Bear Hair Gap Loop Hike

06/15/08

Lately I've been looking for a hike a bit long or more challenging. The problem is with 1 1/2 to 2 hours of driving on the front and back end of the hike, doing anything longer eats up almost a full day. With many interests competing for my time, some delicate balancing is required.

I figured I could fit in a good 3 hour hike as long as the drive wasn't too long. Bear Hair Gap fit that description pretty well. This particular trail started at Vogel State Park, a beautiful facility feature a nice lake, ample camping, putt-putt, volleyball courts and more. Looked like a great place to bring kids and on this Father's Day it was very active.

In contrast, the hike was quite quiet. I only saw two other groups, one at the beginning and one at the end of my hike. The hike itself forms a loop going uphill to a nice vista overlooking the park before heading back down and around to return to the park. Most of the challenging parts were early and featured some rough bedrock trails. Although I didn't see any bears there were more than a few signs warning of their presence.

I enjoyed the hike quite a bit but was a little disappointed I finished in only 2 hours. Perhaps it was because I maintained a fast pace or because I didn't stop. In the future I might come back again and try some of the other trails including Coosa Trail which clocks in at almost 13 miles.

A couple photos from the trail:

Stanley Cup Finals - Review

Another NHL season has come to a close and what a fabulous ending it was. Nice to see my favorite team come out on top for the 4th time in 11 seasons. Although the series against the Pens started off looking like a serious mismatch, by the end of it the Pens had gained some respectability and made the finals interesting for even the casual observer.

What the finals showed is that experience really matters. What the Pens sorely lacked, the Wings had in droves all throughout the roster right up to the top of management. Few NHL teams rise to the top without first experiencing some setbacks. The lessons the Pens have learned from this series will go a long way towards getting them back and having another shot in years to come. The question now becomes, can they keep the team together?

As a Thrasher fan, there was some satisfaction to be gained seeing Hossa come up short at the end. His desire to leave Atlanta and take a few pot shots on the way out didn't sit too well with me. Seeing him sitting against the boards in disbelief as his team fell short didn't bring me one ounce of pain. He'll get his big payday this summer because he is a very effective player. I just hope that the assets Atlanta got in return can somehow make up for the pain/grief he cause here last season.

The Wings put on quite a display throughout the playoffs and left little doubt that they were the best team this season. Zetterberg finally got the recognition he deserved and showed why I picked him as an MVP candidate prior to the season. I guess my signals were just a little crossed as he came home with the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) instead. Two other players certainly deserved mention for the Conn Smythe, Osgood and Franzen. Osgood was a savior of sorts, relieving Hasek and bringing with him a sense of calm the permiated the team and got them back on track. Franzen, even though he missed a handful of games with concussion symtoms, lead all players in playoff goals continuing the hot streak that started in March. He'll be a major force for the Wings for the next several years and I'm predicting here he'll subplant Holmstrom on the top unit next fall.

Those Wings couldn't have done it alone though. Their defense was incredible, completely shutting down Pittsburgh and others while contributing on the scoring sheet. Lidstrom's effort goes without saying and Rafawski wasn't far behind. Stuart and especially Kronwall raised their level of play once the playoffs began. The defensive play of forwards like Datsyuk, Samuelsson, Draper, Helms, Cleary and more played a critical role. Babcock has created a very sound, disciplined unit that plays as a team better than any other. I'm anxious to see what he can do with even more talent coming up through the system.

Enough gloating about the team. Time to gloat about my predictions again. First, I picked Detroit to win the President's Trophy and Stanley Cup way back in early October. Then, I stayed with that pick as the playoffs began. Although these might seem like the picks of a homer, I don't always pick with my heart. If I did the Thrashers would have been cup finalists. In fact, I hadn't picked the Wings to be in the cup finals for a few seasons. Based on last years playoffs, I had a feeling things were headed in the right direction.

Detroit #1 vs Pittsburgh #2
PREDICTION : Detroit in 7
Confidence : 55%
RESULT : Detroit in 6

Best Observation : "Detroit has two super forwards to counter with in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Although not the marketing magnets that Crosby is, both are just as skilled or more so. In fact, both of these players are also excellent defenders, a level above the likes of Crosby and Malkin." - Zetterberg's play on a 5 on 3 penalty kill cemented his place as an NHL elite player. Malkin was a non-factor.

Bad Observation : "Intangibles - Edge Pittsburgh" - The biggest intangible was the experience factor. How I could overlook this one is beyond me. Had I given proper respect, my confidence would have been higher.

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A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55
Return : 110
Profit : 55
Rate of return : 55/55 = 100%

Playoffs
Bet : 1015
Return : 1440
Profit : 425
Rate of return : 41.9%

Alright. That does it. Next year I'm betting these for real. Of course, that'll be the season the Thrashers upset Pittsburgh, Edmonton sweep Detroit and Phoenix ousts the Sharks.

You'd think there'd be time for some rest now that the season is complete. I'll rest when I'm dead. Free agency is in a week and I've got a few opinions on what the Thrashers should do to fix their mess and get back into the playoffs.

Crimson's Bathroom - Complete

This one went a lot smoother than the master bedroom and turned out a bit better. I learned a lot from the first go around and those lessons resulted in easier wallpaper removal, less drywall repair, better dust control and better taping.

Crimson was thrilled with the final results. She no longer has to stare at blue and fishes as she washes her face, cleans her teeth or styles her hair.

This picture is of the shower / toilet area.

Cooper Creek Hike

This hike was distinctly different than recent ones. I was looking for a less travelled trail and that is exactly what I got. Although well marked and easy to follow, it was pretty obvious that few hikers come to this trail, especially the rear section. Most of the trail was single track with plenty of overgrowth. Since I never saw another person during my entire 2 1/2 hours of hiking, it made for great setting. Although there were no vistas or waterfalls to see, the terrain itself was fairly interesting.

Having heard/read the warnings of black bears, I took them fairly seriously. The last thing I wanted was to have confrontation with one of these huge animals. I made sure to be fairly vocal and keep my eyes and ears open. However, that didn't stop me from being surprised by two hogs. These aren't your friendly domestic pigs. Pretty damn scary actually. They were quite big and moving fast. By the time I was able to spot them, they were already 200 feet away. Wish I could have got a picture but they weren't sticking around for a photo op.

The trail itself had enough uphill sections to be a nice workout. It breaks from the deep woods for a small section that follows a forest road. He's a shot along that road.

Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

Finally, after near 100 games each between the regular season and the playoffs, we are down to two teams chasing the greatest trophy in sports. What happened in the regular season is barely a memory and even the first round on the playoff feels like ages ago.

The final two participants is no surprise to me. Back a the beginning of the playoffs, I predicted a Wings vs Penguins matchup in the final. In fact, I picked the Wings since the beginning of the season. Both teams had their share of ups and downs. The Penguins got off to a slow start and suffered and injury to their leader, Crosby and their goalie Fluery. But Malkin and Conklin step up big time and helped the Penguins get to the playoffs. The Wings suffered through a 10 game losing stretch when 4 of their defensemen were out but ended the season recapturing the winning ways so frequent in the first half.

Both teams steamrolled playoff opponents. Although both suffered minor setbacks, they never trailed in any series. They typically out shot and outworked opponents and had big contributions from secondary players. Both teams look to be worthy contenders for the big prize.

As a Red Wings fan, the matchup with Pittsburgh scares me more than any matchup so far. Pittsburgh's got a ton of offensive firepower and they are playing strong team defense in front a young confident goalie. From my perspective, the series could go either way. The one thing I really don't expect is a short series. A sweep could happen by either side but I'd put the chance of that at less than 5%.

