest chance when they couldn't capitalize on a 5 on 3 for a full 2 minutes. The teams traded power play goals with rookie Bogosian getting the tally for Atlanta. Bogosian is going to be an All-Star in the league and his rookie campaign has been great. If it wasn't for breaking his leg, he'd certainly be in the running for rookie of the year.

With the heightened intensity came several scraps, none better than the fight between Kovalchuk and McCabe. Kaptain Kovy got the better of McCabe landing a few good shots and taking him down to the ice on two occasions. The crowd went nuts and Kovy egged them on while heading for the penalty box.

Tied at 1-1 entering the third period, the Thrashers got on top when Bogosian got his second tally of the game, this time short-handed. But that was to be the end of the Thrashers scoring as Florida could sense their playoff hopes slipping away and dug down deep to up their play just one more notch. The Panthers got the tying goal on a tip-in and the winning goal on a snap shot down close. The Thrashers had their chances to tie it but came up short.

Overall a well played hockey game by both sides. While you could tell Florida had more to play for, the Thrashers didn't back down or go away quietly. Bogosian put up a stellar effort and Kovaluchuk got the crowd to its feet on again. Hedberg played well in net and even 1st timer Wilson looked good. Only Exelby got a goat in this game.

Final note. The arena was as empty as I've ever seen when the doors opened and during warmups. But by the time the game got going it was respectable considering the factors (Thrashers out of the playoffs, middle week game, non-traditional opponent).

Next up is the Thrasher's final contest of the year Saturday night. I'll be in attendance hoping the team ends the season on a positive note.

Sunday, March 29, 2009

Is There a Doctor in the House?

Crimson has been playing "club" volleyball for the last couple months. This is a travelling team that has played tournaments in Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia. While her team has had its struggles, Crimson's game has really improved as she's been taking instruction well and putting a lot of effort into fitness training and volleyball drills.

That all came to a screeching halt two weeks ago. While running cross court during a drill, Crimson managed to step onto another ball. A lot pop was heard and she went down in serious pain holding her ankle. The ankle began to swell immediately.

X-Rays were taken that night but revealed no broken bones, just a severe sprain. A couple days later the orthopedists put her in a stiff splint plus a walking boot but said she could resume volleyball practice in a few days. Last Sunday and Tuesday Crimson went to practice and did her best to participate. However, following Tuesday's practice she was in a great deal of pain and had to return to the doctor. This time the doctor elected to put her in a cast for 3 weeks.

With one tournament this weekend and the last the day after the cast comes off, her volleyball season is essentially over. We spent yesterday watching her teammates play but Crimson was a bit heartbroken not to be part of it. She's determined to make a full recovery and participate start again next year.

Her boot
The cast

Hockey Shots

A couple pictures from the Thrashers - Red Wings game on 3/20/09

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Thrashers Game Report - 03/26/09

Atlanta 5 - New York 4 SO

Quite a contrast from the game against the Wings. This time the arena was less than half full. Ranger fans were plenty but were numerous or vocal enough to drown out Thrasher fans. It was back up to the cheaper seats at the top of the arena.

Thrashers started very strong taking the forecheck to The Rangers and controlling. Good effort resulted in the puck in the net but no goal due to quick "yankee" whistle.

The a slew of penalties began. Thrashers played a majority of the first half shorthanded including a couple 5 on 3s. Rangers had one goal disallowed because of high stick but got the lead despite good penalty kill.

The Thrashers were able to get an equalizer but kept drawing penalties. Rangers got another 3 goals including soft shot from the point that Hedberg misplayed.

Down 4-1 the Thrashers spirit was low and you could see it in their play. With less than 30 seconds in 2nd period, it was Kaptain Kovy to the rescue. With a burst down the right, Kovy faked a move to the middle forcing the goalie to move and gaining a stride on the defenseman as he flew behind the net. Before the goalie could recover, Kovy circled the net a stuufed in the back side. The Thrashers suddenly had hope down 4-2.

