This is going to be very brief. Those of you who know me best will understand why I do not feel about talking much about the NHL at this point in time. However, I believe it is my duty to finish these picks. We'll see if a summer without hockey brings me back to discussing the NHL.
ROUND 3 RESULTS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#3 BOSTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 6 - $30
Actual : Boston in 7 - LOSE $30
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #2 SAN JOSE
Actual : VANCOUVER in 5 - WIN $30
10-4 +$420 so far
STANLEY CUP FINALS
#1 VANCOUVER vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : Vancouver in 6 - $80
Tim Thomas will steal a couple for the Bruins but the overall skill level and depth of the Canucks will prevail.
Enjoy the games, it is going to be hard for me to watch.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3
The commitment to absorbing as much hockey as humanly possible continues. Fortunately for me and my neighbors, there is a little less of it as each round passes by. Round 2 may not have had the drama of round 1 but it certainly had its storylines.
A look back at round 2:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 4 - LOSE $65
I wasn't as surprised by Tampa's victory as much as I was by sweeping. Someone who bet that result could have made a killing and should probably have their head examined. The result says just as much about Tampa Bay as it does Washington.
Yzerman has built fundamentally sound Lightning team by surrounding some superstars with players who will fight hard every night for loose pucks and stay composed while under attack (a theme for this round). Their superstars are not exempt from doing the little things that contribute to winning hockey. Yzerman's move to acquire Roloson at a relatively cheap cost when he saw a chink in the armor is almost certainly going to earn him executive of the year honors. Is he going to get a Stanley Cup to go with his GM Olympic gold?
Washington has to seriously examine themselves once again. They lacked the composure (I told you it was a theme) to deal with goal and series deficits causing one goal to lead to two and eventually to a sweep. This is as much about leadership as it is about attitude. The defense first philosophy was the right idea for this team but it went way too far. A good coach needs to develop a system that still allows gifted players to create scoring opportunities. Back to the drawing board coach Bruce.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Actual : BOSTON in 4 - LOSE $45
Much to my surprise, Philly never found their composure in this series. They never developed any momentum and had horrible play from the defense for yet another series. Add in Boston's quick strike attack plus the stellar goaltending of Thomas and it was a disaster for the Flyers. Sure, they have their share of excuses but no matter how you look at it this is a disappointment for a team that looked so good until the All Star break. Where the go from here is a bit of a question. If Boucher comes back they might as well throw in the towel. Acquiring an experience quality backup at a low price should be the approach. Sacrificing offense to get a top-notch starter seems mighty risky. With a cheap backup they can conceivable make an adjustment at the trade deadline if that approach doesn't work. Whatever they do they cannot afford to play Bob to death so early in the process.
Boston couldn't have played much better. Their hard work paid off. However, without being seriously contested, it could hurt them in the long run. Fortunately for them, they play in the East and get to face a team who has been sitting for awhile as well.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
Actual : VANCOUVER in 6
This series played out a lot like I expected. Although Nashville was able to keep it a bit closer game to game, Vancouver's depth and Nashville's lack of scoring punch eventually took its toll. If not for the stellar play of Pekka Rinne, Nashville would have been blown out of it. Luongo held his own but rarely face serious pressure. He'll get his test next round.
Unlike the two series in the East, there is no shame in losing this one for Nashville. They finally won a series and played their hearts out against the Canucks. As always, they'll face some difficulties keeping this team together but with Trotz in the fold (please give this man the Jack Adams award) they'll be back for another chance.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
Actual : SAN JOSE in 7 - LOSE $5
The result of this series should explain why I went back and forth with my prediction beforehand. This was by far the most entertaining series of the first round. With 6 of the 7 games decided by one goal and the other iced with an empty net goal, it was the closest in NHL playoff history.
A roller coaster from the first puck drop, the series saw an ebb and flow like no other in recent memory. Both teams played excellent defense, had strong goaltending and had portions where they controlled the play on offense. Unlike the slowed down play I witnessed in the other 3 series when they went defense first, this one never slowed tempo. Great defense was happening at full speed. The hits were furious and the stars of both team shined at critical times.
The Red Wings composure, one of their stongest assests, built up over a 20 year period, allowed them to comeback from a 3-0 series deficit where the Caps and Flyers failed. For that, they can go away proud and leave this Wings fan far less disappointed.
In the end it came down to the Sharks penalty kill and the Wings inability to convert on the powerplay at critical times. The Sharks got some good bounces, especially early in the series and the Wings had injuries in game 7 that really hurt their chances but niether of those should take away from the Sharks excellent performance. It certainly has me rethinking their chances moving forward.
That ends what was probably my worst round of picks since I've been doing this. I went a miserable 1 for 4 and lost $35. That's 9-3 +$420 so far.
Now to round 3 that begins tonight..
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#3 BOSTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 6 - $30
These teams have been waiting around a LONG time. At least they are both in the same boat. I honestly think this plays into the Lighning's hands since Boston has more pressure to produce early since they'll be starting the series at home. If Tampa Bay can grab just one of the first two the series will be within their grasp. Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get their superstars more involved in the scoring though because it is unlikely the role players can keep the scoring pace up.
Boston will look to play this series much like the Philly one and its hard to argue against that approach. They'll play defense first while looking to get their defense involved on the offense whenever the Lightning present the chance. Taking advantage of those opportunities is key.
Thomas won't have to face the pressure he faced against Philly but he will have to stay focussed because the Lightning will shoot from everywhere. If they can score early like they did against Philly it could be over quick. Otherwise, I expect many tight games.
I cannot wager a large amount of money on this series because I simply cannot predict who the long wait will affect most. There are also signifcant injuries to both teams that may be a factor.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #2 SAN JOSE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $30
Much like the Wings - Sharks series of the previous round, I went back and forth on this one. I thought the Canucks under performed against Nashville while the Sharks are playing some of their best hockey of the season. I was thinking that this might just be enough to carry the Sharks through the Canucks.
However, I cannot get over the number of juicy rebounds that San Jose's Niemi gave up that the Wings failed to convert. More of those and Vancouver will convert. This series is going to come down to goaltending and I give Luongo the edge simply because he plays more technically sound. That doesn't mean Luongo can't be beaten. The Sharks just need to get to him early before he establishes any momentum/confidence. Their best chance may be game 1 where the Canucks will be a tad nervous playing before the pressure packed home crowd.
This should be another fast paced but defensively sound series, a true joy to watch. Pay particular attention to the faceoffs as the team that controls them will likely win the series. Both teams are attempting to overcome a hurdle they've stumbled with in the past. For all those pundits that are claiming the Sharks passed that test by beating the Wings, keep in mind that the Sharks did that last year to only get swept by Chicago instead of reaching the final. The Canucks have pressure of their own as the weight of all Canada is on their shoulders, as well as, the expectations from a season of winning.
Only a paltry $90 bet this round. We've got what should be two close series both entertaining in their own way. 3 of these 4 teams were among my serious contenders to make it this far based on my preseason predictions. These aren't flukes.
The Canucks are still on pace to win the cup. We'll see if they can hold this pace for the next two weeks.
Finally, the Swedes will prevail against the Fins in the World Championship final. No wager on this one. I couldn't find a local bookie who even knew this game was taking place Sunday.
A look back at round 2:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 4 - LOSE $65
I wasn't as surprised by Tampa's victory as much as I was by sweeping. Someone who bet that result could have made a killing and should probably have their head examined. The result says just as much about Tampa Bay as it does Washington.
Yzerman has built fundamentally sound Lightning team by surrounding some superstars with players who will fight hard every night for loose pucks and stay composed while under attack (a theme for this round). Their superstars are not exempt from doing the little things that contribute to winning hockey. Yzerman's move to acquire Roloson at a relatively cheap cost when he saw a chink in the armor is almost certainly going to earn him executive of the year honors. Is he going to get a Stanley Cup to go with his GM Olympic gold?
Washington has to seriously examine themselves once again. They lacked the composure (I told you it was a theme) to deal with goal and series deficits causing one goal to lead to two and eventually to a sweep. This is as much about leadership as it is about attitude. The defense first philosophy was the right idea for this team but it went way too far. A good coach needs to develop a system that still allows gifted players to create scoring opportunities. Back to the drawing board coach Bruce.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Actual : BOSTON in 4 - LOSE $45
Much to my surprise, Philly never found their composure in this series. They never developed any momentum and had horrible play from the defense for yet another series. Add in Boston's quick strike attack plus the stellar goaltending of Thomas and it was a disaster for the Flyers. Sure, they have their share of excuses but no matter how you look at it this is a disappointment for a team that looked so good until the All Star break. Where the go from here is a bit of a question. If Boucher comes back they might as well throw in the towel. Acquiring an experience quality backup at a low price should be the approach. Sacrificing offense to get a top-notch starter seems mighty risky. With a cheap backup they can conceivable make an adjustment at the trade deadline if that approach doesn't work. Whatever they do they cannot afford to play Bob to death so early in the process.
Boston couldn't have played much better. Their hard work paid off. However, without being seriously contested, it could hurt them in the long run. Fortunately for them, they play in the East and get to face a team who has been sitting for awhile as well.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
Actual : VANCOUVER in 6
This series played out a lot like I expected. Although Nashville was able to keep it a bit closer game to game, Vancouver's depth and Nashville's lack of scoring punch eventually took its toll. If not for the stellar play of Pekka Rinne, Nashville would have been blown out of it. Luongo held his own but rarely face serious pressure. He'll get his test next round.
Unlike the two series in the East, there is no shame in losing this one for Nashville. They finally won a series and played their hearts out against the Canucks. As always, they'll face some difficulties keeping this team together but with Trotz in the fold (please give this man the Jack Adams award) they'll be back for another chance.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
Actual : SAN JOSE in 7 - LOSE $5
The result of this series should explain why I went back and forth with my prediction beforehand. This was by far the most entertaining series of the first round. With 6 of the 7 games decided by one goal and the other iced with an empty net goal, it was the closest in NHL playoff history.
A roller coaster from the first puck drop, the series saw an ebb and flow like no other in recent memory. Both teams played excellent defense, had strong goaltending and had portions where they controlled the play on offense. Unlike the slowed down play I witnessed in the other 3 series when they went defense first, this one never slowed tempo. Great defense was happening at full speed. The hits were furious and the stars of both team shined at critical times.
The Red Wings composure, one of their stongest assests, built up over a 20 year period, allowed them to comeback from a 3-0 series deficit where the Caps and Flyers failed. For that, they can go away proud and leave this Wings fan far less disappointed.
In the end it came down to the Sharks penalty kill and the Wings inability to convert on the powerplay at critical times. The Sharks got some good bounces, especially early in the series and the Wings had injuries in game 7 that really hurt their chances but niether of those should take away from the Sharks excellent performance. It certainly has me rethinking their chances moving forward.
That ends what was probably my worst round of picks since I've been doing this. I went a miserable 1 for 4 and lost $35. That's 9-3 +$420 so far.
Now to round 3 that begins tonight..
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#3 BOSTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 6 - $30
These teams have been waiting around a LONG time. At least they are both in the same boat. I honestly think this plays into the Lighning's hands since Boston has more pressure to produce early since they'll be starting the series at home. If Tampa Bay can grab just one of the first two the series will be within their grasp. Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get their superstars more involved in the scoring though because it is unlikely the role players can keep the scoring pace up.
Boston will look to play this series much like the Philly one and its hard to argue against that approach. They'll play defense first while looking to get their defense involved on the offense whenever the Lightning present the chance. Taking advantage of those opportunities is key.
Thomas won't have to face the pressure he faced against Philly but he will have to stay focussed because the Lightning will shoot from everywhere. If they can score early like they did against Philly it could be over quick. Otherwise, I expect many tight games.
I cannot wager a large amount of money on this series because I simply cannot predict who the long wait will affect most. There are also signifcant injuries to both teams that may be a factor.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #2 SAN JOSE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $30
Much like the Wings - Sharks series of the previous round, I went back and forth on this one. I thought the Canucks under performed against Nashville while the Sharks are playing some of their best hockey of the season. I was thinking that this might just be enough to carry the Sharks through the Canucks.
However, I cannot get over the number of juicy rebounds that San Jose's Niemi gave up that the Wings failed to convert. More of those and Vancouver will convert. This series is going to come down to goaltending and I give Luongo the edge simply because he plays more technically sound. That doesn't mean Luongo can't be beaten. The Sharks just need to get to him early before he establishes any momentum/confidence. Their best chance may be game 1 where the Canucks will be a tad nervous playing before the pressure packed home crowd.
This should be another fast paced but defensively sound series, a true joy to watch. Pay particular attention to the faceoffs as the team that controls them will likely win the series. Both teams are attempting to overcome a hurdle they've stumbled with in the past. For all those pundits that are claiming the Sharks passed that test by beating the Wings, keep in mind that the Sharks did that last year to only get swept by Chicago instead of reaching the final. The Canucks have pressure of their own as the weight of all Canada is on their shoulders, as well as, the expectations from a season of winning.
Only a paltry $90 bet this round. We've got what should be two close series both entertaining in their own way. 3 of these 4 teams were among my serious contenders to make it this far based on my preseason predictions. These aren't flukes.
The Canucks are still on pace to win the cup. We'll see if they can hold this pace for the next two weeks.
Finally, the Swedes will prevail against the Fins in the World Championship final. No wager on this one. I couldn't find a local bookie who even knew this game was taking place Sunday.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2
No rest for the weary. Late night West coast games give way to more of the same. At least there are now less games to follow. This year I've watched even more than I did last year. I caught portions of every game and watched about 1/2 in their entirety. As I type this I'm flipping back and forth between two game sevens. I'm one sick puppy.
Before moving onto my predictions, a look back at round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
Actual : WASHINGTON in 5 - WIN $85
This series played almost exactly as expected. The series could have been a little closer if only the Rangers had a bit more offense. Washington simply had too much skill for the Rangers to handle and only Lunqvist and a quality defense keep the games fairly close. This should be a good confidence builder for Washington heading forward and reinforces the Ranger's need to find another scorer and seriously chase Richards over the summer.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Actual : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - WIN $75
Buffalo ended up making this series much tighter than I expected. There was a lot of sloppy defense in this series by the Flyers and it almost cost them a chance at the ultimate prize. When they finally buckled down in game 7 they easily controlled the game. Miller did an admireable job of keeping a depleted team in the running but in the end he wasn't enough. Philly's goaltending was even more of an adventure than anyone expected. It wasn't pretty and if they can't find some consistency moving forward they won't stand a chance. Pronger's return could be the turning point. As I noted faceoff wins are a much underappreciated stat. Turns out two of them resulted in Flyer goals in game 7.
