Ohio Vacation

Ohio? Why Ohio?




I wanted to do another vacation with Crimson this summer and wanted to make sure it would be something she'd enjoy. Since she's such a big fan of roller coasters, I figured I take her to one of the best coaster parks in the world, Cedar Point, in Sandusky Ohio. The park contains 17 roller coasters in addition to other thrill rides and we were going to spend two days riding them all.



We flew into Cleveland and rented a car. Since we were in the area we decided to spend the afternoon at the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame. I was interested in looking at the memorabilia and hoped Crimson would learn a thing or two about the music I really like. While there were a lot of interesting items, I thought the organization of the place was a bit weak. It made it hard to find a particular band/artist of interest as well as pick a path to see it all. But there was plenty to see and I was most impressed with some of the Jimi Hendrix items and The Doors showcase. Although Crimson wasn't as interested as I was she did soak up a fact or two.

Here's a shot of her out in front of the Hall of Fame

Some large guitars inspired by some of the enshrinees.

We managed to see the entire place before it closed at 5:30 and then walked around the outside of the building a bit since it is located right on Lake Erie. I wasn't allowed to take pictures inside so I took more outside.

From Cleveland we headed the hour drive west to Sandusky. We spent the next couple nights at a hotel located about 15 minutes from the park. Fortunately, the weather cooperated and we only ended up using the hotel for the free breakfast and the beds.


We spent the entire day at the park the first day (10AM - 9:15PM) and most of the day the second day (10AM - 5:30PM). We rode all the roller coasters except 2 kiddie ones and gave a few a second run. The park was quite busy so a lot of lines were an hour plus. We encountered a few mechanical breakdowns but we enjoyed it a lot and got to do everything we set out to do.


We both liked Top Thrill Dragster a lot. This particular coaster pushes you up to 120MPH in 3.4 seconds and then sends you straight up in the sky 420 feet. A couple of twists and then it sends you right back down at 120MPH. The whole thing is over in less than 20 seconds but it was great fun.




Second favorite was probably Wicked Twister. This one speeds passengers in one direction and then straight up into a series of twists. Then, you head down backwards and up into another series of twists. This back and forth continues through a couple cycles. Hard to explain but an adreline rush and so smooth.




Other highlights included Millennium Force, Magnum XL-200 and Maverick (best new coaster of 2007 featuring a quick launch up a big hill and 95 degree drop!). We even took in some pinball at the old arcade where Crimson beat her Dad badly on South Park. Now she wants one added to her Christmas list.





I wasn't about to haul a camera around on rides all day so a park photographer will have to do. Terrible picture of me (nice smile?) but a good picture of Crimson.

Amicalola Falls Hike

This hike was quite a bit different from recent hikes. Instead of being isolated in the woods, I was at a location with lots of people. Instead of working my way through overgrown brush and switchbacks, I climbed a bunch of stairs.

Although the site was quite nice and the exercise was good, I doubt I would do this hike again. It simply lacks a lot of what I'm looking for when I set out to hike. The impact of a large number of visitors was clearly visible with litter, graffiti, and short cuts aplenty. A staircase is obviously needed when there are so many visitors but I'd much prefer a rougher setting.

This particular hike was relatively short at less than 2 hours with plenty of stops for photos. However, it was definitely challenging because of the huge number of stairs. The route up follows closely along the left (West) edge of the falls and offers some great views. There was an alternate route back down which didn't offer a view of the falls but did offer a few nice vistas and much more peace and quiet since most people take the same way down as up.

When you first start the climb you are greeted by the following sign. No big deal 175 steps doesn't sound too bad.


But by the top of those 175 I was feeling it. I was hot and bit winded. From this stop a nice view of the falls appears.
I was stopping here. My halfway point was at the top of the falls. The following sign is a LOT scarier after climbing the first 175 steps.


The next 425 weren't easy at all. About 2/3s up I thought I was going to puke my guts out. A brief rest did a world of good and I continued to the top. There isn't much of a view of the falls from the top because they drop really quick. The following shot is from the start of the trail heading back down the other side.

Robert Plant & Alison Krauss - Concert Review

I've seen tons of concerts in my life but as time goes by the number I attend from year to year drops off a bit. During the spring I thought this might be the first year since I was 16 that I didn't attend a concert.

Things changed due to the generosity of few friends/family. Last night was the first of my gifts. I was given seats to attend the Robert Plant & Alison Krauss concert at Chastain Park in Atlanta. This is one of my favorite venues in the area because the sound is generally good, its relatively small and intimate, the atmosphere is terrific and its outside. I figured it was about my 8th time seeing Robert Plant.

Each and every Plant concert is a little bit different. I've seen ones where he did only solo material. I seen ones where he played only Zeppelin material (with Jimmy Page) and I seen ones where he played a bit of both. In all these cases he's sounded great and been the undisputed front man.

This concert was a little different. With Allison Kraus a legend in the bluegrass genre they both had a significant impact in drawing fans to the venue. But this wasn't two greats trading the stage. Instead, it was two greats working together and sharing the limelight. I have to admit it was odd seeing Plant singing backup but I think that added to the charm.

As I wrote in my review of Raising Sand, their music and especially the combination of their two voices has a haunting quality. A unique blend of blues, bluegrass, rock and swing that is very entertaining as is mesmerizes. Kraus has an unbelievably strong voice and it comes forth with almost no effort. While her solo material doesn't really appeal to me, there is no denying she's very talented.

The concert consisted primarily of the two performing all their tracks from their Grammy winning album. Each track was performed exceptionally well with just enough ad-libs and rearrangements to surprise the crowd. The two took their turns on lead vocals leaving the other to sing backup, play maracas or simply dance around. Both artists look like they were enjoying themselves and they had great chemistry.

Both artists did have a chance to perform some songs from their solo/past careers. Krauss played about 3 songs while Plant mostly rested. Even T-Bone Burnett had a chance to play a tune of his own. Both singers sung together doing a great rearrangement of Zeppelin's "Black Dog", a spot on version of Zeppelin's "Black Country Woman" and Plant's "In The Mood". My personal highlight was their duet performance for Zeppelin's "Battle of Evermore". Although there were a few high notes Plant wisely adjusted, his and her voice were superb.

In the end it was a marvelous night. I know many in attendance would have like more Zeppelin tunes but that wasn't Plant's intention. He obviously enjoys working with Krauss and had no intentions of overshadowing her. I have a ton of respect for what Plant has done professionally post Zeppelin and I'll continue to support his efforts since I've enjoyed each and every one of them.