I'm not going to let me fear keep me from predicting what I've been predicting since the beginning of the season.

Detroit #1 vs Pittsburgh #2
PREDICTION : Detroit in 7
Confidence : 55%

How'd I come up with that prediction? Let me break it down a bit.

Forwards - Edge Pittsburgh - With Crosby, Malkin and Hossa have a powerful trio. A good combination of playmakers, strength with the puck and pure finishers. They can dazzle with skill or scrap it down low. On top of that Pittsbugh has more than its share of secondary scoring from guys like Malone, Staal and Roberts. Detroit throws has two super forwards to counter with in Zetterberg and Datsyuk. Although not the marketing magnets that Crosby is, both are just as skilled or more so. In fact, both of these players are also excellent defenders, a level above the likes of Crosby and Malkin. The Wings have decent secondary scoring but their prime-time chip, The Mule (Franzen) will be out for at least one contest with concussion like symptons.

Defense - Edge Detroit - Detroits top four are probably the best in the league. They carry the puck and start the offense better than any on the Pittsburgh roster. Add to the highly recognizable Lidstrom/Rafalski a healthy Kronwall bringing the big hits and chipping in points and the trade deadline acquisition Stuart. These four are better than anything the Pens can put out there. Although Gonchar can look impressive at times, I seriously doubt he'd crack the top 4 in Detroit. Detroit other forwards are also play great defense, something the Pens may have difficulty matching.

Goalie - Even - Two goaltenders at opposite ends of their respective careers but playing similar games. Both are cool, calm and collected and aren't easily frazzled. Osgood relieved Hasek and the team never looked back. While he doesn't face as many shots as Fluery, he makes the big save when called upon. Osgood has more experience playing at this level having won a cup before in 1998 and Fluery has been extraordinary this post-season. Both have sound technical skills and play the puck with confidence. Should either falter, adequate backups are available.

Power Play - Edge Pittsburgh - Getting all three of those super forwards on the ice at one time makes for a pretty scary power play and thus a notch better than the Wings. But the Wings have more scoring prowess from the blue line so they aren't far behind. Detroit has two of the best front of the net players in Holmstrom and hopefully Franzen. If Fluery and the Pens can't deal with them, this edge will push back Detroits way.

Penalty Kill - Edge Detroit - When you have great defense and nearly ALL your forwards are good defenders, you'll have an excellent penalty kill. While Crosby and Malkin are taken off the ice when their team is down a man, Zetterberg and Datsyuk stay out there. Not only does that limit opponents opportunities but it creates scoring opportunities for Detroit. Short-handed goals are a real threat in Detroit. Although Pittsburgh has many of the same qualities in ex-Thrashers Hossa and Dupois, those qualities don't run as deep as they do in Detroit.

Coaching - Edge Detroit - I'll say it. Babcock is the best coach in a league full of many good coaches. When critics around the league predicted a fall by the Wings, Babcock retooled the roster to be more physical, hard-working and defensive minded. He preached defense as a way to create offense and did it without stifling the skills of Zetterberg or Datsyuk. He dealt with Osgood replacing Hasek in the perfect way and integrated Stuart into a lineup with hardly skipping a beat. He isn't afraid to juggle lines or to roll all four to wear down opponents. He's been to this level before and knows what it takes to win.

Intangibles - Edge Pittsburgh - The pressure is on Detroit a bit more because they start at home and are expected to win the cup. All Pittsbugh needs to do is win one in Detroit to create some nice momentum. Although many of the penalties are deserved, there are times when it looks like the league is out to protect Crosby and his marketing image above all else. The refs haven't exactly been friendly to the Wings duo that works so hard in front of the net.

That's it I can't think of any more to add. Now get out your cell phone, call Guido and put down 5 clams on the Wings. Just do it knowing, I'll erase all traces of this post if things go bad.

Duke Creek Falls Hike

After walking the Raven Cliff Falls Hike, I still had plenty of energy so I decided to hit another hiking spot less than 2 miles away. This hike was shorter but a bit more challenging than the last simply because the grade was steeper. The trail itself was very wide, level and well maintained. In fact, there were steps with rails along the first 1/3 of the route.

The trail did a series of long switchbacks leading down a mile to the base of spectacular falls which dropped 250 feet. It was a view well worth the hike. After doing this hike at a fairly quick pace, I was definitely worn out for the day upon my return to the top. The hike took about 45 minutes total including a couple quick pictures.

Raven Cliff Falls Hike

Off for another hike in the North Georgia mountains. After a bit of debate I decided to do a 2 1/2 hour hike on this day because I wanted to do this location when there were less people around. I had the Friday off of work before the Memorial Day weekend so I hit the road around 9:30.

The Raven Cliff Falls hike follows a creek throughout its journey and feature many flat areas that make for excellent camping sites just off the beaten path. The stream features numerous small falls, a couple of medium falls and one really nice falls has created a huge chasm in the surrounding rocks.

This particular hike was described as "moderate" but I found it to be rather easy. The only tricky part was the last 60 feet that required some careful steps to ascend to the best view of the great falls.

Georgia Aquarium

Took another trip to the Georgia Aquarium. It was my third trip since it opened and although nothing has changed, it was still enjoyable. It's a great place to take out of town visitors and/or kids.

The featured fish is the large whale shark.

Here's Mom and Crimson seated outside the aquarium with a small piece of Atlanta's skyline in the background.

More Wallpaper Fun

With the master bathroom now behind me, it was time to start in on Crimson's bathroom. She's a little tired of the fish wallpaper and frankly it doesn't match her bubblegum pink walls. So down with the wallpaper and up with the paint.

Much like the master bathroom, Crimson's bathroom had two layers of wallpaper to remove. In fact, there was a third layer used as border. Here's a look at the before pictures.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3 Review

We know bid ado to the Stars and Flyers as they head to the golf course and make way for what should be a very entertaining Stanley Cup final. First, a review of the last rounds' predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. " - This and many of my other statements were spot on. Philly never managed to establish much momentum in the series and was beat by a stronger team.

Bad observation : "The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe." - Except for game 5 Philly's offense didn't find much flow and never put much pressure on the Pittsburgh defense that was strong and stready. I probably should have predicted a shorted series but I thought Pittsburgh's defense would face a bit more of challenge.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%
RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation: "I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. " - I think we saw all this play out in the series. Detroit simply had too much talent for Dallas to matchup against consistently night after night. Zetterberg and Datsyuk killed the Stars and Detroits penalty killing prowess erased any Dallas advantage.

Bad observation : Any observation about the "Mule" while perhaps accurate was pretty much moot as the Mule didn't play at all in the series.

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Winners in both series. Exact number of games in the Detroit series

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 80 + 80
Return : 160 + 160
Profit : 160
Rate of return : 160/160 = 100%

Playoffs
Bet : 960
Return : 1330
Profit : 350
Rate of return : 36.5%

Maybe I should quit my day job and become a full-time hockey gambler. Are there any summer leagues or Southern hemisphere leagues I can track after the finals?

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 3

Here we are only a day a way from the conference finals. Two somewhat surprising teams await two very skilled teams in what should be some very interesting matchups. Much of the spotlight will be on the teams from Detroit and Pittsburgh and rightfully so. However, Philadelphia and Dallas shouldn't be overlooked as the both played very good hockey to get to this point.