#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Actual : BOSTON in 7 - WIN $65
Not as big as a mismatch as I expected as Boston wasn't as sound defensively as they had been down the stretch. The opportunistic Canadiens took advantage of every miscue. Boston managed to blow another early game seven lead and almost blew yet another game seven at home. They'll have to ratchet it up on both ends of the ice to compete in round 2.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 7 - WIN $25
I found this to be the least entertaining game to watch. Something about the tempo, numerous miscues and lack of history between the clubs always found me turning elsewhere. Goaltending was a mixed bag, as I expected, and the Lightning's young defense was exposed at times. Either team could have ultimately won this series. I had the hardest time picking this series and it ended up being about the most even. Had the Penguins had Crosby and Malkin, I don't expect it would have been close. Expect to hear Penguin fans bitch about it on the golf courses next week.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Actual : VANCOUVER in 7 : WIN $90
It doesn't shock me that this series went to seven games, but the route it took was unexpected. Two heavily skilled teams put on a show. It was entertaining to watch without a vested interest but I suspect it would have been a nightmare I were rooting for either club. The Canucks almost single handedly put the province of British Columbia into a decade of depression. Vancouver could have dispatched of Chicago much earlier had Luongo not had his annual meltdown or the young Chicago goalie, Crawford, not played spectacular in game 7. Vancouver comes out on top in the end and some of the lessons they learned may just propel them to the Cup but they better find a way to play more consistent in goal and on defense.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
Actual : SAN JOSE in 6 - WIN $40
The Kings ran into some bad luck and inconsistent play that simply kept them from making the series any closer. Losing a game after having a 4-0 lead was the turning point for the series as the young Kings failed to take the next step. San Jose looked unbeatable most of the time but were shaky enough in net that they had to make multiple goalie changes. Fixing that is the key to going forward.
#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Actual : DETROIT in 4 - WIN $45
OK, I feel a little more confident in the Wings after seeing this series. They totally dismantled the Coyotes in every fashion. Surprisingly, Howard ended up being the better goalie in the series and Phoenix really had no answers for the Wings depth even without Zetterberg for the whole series and Franzen for game 4. Detroit's only flaw was their penalty killing but it came up big when needed most. As I predicted, Helm and Abdelkader were significant players. Finishing this series in 4 and avoiding the extra wear and travel should be a benefit to Detroit down the road.
#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
Actual : NASHVILLE in 6 - WIN $30
I expected this to be excellent series but a bit boring to watch. I was completely wrong. This was probably the most entertaining series on the dial due to some spectacular goalies, very physical play and back and forth action. The Predators didn't play much of their slowdown style and it looked like it might cost them for awhile. In the end, it was the Ducks troubles in net that kept them from advancing. Trotz finally got a much deserved series win for the Preds and the city of Nashville.
That's 8 for 8 on picks and $455 in winnings. No, I didn't pick a lot of upsets but the ones I did pick panned out. Also, the lowest wagers I made typically ended up being the closest series. Not too bad for an "amatuer" and much better than some of those "professional" goofs on Versus. When asked to make a prediction during last night's Boston-Montreal contest, Jeremy Roenick had the intelligence to make the bold prediction "I predict someone will win". I think he rides the short bus to the rink.
On to round 2 which begins less than 24 hours after the finish of round 1.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Like Vancouver in the West, I believe Washington's first round victory will serve as a catalyst to get them through this round with relative ease. Facing a much less sound defensive squad and a weaker goaltender, they should be able to tickle the twine a bit more. But, they have to careful not to fall into old habits and remember to play defense first. Patience is the key for both teams. Tampa will need Roloson to stand on his head and find a way to steal one of the two in Washington to have any chance. It should be a fun series to watch.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Both teams narrowly got here and neither played their best hockey in round 1. Philly, in particular, looked lost at times against Buffalo but I am counting on them righting the ship and finding a way to dispatch with the less skilled Boston team. It's a good matchup for the Flyers as long as their goaltending quits giving up the easy goals. Enough with the rotating goalies! Philly shouldn't have to change their gameplan much as Boston is almost identical to Buffalo except they have more skill at every position. Boston's strength is one defense and it net and they'll need every bit of it. Playing a tight disciplined game is their best way to win. As Pronger gets healthier the Flyers should spread their wings a bit. An aggressive gameplan should get them to the next round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
I'm of the belief that Vancouver's first round will serve as a catalyst and this series will end up being more lopsided than their first. Nashville is going to have their hands full trying to keep up with the skill level of the Nucks. The wildcard, once again, is in net. If Nashville can somehow get to Luongo early it can be an entirely different series. Nashville cannot duplicate Chicago's path. They don't have the tools to rebound from a big deficit. The Preds must get back to playing a slower tempo, defense oriented game in hopes of frustrating the Canucks. Rinne has to play like a MVP to have any chance.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
I'm torn on this one and went back and forth with my prediction. That's why my confidence bet is so pathetically low. For the moment my confidence is a bit higher with Detroit. It all comes down to stealing one of the first two on the road in San Jose. Frankly, I think playing the first two on the road may work in Detroit's favor. Since they have been resting so long, using a game to find their legs isn't a problem. Their road record has been spectacular and they tend to play more relaxed away from the Joe. While San Jose may have the advantage up front, Detroit has the better defense. The diffence could be in goal and Howard has played better than San Jose's duo. Much will be made about last year's series but that was much closer than the 4-0 sweep indicated with each contest essentially a one goal game. I expect to see one or two overtime games. I just hope they don't come in one of those 10:30PM EDT starts. This round the Wings will need all their weapons so keeping Zetterberg and Franzen on the ice is key. Both teams need to stay out of the penalty box.
That's a total of $195 bet.
Since my previous Cup finals participants are still alive, I won't be changing anything. But I better see improvement this round or my Eastern Conference pick (Flyers) will change one way (forced by elimination) or another (loss of confidence).
Before moving onto my predictions, a look back at round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
Actual : WASHINGTON in 5 - WIN $85
This series played almost exactly as expected. The series could have been a little closer if only the Rangers had a bit more offense. Washington simply had too much skill for the Rangers to handle and only Lunqvist and a quality defense keep the games fairly close. This should be a good confidence builder for Washington heading forward and reinforces the Ranger's need to find another scorer and seriously chase Richards over the summer.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Actual : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - WIN $75
Buffalo ended up making this series much tighter than I expected. There was a lot of sloppy defense in this series by the Flyers and it almost cost them a chance at the ultimate prize. When they finally buckled down in game 7 they easily controlled the game. Miller did an admireable job of keeping a depleted team in the running but in the end he wasn't enough. Philly's goaltending was even more of an adventure than anyone expected. It wasn't pretty and if they can't find some consistency moving forward they won't stand a chance. Pronger's return could be the turning point. As I noted faceoff wins are a much underappreciated stat. Turns out two of them resulted in Flyer goals in game 7.
#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Actual : BOSTON in 7 - WIN $65
Not as big as a mismatch as I expected as Boston wasn't as sound defensively as they had been down the stretch. The opportunistic Canadiens took advantage of every miscue. Boston managed to blow another early game seven lead and almost blew yet another game seven at home. They'll have to ratchet it up on both ends of the ice to compete in round 2.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
Actual : TAMPA BAY in 7 - WIN $25
I found this to be the least entertaining game to watch. Something about the tempo, numerous miscues and lack of history between the clubs always found me turning elsewhere. Goaltending was a mixed bag, as I expected, and the Lightning's young defense was exposed at times. Either team could have ultimately won this series. I had the hardest time picking this series and it ended up being about the most even. Had the Penguins had Crosby and Malkin, I don't expect it would have been close. Expect to hear Penguin fans bitch about it on the golf courses next week.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Actual : VANCOUVER in 7 : WIN $90
It doesn't shock me that this series went to seven games, but the route it took was unexpected. Two heavily skilled teams put on a show. It was entertaining to watch without a vested interest but I suspect it would have been a nightmare I were rooting for either club. The Canucks almost single handedly put the province of British Columbia into a decade of depression. Vancouver could have dispatched of Chicago much earlier had Luongo not had his annual meltdown or the young Chicago goalie, Crawford, not played spectacular in game 7. Vancouver comes out on top in the end and some of the lessons they learned may just propel them to the Cup but they better find a way to play more consistent in goal and on defense.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
Actual : SAN JOSE in 6 - WIN $40
The Kings ran into some bad luck and inconsistent play that simply kept them from making the series any closer. Losing a game after having a 4-0 lead was the turning point for the series as the young Kings failed to take the next step. San Jose looked unbeatable most of the time but were shaky enough in net that they had to make multiple goalie changes. Fixing that is the key to going forward.
#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Actual : DETROIT in 4 - WIN $45
OK, I feel a little more confident in the Wings after seeing this series. They totally dismantled the Coyotes in every fashion. Surprisingly, Howard ended up being the better goalie in the series and Phoenix really had no answers for the Wings depth even without Zetterberg for the whole series and Franzen for game 4. Detroit's only flaw was their penalty killing but it came up big when needed most. As I predicted, Helm and Abdelkader were significant players. Finishing this series in 4 and avoiding the extra wear and travel should be a benefit to Detroit down the road.
#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
Actual : NASHVILLE in 6 - WIN $30
I expected this to be excellent series but a bit boring to watch. I was completely wrong. This was probably the most entertaining series on the dial due to some spectacular goalies, very physical play and back and forth action. The Predators didn't play much of their slowdown style and it looked like it might cost them for awhile. In the end, it was the Ducks troubles in net that kept them from advancing. Trotz finally got a much deserved series win for the Preds and the city of Nashville.
That's 8 for 8 on picks and $455 in winnings. No, I didn't pick a lot of upsets but the ones I did pick panned out. Also, the lowest wagers I made typically ended up being the closest series. Not too bad for an "amatuer" and much better than some of those "professional" goofs on Versus. When asked to make a prediction during last night's Boston-Montreal contest, Jeremy Roenick had the intelligence to make the bold prediction "I predict someone will win". I think he rides the short bus to the rink.
On to round 2 which begins less than 24 hours after the finish of round 1.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $65
Like Vancouver in the West, I believe Washington's first round victory will serve as a catalyst to get them through this round with relative ease. Facing a much less sound defensive squad and a weaker goaltender, they should be able to tickle the twine a bit more. But, they have to careful not to fall into old habits and remember to play defense first. Patience is the key for both teams. Tampa will need Roloson to stand on his head and find a way to steal one of the two in Washington to have any chance. It should be a fun series to watch.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #3 BOSTON
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $45
Both teams narrowly got here and neither played their best hockey in round 1. Philly, in particular, looked lost at times against Buffalo but I am counting on them righting the ship and finding a way to dispatch with the less skilled Boston team. It's a good matchup for the Flyers as long as their goaltending quits giving up the easy goals. Enough with the rotating goalies! Philly shouldn't have to change their gameplan much as Boston is almost identical to Buffalo except they have more skill at every position. Boston's strength is one defense and it net and they'll need every bit of it. Playing a tight disciplined game is their best way to win. As Pronger gets healthier the Flyers should spread their wings a bit. An aggressive gameplan should get them to the next round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 5 - $80
I'm of the belief that Vancouver's first round will serve as a catalyst and this series will end up being more lopsided than their first. Nashville is going to have their hands full trying to keep up with the skill level of the Nucks. The wildcard, once again, is in net. If Nashville can somehow get to Luongo early it can be an entirely different series. Nashville cannot duplicate Chicago's path. They don't have the tools to rebound from a big deficit. The Preds must get back to playing a slower tempo, defense oriented game in hopes of frustrating the Canucks. Rinne has to play like a MVP to have any chance.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #3 DETROIT
Prediction : DETROIT in 7 - $5
I'm torn on this one and went back and forth with my prediction. That's why my confidence bet is so pathetically low. For the moment my confidence is a bit higher with Detroit. It all comes down to stealing one of the first two on the road in San Jose. Frankly, I think playing the first two on the road may work in Detroit's favor. Since they have been resting so long, using a game to find their legs isn't a problem. Their road record has been spectacular and they tend to play more relaxed away from the Joe. While San Jose may have the advantage up front, Detroit has the better defense. The diffence could be in goal and Howard has played better than San Jose's duo. Much will be made about last year's series but that was much closer than the 4-0 sweep indicated with each contest essentially a one goal game. I expect to see one or two overtime games. I just hope they don't come in one of those 10:30PM EDT starts. This round the Wings will need all their weapons so keeping Zetterberg and Franzen on the ice is key. Both teams need to stay out of the penalty box.
That's a total of $195 bet.
Since my previous Cup finals participants are still alive, I won't be changing anything. But I better see improvement this round or my Eastern Conference pick (Flyers) will change one way (forced by elimination) or another (loss of confidence).
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1
There are some really nice matchups in the first round and I have a bad feeling my picks won't match up to previous years. A lot of series could easily go either way with just a single goal or a big save. I don't expect any sweeps and maybe not even a 5 game series.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
I've seen more than a few people picking this series as an upset. I just don't envision that happening. After a year of stewing from the major upset at the hands of the Canadiens, the Capitals have got to be determined not to let that happen again. They spent the better part of the season with working on more defensive philosophy. While this resulted in less goals for Ovie and bunch, they finally found a way to win without scoring 4 goals a game. This is precisely what it takes to win in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Rangers are forced to play this style because they have so little offense. Their team is built around hard work and strong goaltending. But now that Callahan is out, they simply don't have the offense it'll take to win. Lunqvist may steal a game or two but I just don't see the Rangers coming out on top.
The only way the Rangers win is to attack the young Cap goalies. Get a lot of traffic in front and throw a lot of pucks at the net. Hope the playoff jitters get to the goalie(s). Get an early lead and make the Caps start doubting themselves. Knock the Caps out this time and they may never recover.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Despite that late season swoon, I still think the Flyers have the perfect makeup for another long playoff run. I was one of the few people who said it last year and I think they are now an even stronger team. But it isn't going to be easy and Buffalo won't go down without a fight.
I think we'll finally see the real Flyers step back up and take control of this series with offense. Buffalo can score goals in spurts but I don't think they can match the Flyers at both ends of the ice or contain their powerplay. Buffalo's best chance is in goal. Miller can be a differance maker that Philly wishes it had. On the surface the Flyers goaltending trio looks better than the tandem they had last year but their starter is not playoff tested. Only time will tell.
#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Of all the series, this is the one I think is the most lopsided. Boston is better built to be successful in the playoffs while Montreal had just enough tools to get there. I wouldn't read too much into Montreal early season success against Boston or their success in the playoffs last year.
Boston will beat Montreal with their physical game. They'll wear down the smaller faster Canadiens, get plenty of "garbage" goals and use strong goaltending to keep Montreal in check.
The first game in Montreal is worth a looksee as Chara returns to the scene of the crime. The fans will be rabid beyond their normal craziness. Montreal's best chance is having Price become superhuman and hoping Boston gets undisciplined.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
I want to pick at least one upset in the East so I'll pick this one. While the Penguins have surprised me with their play without their 2 best players, I think the tank finally runs dry before Crosby has a chance to lace them up.
I'm concerned with lack experience among some of the Tampa players and coaches but there are just enough veterans around to make up for it. We could see some high scoring affairs in the these games if Tampa Bay gets to play their way. It'll be up to the Penguins to slow the game down and frustrate the Lightning.