Next up is Stone Temple Pilots in mid-August. Here's hoping the band members can tolerate each other long enough to put on that show.

Jarrard Gap - Appalacian Trail Loop Hike

07/04/08

Another hike in the North Georgia mountains. This particular one was not terribly exciting as it offered very little to look at after leaving the area around Lake Winfield Scott. However, the hike was longer than any of my previous ones clocking in at close to 6 miles. I might fairly good time despite some fairly challenging sections during the first half. This was also one my hotter hikes as the temps were in the mid 80s, high humidity and little breeze.

A picture of Lake Winfield Scott

Appalachian Trail - Benton MacKaye Legacy Loop Hike

I looked forward to this hike because it included two significant locations in world of hiking. The first portion of the hike covered the Southern end of the 2100 mile Appalachian Trail. The Benton MacKaye portion of the trail included the first couple miles of this 290 mile long trail named after one of the founders of the Appalachian Trail.

Before I could make the hike, I had to get there and once again it was an adventure. My book listed two possible routes to the trailhead both of which included long sections of forest roads. The route I choose had a 5 mile section on FR-77. This road was just barely within the limitations of my low clearance two wheel drive vehicle. It was a narrow loose gravel road up a fairly steep incline with multiple switchbacks. Most of the drive was done at about 10MPH and I was always concerned another car would come around the corner from above resulting in accident. It took forever to finish the drive and my car was covered in thick dust but I did make it.

The trip was well worth it. A great hike with many different landscape features and 2 really nice expansive views of the surrounding mountains. I really got of sense of just how high up I was as there was a pretty steep drop off the sides of the trail during the first section of the hike. The Southern Terminus was a great spot to start/end the Appalachian Trail and two long hikers had set up a hammock to enjoy their accomplishment.

The Benton MacKaye portion of the hike didn't disappoint either. Although far less travelled there were plenty of nice features including huge fern fields, a great viewpoint and portion of the hike where it felt like I was walking in a tunnel due to the low tree cover.

Not looking forward to the drive back down the way I came up, I decided to venture out the other way. A good decision in the end. Although this route was quite a bit longer, the road wasn't quite as nerve racking although still more challenging then most drives. The only excitement on the drive back was the large deer spotted along the roadside.

This would be a great hike to recommend to someone ready for a 2 1/2 hour hike and looking for a good adventure on two significant trails.

First up are a couple of marker for the Southern Terminus of the Appalacian Trail

Then there's the view from the Terminus:

Marker for the start of the Benton MacKaye trail:

Finally a nice fern covered portion of the trail:

Atlanta Thrashers Free Agency

aka A Plan To Regain Respectability

Last season was a tough one for Thrasher fans. After coming off a playoff season, there was hope the Thrashers had turned the corner and had a brighter future ahead. But underneath the shiny exterior was a roster exposed for its weakness and one that only got weaker when Waddell traded future assets to make the push for the playoffs in 2007.

The 2007 offseason didn't make things much better. With no first round pick, a limited budget and the weight of overpaid previous acquisitions hanging over their head, acquisitions such as Todd White (oooh), Eric Perrin and Ken Klee were the trumpeted new arrivals.

White never managed to be the impact center fans or management hoped he'd be. Kozlov and Exelby couldn't come close to matching their previous seasons after agreeing to new contracts. Hossa struggled to find consistency amid swirling questions and rumors of his eventual departure from ATL. Holik and Zhitnik became cancers to the team with their poor on ice performance and lack of care about it. All this added up to disaster for a team that needed everyone to excel to even have a chance of sniffing the playoffs.

Kovy and Kari played their hearts out and Toby Enstrom made a significant impact in his first NHL season but it simply wasn't enough. In fact, it fell way short as the Thrashers flirted more with the worst record in the NHL than a spot in playoffs.

It is now officially time to put that behind us. 2008 brings new hope with a new coach, John Anderson, a stud defenseman as the 3rd overall draft choice and the weight of Holik, Rucchin, and reportedly Zhitnik's contracts now off the books.

I honestly don't think the Thrashers can turn this around quickly. It's time to build this team in a different mold. No longer can they afford to reach into the oldie bin in hopes of rekindling some magic from a tired soul. They must use the draft wisely and make moves to get the roster younger. Fill the roster with players on the rise. Look for untapped potential and make this team competitive in the long run. Play the youngsters and give them a chance to learn together. Moving Hossa for Armstrong, Christensen and a 1st round pick was a good start. Drafting Bogosian was another good move. Bringing in a coach who has worked with a lot of the young Thrashers makes a lot of sense. Now it is time to use free agency to further the course.

The Thrashers must avoid the temptation to improve in the short run by picking up any aging veterans. This means players like Sundin, Jagr, Roberts, etc. have no place here. We can use veterans to fill secondary roles, but not frontline ones.

First, lets look at the Thrashers roster:

Player Contract (unrestricted free agent at end of contract unless specified)

LW
Ilya Kovalchuk 2 YR $7.50M
Vyacheslav Kozlov 2 YR $3.85M
Brad Larsen 1 YR $550K
Brett Sterling RFA
Colin Stuart 2 YR $475

C
Bryan Little 2 YR $850K RFA
Jim Slater 1 YR $750K RFA
Eric Christensen 1 YR $750K RFA
Todd White 3 YR $2.35M
Eric Perrin 1 YR $750K

RW
Colby Armstrong 1 YR $1.20M RFA
Chris Thorburn 1 YR $535K RFA
Jordan LaVallee 1 YR $550K RFA

D
Niclas Havelid 1 YR $2.90M
Toby Enstrom 1 YR $750K RFA
Ken Klee 1 YR $1.25M
Boris Valabik 1 YR $925K
Garnet Exelby 2 YR 1.40M
Zach Bogosian 3 YR $$$ RFA
Ilya Nikulin ?????

G
Kari Lehtonen RFA
Johan Hedberg 2 YRS ???
Ondrej Pavelec 2 YRS $850,000

At left wing the Thrashers have one bonifide stud in Kovy and a third line player in Kozlov who'll definitely be on the roster opening night. Hope is that Kozlov can rebound from his horrible 08 season and that either Sterling or Stuart can show some improvement. It would be nice to add a bonfide 2nd line winger here but a RW and D priorities will probably trump that. Larsen really has no place on the team and only stands in the way of developing youth at this point. He is, however, the best defensively of the bunch.

There is a logjam at center but no true #1. Little and Christensen will be given every opportunity to win that job but both seem to be ideal 2nd or 3rd line guys. Kovy would benefit hugely from a playmaking centerman but somebody would probably have to be traded to make room. With so many of these guys up for free agency after this year I wonder if it doesn't make sense to pursue a top-line center now. It'd be great to move White but Perrin is probably the only one who'd garner interest.