Without further ado, I now present my predictions. Feel free to quote these fine points on your way to your bookie. Just don't expect me to back you up when you lose your home based on the information contained within.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
PITTSBURGH #2 vs PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - Confidence 80%

Let's face it, few expected Philadelphia to make it this far. Even though I might have predicted it, I never expected the relative ease with which Philly accomplished it. Philly has played better with each series and has a shot at pulling off a monumental upset if they can continue to improve. For as well as they've played, they'll have to play even better to get by the Penguins. First and foremost, the defense must tighten up. They cannot afford to continue to allow the opposition to get so many shots on goal. Goaltending will be tested and anything short of a superb performance by Biron will mean a quick end to the Flyers' season. The team must play even more disciplined against at team that has more skill, finesse and strength than the Habs or the Caps and does a much better job of uping the physical play when necessary. Stupid penalties would be the quickest way for the Flyers to dig a hole. Starting on the road could be a huge benefit as I don't think the Igloo is such a tough place to steal a win. All the pressure is on Pittsburgh and that pressure will only mount should they head to Philly with a loss. The power play must continue to prosper against a Penguins' defense that has been much sounder than anticipated. Secondary scoring must continue.

While the Flyers need to play better to win, Pittsburgh must only maintain their high level to reach the finals. I think there is reason to believe many Penguins, especially Crosby, can be even more effective in this series. The Flyers have some difficulty matching up with the multiple skill lines the Penguins can roll. They'll be forced to pick their poison as it is pretty hard to contain both the Malkin and Crosby lines. The Penguins power play can be a difference in the series as I have a feeling the Flyers will give them one too many opportunities. The wildcard with the Pens is on defense and especially in net. While both units have played more than adequate up to this point, they'll now be facing a more formidable offensive foe. Fluery must show he can face the extra challenge and prove he's the one to carry the team forward for years to come.

As with most series, it'll all come down to taking advantage of the other teams mistakes. I simply believe the Penguins have a few more tools to both cause those mistakes and finish the job. Expect the Flyers to come out strong and try to knock the Penguins off their finesse game. How the Penguins respond early could dictate the tempo of the series. The series has the potential to be very exciting with a nice little intra-divisional and intra-state hatred sprinkled in. It's a shame Gagne isn't healthy or the teams would be evenly matched. Regardless of the outcome, the Flyers season is certainly a success to have gotten this far. Of course, one step closer would be even sweeter. Perhaps next year Flyer fans.

WESTERN CONFRENCE
DETROIT #1 vs DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - Confidence 80%

Both these teams are playing at a very high level and the series will probably be decided by the team that can continue to play that way. But both teams have been playing well all season and are anchored by veterans and strong coaches who won't allow a dropoff.

Detroit has found another offensive juggernaut and you can now bow down to "The Mule". Yet another Swede to add to arsenal, Franzen hasn't just been on a tear since the beginning of the playoffs. It all started back at the beginning of March and has resulted in 29 goals over his last 26 games. To get some perspective, Franzen has broken two long standing Wings records held by the great Gordie Howe. First Franzen had 9 game winning goals in March. Then, the Mule had 9 goals in the playoff series against the Avs and that was in only 4 games. His 9 goals were as many as the entire Avs team and included 2 hat tricks. Now the Mule reaps the benefit of playing with the likes of Datsyuk and Zettterberg from time to time but he is also becoming a natural a getting the puck in the net. His 9 goals came from a variety of locations on the ice and using a lot of nice stickwork.

Of course, the Wings production doesn't stop there. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are having a great playoffs and are showing the hockey nation why they are both Selke finalists. With finalists in the Lady Byng (Datsyuk), Norris (Lidstrom) and Adams (Babcock) plus the Jennings (Osgood/Hasek) and President's trophy already in the bad, the Wings could be looking at a lot of hardware in the coming weeks. However, every nominee will tell you it all means nothing unless they bring home the Stanley Cup. For that task they'll need to continue to get production out of players like Draper, Hudler, Cleary, Kronwall and Filpulla. This round will be an even tougher task for Osgood as he likely face more scoring chances. The Wings will do their best to dictate tempo and play to their strengths with puck possession and creative playmaking.

Dallas is no slouch. The fact that they dispatched Anaheim and San Jose speaks for itself. Doing it with such precision and determination makes them a formidable opponent. They don't have a glaring weakness on the roster and they play as unit better than any team in the league. They don't make many mistakes and they've been great at capitalizing when the opponent breaks down. Morrow has shown an uncanny knack for the timely goal and Turco has left his doubters behind. Their special teams are among the best and they work as hard as any team. But is it enough?

I lean towards Detroit not just because of my heart but because I see them as notch better in just about every area. Detroit has more depth and talent on the defensive end. The have more depth and talent on the offensive end. They've got the edge on the power play and the edge in the penalty kill. Babcock is the better coach. About the only area that might be a push is goaltending. However, I think Osgood is playing better than he has his entire career. Turco has yet to get over the hump that is the Detroit Red Wings having a miserable record against them and never had a win in Detroit!

Dallas does have a shot though but it depends on getting a win in Detroit in game 1 or 2. Turco has to stand on his head and Dallas has to take advantage when Detroit's 5th & 6th defenseman are on the ice. Dallas has to hope like hell that the Mule can be cooled off and Dallas certainly can't afford even a single injury. Be patient as hell and wait for their opportunity. Don't get forced into playing Detroit's game. Play for OT and hope for the timely goal.

This series will be a battle for both teams. More of a chess match than the Eastern Conference with undoubtedly better defense and likely a lot of tight games. I don't see Dallas backing down easy, just coming up short.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2 Review

Another round is complete. Really an odd round in that 3 of the 4 matchups saw one team race out to a 3-0 lead. I thought maybe one of the teams would overcome the 3-0 deficit but that scenario came to a screeching halt after a 4 OT marathon in Dallas. There was one dominating sweep, a couple of upsets but no major drama.Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
RESULT - Philadelphia in 5

Good observation : "I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct." - Usually trusting my gut over my brain gets me into big trouble. Not this time.

Bad observation : "I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners." - Montreal never captured any significant momentum in the series and Philly just kept responding when called upon.

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%
Result - Pittsburgh in 5

Good observation : "I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on." - Malkin scores 2 big goals in game 3 which essentially ices the series and Hossa gets 2 goals including the series clincher in OT in game 5. Lundqvist did well but not well enough to offense Pittsburgh's talent. With the exception of the following, just about about all my observations on this series were pretty good.

Bad observation : "I think this series has got the makings of a classic". - The Rangers blew a chance for this series to be a classic when the blew a 3-0 lead in game 1.

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Detroit in 4

Good observation(s)

1. "If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick." - Samuelsson scores 2 in game 4 and the Wings sweep.
2. "Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast." - Can I have some jam with my toast?
3. "Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he is certain to face much more pressure." - He didn't play better and look what happened. Has a starting goalie ever been pulled 3 times in a 4 game series?

Bad observation: "Detroit in 6" - I should have had more confidence in what was truly a mismatch. Colorado had been playing over their heads for weeks. Once they faced some real competition they wilted.

SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%
Result - Dallas in 5

Good observation: "San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars" - San Jose played inconsistent and dug themselves a hole which they couldn't overcome against a solid team.

Bad observation: "San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle" - Dallas can match up with anybody. Time and time again hardworking consistent play has beaten out top-talent in Stanley Cup playoff history.

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Winners in 3 of 4. Only the San Jose - Dallas contest played out much differently than I expected. But that series was pretty evenly matched and probably could have gone the other way had Dallas not captured the first two games in the Shark Tank.

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 55 + 75 + 80 + 80 = 290
Return : 110 + 150 + 80 + 0 = 340
Profit : 50
Rate of return : 50 /290 = 17.2%

Playoffs
Bet : 820
Return : 1010
Profit : 190
Rate of return : 23.2%

Time to find a bookie. Screw the 401-K and 529. I'm putting everything on Thrashers to win the cup next year.