Goaltending is the enigma in this series. Each team has a tender who can dominate but they are both highly inconsistent. The team that finds consistency in net will probably come out on top.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Surely the Canucks would have liked a different opponent in round one. To see the team that knocked them out of contention the last two years is a little disturbing. But I have a feeling this just might be the catalyst that propels them to a Cup win.
This isn't last year's Hawks. Gone is a lot of depth and grit that made this team a playoff success. While there is still plenty of offensive punch, solid defense and decent goaltending, they are going to have trouble matching up with Vancouver's deep squad over the course of a long series.
The key in this series in Luongo. He's been notorious for playoff flops in the past and he desperately needs to win this series to exorcise those demons. Expectations are a mile high in Vancouver and most of the pressure falls on Luongo. Perhaps winning the gold put those troubles behind him but if the Hawks somehow take a series lead, doubts will creep up.
Vancouver is 1st or 2nd in just about every offensive and defensive category. The one I find most amazing is their record when scoring first. I can't find the exact number but it was something close to 46-2. Think about that for a minute.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
This was a tough series for me to predict. One side of me wants to think the Sharks will easily dispatch the Kings because of the loss of Kopitar/Williams, two significant offensive pieces. However, the Kings have been resiliant in their absence and I think they'll rise to the occassion again. However, I think this particular task is just too much to handle without being closer to 100%.
The Sharks should have got the monkey off their back a bit by getting to the conference finals last year. But it's time to start again and find a way to take those last steps towards a championship. It's the only thing that'll be considered a success. A loss at home or a failure to get their offense going will make them nervous.
The Kings best chance is to keep the games close and hope their goalie can stand on his head. This should be a fun series to watch if you can tolerate nights with little sleep.
#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Never have I felt less confident about a Detroit team heading into the playoffs. Add Zetterberg's knee tweak to that and I'm almost tempted to pick Phoenix to win the series. It's the consistency that has been most maddening.
Somehow, someway, they always seem to rise to the occassion when it matters the most so I am expecting to see less mistakes out of the Wings now that the playoffs have started. There are still some nagging issues including a lack of secondary scoring, a weak 3rd defensive pair and a scary situation in net.
Whoever scores the early goals will likely control the series. Low scoring contests play into the Coyotes hands. Excellent coaches on both benches. The Wings have to find a way to be aggressive from the get go and force the Coyotes to take some penalties because the powerplay of Detroit vs the penalty kill of Phoenix is a huge mismatch in Detroit's favor. It's here I think they'll take the series.
Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best hope. The Wings have fallen to a shutdown goalie too many times to list and Bryz is among the best.
Detroit has been less than stellar at home since the beginning of the year and terrific on the road. They'll need to do better at home to advance.
Key players to watch for Detroit are Abdelkader and Helm. They've been here before and played important, limited roles. They've both expanded their responsibilities this season and should be key factors in how the series unfolds. Both play an aggressive, speedy style and have just begun to find their scoring touch.
#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
My "upset" for the West. The Ducks have played tremendously for the last two months and everyone seems to be focussed on that. Meanwhile, Nashville has played almost as well. I know the Predators have never won a single playoff series but I think now is the time.
This bound to be physical series. The Ducks like to play an agressive style and the Preds are a very disciplined, defense first team. With quality goaltending on both sides I expect a lot of low scoring affairs and probably some OT contests.
The Ducks will be relying a lot on their top line to get it done but the Preds counter with two defensemen as good as any pair in the game. Making sure he gets that pair on the ice when Getzlaf, Perry and company are out there will be job #1 for coach Trotz. Fortunately, that is something he can handle.
I think this series comes down to adjustments and Trotz is great at keeping a series close. Keep Rinne playing like he has all season in net and the Ducks can return to their pond early.
A big factor in this series could be the health of the Ducks goalies. They've got three in tow but all have one form of an ailment. They are all decent but it isn't a position you want to worry about heading into what should be a very close series.
That's $455 wagered on this round.
Before the season started I picked Vancouver over Pittsburgh in the finals. I'll stick by the Canucks but I've got to count the Penguins out due to the loss of Crosby and Malkin. Vancouver has been the most consistent team from beginning to end and they have all the pieces to do it this year.
Picking the East winner is a huge challenge. None of them have played consistently and all of them have weaknesses that could easily see them knocked out in the first round. While I'd like to pick Boston, I'm not sure a second round matchup with Philly is in their favor. I'd lean towards Washington but have sneaking feeling they may resort to old form if they fall behind. That leaves Philly. If they can just get beyond round 1 and get a healthy Pronger back, things may align for them once again.
However, Philly's luck will run out in the final again, unless they are fortunate enough to meet a team other than the Canucks.
So, that's Vancouver over Philly in the final. Pick any Sedin as your Conn Smyth winner. I can't tell them apart.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 NEW YORK RANGERS
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $85
I've seen more than a few people picking this series as an upset. I just don't envision that happening. After a year of stewing from the major upset at the hands of the Canadiens, the Capitals have got to be determined not to let that happen again. They spent the better part of the season with working on more defensive philosophy. While this resulted in less goals for Ovie and bunch, they finally found a way to win without scoring 4 goals a game. This is precisely what it takes to win in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Rangers are forced to play this style because they have so little offense. Their team is built around hard work and strong goaltending. But now that Callahan is out, they simply don't have the offense it'll take to win. Lunqvist may steal a game or two but I just don't see the Rangers coming out on top.
The only way the Rangers win is to attack the young Cap goalies. Get a lot of traffic in front and throw a lot of pucks at the net. Hope the playoff jitters get to the goalie(s). Get an early lead and make the Caps start doubting themselves. Knock the Caps out this time and they may never recover.
#2 PHILADELPHIA vs #7 BUFFALO
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 6 - $75
Despite that late season swoon, I still think the Flyers have the perfect makeup for another long playoff run. I was one of the few people who said it last year and I think they are now an even stronger team. But it isn't going to be easy and Buffalo won't go down without a fight.
I think we'll finally see the real Flyers step back up and take control of this series with offense. Buffalo can score goals in spurts but I don't think they can match the Flyers at both ends of the ice or contain their powerplay. Buffalo's best chance is in goal. Miller can be a differance maker that Philly wishes it had. On the surface the Flyers goaltending trio looks better than the tandem they had last year but their starter is not playoff tested. Only time will tell.
#3 BOSTON vs #6 MONTREAL
Prediction : BOSTON in 6 - $65
Of all the series, this is the one I think is the most lopsided. Boston is better built to be successful in the playoffs while Montreal had just enough tools to get there. I wouldn't read too much into Montreal early season success against Boston or their success in the playoffs last year.
Boston will beat Montreal with their physical game. They'll wear down the smaller faster Canadiens, get plenty of "garbage" goals and use strong goaltending to keep Montreal in check.
The first game in Montreal is worth a looksee as Chara returns to the scene of the crime. The fans will be rabid beyond their normal craziness. Montreal's best chance is having Price become superhuman and hoping Boston gets undisciplined.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 TAMPA BAY
Prediction : TAMPA BAY in 7 - $25
I want to pick at least one upset in the East so I'll pick this one. While the Penguins have surprised me with their play without their 2 best players, I think the tank finally runs dry before Crosby has a chance to lace them up.
I'm concerned with lack experience among some of the Tampa players and coaches but there are just enough veterans around to make up for it. We could see some high scoring affairs in the these games if Tampa Bay gets to play their way. It'll be up to the Penguins to slow the game down and frustrate the Lightning.
Goaltending is the enigma in this series. Each team has a tender who can dominate but they are both highly inconsistent. The team that finds consistency in net will probably come out on top.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 VANCOUVER vs #8 CHICAGO
Prediction : VANCOUVER in 6 - $90
Surely the Canucks would have liked a different opponent in round one. To see the team that knocked them out of contention the last two years is a little disturbing. But I have a feeling this just might be the catalyst that propels them to a Cup win.
This isn't last year's Hawks. Gone is a lot of depth and grit that made this team a playoff success. While there is still plenty of offensive punch, solid defense and decent goaltending, they are going to have trouble matching up with Vancouver's deep squad over the course of a long series.
The key in this series in Luongo. He's been notorious for playoff flops in the past and he desperately needs to win this series to exorcise those demons. Expectations are a mile high in Vancouver and most of the pressure falls on Luongo. Perhaps winning the gold put those troubles behind him but if the Hawks somehow take a series lead, doubts will creep up.
Vancouver is 1st or 2nd in just about every offensive and defensive category. The one I find most amazing is their record when scoring first. I can't find the exact number but it was something close to 46-2. Think about that for a minute.
#2 SAN JOSE vs #7 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 7 - $40
This was a tough series for me to predict. One side of me wants to think the Sharks will easily dispatch the Kings because of the loss of Kopitar/Williams, two significant offensive pieces. However, the Kings have been resiliant in their absence and I think they'll rise to the occassion again. However, I think this particular task is just too much to handle without being closer to 100%.
The Sharks should have got the monkey off their back a bit by getting to the conference finals last year. But it's time to start again and find a way to take those last steps towards a championship. It's the only thing that'll be considered a success. A loss at home or a failure to get their offense going will make them nervous.
The Kings best chance is to keep the games close and hope their goalie can stand on his head. This should be a fun series to watch if you can tolerate nights with little sleep.
#3 DETROIT vs #6 PHOENIX
Prediction : DETROIT in 6 - $45
Never have I felt less confident about a Detroit team heading into the playoffs. Add Zetterberg's knee tweak to that and I'm almost tempted to pick Phoenix to win the series. It's the consistency that has been most maddening.
Somehow, someway, they always seem to rise to the occassion when it matters the most so I am expecting to see less mistakes out of the Wings now that the playoffs have started. There are still some nagging issues including a lack of secondary scoring, a weak 3rd defensive pair and a scary situation in net.
Whoever scores the early goals will likely control the series. Low scoring contests play into the Coyotes hands. Excellent coaches on both benches. The Wings have to find a way to be aggressive from the get go and force the Coyotes to take some penalties because the powerplay of Detroit vs the penalty kill of Phoenix is a huge mismatch in Detroit's favor. It's here I think they'll take the series.
Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best hope. The Wings have fallen to a shutdown goalie too many times to list and Bryz is among the best.
Detroit has been less than stellar at home since the beginning of the year and terrific on the road. They'll need to do better at home to advance.
Key players to watch for Detroit are Abdelkader and Helm. They've been here before and played important, limited roles. They've both expanded their responsibilities this season and should be key factors in how the series unfolds. Both play an aggressive, speedy style and have just begun to find their scoring touch.
#4 ANAHEIM vs #5 NASHVILLE
Prediction : NASHVILLE in 7 - $30
My "upset" for the West. The Ducks have played tremendously for the last two months and everyone seems to be focussed on that. Meanwhile, Nashville has played almost as well. I know the Predators have never won a single playoff series but I think now is the time.
This bound to be physical series. The Ducks like to play an agressive style and the Preds are a very disciplined, defense first team. With quality goaltending on both sides I expect a lot of low scoring affairs and probably some OT contests.
The Ducks will be relying a lot on their top line to get it done but the Preds counter with two defensemen as good as any pair in the game. Making sure he gets that pair on the ice when Getzlaf, Perry and company are out there will be job #1 for coach Trotz. Fortunately, that is something he can handle.
I think this series comes down to adjustments and Trotz is great at keeping a series close. Keep Rinne playing like he has all season in net and the Ducks can return to their pond early.
A big factor in this series could be the health of the Ducks goalies. They've got three in tow but all have one form of an ailment. They are all decent but it isn't a position you want to worry about heading into what should be a very close series.
That's $455 wagered on this round.
Before the season started I picked Vancouver over Pittsburgh in the finals. I'll stick by the Canucks but I've got to count the Penguins out due to the loss of Crosby and Malkin. Vancouver has been the most consistent team from beginning to end and they have all the pieces to do it this year.
Picking the East winner is a huge challenge. None of them have played consistently and all of them have weaknesses that could easily see them knocked out in the first round. While I'd like to pick Boston, I'm not sure a second round matchup with Philly is in their favor. I'd lean towards Washington but have sneaking feeling they may resort to old form if they fall behind. That leaves Philly. If they can just get beyond round 1 and get a healthy Pronger back, things may align for them once again.
However, Philly's luck will run out in the final again, unless they are fortunate enough to meet a team other than the Canucks.
So, that's Vancouver over Philly in the final. Pick any Sedin as your Conn Smyth winner. I can't tell them apart.
NHL Playoff Predictions - A Prequel
It's that time of the year again. No more sleep filled nights. No more spring weekends outside. Instead I get to endure West coast games starting at 10:30PM almost every weeknight and being holed up in my basement watching afternoon tilts on the weekends. But I do this by choice because there isn't much better than NHL playoff hockey. I would have preferred watching it firsthand, right here in Atlanta, but once again that hope is left for "next season".
Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared. It seems like ages ago and only yesterday at the same time. My predictions were very accurate picking 13 of 16 playoff teams and 5 of 6 division winners. Most of my observations were accurate as well. About the only mistakes I made were with Anaheim, the New York Rangers and Ottawa. Cory Perry pushed the Ducks into the mix, rapid development of some young Rangers put them a year ahead of schedule and Ottawa sell-off sent them crashing downward.
Honestly, it wasn't tough to predict that there would be a dogfight for the bottom playoff seedings. To me the biggest surprise of the season had to be how much the Blackhawks struggled. I knew they'd take a step back but I never envisioned them struggling to make the playoffs. Considering the key injuries the Penguins faced, I was shocked they were battling for the division until the final weekend.
An 82 game season usually results in the best teams making the playoffs and it's pretty hard to argue that any quality teams were left out. In the end, Dallas and Atlanta just weren't as good as they started, Toronto wasn't ready, Washington was a stronger team than Tampa and Vancouver was the class of the league. But that is the regular season. The playoffs are a different story. Look no further than the Flyers, Caps and Canadien teams of last year to see how different the two seasons can be. Players must raise their play to the next level and each mistake is magnified. Extended scoring slumps or simply injuries can mean the difference between playing on the ice or on the golf course when the calender turns to May.
My preseason prediction for the eventual cup winner, Vancouver, doesn't look too bad either. They appear to have all the key pieces in place to grab the coveted prize. But sometimes, those lofty expectations give way to simple bad luck. In an attempt to avoid repetition in my upcoming predictions, here are some of the keys I think ANY successful playoff team must have to win the big prize:
Before making predictions, it is worth looking back at how my regular season predictions fared. It seems like ages ago and only yesterday at the same time. My predictions were very accurate picking 13 of 16 playoff teams and 5 of 6 division winners. Most of my observations were accurate as well. About the only mistakes I made were with Anaheim, the New York Rangers and Ottawa. Cory Perry pushed the Ducks into the mix, rapid development of some young Rangers put them a year ahead of schedule and Ottawa sell-off sent them crashing downward.
Honestly, it wasn't tough to predict that there would be a dogfight for the bottom playoff seedings. To me the biggest surprise of the season had to be how much the Blackhawks struggled. I knew they'd take a step back but I never envisioned them struggling to make the playoffs. Considering the key injuries the Penguins faced, I was shocked they were battling for the division until the final weekend.