Right wing is another weak spot. Once again the Thrashers lake a true first line player. They had one until Hossa skipped town but now the cupboard is stocked with few bodies and fewer prospects. This is a position the Thrashers must address in free agency or via trade. While I think Thorburn or Armstrong could play with Kovy, a better RW would make Kovy a 60 goal scorer and bring the PP numbers up as well. With the logjam at center it makes sense to throw a lot of money at a free agent at this position. Unfortunately, the list is weak.

Defense needs an overhaul once again. A team that gives up as many shots as this group is bound to end up with a lot of pucks in the net regardless of the goaltender. On the offensive side, they had a terrible time getting the puck past the center line and assisting in the offensive zone. Unfortunately, a lot of those same players are under contract for this season and it didn't look like there was much room to bring in youth or free agents. Fortunately, it looks like Waddell has finally come to his senses and waived Zhitnik. If rumors are correct, that paves the way for a serious improvement. I think Bogosian will have every chance to make the squad but at 18 it'll be a challenge. If he does that probably leaves only one spot left for a free agent. Might as well make it a good one. Nikulin is wild card. Nobody seems to know if the Thrashers can pry him loose from Russia but if they could he might even be ready for the NHL this season.

Goalie is about the only area without concern. Unless someone throws a large ($5M+) contract at Kari, the Thrashers are set at the position. They'll go with Kari as a starter and likely Hedberg as a backup. Pavelic would only benefit from another season in Chicago. Hedberg's two year deal was a bit of a suprise but makes sense when you consider how goalie injuries have hurt the Thrashers in past seasons. Hedberg could certainly be trade bait at the deadline if Pavelic continues to flourish.

Ideally the Thrashers could use the following in free agency:

1st line RW
Top 2 D
1st line C
Any LW (1st liners need not apply)

I think it is a toss up whether a RW or D should be top priority. Because the market is so thin at RW and there are a lot of defensemen who could improve the Thrashers, I'd be tempted to go RW first. However, it sounds like the Thrashers are focussed on D with Brian Campbell leading the way.

Lets start with RW. He's a edited list of free agents:

Player Age 08 Team 08 Salary
Jaromir Jagr 35 NYR $8.36M
Marian Hossa 28 PIT $7.00M
Pavol Demitra 32 MIN $4.50M
Miroslav Satan 32 NYI $4.50M
Todd Bertuzzi 33 ANA $4.00M
Michael Ryder 27 MTL $2.95M
Brian Rolston 34 MIN $2.43M
David Vyborny 32 CLB $2.20M
*Mark Recchi 39 ATL $1.75M
Radim Vrbata 26 PHX $1.23M
*Darren Haydar 28 ATL $463K

Correy Perry 23 ANA $621K RFA
Pierre-Marc Bouchard 24 MIN $2.60M RFA

I included a couple of restricted free agents (RFA) because they look extremely appealing. I don't think the price for signing them to significant offer sheets (multiple high picks) would be a good appoach but if their team is having trouble signing them (Perry) and/or wants to trade them (Bouchard) the Thrashers should seriously consider it. There isn't a RW available that would be a better fit in Atlanta than Perry and Anaheim would likely look East for any trade. Since Anaheim would only be doing it for salary reasons, prospects or draft choices could get the deal done. However, this is a bit of a dream scenario.

I think we can rule of Hossa and Jagr for obvious reasons. Bertuzzi might work but he'd be a short-term solution at best and would likely seek a cup contender. I actually like Vrbata the best of the bunch but would be satisfied with Demitra, Rolston or Ryder if the price is right. It is still very possible we could see Recchi or Haydar back in ATL but they won't significantly improve the team.

Now for D

D
Wade Redden 30 OTT $6.50M
Rob Blake 37 LAK $6.00M
Adam Foote 35 COL $4.60M
Mattias Norstrom 35 DAL $4.25M
Brad Stuart 27 DET $3.50M
Paul Mara 27 NYR $3.00M
Oleg Tverdovsky 31 LAK $2.50M
Marek Malik 32 NYR $2.50M
Bret Hedican 36 CAR $2.43M
Michal Rozsival 28 NYR $2.30M
Dmitri Kalinin 26 BUF $2.25M
Dick Tarnstrom 32 CLB $2.00M
Jason Smith 33 PHI $1.98M
Brian Campbell 28 SJS $1.75M
Mark Eaton 30 PIT $1.60M
Bryce Salvador 31 NJD $1.50M
Andrei Zyuzin 29 CHI $1.48M
John-Michael Liles 26 COL $1.40M
Karel Rachunek 27 NJD $1.40M
Richard Matvichuk 34 NJD $1.37M
Mike Commodore 27 OTT $1.30M
Jim Vandermeer 27 CAL $1.23M
Nolan Baumgartner 31 DAL $1.20M
Brooks Orpik 27 PIT $1.08M
Jan Hejda 29 CLB $1.00M
Ron Hainsey 26 CLB $900K
Joe DiPenta 28 ANA $700K
Alexei Semenov 26 SJS $650K
*Joel Kwiatkowski 30 ATL $600K
Mark Streit 29 MTL $600K

Jay Bouwmeester 24 FLA $2.18M RFA
Mike Green 22 WAS $833K RFA

OK, those RFAs are a complete dream. Florida will likely match any offer for Bouwmeester and Washington will do the same for Green unless they sign Campbell.

Blake, Foote and Norstrom aren't coming to ATL and that's fine by me as they are all well past their prime and short-term solutions at best. I think both Redden and Campbell are going to be overpaid. Of the two, Campbell would be a better fit here but I'm honestly hoping they only get into the bidding to drive his price up. I want a player who is more sound on the defensive end. Orpik and Rosival are my top picks to come to Atlanta and improve the defense. Getting both would be even better. Rosival can improve the power play and Orpik is a very good stay at home defenseman. Stuart and Hainsey are two other great options. I guess my main reason for staying away from Campbell is I'd rather see the Thrash grab two quality players for the long-term than just one. With 2 than could allow Bogosian to play at least a season in Chicago before playing in the NHL.