De Soto Falls Hike

Time for my next hike, this one in the De Soto Falls recreation area in North Georgia. I picked out a short hike for this trip as I had a busy schedule this particular Sunday. Part of the adventure is this particular trip was just getting there.

When I got within a few miles of my final destination, I encountered a roadblock. Someone had been seriously injured/killed on the road ahead and cops were redirecting traffic. The problem was I didn't know an alternate route to my destination. My iPhone came to the rescue. With the aid of the iPhone and Google maps I was able to find a way around the closed section of road.

I found my first turn with little problem and managed to find the next as well but then things got a bit tricky. At a fork in the road I continued straight since this best matched the map. Unfortunately, the road quickly narrowed into a single lane dirt road with plenty rough patches. I stuck it out for a bit being careful to navigate the rough spots in my low clearance car. I couldn't help but think that I wasn't too many miles from where Deliverance was filmed.

I started to think I was on a long driveway and not on a road. Since I noticed someone behind me, I pulled over a bit at an opening and they assured me I was on the right route. Another 1/2 mile of rough road and I was back on the main highway.

The hike was pretty easy, very "kid-friendly" next to a decent campground. The nice falls at the end of the hikes make for a great reward. The hike splits into two separate paths. One trail leads to the middle falls and one to the lower falls. Both paths follow a nice stream and are well maintained with even a couple benches thrown in for resting. The hike to the upper falls was the easier of the two and only 3/4 mile in length. The hike to the lower falls is less than 1/2 mile but a little steeper. I did the whole thing in just about an hour including the stops at both ends.

Here's a view of the middle falls:

Here's a view of the lower falls:

Crimson's Sports Banquet

Last Monday was the annual sports banquet held at Crimson's school. For each sport, pins are awarded for participation and awards are presented to the Most Valuable Player, Most Improved and Best Sportmanship.

Crimson participated in 4 sports (Volleyball, Basektball, Soccer and Cheerleading) and won the Best Sportsmanship award in 3 of the 4. She took home a boatload of hardware:

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 2

EASTERN CONFERENCE


MONTREAL #1 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%


I want to pick one upset in this round and this is the one. Not a hell of a lot of logic to the pick, just a little gut instinct.


Montreal had their problems against Boston on both the offense and defensive ends of the ice but I'm guessing they get a more consistent effort in round 2 after getting the first round under their belts. Their power play floundered but Philly will likely give them plenty of opportunities to work through it. I expect Montreal to come out flying and try to expose Philly's somewhat shallow defense. A top-level performance out of Biron early will be a key to keeping this series close. Montreal will almost certainly have a couple of lop-sided wins in the contest. The main question will be how the Flyers respond.


The Flyers will look to intimidate in any way possible. Hard checking and disciplined hockey will have to be the norm even more so than in the Capitals series. Getting bodies in front of the young Habs goalie and getting the ugly goals will keep the series close. The power play must continue its high level of performance, a task that'll be much more difficult against the more disciplined Canadiens who play quite well on the penalty kill.


I expect a back and forth series with several momentum turners. The pressure is all on Montreal this series and if the Flyers can pull out a win in Montreal, the young Habs just might cave. Like most series, goaltending will be key. Which Price will show up?


PITTSBURGH #2 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 7 - CONFIDENCE 75%


I think this series has got the makings of a classic. Two up and coming teams loaded with old and new stars. One team with a very good offense and another team with sound defense and excellent goaltending. Neither team has a glaring weakness and each weakness is a strength on the opposing roster. Which team is ready to rise to the occasion and take the next step. The Penguins are almost certain to find themselves in this round for years to come. The Rangers could be at a crossroad with Jagr, Shanahan and defensemen without contracts beyond this season. Will that add extra motivation for the Rangers?


The Penguins are a threat to score with just about every offensive possession. Players like Crosby, Malkin, Hossa, Gonchar make it difficult enough 5 on 5. The Rangers cannot afford to make in 5 on 4. That means a player like Avery will have to control himself. Stupid penalties could be the difference in this series.


The Rangers will play it close to the vest, trying to get the Penguins to play a slow-tempo, hard-hitting affair. A 2-1 game is a much better formula for Ranger success than 5-4 because the Rangers have had difficulties scoring throughout much of the season. The Rangers will need timely goals and they've certainly got the crew for that with Shanahan, Jagr, Gomez and Drury leading the way. But if the Penguins can control that group (notice I didn't say stop), the Rangers will be stressed to find secondary scoring. Fluery needs to handle Avery in front of the net but he can't do it alone. His defense will have to do its work to make sure he isn't a factor.


I think we'll see some close contests and the OTs the Rangers missed in the first round. Will the usual scorers show up in OT or will new legends be born.


I'm going to go with Pittsburgh because I think the Malkin line will give the Rangers fits and the frustration will lead to some powerplay opportunities the Penguins convert. Hossa will be a big factor and finally lose the playoff disappointment label. Lundqvist will stand on his head at times but it simply won't be enough. When it's over both teams will shake hands and the better team will move on.


WESTERN CONFERENCE

DETROIT #1 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


It's turn back the clock time. Forsberg, Sakic, Foote, McCarty, Maltby, Osgood, Lidstrom, Chelios. Screw all that. This is 2008 and I'm not interested in the past. The reality of the situation is that these are distinctly different teams from their last playoff series many moons ago.


Colorado might be trying to relive the past but the Wings have moved on. Fresh blood abounds in Detroit where players like Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall, Franzen and others are looking to make their own mark on Red Wings hockey history.


Detroit is the better defensive team. From the forwards on back they play sound defensive hockey. There were times during the Nashville series where they simply couldn't get the puck past the blueline or get a shot on goal for LONG stretches. The only thing that kept Nashville in the series was a couple mental lapses by an aging Hasek and outstanding goaltending by Ellis. With Osgood taking over in net, they don't have to worry as much. His mind doesn't wander and neither do his legs. The Wings defense feels more confident playing in front of him because they know what to expect. Osgood's all-star season was no fluke. He's been playing his best hockey the last 3-4 years.


Detroit can roll four forward lines and Foote can't be out there for all of them. Look for Babcock to consider splitting up Zetterberg and Datsyuk at some point in the series to exploit the matchup problems it creates. The fourth line played extremely well in the Nashville series and I don't see why that can't continue. If Cleary or Samuelsson get in on the scoring, the series will be over quick. Hudler seems to be coming into his own this post season.


Colorado will be walking a fine line. A lot is invested in keeping Forsberg and Foote in the lineup because without them they are toast. The Wings will recognize this and come after them hard, something Minnesota failed to do for some reason. Stasny cannot afford to have another insignificant series. Theodore must play even better against Detroit than against Minnesota because he's is certain to face much more pressure.


Colorado has done well to make it to this point but I don't think they can play much better. Detroit can play better than they did in round 1. Detroit is leaps and bounds better than Minnesota, especially on the offensive end. Colorado's best chance would be to get to Osgood early and make Babcock put Hasek back in. From there, who knows what'll happen.


SAN JOSE #2 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 80%


San Jose can look scary good at times. The problem is they have long lapses where they simply look ordinary. They cannot afford to continue to play inconsistently against the Stars. San Jose can roll four hardworking lines but at times they struggle to get secondary scoring. The city of San Jose is excited about hosting another playoff round but in the backs of their minds and the backs of the player minds are past failures in getting beyond the second round. They have the pieces in place it is simply a matter of execution and discipline.


Meanwhile, the pressure is off the Stars. They've managed to beat one of the teams many had picked to win the cup and the did it in fairly decisive fashion. An opportunistic team that plays well with the lead as is backed by solid goaltending. Its a team full of role players but few superstars. The Stars best chance is for Turco to play his best, get Zubov healthy and get big performances out of Robiero (sp?), Richards and even Modano. Stealing a game in the Shark tank early would be huge.