An 82 game season usually results in the best teams making the playoffs and it's pretty hard to argue that any quality teams were left out. In the end, Dallas and Atlanta just weren't as good as they started, Toronto wasn't ready, Washington was a stronger team than Tampa and Vancouver was the class of the league. But that is the regular season. The playoffs are a different story. Look no further than the Flyers, Caps and Canadien teams of last year to see how different the two seasons can be. Players must raise their play to the next level and each mistake is magnified. Extended scoring slumps or simply injuries can mean the difference between playing on the ice or on the golf course when the calender turns to May.
My preseason prediction for the eventual cup winner, Vancouver, doesn't look too bad either. They appear to have all the key pieces in place to grab the coveted prize. But sometimes, those lofty expectations give way to simple bad luck. In an attempt to avoid repetition in my upcoming predictions, here are some of the keys I think ANY successful playoff team must have to win the big prize:
- Faceoffs - The most underrated statistic in all of professional hockey. It sets the tone for the offense and allows the defense to get our of their own zone. A team that can dominate in the circles can set the pace of a game. Vancouver, San Jose and Detroit are leaders in this facet with New York and Pittsburgh among the worst.
- Discipline - There is a difference between a good penalty and a bad penalty and the bad ones always seem to be magnified in the playoffs. Detroit, Chicago and Phoenix are among the least penalized while Pittsburgh and Anaheim were among the most penalized.
- Goaltending - Goaltending can steal a series all alone and there are plenty of candidates capable of doing this. The teams that don't have one of these goaltenders need to be especially worried. That means Washington, Detroit, Philly have to find ways to score because they won't feel comfortable with one goal leads. Can outstanding goaltending in the regular season in Nashville carry over to the playoffs?
- Grinders - Playoffs are rarely the time where superstars dictate the results. While they may be the big point producers, it is the contributions of the 3rd & 4th line players that elevate the entire team. If a team has a weekness on the 3rd or 4th line, it'll be exposed.
- Penalty Killing - Mistakes will happen but the best teams can handle the pressure. This is no place for rookies, prima donas, or chance takers. The little things like chipping the puck out and making sure you get it deep for a line change are huge. Pittsburgh, Washington and Vancouver had the best penalty killing units in the regular season. Both Phoenix and San Jose had miserable units.
- Coaching - Adjustments need to be made from game to game and from period to period. A coach has to know when to yank a goalie and how to rally the troops. The Penguin's Bylsma did a fantastic job in the regular season but these playoffs are chock full of pedigreed coaches. It's the inexperienced one in Tampa that faces the biggest challenge.
- Experience - This comes into play in every game but where it tends to count the most is when the team faces some adversity. Experience keeps a team/player focussed. It allows them to put a bad goal or a bad shift behind him. San Jose, Philly, Chicago and Montreal gained valuable experience last year. Detroit and Pittsburgh have it in bunches. At the opposite end of the spectrum New York, Tampa Bay, Los Angeles and Phoenix don't have a hell of lot. Washington and Boston may actually be fighting against their previous experience.
- Injuries - No one can predict which team will be affected and few teams are completely healthy at this point. Especially troubling has to be the unknown status of Crosby in Pittsburgh, Zetterberg's "lower body injury" in Detroit, Pronger in Philly, Kopitar/Williams in L.A., Callahan in N.Y. and the banged up defense in Vancouver. How quickly the players return, plus how the teams responds in the absence, will go a long way to determining the eventual champion.
I'm sure I could come up with more but that's enough to chew on. Now it's time to get cracking on the next blog post containing the actual predictions.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
Thrashers Game Report - 10/08/10
Atlanta 4 - Washington 2
If any game was worthy of a first-hand observation report, this one was.
It was great to be back at Philip's Arena for the first non-exhibition hockey since mid-April. I was excited to witness a real game from my new roost. As expected, for an opening game against on of the better teams in hockey, the crowd was fairly large. However, even with a couple thousand seats now unavailable behind curtains, it appeared to be a little less than a sellout. I can't really blame those for not coming. I just hope the team can convince a few of those who are on the fence to come on down.
Good electricity from the extended introductions and good play by the Thrashers early quickly turned solemn and silent. Atlanta goalie, Andre Pavelec, collapse in front of his crease just before a faceoff was to occur at the other end. Team doctors and medical staff quickly got to him but he lay motionless for the better part of 15 minutes while doctors examined him. I couldn't help but think of the scene just a few seasons ago when the Red Wing's Jiri Fischer had to have his heart restarted on the ice. The good news was I noticed they were not performing CPR or trying to ventilate him. However, he never moved. After getting him strapped on a board he was wheeled off the ice on a stretcher. Plenty of well-wishing cheers but still no movement.
As fans we were left wondering what had happened. Nobody in our section had actually seen him fall because the action was at the other end. Thankfully, through the links of cell phones, text messages and the internet we got some more information. Pavelec had collapsed and was indeed unconscious when he left the building. He did regain consciousness at the hospital and appeared to be ok. As of this writing, he is still in the hospital with a concussion (likely from the fall) and is under observation.
I thought there might be discussion of postponing the game (they did so in the Wing's contest) but likelihood of that seem remote since it was opening night. Action started up again after 20 minutes. Players and coaches had brief meetings and Mason went in to replace Pavelec in net.
I almost expected this tragedy to take something away from the Thrashers and for the next couple of minutes they were a bit out of sorts. They committed one of their only mistakes of the night allowing the Capitals to put a pretty tic-tac-toe shot past Mason, the first shot he faced.
However, it wasn't long until the Thrashers were back to dominating the Capitals once again. They had a forecheck and offensive cycling like I've rarely seen in Atlanta (at least for the home team). On the defensive end they were in great position and getting the puck up the ice quick. Forwards and d-men were doing a great job of keeping the puck in the Caps zone. Finally, they were rewarded for their hard work when Kane scored the first goal of the season! This fan and many others finally could stand up and cheer again.
But the Thrashers didn't stop there. The almost got another one on some good net front presence but it was waved no goal as the refs lost sight of the puck. Ladd scored one on a nice deflection from the point. More pressure in front caused a Cap to attempt to cover the puck inside the crease which a ref actually caught! A penalty shot was awarded. Kane converted the shot and if he hadn't already turned the 14,000 people into fans with his Cooke KO or his first goal, this one surely did. 3-1!
The third period started with the Thrashers still controlling play but a defensemen got caught up ice. A quick turnover led to a fairly easy 2 on 1 goal for the Caps. Having scene this scenario far too often over the years and knowing the talent of the Caps, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach with only a one goal lead. Fortunately, the Thrashers continued to play extremely well and there weren't many good Capital shots. A icing situation forced by the Thrashers forecheck resulted in a quick goal off a faceoff by Modin. The Thrashers played great defense down the stretch including the last 1:20 when the Caps pulled their goalie.
It was an amazing performance under some extreme circumstances. They way the team responded showed quite a bit about the players on the roster and the coaches behind the bench. While it must have been hard for Mason to come into that situation, he handled it fairly well. None of the goals could be blamed on him. I think he can play better in terms of rebound control but he came up big when needed to. He had once save on Ovechkin that had Alex shaking his head in disbelief.
Normally, I'd agree with the media and pick Kane as the star of the game but in this contest it has to go to the medical staff, specialists and EMTs. I cannot believe how quick they responded to the situation.
Kane was a monster all night long. Not only the strongest puck handler, but he also delivered the biggest hits. At the beginning of the game I was thinking I should revise my prediction of 30G/70PTs down a bit (25/65). Maybe now I should RAISE them.
The former Blackhawks also played a big role. Not only did Ladd get on the board but Byfuglien was probably their best defenseman. Sopel was good at blocking shots (the team blocked a ton) and all made their physical presence know.
I was a bit shocked to see the rookie, Burmistov, playing on the penalty kill in his first NHL game. That's almost unheard of. Frankly, he did a very good job. He was also a force on the offensive end. He gets a bit over matched by size from time to time but has some speed, nice hands and some nifty moves.
They outplayed the Caps by a large margin, got more shots, more hits, more shot blocks and won more faceoffs. Those are categories the Thrashers rarely win, especially against teams like the Caps.
I don't want to get too excited because the Thrashers have looked good for a game or two before. However, I saw all the elements that were advertised to us, by the coaches, all offseason. A more physical, fore-checking team with an active yet responsible defense. Solid goaltending and good number of guys with good puck skills. This was no cupcake they beat. The Capitals wanted to come out strong after their lackluster playoff showing. It's a long season ahead but the first step was a mighty nice one.
If any game was worthy of a first-hand observation report, this one was.
It was great to be back at Philip's Arena for the first non-exhibition hockey since mid-April. I was excited to witness a real game from my new roost. As expected, for an opening game against on of the better teams in hockey, the crowd was fairly large. However, even with a couple thousand seats now unavailable behind curtains, it appeared to be a little less than a sellout. I can't really blame those for not coming. I just hope the team can convince a few of those who are on the fence to come on down.
Good electricity from the extended introductions and good play by the Thrashers early quickly turned solemn and silent. Atlanta goalie, Andre Pavelec, collapse in front of his crease just before a faceoff was to occur at the other end. Team doctors and medical staff quickly got to him but he lay motionless for the better part of 15 minutes while doctors examined him. I couldn't help but think of the scene just a few seasons ago when the Red Wing's Jiri Fischer had to have his heart restarted on the ice. The good news was I noticed they were not performing CPR or trying to ventilate him. However, he never moved. After getting him strapped on a board he was wheeled off the ice on a stretcher. Plenty of well-wishing cheers but still no movement.
As fans we were left wondering what had happened. Nobody in our section had actually seen him fall because the action was at the other end. Thankfully, through the links of cell phones, text messages and the internet we got some more information. Pavelec had collapsed and was indeed unconscious when he left the building. He did regain consciousness at the hospital and appeared to be ok. As of this writing, he is still in the hospital with a concussion (likely from the fall) and is under observation.
I thought there might be discussion of postponing the game (they did so in the Wing's contest) but likelihood of that seem remote since it was opening night. Action started up again after 20 minutes. Players and coaches had brief meetings and Mason went in to replace Pavelec in net.
I almost expected this tragedy to take something away from the Thrashers and for the next couple of minutes they were a bit out of sorts. They committed one of their only mistakes of the night allowing the Capitals to put a pretty tic-tac-toe shot past Mason, the first shot he faced.
However, it wasn't long until the Thrashers were back to dominating the Capitals once again. They had a forecheck and offensive cycling like I've rarely seen in Atlanta (at least for the home team). On the defensive end they were in great position and getting the puck up the ice quick. Forwards and d-men were doing a great job of keeping the puck in the Caps zone. Finally, they were rewarded for their hard work when Kane scored the first goal of the season! This fan and many others finally could stand up and cheer again.
But the Thrashers didn't stop there. The almost got another one on some good net front presence but it was waved no goal as the refs lost sight of the puck. Ladd scored one on a nice deflection from the point. More pressure in front caused a Cap to attempt to cover the puck inside the crease which a ref actually caught! A penalty shot was awarded. Kane converted the shot and if he hadn't already turned the 14,000 people into fans with his Cooke KO or his first goal, this one surely did. 3-1!
The third period started with the Thrashers still controlling play but a defensemen got caught up ice. A quick turnover led to a fairly easy 2 on 1 goal for the Caps. Having scene this scenario far too often over the years and knowing the talent of the Caps, I got a sinking feeling in my stomach with only a one goal lead. Fortunately, the Thrashers continued to play extremely well and there weren't many good Capital shots. A icing situation forced by the Thrashers forecheck resulted in a quick goal off a faceoff by Modin. The Thrashers played great defense down the stretch including the last 1:20 when the Caps pulled their goalie.
It was an amazing performance under some extreme circumstances. They way the team responded showed quite a bit about the players on the roster and the coaches behind the bench. While it must have been hard for Mason to come into that situation, he handled it fairly well. None of the goals could be blamed on him. I think he can play better in terms of rebound control but he came up big when needed to. He had once save on Ovechkin that had Alex shaking his head in disbelief.
Normally, I'd agree with the media and pick Kane as the star of the game but in this contest it has to go to the medical staff, specialists and EMTs. I cannot believe how quick they responded to the situation.
Kane was a monster all night long. Not only the strongest puck handler, but he also delivered the biggest hits. At the beginning of the game I was thinking I should revise my prediction of 30G/70PTs down a bit (25/65). Maybe now I should RAISE them.
The former Blackhawks also played a big role. Not only did Ladd get on the board but Byfuglien was probably their best defenseman. Sopel was good at blocking shots (the team blocked a ton) and all made their physical presence know.
I was a bit shocked to see the rookie, Burmistov, playing on the penalty kill in his first NHL game. That's almost unheard of. Frankly, he did a very good job. He was also a force on the offensive end. He gets a bit over matched by size from time to time but has some speed, nice hands and some nifty moves.
They outplayed the Caps by a large margin, got more shots, more hits, more shot blocks and won more faceoffs. Those are categories the Thrashers rarely win, especially against teams like the Caps.
I don't want to get too excited because the Thrashers have looked good for a game or two before. However, I saw all the elements that were advertised to us, by the coaches, all offseason. A more physical, fore-checking team with an active yet responsible defense. Solid goaltending and good number of guys with good puck skills. This was no cupcake they beat. The Capitals wanted to come out strong after their lackluster playoff showing. It's a long season ahead but the first step was a mighty nice one.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
NHL 2010-11 Predictions
Once again time is running out on me. I always try to put these predictions out as late as possible so I can take into account the most recent injuries, acquisitions and lineup changes. At some point I’ve got to just dig in and do the write-up. It’s a tradition going back over twenty years although the forum for sharing the information and means of presentation changes a bit from year to year.
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
----
9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
As always, the hardest spots to pick are the last few playoff spots. Generally there are a handful of teams you can pencil in the playoffs barring some serious injury issues (the kind that almost did in the Wings last year). The same can be said for a couple of bottom feeders, those with little chance of sniffing even an eighth seed. However, that bottom is getting more and more competitive with each passing year.
I’ve decided to borrow a bit from an ESPN Magazine/Insider article. I have no qualms about this since ESPN frequently robs NHL material from other sources and makes up crap. Since ESPN rates hockey somewhere below bog snorkeling, cheese rolling and wife carrying on their sports radar, they can kiss my ass. The premise is to define a team’s “window” for winning the Stanley Cup. A team can be approaching that window or within the window. If a team is within the window, it is only a matter of time before that window closes and they become an “approaching” team once again. Some teams can stay in the window a long time (Wings) while others always seem to be approaching (Thrashers).
In addition to the “window” concept, I’m going to “trend” a team as well. The idea is to give an idea of how fast a team is improving or declining. Keep in mind that it is much more likely for a really high team to have a big negative trend and a really low team to have a large positive trend.
Just because I pick a team to win a conference or a division does not mean I think they’ll be a good playoff team. That’s why I add playoff predictions as well. I’m sure there are more than a few Capital and Shark fans who could care less whether their teams win the regular season crown.