Centers

Sergei Fedorov 37 CLB $6.08M
Mats Sundin 36 TOR $5.50M
Alexei Zhamnov 36 BOS $4.10M
Doug Weight 36 STL $3.50M
Martin Straka 34 NYR $3.30M
Brendan Morrison 31 VAN $3.20M
Craig Conroy 35 CGY $2.85M
Daymond Langkow 30 CGY $2.44M
Bryan Smolinski 35 MTL $2.00M
Vaclav Prospal 32 TB $1.90M
Jason Williams 26 CHI $1.60M
Chris Gratton 31 TBL $1.50M
Mike Peca 33 CLB $1.30M
*Jason Krog 32 ATL $475K

Not really any first-line players here so the Thrashers will probably have to stay with what they've got at center. No reason to bring on more 2nd/3rd liners. I do like the IDEA of signing Federov because I think he's still got playmaking talent in him and would work well with Kovy. However, injury concerns don't merit the risk. Krog could be back in Atlanta since he can play RW and coach Anderson somehow made him a stud in the AHL.

Finally LWs

Markus Naslund 33 VAN $6.00M
Ladislav Nagy 28 LAK $3.75M
Ruslan Fedotenko 28 NYI $2.90M
Brendan Shanahan 38 NYR $2.50M
Gary Roberts 41 PIT $2.50M
Petr Cajanek 31 STL $2.00M
Sean Avery 27 NYR $1.90M
Cory Stillman 33 OTT $1.75M
Andrew Brunette 33 COL $1.60M
Matt Cooke 28 WAS $1.53M
Geoff Sanderson 35 EDM $1.50M
Scott Thornton 36 LAK $1.50M
Ryan Malone 27 PIT $1.45M
Kristian Huselius 28 CGY $1.40M
Martin Gelinas 37 NAS $1.25M
Jarkko Ruutu 31 PIT $1.15M
Jason Chimera 28 CLB $1.00M
Antti Miettinen 26 DAL $885K
Pascal Dupuis 28 PIT $880K*
Eric Boulton 31 ATL $525K

We'd be looking a depth more than anything else so hopes of reviving Nagy's career in ATL are probably not good. I think Malone will be well overpaid by someone and even though he could probably play RW, I don't think I want him near Blueland. Brunette would make a nice role player but I don't think we need another pee-wee in Blue. Dupois seemed to burn his bridges when he left and I really don't want Boulton back. Could Avery play on the same team as Kovy? Could Fedotenko be effective on the 3rd line? Looks like a bunch on longshots to me. Might as well go young. Just in case management is taking notes, I'd look at Chimera or Miettinen and hope they produce here.

In summary here's my plan:

D : Orpik/Hainsey - 4 yr $3.75M
D : Rosival/Stuart - 5 yr $4.0M

RW: Vrbata - 3yr - $3M
RW: Recchi - 1yr - $1.5M

LW: Chimera - 2 Yr - 1.75M

G : Kari 3 Yr 3.75M

I think that is pretty realistic and keeps the Thrashers a decent amount below the cap. Defense is set for this year and beyond and can afford to move a D is someone comes calling. Bogo can develop in Chicago. C is still a bit weak but we can't have everything. Use any leftovers to bring Krog and Haydar back if need be.

From a PR standpoint, all these signings don't make the splash that Campbell will make but I think they'll improve the team a lot more.

I'll be sure to follow up as signings begin July 1.

Bear Hair Gap Loop Hike

06/15/08

Lately I've been looking for a hike a bit long or more challenging. The problem is with 1 1/2 to 2 hours of driving on the front and back end of the hike, doing anything longer eats up almost a full day. With many interests competing for my time, some delicate balancing is required.

I figured I could fit in a good 3 hour hike as long as the drive wasn't too long. Bear Hair Gap fit that description pretty well. This particular trail started at Vogel State Park, a beautiful facility feature a nice lake, ample camping, putt-putt, volleyball courts and more. Looked like a great place to bring kids and on this Father's Day it was very active.

In contrast, the hike was quite quiet. I only saw two other groups, one at the beginning and one at the end of my hike. The hike itself forms a loop going uphill to a nice vista overlooking the park before heading back down and around to return to the park. Most of the challenging parts were early and featured some rough bedrock trails. Although I didn't see any bears there were more than a few signs warning of their presence.

I enjoyed the hike quite a bit but was a little disappointed I finished in only 2 hours. Perhaps it was because I maintained a fast pace or because I didn't stop. In the future I might come back again and try some of the other trails including Coosa Trail which clocks in at almost 13 miles.

A couple photos from the trail:

Stanley Cup Finals - Review

Another NHL season has come to a close and what a fabulous ending it was. Nice to see my favorite team come out on top for the 4th time in 11 seasons. Although the series against the Pens started off looking like a serious mismatch, by the end of it the Pens had gained some respectability and made the finals interesting for even the casual observer.

What the finals showed is that experience really matters. What the Pens sorely lacked, the Wings had in droves all throughout the roster right up to the top of management. Few NHL teams rise to the top without first experiencing some setbacks. The lessons the Pens have learned from this series will go a long way towards getting them back and having another shot in years to come. The question now becomes, can they keep the team together?

As a Thrasher fan, there was some satisfaction to be gained seeing Hossa come up short at the end. His desire to leave Atlanta and take a few pot shots on the way out didn't sit too well with me. Seeing him sitting against the boards in disbelief as his team fell short didn't bring me one ounce of pain. He'll get his big payday this summer because he is a very effective player. I just hope that the assets Atlanta got in return can somehow make up for the pain/grief he cause here last season.

The Wings put on quite a display throughout the playoffs and left little doubt that they were the best team this season. Zetterberg finally got the recognition he deserved and showed why I picked him as an MVP candidate prior to the season. I guess my signals were just a little crossed as he came home with the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) instead. Two other players certainly deserved mention for the Conn Smythe, Osgood and Franzen. Osgood was a savior of sorts, relieving Hasek and bringing with him a sense of calm the permiated the team and got them back on track. Franzen, even though he missed a handful of games with concussion symtoms, lead all players in playoff goals continuing the hot streak that started in March. He'll be a major force for the Wings for the next several years and I'm predicting here he'll subplant Holmstrom on the top unit next fall.

Those Wings couldn't have done it alone though. Their defense was incredible, completely shutting down Pittsburgh and others while contributing on the scoring sheet. Lidstrom's effort goes without saying and Rafawski wasn't far behind. Stuart and especially Kronwall raised their level of play once the playoffs began. The defensive play of forwards like Datsyuk, Samuelsson, Draper, Helms, Cleary and more played a critical role. Babcock has created a very sound, disciplined unit that plays as a team better than any other. I'm anxious to see what he can do with even more talent coming up through the system.