San Jose just has too many pieces for Dallas to handle. They've got more offensive power than the Ducks and play a physical yet disciplined game. The key for them is to get their big stars (Thorton, Marleau) involved in the contest and to stay focused throughout the series.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 Review

Whew. The first round is finally over and the Wings have advanced. First round always seems to be the most challenging as teams have to adjust a bit to a new level of play and intensity. Plus, top teams have to deal with the added pressure of meeting lofty expectations. I think that is why you see some significant upsets in round 1 and this year was no different.

Reviewing my picks from Round 1:

MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8 PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%
FINAL RESULT : Montreal in 7

Good observation : "Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans." - Should have given Boston another win for the heart.

Bad observation : "They (Montreal) are fantastic on the power play" - Montreal struggled on the power play almost costing them the series.

--

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7 PREDICTION : Pittsburgh in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Pittsburgh in 4

Good observation : "A tale of two teams headed in different directions" - Those directions continue much to the dismay of the Sens.

Bad observation : None - I was spot on in this series except that Ottawa couldn't muster a single win.

--

WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6 PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%
FINAL RESULT : Philadelphia in 7

Good observation : "The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet...the Caps simply aren't seasoned for playoff play" - They are now officially seasoned for next year.

Bad observation : None - spot on again albeit off by a game.

--

NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5 PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%
FINAL RESULT : New York in 5

Good observation : "the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series" - this problem got even more magnified as New York found a way to get to Broduer.

Bad observation : "I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we see 4 or more" - No OT in the series. Pretty embarrassing performance by the Devils.

--

DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8 PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : Detroit in 6

Good observation : "However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got to wonder if Osgood might be the better choice... Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform" - Babcock made the right move at the right time. Hasek deserved to have his shot and now Osgood gets his.

Bad observation : "I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for" - Note to self, trust what you see, not what you "feel".

--

SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7 PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%
FINAL RESULT : San Jose in 7

Good observation : "This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch." - it was certainly worth staying up late to catch the intensity, speed and drama of this series.

Bad observation : "Goals aren't going to come easy " - games were much higher scoring than I thought. San Jose's 4th goal in game 7 caused a Keenan meltdown that might take Calgary awhile to overcome.

--

MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6 PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%
FINAL RESULT : Colorado in 6

Good observation : "Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series" - How about 3 OT games and 2 one goal games.

Bad observation : "Above all else they (Minnesota) are a sound defensive team" - not sound enough in this series.

--

ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5 PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%
FINAL RESULT : Dallas in 6

Good observation : "The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run." - Ducks never recovered from the penalties that cost them games 1 & 2. Pronger didn't watch from the press box but he did watch the end of the series from the penalty box!

Bad observation : "The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars." - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

-----------------------------------------

I picked winners in 6 of 8 series. One of the two I got wrong (Avs vs Wild) had my lowest confidence rating so that wasn't a bit surprise. Only the Ducks-Stars outcome really threw me for a loop.

Taking the confidence factor into account:

A hypothetical bet of $100 per confidence point at 1:1 odds :

Bet : 90 + 85 + 75 + 60 + 85 + 55 + 80 = 530
Return : 180 + 170 + 150 + 170 + 0 + 0 = 670
Profit : 140
Rate of return : 140 / 530 = 26.4%

I'd take a 26.4% return on my money any day, especially now. Of course it'd be pretty tough to find 1:1 odds on all those series unless you can find a homer who'll always bet his team even up regardless of odds.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results. But if you are looking for some betting tips, stay tuned for the next installment.

Cowback Mountain Hike

After literally years of thinking about it, I finally decided I'd take advantage of some great hiking in my "backyard". Half inspired by numerous hikes in Yosemite last spring and half inspired to find another way to get outside exercise, I bought a nice guidebook to hiking in North Georgia. There we lots of good suggestions in the book with many hikes within 2 hours of my house.


I picked the Cowback Mountain from Hogpen Gap hike because it was relatively close, 2 hours long and moderately difficult. I had originally intended to go the previous weekend but scuttled that plan at the last minute when forecast called for showers, cold and wind. Although I had the gear to handle the inclement weather, I didn't want to start off with a hike that would keep me from doing it again. This weekend the weather was perfect with highs in the mid 60s, a nice cool breeze and mostly sunny skies.


I loaded up the iPod with music and hit the road "early" Sunday. The directions in the book were great and I had no trouble finding the trail head. Overall the hike was 3.6 miles long and took about 2 1/2 hours round trip. Although from end to end it was only a 800 foot climb, numerous ups and downs made for a challenging hike. To my surprise there were numerous other people on the trail. I ran into about a dozen other hikers ranging from day hikers like myself to ones who'd been on the trail for weeks. The hike on was just one small section of the Appalachian Trail that stretches from Georgia to Maine.


I took a couple pictures along the route. The first offers a view of my destination.



The second is a view from atop the mountain. I was delighted to see a cairn (rock pile) upon my arrival at the top since they'd been such a prominent feature on my Iceland trip.

Pictures were a little bland because most of the area is just starting to bloom. All in all I'd have to consider the hike a success and I'll certainly be headed out for more soon. My biggest surprise from this trip was the sunburn I received on the ride home with top down.

Master Bathroom - Complete

The work has been done for a couple weeks. Just now getting around to uploading the final picture. The project took a great deal of time, mostly because the multiple layers of wallpaper were a bit of a pain. I learned a bunch, mostly that I need to be patient when removing wallpaper. Although I've spend hours cleaning up drywall dust, there is still more grit to remove. I'm pausing a bit to tackle other tasks before beginning similar work on Crimson's bathroom.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1 - West

DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%

As a Wings fan, I'm pretty happy about this matchup. It isn't that I think Nashville will be a pushover. In fact, I think it will be a very difficult series. What I am thrilled about is Nashville is short plane ride from Detroit and road games will be start around 7PM my time instead of 10PM. You may be asking yourself, why is travel time such a big deal? Consider this. Last year the Wings had matchups with Calgary, San Jose and Edmonton. That's a lot of miles. It is especially significant when compared against teams from the East. For example, the New York Rangers could have travel plans involving New Jersey (bus ride), Philadelphia (bus ride) and Pittsburgh (short flight) all within the same time zone. Plus, those 10PM starts are brutal for me. One year the Wings played a triple overtime game against the Ducks. That game didn't end until almost 3AM. Makes it a bit tough to get up for work and actually think. If the Wings are going to reach the finals, there is going to be some travel involved. However, the less the better.

Detroit has a had a weird season jumping out to such a huge lead on the division and conference before faltering a bit during an 11 game stretch where they had injuries to their top 4 defensemen. They haven't had a significant game since early January. The players admitted that this has made it hard to stay focused for each contest. However, I think they have still played excellent hockey overall. During the course of the entire season they only had about 4 poorly played games. Its a huge credit to coach Babcock and the leadership on this team that they play hard every night.

The Wings have a solid defensive corp that stacks up with any unit in the league. The main reason Hasek and Osgood had such good GAA is because the defense in front of them allows very few shots and scoring chances. Looks like Stuart will return to the lineup making the defense even better. He brings a physical presence the Wings will definitely need in the coming weeks. Lidstrom and Kronwall both are threats to end up on the scoring sheet.

Up front the Wings have multiple scoring options. Beyond the superstars in Zetterberg and Datsyuk, they've got Holmstrom, Holmstrom II (Franzen), Hudler, Cleary, Filpulla who can all score. They are a few concerns about injuries but most appear to be getting healthy as the playoffs begin. Almost all the forwards are excellent on defense and the team has the best faceoff percentage in the league.