Without further ado (and I do like ado), here’s my picks.
The first measure is “window”. The first character is either “O” (opening) or “C” (closing). Closing is good because it means the team is currently within the window! The number represents the years before the window opens/closes. For example, a “C2” means the team has a realistic shot a winning the Stanley in the next 2 years; an “O3” means a team should be in contention for the Stanley Cup three years from now. To give a team anything beyond 5 years for closing/opening, I’ve got to have a lot respect/disrespect for the players or organization. A lot can happen in 5 years and a team needs to make adjustments to those changes.
Last is a team’s trend. This is a value from “[---]” (rapid decline) to [+++] (rapid ascent). A team trending neither up nor down is indicated by [nt] (no trend).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Washington Capitals [C6] [nt] – Their easy division should provide another cakewalk to the conference title; but will the lack of competition hurt them in the end. Questions continue about goaltending and defense.
2. Pittsburgh Penguins [C6] [+] – Dogfight to win the division but new pieces reap dividends. Biggest question is whether or not Fluery can regain touch. Will Staal get healthy quick enough?
3. Boston Bruins [C5] [++] – Some really nice offseason additions but losing Savard for an extended period will hurt. They should come out on top in a rather weak division. It’ll be interesting to see how Thomas rebounds and if he is still with the team come March. Seguin’s importance cannot be understated.
4. Philadelphia Flyers [C4][nt] – Will fight with Pittsburgh all season long but come up short. Regular season will look more like last years post-season. They have ton of depth/talent everywhere but goaltending. Desperately need at least one goalie to play decent (not necessarily great) and stay healthy.
5. New Jersey Devils [C1][-] – Always seem to be just one bad injury away from missing the playoffs. Must find way to get Broduer to be a team player and take a few more nights off. I’m still waiting to see the moves that have to be made to reach the salary cap. These are delayed a few weeks due to injury.
6. Tampa Bay Lightning [O2][++] – I’m not sure they are a surprise to make the playoffs given the amount of talent influx, new solid ownership and new pedigreed GM. The biggest question mark just might be coaching. Can they contend for a cup before St. Louis and Lecavalier decline?
7. Buffalo Sabres [O5][-] – The inability to keep quality talent has already taken its toll. If it wasn’t for great goaltending and good coaching, they wouldn’t be in the playoff mix.
8. Ottawa Senators [O5][--} – Age is catching up with the roster and the inability to bring in quality youth is going to hurt them eventually. If goaltending falters, they could easily find themselves in a lottery position.
----
9. Atlanta Thrashers [O3][+++] – I don’t think there is a team in the league that did more to improve itself for the long run in the off-season. The problem is they were starting from a very low position and one again we may have to wait. The dead weight is gone. It should be a team with a lot of speed, good forecheck and a good work ethic. The problem is that there was so much turnover. New coaches, new GM and almost half a new roster in the last six months is going to take a bit see which pieces work together and for communication to work right. I think they finally have a legitimate #1 goalie in Mason who’ll give the team some confidence. To make the playoffs (I wanted to pencil them in at 7 or 8) they’ll need their youngsters to continue to improve. Look for Evander Kane to have a breakout year (30G, 70PT) and Little to rebound nicely. Where the rest of the scoring will come from is anyone’s guess. There is now some depth in the organization, especially on defense so that underachievers can be replaced with NHL ready players. Once again I’ll be looking for a team that can avoid long losing streaks and play hard every night. Finding a way to beat divisional opponents, especially at home is key. The fans will come IF they win, Kovy or no Kovy. Who will emerge a leader?
10. Montreal Canadiens [O3][-] – I don’t buy that the team that beat the Caps and Penguins in the playoffs is the real Canadien’s team. I don’t think Price is all that great a goalie and their new backups are a major step back. This team is one injury away from falling way back.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs [O3]{+++] – I really like what the Leafs have done in the last year. Some very nice trades have transformed the roster into one that should eventually be a consistent playoff team. Unfortunately, they are not developing youth quite as well. Don’t be surprised to see this team in the playoff hunt during the last month and if another trade or two can be made, the Leafs could grab one of the spots.
12. New York Rangers [O4][-] – They made some decent offseason acquisitions but are going to have to play a lot of inexperience along the blue line. Lunquist cannot play as many games, Gaborik must stay healthy and they need to add at least one more quality player ASAP. Drury will continue to decline.
13. Carolina Hurricanes [O5][--] – It was bound to happen at some point. While I believe there is still talent enough to make a run for the playoffs, the financial makeover has left the team much thinner. Ward keeps them in every game but carry this roster is going to be tough.
14. New York Islanders [O4][++] – A perennial bottom feeder might be poised to fight for the playoffs soon. That’s the benefit of all those low draft picks. However, until they turn the corner and get a nicer arena, it is going to be tough to lure free agents. DiPietro better return to form this season.
15. Florida Panthers [O3][-] – A team continually cycling players has no real shot at anything beyond a bottom seed and early exit. There is a lack of identity and leadership here, despite some strong coaching and goaltending. If Vokoun wasn’t around, would this team win 25 games?
Conference Note: The top 4 are almost certain to make the playoffs. The Devils and probably 1 or 2 other teams will fight for 5-6. The rest is a big crap shoot. I believe any team of the #6-#15 teams has a near 50% chance.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Vancouver Canucks [C3][++] – Like Washington, a beneficiary of a weak division. Unlike Washington they made some really nice acquisitions which should take the team to the next level. All eyes will be on Luongo come playoff time.
2. Detroit Red Wings [C2][+] – Not likely the injuries will be as bad as last year and three big additions (Modano, Solei, Hudler) bring back some depth at both ends. Howard needs avoid a sophomore slump as Osgood isn’t capable of carrying the team anymore. Chicago’s teardown should make winning the division an easier feat. Their window may close for a year or two once Lidstrom retires. I'm not sure I can pick out a breakout player for this roster but if Franzen stays healthy he could be a 40 goal scorer.
3. San Jose Sharks [C4]{nt] – Although the talent and coaching is in place, mental fatigue could cause this window to close prematurely. A real-deal goaltender better emerge from the strong group or this could be their last run for awhile.
4. Los Angeles Kings [O1][+] – The young roster is ready to take it to the next level but do they have enough consistent secondary scoring to make a playoff run? Is the goaltending playoff caliber?
5. Chicago Blackhawks[C6][-] – The window doesn’t close because of loss of talent but the opening sure got smaller. They’ll probably be a bit down for 1 or 2 years and come back with a vengeance. They’ll still be very competitive in the short-term. They must eventually find a goalie to go with all the young talent.
6. Phoenix Coyotes[O2][nt] – Team probably overachieved last year but proved just how far good goaltending, sound defense and solid coaching can get you. They’ll continue to be a menace as long as that is in place.
7. Nashville Predators[O4][-] – Kind of hard to give an open/close rating for an operation that always seems to be just a notch away from making a run despite a rather weak roster. I actually expect a bit of a dropoff this year but some of the best coaching will once again get the most out of his players. This year I think goaltending will bite them in the ass.
8. Calgary Oilers[O5][--] – Dipping into the past is rarely a good for a team. This team has shot itself in the foot one too many times. With an aging roster that is clearly on the decline, they’ll be the new Maple Leafs before long, if they don’t accept it.
---
9. Colorado Avalanche[O3][+] – The later part of last season revealed this team for who I think they really are. While they surprised me with how well they did, I doubt that can repeat it. More likely to be fighting for one of the last spots come April. The future does look bright though.
10. St. Louis Blues[O3]{+] – Historically this has been one of my toughest picks and this season is no different. A nice solid young core and really nice goaltending tandem. Can the offense get them to the playoffs? Not this year. Is there any leadership left?
11. Anaheim Ducks[O4][-] – What was once a proud organization has fallen on tough times. They quickly learned just how hard it is to replace 2 all-star defensemen. Trying to carry the team with one great offensive line simply doesn’t work. Things may get worse before they get better.
12. Columbus Blue Jackets[O5][-] – The Western Conference equivalent of the Atlanta Thrashers. They have never been able to dig themselves out of the hole due to inept drafting, development issues and a tight budget. While the Thrashers look like they are on the uptick, the Blue Jackets appear destined for the bottom for the near future. With Nash signed long term trading him probably isn’t an option, although it just might be what the franchise needs.
13. Dallas Stars[O5][--] – Things don’t look pretty in Dallas as the reality of a different salary structure and a team rebuild is now in full force. There is some talent, just not enough to compete in the West. Kari Lehtonen should fit right in, but not in a good way.
14. Edmonton Oilers[O5[[++] – Definitely on the upswing but a long way to go until they can seriously compete. They’ll probably be the worst team in the NHL but not for long. They may be the best team in Alberta by season’s end.
15. Minnesota Wild[O4][-] – These fans deserve better. First, they had their team taken away (Stars). Then, they were forced to endured the most boring hockey on the planet (Lemaire’s trap). Finally, one of their most entertaining (albeit injured) players is allowed to leave (Gaborik). They have sold out the place each and every night since inception. They actually have the money to spend, but consistently misappropriate it. Ultimately, I think the changes they are going through will be for the better. That better simply isn’t going to happen in the next couple seasons.
Conference Note : The top 5 are almost certain to make the playoffs. Phoenix may be a near lock. Look for a fight among 3-5 teams for the final 2 spots and the worst team in the league to emerge from the bottom 3. That Northwest division is going to be a cakewalk for Vancouver for a couple of years.
PLAYOFFS/CUP
It’s always difficult to make these predictions ahead of time. Match-ups, injuries and trades can completely change the landscape. The ones I do before the playoffs are usually much more accurate. That being said, these picks wouldn’t be complete without them.
CONFERENCE FINALS
EAST : Capitals vs Penguins (yuck!!!)
I wanted to go Bruins but doubts about center and what the goalie situation will be prevented that. If Flyers find a consistent goalie (one way or another) they could easily knock off one of these teams.
WEST : Canucks vs Wings
Hawks lack the depth, grit and goaltending to make a return trip. Wings and Sharks was a tossup so I went with my heart.
FINALS : Canucks over Penguins
Penguins finally expose the Capitals weakness in goal and march through West takes a toll on the Wings.
I’m officially an 90 minutes late for the NHL opening faceoff. The first 90 minutes of hockey in Finland has changed my mind. Throw out everything above. The Minnesota Wild will compete win the Stanley Cup. I’m coming home for the parade!
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Stanley Cup Final
The end of the season is almost upon us but not before a battle between two teams looking end long droughts and finally sip from Lord Stanley's Cup.
First, a look back at last rounds predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45 - LOSS
Once again San Jose fell short of the ultimate goal. When it came down to it, most of the stars were not the biggest players on the biggest stage. Thorton had a miserable +/- and Heatley was almost non-existant. When Nabakoov makes his next timely save, it'll be his first and likely happen in another teams uniform. Chicago came to play and worked hard throughout the series. Niemi proved to everyone he is more than capable of delivering a Stanley Cup to Chicago. Chicago's secondary players did a much better job than San Jose's and essentially made the difference in the series. It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out in San Jose.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50 - WIN
I really wasn't surprised by the outcome in this series. I think Philly has way more talent than Montreal does and the Canadiens good luck was bound to run out. The fact that Gagne and Carter were able to return to the Flyers lineup made the task that much more difficult for the Habs. With their goaltending back to normal levels and with little scoring depth they were overwhelmed. The most disappointing aspect of the series is that each game was pretty much a blowout. Only a couple minutes of the entire series were played with the score close. The Flyers did a better job of grinding it out in the corners at both ends of the ice and that paid big dividends. The Montreal team that somehow shutdown the Capitals and Penguins skilled players wasn't capable of the same against a team determined to play into coach Laviolette's philosophy.
This round I went 1-1 (50%) with my predictions and $50 of $95 wagered (53%). Overall I'm 9-5 (64%) and $455 of $740 wagered (61%).
Now for the finals prediction
CHICAGO #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #7
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $80
Two teams who took two widely different paths to the final. Chicago started on the season as a Stanley Cup favorite and gave no reason throughout the season or playoffs to doubt that. They easily won the Central Division and were at or near the top of the West all year. The dispatched each of their playoff opponents with relative ease despite facing some tough opponents.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia it was a story of streaks. For every long winning streak, a similarly long losing streak was soon to follow. A team that looked like a Cup contender had problems all year with injuries to significant players. A question mark at goalie coming in became a sideshow during the season as injuries ravaged the position. But just when everything was coming apart late in the year a castoff goalie grabbed from the waiver wire got the Flyers back in the hunt. It took them a shootout victory on the last game of the season to make the playoffs but with it they were given an opportunity to reclaim their season.
Frankly, I liked the makeup of this Flyer squad from the beginning of the season. Just the right mix of youth and experience and plenty of grit. There were some questions about leadership and chemistry but the playoffs have brought out their best. Like many my biggest question mark was goaltending. Was it enough?
The Flyers have had some good fortune in these playoffs. They manage to avoid the two offensive juggernauts in the East (Capitals & Penguins) and faced a couple of overacheivers (New Jersey, Montreal). This test will be a completely different magnitude. While I think the Flyers will be far more competitive than a lot of people expect, I think their goaltending will finally be victimized against a damn good offensive opponent.
Chicago may not have the experience of the Flyers but they present huge matchup problems. With high level skill 3 lines deep, the Flyers will be chasing them a lot. This is precisely the type of team that tends to victimize Pronger. While a big body in front of the net or at the point, one thing Pronger isn't is swift of foot. It the Hawks can get him chasing, it'll lead to mistakes and penalties.
The Hawks aren't short on grit and Byfuglien will give them fits in front of the net. While the defense is chasing the likes of Kane, Towes, Sharp and Hossa, grinders like Bolland, Ladd and Versteeg will sneak in on net. Chicago is also more dynamic on defense. More depth at the blueline and the capability to turn it around on offense may expose some of the Flyers less disciplined skaters.
But all is not lost for the Flyers. They possess a very good powerplay and a dangerous penalty kill. If Chicago makes poor decisions and winds up in the box the series could turn into a toss up. The Flyers cannot take bad penalties. If this means keep Carcillo on the bench, then it must be done.
The Flyers best chance lies with jumping to early leads, building confidence and keep the Blackhawk fans quiet. The Flyers must win on home ice and hope they can steal an early game in Chicago.
Here's hoping it is a great series and we can end the season with a bang. One team will get to raise the cup for the first time in 35 (Philly) or 49 (Chicago) years. To rapid fan bases are ready to explode.