Enough gloating about the team. Time to gloat about my predictions again. First, I picked Detroit to win the President's Trophy and Stanley Cup way back in early October. Then, I stayed with that pick as the playoffs began. Although these might seem like the picks of a homer, I don't always pick with my heart. If I did the Thrashers would have been cup finalists. In fact, I hadn't picked the Wings to be in the cup finals for a few seasons. Based on last years playoffs, I had a feeling things were headed in the right direction.

Detroit #1 vs Pittsburgh #2
PREDICTION : Detroit in 7
Confidence : 55%
RESULT : Detroit in 6

Best Observation : "Detroit has two super forwards to counter with in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Although not the marketing magnets that Crosby is, both are just as skilled or more so. In fact, both of these players are also excellent defenders, a level above the likes of Crosby and Malkin." - Zetterberg's play on a 5 on 3 penalty kill cemented his place as an NHL elite player. Malkin was a non-factor.

Bad Observation : "Intangibles - Edge Pittsburgh" - The biggest intangible was the experience factor. How I could overlook this one is beyond me. Had I given proper respect, my confidence would have been higher.

---------------------------------------------

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55
Return : 110
Profit : 55
Rate of return : 55/55 = 100%

Playoffs
Bet : 1015
Return : 1440
Profit : 425
Rate of return : 41.9%

Alright. That does it. Next year I'm betting these for real. Of course, that'll be the season the Thrashers upset Pittsburgh, Edmonton sweep Detroit and Phoenix ousts the Sharks.

You'd think there'd be time for some rest now that the season is complete. I'll rest when I'm dead. Free agency is in a week and I've got a few opinions on what the Thrashers should do to fix their mess and get back into the playoffs.

Crimson's Bathroom - Complete

This one went a lot smoother than the master bedroom and turned out a bit better. I learned a lot from the first go around and those lessons resulted in easier wallpaper removal, less drywall repair, better dust control and better taping.

Crimson was thrilled with the final results. She no longer has to stare at blue and fishes as she washes her face, cleans her teeth or styles her hair.

This picture is of the shower / toilet area.

Cooper Creek Hike

This hike was distinctly different than recent ones. I was looking for a less travelled trail and that is exactly what I got. Although well marked and easy to follow, it was pretty obvious that few hikers come to this trail, especially the rear section. Most of the trail was single track with plenty of overgrowth. Since I never saw another person during my entire 2 1/2 hours of hiking, it made for great setting. Although there were no vistas or waterfalls to see, the terrain itself was fairly interesting.

Having heard/read the warnings of black bears, I took them fairly seriously. The last thing I wanted was to have confrontation with one of these huge animals. I made sure to be fairly vocal and keep my eyes and ears open. However, that didn't stop me from being surprised by two hogs. These aren't your friendly domestic pigs. Pretty damn scary actually. They were quite big and moving fast. By the time I was able to spot them, they were already 200 feet away. Wish I could have got a picture but they weren't sticking around for a photo op.

The trail itself had enough uphill sections to be a nice workout. It breaks from the deep woods for a small section that follows a forest road. He's a shot along that road.

Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

Finally, after near 100 games each between the regular season and the playoffs, we are down to two teams chasing the greatest trophy in sports. What happened in the regular season is barely a memory and even the first round on the playoff feels like ages ago.

The final two participants is no surprise to me. Back a the beginning of the playoffs, I predicted a Wings vs Penguins matchup in the final. In fact, I picked the Wings since the beginning of the season. Both teams had their share of ups and downs. The Penguins got off to a slow start and suffered and injury to their leader, Crosby and their goalie Fluery. But Malkin and Conklin step up big time and helped the Penguins get to the playoffs. The Wings suffered through a 10 game losing stretch when 4 of their defensemen were out but ended the season recapturing the winning ways so frequent in the first half.

Both teams steamrolled playoff opponents. Although both suffered minor setbacks, they never trailed in any series. They typically out shot and outworked opponents and had big contributions from secondary players. Both teams look to be worthy contenders for the big prize.

As a Red Wings fan, the matchup with Pittsburgh scares me more than any matchup so far. Pittsburgh's got a ton of offensive firepower and they are playing strong team defense in front a young confident goalie. From my perspective, the series could go either way. The one thing I really don't expect is a short series. A sweep could happen by either side but I'd put the chance of that at less than 5%.

I'm not going to let me fear keep me from predicting what I've been predicting since the beginning of the season.

Detroit #1 vs Pittsburgh #2
PREDICTION : Detroit in 7
Confidence : 55%

How'd I come up with that prediction? Let me break it down a bit.

Forwards - Edge Pittsburgh - With Crosby, Malkin and Hossa have a powerful trio. A good combination of playmakers, strength with the puck and pure finishers. They can dazzle with skill or scrap it down low. On top of that Pittsbugh has more than its share of secondary scoring from guys like Malone, Staal and Roberts. Detroit throws has two super forwards to counter with in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Although not the marketing magnets that Crosby is, both are just as skilled or more so. In fact, both of these players are also excellent defenders, a level above the likes of Crosby and Malkin. The Wings have decent secondary scoring but their prime-time chip, The Mule (Franzen) will be out for at least one contest with concussion like symptons.

Defense - Edge Detroit - Detroits top four are probably the best in the league. They carry the puck and start the offense better than any on the Pittsburgh roster. Add to the highly recognizable Lidstrom/Rafalski a healthy Kronwall bringing the big hits and chipping in points and the trade deadline acquisition Stuart. These four are better than anything the Pens can put out there. Although Gonchar can look impressive at times, I seriously doubt he'd crack the top 4 in Detroit. Detroit other forwards are also play great defense, something the Pens may have difficulty matching.

Goalie - Even - Two goaltenders at opposite ends of their respective careers but playing similar games. Both are cool, calm and collected and aren't easily frazzled. Osgood relieved Hasek and the team never looked back. While he doesn't face as many shots as Fluery, he makes the big save when called upon. Osgood has more experience playing at this level having won a cup before in 1998 and Fluery has been extraordinary this post-season. Both have sound technical skills and play the puck with confidence. Should either falter, adequate backups are available.

Power Play - Edge Pittsburgh - Getting all three of those super forwards on the ice at one time makes for a pretty scary power play and thus a notch better than the Wings. But the Wings have more scoring prowess from the blue line so they aren't far behind. Detroit has two of the best front of the net players in Holmstrom and hopefully Franzen. If Fluery and the Pens can't deal with them, this edge will push back Detroits way.

Penalty Kill - Edge Detroit - When you have great defense and nearly ALL your forwards are good defenders, you'll have an excellent penalty kill. While Crosby and Malkin are taken off the ice when their team is down a man, Zetterberg and Datsyuk stay out there. Not only does that limit opponents opportunities but it creates scoring opportunities for Detroit. Short-handed goals are a real threat in Detroit. Although Pittsburgh has many of the same qualities in ex-Thrashers Hossa and Dupois, those qualities don't run as deep as they do in Detroit.