To all the critics who say the Wings are too old or too soft, I say you need to take a fresh look. This isn't the 2003 Wings any more. The age statistic is more than a bit skewed by the presence of Chelios (#6 defenseman), Drake (4th line) and Hasek. Their two superstars up front are still young and they've got an even younger crew coming into their own. Softness was the first thing Babcock addressed after losing out to Edmonton in his first season and he's done quite well. People may not know players like the "mule" (Franzen), Cleary or Samuelson but they are extremely hard works and aren't afraid to fight for the pucks or get a little "dirty".

The Wings have a deeper squad than any team in the playoffs. They can role 4 good lines without concern. Should injuries occur, there are tested players in waiting set to fill the holes. Many of the players who'll be healthy scratches would be playing on other rosters. Their backup goalie may actually be the better goalie this season.

Speaking of goaltending, that may just be the critical piece to the Wings success. Even with limited shots, the Wings goalies are going to have to perform well to succeed. Babcock appears set to got with Hasek for the duration and it is hard to blame him given Hasek's past playoff performances. However, Hasek has been a bit sketchy lately and I've got wonder if Osgood might be the better choice. Hasek is a fierce competitor and wouldn't accept the backup role quietly so it is certainly easier to go with him first. But Babcock shouldn't hesitate to turn to Osgood if Hasek suddenly can't perform. I have a feeling Hasek will be just fine as this is the time he's been waiting for.

Oh, there is another team scheduled to be on the ice. Nashville has done an amazing job dealing with the overhaul of their roster in the last year. They should be commended for actually making in into the playoffs. They play very sound, disciplined hockey and have excellent coaching and a lot of hard-working, gritty players. They'll be best served to be extremely patient with the Wings and hope to cash in on the few miscues the Wings allow. Any chance of staging an upset rests with their ability to shutdown Zetterberg and Datysuk while getting superb goaltending. A fast start and a game 1 victory might be their only hope. They'll play the Wings tougher than expected but come up short because the Wings have much more depth and better secondary scoring.

SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%

At the time of this writing, the first game in this series has been played and Calgary won it 3-2. The results of that game do not change my prediction or my analysis even if they do bode well for Calgary.

This may be one of the most entertaining series to watch. Its got everything that makes hockey fun to watch. You've got offensive stars with Calgary's Iginla and San Jose's Joe Thorton. You've hard hitting punishing checkers led by Calgary's Dion Phaneuf. Both teams feature superb workhorse goaltending with Kiprosoff and Nabakov. The men behind the bench, Keenan & Wilson, are among the more experienced in the NHL. You've got two clubs that have seriously underperformed in the last few playoff years with fans ready to get ugly if things don't turn out well. This is especially true in San Jose where a quick exit could result in Wilson getting fired despite several successful regular seasons and a well developed roster.

The intensity here should be amazing and game one didn't disappoint. Goals aren't going to come easy and neither team is going to go down easy. The goalie who performs best may just dictate the outcome as Kiprosoff did in game 1.

Where I think San Jose will prevail is scoring depth. Calgary doesn't have the secondary scoring that San Jose can roll. Adding defenseman Campbell at the trade deadline should give the Sharks an added dimension on the back end. Any chance Campbell has of sticking around San Jose for the long haul will depend on a successful playoff run.

Anything less than an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals will be seen as a disappointment in San Jose. That is tough expectations and one only two other teams face (Anaheim & Detroit). But both those teams have already won the cup in recent years and know what it takes to get over the hump. The journey begins with a tough matchup for San Jose and it won't get any easier. It should be a fun ride to watch.

MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%

As of this writing, game 1 in the series has been played with Colorado winning 3-2 in overtime. Certainly an outcome that was no surprise to me.

I haven't seen many of Minnesota games this season but I know their reputation. Above all else they are a sound defensive team. The play a style of hockey very similar to the neutral zone trap crap that New Jersey play to success for so many years. It makes for an extremely boring watch as scoring chances are minimized and 2-1 and 3-2 games are the norm. Minnesota tries to balance their defense with some timely scoring from skilled players like Gaborik. Along Gaborik has been given some additional freedom to be creative this year, he doesn't wander far from the Wild's defensive roots.

Colorado plays opportunistic hockey taking advantage of skill offensive playmakers and relying on strong goaltending over defense. This has been a problem at times for them this season as playmakers have been injured or their goalies have struggled. However, goaltending has been much stronger lately as Theodore has refound the form that made him successful years ago in Montreal and it is about time as he was being paid a bundle to ride the bench until this season. With Sakic, Stasny and a healthy Forsberg (for now) Colorado certainly has a chance to pull the Minny upset but I think Minnesota's boring approach will get them to the second round. Expect a lot of low scoring games and a few OTs in this series. Colorado biggest advantage may be their crew of timely goal scorers. Sakic, Smyth, Forsberg and even Foote have been know get a goal when it is most needed. How many will they produce in this round?

ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%

I could tell you to look at my description for the New Jersey / New York Rangers series as there are a bunch of similarities. Both teams are centered around defense first and I expect we'll see a lot of low scoring affairs and a couple OTs. However, I think this series will have a little bit more excitement because both teams have more potential to open it up a bit as well as be a bit more physical. The goaltending isn't up to the level of their Eastern counterpart but it's no slouch.

A big issue in this series will be a couple key injuries. Zubov's continuing problems are a huge issue for Dallas who desperate needs his contributions on both ends to have much of a chance. Ducks have their own issues up front with injuries and need to find consistent secondary scoring.

The monster trade that was supposed to help Dallas up front hasn't had much affect. Richards must find a way to contribute or Dallas's journey will be short. Turco must continue to carry the load for Dallas and be spectacular in the series to advance. The Ducks have been playing better down the stretch and Dallas has gotten worse. This doesn't bode well for the Stars.

The Ducks need to play that patient game and stay out of the penalty box. Pronger cannot continue his cheap-ass tactics or he'll find himself watching from the press box while his teams hopes fade for another cup run.

CONCLUSION

I guess I'd be a remissed if I didn't offer up a Stanley Cup winner before the whole thing begins. I went with Detroit over Ottawa preseason and I'll stick with Detroit. They are improved at most positions over last season. I really can't go with Ottawa any more. I'll go with Penguins out of the East, another team that would make for a great finals. I like the makeup of their team and I'm simply not sold on Price in Montreal or that the Rangers can score consistently enough to advance far.

I like to pick a couple "dark horses" as well. I don't think the Rangers qualify as a Dark Horse in the East despite being the #5 seed. I'll go with Philly in the East and Calgary in the West (Kiprosoff becomes superhuman). These two teams are serious longshots consider the road they'll likely have to follow but they do have a lot of the tools necessary.

NHL Playoff Predictions - Round 1

Another NHL season has come to conclusion. While the league had a ton of drama heading into the final weak of the season, the two teams I root for, Atlanta & Detroit haven't played a meaningful game in months. That's all about to change, at least for Detroit, as the second season begins!

Because there wasn't much drama in Atlanta or Detroit, I found myself watching a lot more hockey involving other teams this season. The only teams I didn't catch a lot of were the teams way out West that seem to have 80% of their games end around 1AM my time. But I already know those teams fairly well as the Wings have tussled with them in recent playoffs.

For history buffs (6 months is consider ancient history on the Internet), I did make preseason predictions. A lot of those were spot on. My prediction for the finals (Detroit-Ottawa) look a little shaky but a lot of the team-by-team were pretty good.

I'll start with Eastern Conference which features a ton young offense stars, an original six matchup, a bunch of penguins and a chicken.