First, a look back at last rounds predictions:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45 - LOSS
Once again San Jose fell short of the ultimate goal. When it came down to it, most of the stars were not the biggest players on the biggest stage. Thorton had a miserable +/- and Heatley was almost non-existant. When Nabakoov makes his next timely save, it'll be his first and likely happen in another teams uniform. Chicago came to play and worked hard throughout the series. Niemi proved to everyone he is more than capable of delivering a Stanley Cup to Chicago. Chicago's secondary players did a much better job than San Jose's and essentially made the difference in the series. It'll be interesting to see how the offseason plays out in San Jose.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50 - WIN
I really wasn't surprised by the outcome in this series. I think Philly has way more talent than Montreal does and the Canadiens good luck was bound to run out. The fact that Gagne and Carter were able to return to the Flyers lineup made the task that much more difficult for the Habs. With their goaltending back to normal levels and with little scoring depth they were overwhelmed. The most disappointing aspect of the series is that each game was pretty much a blowout. Only a couple minutes of the entire series were played with the score close. The Flyers did a better job of grinding it out in the corners at both ends of the ice and that paid big dividends. The Montreal team that somehow shutdown the Capitals and Penguins skilled players wasn't capable of the same against a team determined to play into coach Laviolette's philosophy.
This round I went 1-1 (50%) with my predictions and $50 of $95 wagered (53%). Overall I'm 9-5 (64%) and $455 of $740 wagered (61%).
Now for the finals prediction
CHICAGO #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #7
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $80
Two teams who took two widely different paths to the final. Chicago started on the season as a Stanley Cup favorite and gave no reason throughout the season or playoffs to doubt that. They easily won the Central Division and were at or near the top of the West all year. The dispatched each of their playoff opponents with relative ease despite facing some tough opponents.
Meanwhile in Philadelphia it was a story of streaks. For every long winning streak, a similarly long losing streak was soon to follow. A team that looked like a Cup contender had problems all year with injuries to significant players. A question mark at goalie coming in became a sideshow during the season as injuries ravaged the position. But just when everything was coming apart late in the year a castoff goalie grabbed from the waiver wire got the Flyers back in the hunt. It took them a shootout victory on the last game of the season to make the playoffs but with it they were given an opportunity to reclaim their season.
Frankly, I liked the makeup of this Flyer squad from the beginning of the season. Just the right mix of youth and experience and plenty of grit. There were some questions about leadership and chemistry but the playoffs have brought out their best. Like many my biggest question mark was goaltending. Was it enough?
The Flyers have had some good fortune in these playoffs. They manage to avoid the two offensive juggernauts in the East (Capitals & Penguins) and faced a couple of overacheivers (New Jersey, Montreal). This test will be a completely different magnitude. While I think the Flyers will be far more competitive than a lot of people expect, I think their goaltending will finally be victimized against a damn good offensive opponent.
Chicago may not have the experience of the Flyers but they present huge matchup problems. With high level skill 3 lines deep, the Flyers will be chasing them a lot. This is precisely the type of team that tends to victimize Pronger. While a big body in front of the net or at the point, one thing Pronger isn't is swift of foot. It the Hawks can get him chasing, it'll lead to mistakes and penalties.
The Hawks aren't short on grit and Byfuglien will give them fits in front of the net. While the defense is chasing the likes of Kane, Towes, Sharp and Hossa, grinders like Bolland, Ladd and Versteeg will sneak in on net. Chicago is also more dynamic on defense. More depth at the blueline and the capability to turn it around on offense may expose some of the Flyers less disciplined skaters.
But all is not lost for the Flyers. They possess a very good powerplay and a dangerous penalty kill. If Chicago makes poor decisions and winds up in the box the series could turn into a toss up. The Flyers cannot take bad penalties. If this means keep Carcillo on the bench, then it must be done.
The Flyers best chance lies with jumping to early leads, building confidence and keep the Blackhawk fans quiet. The Flyers must win on home ice and hope they can steal an early game in Chicago.
Here's hoping it is a great series and we can end the season with a bang. One team will get to raise the cup for the first time in 35 (Philly) or 49 (Chicago) years. To rapid fan bases are ready to explode.
Sunday, May 16, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3
Just realized I hadn't made predictions for this round when I turned to watch the first game. I'll quickly get the predictions out there and try to fill in the blanks as time permits.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50
WESTERN CONFERENCE
SAN JOSE #1 vs CHICAGO #2
Prediction : San Jose in 6 - $45
EASTERN CONFERENCE
PHILADELPHIA #7 vs MONTREAL #8
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $50
Thursday, April 29, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2
No rest for the weary. After dealing with multiple late night West coast games in round 1, I'll be enduring more in round 2 when the Wings head to San Jose. Less than 24 hours after the last game of round one is completed, round 2 begins. I've got to get these predictions out. I'm under the gun.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
Looking back on round 1 I would have done much better had the Capitals actually played like a team instead of a collection of free lancers. Maybe I should have seen that coming? NO WAY NO HOW!
Let's start with a review of Round 1:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100 - LOSS
Look no further than Washington's power play to understand why this series went so wrong. The Capitals were a miserable 1 for 34 with the man advantage after being one of the best powerplay teams during the regular season. Credit must go to Montreal's defense and goaltender Halak. The Capitals failed big time and this loss will hang with them for a long time. They are quickly becoming San Jose East.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15 - WIN
I had the pick right but unfortunately didn't place much confidence in it. New Jersey completely fell apart and once again has to wonder what went wrong. The reality is this Devils team was not as good as their regular season record indicated and the Flyers weren't as bad. Failing to capitalize on Philly's lack of confidence in the goaltending early did them in. Flyers played an uncharacteristically disciplined game and did a good job of limited Jersey's scoring chances.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40 - LOSS
Going in the concern was that Boston would have trouble scoring without Savard in the lineup. But when Vanek went down for Buffalo, the series turned in Boston's favor. Rask was up to the task and will continue to be a key player moving forward.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90 - WIN
Ottawa gave Pittsburgh a little more fight than I expected as Pittsburgh continued their inconsistent play from the regular season. Crosby was insanely good and simply too much for Ottawa.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100 - WIN
Colorado gave the Sharks a much bigger test than I expected but eventually bowed out to superior talent. This series easily could have gone the other way if it wasn't for a few weird bounces. San Jose's confidence couldn't have been boosted much by this series although it may have sent the message that they'll need to play hard from the get go.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25 - WIN
As I expecteed, Nashville was a tough opponent for the Hawks but the more talented roster won out. Chicago must still be a bit concerned about their defense because there were periods of inconsistency. They'll face much stiffer opposition from here on out so they'll need to elevate to survive. Poor Nashville still hasn't won a playoff series despite some spectacular play over the years. Any chance they could fire Trotz so the Thrashers could hire him. :)
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35 - LOSS
The upset I picked in the West never materialized. The Kings had issues in goal and will have to make a tough decision in the offseason. They also suffered during 5 on 5 hockey. Vancouver played as expected but has to improve their defense to get past round 2.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70 - WIN
I knew this wasn't going to be easy for the Wings but I didn't expect it to be this tough either. They Coyotes did the best job I've ever seen of collapsing their defense around their goal and preventing second chance opportunities. The Coyotes had serious problems on their powerplay outside of 2 games. The Wings penalty kill was impressive. Game 7 saw the Wings experience come to the forefront. Their veteran players elevated their play and their role players did their part in one very impressive win. Props to Yote's goalie Bryzgolov. Without him, the Coyotes might have been swept. Here's hoping a few new fans were created in the desert.
I went 5-3 (62.5%) with my predictions and $300 of $450 wagered (66.7%)
Now for the second round:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#5 PITTSBURGH vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : Pittsburgh in 5 - $90
I have a feeling that Montreal has peaked. This rounds matchup is a against a much better rounded team that knows what it takes to reach the next level. Halak would have to maintain an insanely high level of play and I just don't see that happening. Pittsburgh's offense is better structured to deal with playoff hockey than Washington's. The key to any Montreal upset is keeping the Penguins scoring under control and keep Fluery off-balance. With Washington out and injuries in Philly, I have a bad feeling things are setting up for an easy coast to the finals for Pittsburgh.
#6 BOSTON vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : Philadelphia in 6 - $15
This series got a lot tough to pick when Gagne and Carter went down with foot injuries. If both were healthy I'd have no problems picking an upset. With Savard returning to action Boston should get a boost to their offense. All the focus in this series will be on goaltending. Rask will be asked to continue his good play and Boucher will need to keep the Flyers in contests. Normally I would say a high scoring series would benefit the Flyers but without their injured stars, I think both teams want to keep it close to the vest. In the end I think it comes down to the powerplay. Screw it, I need one upset and I'm going out on a limb and picking Philly.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : San Jose in 7 - $35
The classic teacher vs protege matchup. San Jose has been retooled the last two seasons by a former Detroit assistant to be more like the Wings. What he couldn't teach them was experience. The long playoff runs Detroit has mounted over the last decade plus will be both their benefit and their curse in this one. While they may not panic under adversity, I think that all those games are taking their toll both physically and mentally. Eventually they won't be able to push themselves through one more challenge. There is no reason the Wings cannot win this series if they play as they did against the Yotes. I just have a feeling that consistency is going to come to an end at the wrong time. Nabakov must play his best or the Wings will take it. San Jose must keep composure even if a game or series gets out of hand. Howard doesn't need to be stellar but he does have to be very good. Watch the faceoff statistics. Both teams rely on puck control and that all starts with faceoffs.
#2 CHICAGO vs #3 VANCOUVER
Prediction : Chicago in 6 - $55
If you like wide open 1980s style hockey, make sure you tune in to this series. I expect there will be a lot of freewheeling speed on display. So many offensive skill players on both sides. What will eventually win out will be defense and I've got to think that Chicago has the edge there. However, if Vancouver can set the tone early in the series with more than a couple goals in Chicago, it'll make the Blackhawks nervous. Get to Huet by chasing Neimi and I expect the series will won by Vancouver. I don't think Samuelsson can kept up the scoring pace in Vancouver. He's always been a streaky player. Luongo's dream of capturing an Olympic gold and Stanley Cup in the same year will end here.
The matchups are a lot closer in this round as they should be. The top 3 seeds going down in the East has opened up that side to a bunch or just made it an easier task for Pittsburgh to repeat. In the West, all the pretenders have been filtered out and the juggernauts remain. A lot of good hockey coming up.
That's a total of $195 wagered this round.
Now that the Caps are out in the East, I'll adjust my finals pick to be San Jose over Pittsburgh.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
NHL Playoff Predictions
It's that time of year again. The NHL playoffs are set to begin. It's become a yearly ritual for me to make predictions with comments. It seems like every year it is a bit more challenging. So many teams are capable of winning a series. So many goaltenders are capable of stealing a game or two to change the momentum. Every team has some question marks as well as strengths.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
As with previous years, I'm adding a confidence rating to each of my picks. This time I'll bet a fictious $1 - $100 on each series based on this confidence. In the end we'll see just how well I do.
Without further ado.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 WASHINGTON vs #8 MONTREAL
Prediction : WASHINGTON in 6 - $100
I don't see much of chance for Montreal to pull off this upset. Washington is so strong and on a mission to take it to the next level. They've got size, speed and scoring from multiple lines. Mobile defensemen and an agressive system that fits their team perfectly. What they didn't have last year, leadership & experience, they have much more of now. Knuble may well be the player that puts them over the top. Goaltending is a bit scary and I'm not the biggest Theodore supporter. At least they have Varlamov ready. However, few teams can keep up with their scoring prowess. Montreal needs to steal one in Washington and hope Halak can perform the best he ever has.
#2 NEW JERSEY vs #7 PHILADELPHIA
Prediction : PHILADELPHIA in 7 - $15
You can throw out the regular season records any time two rivals meet, especially in the first round. This is the ideal matchup for a Philly squad that has issues in net. Boucher doesn't breed confidence so his defense better step up and limit shots. Stopping both Kovalchuk and Parise will be a key but so will scoring. Philly has struggled with scoring slumps at times and they cannot afford to do it again. Playing in Jersey for the first 2 may take some of the pressure off the underachieving Flyer squad. Jersey still relies on goaltending and defense first but if the Flyers can get to Broduer early he can be shaken. Flyers need to be physical but not be stupid. Powerplays will likely decide this series.
#3 BUFFALO vs #6 BOSTON
Prediction : BUFFALO in 7 - $40
This series is all about goaltending. Two of the best in the league face off against each other and both generally rise to the occassion. The more experienced Miller is no mystery to anyone who watched the Olympics but Rask is just as good and may have the better defensive supporting cast. I like Buffalo because I think they have more offensive punch. If Savard was playing he may have been the difference in the series. It would surprise me to see a couple long OT games in this series.
#4 PITTSBURGH vs #5 OTTAWA
Prediction : PITTSBURGH in 5 - $90
Normally 4 vs 5 contests are fairly even affairs but I think this one is a mismatch. While the Penguins haven't played up to their level lately, I expect they'll kick it up a notch now that the "real" season has started. Meanwhile, Ottawa has struggled as of late and the loss of Kovalev (torn ACL) won't help the situation. Pittsburgh simply has too many weapons to deal with. Ottawa's only hope is to steal game 1.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 SAN JOSE vs #8 COLORADO
Prediction : SAN JOSE in 5 - $100
I know San Jose has been a repeated underachiever in the playoffs but I just don't see them slipping up in the first round. Colorado started the season red-hot but has played about .500 hockey since the beginning of the year. It is a major accomplishment for the young Avs but I just don't see a scenario where they outlast the Sharks. The Sharks have more talent at just about every position and the Avs have dearth of playoff experience and veteran leadership. San Jose will get tested eventually just not this round.
#2 CHICAGO vs #7 NASHVILLE
Prediction : CHICAGO in 7 - $25
I wanted to pick Nashville but I simply couldn't do it in the end. I suspect Nashville will give Chicago a hard fight but come up short in the end. Nashville does a great job of limiting opportunities and playing mistake free hockey and all their hope depends on it. Chicago will have a distinct advantage at home and I think their offense is just too much for Nashville to match. Goaltending will be key and Nashville may have to hope for implosion in Chicago. Chicago will be nervous because the team hasn't played as well as of late. Nashville will want to seed those fears with an early lead in both games and the series. Chicago better not underestimate their opponent. I think that is unlikely given their familiarity and Nashville's previous playoff contests.
#3 VANCOUVER vs #6 LOS ANGELES
Prediction : Los Angeles in 6 - $35
I'm picking a significant upset in this one because I have a feeling Luongo will falter at the wrong time once again. Goaltending is an issue with the Kings as well so we could see some high-scoring contests. The Kings have the right mix of veterans and youth to pull off the upset but it won't be easy. If the Kings can't steal one of the first two, Vancouver will probably prevail. Each of the Kings stars must rise their level of play and find a way to minimize the Sedin twins while keeping a close eye on Burrows.
#4 PHOENIX vs #5 DETROIT
Prediction : Detroit in 6 - $70
Much like the 4 vs 5 matchup in the East, this one may not be so close. Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season at just the right time. Phoenix has played great but the playoffs are a whole different experience. I expect we'll see tons of Wing fans in the desert and without the added pressure of opening at home, the Wings will steal one early to control the series. Phoenix won't back down easy and they have got to hope that Howard isn't ready for playoff hockey. Staying out of the penalty box will important for the Coyotes as will capitalizing on their own opportunities. My biggest concern with the Wings is secondary scoring. Bertuzzi, Filpulla, Cleary and others must step up to help Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen and Holmstrom. Bryzgolov is Phoenix's best chance. The Wings have been know to bring out the best in opponent goalies.