Coaching - Edge Detroit - I'll say it. Babcock is the best coach in a league full of many good coaches. When critics around the league predicted a fall by the Wings, Babcock retooled the roster to be more physical, hard-working and defensive minded. He preached defense as a way to create offense and did it without stifling the skills of Zetterberg or Datsyuk. He dealt with Osgood replacing Hasek in the perfect way and integrated Stuart into a lineup with hardly skipping a beat. He isn't afraid to juggle lines or to roll all four to wear down opponents. He's been to this level before and knows what it takes to win.

Intangibles - Edge Pittsburgh - The pressure is on Detroit a bit more because they start at home and are expected to win the cup. All Pittsbugh needs to do is win one in Detroit to create some nice momentum. Although many of the penalties are deserved, there are times when it looks like the league is out to protect Crosby and his marketing image above all else. The refs haven't exactly been friendly to the Wings duo that works so hard in front of the net.

That's it I can't think of any more to add. Now get out your cell phone, call Guido and put down 5 clams on the Wings. Just do it knowing, I'll erase all traces of this post if things go bad.

Duke Creek Falls Hike

After walking the Raven Cliff Falls Hike, I still had plenty of energy so I decided to hit another hiking spot less than 2 miles away. This hike was shorter but a bit more challenging than the last simply because the grade was steeper. The trail itself was very wide, level and well maintained. In fact, there were steps with rails along the first 1/3 of the route.

The trail did a series of long switchbacks leading down a mile to the base of spectacular falls which dropped 250 feet. It was a view well worth the hike. After doing this hike at a fairly quick pace, I was definitely worn out for the day upon my return to the top. The hike took about 45 minutes total including a couple quick pictures.

Raven Cliff Falls Hike

Off for another hike in the North Georgia mountains. After a bit of debate I decided to do a 2 1/2 hour hike on this day because I wanted to do this location when there were less people around. I had the Friday off of work before the Memorial Day weekend so I hit the road around 9:30.

The Raven Cliff Falls hike follows a creek throughout its journey and feature many flat areas that make for excellent camping sites just off the beaten path. The stream features numerous small falls, a couple of medium falls and one really nice falls has created a huge chasm in the surrounding rocks.

This particular hike was described as "moderate" but I found it to be rather easy. The only tricky part was the last 60 feet that required some careful steps to ascend to the best view of the great falls.

Georgia Aquarium

Took another trip to the Georgia Aquarium. It was my third trip since it opened and although nothing has changed, it was still enjoyable. It's a great place to take out of town visitors and/or kids.

The featured fish is the large whale shark.

Here's Mom and Crimson seated outside the aquarium with a small piece of Atlanta's skyline in the background.

More Wallpaper Fun

With the master bathroom now behind me, it was time to start in on Crimson's bathroom. She's a little tired of the fish wallpaper and frankly it doesn't match her bubblegum pink walls. So down with the wallpaper and up with the paint.

Much like the master bathroom, Crimson's bathroom had two layers of wallpaper to remove. In fact, there was a third layer used as border. Here's a look at the before pictures.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3 Review

We know bid ado to the Stars and Flyers as they head to the golf course and make way for what should be a very entertaining Stanley Cup final. First, a review of the last rounds' predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. " - This and many of my other statements were spot on. Philly never managed to establish much momentum in the series and was beat by a stronger team.

Bad observation : "The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe." - Except for game 5 Philly's offense didn't find much flow and never put much pressure on the Pittsburgh defense that was strong and stready. I probably should have predicted a shorted series but I thought Pittsburgh's defense would face a bit more of challenge.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation: "I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. " - I think we saw all this play out in the series. Detroit simply had too much talent for Dallas to matchup against consistently night after night. Zetterberg and Datsyuk killed the Stars and Detroits penalty killing prowess erased any Dallas advantage.

Bad observation : Any observation about the "Mule" while perhaps accurate was pretty much moot as the Mule didn't play at all in the series.

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Winners in both series. Exact number of games in the Detroit series

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 80 + 80
Return : 160 + 160
Profit : 160
Rate of return : 160/160 = 100%

Playoffs
Bet : 960
Return : 1330
Profit : 350
Rate of return : 36.5%

Maybe I should quit my day job and become a full-time hockey gambler. Are there any summer leagues or Southern hemisphere leagues I can track after the finals?

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

Here we are only a day a way from the conference finals. Two somewhat surprising teams await two very skilled teams in what should be some very interesting matchups. Much of the spotlight will be on the teams from Detroit and Pittsburgh and rightfully so. However, Philadelphia and Dallas shouldn't be overlooked as the both played very good hockey to get to this point.

Without further ado, I now present my predictions. Feel free to quote these fine points on your way to your bookie. Just don't expect me to back you up when you lose your home based on the information contained within.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%

Let's face it, few expected Philadelphia to make it this far. Even though I might have predicted it, I never expected the relative ease with which Philly accomplished it. Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. First and foremost, the defense must tighten up. They cannot afford to continue to allow the opposition to get so many shots on goal. Goaltending will be tested and anything short of a superb performance by Biron will mean a quick end to the Flyers' season. The team must play even more disciplined against at team that has more skill, finesse and strength than the Habs or the Caps and does a much better job of uping the physical play when necessary. Stupid penalties would be the quickest way for the Flyers to dig a hole. Starting on the road could be a huge benefit as I don't think the Igloo is such a tough place to steal a win. All the pressure is on Pittsburgh and that pressure will only mount should they head to Philly with a loss. The power play must continue to prosper against a Penguins' defense that has been much sounder than anticipated. Secondary scoring must continue.

While the Flyers need to play better to win, Pittsburgh must only maintain their high level to reach the finals. I think there is reason to believe many Penguins, especially Crosby, can be even more effective in this series. The Flyers have some difficulty matching up with the multiple skill lines the Penguins can roll. They'll be forced to pick their poison as it is pretty hard to contain both the Malkin and Crosby lines. The Penguins power play can be a difference in the series as I have a feeling the Flyers will give them one too many opportunities. The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe. Fluery must show he can face the extra challenge and prove he's the one to carry the team forward for years to come.