Note about CONFIDENCE : This is represents how confident I feel that I've predicted the series winner, not the number of games. I'll be using this to score my predictions after the round is complete.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

MONTREAL #1 vs. BOSTON #8
PREDICTION : Montreal in 6 - CONFIDENCE 90%

Nothing quite like an original six matchup. Two teams with a storied history matching up for the upteenth time in playoff history. A bit of the luster is off this matchup as both the Boston Garden and Montreal Forum (orignal) are no longer the venues but the diehard fans remain and it should create a fantastic atmosphere.

Montreal completely fooled me in that I never thought they'd get so high so quick They did it by simply playing the most consistent hockey among a bunch on inconsistent teams in the Eastern Conference. A good combination of skilled offensive players and steady defenders in front of young up and coming goaltender. They are fantastic on the power play and Boston would be well served to play a patient game.

Boston has overperformed a bit this season and the fact that they made the playoffs has to be considered a success. If this team was in the Eastern Conference, they'd be playing golf or changing diapers at this point. The only way they steal the series is if they get superb goaltending out of Tim Thomas and somehow rattle Montreal's young goalkeeper, Price.

Logic tells me Montreal will win it in 5 but give Boston an extra win for their heart and hometown fans.

PITTSBURGH #2 vs. OTTAWA #7
PREDICTION : Pittsburg in 5 - CONFIDENCE 85%

A tale of two teams headed in different directions. Honestly, I would have preferred a Pittsburgh-Washington or a Pittsburgh-Philadelphia matchup but this one has a bit of intrigue as well.

Ottawa seemed destined to return to the cup finals at the start of the season. Even as late as mid-January, they looked like a serious competitor. Heatley gets hurt and the team struggles. Heatley returns and the team continues to struggle. The coach gets fired and the team struggles. Goalies bitch and the team struggles. All the while, the players are unconfortably quiet. Only a second to last game beating of providence rivals Toronto keeps the team from falling from the playoffs altogether.

Ottawa has a ton of talent on its roster but just can seem to get it back together. From the outside it looks like are lacking in the leadership department. While Alfredsson is the unquestioned leader on the ice, it doesn't seem like anyone else fills the secondary leadership roles very well. Originally, I though a couple of wins could turn their season back around and make them a real threat in the playoffs. But that never happened and I don't think it'll suddenly happen in the first round.

On the other hand, their opponent appears sets for a long playoff run. Talent abounds on the playoff roster with some of the best skilled players in the game up front in Malkin, Crosby and Hossa. They also got plenty of good role players and couple who can lend a physical presence. However, their key to an extended run has to lie with their goaltending. Fleury is the starter and appears to have bounced back well from the injury that sidelined him for a long stretch. But they can't hesitate to turn over the reigns to Conklin who rescued the team once before.

Any chance Ottawa has depends on them getting off to a fast start and putting up some goals early. Breakdown the confidence of Fleury and make the Penguins turn to Conklin. Rattle Conklin as well and the series could turn. Ottawa might be wise to oepn things up a bit. Play some up tempo hockey. It might sound like the kiss of death against the likes of Crosby and Malkin but I don't think the Pens would expect it or be ready to adjust.

WASHINGTON #3 vs. PHILADELPHIA #6
PREDICTION : Philadelphia in 6 - CONFIDENCE 75%

It seems odd to even type that. Washington went from the bottom of the conference in January all the way up to the #3 seed and Carolina ended up kicked to the curb even though I think Carolina was a better team than Boston and would have had a better chance against Philly. However you look at it though, Washington deserved to be here. Their great play down the stretch was the most consistent in the Eastern Conference and Ovechkin showed everybody why he should be considered the best scorer in the NHL.

The real question is does Washington have enough to make it to the next level. My answer is not yet. Although Washington does have a few playoff veterans, they are few and far between. Much like Pittsburgh last season, the Caps simply are seasoned for playoff play. Even their coach is a relative newcomer to the NHL playoffs and he may find that the motivation and coaching he's been providing won't fair as well against the playoff clubs as it did against the likes of Atlanta, Florida and Tampa Bay.

Philly has been a puzzle. At times they've look like serious contenders and other times they've look closer to last years version. I'm thinking the reality is somewhere in between but they'll have to play more consistent if they hope to make it to the second round. Defense and secondary scoring appear to be their Achille's heel and that is somewhat expected considering how many young guys they are trotting out there on a nightly basis. The big-money free agents are going to have to come up big to give the Flyers a chance and I'm thinking they'll do an adequate job.

Washington's best chance is much like Ottawa's. Shake up Philly's goaltending. Biron doesn't even have to perform poorly. Just get a couple goals past him early due to defensive miscues and the entire organization and fans may go into panic mode. Get the Flyers to turn to Nittimaki and the Caps will win the series. Just a whif of a goaltending controversy will Flyers fans running scared like Rocky from Clubber Lane. I pity the fools.

Flyers need to play this game tight and don't get into a shooting contest. Be patient and wait for their chances. Above all else, contain the Chicken. Let another player score, if necessary. Just don't let Ovie find the twine.

NEW JERSEY #4 vs. NEW YORK RANGERS #5
PREDICTION : New York in 7 - CONFIDENCE 60%

Is there a way both teams can lose? I can't stand either of these teams. Now that New York plays almost the same boring style the Devils have played for years, I like them even less. This is not the contest you tell your hockey newbie fan to watch. Expect a lot of low scoring games with little back and forth action but some great goaltending. I think we'll see at least 2 overtime games in the series and it wouldn't shock me if we same 4 or more. These teams both play it very close to the vest, play sound defense and have coaches who preach defensive responsibility above all else.

The Rangers have been a tough team to predict during the course of the season. For every two good showings, they'd have one bad one. Although Lundqvist has looked superb most to the season, he had one really bad stretch. They can score 4 or 5 goals one night, then go 6 or 7 games scoring 2 or less. Defense can be sound and then allow Montreal to stage a record comeback. Which team will show up for the series?

The Devils always seem to be in this position. Everyone seems ready to write them off and they put themselves into contention for the cup once again. Management has a way off putting together a collection of no-names and making them play great as a unit. As always, Brodeur is there to save the day in goal when things break down.

New York went out in the offseason and got two players to boost the offense up front. Although Gomez and Drury were nothing special in the regular season, this should be their time to shine. I also believe Jagr will finally wake up as he realizes this just might be his last cup run. In contrast, the Devils don't have much scoring outside Parise and Gionta and that'll be the difference in the series. Expect Drury to score at least one game winner for his highlight reel.

If this game goes to a 7th contest. I want to personally smack the first guy who asks Mr. Messier if he has a prediction.

Next up is the Western Conference. Matchups feature the President's Trophy winner (Detroit), defending Stanley Cup champion (Anaheim) and the hottest team in hockey (San Jose). It might not have the offensive star power of the East but it makes up for it with superb defense, experienced goaltending and physical intimidating play. I don't think there is much doubt that the best teams are in the West. The question is will they beat each other up so much and travel so much that they've got little left for the finals.

DETROIT #1 vs. NASHVILLE #8
PREDICTION : Detroit in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%

SAN JOSE #2 vs. CALGARY #7
PREDICTION : San Jose in 6 - CONFIDENCE 85%

MINNESOTA #3 vs. COLORADO #6
PREDICTION : Minnesota in 7 - CONFIDENCE 55%

ANAHEIM #4 vs. DALLAS #5
PREDICTION : Anaheim in 5 - CONFIDENCE 80%

Thrashers Game Report - 03/19/08 - Live - Period 3

Shots are even for a change. Its defense and poor goaltending causing the problems tonight.

More nice work in front of the Canes net results in an almost goal. Someone needs to explain to those in attendance that the puck must go all the way across the line.

Am I the only one who finds it strange that Kovy shares a birthday with 5 astronauts.