That's $475 wagered on this round.
One last thing before ending this. In the preseason I picked Boston over San Jose for the cup. I cannot stick with Boston at this point but I will stick with the Sharks. I'm really not sure who'll come out of the East but based on games I've seen in person, the Caps are going to be tough to beat.
I'll take San Jose over Washington in the final though with Heatley winning the Conn Smyth. Not exactly what I want to see but I don't make these picks with my heart. Of course, a lot can happen between now and mid-June so stay tuned.
NHL Predictions - A Look Back
Before I dive head-first into playoff predictions, I need to look back and see how well I did with my preseason predictions.
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
In the East I had a pretty good grasp on things. My biggest miss was probably Boston. They didn't end up on top of the conference and instead ending up fighting for a playoff spot. I thought some of their younger players would continue to progress but most of their offensive players stagnated. Losing Savard multiple times during season didn't help. Similarly, Philly was a disappointment. For every time they put together a solid run, they would stumbled back to the pack. I still like the makeup of that team but something just hasn't clicked right consistently.
Pittsburgh and Jersey played pretty much as I expected. Ottawa and Buffalo impressed me with how well they played as a team. Carolina would have met my expectations but they got off to a horrible start and couldn't overcome that despite playing some of the best hockey in the league post January 1.
One thing I did nail was "There is a huge drop off from #5 to the rest of the conference. So much so that I think the bottom 10 teams would have trouble sniffing the playoffs in the West...The last few playoffs spots are a huge crap shoot because most of these teams are grouped so close together. I expect spots 6-8 a dogfight between 6 teams in the final week". Unfortunately, the Thrashers ended up closer to the bottom of that pack and on the outside of playoffs. My prediction for the Rangers was spot on and I've got to wonder why nobody in the Rangers front office couldn't make the same observations. At least they might have turned the corner with regards to developing talent from within.
In the West I pretty much screwed the pooch. I thought Phoenix and Colorado would be awful and they turned out to be very competitive teams. While neither is probably up to the task of a long playoff run both accomplished a lot just getting in. Meanwhile, Calgary and Anaheim were major disappointments and I've got to wonder how different those two will be next season.
Detroit did lose the division to Chicago but considering the number of injuries they faced, the players affected, and the duration of the injuries, finishing just 10 points back of a very talented Chicago team ain't bad at all. The way Detroit handled the situation is a testament to management, coaching and players in Detroit. After feeling pretty insecure about the goaltending early in the season, I now see it as a position of strength on the team.
San Jose and Vancouver both played as I expected them to in the regular season. But with both of those, the true test awaits in the playoffs. I don't know how Nashville does it each year but I'm going to have to start treating them like New Jersey and never count them out. I guess that is what great coaching gets you.
Now on to the playoffs!
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Thrashers Game Report - 01/09/10
Washington 8 - Atlanta 1
I should have known when I had to spend double my usual for parking because of a monster truck event that I was in for a bad evening. I had hope the Thrashers could build on the victory versus the Rangers that I witnesses just two days prior.
I'm not going to bore you with goal by goal details because frankly I cannot relive that painful night.
Everything started pretty well. There was a really good crowd on hand, the best I've seen since opening night. Despite lots of cocky Capital fans sitting around me while I ate my stadium fare, the energy they brought to the building was nice.
When the puck first dropped, the Thrashers came out and played some pretty good hockey. But when the Captials scored first, you couldn't help but get the feeling of "here we go again". The frustration of the players was easily exceeded by the frustration of the fans. When they left the ice down 3-0 after the first, the boos rang down loud and clear.
It didn't get any better the rest of the game. Each time the Thrashers tried to move the puck up the ice, they'd make a critical mistake. Each time the gave a Capital some space, he'd get the puck into the net. At one point they had 4 goals on 9 shots. The Thrashers had zero energy, zero passion and looked like children skating amongst men.
The final tally was 8-1 but there were much worse things than the score. It appeared that less than a handful of players seemed to care about what was happening on ice. Only a couple played each shift hard (Enstrom and Kane were the two I noticed). They were outhustled to every loose puck and didn't even ramp up the physicality when the game was out of reach.
I think it is time for some radical changes. The easiest would be to fire Anderson and replace him with Cunnyworth. Todd White needs to be replaced or at least demoted. His only vital role is on the penalty kill and he simply coasts 90% of the time. Same goes for Kozlov who is only effective in the shootout. While well liked by his teammates, Kozlov must be benched for the better of the team. Finally, a serious ass kicking is needed to light a fire under all players and those that don't bring more energy must be held accountable.
As I write this, the Thrashers are playing a game I consider "must-win". Any hopes of making the playoffs depend on getting more points during this homestand. Anderson has made a couple moves effectively demoting both Kozlov and White to the 4th line. Why he didn't do this weeks ago is beyond me. So far so good. That line has accounted for 3 goals and the Thrashers lead 6-1!
However, the real test will be whether or not they can sustain good play. A single win will not get them back into the thick of the race. A hard stretch awaits just before the Olympic break and they need to get themselves a bit of cushion before then. Only time will tell.
I should have known when I had to spend double my usual for parking because of a monster truck event that I was in for a bad evening. I had hope the Thrashers could build on the victory versus the Rangers that I witnesses just two days prior.
I'm not going to bore you with goal by goal details because frankly I cannot relive that painful night.
Everything started pretty well. There was a really good crowd on hand, the best I've seen since opening night. Despite lots of cocky Capital fans sitting around me while I ate my stadium fare, the energy they brought to the building was nice.
When the puck first dropped, the Thrashers came out and played some pretty good hockey. But when the Captials scored first, you couldn't help but get the feeling of "here we go again". The frustration of the players was easily exceeded by the frustration of the fans. When they left the ice down 3-0 after the first, the boos rang down loud and clear.
It didn't get any better the rest of the game. Each time the Thrashers tried to move the puck up the ice, they'd make a critical mistake. Each time the gave a Capital some space, he'd get the puck into the net. At one point they had 4 goals on 9 shots. The Thrashers had zero energy, zero passion and looked like children skating amongst men.
The final tally was 8-1 but there were much worse things than the score. It appeared that less than a handful of players seemed to care about what was happening on ice. Only a couple played each shift hard (Enstrom and Kane were the two I noticed). They were outhustled to every loose puck and didn't even ramp up the physicality when the game was out of reach.
I think it is time for some radical changes. The easiest would be to fire Anderson and replace him with Cunnyworth. Todd White needs to be replaced or at least demoted. His only vital role is on the penalty kill and he simply coasts 90% of the time. Same goes for Kozlov who is only effective in the shootout. While well liked by his teammates, Kozlov must be benched for the better of the team. Finally, a serious ass kicking is needed to light a fire under all players and those that don't bring more energy must be held accountable.
As I write this, the Thrashers are playing a game I consider "must-win". Any hopes of making the playoffs depend on getting more points during this homestand. Anderson has made a couple moves effectively demoting both Kozlov and White to the 4th line. Why he didn't do this weeks ago is beyond me. So far so good. That line has accounted for 3 goals and the Thrashers lead 6-1!
However, the real test will be whether or not they can sustain good play. A single win will not get them back into the thick of the race. A hard stretch awaits just before the Olympic break and they need to get themselves a bit of cushion before then. Only time will tell.
Thrashers Game Report - 01/07/10
Atlanta 2 - New York Rangers 1 SO
First home game of the year, first back from a very unsuccessful roadtrip. Despite the threat of snow and ice, I shuffled my ass down to the arena to see if maybe the team could turn fortunes around on home ice.
The Thrashers came out strong and controlled a good portion of early play. If not for the superb play of New York's rookie goaltender and a couple of goalposts, the Thrashers might have scored 2 or 3 goals. Instead they headed for the lockerroom tied at 0-0.
New York sees a bit of jump in the second period and manages to create a nice deflection in front the net to give them a 1-0 lead.
Neither team generates much offense for the remainder of the contest making for quite a boring affair. While it was nice to see the Thrashers play some sound defense for a change, I was worried the good play might be wasted. But with a little more than 6 minutes remaining, Slater broke free and brought the arena to its feet when he scored.
From that point it seemed both teams were content to get to OT and get at least a single point. Once in OT the Thrashers looked like a team worried they were going to lose instead of playing to win. The Rangers had multiple opportunities but simply couldn't cash in. The game was headed to the shootout.
While superstars Kovalchuk couldn't deliver in the shootout, specialist Kozlov did. Add another by Little and a few saves by Hedberg and the Thrashers managed to beat the Rangers once more. With 3 wins in 3 tries against the boys from New York, it is a shame they can't play them more often.
Not much better than beating the Rangers!
First home game of the year, first back from a very unsuccessful roadtrip. Despite the threat of snow and ice, I shuffled my ass down to the arena to see if maybe the team could turn fortunes around on home ice.
The Thrashers came out strong and controlled a good portion of early play. If not for the superb play of New York's rookie goaltender and a couple of goalposts, the Thrashers might have scored 2 or 3 goals. Instead they headed for the lockerroom tied at 0-0.
New York sees a bit of jump in the second period and manages to create a nice deflection in front the net to give them a 1-0 lead.
Neither team generates much offense for the remainder of the contest making for quite a boring affair. While it was nice to see the Thrashers play some sound defense for a change, I was worried the good play might be wasted. But with a little more than 6 minutes remaining, Slater broke free and brought the arena to its feet when he scored.
From that point it seemed both teams were content to get to OT and get at least a single point. Once in OT the Thrashers looked like a team worried they were going to lose instead of playing to win. The Rangers had multiple opportunities but simply couldn't cash in. The game was headed to the shootout.
While superstars Kovalchuk couldn't deliver in the shootout, specialist Kozlov did. Add another by Little and a few saves by Hedberg and the Thrashers managed to beat the Rangers once more. With 3 wins in 3 tries against the boys from New York, it is a shame they can't play them more often.
Not much better than beating the Rangers!
Friday, December 18, 2009
Thrashers Game Report - 12/17/09
Atlanta 6 - Dallas 5 OT
This was one of those games Atlanta had no business winning. They were outshot badly, 47-24, couldn't control the puck for large portions of the contest and didn't have much jump.
A few things kept them in the contest. First, Dallas's goaltending was weak. Auld let in a couple of soft goals. While Turco was much stronger as a replacement, he allowed 3 more to get past him. Second, special teams were able to convert their opportunities. The Thrashers scored 2 powerplay goals and a shorthanded goal to go with their 4 on 4 overtime winner. Finally, Pavelec had spectacular saves. While I could argue that juicy rebounds gave the Stars some of those great opportunities, Pavelec did make several cross crease slides or quick glove hand saves on almost certain goals. The goals he did allow were not of his own doing. The were either defensive breakdowns or deflections.
The Thrashers started slow taking a penalty in the first 2 minutes that resulted in the Stars first tally. Yet another game where they fell behind. Fortunately, they were able to answer back on a powerplay of their own when Kovalchuk got his 19th of the season. A powerplay opportunity later in the first presented the Thrashers with an opportunity for the lead but when 3 defenders converge on a single Star, he passed it to a wide open Lehtonen for an easy short-handed goal.
The Thrashers found a bit more jump in the second period and good puck movement resulted in goals by Slater (finally) and Antropov giving the Thrashers a brief lead. Dallas answered to make it a 3-3 tie at the end of 2.
Reasoner took a tripping penalty early in the 3rd and Dallas cashed in for a 4-3 lead. 4 minutes later, Afinogenov found himself alone beyond the Dallas defense for a breakaway. A Dallas player hauled him down for what I thought should have been a penalty shot but was simply a penalty (I need to review this rule today). However, justice was served as Afinogenov got the powerplay goal on some nice passing down low and we were tied once again.
Atlanta's Shubert was the victim of a poor call with 9 minutes left when he got tagged for holding when it was actually the Dallas player holding Shubert's stick. It didn't matter. This time the Thrashers got a short-handed goal when Peverly took a very nice Armstrong chip pass and turned it into a breakaway.
Unfortunately, things fell apart for the next several minutes. The Thrashers couldn't get the puck out of their end short of icing it. A timeout and several faceoffs didn't change things. You could sense the Stars were going to tie it up with one minute remaining. Sure enough they did when a deflection of a players face shield got the puck behind Pavelec (see video). From there the Thrashers were content to hold the puck and send it to OT.
The Thrashers controlled play in the 4 on 4 session. Some really nice puck movement in the Stars end provided just the opportunity they were looking for. An Afinogenov pass found Peverly in front of the net for nice redirection and the game winning goal. I headed to the exit satisfied that the team managed to grab 2 points they'll probably need when all is said and done.
Peverly and Pavelec got the 1st and 2nd stars of the game with Kovalchuk grabbing the third. Robidas, who played an excellent game for the Stars, fell victim to the home team bias.
Some other observations:
- I really like Shubert as the Thrasher's fifth defenseman. He plays excellent position, isn't afraid of contact and has the skills to help out on the offensive end. Another great waiver wire acquistion that I'm hoping will be around for a long time.
- Hedberg and Turco spent a good deal of time talking and laughing together in pre-game warmups. It was nice to see these former teammates together. Modano and Robidas also skated by and greeted Hedberg.
- If you cannot afford to have an "A" stitched on your Bogosian sweater, blue duct tape is NOT an acceptable solution even if you are a redneck.
- I want a hat that says "NO, I DO NOT WANT A 50/50 RAFFLE TICKET". I must have got asked 10 times while eating my dinner. I know your dog is cute. I know your cause is good. But honestly, this isn't any different than panhandling. I have an easier time getting the crackheads to steer clear of me than I do these people.
- It is only slightly more entertaining to watch a chicken fajita wrap, baby back ribs and a sirloin race around a hockey rink than giant pucks. Watching Thrash and the sumos check them face first to the ice is real entertainment. I wonder is Applebees has a missing tooth discount.
- On a related note. Can we please do away with the golfing one ice contest? If I wanted to watch golf, I'd stay home and watch Tiger's conquests....Get your mind out of the gutter.
- Why do cheerleaders have to carry pom-poms wherever they go? Do they not know what to do with the hands otherwise? Are they some sort of defensive weapon to fight off creepy 40 year olds?
- Who are these guys that decide an arena is the best place to propose marraige? Just once I wish on of the brides to be would say "Hell no! How dare you propose in front of thousands of strangers? We're only on our second date!"
- I'm give up trying to text the arena jumbotron. Apparently unless you say "Go Dawgs", "i luv u sally. you r a q t pi" or "Go THRASH!" it doesn't get up there. Instead, they'll show those same 3 over and over and over again.
That's it for this game. I'll be at Monday's contest against Montreal. I've got to practice up my "O Canada". At some point I need to learn the half-French half-English version.
This was one of those games Atlanta had no business winning. They were outshot badly, 47-24, couldn't control the puck for large portions of the contest and didn't have much jump.