As with most series, it'll all come down to taking advantage of the other teams mistakes. I simply believe the Penguins have a few more tools to both cause those mistakes and finish the job. Expect the Flyers to come out strong and try to knock the Penguins off their finesse game. How the Penguins respond early could dictate the tempo of the series. The series has the potential to be very exciting with a nice little intra-divisional and intra-state hatred sprinkled in. It's a shame Gagne isn't healthy or the teams would be evenly matched. Regardless of the outcome, the Flyers season is certainly a success to have gotten this far. Of course, one step closer would be even sweeter. Perhaps next year Flyer fans.

WESTERN CONFRENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%

Both these teams are playing at a very high level and the series will probably be decided by the team that can continue to play that way. But both teams have been playing well all season and are anchored by veterans and strong coaches who won't allow a dropoff.

Detroit has found another offensive juggernaut and you can now bow down to "The Mule". Yet another Swede to add to arsenal, Franzen hasn't just been on a tear since the beginning of the playoffs. It all started back at the beginning of March and has resulted in 29 goals over his last 26 games. To get some perspective, Franzen has broken two long standing Wings records held by the great Gordie Howe. First Franzen had 9 game winning goals in March. Then, the Mule had 9 goals in the playoff series against the Avs and that was in only 4 games. His 9 goals were as many as the entire Avs team and included 2 hat tricks. Now the Mule reaps the benefit of playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zettterberg from time to time but he is also becoming a natural a getting the puck in the net. His 9 goals came from a variety of locations on the ice and using a lot of nice stickwork.

Of course, the Wings production doesn't stop there. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are having a great playoffs and are showing the hockey nation why they are both Selke finalists. With finalists in the Lady Byng (Datsyuk), Norris (Lidstrom) and Adams (Babcock) plus the Jennings (Osgood/Hasek) and President's trophy already in the bad, the Wings could be looking at a lot of hardware in the coming weeks. However, every nominee will tell you it all means nothing unless they bring home the Stanley Cup. For that task they'll need to continue to get production out of players like Draper, Hudler, Cleary, Kronwall and Filpulla. This round will be an even tougher task for Osgood as he likely face more scoring chances. The Wings will do their best to dictate tempo and play to their strengths with puck possession and creative playmaking.

Dallas is no slouch. The fact that they dispatched Anaheim and San Jose speaks for itself. Doing it with such precision and determination makes them a formidable opponent. They don't have a glaring weakness on the roster and they play as unit better than any team in the league. They don't make many mistakes and they've been great at capitalizing when the opponent breaks down. Morrow has shown an uncanny knack for the timely goal and Turco has left his doubters behind. Their special teams are among the best and they work as hard as any team. But is it enough?

I lean towards Detroit not just because of my heart but because I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. About the only area that might be a push is goaltending. However, I think Osgood is playing better than he has his entire career. Turco has yet to get over the hump that is the Detroit Red Wings having a miserable record against them and never had a win in Detroit!

Dallas does have a shot though but it depends on getting a win in Detroit in game 1 or 2. Turco has to stand on his head and Dallas has to take advantage when Detroit's 5th & 6th defenseman are on the ice. Dallas has to hope like hell that the Mule can be cooled off and Dallas certainly can't afford even a single injury. Be patient as hell and wait for their opportunity. Don't get forced into playing Detroit's game. Play for OT and hope for the timely goal.

This series will be a battle for both teams. More of a chess match than the Eastern Conference with undoubtedly better defense and likely a lot of tight games. I don't see Dallas backing down easy, just coming up short.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2 Review

Another round is complete. Really an odd round in that 3 of the 4 matchups saw one team race out to a 3-0 lead. I thought maybe one of the teams would overcome the 3-0 deficit but that scenario came to a screeching halt after a 4 OT marathon in Dallas. There was one dominating sweep, a couple of upsets but no major drama.Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
RESULT - Philadelphia in 5

Good observation : "I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct." - Usually trusting my gut over my brain gets me into big trouble. Not this time.

Bad observation : "I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners." - Montreal never captured any significant momentum in the series and Philly just kept responding when called upon.

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
Result - Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on." - Malkin scores 2 big goals in game 3 which essentially ices the series and Hossa gets 2 goals including the series clincher in OT in game 5. Lundqvist did well but not well enough to offense Pittsburgh's talent. With the exception of the following, just about about all my observations on this series were pretty good.

Bad observation : "I think this series has got the makings of a classic". - The Rangers blew a chance for this series to be a classic when the blew a 3-0 lead in game 1.

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Detroit in 4

Good observation(s)

1. "If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick." - Samuelsson scores 2 in game 4 and the Wings sweep.
2. "Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast." - Can I have some jam with my toast?
3. "Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he is certain to face much more pressure." - He didn't play better and look what happened. Has a starting goalie ever been pulled 3 times in a 4 game series?

Bad observation: "Detroit in 6" - I should have had more confidence in what was truly a mismatch. Colorado had been playing over their heads for weeks. Once they faced some real competition they wilted.

SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Dallas in 5

Good observation: "San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars" - San Jose played inconsistent and dug themselves a hole which they couldn't overcome against a solid team.

Bad observation: "San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle" - Dallas can match up with anybody. Time and time again hardworking consistent play has beaten out top-talent in Stanley Cup playoff history.

---------------------------------

Winners in 3 of 4. Only the San Jose - Dallas contest played out much differently than I expected. But that series was pretty evenly matched and probably could have gone the other way had Dallas not captured the first two games in the Shark Tank.

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55 + 75 + 80 + 80 = 290
Return : 110 + 150 + 80 + 0 = 340
Profit : 50
Rate of return : 50 /290 = 17.2%

Playoffs
Bet : 820
Return : 1010
Profit : 190
Rate of return : 23.2%

Time to find a bookie. Screw the 401-K and 529. I'm putting everything on Thrashers to win the cup next year.

De Soto Falls Hike

Time for my next hike, this one in the De Soto Falls recreation area in North Georgia. I picked out a short hike for this trip as I had a busy schedule this particular Sunday. Part of the adventure is this particular trip was just getting there.

When I got within a few miles of my final destination, I encountered a roadblock. Someone had been seriously injured/killed on the road ahead and cops were redirecting traffic. The problem was I didn't know an alternate route to my destination. My iPhone came to the rescue. With the aid of the iPhone and Google maps I was able to find a way around the closed section of road.

I found my first turn with little problem and managed to find the next as well but then things got a bit tricky. At a fork in the road I continued straight since this best matched the map. Unfortunately, the road quickly narrowed into a single lane dirt road with plenty rough patches. I stuck it out for a bit being careful to navigate the rough spots in my low clearance car. I couldn't help but think that I wasn't too many miles from where Deliverance was filmed.