6:37 left and the thrashers take a penalty. This one is looking bleak.

Hedberg gives up a rebound straight up and Canes bury the biscuit. This one is over. 5-2

Unsure how to handle a lead in shots on goal, the Thrashers take another penalty to correct the stat.

Oooh garbage goal late. Thrashers toot their horn. Only need to more to tie it up. Unfortunately, that ain't going to happen with 25 seconds left.

Game official over. Final score Carolina 5 - Atlanta 3.

About the only thing I like about this game was the Thrashers success with working the puck down low. For a change I saw some bodies in front of the opponents net and some defensemen pinching in. This needs to become a regular part of their offense if they are going to improve next season.

Thrashers Game Report - 03/19/08 - Live - Period 2

Now its Maiden DVDs. Moving up in the world!

If Hedberg is in goal for the second period, I might just hit the rails.

Hey Sonny Perdue. I know something we can do to save water. Quit making ice in philip in a couple weeks. Maybe that's the real reason this team is tanking it. Damn water shortage is cutting the season short.

Only positive is Thrashers are getting the puck in low around the Canes net

Down low work and nice cycling pays off. Nice pass by Kozlov and Little bangs him home. 3-1

That didn't take long. Another defensive turnover another soft goal. I beg DW to pull Hedberg. Make eye contact with Kari who just shakes his head. 4-1

Thrashers answer quickly as mcCarthy gets one down low. 4-2

If nothing else all the action wakes the crowd and tires my thumb.

Canes take the first penalty of the game and Thrashers have several near misses but can't take advantage.

Canes turn on the PP. Thrashers kill it to keep it 4-2

Thrashers Game Report - 03/19/08 - Live - Period 1

a seven year old signs the anthem and they cant even give her a Thrashers jersey?

4 minutes in goal for Canes. Vabolik on ice but he plays in perfect. Breakdown is Kwiatowski and Kozlovs fault.

Vabiolik makes first error and it costs the Thrashers a goal. Bad clearing attempt. Hedberg also failed on both goals. 2-0

Kovys 50th goal is announced but there is barely recognition. Proof the fans are worn out.

More Maiden CDs to giveaway. Shouldn't we send these to the third world instead?

Another defensive turnover and another Canes goal. Larsen takes a good chunk of the blame but Hedberg allows a sortie. Pull him now. Poor Boris caught on ice again. -3 welcome to Blueland Boris. 3-0

Thank goodness the period is over. The Canes can't score for 18 minutes.

Thrashers Game Report - 03/19/08 - Live - Pre Game

Took Marta down to the game because I was anticipating extra traffic due to tornado cleanup. My first hint that things weren't normal was that the train didn't stop at Peachtree Center. When I finally got off the train I realized why. Dozens of windows from the tall building are no longer there. Additionally, several streets were block off, a fed extra cranes were around and the signage in front of the Philips garage is a twisted mess. Philip Arena itself appears unscathed.

Onto the Thrashers. I don't think I've ever had lower expectations for a game. Its been a long losing season and just about everyone seems to be going through the motions right now including the fans. Since Kovy hasn't given up I'll do my best to do my part. If nothing else perhaps the Thrashers can make the Canes a little nervous about the Caps.

Vabolik makes his pro debut tonight. 6'7" 240 he towers over his teammates. He looked a bit tenative in warmups. I'm guessing he's a bit nervous.

Before games a couple of the displays show Thrasher player notes and stats. Why on earth do they still show last years stats? I'd volunteer my services to keep these a little more up to date. Here's Zhitniks update

Alexei "The Human Pylon" Zhitnik is riding a career high 9 game scratch streak. During this hiatus, he's -8. Available for yardwork, babysitting or dog walking. Contact DW if interested.

Hey there's a "spirit" job fair coming up soon. Is this where I apply for a coaching job?

What is there left to "believe" in? Marketing bet have something new next year. How about "show up at Blueland"

Thrashers Game Report - 03/13/08 - Live - Period 3

Look more parachuting shirts. My neck hurts!

One of the Thrashers most physical games all season. Too bad they don't play like this every night.

Stop the presses. Atlanta outshooting Calgary 24-23. Direct result of more physical play.

Crowd loves the Kiss Cam. I think it needs to follow Zhitnik out of town. Give away more Maiden CDs.

Thorburn gets open on the wing, uses his great speed and breaks in on net. Great deke and he buries the puck. 4-4!

4 minutes left and Kovalchuk makes an ill-advised no-look pass across the ice at the Thrashers blueline resulting in a turnover. However, Kovy and others are quick to react and retrieve the puck with some hard play in the corner. They move the puck up ice with Kovy carrying it into the Flame's zone. With Calgary players moving toward the dangerous Kovalchuk, Holik gets open up the middle. Kovy nails him with a nice pass and Holik buries the puck from the slot. The crowd erupts as the Thrashers take the 5-4 lead.

A minute remains and the Flames take a penalty. They pull the goalie in a desperate attempt to score but never get possession of the puck. Atlanta wins the faceoff near mid-ice and Kovy is all alone headed towards the empty net. An easy tap-in a hats come raining down on the ice. 3 goals and an assist for the future captain.

Easily one of the best Thrasher games of the season. Although they started out on the short end of the scoresheet, they battled hard all night and were able to overcome it. A fine performance. Makes you wonder where that energy has been all season.

Special props to the couple seated behind me who helped me put the Calgary fans in their place.

Must have been Babes at the Bulb night. There were a ton of gorgeous ladies in the building. Here's hoping the great action brings them back for more.

Thrashers Game Report - 03/13/08 - Live - Period 2

Google is doing maintenance in a few minutes so this may come to an abrupt end.

TWO Iron Maiden CD giveaways. Where on earth did they uncover these ancient relics. Is it Recchi's closet?

Maybe 8000 in the stands tonight.

I swear Thrash has more outfits than me. Tonight its an Irish zoot suit. Not sure who his silver and green buddy is supposed to be.

Thrashers outshot 11-5. No suprise there.

Thrashers take a penalty, kill it but can't clear the puck. Iginla scores and it is 3-0

Nice outlet pass to a wide open Holik results in breakaway. Holik can't put in but Kovy finishes it. 3-1

Quick play off faceoff an Perrin breaks in shoots and Armstrong buries rebound. Suddenly back in it. 3-2. Quiet crowd is suddenly abuzz.

Christensen makes a bad play at the point and calgary puts it past Kari. 4-2

Good hard play by the Thrashers draws a penalty and Kovy gets another one of slapshot goals. Alive at 4-3.

Stat of the period. Dump ins ATL 1 for 6, CGY 4 for 5

Thrashers Game Report - 03/13/08 - Live - Period 1

Thought I might try something a little different by live blogging comments as the game takes place.
It's just a few minutes before faceoff and the arena is quiet. No more than 2000 intheir seats.

Thrashers are auctioning off their green St. Patricks Day jerseys tonight. Wonder how much for a Zhitnik? Probably about as valuable as a Ross Perot for president bumper sticker.

There are five Calgary fans right in front of me. Maybe I should have worn my Wings jersey. If I don't make it home, blame them.

The guy just to the right of me has a Mike Dunham green jersey. I think that's worse than a Zhitnik.

Less than 3 minutes in Boulton and Bodars square off in nice fight. The keep their throughtout and each lands shots.

Thrashers doing a much better job fighting for pucks
in the corner against a much bigger Calgary team. Still having difficulty transitioning from
defense to offense.

First penalty goes to Calgary. Goaltender interference

Enstrom has bad turnover at the blueline resulting in easy goal for Calgary

Shot from the point finds Iginla alone in front of net. Nice tip in goal.