The Thrashers took the momentum and ran with it. Again they outplayed the Rangers but this time they got results Kovy set up two more goals including a beautiful pass to White for the tying tally. The clock ran out and a loud cheer rang for the great come from behind effort.

OT was pretty disorganized by both sides with few scoring opportunities. The shoot went 10 shootera with a single goal. Hedberg did a great job challenging the NY shooters. Finally Todd White got a puck past Valleque and the Rangers couldn't watch. Sweet victory and bunch of bummed out Ranger fans left wondering if the one point they gave up would be critical in the playoff race.

Kovy was easily my first star although Todd White got the official honor. Hedberg and Exelby were big goats early but at least Hedberg made up for it late. The Rangers looked bad despite early lead and wont last long in the playoffs if they play like that.

Finally i'll share red-neck hockey quote of the night :

"if that guy could hit a puck up here, the Braves would draft him in second"

I couldn't decide if this quote was stupid or arrogant. Probably both.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Thrashers Game Report - 03/20/09

Detroit 6 - Atlanta 3

Finally another chance for me to see my other favorite team in Atlanta. I can't believe it has been almost 3 years since their last regular season appearance. Last time around the Thrashers fared much better.

This was no contest from the opening faceoff. The Wings simply toyed with the Thrashers as they are apt to do to many teams when they are on their game. The Thrashers simply had no answer for their quick puck movement, creative playmakers or stifling defense.

Most teams like to use Detroit as a measuring stick. If that was the case on this Friday night, the Thrashers have an awfully long way to go. Although I am generally pleased with the direction the Thrashers are taking, there are still numerous steps before they'll be a serious contender. The Wings, on the other hand, can dominate the playoffs again if they can play the way they did versus the Thrashers.

Although listed as a home game on the Thrashers schedule, it sure didn't feel like it. Wings fans easily outnumbered, out yelled and out cheered the Thrasher fans. Only the Hossa boos from Thrasher fans were loud. I'll admit it was nice being in an arena with so much energy, even if it was the visiting team generating the most interest. I just hope that some day the Thrashers can have the same energy behind them.

We took our places front row behind the glass in the corner. What great seats these were. More leg room than any seat I've had and a really nice perspective on the game. Nothing quite like seeing two players chasing the puck into the corner, a players face smashed up against the glass or a nice centering pass by Kovalchuk from inches in front of us. You get a much better sense of speed of players and the puck as well as the size of the players. The sounds of the game are great too, even if I the 250lb female Red Wing fan was trying to drown them out with her constant screaming.

I came hoping to see a close game and a Red Wings victory since they need the points more. At least I got one of the two. The Wings jumped out to a early lead courtesy of a couple of power play goals and a couple of 4 on 4 goals and never looked back. The best the Thrashers could do was keep playing hard which resulted in a couple late goals. Osgood played one of his better games in net while Kari was just average. Average ain't going to cut it versus this group.

We got a couple short fights and some nice checks to round things out. Kovalchuk had some great setup plays but teammates couldn't finish. Bogosian had another strong game.

Pretty much what you expect when the best team in the league faces one of the weak sisters. Perhaps when the Wings visit Atlanta again, Thrasher fans, including myself, will have more to cheer about.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Thrashers Game Report - 03/03/09

Florida 4 - Atlanta 2

This report got a bit delayed as I attempted to follow the craziness that ensued on trade deadline day. Looking back I probably should have waited and read about the deals the next day. But I guess that's why they call us fanatics.

I went down to this game hoping to see an improved group. They've been playing better lately, showing signs they are coming together as a team. Unfortunately, I got a reminder that they still have a long way to go and road continues to be bumpy.

It started off well enough. Some nice forecheck and some decent puck movement resulted in 2-1 first period lead. There were some communication issues on defense that resulted in the goal against but Kari must take part of the blame as well.