I started to think I was on a long driveway and not on a road. Since I noticed someone behind me, I pulled over a bit at an opening and they assured me I was on the right route. Another 1/2 mile of rough road and I was back on the main highway.

The hike was pretty easy, very "kid-friendly" next to a decent campground. The nice falls at the end of the hikes make for a great reward. The hike splits into two separate paths. One trail leads to the middle falls and one to the lower falls. Both paths follow a nice stream and are well maintained with even a couple benches thrown in for resting. The hike to the upper falls was the easier of the two and only 3/4 mile in length. The hike to the lower falls is less than 1/2 mile but a little steeper. I did the whole thing in just about an hour including the stops at both ends.

Here's a view of the middle falls:

Here's a view of the lower falls:

Crimson's Sports Banquet

Last Monday was the annual sports banquet held at Crimson's school. For each sport, pins are awarded for participation and awards are presented to the Most Valuable Player, Most Improved and Best Sportmanship.

Crimson participated in 4 sports (Volleyball, Basektball, Soccer and Cheerleading) and won the Best Sportsmanship award in 3 of the 4. She took home a boatload of hardware:

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE


MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%


I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct.


Montreal had their problems against Boston on both the offense and defensive ends of the ice but I'm guessing they get a more consistent effort in round 2 after getting the first round under their belts. Their power play floundered but Philly will likely give them plenty of opportunities to work through it. I expect Montreal to come out flying and try to expose Philly's somewhat shallow defense. A top-level performance out of Biron early will be a key to keeping this series close. Montreal will almost certainly have a couple of lop-sided wins in the contest. The main question will be how the Flyers respond.


The Flyers will look to intimidate in any way possible. Hard checking and disciplined hockey will have to be the norm even more so than in the Capitals series. Getting bodies in front of the young Habs goalie and getting the ugly goals will keep the series close. The power play must continue its high level of performance, a task that'll be much more difficult against the more disciplined Canadiens who play quite well on the penalty kill.


I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners. The pressure is all on Montreal this series and if the Flyers can pull out a win in Montreal, the young Habs just might cave. Like most series, goaltending will be key. Which Price will show up?


PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%


I think this series has got the makings of a classic. Two up and coming teams loaded with old and new stars. One team with a very good offense and another team with sound defense and excellent goaltending. Neither team has a glaring weakness and each weakness is a strength on the opposing roster. Which team is ready to rise to the occasion and take the next step. The Penguins are almost certain to find themselves in this round for years to come. The Rangers could be at a crossroad with Jagr, Shanahan and defensemen without contracts beyond this season. Will that add extra motivation for the Rangers?


The Penguins are a threat to score with just about every offensive possession. Players like Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar make it difficult enough 5 on 5. The Rangers cannot afford to make in 5 on 4. That means a player like Avery will have to control himself. Stupid penalties could be the difference in this series.


The Rangers will play it close to the vest, trying to get the Penguins to play a slow-tempo, hard-hitting affair. A 2-1 game is a much better formula for Ranger success than 5-4 because the Rangers have had difficulties scoring throughout much of the season. The Rangers will need timely goals and they've certainly got the crew for that with Shanahan, Jagr, Gomez and Drury leading the way. But if the Penguins can control that group (notice I didn't say stop), the Rangers will be stressed to find secondary scoring. Fluery needs to handle Avery in front of the net but he can't do it alone. His defense will have to do its work to make sure he isn't a factor.


I think we'll see some close contests and the OTs the Rangers missed in the first round. Will the usual scorers show up in OT or will new legends be born.


I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


It's turn back the clock time. Forsberg, Sakic, Foote, McCarty, Maltby, Osgood, Lidstrom, Chelios. Screw all that. This is 2008 and I'm not interested in the past. The reality of the situation is that these are distinctly different teams from their last playoff series many moons ago.


Colorado might be trying to relive the past but the Wings have moved on. Fresh blood abounds in Detroit where players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen and others are looking to make their own mark on Red Wings hockey history.


Detroit is the better defensive team. From the forwards on back they play sound defensive hockey. There were times during the Nashville series where they simply couldn't get the puck past the blueline or get a shot on goal for LONG stretches. The only thing that kept Nashville in the series was a couple mental lapses by an aging Hasek and outstanding goaltending by Ellis. With Osgood taking over in net, they don't have to worry as much. His mind doesn't wander and neither do his legs. The Wings defense feels more confident playing in front of him because they know what to expect. Osgood's all-star season was no fluke. He's been playing his best hockey the last 3-4 years.


Detroit can roll four forward lines and Foote can't be out there for all of them. Look for Babcock to consider splitting up Zetterberg and Datsyuk at some point in the series to exploit the matchup problems it creates. The fourth line played extremely well in the Nashville series and I don't see why that can't continue. If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick. Hudler seems to be coming into his own this post season.


Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast. The Wings will recognize this and come after them hard, something Minnesota failed to do for some reason. Stasny cannot afford to have another insignificant series. Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he's is certain to face much more pressure.


Colorado has done well to make it to this point but I don't think they can play much better. Detroit can play better than they did in round 1. Detroit is leaps and bounds better than Minnesota, especially on the offensive end. Colorado's best chance would be to get to Osgood early and make Babcock put Hasek back in. From there, who knows what'll happen.


SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars. San Jose can roll four hardworking lines but at times they struggle to get secondary scoring. The city of San Jose is excited about hosting another playoff round but in the backs of their minds and the backs of the player minds are past failures in getting beyond the second round. They have the pieces in place it is simply a matter of execution and discipline.


Meanwhile, the pressure is off the Stars. They've managed to beat one of the teams many had picked to win the cup and the did it in fairly decisive fashion. An opportunistic team that plays well with the lead as is backed by solid goaltending. Its a team full of role players but few superstars. The Stars best chance is for Turco to play his best, get Zubov healthy and get big performances out of Robiero (sp?), Richards and even Modano. Stealing a game in the Shark tank early would be huge.


San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle. They've got more offensive power than the Ducks and play a physical yet disciplined game. The key for them is to get their big stars (Thorton, Marleau) involved in the contest and to stay focused throughout the series.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Review

Whew. The first round is finally over and the Wings have advanced. First round always seems to be the most challenging as teams have to adjust a bit to a new level of play and intensity. Plus, top teams have to deal with the added pressure of meeting lofty expectations. I think that is why you see some significant upsets in round 1 and this year was no different.

Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7

Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.

Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.

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PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4

Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.

Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.

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WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7

Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.

Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.

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NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5

Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.

Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.

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DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.

Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".

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SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7

Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.

Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.

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MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6

Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.

Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.

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ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6

Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!

Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.

Taking the confidence factor into account:

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%

I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.