A few things kept them in the contest. First, Dallas's goaltending was weak. Auld let in a couple of soft goals. While Turco was much stronger as a replacement, he allowed 3 more to get past him. Second, special teams were able to convert their opportunities. The Thrashers scored 2 powerplay goals and a shorthanded goal to go with their 4 on 4 overtime winner. Finally, Pavelec had spectacular saves. While I could argue that juicy rebounds gave the Stars some of those great opportunities, Pavelec did make several cross crease slides or quick glove hand saves on almost certain goals. The goals he did allow were not of his own doing. The were either defensive breakdowns or deflections.
The Thrashers started slow taking a penalty in the first 2 minutes that resulted in the Stars first tally. Yet another game where they fell behind. Fortunately, they were able to answer back on a powerplay of their own when Kovalchuk got his 19th of the season. A powerplay opportunity later in the first presented the Thrashers with an opportunity for the lead but when 3 defenders converge on a single Star, he passed it to a wide open Lehtonen for an easy short-handed goal.
The Thrashers found a bit more jump in the second period and good puck movement resulted in goals by Slater (finally) and Antropov giving the Thrashers a brief lead. Dallas answered to make it a 3-3 tie at the end of 2.
Reasoner took a tripping penalty early in the 3rd and Dallas cashed in for a 4-3 lead. 4 minutes later, Afinogenov found himself alone beyond the Dallas defense for a breakaway. A Dallas player hauled him down for what I thought should have been a penalty shot but was simply a penalty (I need to review this rule today). However, justice was served as Afinogenov got the powerplay goal on some nice passing down low and we were tied once again.
Atlanta's Shubert was the victim of a poor call with 9 minutes left when he got tagged for holding when it was actually the Dallas player holding Shubert's stick. It didn't matter. This time the Thrashers got a short-handed goal when Peverly took a very nice Armstrong chip pass and turned it into a breakaway.
Unfortunately, things fell apart for the next several minutes. The Thrashers couldn't get the puck out of their end short of icing it. A timeout and several faceoffs didn't change things. You could sense the Stars were going to tie it up with one minute remaining. Sure enough they did when a deflection of a players face shield got the puck behind Pavelec (see video). From there the Thrashers were content to hold the puck and send it to OT.
The Thrashers controlled play in the 4 on 4 session. Some really nice puck movement in the Stars end provided just the opportunity they were looking for. An Afinogenov pass found Peverly in front of the net for nice redirection and the game winning goal. I headed to the exit satisfied that the team managed to grab 2 points they'll probably need when all is said and done.
Peverly and Pavelec got the 1st and 2nd stars of the game with Kovalchuk grabbing the third. Robidas, who played an excellent game for the Stars, fell victim to the home team bias.
Some other observations:
- I really like Shubert as the Thrasher's fifth defenseman. He plays excellent position, isn't afraid of contact and has the skills to help out on the offensive end. Another great waiver wire acquistion that I'm hoping will be around for a long time.
- Hedberg and Turco spent a good deal of time talking and laughing together in pre-game warmups. It was nice to see these former teammates together. Modano and Robidas also skated by and greeted Hedberg.
- If you cannot afford to have an "A" stitched on your Bogosian sweater, blue duct tape is NOT an acceptable solution even if you are a redneck.
- I want a hat that says "NO, I DO NOT WANT A 50/50 RAFFLE TICKET". I must have got asked 10 times while eating my dinner. I know your dog is cute. I know your cause is good. But honestly, this isn't any different than panhandling. I have an easier time getting the crackheads to steer clear of me than I do these people.
- It is only slightly more entertaining to watch a chicken fajita wrap, baby back ribs and a sirloin race around a hockey rink than giant pucks. Watching Thrash and the sumos check them face first to the ice is real entertainment. I wonder is Applebees has a missing tooth discount.
- On a related note. Can we please do away with the golfing one ice contest? If I wanted to watch golf, I'd stay home and watch Tiger's conquests....Get your mind out of the gutter.
- Why do cheerleaders have to carry pom-poms wherever they go? Do they not know what to do with the hands otherwise? Are they some sort of defensive weapon to fight off creepy 40 year olds?
- Who are these guys that decide an arena is the best place to propose marraige? Just once I wish on of the brides to be would say "Hell no! How dare you propose in front of thousands of strangers? We're only on our second date!"
- I'm give up trying to text the arena jumbotron. Apparently unless you say "Go Dawgs", "i luv u sally. you r a q t pi" or "Go THRASH!" it doesn't get up there. Instead, they'll show those same 3 over and over and over again.
That's it for this game. I'll be at Monday's contest against Montreal. I've got to practice up my "O Canada". At some point I need to learn the half-French half-English version.
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Thrashers Game Report - 11/28/09
Atlanta 1 - Philadelphia 0
Not a lot of offensive highlights in this one, but another fine performance by the Thrashers. Obviously, Peverly's 2nd period powerplay goal was the most significant event of the night but there are several others worth mentioning.
- Boulton set the tone for the contest early when he challenge Cote to a fight a little over two minutes in. Typical of Boulton he waited a bit before throwing his first punch. Once he unleashed, he pummeled Cote into submission and sent the message that the Thrashers weren't going to be pushed around in this contest. Judge for yourself.
- Hedberg played superb in net and was a deserving #1 star. He made several key saves early and held up as the Flyers peppered him with shots in the third.
- The penalty kill was fantastic. No small feat against a very good Flyer powerplay. All the penalties, especially late, made for some nervous moments but the Thrashers played very good positional hockey, got their sticks in lanes and fought hard for loose pucks.
- Neither team had much luck with the puck in this game. A lot of bouncing pucks couldn't be corralled and passes were just a bit off the mark. The passing decisions were great just the execution was the smallest bit off.
- The Thrashers finally beat a Philly team that had won 14 in a row against them. Here's hoping they can win the next 13 and even it up.
- There were a bunch of Flyer fans in attendance but they were pretty humbled by the result. More than one of them gave props to the Thrashers for a well played game. Must not have been a Philly native.
I took full advantage of the Thrashers 2 for 1 ticket offer over Thanksgiving weekend and purchased a bunch of tickets throughout December and January. That ought to keep the blog going for awhile.
Not a lot of offensive highlights in this one, but another fine performance by the Thrashers. Obviously, Peverly's 2nd period powerplay goal was the most significant event of the night but there are several others worth mentioning.
- Boulton set the tone for the contest early when he challenge Cote to a fight a little over two minutes in. Typical of Boulton he waited a bit before throwing his first punch. Once he unleashed, he pummeled Cote into submission and sent the message that the Thrashers weren't going to be pushed around in this contest. Judge for yourself.
- Hedberg played superb in net and was a deserving #1 star. He made several key saves early and held up as the Flyers peppered him with shots in the third.
- The penalty kill was fantastic. No small feat against a very good Flyer powerplay. All the penalties, especially late, made for some nervous moments but the Thrashers played very good positional hockey, got their sticks in lanes and fought hard for loose pucks.
- Neither team had much luck with the puck in this game. A lot of bouncing pucks couldn't be corralled and passes were just a bit off the mark. The passing decisions were great just the execution was the smallest bit off.
- The Thrashers finally beat a Philly team that had won 14 in a row against them. Here's hoping they can win the next 13 and even it up.
- There were a bunch of Flyer fans in attendance but they were pretty humbled by the result. More than one of them gave props to the Thrashers for a well played game. Must not have been a Philly native.
I took full advantage of the Thrashers 2 for 1 ticket offer over Thanksgiving weekend and purchased a bunch of tickets throughout December and January. That ought to keep the blog going for awhile.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Thrashers Game Report - 11/13/09
Atlanta 7 - Los Angeles 0
If Los Angeles had a NFL team, you might mistake that for a football score.
Instead, this was a hockey score and perhaps the best game in Atlanta Thrashers franchise history. It's unfortunate there weren't more people on hand to witness it. While the 400s section was pretty full with both veterans and newcomers, the rest of the building was pretty empty. I'm hoping some of those newcomers go home and tell their friends because this team deserves to play in front of larger crowds. I guarantee that a lot of those newcomers will return after the excitement they witnessed.
The game started off REALLY slow. Very few opportunities for either team through the first half of the contest. Neither goalie had to make substantial saves due to good defensive awareness in front of the net. The Thrashers have had some horrible starts at home, so I wasn't at all surprised by their conservative approach to the game.
Midway through the second period, the crowd was quiet, almost lulled to sleep by the 0-0 affair. That all change as rookie Kane circled the Kings net and went for the wraparound attempt. When the puck slipped by the Kings goalie, the place erupted. The arena wouldn't be silent again until the fans got in their cars.
Just two minutes later, the crowd jumped from their seats as Kovalchuk received a breakout pass from Afinogenov and was alone against goaltender Quick. While Kovy is an exceptional player, he's never had much luck on breakaways. This time he didn't disappoint the home town fans, delivering a 2-0 lead.
The torture of Quick wasn't done though. Next it was Bogosian with a wrister only 90 seconds later giving the Thrashers a 3-0 lead and sending Quick to the showers. His replacement got to feel the same pain as Kovalchuk returned the favor to Afinogenov setting him up for another breakaway that increased the lead to 4-0.
The Thrashers had sensed the Kings frustration and taken control of the game. All the Kings had left to do at this point was fight. All five skaters paired off in an extended melee which only fed the fan frenzy. As the Thrashers skated off the ice to end the second period an extended standing ovation showered them with some well deserved praise.
I was expecting to see play revert back to a conservative defensive style in the 3rd period but apparently the Thrashers were having way too much fun and were determined to entertain the home folk. Things got started again on the powerplay as Antropov fed Kovalchuk in his favorite high slot position. Before the goalie could react, the puck found the upper right corner of the net. Kovalchuk now had his 4th goal in the past 2 games since coming back from injury.
Kovy wasn't quite done. Once gain Kovy setup fellow Russian countryman Afinogenov with a long feed. Maxim turned on the jets and created another breakaway opportunity. This time he split two defenseman and put the puck in the net as he was being knocked down.
With a 6-0 lead late in the contest, the Thrashers found themselves shorthanded after a boarding call against Shubert. Even that didn't slow the Thrashers as yet another breakaway occurred when Kane found himself on the receiving end of a Peverly pass. He finished the play with his first shorthanded goal and first 2 goal game.
With 3 players at 2 goals each (Kovalchuk, Afinogenov, Kane) the crowd was on the edge of their seats waiting for a potential hat trick. There was also shutout to hold. With a powerplay opportunity in the last 2 minutes, I thought for sure the trio would see plenty of ice time. But Anderson was sticking to his guns and didn't feel the need to risk Kovy to reinjury (wise move). Instead the focus was on preserving the shutout and that they did. The first one of the season.
The crowd certainly left this contest with a great feeling. We'd witnesses a complete game from the Thrashers against another young upstart. They shined on both ends of the ice and played virtually error free hockey. I'm hoping their 3rd win in a row and second straight home win will serve notice to the city and get some more butts in the seats. It's a tough sell during football season but they certainly deserve some love at this point. I know I'll be heading back soon.
As I write this, the Thrashers have picked up another win on home ice. Their 4 game winning streak is the longest of the season and their offense and power play are among the best in the league. The penalty kill and overall defense are much improved. There is a lot to be excited about but many tests await. Tough games against Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit are coming up as well as games against divisional opponents Carolina and Tampa Bay. The press has already begun to notice this new Thrashers bunch and winning a few of those games will definitely put the rest of the league on notice.
If Los Angeles had a NFL team, you might mistake that for a football score.
Instead, this was a hockey score and perhaps the best game in Atlanta Thrashers franchise history. It's unfortunate there weren't more people on hand to witness it. While the 400s section was pretty full with both veterans and newcomers, the rest of the building was pretty empty. I'm hoping some of those newcomers go home and tell their friends because this team deserves to play in front of larger crowds. I guarantee that a lot of those newcomers will return after the excitement they witnessed.
The game started off REALLY slow. Very few opportunities for either team through the first half of the contest. Neither goalie had to make substantial saves due to good defensive awareness in front of the net. The Thrashers have had some horrible starts at home, so I wasn't at all surprised by their conservative approach to the game.
Midway through the second period, the crowd was quiet, almost lulled to sleep by the 0-0 affair. That all change as rookie Kane circled the Kings net and went for the wraparound attempt. When the puck slipped by the Kings goalie, the place erupted. The arena wouldn't be silent again until the fans got in their cars.
Just two minutes later, the crowd jumped from their seats as Kovalchuk received a breakout pass from Afinogenov and was alone against goaltender Quick. While Kovy is an exceptional player, he's never had much luck on breakaways. This time he didn't disappoint the home town fans, delivering a 2-0 lead.
The torture of Quick wasn't done though. Next it was Bogosian with a wrister only 90 seconds later giving the Thrashers a 3-0 lead and sending Quick to the showers. His replacement got to feel the same pain as Kovalchuk returned the favor to Afinogenov setting him up for another breakaway that increased the lead to 4-0.
The Thrashers had sensed the Kings frustration and taken control of the game. All the Kings had left to do at this point was fight. All five skaters paired off in an extended melee which only fed the fan frenzy. As the Thrashers skated off the ice to end the second period an extended standing ovation showered them with some well deserved praise.
I was expecting to see play revert back to a conservative defensive style in the 3rd period but apparently the Thrashers were having way too much fun and were determined to entertain the home folk. Things got started again on the powerplay as Antropov fed Kovalchuk in his favorite high slot position. Before the goalie could react, the puck found the upper right corner of the net. Kovalchuk now had his 4th goal in the past 2 games since coming back from injury.
Kovy wasn't quite done. Once gain Kovy setup fellow Russian countryman Afinogenov with a long feed. Maxim turned on the jets and created another breakaway opportunity. This time he split two defenseman and put the puck in the net as he was being knocked down.
With a 6-0 lead late in the contest, the Thrashers found themselves shorthanded after a boarding call against Shubert. Even that didn't slow the Thrashers as yet another breakaway occurred when Kane found himself on the receiving end of a Peverly pass. He finished the play with his first shorthanded goal and first 2 goal game.
With 3 players at 2 goals each (Kovalchuk, Afinogenov, Kane) the crowd was on the edge of their seats waiting for a potential hat trick. There was also shutout to hold. With a powerplay opportunity in the last 2 minutes, I thought for sure the trio would see plenty of ice time. But Anderson was sticking to his guns and didn't feel the need to risk Kovy to reinjury (wise move). Instead the focus was on preserving the shutout and that they did. The first one of the season.
The crowd certainly left this contest with a great feeling. We'd witnesses a complete game from the Thrashers against another young upstart. They shined on both ends of the ice and played virtually error free hockey. I'm hoping their 3rd win in a row and second straight home win will serve notice to the city and get some more butts in the seats. It's a tough sell during football season but they certainly deserve some love at this point. I know I'll be heading back soon.
As I write this, the Thrashers have picked up another win on home ice. Their 4 game winning streak is the longest of the season and their offense and power play are among the best in the league. The penalty kill and overall defense are much improved. There is a lot to be excited about but many tests await. Tough games against Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Detroit are coming up as well as games against divisional opponents Carolina and Tampa Bay. The press has already begun to notice this new Thrashers bunch and winning a few of those games will definitely put the rest of the league on notice.
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