The second period was all Panthers. The Thrashers had trouble moving the puck because they continue to have inaccurate passing. I lost count of the number of times pucks hit skates instead of sticks. The forecheck all but disappeared and defense had trouble staying in sync.

Much of the problems on defense could probably be traced to the trade of Havelid. With this trade, new pairings were introduced and you could tell some players had trouble figuring out what their new responsibilities were. Toby Enstrom was especially confused playing with Bogosian. Used to having Havelid to back him up, Toby was now filling that role and had multiple occasions were he let Florida players slip behind him. I'm hoping coach Anderson makes some adjustments because I think Enstrom is better suited to a different role. He's far too small to be the last line of defense.

After giving up another late period goal, the score was 4-1 after two periods. The Thrashers put up a little fight at the end and managed to cut it to 2 with Kovy's 35th goal. But with less than 3 minutes remaining, Peverly put the puck over the boards and received a delay of game penalty, basically ending the contest.

There weren't a lot of positives to the game but I thought Christensen (since been traded to Anaheim) and Slater (goal in first game back from injury) had pretty decent games. Bogosian and Reasoner did decent as well.

As I said, Enstrom didn't look good and a lot of the guys look a little listless including Kovalchuk. It's got to be tough knowing the season is winding down and there is nothing to play for. However, these guys are professionals and well paid. They need to be giving full effort night in and night out.

Lastly, I'm going to criticize Lehtonen a bit. Although none of the goals were entirely his fault, he did play a role in each of them. He had a couple stellar saves this game but gave up another soft goal once again. He's been playing a lot better lately but I'm very frustrated that his rebound control hasn't improved much. Poor rebounds resulted in 2 very easy goals for the Panthers. If Kari is ever going to reach the next level (I now have my doubts) he needs to swallow up those pucks and play more consistently.

I'd be remissed if I didn't mention how empty the arena was. I'm guessing less than 5000 in attendance. It's understandable but it certainly takes something out of attending a game when so little energy exists in the arena.

My last bitchfest is related to the third jerseys. In the process of drumming up additional merchandising sales, they've created a situation that prevents crowd unity. I think it's pretty intimidating to look at a sold out Calgary Saddledome and see just about every fan wearing red. The same takes place in the nation's capital. Meanwhile in Atlanta, when it's near capacity, you see blue, red, white, yellow, green and more. Looks more like a rainbow than a group supporting the same cause. Pick one color and stick to it. That being said, I do like the "blue-crew" in their "code red" outfits better.

I expect my next journey to Philip's arena to have a much different atmosphere. A soldout contest against the Stanley Cup Champion Detroit Red Wings. I'll be sitting on the glass, in the corner for this one. Definitely bringing the camera as well. I won't be the only Red Wing fan in attendance but I'll be one of the few Wing fans hoping for a Thrasher victory in OT.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Crimson Volleyball - Choo Choo City Tournament

Yesterday was Crimson's third volleyball tournament. Much like the previous two tournaments in Chattanooga, TN and Gul Shores, AL, the team didn't have much success. This time they went 2-6 finishing 4th out of 5 teams in their group.

Even though the team didn't have much success, Crimson continues to play quite well and enjoys it quite a bit. The young ladies have a lot of fun traveling and playing together. Next up is a 2 day tournament in Birmingham, AL followed by two in Atlanta.

I did take the camera this time and got some nice shots.







Piestewa Peak Hike

This hike was a bit different. My first hike without leaving the large city. This one can be found within the city of Phoenix. Plus, it was a desert landscape. I'm used to much more isolation or at least a lot of trees. This hike had neither.

One of the busiest trails in the nation, it was even busy on this late Friday morning. My sister and nephew accompanied me on this hike which was fairly short but enough of a challenge to require a couple brief stops. The terrain was quite rocky but we returned unscathed. Took us about 90 minutes to walk up and down with an nice long break at the top to take in the view.

Here's a few of the better pics: